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Institutional Equity Research
IDACORP, Inc.
August 3, 2012 IDA* – NYSE
Rating: Buy
Price: (8/3/12) $42.49
Price Targets: 12-18 month: $48.50
5-year: $56.00
Industry:
Utilities
James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA
406.791.7230
jbellessa@dadco.com
Michael Bates
503.603.3045
mbates@dadco.com
Raising Estimates on Strong 2Q Report. Reiterating BUY.
IDACORP reported 2Q'12 EPS of $0.71, compared to $0.42 in 2Q'11 and our
forecast of $0.51. Based on the strength of the recent quarter, management
raised its 2012 EPS guidance range to $3.20-$3.35 (from $3.00-$3.15).
Net income increased $14.4 million (+69%) for the quarter, largely due to the
favorable impact on electric usage by irrigators from warmer-than-normal
temperatures and below-normal precipitation, as well as hikes in base rates and
adjustment mechanisms implemented on January 1, 2012. Also helping the
earnings comparison were increased earnings from Bridger Coal Company and
higher AFUDC. Partially offsetting these positive factors were higher pension
expenses and the absence of accumulated deferred investment tax credits
(ADITC). Given the high likelihood the utility’s ROE in Idaho will now exceed the
regulatory-approved minimum threshold of 9.5%, management no longer expects
to use any ADITC this year (the previous expectation was to use up to $5 million).
Earnings drivers. We are increasing our 2012 forecast from $3.08 to $3.27 to
reflect the second quarter’s earnings beat. We continue to expect 2H’12 earnings
to benefit from the rate basing of the Langley Gulch power plant (and related
annual rate increase of $58.1 million in Idaho), with additional support from a hot
July (the fourth warmest since 1864). For 2013, we are raising our earnings
estimate to from $3.20 to $3.25 as we refine our model.
Timeline for transmission stretched out. Management indicated that its
proposed 300-mile, 500KV Boardman to Hemingway transmission project planned
for mid-2016 service is unlikely to be completed until 2018 due to an elongated
signing process with partners and permitting process with governmental agencies.
This pushes out a long-term earnings benefit.
BUY reiterated. Our 12-18 month target price of $48.50 equates to ~15x our
revised 2013 EPS estimate.
Valuation Data
Long-term growth rate (E) 5%
Total Debt/Cap (6/30/12) 48.6% Cash per share (6/30/12) $0.29 Book value per share (6/30/12) $33.74 Dividend (yield) $1.32 (3.1%) Return on Equity (T-T-M) 10.9%
Trading Data
Shares outstanding (M) 50.2
Market Capitalization ($M) $2,131
52-week range $33.88 - $43.64
Average daily volume (3 mos.) (K) 215
Float 99%
Index Membership S&P 400
FY (Dec) 2011A 2012E Previous 2013E Previous
Revenue ($M) Q1 (Mar) $251 $241 A - n.a.n.a.
Q2 (Jun) $235 $255 A $241 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $310 $341 E $342 n.a.n.a.
Q4 (Dec) $231 $245 E NC n.a.n.a.
$1,027 $1,082 E $1,068 $1,130 NC
Price/Revenue 2.1x 2.0x 1.9x
EPS Q1 (Mar) $0.60 $0.50 A - n.a.n.a.
Q2 (Jun) $0.42 $0.71 A $0.51 n.a.n.a.
Q3 (Sep) $2.16 $1.50 E NC n.a.n.a.
Q4 (Dec) $0.18 $0.57 E NC n.a.n.a.
$3.36 $3.27 E $3.08 $3.25 $3.20
Price/EPS 12.6x 13.0x 13.1x
EBITDA ($M) Q1 (Mar) $86 $81 A - n.a.n.a.
Q2 (Jun) $69 $96 A $84 n.a.n.a.
Q3 (Sep) $109 $151 E $152 n.a.n.a.
Q4 (Dec) $46 $91 E NC n.a.n.a.
$310 $420 E $408 $454 $450
EV/EBITDA 12.0x 8.9x 8.2x
D.A. Davidson & Co.
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Price Chart
Source: Capital IQ
Company Description:
Boise, ID -- IDACORP, Inc. is the holding company for the Idaho Power Company, an electric public utility that serves an approximate
24,000 square mile area in Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Non-regulated subsidiaries include an affordable housing project
finance company and an operator of small hydroelectric generation projects.
