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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDA042612_Upgrade.pdf Please see page 8 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. ril 27, 2012 Equit Research IDACORP, Inc. IDA: Upgrading To Outperform From Market Perform Valuation Discount Represents Opportunity • Summary. We are upgrading our rating on IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) to Outperform from Market Perform as the current valuation discounts are excessive, in our view. Further, we continue to be encouraged by regulatory developments in Idaho, and IDA’s near-term earnings visibility, solid balance sheet and service territory growth trends remain attractive. No change to EPS outlook or 12-18 month valuation range of $44-45 per share. • EPS Outlook. Our ‘12-16E EPS are $3.05, $3.20, $3.30, $3.35 & $3.50, respectively. Consistent with Idaho Power’s rate settlement, our ‘12-14E EPS are based on earned ROEs of 9.5% on year-end Idaho-jurisdictional equity. We assume ADITC usage of $2MM, $16.5MM and $25MM in ’12-14, respectively, and modest base rate relief in 2014, though the ultimate timing of rate relief will depend on sales growth, cost controls and other items. Our ’15-16E EPS are based on more traditional rate parameters. The longer-term growth outlook is sensitive to changes in transmission CapEx (we assume aggregate spending on Boardman to Hemingway and Gateway West of $35MM in ’14, $125MM in ’15 & $150MM in ’16) and earned ROEs (we assume about 9.5% earned ROEs on average rate base). • Valuation. Shares trade at discounts of 14%, 11% & 8% relative to the Small- Cap Regulated Electric Utility peer group median multiples on our 12E-14E EPS. We believe these discounts are excessive given IDA’s attractive service territory, increasingly constructive regulation, near-term earnings visibility, healthy balance sheet and longer-term rate base growth opportunities. • Regulatory Update. Idaho Power implemented a $45.5MM base rate increase (excluding power supply costs) on January 1, 2012. Separately, the company is operating under a settlement agreement through 2014 that allows the company to accelerate the amortization of $45MM of ADITCs (up to $25MM per year) in order to achieve a 9.5% ROE on year-end Idaho-jurisdictional equity. The settlement does not preclude Idaho Power from seeking base rate relief. This framework enhances near-term earnings visibility and delays the need to file a full rate case. Further, recent regulatory developments demonstrate a continued constructive working relationship with key parties in Idaho. Valuation Range: $44.00 to $45.00 We value IDA under P/E multiple (14.25X multiple on our 13E EPS of $3.20) and dividend discount analysis. Risks to our valuation include project delays/cancellations, negative regulatory developments and economic weakness. Investment Thesis: Our Outperform rating is largely predicated on valuation considerations. In addition, we are attracted to IDA's increasingly constructive regulatory environment, near-term earnings visibility, healthy balance sheet and attractive service territory. Outperform Sector: Regulated Electric Utilities Market Weight Rating Change 2011A 2012E 2013E EPS Curr. Prior Curr. Prior Q1 (Mar.) $0.60 $0.52 0.60 NE Q2 (June) 0.42 0.50 0.56 NE Q3 (Sep.) 2.16 1.50 1.48 NE Q4 (Dec.) 0.18 0.53 0.40 NE FY $3.36 $3.05 NC $3.20 NC CY $3.36 $3.05 $3.20 FY P/E 12.0x 13.3x 12.6x Rev.(MM)$1,027 $1,136 $1,175 Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate, NM = Not Meaningful V = Volatile, = Company is on the Priority Stock List Ticker IDA Price (04/26/2012) $40.45 52-Week Range: $33-43 Shares Outstanding: (MM) 49.9 Market Cap.: (MM) $2,018.5 S&P 500: 1,399.98 Avg. Daily Vol.: 227,612 Dividend/Yield: $1.32/3.3% LT Debt: (MM) $1,488.6 LT Debt/Total Cap.: 46.5% ROE: 10.0% 3-5 Yr. Est. Growth Rate: 4.0% CY 2012 Est. P/E-to-Growth: 3.3x Last Reporting Date: 02/22/2012 Before Open Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters Sarah Akers, CFA, Senior Analyst (314) 955-6209 / sarah.akers@wellsfargo.com Neil Kalton, CFA, Senior Analyst (314) 955-5239 / neil.kalton@wellsfargo.com Jonathan Reeder, Associate Analyst (314) 955-2462 / jonathan.reeder@wellsfargo.com WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 2 Company Description: IDACORP (IDA) is the holding company for Idaho Power Company (IPC), a regulated electric utility serving more than 485,000 customers in southern Idaho, including Boise and surrounding areas, and eastern Oregon. In addition, IDACORP Financial Services (IFS), a non-utility business, invests in affordable housing tax credits. Investment Thesis We are upgrading our rating on shares of IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) to Outperform from Market Perform. The current share price, which implies 8-14% discounts to the Small-Cap Regulated Electric Utility peer group median multiples on our 2012-2014 EPS estimates, offers a favorable risk/reward opportunity for investors, in our view. We believe some level of relative valuation discount is warranted through 2014 as (1) our projected 5-year annual EPS growth rate of 3.5% (off a 12E base) is slightly below peers of roughly 5%, and (2) our 2013 & 2014 EPS estimates are 2-3% higher than “underlying” earnings power based on traditional rate parameters. However, we consider the current discounts to be excessive in light of IDA’s other favorable attributes, including a relatively attractive service territory, increasingly constructive regulatory treatment, a very manageable near-term regulatory calendar, a solid financial position including no material equity needs for the foreseeable future, and longer-term rate base growth opportunities related to two major transmission projects. We believe the chief risks to investors are potential delays to the Boardman-to-Hemingway and Gateway West transmission projects, which represent the next leg of earnings growth and, to some degree, IDA’s below average 3.3% dividend yield, which could limit outperformance in a yield-hungry environment. That said, other capital projects could materialize over the next few years, and we project above-average dividend growth of 10% per year through 2016. Further, given the recent share performance (IDA shares are down 2.5% since mid-February vs. S&P Utilities of +2.8%), we think the share price already reflects the low yield and embeds a low growth outlook post-2014. EPS Outlook Our 2012-2016 EPS estimates are $3.05, $3.20, $3.30, $3.35 & $3.50, respectively (see Figure 1). This results in a compound annual EPS growth rate of 3.5% (off a 2012E base). Figure 1: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC EPS Estimates, 2012-2016E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Wells Fargo Securities, LLC $3.05 $3.20 $3.30 $3.35 $3.50 Company Guidance $3.00-3.15 Consensus $3.08 $3.21 $3.34 NA NA Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Estimates, company guidance and FactSet consensus estimates • 2012-2014. Our 2012-2014 EPS estimates of $3.05, $3.20 and $3.30 are predicated on Idaho Power’s rate settlement parameters, which allow the company to amortize up to $45mm of ADITCs in order to achieve a 9.5% return on year-end Idaho-jurisdictional equity. We assume ADITC amortizations of $2mm in 2012, $16.5mm in 2013 and $25mm in 2014. The ultimate ADITC usage would depend, in large part, on sales growth and cost controls. These items also dictate whether or not Idaho Power needs base rate relief in 2014. Our model, which assumes weather-adjusted sales growth of 1% annually and O&M expense growth of 3-4% annually, indicates a modest need for base rate relief in 2014 (we currently assume $9mm). That said, we think it is possible that Idaho Power can manage the business to defer the need for rate relief until 2015, which we would view favorably. • 2015-2016. Our 2015 & 2016 EPS estimates of $3.35 and $3.50 are based on more traditional rate parameters. We continue to assume earned ROEs of around 9.5%, but the use of average rate base rather than year-end equity creates a bit of a headwind in ’15. Based on recent improvements in the Idaho regulatory landscape, we think a 9.5% earned ROE is reasonable, particularly if Idaho continues to move toward a more forward-looking test year. We calculate that a 50 basis point change in the earned ROE has an approximate $0.15, or 4-5%, impact on 15E & 16E EPS. The other notable driver of our 2015 and 2016 EPS estimates is AFUDC related to the Boardman to Hemingway (B2H) and Gateway West transmission projects, which are currently slated for WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC IDACORP, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 3 completion in 2016 and phases from 2016-2021, respectively. We assume aggregate CapEx related to these projects of $35mm in 2014, $125mm in 2015 and $150mm in 2016. Valuation Relative Valuation. Figure 2 below highlights key valuation metrics relative to other Small-Cap and All-Cap Regulated Electric Utilities. We believe shares merit a modest discount relative to the 2012 peer group median multiple on our 12E EPS of $3.05 