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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDA080113.pdf Please refer to pages 6-7 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. * D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security. Institutional Equity Research IDACORP, Inc. August 5, 2013 IDA* – NYSE Rating: Buy Price: (8/5/13) $52.92 Price Targets: 12-18 month: ↑ $60.00 5-year: ↑$70.00 Industry: Utilities Michael Bates 503.603.3045 mbates@dadco.com Maintaining BUY Following Strong 2Q Results  IDACORP reported 2Q EPS of $0.91 versus $0.71 a year ago. Results were well ahead of our estimate of $0.66 and the Street mean of $0.68. Earnings growth was driven by an increased rate base and stronger than expected electric demand.  Gross profit rose 18% to $226 million, and was positively impacted by returns on the Langley Gulch natural gas plant (placed in service in late June 2012), solid customer growth, and favorable spring weather.  2013 EPS guidance was raised to $3.40-$3.55, from $3.20-$3.35. The improved outlook was driven by strong operating performance in 2Q and an expected benefit from persistently hot summer weather through July (the third hottest on record for IDA’s territory). The new range assumes revenue sharing with Idaho-based customers in the 75% sharing level, at a 10.5% return on year- end equity.  BUY rated. We are increasing our estimates for the positive 2Q variance. Our price target is raised to $60 (previously $54) to reflect the firm’s favorable risk/reward profile, given a solid regulatory backdrop, improved load growth trend, and strong financial position that should support attractive cash flows and dividend increases. Our target equates to 17.4x our 2015 EPS forecast of $3.45. Valuation Data Long-term growth rate (E) 5% Total Debt/Cap (6/30/13) 49.2% Cash per share (6/30/13) $2.71 Book value per share (6/30/13) $35.91 Dividend (yield) $1.52 (2.9%) Return on Equity (T-T-M) 10.7% Trading Data Shares outstanding (M) 50.2 Market Capitalization ($M) $2,658 52-week range $40.18 - $54.74 Average daily volume (3 mos.) (K) 248 Float 99% Index Membership S&P 400 FY (Dec) 2012A 2013E Previous 2014E Previous Revenue ($M) Q1 (Mar) $241 $265 A - n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $255 $304 A $256 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $334 $357 E $358 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $251 $250 E $251 n.a.n.a. $1,081 $1,176 E $1,129 $1,154 $1,139 Price/Revenue 2.4x 2.3x 2.3x EPS Q1 (Mar) $0.50 $0.67 A - n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $0.71 $0.91 A $0.66 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $1.84 $1.60 E $1.64 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $0.33 $0.34 E $0.35 n.a.n.a. $3.37 $3.52 E $3.33 $3.40 NC Price/EPS 15.7x 15.0x 15.6x EBITDA ($M) Q1 (Mar) $81 $96 A - n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $93 $114 A $93 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $147 $158 E $159 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $71 $74 E $75 n.a.n.a. $393 $442 E $423 $433 $432 EV/EBITDA 10.9x 9.7x 9.9x D.A. Davidson & Co. 2 Price Chart Source: Capital IQ Company Description: Boise, ID -- IDACORP, Inc. is the holding company for the Idaho Power Company, an electric public utility that serves an approximate 24,000 square mile area in Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Non-regulated subsidiaries include an affordable housing project finance company and an operator of small hydroelectric generation projects. Potential Risks:  Regulatory/Legislative. Changes in the regulatory and/or legislative environment could influence the utility’s business practices, credit ratings/access to capital markets, rate structure, cost recovery, and ability to achieve adequate returns on its investments.  