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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDA research note 04-16-13.pdf Please refer to pages 2-3 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. * D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security. RESEARCH NOTE Institutional Equity Research IDACORP, Inc. April 16, 2013 IDA* – NYSE Rating: Buy Price: (4/15/13) $47.18 Price Targets: 12-18 month: $53.00 5-year: $60.00 Industry: Utilities Michael Bates 503.603.3045 mbates@dadco.com PCA Filing Reflects Weak Hydro Conditions  PCA filed in Idaho. On April 15th Idaho Power filed its annual Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) mechanism with regulators in Idaho, requesting a $140 million rate increase to mitigate headwinds related to weak stream flows into its hydro system (projected to be less than 65% of the historical average) and lower than expected revenue from surplus power sales. The IPUC (Idaho Public Utilities Commission) has 45 days to review the proposal, for an expected implementation date of June 1, 2013.   Limited impact on earnings outlook. We do not expect the weak outlook for hydrogeneration to materially impact earnings at IDA, with our confidence bolstered by the facts that: 1) the PCA mechanism mitigates the financial impact of volatility in power supply costs by deferring the unexpected variation between actual and forecasted power supply costs, with 95% allocated to customers and 5% to the utility’s shareholders; and 2) the proposed rate adjustment will not take effect until June 1, 2013.  BUY rated. Our $53 target equates to 15.7x our 2014 EPS estimate of $3.38. D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400  Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035  (503) 603-3000  (800) 755-7848  www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2013. All rights reserved. 2 Required Disclosures D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. Michael Bates, the research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions. I, Michael Bates, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Ratings Information D.A. Davidson & Co. Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform Risk adjusted return potential azbycx Over 15% total return expected on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months >0-15% return potential on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Likely to remain flat or lose value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Distribution of Ratings (as of 3/31/2013) Buy Hold Sell Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform and Distribution 52% 44% 4% Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos. Institutional Coverage 9% 5% 18% D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400  Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035  (503) 603-3000  (800) 755-7848  www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2013. All rights reserved. 3 Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria. Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends. Other Disclosures Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee, express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.