reflecting a modestly below peers 5-year annual EPS growth rate (3.5% vs. 5%). That said, we think the current 14% discount is excessive, particularly in light of IDA’s relatively attractive service territory, increasingly constructive regulatory treatment, a manageable near-term regulatory calendar, and solid financial position including no material equity needs for the foreseeable future. As we look out to 2014 “underlying” EPS power, we think an in-line multiple is warranted as we expect the EPS growth outlook may be more in-line with peers at that point based on two major transmission projects. Importantly, our 2013 & 2014 EPS estimates are roughly $0.08, or 2-3%, above what we consider “underlying” EPS power due to the use of year-end Idaho jurisdictional equity rather than average rate base. If we adjusted EPS to reflect more traditional rate parameters then the P/E based valuation discounts would be 8% & 5% in 2013 & 2014 relative to the Small-Cap Regulated Electric Utilities and 9% & 7% relative to the All-Cap Regulated Electric Utilities. Given IDA’s aforementioned positive features and a growth outlook that is more in-line with peers by 2014, we view the current discounted valuation an opportunity for investors. We also highlight that there could be a scenario where current rate parameters are extended beyond 2014. While it is too early to gauge the likelihood of such a scenario (will depend on ADITC usage through 2014, among other items), this represents upside potential to our EPS and regulatory outlook. Figure 2: IDACORP, Inc. Relative Valuation Metrics 4/26/2012 2012E 2013E 2014E IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) $40.45 13.3x 12.6x 12.3x 1.2 3.3% 43% Small-Cap Regulated Electric Utility Median 15.5x 14.1x 13.3x 1.5 4.2% 65% IDA Premium/Discount to Small-Cap Peers -14% -11% -8% -19% All-Cap Regulated Electric Utility Median 15.3x 14.2x 13.5x 1.6 4.2% 62% IDA Premium/Discount to All-Cap Peers -13% -11% -10% -26% Div. Yld. 12E Payout Price/ Tangible Book Price P/E Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Estimates, FactSet Valuation Range: $44-45 per share. Our $44-45 valuation range is primarily supported by our P/E multiple and dividend discount valuation methodologies. • P/E Multiple Analysis. We apply a 14.25X P/E multiple to our 2013 EPS estimate of $3.20 to arrive at a forward value of roughly $45.50. The 14.25X P/E multiple is represents a modest discount to the 2012 Small-Cap and All-Cap Regulated Electric Utility peer group medians of 15.5X and 15.3X, respectively. We use a discounted multiple to reflect the current rate parameters, which support EPS 2-3% higher than underlying EPS power in 2013 & 2014 and a slightly below peers 5-year growth outlook. We apply a 2012 multiple to our 2013 EPS estimate due to the forward-looking nature of our valuation range. Importantly, our projected 3.5% annual EPS growth outlook through 2016 embeds below-average underlying growth through ’14 and a pick-up in growth in ’15 & ’16. This reflects a lull in CapEx beginning in mid-2012 as spending on Langley Gulch concludes and spending on major transmission projects does not commence 2014. If we look to 2014 as the base year, however, the EPS growth outlook should be bolstered by transmission spending resulting in a growth rate more commensurate with peers. As a result, we think a multiple that is in-line with peers is warranted on 2014 underlying EPS, as discussed in the relative valuation section. • Dividend Discount Model. Our dividend discount model (DDM) supports a 12-18 month valuation range of nearly $44 per share. Key assumptions underlying our analysis include 10% annual dividend growth through 2016, an 8.0% discount rate and long-term earnings and dividend growth of 4% based on a 9.5% ROE and 55% payout ratio. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 4 Features • Attractive Footprint. IDA’s service territory has and will likely continue to experience above average population growth relative to the national average due to its natural beauty, temperate climate and low cost of living, particularly when compared to California. This should support continued sales growth and ultimately drive rate base growth opportunities. • Near-Term Earnings Visibility. Idaho Power’s 2012-2014 rate settlement allows the company to accelerate the amortization of $45mm accumulated deferred income tax credits (ADITCs) in order to achieve a 9.5% return on year-end Idaho-jurisdictional equity, subject to a $25mm annual limit. This provides significant near-term earnings visibility