HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDA110112.pdf.pdf
Please refer to pages 6-7 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information.
* D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security.
Institutional Equity Research
IDACORP, Inc.
November 2, 2012 IDA* – NYSE
Rating: Buy
Price: (11/1/12) $44.80
Price Targets: 12-18 month: ↑$50.00
5-year: ↑$58.00
Industry:
Utilities
Michael Bates
503.603.3045
mbates@dadco.com
Raising Estimates and Target Following Strong 3Q Report
IDACORP reported 3Q'12 GAAP EPS of $1.84, compared to $2.16 in 3Q'11 and
our forecast of $1.50. Results in both quarters were impacted by special items,
including a $0.16 per share benefit from an accounting method change in 3Q’12
and a $1.15 boost from an IRS settlement in 3Q’11. Based on the strength of the
recent quarter, management raised its 2012 EPS guidance range to $3.30-$3.40
(from $3.20-$3.35).
Pre-tax earnings increased ~55% to $34.1 million, due primarily to higher retail
rates, improved cost recovery, the commercial operation of Langley Gulch, and
higher sales volumes. IDA recorded $12 million of income to be shared with
customers in 3Q’12 (IDA’s regulatory construct in Idaho requires 50% of earnings
in excess of a 10.0% ROE threshold to be shared with customers, with sharing
stepping up to 75% when the ROE exceeds 10.5%). 4Q’12 results are expected
to be shared largely with customers, both through revenue sharing and higher
pension funding.
Raising estimates. We are increasing our 2012 forecast from $3.27 to $3.35 to
reflect the positive 3Q variance from our forecast, partially offset by the effects of
customer sharing in the fourth quarter. Our 2013 and 2014 estimates are
increased to $3.35 and $3.40, respectively, to reflect the recent improvement in
IDA’s customer growth rate.
BUY rated. We are increasing our target from $48.50 to $50.00, which equates
to 14.9x our 2013 EPS estimate. IDA’s 10% valuation discount relative to its peer
group is compelling, in light of its top-tier dividend growth trajectory and supportive
regulatory backdrop.
Valuation Data
Long-term growth rate (E) 4%
Total Debt/Cap (9/30/12) 47.3% Cash per share (9/30/12) $0.42 Book value per share (9/30/12) $36.39 Dividend (yield) $1.52 (3.4%) Return on Equity (T-T-M) 39.9%
Trading Data
Shares outstanding (M) 48.6
Market Capitalization ($M) $2,179
52-week range $38.17 - $45.67
Average daily volume (3 mos.) (K) 191
Float 99%
Index Membership S&P 400
FY (Dec) 2011A 2012E Previous 2013E Previous
Revenue ($M) Q1 (Mar) $251 $241 A - $257 n.a.
Q2 (Jun) $235 $255 A - $257 n.a.
Q3 (Sep) $310 $334 A $381 $364 n.a.
Q4 (Dec) $231 $244 E $262 $277 n.a.
$1,027 $1,074 E $1,138 $1,156 $1,172
Price/Revenue 2.2x 2.1x 1.9x
EPS Q1 (Mar) $0.60 $0.50 A - $0.57 n.a.
Q2 (Jun) $0.42 $0.71 A - $0.61 n.a.
Q3 (Sep) $2.16 $1.84 A $1.50 $1.49 n.a.
Q4 (Dec) $0.18 $0.30 E $0.57 $0.68 n.a.
$3.36 $3.35 E $3.27 $3.35 $3.25
Price/EPS 13.3x 13.4x 13.4x
EBITDA ($M) Q1 (Mar) $83 $81 A - $88 n.a.
Q2 (Jun) $65 $93 A - $90 n.a.
Q3 (Sep) $110 $147 A $150 $147 n.a.
Q4 (Dec) $49 $70 E $88 $95 n.a.
$306 $392 E $413 $419 $411
EV/EBITDA 12.2x 9.6x 8.9x
D.A. Davidson & Co.
2
Price Chart
Source: Capital IQ
Company Description:
Boise, ID -- IDACORP, Inc. is the holding company for the Idaho Power Company, an electric public utility that serves an approximate
24,000 square mile area in Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Non-regulated subsidiaries include an affordable housing project
finance company and an operator of small hydroelectric generation projects.
Potential Risks:
Regulatory/Legislative. Changes in the regulatory and/or legislative environment could influence the utility’s business practices,
credit ratings/access to capital markets, rate structure, cost recovery, and ability to achieve adequate returns on its investments.
Economic and weather conditions. The firm’s financial results and operating strategy are sensitive to the economic climate
(including fluctuations in commodity prices) and regional weather conditions (including streamflows).
Project delays or cancellations. Development of the utility’s projects could be delayed or cancelled for numerous reasons.
