HomeMy WebLinkAboutIDA research note 04-16-13.pdf
Please refer to pages 2-3 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information.
* D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security.
RESEARCH NOTE
Institutional Equity Research
IDACORP, Inc.
April 16, 2013 IDA* – NYSE
Rating: Buy
Price: (4/15/13) $47.18
Price Targets: 12-18 month: $53.00
5-year: $60.00
Industry:
Utilities
Michael Bates
503.603.3045
mbates@dadco.com
PCA Filing Reflects Weak Hydro Conditions
PCA filed in Idaho. On April 15th Idaho Power filed its annual Power Cost
Adjustment (PCA) mechanism with regulators in Idaho, requesting a $140 million
rate increase to mitigate headwinds related to weak stream flows into its hydro
system (projected to be less than 65% of the historical average) and lower than
expected revenue from surplus power sales. The IPUC (Idaho Public Utilities
Commission) has 45 days to review the proposal, for an expected implementation
date of June 1, 2013.
Limited impact on earnings outlook. We do not expect the weak outlook for
hydrogeneration to materially impact earnings at IDA, with our confidence
bolstered by the facts that: 1) the PCA mechanism mitigates the financial impact
of volatility in power supply costs by deferring the unexpected variation between
actual and forecasted power supply costs, with 95% allocated to customers and
5% to the utility’s shareholders; and 2) the proposed rate adjustment will not take
effect until June 1, 2013.
BUY rated. Our $53 target equates to 15.7x our 2014 EPS estimate of $3.38.
D.A. Davidson & Co.
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Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2013. All rights reserved.
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Required Disclosures
D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the
next three months.
D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. Michael Bates, the
research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other
factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated
for involvement in specific investment banking transactions.
I, Michael Bates, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the common
stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Ratings Information
D.A. Davidson & Co. Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform
Risk adjusted return potential azbycx
Over 15% total return
expected on a risk adjusted
basis over next 12-18 months
>0-15% return potential
on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months
Likely to remain flat or lose
value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months
Distribution of Ratings (as of 3/31/2013) Buy Hold Sell
Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform
and Distribution 52% 44% 4%
Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos.
Institutional Coverage 9% 5% 18%
D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform
D.A. Davidson & Co.
Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 (503) 603-3000 (800) 755-7848 www.dadavidson.com
Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2013. All rights reserved.
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Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based
upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria.
Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic
fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends.
Other Disclosures
Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any
action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original
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