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HomeMy WebLinkAboutEEI 2011.pdf Please see page 8 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. November 10, 2011 Equity Research EEI Conference Wrap-Up Industry And Company Takeaways • Summary. We hosted one-on-one meetings with many of our covered electric utility companies on November 6-8 at the EEI Financial Conference in Orlando, Florida. In this note we outline a few industry takeaways as well as key company- specific takeaways. • Regulated Hot Topic: ROEs. Chatter about pressure on state-jurisdictional and FERC-allowed ROEs continued in light of the low interest rate environment. The FERC debate was divided into two camps with some advocating that allowed ROEs remain in the “range of reasonableness” with others of the opinion that modest downward revisions of existing ROEs are possible. On the state level, most were in agreement that allowed ROEs could moderate, but many companies are pursuing mechanisms/principles that would reduce regulatory lag, which should help mitigate the impact of lower allowed ROEs on earned ROEs. • Diversified Hot Topic: Power & Capacity Markets. Though not unanimous, most diversified management teams believe that proposed environmental regulations are largely reflected in forward power prices. In terms of capacity prices, companies are expecting the next auction to price higher than the prior results due, in part, to continued unit retirements and environmental costs, as well as potential changes to demand response (DR) bidding behavior. • What They Didn’t Say. Perhaps just as interesting as the themes we picked up at the conference were the topics that didn’t get much attention. For example, though the topic of M&A did come up in a few meetings, it wasn’t at the forefront of the chatter as it was at EEI 2010. Also, investors appear to have moved past concerns about potential implications from the Fukushima event on the U.S. nuclear industry. Utilities Neil Kalton, CFA, Senior Analyst(314) 955-5239 / neil.kalton@wellsfargo.com Sarah Akers, CFA, Associate Analyst (314) 955-6209 / sarah.akers@wellsfargo.com Jonathan Reeder, Associate Analyst (314) 955-2462 / jonathan.reeder@wellsfargo.com WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 2 Alliant Energy (LNT/$41.89/Market Perform) • Our EEI meeting focused on management's core rate base growth strategy driven by new generation (gas-fired and wind capacity) and environmental-related spending. Separately, LNT expressed frustration with the underperformance of the RMT business in 2011, which suffered from an issue with a subcontractor. With management's focus prudently on IPL's and WPL's attractive and substantial regulated growth opportunities, we did not get the sense that LNT views RMT as a core business from a strategic standpoint. American Electric Power (AEP/$38.96/Outperform) • Ohio--AEP remains confident that the Electric Security Plan (ESP) settlement will be approved in mid-December. This would then lead to pool reconstruction, which could take at least a year. After assumed asset sales to pool members and unit retirements, AEP expects to have roughly 9,000 MW of unregulated generation. Taking into account likely FERC-based long-term contracts, AEP expects Ohio generation to be roughly 75% hedged in 2015. Once the ESP and pool situations play out, management plans to take a closer look at the risk profile of merchant fleet and consider strategic options. The near-term focus is clearly on Ohio, which could put other strategic moves (such as the sale of underperforming subsidiaries) on the back burner for a couple years. • Analyst Day--AEP plans to provide multiyear EPS guidance at the 2012 analyst day, which we expect will be consistent with a 4-6% annual EPS growth rate. Duke Energy (DUK/$20.71/Market Perform) / Progress Energy (PGN/$53.04/Market Perform) • We came away from our meting with the impression that a year-end merger closing probably won’t happen--likely one month or so delay. Bill Johnson’s primary focus when he takes the reins of the combined company likely will be Edwardsport and Crystal River 3. Strategic decisions such as how the commercial, international, and renewables businesses fit in the combined company’s strategy likely won’t be looked at for 18-24 months. Management understands the argument that the segments detract attention away from a solid regulated core business strategy; however, diversification has its virtues as well, as evidenced by DUK’s results in 2011. • DUK is adamant in its belief that it handled the construction and cost aspects of the Edwardsport project prudently. Management indicated a settlement is still possible; however, the two sides are very far apart. DUK would not be willing to settle at the previously approved $2.35B cost level. • CR3 is too important to Progess Energy Florida’s (PEF) generation mix