Economic and weather conditions. The firm’s financial results and operating strategy are sensitive to the economic climate (including fluctuations in commodity prices) and regional weather conditions (including streamflows).  Project delays or cancellations. Development of the utility’s projects could be delayed or cancelled for numerous reasons.  Interest rates. Access to capital under competitive terms is critical to the company’s capital expenditure programs. Interest rate increases may also lead to compression in utility stock prices.  Litigation. Electric utilities commonly face legal challenges regarding their electric generating facilities, particularly coal-fired units. These matters often stretch out over long time periods and can have unpredictable outcomes. In the event an adverse outcome were handed down, the impact could be significant, despite the firm’s mitigation efforts. D.A. Davidson & Co. 3 Historical Financial Position Source: Company reports $ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2011 1Q'12 2Q'12 3Q'12 2012 1Q'13 2Q'13 Current Assets: Cash And Cash Equivalents $27.8 $8.9 $14.4 $20.2 $26.5 $24.5 $136.2 Other 283.2 314.4 343.7 345.8 340.7 359.8 384.4 Total Current Assets $311.0 $323.3 $358.1 $366.0 $367.3 $384.3 $520.6 Property, Plant And Equipment - Net 3,406.6 3,420.6 3,473.0 3,506.8 3,536.0 3,554.5 3,587.2 Investments 199.9 196.0 198.1 190.7 189.0 181.3 178.3 Other 1,043.1 1,050.8 1,073.8 1,144.1 1,227.2 1,195.8 1,202.6 Total Assets $4,960.6 $4,990.6 $5,103.0 $5,207.6 $5,319.5 $5,315.8 $5,488.7 Current Liabilities: Long-Term Debt Due Within One Year 101.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 71.1 1.1 71.1 Notes Payable 54.2 63.0 64.7 51.4 69.7 83.8 61.9 Other 214.0 219.9 230.9 215.8 210.5 170.6 180.7 Total Current Liabilities $369.2 $283.9 $296.6 $268.3 $351.3 $255.4 $313.6$0. Long-Term Debt 1,387.6 1,486.6 1,536.5 1,536.6 1,466.6 1,535.6 1,615.1 Other 1,542.1 1,545.6 1,573.5 1,628.6 1,738.6 1,745.4 1,752.1 Total Liabilities $3,298.9 $3,316.1 $3,406.6 $3,433.4 $3,556.6 $3,536.4 $3,680.9- Common Equity 1,657.7 1,670.6 1,692.3 1,770.0 1,758.8 1,775.3 1,803.6 Noncontrolling Interest 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 Total Capitalization And Liabilities $4,960.6 $4,990.6 $5,103.0 $5,207.6 $5,319.5 $5,315.8 $5,488.7 Common Shares Outstanding - End 49.8 50.1 50.2 48.6 48.3 50.2 50.2 Book Value Per Share $33.26 $33.35 $33.74 $36.39 $36.38 $35.34 $35.91 Capital Structure: Common Equity 51.9% 51.9% 51.4% 52.8% 52.3% 52.3% 50.8% Long-Term Debt 46.5% 46.1% 46.6% 45.7% 45.6% 45.2% 47.4% Short-Term Debt 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% Capitalization 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% D.A. Davidson & Co. 4 Historical and Forecasted Cash Flow Source: Company reports and D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates $ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e Cash Flow from Operating Activities: Net Income $124.4 $142.5 $166.9 $168.9 $176.6 $170.3 $178.2 Depreciation & Amortization 118.6 121.8 124.7 128.6 134.4 138.2 141.8 Deferred Taxes And Invest. Tax Credits 19.0 41.7 (52.9) 26.3 19.1 8.0 8.0 Change In Regulatory