and delays the need for base rate relief. • Constructive Regulatory Environment & Manageable Near-Term Regulatory Calendar. We have been encouraged by regulatory developments in Idaho over the past 5 years, discussed in greater detail later in the note. While the lack of a fully forward-looking test year and the lack of complete pass-through for fuel and purchased power costs are not ideal, Idaho Power has reached constructive, innovative settlement agreements dating back to 2009. We consider the positive working relationship between the company and key parties to be a distinct positive for both shareholders and customers. Further, due in large part to recent rate settlements, IDA’s near-term regulatory calendar is very manageable, in our view. Idaho Power has a pending rate request to recover and earn a return on the Langley Gulch combined-cycle gas plant effective July 1, 2012. We expect the process will be fairly straightforward as the investment was pre-approved. Beyond Langley, we do not expect Idaho Power will need to file a base rate case until mid-2013 at the earliest. • Solid Financial Position. As of year-end 2011 IDA’s common equity to total capitalization (including short-term debt) was nearly 52%, which compares favorably to the Small-Cap Regulated Electric Utility peer group median of 46%. We do not expect IDA will need to issue meaningful external equity through 2016. While we currently assume ~$12.5mm per year of equity through the dividend reinvestment and employee-related plans, we believe IDA could curb these programs based on our projected capitalization ratios. • Secure Dividend With Above-Average Growth Potential. IDA’s annual dividend rate of $1.32 per share represents a 43% payout on our 2012E EPS of $3.05. This compares to the Small-Cap and All-Cap Regulated Electric Utility peer group medians of 65% and 62%, respectively, and IDA’s recently adopted 50-60% long-term payout target. We project 10% annual increases in the dividend through 2016 resulting in a 55% payout ratio on our 16E EPS of $3.50. Risks • Transmission Project Delays. The Boardman to Hemingway (B2H) and Gateway West transmission lines are key growth drivers for IDA in the next 3-5 years, in our view. The projects are currently in the permitting phase. The targeted in-service date for Boardman-to-Hemingway is 2016 and Gateway West is expected to be completed in phases likely spanning the rest of the decade, at least. We assume CapEx related to these projects of $35mm in 2014, $125mm in 2015 and $150mm in 2016. While we do not consider these assumptions to be particularly aggressive, large-scale long lead-time transmission projects are subject to delay due to siting and permitting roadblocks and other regulatory hurdles. Lower than expected CapEx would result in lower allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC) earnings, particularly in 2015 & 2016. Positively, both projects were named to the Obama administration’s Rapid Response Team for Transmission (RRTT) pilot program to streamline federal permitting and increase cooperation among regulatory bodies, though the practical implications of the designation is not yet clear. Further, our concerns are mitigated, to some degree, by the potential for other growth opportunities to arise (IDA plans to submit the next Integrated Resource Plan in June 2013). Of note, the Langley Gulch facility is sited for an additional unit, which could come into play if B2H faces significant opposition or delays. Lastly, absent any growth CapEx, we expect IDA would have significant financial flexibility in the 2014-2016 time frame. • Regulatory Risk. While we have been encouraged by recent regulatory developments and the near- term regulatory calendar appears very manageable, IDA’s longer-term EPS power depends on continued constructive regulatory treatment. We expect Idaho Power will require base rate relief in WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC IDACORP, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 5 either 2014 or 2015 with the ultimate timing largely dependant on sales growth and cost controls. Our EPS estimates generally assumed earned ROEs around 9.5%. We estimate that a 50 basis point change to the earned ROE has an approximate $0.15, or 4-5%, impact on EPS. • Sales/Costs. Lower than expected sales growth (we assume 1% annual sales growth) or higher than expected expense growth (we assume 3-4% annual O&M growth) could have a negative impact on earned ROEs and, hence, our EPS estimates, particularly post-2014. • Below Average Hydro Conditions. While