Interest rates. Access to capital under competitive terms is critical to the company’s capital expenditure programs. Interest rate
increases may also lead to compression in utility stock prices.
Litigation. Electric utilities commonly face legal challenges regarding their electric generating facilities, particularly coal-fired units.
These matters often stretch out over long time periods and can have unpredictable outcomes. In the event an adverse outcome
were handed down, the impact could be significant, despite the firm’s mitigation efforts.
D.A. Davidson & Co.
3
Quarterly Financial Position
Source: Company reports
$ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 2011 1Q'12 2Q'12 3Q'12
Current Assets:
Cash And Cash Equivalents $228.7 $93.9 $58.3 $31.3 $27.8 $8.9 $14.4 $20.2
Receivables from Customers 62.1 66.6 61.7 75.5 66.3 68.2 62.8 80.2
Other Receivables 10.2 13.4 8.1 10.7 8.2 14.1 15.6 20.9
Accrued Unbilled Revenues 48.0 41.6 49.8 49.4 46.4 37.1 60.2 49.9
Materials And Supplies 45.6 45.9 45.7 46.6 46.5 48.4 48.4 48.5
Fuel Stock 27.5 33.6 48.4 49.7 47.9 56.5 59.2 52.6
Prepayments 11.1 9.2 11.0 11.2 12.4 11.3 13.5 13.0
Deferred Income Taxes 10.7 9.5 7.4 3.9 16.2 37.4 46.6 45.8
Other 16.8 23.0 36.3 30.9 39.3 41.4 37.3 34.8
Total Current Assets $460.6 $336.8 $326.6 $309.3 $311.0 $323.3 $358.1 $366.0
Property, Plant And Equipment - Net 3,161.4 3,232.6 3,307.0 3,356.0 3,406.6 3,420.6 3,473.0 3,506.8
Investments 202.9 202.6 198.3 192.3 199.9 196.0 198.1 190.7
Regulatory Assets 756.6 723.9 717.4 880.4 953.1 963.1 979.3 1,049.1
Other 94.5 94.4 93.1 88.9 90.0 87.7 94.5 95.0
Total Assets $4,676.1 $4,590.2 $4,642.3 $4,826.9 $4,960.6 $4,990.6 $5,103.0 $5,207.6
Current Liabilities:0.0 0.0
Long-Term Debt Due Within One Year $122.6 $1.7 $1.7 $1.7 $101.1 $1.1 $1.1 $1.1
Notes Payable 66.9 74.1 66.4 51.5 54.2 63.0 64.7 51.4
Accounts Payable 103.1 64.6 87.0 90.1 100.4 71.3 92.0 93.4
Taxes Accrued 0.0 4.1 22.9 8.8 0.5 2.8 5.5 0.9
Interest Accrued 23.9 23.8 22.3 23.4 21.8 23.4 22.1 23.9
Uncertain Tax Positions 74.4 73.7 56.9 0.0 0.0
Other 58.1 89.3 82.5 79.0 91.2 122.3 111.2 97.5
Total Current Liabilities $449.1 $331.3 $339.7 $254.5 $369.2 $283.9 $296.6 $268.3
Long-Term Debt 1,488.3 1,487.3 1,487.4 1,487.5 1,387.6 1,486.6 1,536.5 1,536.6
Deferred Income Taxes 566.5 577.6 586.9 750.0 772.0 806.5 832.6 877.2
Regulatory Liabilities - Other 298.1 296.8 307.7 332.7 332.1 332.2 333.8 348.2
Pension & Postretirement Benefits 363.2 335.5 341.9 339.3
Other 338.2 #343.7 353.9 341.4 74.8 #71.5 65.1 63.8
Common Equity 1,532.1 1,550.0 1,563.1 1,656.8 1,657.7 1,670.6 1,692.3 1,770.0
Noncontrolling Interest 3.9 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.3
Total Capitalization And Liabilities $4,676.1 $4,590.2 $4,642.3 $4,826.9 $4,960.6 $4,990.6 $5,103.0 $5,207.6
Common Shares Outstanding - End 49.3 49.6 49.7 49.8 49.8 50.1 50.2 48.6
Book Value Per Share $31.09 $31.28 $31.44 $33.29 $33.26 $33.35 $33.74 $36.39
Capital Structure:
Common Equity 47.8% 49.8% 50.2% 51.9% 51.9% 51.9% 51.4% 52.8%
Long-Term Debt 50.1% 47.8% 47.7% 46.5% 46.5% 46.1% 46.6% 45.7%
Short-Term Debt 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5%
Capitalization 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
4
Historical and Forecasted Cash Flow
Source: Company reports and D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates
$ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e
Cash Flow from Operating Activities:
Net Income $124.4 $142.5 $166.9 $167.6 $168.4 $171.4
Depreciation & Amortization 118.6 121.8 124.7 132.0 134.9 138.4
Deferred Taxes And Invest. Tax Credits 19.0 41.7 (52.9) 19.8 0.0 0.0
Change In Regulatory Assets & Liabilities 57.8 46.5 68.0 (24.6)0.0 0.0
Pension Expense 4.0 (65.6) (22.1) 28.7 0.0 0.0
AFUDC - Equity (7.6) (16.6) (25.5) (20.6) (7.6) (10.5)
Distributions from Equity Method Investments 12.5 6.5 2.5 12.4 0.0 0.0