Potential Risks:
Regulatory/Legislative. Changes in the regulatory and/or legislative environment could influence the utility’s business practices,
credit ratings/access to capital markets, rate structure, cost recovery, and ability to achieve adequate returns on its investments.
Economic and weather conditions. The firm’s financial results and operating strategy are sensitive to the economic climate
(including fluctuations in commodity prices) and regional weather conditions (including streamflows).
Project delays or cancellations. Development of the utility’s projects could be delayed or cancelled for numerous reasons.
Interest rates. Access to capital under competitive terms is critical to the company’s capital expenditure programs. Interest rate
increases may also lead to compression in utility stock prices.
Litigation. Electric utilities commonly face legal challenges regarding their electric generating facilities, particularly coal-fired units.
These matters often stretch out over long time periods and can have unpredictable outcomes. In the event an adverse outcome
were handed down, the impact could be significant, despite the firm’s mitigation efforts.
D.A. Davidson & Co.
3
IDACORP, Inc. - Quarterly Financial Position
Source: Company reports
$ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q'12 2Q'12
Current Assets:
Cash And Cash Equivalents $8.0 $8.8 $53.0 $228.7 $27.8 $8.9 $14.4
Receivables from Customers 69.2 64.7 76.8 62.1 66.3 68.2 62.8
Other Receivables 11.0 10.3 13.0 10.2 8.2 14.1 15.6
Accrued Unbilled Revenues 36.3 43.9 51.3 48.0 46.4 37.1 60.2
Materials And Supplies 43.3 50.1 48.1 45.6 46.5 48.4 48.4
Fuel Stock 17.3 16.9 25.6 27.5 47.9 56.5 59.2
Prepayments 9.4 10.1 11.1 11.1 12.4 11.3 13.5
Deferred Income Taxes 25.7 37.6 31.8 10.7 16.2 37.4 46.6
Other Current Assets 46.7 23.9 (0.2) 16.8 39.3 41.4
Total Current Assets $266.7 $266.3 $310.4 $460.6 $311.0 $323.3 $358.1
Electric Plant:
In Service (At Original Cost) 3,796.3 4,030.1 4,160.2 4,332.1 4,466.9 4,476.6 4,843.9
Accumulated Provision For Depreciation (1,468.8) (1,505.1) (1,558.5) (1,614.0) (1,677.6) (1,696.8) (1,676.8)
Electric Plant In Service - Net 2,327.5 2,525.0 2,601.6 2,718.0 2,789.3 2,779.8 3,167.1
Construction Work In Progress 257.6 207.7 289.2 417.0 591.5 614.9 280.2
Held For Future Use 3.4 6.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1
Other Property, Net Of Accum. Depreciation 28.1 19.2 19.0 19.3 18.9 18.8 18.7
Property, Plant And Equipment - Net $2,616.6 $2,758.2 $2,917.0 $3,161.4 $3,406.6 $3,420.6 $3,473.0
Investments 201.1 198.6 195.3 202.9 199.9 196.0 198.1
Regulatory Assets Associated With Taxes 449.7 696.3 720.4 756.6 953.1 963.1 979.3
Other Assets 119.3 ##103.5 ##95.6 ##94.5 ##90.0 87.7 94.5
Total Assets $3,653.3 $4,022.8 $4,238.7 $4,676.1 $4,960.6 $4,990.6 $5,103.0
Current Liabilities:0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long-Term Debt Due Within One Year $11.5 $86.5 $9.3 $122.6 $101.1 $1.1 $1.1
Notes Payable 186.4 151.3 53.8 66.9 54.2 63.0 64.7
Accounts Payable 85.1 96.8 83.8 103.1 100.4 71.3 92.0
Taxes Accured 8.5 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.5
Interest Accrued 18.9 16.7 20.1 23.9 21.8 23.4 22.1
Uncertain Tax Positions 26.8 4.1 0.0 74.4 0.0
Other Current Liabilities 38.1 ##40.3 ##41.1 ##58.1 ##91.2 122.3 111.2
Total Current Liabilities $375.3 $395.7 $218.2 $449.1 $369.2 $283.9 $296.6
Long-Term Debt 1,156.9 1,183.5 1,409.7 1,488.3 1,387.6 1,486.6 1,536.5
Deferred Income Taxes 466.2 515.7 574.5 566.5 772.0 806.5 832.6
Regulatory Liabilities - Other 274.2 276.3 287.8 298.1 332.1 332.2 33.8
Other 168.9 ##344.9 ##347.0 ##338.2 ##438.0 407.0 707.0
Common Equity 1,207.3 1,302.4 1,397.3 1,532.1 1,657.7 1,670.6 1,692.3
Noncontrolling Interest 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.1
Total Capitalization And Liabilities $3,653.3 ##$4,022.8 ##$4,238.7 ##$4,676.1 ##$4,960.6 ##$4,990.6 $5,103.0
Common Shares Outstanding - End 45.1 46.9 47.9 49.3 49.8 50.1 50.2
Total Debt - End $1,354.8 $1,421.2 $1,472.8 $1,677.8 $1,543.3 $1,550.6 $1,602.3
Book Value Per Share $26.79 $27.76 $29.17 $31.09 $33.26 $33.35 $33.74
Capital Structure:
Common Equity 47.2% 47.9% 48.8% 47.8% 51.8% 51.9% 51.4%
Debt (Short-Term & Long-Term)52.8% 52.1% 51.2% 52.2% 48.2% 48.1% 48.6%
Capitalization 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.