Idaho Power’s Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) mechanism has been significantly improved, shareholders are still exposed to some bottom-line impact of higher than expected power supply costs, which are largely impacted by hydro conditions. While the 2012-2014 rate settlement provides some protection in the near-term, hydro conditions, which are outside of the company’s control, can result in more volatile earnings relative to peers, many of which have full pass-through mechanisms for fuel and purchased power. Regulatory Overview & Update The Idaho regulatory environment has improved over the past five years, in our view. We believe more constructive regulatory policies and relationships took root in 2008 when the company engaged in workshops with the staff of the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC). These workshops resulted in improvements to the Idaho Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) sharing mechanism, the load growth adjustment rate (LGAR) and the test year used in ratemaking, among other items. Subsequently, a collaborative rate settlement announced in late 2009 set the stage for more visible earnings and reduced regulatory risk. The settlement included the sharing of the 2010 PCA cost reduction between the company (effectively a base rate increase) and customers, the ability to amortize up to $45mm of accumulated deferred investment tax credits (ADITC) over the 2009-2011 period in order to achieve a minimum ROE of 9.5% on Idaho-jurisdictional year-end equity, an earnings sharing mechanism should the company earn above a 10.5% ROE, and a moratorium on new base rate relief through 12/31/11. Due, in part, to a few meaningful tax benefits, Idaho Power was able to largely preserve the ADITC balance during the 2009-2011 rate period and share over-earnings with customers. This set the stage for a modified extension of the rate plan through 2014, discussed below. On 9/26/11, IDA announced a settlement agreement in the company’s base rate case providing a $45.5mm base rate increase vs. original request of $71.3mm (excludes power supply costs) effective 1/1/12. The settlement was silent on ROE and equity ratio, but the implied ROE was roughly 10%. Subsequently, parties reached a separate settlement that allows Idaho Power to accelerate the amortization of $45mm of ADITCs (subject to an annual limit of $25mm) during the period 2012-2014 in order to achieve a 9.5% ROE on Idaho- jurisdictional year-end equity. The final settlement included sharing of earnings resulting in a 10.0-10.5% ROE 50/50 between shareholders/customers and 25/75 above 10.5% and provides a higher than previously stipulated customer refund associated with over-earnings in the prior rate plan. Importantly, the rate settlement does not include a moratorium on new base rate relief. As a result of the base rate relief effective this year and the ADITC provision through 2014 we do not expect Idaho Power will need to file a base rate case until mid-2013 or mid-2014. On March 2, 2012, Idaho Power filed a request to recover and earn a return on the 300 MW Langley Gulch combined cycle gas-fired power plant, which is expected to go online on or before July 1, 2012. The request includes a $59.9mm, or 7.1%, rate increase effective 7/1/12. Favorably, the revenue sharing provision included in the 3-year settlement agreement would help mitigate the impact on customer bills. Including the impact of proposed revenue sharing as well as a minor rate impact from the annual fixed-cost adjustment (FCA), Idaho Power estimates the cumulative rate impact on customers will be a 4% increase. We expect the Langley case to be relatively straightforward as the project was pre-approved by the Commission up to $396mm. The actual cost came in just $5mm above the pre-approved amount and $26mm below IDA’s original projected cost. The IPUC recently approved a modified procedure that calls for written comment by May 30 and reply comments no later than June 12, 2012. We have been encouraged by the regulatory improvements and constructive working relationship demonstrated over the past five years. While Idaho has not formally adopted a fully forward-looking test year and there is still some volatility in the PCA (95/5 sharing between customers/shareholders), we consider the Idaho regulatory landscape to be fair and increasingly constructive. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 6 ( i n t h o u s a n d s e x c e p t p e r s h a r e d a t a ) 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 3 E 2 0 1 4 E 2 0 1 5 E 2 0 1 6 E Re v e n u e s $ 9 6 0 , 4 1 4 $ 1 , 0 4 9 , 8 0 0 $ 1 , 0 3 6 , 0 2 9 $ 1 , 0 2 6 , 7 5 6 $ 1 , 1 3 6 , 2 6 1 $ 1 , 1 7 4 , 8 8 8 $ 1 , 1 9 2 , 7 2 1 $ 1 , 2 5 5 , 6 5 1 $ 1 , 2 8 4 , 1 7 9 Ex p e n s e s P u r c h a s e d P o w e r * 2 3 8 , 3 8 7 1 6 7 , 1 9 8 1 4 3 , 7 6 9 1 6 3 , 3 3 6 3 3 4 , 9 2 6 3 3 7 , 4 0 5 3 4 0 , 1 6 0 3 4 2 , 9 4 7 3 4 5 , 7 6 5 F u e l E x p e n s e 1 4 9 , 4 0 3 1 4 9 , 5 6 6 1 5 9 , 6 7 3 1 3 1 , 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 T h i r d P a r t y T r a n s m i s s i o n E x p e n s e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P o w e r C o s t A d j u s t m e n t ( 4 7 , 4 1 3 ) 6 6 , 7 1 0 5 1 , 2 2 6 3 8 , 4 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 O t h e r O & M 2 8 6 , 2 7 5 2 9 2 , 8 1 3 2 9 3 , 9 2 5 3 3 8 , 6 4 0 3 3 1 , 8 6 7 3 4 5 , 1 4 2 3 5 5 , 4 9 6 3 6 6 , 1 6 1 3 7 7 , 1 4 6 D e p r e c i a t i o n 1 0 2 , 0 8 6 1 1 0 , 6 2 6 1 1 5 , 9 2 1 1 1 9 , 7 8 9 1 2 9 , 8 2 9 1 4 1 , 0 5 1 1 4 7 , 2 2 2 1 5 3 , 5 1 0 1 5 9 , 7 9 3 O t h e r T a x e s 1 9 , 0 8 3 2 1 , 0 6 9 2 4 , 0 4 6 2 8 , 8 9 5 2 9 , 9 0 6 3 0 , 9 5 3 3 2 , 0 3 6 3 3 , 1 5 8 3 4 , 3 1 8 O t h e r 2 1 , 9 2 6 3 8 , 2 3 5 4 8 , 7 9 9 4 1 , 8 0 9 4 1 , 8 0 9 4 1 , 8 0 9 4 1 , 8 0 9 4 1 , 8 0 9 4 1 , 8 0 9 To t a l E x p e n s e s $7 6 9 , 7 4 7 $8 4 6 , 2 1 7 $8 3 7 , 3 5 9 $8 6 2 , 5 0 8 $8 6 8 , 3 3 7 $8 9 6 , 3 5 9 $9 1 6 , 7 2 4 $9 3 7 , 5 8 5 $9 5 8 , 8 3 2 EB I T $ 1 9 0 , 6 6 7 $ 2 0 3 , 5 8 3 $ 1 9 8 , 6 7 0 $ 1 6 4 , 2 4 8 $ 2 6 7 , 9 2 3 $ 2 7 8 , 5 2 9 $ 2 7 5 , 9 9 7 $ 3 1 8 , 0 6 6 $ 3 2 5 , 3 4 7 Ot h e r I n c o m e ( 1 6 6 ) 1 5 , 9 6 4 1 8 , 1 7 3 2 2 , 0 0 7 6 , 3 1 6 ( 1 , 9 4 0 ) ( 8 3 5 ) 3 , 1 8 3 1 0 , 0 8 9 In t e r e s t E x p e n s e 7 3 , 0 5 6 7 2 , 8 1 0 7 5 , 1 1 4 7 1 , 5 2 6 6 5 , 3 3 6 7 2 , 8 8 0 7 6 , 0 6 1 8 0 , 5 2 8 8 5 , 1 6 9 Cu s t o m e r S h a r i n g 0 0 0 0 0 In c o m e T a x e s 1 9 , 2 0 0 2 2 , 3 6 2 ( 7 3 1 ) ( 5 2 , 1 3 3 ) 5 5 , 5 0 0 4 2 , 0 7 2 3 1 , 5 7 2 6 9 , 7 3 3 7 0 , 6 5 7 Ta x R a t e 1 6 % 1 5 % - 1 % - 4 5 % 2 7 % 2 1 % 1 6 % 2 9 % 2 8 % Ea r n i n g s In c o m e f r o m C o n t i n u i n g O p e r a t i o n s $ 9 8 , 2 4 5 $ 1 2 4 , 3 7 5 $ 1 4 2 , 4 6 0 $ 1 6 6 , 8 6 2 $ 1 5 3 , 4 0 4 $ 1 6 1 , 6 3 8 $ 1 6 7 , 5 2 9 $ 1 7 0 , 9 8 9 $ 1 7 9 , 6 1 0 Di s c o n t i n u e d O p e r a t i o n s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ad j u s t m e n t f o r N o n - C o n t r o l l i n g I n t e r e s t 1 6 9 ( 2 5 ) 3 3 8 ( 1 6 9 ) Ne t I n c o m e $ 9 8 , 4 1 4 $ 1 2 4 , 3 5 0 $ 1 4 2 , 7 9 8 $ 1 6 6 , 6 9 3 $ 1 5 3 , 4 0 4 $ 1 6 1 , 6 3 8 $ 1 6 7 , 5 2 9 $ 1 7 0 , 9 8 9 $ 1 7 9 , 6 1 0 Av g . D i l u t e d S h a r e s O u t s t a n d i n g 4 5 , 3 7 9 4 7 , 1 8 2 4 8 , 3 4 0 4 9 , 5 5 8 5 0 , 2 2 4 5 0 , 5 3 3 5 0 , 8 2 5 5 1 , 1 0 1 5 1 , 3 6 1 EP S $ 2 . 1 7 $ 2 . 6 4 $ 2 . 9 5 $ 3 . 3 6 $ 3 . 0 5 $ 3 . 2 0 $ 3 . 3 0 $ 3 . 3 5 $ 3 . 5 0 No n - R e c u r r i n g 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 Op e r a t i n g E P S * $ 2 . 1 7 $ 2 . 6 4 $ 2 . 9 5 $ 3 . 3 6 $ 3 . 0 5 $ 3 . 2 0 $ 3 . 3 0 $ 3 . 3 5 $ 3 . 5 0 Su p p l e m e n t a l I n f o r m a t i o n 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 E 20 1 3 E 2 0 1 4 E 2 0 1 5 E 2 0 1 6 E Di v i d e n d I n f o r m a t i o n Di v i d e n d s P e r S h a r e - Y E R a t e $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 3 2 $ 1 . 4 5 $ 1 . 6 0 $ 1 . 7 6 $ 1 . 9 3 Di v i d e n d s P a i d P e r S h a r e 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 0 1 . 3 2 1 . 4 5 1 . 6 0 1 . 7 6 1 . 9 3 Pa y o u t R a t i o 5 5 % 4 6 % 4 1 % 3 6 % 4 3 % 4 5 % 4 8 % 5 3 % 5 5 % St a t i s t i c s EB I T D A / S h a r e $ 6 . 4 5 $ 6 . 6 6 $ 6 . 5 1 $ 5 . 7 3 $ 7 . 9 2 $ 8 . 3 0 $ 8 . 3 3 $ 9 . 2 3 $ 9 . 4 5 Ca s h F l o w / S h a r e 3 . 0 2 6 . 0 4 6 . 3 4 6 . 2 7 5 . 0 5 5 . 2 4 5 . 1 4 5 . 6 9 5 . 7 4 Bo o k V a l u e / S h a r e ( y e a r e n d ) 2 7 . 7 5 2 9 . 1 6 3 1 . 0 0 3 3 . 1 8 3 4 . 9 5 3 6 . 7 4 3 8 . 4 8 4 0 . 1 1 4 1 . 7 3 Av e r a g e B o o k V a l u e / S h a r e 2 7 . 2 7 2 8 . 4 5 3 0 . 0 8 3 2 . 0 9 3 4 . 0 6 3 5 . 8 4 3 7 . 6 1 3 9 . 3 0 4 0 . 9 2 RO E o f I D A C O R P 8 . 0 % 9 . 3 % 9 . 8 % 1 0 . 5 % 9 . 0 % 8 . 9 % 8 . 8 % 8 . 5 % 8 . 5 % RO E o f I d a h o P o w e r C o m p a n 8. 2 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 0 . 5 % 1 1 . 2 % 1 0 . 0 % 9 . 9 % 9 . 7 % 9 . 5 % 9 . 