Net Other Items (7.6) 6.9 47.9 (61.4)0.0 0.0
Operating Cash Flows before WC $321.2 $283.8 $309.4 $253.8 $295.7 $299.3
Net Change in Working Capital (36.8) 21.6 0.8 (22.8)0.0 0.0
Net Operating Cash Flow $284.4 $305.4 $310.2 $230.9 $295.7 $299.3
Cash Flow from Investing Activities:
Additions To Utility Plant (251.9) (338.3) (337.8) (230.0) (280.0) (340.0)
Sale Of Emission Allowances 2.4 6.4 6.3 2.7
Investments In Affordable Housing (5.8) (13.4) (1.6) (0.1)
Investments In Unconsolidated Affiliates 0.0 (7.0) 2.6 0.0
Net Other 13.0 23.9 (2.0) (0.1)
Net Investing Cash Flow ($242.4) ($328.3) ($332.4) ($227.5) ($280.0) ($340.0)
Cash Flow Before Financing $42.0 ($22.9) ($22.1) $3.4 $15.7 ($40.7)
Cash Flow from Financing Activities:
Dividends (56.8) (57.9) (59.7) (69.0) (80.3) (92.8)
Net Borrowing 43.3 212.1 (133.8) 65.8 56.5 125.6
Net Equity 22.9 47.8 15.6 4.8 8.0 8.0
Net Other (7.3) (3.4) (0.9) (2.7)0.0 0.0
Net Financing Cash Flow $2.1 $198.6 ($178.7) ($1.2) ($15.7) $40.7
Net Change in Cash 44.2 175.7 (200.9) 2.2 0.0 0.0
Cash & Equivalents - End $53.0 $228.7 $27.8 $30.0 $30.0 $30.0
Cash Flow Metrics:
Operating Cash Flows 284.4 305.4 310.2 230.9 295.7 299.3
Dividends (56.8) (57.9) (59.7) (69.0) (80.3) (92.8)
Retained Cash Flow (RCF) $227.6 $247.5 $250.6 $161.9 $215.5 $206.4
Capex (251.9) (338.3) (337.8) (230.0) (280.0) (340.0)
Free Cash Flow ($24.3) ($90.7) ($87.2) ($68.1) ($64.5) ($133.6)
RCF/Capex -10% -27% -26% -30% -23% -39%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
5
Historical and Projected Quarterly and Annual Operating Results
Source: Company reports and D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates
$ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12 2Q'12 3Q'12 4Q'12e 2012e 1Q'13e 2Q'13e 3Q'13e 4Q'13e 2013e 2014e
Operating Revenues $309.6 $230.6 $1,026.8 $241.1 $254.7 $334.0 $244.0 $1,073.9 $257.4 $257.3 $364.1 $276.9 $1,155.6 $1,180.1
Power Supply Expenses 97.1 78.3 333.4 76.0 63.3 84.7 76.8 300.7 74.8 65.2 109.9 80.9 330.8 331.7
Gross Margin $212.5 $152.4 $693.4 $165.1 $191.4 $249.3 $167.3 $773.2 $182.6 $192.1 $254.2 $196.0 $824.9 $848.4
Operating Expenses:
Other Operations And Maintenance 84.6 97.9 338.6 78.5 86.0 90.0 85.0 339.5 82.8 90.5 93.4 88.3 355.0 367.5
Energy Efficiency Programs 18.5 6.7 37.7 4.5 8.1 8.4 5.1 26.1 5.1 5.1 7.3 5.5 23.1 23.6
Depreciation 30.1 30.5 119.8 30.5 29.9 31.6 33.6 125.6 33.6 32.9 34.0 34.4 134.9 138.4
Taxes Other than Income Taxes 7.3 7.2 28.9 8.1 7.8 7.0 8.0 31.0 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 32.2 32.5
Other Operating Expenses 0.6 1.6 4.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.0
Total Operating Expenses $141.1 $143.9 $529.1 $122.8 $132.6 $138.0 $132.7 $526.1 $130.6 $137.6 $143.7 $137.3 $549.3 $566.0
EBITD $109.6 $49.1 $306.0 $80.9 $93.3 $147.2 $70.3 $391.7 $87.7 $89.5 $146.7 $95.4 $419.3 $432.4
Operating Income $71.4 $8.5 $164.2 $42.3 $58.8 $111.3 $34.6 $247.1 $52.0 $54.5 $110.5 $58.7 $275.6 $282.3
Other Income 6.0 5.6 21.2 6.6 6.6 2.9 1.6 17.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 7.6 10.5
Earnings Of Investments 2.1 4.5 0.8 1.4 (1.9) 1.3 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2
Net Interest Expense 17.4 17.5 71.5 17.2 17.4 19.4 17.9 72.0 18.1 18.4 18.8 18.6 73.9 79.8
Income Before Income Taxes $62.0 $1.0 $114.7 $33.2 $46.0 $96.2 $18.8 $194.2 $36.0 $38.2 $93.9 $42.5 $210.5 $214.2
Income Taxes (45.4) (8.0) (52.1) 8.3 10.6 3.9 3.8 26.6 7.2 7.6 18.8 8.5 42.1 42.8
Effective Tax Rate -73.1% -803.7% -45.4% 25.1% 23.0% 4.1% 20.0% 13.7% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Net Income $107.4 $9.0 $166.9 $24.8 $35.4 $92.3 $15.1 $167.6 $28.8 $30.5 $75.1 $34.0 $168.4 $171.4
Noncontrolling Interest (0.3) 0.0 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
Net Income Available For Common $107.1 $9.0 $166.7 $24.9 $35.3 $92.1 $15.1 $167.4 $28.9 $30.6 $75.2 $34.1 $168.7 $171.7