not to be repaired, especially with 850 MWs of unscrubbed coal slated for retirement. The company will need the FPSC to approve regulatory recovery of not only replacement power costs that exceed Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL) limits but likely some of the capital costs. PGN wants to take the most prudent course of repair this second time around and is asking NEIL to cover the repair of all six bays of concrete, not just the two damaged ones. • Ohio ESP settlement is a fair deal that buys time in figuring out how the business fits into the combined company’s strategy. The impression was that if DUK receives an offer that is reflective of the assets’ value (well-positioned scrubbed coal capacity combined with DUK’s belief that there is an upward trajectory in capacity in power prices in the region), the company would likely sell as it would only be a very small part of the combined company. • Working on reaching a settlement agreement in the Carolinas rate case prior to the November 28 hearings. Public staff’s recommendation was not surprising as it focused on the ROE and capital structure. We continue to believe a constructive settlement is likely. • PEF rate filing next year looks like it could be for a roughly 10% rate increase. Questions regarding rate base inclusion of CR3 and Levy County will be raised since CR3 will likely not return to service until 2014 and Levy won’t likely move forward immediately after the combined operating license (COL) is issued. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EEI Conference Wrap-Up EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 3 Entergy (ETR/$68.77/Outperform) • We thought the most interesting topic discussed was ETR's strategic options related to the utility's transmission assets. Management is weighing all options but the preferred path appears to be the outright sale of the transmission assets to an independent entity. We think this would be the most value-additive of all of the various options assuming tax leakage could be substantially mitigated or avoided. ETR's transmission assets, which are located in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas total approximately $2B. While there is not a specific timeline, we think there will be significant clarity on this issue within the next 6-12 months. We are deeply intrigued by this development as we believe such a transaction could be meaningfully accretive to ETR's EPS power. However, the discussion raises a lot of questions (regulatory receptiveness, tax issues, optimal capital structure if transmission is spun-off, etc.) Exelon (EXC/$44.66/Market Perform) • The merger with Constellation Energy (CEG/$40.11/Market Perform) remains on track to close in early 2012 with the critical regulatory approval path being Maryland. EXC expressed optimism that their proposal to divest 2,648 MW of baseload generation would address any lingering market power concerns. The primary hurdle in Maryland is the level of renewables that EXC will commit to--EXC has proposed to develop 25 MW while the Maryland Energy Administration would prefer in excess of 400 MW. While we don't know how the renewable debate will end, we don't expect the deal will be derailed over renewables. • EXC plans to host an analyst day once the merger is completed. We expect 2012 EPS guidance will be initiated and forward gross margin guidance will be made consistent with EXC's current disclosure methodology. New Energy's EPS contribution is not expected to be broken out separately. Instead, the marketing margin would be reflected in the hedged and open gross margin guidance, which should provide insight into the expected revenue synergies. • We expect EXC will remain on the prowl for additional merchant asset acquisitions to help round out its fleet, which is currently predominantly baseload. • While EXC did not provide specific estimates for the May 2012 RPM auction for the delivery year 2015-16, management expects the auction to price higher in both the east and the west versus the 2011 auction. Key drivers include additional retirements as the industry gains more clarity on environmental regulations along with demand response (DR) bidders adopting a different bidding approach given a greater likelihood that they will be called on for their "capacity." FirstEnergy (FE/$45.29/Outperform) • Following the sale of Signal Peak, management appears comfortable with the state of the balance sheet and indicated that incremental asset sales were not on the table. In the past, FE had indicated that it might consider the divestiture of its transmission assets (ATSI, TrAIL and development interest in PATH). However, the company clearly views these assets as core and very much likes the low risk nature of the transmission business. • Given market illiquidity, FE does not believe that the forward power curves (we took to