4 % *2 0 1 2 E - 2 0 1 5 E " P u r c h a s e d P o w e r " l i n e i t e m i n c l u d e s e s t i m a t e d f u e l , t h i r d p a r t y t r a n s m i s s i o n a n d P C A c o s t s . *O p e r a t i n g E P S e x c l u d e n o n - r e c u r r i n g i t e m s ; 0 9 E P S i n c l u d e s b o n u s d e p r e c i a t i o n b e n e f i t , t a x s e t t l e m e n t a n d O r e g o n d e f e r r a l ; ' 1 0 -1 1 i n c l u d e v a r i o u s t a x b e n e f i t s . So u r c e : W e l l s F a r g o S e c u r i t i e s , L L C e s t i m a t e s a n d c o m p a n y f i l i n g s Ea r n i n g s M o d e l WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC IDACORP, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 7 Ca s h F l o w M o d e l ( i n t h o u s a n d s ) 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 3 E 2 0 1 4 E 2 0 1 5 E 2 0 1 6 E Op e r a t i n g C a s h F l o w Ne t I n c o m e $ 9 8 , 2 4 5 $ 1 2 4 , 3 7 5 $ 1 4 2 , 4 6 0 $ 1 6 6 , 8 6 2 $ 1 5 3 , 4 0 4 $ 1 6 1 , 6 3 8 $ 1 6 7 , 5 2 9 1 7 0 , 9 8 9 1 7 9 , 6 1 0 D e p r e c i a t i o n & A m o r t i z a t i o n 1 0 9 , 8 4 2 1 1 8 , 6 0 0 12 1 , 8 4 9 1 2 4 , 6 5 9 1 3 9 , 8 2 9 1 5 1 , 05 1 1 5 7 , 2 2 2 1 6 3 , 5 1 0 1 6 9 , 7 9 3 N e t O t h e r ( 3 9 , 4 5 7 ) 7 8 , 2 4 0 1 9 , 5 2 0 1 7 , 9 2 6 ( 39 , 9 1 5 ) ( 4 8 , 3 7 4 ) ( 6 4 , 2 6 3 ) ( 4 4 , 5 5 0 ) ( 5 5 , 3 1 2 ) W o r k i n g C a p i t a l ( 3 2 , 1 1 7 ) ( 3 6 , 7 9 0 ) 2 1 , 5 7 1 7 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 Ne t O p e r a t i n g C a s h F l o w $ 1 3 6 , 5 1 3 $ 2 8 4 , 4 2 5 $ 3 0 5 , 4 0 0 $ 3 10 , 2 4 3 $ 2 5 3 , 3 1 7 $ 2 6 4 , 3 1 4 $ 2 6 0 , 4 8 9 $ 2 8 9 , 9 5 0 $ 2 9 4 , 0 9 1 In v e s t i n g C a s h F l o w Co n s t r u c t i o n E x p e n d i t u r e s ( $ 2 4 3 , 5 4 4 ) ( $ 2 5 1 , 9 3 7 ) ( $ 3 3 8 , 2 5 2 ) ( $ 33 7 , 7 6 5 ) ( $ 2 3 6 , 5 0 0 ) ( $ 2 3 0 , 6 6 7 ) ( $ 2 6 6 , 6 6 7 ) ( $ 3 5 5 , 2 1 7 ) ( $ 3 8 1 , 2 9 8 ) In v e s t m e n t s i n A f f o r d a b l e H o u s i n g P r o j e c t s ( 8 , 3 1 4 ) ( 5 , 8 0 2 ) ( 1 3 , 3 9 0 ) ( 1 , 5 5 8 ) ( 1 , 5 5 8 ) ( 1 , 5 5 8 ) ( 1 , 5 5 8 ) ( 1 , 5 5 8 ) ( 1 , 5 5 8 ) Ot h e r 4 9 , 0 3 4 1 5 , 3 3 4 2 3 , 3 0 8 6 , 9 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 Ne t I n v e s t i n g C a s h F l o w ($ 2 0 2 , 8 2 4 ) ( $ 2 4 2 , 4 0 5 ) ( $ 3 2 8 , 3 3 4 ) ( $ 3 3 2 , 3 5 8 ) ( $ 2 3 8 , 05 8 ) ( $ 2 3 2 , 2 2 5 ) ( $ 2 6 8 , 2 2 5 ) ( $ 3 5 6 , 7 7 5 ) ( $ 3 8 2 , 8 5 6 ) Fi n a n c i n g C a s h F l o w Is s u a n c e o f L T D e b t $ 1 2 0 , 0 0 0 $ 2 3 0 , 0 0 0 $ 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 $0 $ 1 4 0 , 0 0 0 $ 1 1 0 , 0 0 0 $ 8 5 , 0 0 0 $ 1 6 0 , 0 0 0 $ 1 5 0 , 0 0 0 Is s u a n c e o f T e r m L o a n s $ 1 7 0 , 0 0 0 ( $ 1 7 0 , 0 0 0 ) $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 Re t i r e m e n t o f L T D e b t ( 1 1 , 3 4 9 ) ( 8 9 , 1 7 4 ) ( 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 1 21 , 0 6 4 ) ( 1 0 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 7 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 1 , 0 6 4 ) Pu r c h a s e o f P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l B o n d s ( 1 6 6 , 1 0 0 ) 1 6 6 , 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Re t i r e m e n t o f P r e f e r r e d S t o c k o f I D P o w e r 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Di v i d e n d s o n C o m m o n S t o c k ( 5 4 , 2 3 9 ) ( 5 6 , 8 2 0 ) ( 5 7 , 8 7 2 ) (5 9 , 6 6 8 ) ( 6 6 , 1 6 3 ) ( 7 3 , 2 2 9 ) ( 81 , 0 1 9 ) ( 8 9 , 6 0 5 ) ( 9 9 , 0 6 8 ) ST D e b t ( 3 9 , 0 9 5 ) ( 9 3 , 6 0 0 ) 1 3 , 1 5 0 ( 1 2 , 7 0 0 ) 0 ( 2 0 , 0 0 0 ) 0 0 0 Co m m o n S t o c k I s s u e d 5 0 , 8 6 3 2 4 , 3 2 8 4 8 , 6 4 4 17 , 5 0 1 1 2 , 5 0 0 1 2 , 5 0 0 1 2 , 5 0 0 1 2 , 5 0 0 1 2 , 5 0 0 Ac q u i s i t i o n o f T r e a s u r y S h a r e s ( 3 0 4 ) ( 1 , 4 4 1 ) ( 8 6 9 ) ( 1 , 9 3 3 ) 0 0 0 0 0 Ot h e r ( 2 , 6 0 3 ) ( 7 , 2 5 4 ) ( 3 , 3 6 5 ) ( 8 8 5 ) 0 0 0 0 0 Ne t F i n a n c i n g C a s h F l o w $6 7 , 1 7 3 $ 2 , 1 3 9 $ 1 9 8 , 6 2 4 ( $ 1 7 8 , 7 4 9 ) ( $ 1 4 ,7 2 7 ) ( $ 4 1 , 7 9 3 ) $ 1 5 , 4 1 7 $ 8 1 , 8 3 1 $ 6 2 , 3 6 8 Ne t C h a n g e i n C a s h $ 8 6 2 $ 4 4 , 1 5 9 $ 1 7 5 , 6 9 0 ( $ 20 0 , 8 6 4 ) $ 5 3 2 ( $ 9 , 7 0 3 ) $ 7 , 6 8 2 $ 1 5 , 0 0 6 ( $ 2 6 , 3 9 6 ) Ca s h a t b e g i n n i n g o f p e r i o d 7 , 9 6 6 8 , 8 2 8 5 2 ,9 8 7 2 2 8 , 6 7 7 2 7 , 8 1 3 2 8 , 3 4 5 1 8 , 6 4 2 2 6 , 3 2 3 4 1 , 3 2 9 Ca s h a t e n d o f p e r i o d $ 8 , 8 2 8 $ 5 2 , 9 8 7 $ 2 2 8 , 6 77 $ 2 7 , 8 1 3 $ 2 8 , 3 4 5 $ 1 8 , 6 4 2 $2 6 , 3 2 3 $ 4 1 , 3 2 9 $ 1 4 , 9 3 3 Ca p i t a l S t r u c t u r e 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 3 E 2 0 1 4 E 2 0 1 5 E 2 0 1 6 E Co m m o n E q u i t y $1 , 3 