Average Diluted Shares 49.6 49.7 49.6 49.9 50.0 50.1 50.2 50.0 50.2 50.3 50.3 50.4 50.3 50.5
Diluted EPS - GAAP $2.16 $0.18 $3.36 $0.50 $0.71 $1.84 $0.30 $3.35 $0.57 $0.61 $1.49 $0.68 $3.35 $3.40
Ratio Analysis:
Return on Average Equity (ttm)11.4% 10.5% 10.5% 10.0% 10.7% 9.5% 9.8% 9.8% 9.9% 9.5% 8.4% 9.3% 9.3% 9.0%
Return on Average Assets (ttm)3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1%
EBITDA Margin 35.4% 21.3% 29.8% 33.5% 36.6% 44.1% 28.8% 36.5% 34.1% 34.8% 40.3% 34.5% 36.3% 36.6%
Operating Margin 23.1% 3.7% 16.0% 17.6% 23.1% 33.3% 14.2% 23.0% 20.2% 21.2% 30.3% 21.2% 23.8% 23.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.0% 0.4% 11.2% 13.7% 18.1% 28.8% 7.7% 18.1% 14.0% 14.8% 25.8% 15.3% 18.2% 18.2%
Net Margin 34.6% 3.9% 16.2% 10.3% 13.9% 27.6% 6.2% 15.6% 11.2% 11.9% 20.6% 12.3% 14.6% 14.5%
Dividends Per Common Share $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $0.33 $0.33 $0.33 $0.38 $1.37 $0.38 $0.38 $0.42 $0.42 $1.60 $1.84
Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 33.4% 35.7% 35.7% 37.7% 35.6% 40.0% 40.9% 40.9% 41.5% 44.2% 52.3% 47.6% 47.6% 54.1%
Dividend Growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 26.7% 14.2% 15.2% 15.2% 26.7% 10.0% 16.5% 15.2%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 (503) 603-3000 (800) 755-7848 www.dadavidson.com
Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2012. All rights reserved.
6
Required Disclosures
D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the
next three months.
D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. Michael Bates, the
research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other
factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated
for involvement in specific investment banking transactions.
I, Michael Bates, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the common
stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Ratings Information
D.A. Davidson & Co. Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform
Risk adjusted return potential azbycx
Over 15% total return
expected on a risk adjusted
basis over next 12-18 months
>0-15% return potential
on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months
Likely to remain flat or lose
value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months
Distribution of Ratings (as of 9/30/12) Buy Hold Sell
Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform
and Distribution 57% 41% 2%
Corresponding Individual Investor Group Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform
and Distribution 80% 20% 0%
Distribution of Combined Ratings 57% 41% 2%
Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos.
Institutional Coverage 5% 6% 0%
Individual Investor Group Coverage 0% 0% 0%
Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 5% 6% 0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform
D.A. Davidson & Co.
Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 (503) 603-3000 (800) 755-7848 www.dadavidson.com
Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2012. All rights reserved.
7
Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based
upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria.
Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic
fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends.
Other Disclosures
Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any
action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original
publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in
investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also
remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee,
express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional
Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment
sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the
advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice
before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.