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IDACORP, Inc. - Historical and Projected Operating Results
Source: Company reports and D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates
$ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 2011 1Q'12 2Q'12 3Q'12E 4Q'12E 2012E 2013E
Operating Revenues:
Electric Utility:
General Business 870.4 203.3 194.3 270.4 193.7 861.6 197.4 220.5 288.8 210.1 916.9 947.0
Off System Sales 78.1 29.8 20.7 24.1 27.0 101.6 27.7 11.4 19.2 14.6 72.9 87.9
Provision for Sharing (18.1) (9.0) (27.1)
Other Revenues 84.5 17.9 18.9 31.6 18.1 86.6 15.3 21.6 32.0 19.0 87.9 91.0
Electric Utility $1,033.1 $251.1 $233.9 $308.0 $229.7 $1,022.7 $240.5 $253.5 $339.9 $243.7 $1,077.7 $1,125.9
Diversified Operations 3.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.0 4.0 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 3.8 4.0
Total Revenues $1,036.0 $251.5 $235.0 $309.6 $230.6 $1,026.8 $241.1 $254.7 $340.9 $244.7 $1,081.5 $1,129.9
Operating Expenses:
Electric Utility:
Purchased Power 143.8 25.1 36.4 66.1 35.7 163.3 34.3 45.2 47.7 29.0 156.2 169.0
Fuel Expense 159.7 29.9 19.7 41.2 40.7 131.5 32.8 21.3 45.9 40.5 140.4 152.0
Third Party Transmission Expense
Power Cost Adjustment 51.2 31.3 15.5 (10.2) 1.9 38.5 9.0 (3.2) (15.0)0.0 (9.2)
Power Supply Expenses $354.7 $86.3 $71.6 $97.1 $78.3 $333.4 $76.0 $63.3 $78.6 $69.5 $287.4 $321.0
Utility Gross Margin before Provision for Sharing $678.4 $164.8 $162.3 $229.0 $160.4 $716.5 $164.4 $190.3 $261.3 $174.3 $790.3 $804.9
Other Operations And Maintenance 293.9 70.7 85.5 84.6 97.9 338.6 78.5 86.0 93.5 79.2 337.2 332.1
Energy Efficiency Programs 44.2 6.7 5.8 18.5 6.7 37.7 4.5 8.1 18.0 6.0 36.6 36.0
Depreciation 115.9 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.5 119.8 30.5 29.9 33.0 33.3 126.7 135.0
Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 24.0 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 28.9 8.1 7.8 5.8 5.4 27.1 24.8
Diversified Operations 4.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.6 4.1 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.2 4.4 4.8
Total Operating Expenses $837.4 $201.4 $200.7 $238.2 $222.2 $862.5 $198.8 $195.9 $230.1 $194.5 $819.3 $853.7
EBITD $335.7 $86.2 $69.1 $108.7 $46.1 $310.1 $80.8 $96.4 $151.3 $91.0 $419.6 $453.7
Operating Income:
Electric Utility 200.3 50.7 34.2 70.4 9.1 164.4 42.8 58.5 111.0 50.4 262.7 277.0
Other Diversified Operations (1.6) (0.6) 0.1 1.0 (0.6) (0.1) (0.5) 0.3 (0.2) (0.2) (0.5) (0.8)
Operating Income $198.7 $50.1 $34.3 $71.4 $8.5 $164.2 $42.3 $58.8 $110.8 $50.2 $262.2 $276.2
Other Income 15.2 4.5 5.0 6.0 5.6 21.2 6.6 6.6 5.0 5.0 23.2 22.5
Earnings Of Uncons. Eq-Method Inv. 3.0 (1.3) (4.4) 2.1 4.5 0.8 1.4 (1.9) 1.0 1.0 1.5 (3.0)
Interest On Long-Term Debt 80.5 20.8 19.5 19.5 19.5 79.3 19.5 20.1 21.1 21.3 82.0 85.0
Other Interest (5.4) (1.9) (1.9) (2.1) (2.0) (7.8) (2.3) (2.6) (2.1) (2.1) (9.1) (8.0)
Net Interest Charges 75.1 19.0 17.6 17.4 17.5 71.5 17.2 17.4 19.0 19.2 72.8 77.0
Income Before Income Taxes: $141.7 $34.4 $17.3 $62.0 $1.0 $114.7 $33.2 $46.0 $97.8 $37.0 $214.0 $218.7
Income Taxes: (0.7) 4.9 (3.7) (45.4) (8.0) (52.1) 8.3 10.6 23.0 8.7 50.6 54.7
Effective Tax Rate -0.5% 14.2% -21.1% -73.1% -803.7% -45.4% 25.1% 23.0% 23.5% 23.5% 23.6% 25.0%
Income From Continuing Operations $142.5 $29.5 $21.0 $107.4 $9.0 $166.9 $24.8 $35.4 $74.8 $28.3 $163.4 $164.0