0 2 , 4 3 7 $ 1 , 3 9 7 , 3 3 5 $ 1 , 5 3 2 , 1 1 3 $ 1 ,6 5 7 , 6 5 4 $ 1 , 7 5 7 , 3 9 4 $ 1 , 8 5 8 , 3 0 3 $ 1 ,9 5 7 , 3 1 4 $ 2 , 0 5 1 , 1 9 8 $ 2 , 1 4 4 , 2 4 0 Lo n g - T e r m D e b t 1, 1 8 3 , 4 5 1 1 , 4 0 9 , 7 3 0 1 , 4 8 8 , 2 8 7 1 , 3 8 7 , 5 5 0 1 , 5 2 7 ,5 5 0 1 , 5 6 6 , 4 8 6 1 , 6 5 0 , 4 2 2 1 , 8 0 9 , 3 5 8 1 , 9 5 8 , 2 9 4 Sh o r t - T e r m D e b t 23 7 , 7 7 8 63 , 0 9 0 18 9 , 4 7 2 15 5 , 2 6 4 54 , 2 0 0 54 , 2 0 0 54 , 2 0 0 54 , 2 0 0 54 , 2 0 0 To t a l C a p i t a l i z a t i o n $ 2 , 7 2 3 , 6 6 6 $ 2 , 8 7 0 , 15 5 $ 3 , 2 0 9 , 8 7 2 $ 3 , 2 0 0 , 4 6 8 $ 3 , 33 9 , 1 4 4 $ 3 , 4 7 8 , 9 8 9 $ 3 , 6 6 1 , 9 3 6 $ 3 , 9 1 4 , 7 5 6 $ 4 , 1 5 6 , 7 3 4 % E q u i t y 48 4 9 4 8 5 2 5 3 5 3 5 3 5 2 5 2 % L o n g - T e r m D e b t 43 4 9 4 6 4 3 4 6 4 5 4 5 4 6 4 7 % S h o r t - T e r m D e b t 9 2 6 5 2 2 1 1 1 So u r c e : W e l l s F a r g o S e c u r i t i e s , L L C e s t i m a t e s a n d c o m p a n y f i l i n g s WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 8 Required Disclosures $19.00 $21.00 $23.00 $25.00 $27.00 $29.00 $31.00 $33.00 $35.00 $37.00 $39.00 $41.00 $43.00 $45.00 $47.00 $49.00 4/2 1 / 0 9 5/1 9 / 0 9 6/1 6 / 0 9 7/1 4 / 0 9 8/1 1 / 0 9 9/8 / 0 9 10 / 6 / 0 9 11 / 3 / 0 9 12 / 1 / 0 9 12 / 2 9 / 0 9 1/2 6 / 1 0 2/2 3 / 1 0 3/2 3 / 1 0 4/2 0 / 1 0 5/1 8 / 1 0 6/1 5 / 1 0 7/1 3 / 1 0 8/1 0 / 1 0 9/7 / 1 0 10 / 5 / 1 0 11 / 2 / 1 0 11/ 3 0 / 1 0 12 / 2 8 / 1 0 1/2 5 / 1 1 2/2 2 / 1 1 3/2 2 / 1 1 4/1 9 / 1 1 5/1 7 / 1 1 6/1 4 / 1 1 7/1 2 / 1 1 8/9 / 1 1 9/6 / 1 1 10 / 4 / 1 1 11 / 1 / 1 1 11 / 2 9 / 1 1 12 / 2 7 / 1 1 1/2 4 / 1 2 2/2 1 / 1 2 3/2 0 / 1 2 4/1 7 / 1 2 Se c u r i t y P r i c e ID ACORP, Inc. (IDA) 3-yr. Price PerformanceIDACOR P, Inc. (ID A) 3-yr. Price Performance Date Date Publication Price ($) Rating Code Val. Rng. Low Val. Rng. High Close Price ($) 4/21/2009 Kalton 4/21/2009 NA 2 26.00 27.00 23.15 z 8/6/2009 27.79 2 27.00 29.00 27.79 z 9/10/2009 28.37 2 29.00 30.00 28.37 z 11/10/2009 29.52 2 30.00 31.00 29.52 z 12/14/2009 31.18 2 32.00 33.00 31.54 z 2/25/2010 33.94 2 35.00 36.00 33.89 z 8/6/2010 35.75 2 36.00 37.00 36.05 z 10/29/2010 37.00 2 38.00 39.00 36.80 cz 11/15/2010 36.34 1 40.00 41.00 36.52 z 2/9/2011 38.22 1 41.00 42.00 38.05 z 5/5/2011 38.91 1 42.00 43.00 38.91 z 7/19/2011 39.83 1 43.00 44.00 39.84 z 8/4/2011 36.47 1 41.00 42.00 36.47 dz 10/24/2011 40.51 2 42.00 43.00 40.43 z 11/4/2011 41.33 2 43.00 44.00 40.43 z 1/3/2012 42.41 2 44.00 45.00 41.80 „ 2/22/2012 Akers Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Reuters data Symbol Key Rating Code Key d Rating Downgrade ‹ Initiation, Resumption, Drop or Suspend 1 Outperform/Buy SR Suspended c Rating Upgrade „ Analyst Change 2 Market Perform/Hold NR Not Rated z Valuation Range Change ˆ Split Adjustment 3 Underperform/Sell NE No Estimate Additional Information Available Upon Request I certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC maintains a market in the common stock of IDACORP, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from IDACORP, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. in the past 12 months. ƒ IDACORP, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided investment banking services to IDACORP, Inc. ƒ IDACORP, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided noninvestment banking securities-related services to IDACORP, Inc. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC IDACORP, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 9 ƒ IDACORP, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided nonsecurities services to IDACORP, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. in the past 12 months. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates may have a significant financial interest in IDACORP, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an affiliate of IDACORP, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for an affiliate of IDACORP, Inc. within the past 12 months. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from an affiliate of IDACORP, Inc. in the past 12 months. IDA: Risks to our valuation include project delays/cancellations, negative regulatory developments and economic weakness. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. STOCK RATING 1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months. BUY 2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12 months. HOLD 3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL SECTOR RATING O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. 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