mean 2015 and beyond), reflect much value for pending environmental regulations. FE also thinks that the May 2012 RPM auction will price higher than last year given incremental retirements and DR. IDACORP (IDA/$40.20/Market Perform) • Regulatory Update--We have been encouraged by improved regulatory principles in Idaho and the recent settlement agreement. Further, the Idaho Commission is open to an accelerated schedule for Idaho Power’s ADITC extension application, including a November 30 workshop. We view the application as balanced from a customer/shareholder perspective and would view approval favorably. • Capex/Financing Outlook--We expect 2012 and 2013 to be relatively light capex years as Langley Gulch goes online in mid-2012 and construction of Boardman-to-Hemingway (B2H) ramps in 2014 at the earliest. IDA is working on permitting/siting for the transmission line and hopes to have a draft environmental impact statement (EIS) by next summer. The 450 MW B2H line is needed to access generation resources in Oregon (8,000-10,000 MW of predominately gas and hydro generation), WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 4 which would be available to IDA’s summer-peaking load as west coast territories are winter-peaking. Importantly, if B2H is not constructed, Idaho Power could pursue a second unit at Langley Gulch. Also on the drawing board is an upgrade of the Shoshone Falls facility. Based on the capex outlook, we do not expect IDA will need to issue equity beyond dividend reinvestment and employee-related plans (about $10MM per year). ITC Holdings (ITC/$73.71/Outperform) • In response to the growing concerns about a potential Section 206 rate challenge, management reiterated a firm belief that the ROEs for all of their operating utilities are well within FERC's zone of reasonableness. • The MISO MVP process continues to move forward and it sounds like ITC has considerable line of sight into not only the likelihood for the IA projects (estimated to cost $1B), but how much ITC would do relative to Mid-American (the lines traverse both ITC's and Mid-American's service territories. While there is still the potential for some fluidity, it sounds like the capex refresh at the December 5 analyst day will reflect meaningfully higher capex for the "North Central" region. • The SPP's ITP-10 planning process includes a number of segments that ITC has been championing. Again, while there is a chance of fluidity in the process--perhaps more so than in the MISO MVP process--it sounds like the capex refresh could reflect meaningfully higher capex in the "South Central" region than last year. • There was no real change in management's tone around M&A opportunities as the company believes that longer-term trends such as environmental spending could cause some integrated utilities to rethink the ownership of transmission. That said, it did not sound like there was anything imminent on the M&A front. NextEra (NEE/$55.53/Outperform) • NEE emphasized that the five-year estimated EPS CAGR of 5-7% was not contingent on any additional wind additions in the U.S. beyond 2012 or new solar beyond already announced projects. • On the question of the extension of renewable tax credits post-2012, management believes that given the politically charged environment that legislation is unlikely to be passed prior to late 2012 (the lame duck session). While NEE acknowledged the political situation and deficit concerns, the company pointed out that the failure to extend the tax credits could jeopardize 100,000+ jobs and that many of these jobs are in Republican-dominated states. Bottom line: there could be broader bipartisan support than some might expect. • If the production tax credit (PTC) is not extended, then NEE thinks the U.S. wind market would drop off significantly though NEE could have enhanced acquisition opportunities as smaller developers are forced out of the market. • FPL, the regulated utility, continues to prep for a base rate filing in 2012 for new rates in 2013. We did not get the sense--based on the likely level of the rate request and constructive changes at the FPSC--that the rate proceeding would be anywhere near as contentious as the 2008-09 rate proceeding. Management also expressed hope that rider mechanisms for new generation could be re- implemented--previously FPL recovered CWIP for new generation through the GBRA mechanism. • While an incremental solar program failed to gain legislative approval in Florida in 2011, management does not believe that new solar is dead in the state. There continues to be meaningful support for such a program and recent declines in solar costs help the case. This could come up again in the Florida legislative session in H2 2012. Regulated solar could be a $1+ billion regulated investment opportunity for FPL (not currently in guidance). Northeast Utilities (NU/$34.09/Market Perform) / NSTAR (NST/$44.55/Market Perform) • Merger Update--The Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) rescheduled oral arguments on the Department of Energy Resources’ (DOER) motion to delay proceedings in order to further vet the costs/benefits. Parties hope to be able to narrow the issues by the November 17 oral arguments. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EEI Conference Wrap-Up EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 5 • Distribution ROEs--We are encouraged by the improvement in earned distribution ROEs and we continue to believe that NU can stay out of rate cases (excluding NSTAR) for several years due, in part, to the allocation of merger synergies. • Capex--NU’s new five-year (2012-16) capex projection of $5.7B is below the prior (2011-15) plan of $6.5B. While lower capex generally means lower earnings power, we highlight that the mix of the spend is more heavily skewed toward transmission, which we view favorably given generally higher allowed and earned ROEs. NU added more than $400MM of new reliability projects to the five-year plan. Northwestern Corp. (NWE/$33.86/Outperform) • Issued 2012 EPS drivers which amount to a range of ($0.05)-$0.20 EPS off of 2011’s adjusted base of $2.30-2.40. Largely in line with expectations and consistent with our $2.40 estimate. Management intends to tighten the range and issue official 2012 guidance in February. More substantial EPS growth is likely to materialize in 2013 as recovery will be underway of new generation (Montana wind and South Dakota peaker), South Dakota environmental investment and potentially 500-kV upgrade and additional natural gas reserves. • Management does not think Invenergy’s claims in the Spion Kop preapproval docket merit much consideration or concern. Believe the major issue is the allowed ROE and capital structure. NWE is optimistic it can keep an ROE in the 10-10.25% range as the Montana electric and natural gas T&D rate case was settled at a 10.25% ROE not that long ago. Hearings are scheduled to begin December 14. We highlight that the project ROE would only be in effect until the next Montana rate case, which is likely to be filed in 2013. Thus, a suboptimal ROE in the preapproval stage wouldn’t be catastrophic. • Additional natural gas reserve purchases prior to MPSC approval of the Battle Creek acquisition would likely be relatively small in size as well. Based on conversations with MPSC staff, management believes regulators are comfortable with this strategy. Management believes the current environment is attractive for acquiring natural gas reserves. Pepco Holdings (POM/$19.53/Market Perform) • Regulatory Update--While the Maryland Work Group did not result in agreement on regulatory lag mechanisms, management was encouraged by the dialogue and appeared confident that the proposals could be adopted in the upcoming rate case. POM was not particularly concerned that the lack of consensus out of the Work Group would have negative implications in Delaware or New Jersey. • Reliability Update--POM received high marks following hurricane Irene and highlighted the benefit of smart meters during restoration efforts. We believe this is a testament to the company’s reliability investment program and could help garner regulatory/political support as well as build goodwill with customers. • MAPP--POM believes that PJM remains supportive of the MAPP project. All eyes are on the retooling of the Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP) process, which could move away from a brightline test. We will not likely have more clarity on the MAPP in-service date until the 2012 RTEP. Portland General Electric (POR/$24.69/Market Perform) • RFP Update--POR hopes to have short lists bids for the capacity/energy and renewables RFPs during Q3 2012. While the combination of the capacity and energy RFP makes it less likely, on the margin, that POR’s self-build gas peaking bid will prevail, the company believes it has a strong proposal and noted that there are not many sites big enough for a peaking and baseload gas unit with access to gas storage. We now believe that construction of a gas peaker would conclude in mid-to-late 2014 (versus our previous expectation of late 2013). We continue to assume that the baseload (energy) gas RFP is satisfied with a PPA and that POR constructs 50% of the renewable RFP. The renewable RFP is designed to meet the 15% by 2015 renewable standard, but because the company is generating about 10% from renewables (above the 5% by 2011 requirement), POR is booking renewable energy credits (RECs), which could delay the need for additional renewables by a couple years. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 6 • Cascade Crossing--While construction of a baseload unit at Carti would bolster the need for Cascade Crossing, POR believes there is a case for the line without Carti (perhaps single circuit rather than double) and plans to host and open season. The line, which would help integrate wind resources, would likely be state regulated and would be subject to traditional rate case recovery. • Rate Case--POR tentatively plans to file a general rate case in 2013 for new rates in 2014 even though a new peaker would not likely be complete by year-end 2013. The case would be driven, in part, by recovery of emission control investment at Boardman, and POR would consider ways to capture the peaking investment if/when it comes online (Oregon does not support single item rate filings). Southern Company (SO/$43.52/Outperform) • We came away from our meeting with an increased sense of confidence that SO has a good handle on the Vogtle and Edwardsport projects. • Rate base growth from environmental, nuclear and IGCC projects in conjunction with O&M flexibility can offset slower than normal customer and usage growth over the next few years without impacting EPS growth targets. However, groundwork for reasonable customer growth and usage exists given industrial activity of the region and continued observations of inelastic consumer demand patterns. • EPA rules have become more of a political battle rather than a focus on environmental and technical issues. Momentum continues to build behind the “why now?” argument given the state of the economy, the costs to comply and the feasibility of compliance. If baghouses are required under the Utility HAPs MACT rule, a 2018 compliance date remains necessary. If baghouses are not required then 2015 is achievable. Management reiterated that the lack of excess gas pipeline capacity in the Southeast to supply increased natural gas-fired generation is a major impediment to a 2015 compliance timeframe. Westar Energy (WR/$27.22/Outperform) • Rate Case Update--While we will not know the staff and other intervener positions until early 2012, reaction to the request has not been contentious outside of the Citizen’s Utility Ratepayer Board (CURB). ROE is a concern given the low interest rate environment, but we would be surprised if the ROE came in below 10%. Finally, while rate cases open the door for parties to scrutinize WR’s enhanced recovery mechanisms, such as the Environmental Cost Recovery Rider (ECRR), we are not overly concerned at this point as we believe the LaCygne decision was largely driven by GXP-specific issues. • Transmission--The Southwest Power Pool’s (SPP) ITP10, which will likely conclude in early 2012, could result in incremental transmission investment opportunities for WR. That said, management appeared modestly concerned with implications of the right-of-first-refusal (ROFR) provisions of FERC Order 1000, which is being vetted at the SPP and could result in a competitive bidding process for some of the lines. Kansas remains supportive of wind investment, though extension of the wind tax credits are key to continued wind (and wind-related transmission) development in Kansas. Wisconsin Energy (WEC/Outperform) • WEC targets annual total shareholder return (TSR) of 9% premised 5% annual EPS growth and a 4% dividend yield. Management believes the targeted TSR is better than the majority of electric utilities on a risk-adjusted basis. We tend to agree given management's proven track record of delivering on promised EPS growth, a consistent and constructive regulatory environment, and a strong cash flow outlook. • Share buybacks are an important part of the EPS growth equation. However, if incremental regulated investment opportunities arise that offer a superior return (purchase of state-owned steam plants in Wisconsin?), WEC will deploy capital toward those opportunities and scale back on the share repurchase program. • WEC expects the planned base rate increase request in 2012 for new rates in 2013 will be in the midsingle-digit percentage range. The company does not believe a possible recall election for Governor Walker will have any bearing on the rate proceeding as any such election will be well over when the rate case heats up. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EEI Conference Wrap-Up EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 7 • If Governor Walker is defeated in a potential recall election, the new Democratic governor could reignite renewable mandates in the state, which would likely accelerate renewable-related capital spending for WEC. Xcel Energy (XEL/$26.00/Outperform) • Regulatory Update--While ROEs could moderate in the current interest rate environment, XEL is taking steps to reduce regulatory lag, which, if successful, could result in net improved earned ROEs. Management remains optimistic that a settlement could be reached in Minnesota by year-end and plans to file a multiyear rate plan in Minnesota in November 2012 for new rates in 2013. Separately, XEL plans to file for new rates in Colorado by year-end 2011, including a request for interim rates and a multi-year plan. • Capital Plans--XEL plans to update the capital expenditure outlook at the December 1 analyst day. In addition to an environmental update, we are interested to see the moving pieces in the transmission outlook. While the San Luis project was recently withdrawn, the company believes the rest of the transmission projects in the current plan are solid and that XEL has a cost advantage over other transmission developers. Other moving pieces could include a wind project replacing Merricourt and/or a delay to the Black Dog repowering. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 8 Required Disclosures To view price charts for all companies rated in this document, please go to https://www.wellsfargo.com/research or write to 7 Saint Paul Street, 1st Floor, R1230-011, Baltimore, MD 21202 ATTN: Research Publications Additional Information Available Upon Request I certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC maintains a market in the common stock of Alliant Energy Corp., American Electric Power Company, Inc., Constellation Energy Group, Inc., Duke Energy Corp., Entergy Corp., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., ITC Holdings, NorthWestern Corporation, NSTAR, Pepco Holdings, Inc., Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company, Wisconsin Energy Corp. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates managed or comanaged a public offering of securities for Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company within the past 12 months. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Alliant Energy Corp., American Electric Power Company, Inc., Constellation Energy Group, Inc., Duke Energy Corp., Entergy Corp., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., IDACORP, Inc., ITC Holdings, NextEra Energy, Inc., Northeast Utilities, Pepco Holdings, Inc., Portland General Electric, Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company, Westar Energy, Inc., Wisconsin Energy Corp., Xcel Energy, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from Alliant Energy Corp., Duke Energy Corp., Entergy Corp., Exelon Corporation, NextEra Energy, Inc., Northeast Utilities, Pepco Holdings, Inc., Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company, Westar Energy, Inc., Wisconsin Energy Corp. in the past 12 months. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and/or its affiliates, have beneficial ownership of 1% or more of any class of the common stock of NextEra Energy, Inc., NorthWestern Corporation, Portland General Electric, Westar Energy, Inc. ƒ Alliant Energy Corp., Duke Energy Corp., Entergy Corp., Exelon Corporation, NextEra Energy, Inc., Northeast Utilities, Pepco Holdings, Inc., Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company, Westar Energy, Inc., Wisconsin Energy Corp. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided investment banking services to Alliant Energy Corp., Duke Energy Corp., Entergy Corp., Exelon Corporation, NextEra Energy, Inc., Northeast Utilities, Pepco Holdings, Inc., Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company, Westar Energy, Inc., Wisconsin Energy Corp. ƒ Alliant Energy Corp., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., IDACORP, Inc., Pepco Holdings, Inc., Portland General Electric, Progress Energy, Inc., Westar Energy, Inc., Xcel Energy, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided noninvestment banking securities-related services to Alliant Energy Corp., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., IDACORP, Inc., Pepco Holdings, Inc., Portland General Electric, Progress Energy, Inc., Westar Energy, Inc., Xcel Energy, Inc. ƒ American Electric Power Company, Inc., Constellation Energy Group, Inc., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., IDACORP, Inc., Pepco Holdings, Inc., Westar Energy, Inc., Wisconsin Energy Corp., Xcel Energy, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided nonsecurities services to American Electric Power Company, Inc., Constellation Energy Group, Inc., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., IDACORP, Inc., Pepco Holdings, Inc., Westar Energy, Inc., Wisconsin Energy Corp., Xcel Energy, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from Alliant Energy Corp., American Electric Power Company, Inc., Constellation Energy Group, Inc., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., IDACORP, Inc., Pepco Holdings, Inc., Portland General Electric, Progress Energy, Inc., Westar Energy, Inc., Wisconsin Energy Corp., Xcel Energy, Inc. in the past 12 months. ƒ A director or officer of Wells Fargo & Company serves on the board of directors of Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company. Wells Fargo & Company is the parent of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates may have a significant financial interest in Alliant Energy Corp., American Electric Power Company, Inc., Constellation Energy Group, Inc., Duke Energy Corp., Entergy Corp., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., IDACORP, Inc., ITC Holdings, NextEra Energy, Inc., Northeast Utilities, NorthWestern Corporation, NSTAR, Pepco Holdings, Inc., Portland General Electric, Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company, Westar Energy, Inc., Wisconsin Energy Corp., Xcel Energy, Inc. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EEI Conference Wrap-Up EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 9 ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an affiliate of Alliant Energy Corp., American Electric Power Company, Inc., Duke Energy Corp., Entergy Corp., Exelon Corporation, FirstEnergy Corp., IDACORP, Inc., NextEra Energy, Inc., Progress Energy, Inc., Southern Company. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for an affiliate of Duke Energy Corp., Entergy Corp., Exelon Corporation, NextEra Energy, Inc., Pepco Holdings, Inc., Southern Company within the past 12 months. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from an affiliate of IDACORP, Inc. in the past 12 months. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. STOCK RATING 1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months. BUY 2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12 months. HOLD 3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL SECTOR RATING O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. U=Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. VOLATILITY RATING V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the analyst expects significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading. EP: Risks include regulatory risks related to rate proceedings, potential regulatory pushback related to environmental spend/costs and economic risks. CEG: Risks to our valuation include failure to close the merger with EXC, increased competition in the retail marketing business, sensitivity to power prices and adverse regulatory outcomes. DUK: Risks include merger integration risk, regulatory risk, international exposure and unregulated coal fleet margins. ETR: Risks to our valuation range include commodity price sensitivity, nuclear relicensing and operational risks, and regulatory risks. EXC: Risks include commodity price sensitivity, failure to achieve cost and revenue synergies, and regulatory risk. FE: Risks include commodity price sensitivity, merger integration, and operational risks. IDA: Risks to our valuation include project delays/cancellations, negative regulatory developments and economic weakness. ITC: Risks to our valuation include adverse changes in the FERC's transmission policies and project delays or cancellations. LNT: Risks to our valuation include negative regulatory developments in Iowa or Wisconsin, inability to control operating costs and economic weakness. NEE: Risks include the ability to deliver on wind development plans, FL economic and regulatory concerns and, to a lesser degree, commodity price risk. NST: Risks include failure to close the merger with NU, risks related to the expiration of NST's rate plan, transmission line delays/cancellations and interest rate sensitivity. NU: Risks to our valuation include adverse regulatory decisions, regulatory clawbacks of merger-related cost synergies and project delays/cancellations related to NEEWS or Northern Pass. NWE: Chief risks include regulatory risk, a potentially large NOL liability, project timing risk and interest rate risk. PGN: Risks to shares include merger approval risk, regulatory risk, recessionary risks and rising interest rates. POM: Risks include regulatory risks associated with pending and upcoming rate filings, transmission project delays and interest rate sensitivity. POR: Risks include operating cost increases and a protracted economic downturn. SO: In our view, risks include regulatory risk, construction risk and potential exposure to adverse federal energy legislation. WEC: Risks to our valuation include regulatory risk and the impact of a protracted recession on sales and costs. WR: Risks to our valuation include customer and regulatory pushback to rising costs, risk related to the pending rate case and risk of an economic slowdown. XEL: Risks include regulatory risks related to pending and upcoming rate cases, a weaker than expected rebound in sales and cost pressures. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 10 As of: November 10, 2011 49% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Outperform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 41% of its Equity Research Outperform-rated companies. 48% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Market Perform. 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