Noncontrolling Interest 0.3 0.3 (0.1) (0.3) 0.0 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
Net Income Available For Common $142.8 $29.7 $20.9 $107.1 $9.0 $166.7 $24.9 $35.3 $74.9 $28.4 $163.5 $164.3
Average Diluted Shares Outstanding 48.3 49.4 49.5 49.6 49.7 49.6 49.9 50.0 50.1 50.2 50.0 50.6
Diluted EPS $2.95 $0.60 $0.42 $2.16 $0.18 $3.36 $0.50 $0.71 $1.50 $0.57 $3.27 $3.25
Ratio Analysis:
Gross Margin 65.8% 65.7% 69.5% 68.6% 66.1% 67.5% 68.5% 75.2% 76.9% 71.6% 73.4% 71.6%
Operating Margin 19.2% 19.9% 14.6% 23.1% 3.7% 16.0% 17.6% 23.1% 32.5% 20.5% 24.2% 24.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.7% 13.7% 7.4% 20.0% 0.4% 11.2% 13.7% 18.1% 28.7% 15.1% 19.8% 19.4%
Net Margin 13.8% 11.8% 8.9% 34.6% 3.9% 16.2% 10.3% 13.9% 22.0% 11.6% 15.1% 14.5%
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Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2012. All rights reserved.
5
Required Disclosures
D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the
next three months.
D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. James L.
Bellessa, Jr., CFA and Michael Bates, the research analysts principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive
compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson
& Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions.
We, James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA and Michael Bates, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Ratings Information
D.A. Davidson & Co. Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform
Risk adjusted return potential azbycx
Over 15% total return
expected on a risk adjusted
basis over next 12-18 months
>0-15% return potential
on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months
Likely to remain flat or lose
value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months
Distribution of Ratings (as of 6/30/12) Buy Hold Sell
Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform
and Distribution 58% 40% 2%
Corresponding Individual Investor Group Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform
and Distribution 80% 20% 0%
Distribution of Combined Ratings 58% 40% 2%
Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos.
Institutional Coverage 3% 2% 0%
Individual Investor Group Coverage 0% 0% 0%
Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 3% 2% 0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform
D.A. Davidson & Co.
Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 (503) 603-3000 (800) 755-7848 www.dadavidson.com
Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2012. All rights reserved.
6
Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based
upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria.
Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic
fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends.
Other Disclosures
Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any
action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original
publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in
investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also
remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee,
express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional
Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment
sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the
advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice
before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.