Assets & Liabilities 57.8 46.5 68.0 (53.5) (40.7) (32.0) (32.0) Pension and Postretirement Plan Expense 11.6 14.7 45.2 45.2 28.7 28.0 28.0 Pension and Postretirement Plan Contributions (7.6) (65.6) (22.1) (47.7) (32.4) (40.0) (40.0) AFUDC - Equity (7.6) (16.6) (25.5) (22.4) (13.8) (15.0) (12.2) Distributions from Equity Method Investments 12.5 6.5 2.5 18.5 12.0 8.0 8.0 Net Other Items (7.6) (7.8) 2.6 (8.2) 3.4 - - Operating Cash Flows before WC $321.2 $283.8 $309.4 $255.8 $287.2 $265.5 $279.8 Net Change in Working Capital (36.8) 21.6 0.8 (6.5) (27.7) - - Net Operating Cash Flow $284.4 $305.4 $310.2 $249.3 $259.5 $265.5 $279.8 Cash Flow from Investing Activities: Additions To Utility Plant (251.9) (338.3) (337.8) (239.8) (235.0) (282.5) (307.5) Net Other 9.5 9.9 5.4 (4.1) 4.5 Net Investing Cash Flow ($242.4) ($328.3) ($332.4) ($243.8) ($230.5) ($282.5) ($307.5) Cash Flow Before Financing $42.0 ($22.9) ($22.1) $5.4 $29.0 ($17.0) ($27.7) Cash Flow from Financing Activities: Dividends (56.8) (57.9) (59.7) (68.9) (82.2) (94.4) (109.2) Net Borrowing 43.3 212.1 (133.8) 64.4 59.5 111.4 136.9 Net Equity 22.9 47.8 15.6 2.8 (1.9) Net Other (7.3) (3.4) (0.9) (5.1) (1.0) - - Net Financing Cash Flow $2.1 $198.6 ($178.7) ($6.7) ($25.6) $17.0 $27.7 Net Change in Cash 44.2 175.7 (200.9) (1.3) 3.5 - - Cash & Equivalents - End $53.0 $228.7 $27.8 $26.5 $30.0 $30.0 $30.0 Cash Flow Metrics: Operating Cash Flows $284.4 $305.4 $310.2 $249.3 $259.5 $265.5 $279.8 Dividends (56.8) (57.9) (59.7) (68.9) (82.2) (94.4) (109.2) Retained Cash Flow (RCF) $227.6 $247.5 $250.6 $180.3 $177.3 $171.1 $170.6 Capex (251.9) (338.3) (337.8) (239.8) (235.0) (282.5) (307.5) Free Cash Flow ($24.3) ($90.7) ($87.2) ($59.4) ($57.7) ($111.4) ($136.9) RCF/Capex -10% -27% -26% -25% -25% -39% -45% D.A. Davidson & Co. 5 Historical and Projected Operating Results *Certain items previously reported as Other Income were reclassified as Other Operating Expense with the release of 2012 results to correct an accounting error (the error did not impact reported net income). The reclassified amounts were not detailed by quarter. Source: Company reports and D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates $ millions -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 1Q'12R 2Q'12 3Q'12 4Q'12 2012 1Q'13 2Q'13 3Q'13e 4Q'13e 2013e 2014e 2015e Operating Revenues $241.1 $254.7 $334.0 $250.8 $1,080.7 $264.9 $303.9 $357.0 $250.5 $1,176.3 $1,154.3 $1,196.2 Power Supply Expenses 76.0 63.3 84.7 71.3 295.3 77.3 77.7 95.7 74.4 325.1 327.5 330.8 Gross Profit $165.1 $191.4 $249.3 $179.5 $785.4 $187.6 $226.2 $261.2 $176.1 $851.2 $826.8 $865.4 Operating Expenses: Other Operations And Maintenance 78.5 86.0 90.0 94.5 349.0 79.8 83.2 90.9 91.1 344.9 348.4 360.6 Energy Efficiency Programs 4.5 8.1 8.4 6.3 27.3 4.5 19.7 7.1 5.0 36.4 23.1 23.9 Depreciation 30.5 29.9 31.6 31.9 123.9 31.9 32.2 34.0 34.4 132.6 138.2 141.8 Taxes Other than Income Taxes 8.1 7.8 7.0 7.5 30.5 8.2 8.1 7.1 7.6 30.9 31.2 32.9 Other Operating Expenses* 3.6 3.2 1.0 1.0 12.0 3.8 3.6 3.0 3.0 13.5 12.0 12.0 Total Operating Expenses $125.2 $135.0 $138.0 $141.3 $542.8 $128.2 $146.8 $142.1 $141.1 $558.2 $552.9 $571.3 EBITD $80.9 $93.3 $147.2 $71.5 $392.9 $95.9 $114.5 $157.8 $74.1 $442.3 $432.7 $453.7 Operating Income $39.9 $56.5 $111.3 $30.1 $242.6 $59.4 $79.4 $119.1 $35.0 $293.0 $273.9 $294.1 AFUDC - Equity 7.6 7.8 3.5 3.4 22.4 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 13.8 15.0 12.2 Earnings Of Unconsolidated Equity Investments 1.4 (1.9) 1.3 (1.1) (0.3) 0.1 (2.3)0.3 0.3 (1.6) 1.2 1.2 Other Income* 1.5 1.1 2.9 7.1 4.2 0.8 1.6 1.1 1.1 4.6 4.4 4.4 Net Interest Expense 17.2 17.4 19.4 19.8 73.9 19.5 20.6 19.4 17.5 77.0 76.2 83.5 Income Before Income Taxes $33.2 $46.0 $96.2 $19.7 $195.0 $44.5 $61.6 $104.5 $22.2 $232.8 $218.3 $228.5 Income Taxes 8.3 10.6 3.9 3.3 26.1 11.1 15.9 24.0 5.1 56.2 48.0 50.3 Effective Tax Rate 25.1% 23.0% 4.1% 16.7% 13.4% 25.0% 25.9%23.0% 23.0%24.1% 22.0% 22.0% Net Income $24.8 $35.4 $92.3 $16.4 $168.9 $33.4 $45.7 $80.4 $17.1 $176.6 $170.3 $178.2 Noncontrolling Interest 0.1 (0.1) (0.2) 0.0 (0.2) 0.2 (0.1)0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 Net Income Available For Common $24.9 $35.3 $92.1 $16.5 $168.8 $33.5 $45.5 $80.5 $17.2 $176.8 $170.6 $178.5 Average Diluted Shares 49.9 50.0 50.1 50.1 50.0 50.1 50.1 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 51.7 Diluted EPS - GAAP $0.50 $0.71 $1.84 $0.33 $3.37 $0.67 $0.91 $1.60 $0.34 $3.52 $3.40 $3.45 Diluted EPS-Adjusted $0.50 $0.71 $1.68 $0.33 $3.22 $0.67 $0.91 $1.60 $0.34 $3.52 $3.40 $3.45 Ratio Analysis: ROAE (ttm)10.0% 10.7% 9.5% 9.9% 9.9% 10.2% 10.7% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.0% 9.1% ROAA (ttm)3.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% EBITDA Margin 33.5% 36.6% 44.1% 28.5% 36.4% 36.2% 37.7% 44.2% 29.6% 37.6% 37.5% 37.9% Operating Margin 16.5% 22.2% 33.3% 12.0% 22.4% 22.4% 26.1% 33.4% 14.0% 24.9% 23.7% 24.6% Pre-Tax Margin 13.7% 18.1% 28.8% 7.9% 18.0% 16.8% 20.3% 29.3% 8.9% 19.8% 18.9% 19.1% Net Margin 10.3% 13.9% 27.6% 6.6% 15.6% 12.7% 15.0% 22.6% 6.9% 15.0% 14.8% 14.9% Dividends Per Common Share $0.33 $0.33 $0.33 $0.38 $1.37 $0.38 $0.38 $0.44 $0.44 $1.63 $1.88 $2.11 Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm) 37.7% 35.6% 40.0% 40.6% 40.6% 40.1% 39.2% 44.9% 46.4% 46.4% 55.3% 61.2% Dividend Growth 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 26.7% 14.2% 15.2% 15.2% 32.4% 15.0% 19.3% 15.0% 12.3% D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400  Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035  (503) 603-3000  (800) 755-7848  www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2013. All rights reserved. 6 Required Disclosures D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. Michael Bates, the research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions. I, Michael Bates, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Ratings Information D.A. Davidson & Co. Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform Risk adjusted return potential azbycx Over 15% total return expected on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months >0-15% return potential on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Likely to remain flat or lose value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Distribution of Ratings (as of 6/30/2013) Buy Hold Sell Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform and Distribution 51% 47% 2% Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos. Institutional Coverage 9% 3% 0% D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400  Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035  (503) 603-3000  (800) 755-7848  www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2013. All rights reserved. 7 Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria. Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends. Other Disclosures Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee, express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.