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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC ValueEngine-Nov-17-2009.pdf Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA)Nov. 17, 2009 VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION & BASIC INFORMATION Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 1 Close Price Model Price Volume Sell Hold Buy 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Pr i c e .25 .50 .75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 Vo l u m e ( m i l l i o n ) ©ValuEngine.com 2009RECOMMENDATION negative neutral positive SELL HOLD BUY VALUENGINE RATING RECOMMENDATION FACTORS Value Rank Overall Rank top 19% Fair Value $31.91 top 46% 1Yr Target Price $30.73 top 11% P/E Ratio 12.8 top 21% Last 1-Y Return 5.94%btm 30% Market Cap(bil)$1.41 top 23% BASIC INFORMATION Last Trade $29.61 Trade Date 11/16/09 Market Cap(bil)$1.41092 Trailing P/E 12.8 Forward P/E 13.22 PEG Ratio n/a P/S Ratio 1.39 M/B Ratio 1.02 Sharpe Ratio -0.1 5-Y Avg Ann Return -1.86% Volatility 19.48% EPS Growth -3.17% Annual Dividend $1.20 Dividend Yield 4.05% LT Debt/Equity 0.93 Beta 0.39 VALUATION ANALYSIS IDA Today's Fair value: $31.91 7.22% undervalued Industry Electrical Utilities 4.90% undervalued Sector Public Utilities 1.79% undervalued FORECAST ANALYSIS Target Price Exp. Return 1-Month $29.66 0.17% 3-Month $29.81 0.67% 6-Month $29.96 1.19% 1-Year $30.73 3.78% 2-Year $33.46 13.01% 3-Year $37.38 26.23% Contact ValuEngine: ValuEngine, Inc. 100 Overlook Center, 2nd Floor Princeton, NJ 08540, U.S.A. (800) 381-5576 (T) support@ValuEngine.com www.ValuEngine.com VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION ValuEngine has issued a HOLD recommendation for IDACORP INC. on Nov. 17, 2009. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that IDACORP INC. has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE volatility and P/E ratio, but UNATTRACTIVE expected EPS growth and momentum. RATING OVERVIEW The ValuEngine Rating is an overall assessment of a stock's attractiveness. It combines the following five factors: 1. Fair market valuation 2. 1 year forecasted returns 3. Price/Earnings ratio 4. Momentum 5. Market capitalization Only two percent of the over 4,000 stocks that we cover receive the highest 5 rating. The ratings are the result of the cumulative of the above factors. As such, stocks with relatively poor results for any one of the five variables can still be attractive if the other four factors are strong enough. Top 5 rated stocks can be expected to outperform the overall market by 15% or more, with average annualized returns from Jan. 2000 through Jan. 2006 of over 30% per year. FAIR MARKET VALUATION PRICE Based on available data as of Nov. 17, 2009, we believe that IDA should be trading at $31.91. This makes IDA 7.22% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For IDA, we base this on actual earnings per share (EPS) for the previous four quarters of $2.31, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $2.24, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.26%. There are an additional 10 firm specific and interest rate related parameters, each playing a role in the valuation analysis. FORECASTED TARGET PRICES The predictive variables used in Valuengine's forecast target price models include both proprietary and well-established forecasting variables derived from credible financial research studies and publications. Our forecasting models capture, among other things, several important tendencies that stock prices consistently exhibit: Short-term price reversals, Intermediate-term momentum continuation, and Long-term price reversals. We use a distinct forecasting model for each time horizon and for every industry. We then apply the most advanced statistical/econometric techniques to ensure that our stock return forecasts are as reliable as possible. Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) DATA SUMMARY & MARKET RATIO BASED VALUATION Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 2 OPTIMAL BUY-SELL Based solely on the Historical Mispricing of IDA, the best time to buy would be below $28.72 (or valuation below - 10.00%). The best time to sell would be above $39.57 (or valuation above 24.00%). EVALUATION & RANKINGS Value Rank Valuation -7.22%55 12-Month Return 5.94%30 5-Y Avg Ann Rtn -1.86%59 Volatility 19.48%98 EPS Growth -3.17%18 Market Cap(bill)1.41 78 Sharpe Ratio -0.1 54 P/S Ratio 1.39 47 M/B Ratio 1.02 63 P/E Ratio 12.8 80 EVALUATION & RANKINGS SUMMARY Just as important as the percentages shown for our ten predictive variables for each stock is the way they are ranked against the 7000 plus stocks in our database. This is sometimes confusing to newcomers to ValuEngine. Each of these quantitative measurements is ranked on a scale of 1 to 100. Generally the higher the ranking, the more positive the influence each measurement has on the overall attractiveness of the stock. In other words a high rank is always better. Let's take them one by one: Valuation rank 55: 45% of stocks are more undervalued • Momentum rank 30: 70% of stocks have higher momentum • Sharpe Ratio rank 54: 46% of stocks have a higher Sharpe Ratio • 5-Year Average Annual Return 59: 41% of stocks have higher average annual return • Volatility rank 98: 2% of stocks have less volatility• EPS growth rank 18: 82% of stocks have greater projected EPS growth • Size rank 78: 22% of companies have higher market capitalization • P/E rank 80: 20% of stocks have lower P/E ratios• Price/Sales rank 47: 53% of stocks have lower price/sales ratios • Market/Book rank 63: 37% of stocks have lower market/book value ratios • MARKET RATIO BASED VALUATION Portfolio managers and professionals traditionally rely on market ratios to gauge whether a stock is fair valued or overvalued. On this page, we present such a valuation based on one of three market ratios: PEG (price to trailing 4 quarter earnings ratio, divided by the consensus analyst forecasted next year EPS growth), P/E (price to forward 4 quarter earnings ratio), and P/S ratio (price to trailing 4 quarter sales). Among the three, PEG is the most informative as it reflects both the price/earnings ratio and expected future EPS growth, while P/E is better than P/S. For each given stock, we apply the PEG to give a fair value assessment if both its trailing 4 quarter EPS and forecasted EPS growth rate are positive. If its forecasted EPS growth is negative but its forward 4 quarter EPS is positive, we apply the P/E to give a fair value for the stock as of today. Otherwise, we resort to the P/S to assess its fair value. To establish a valuation standard, we use both (i) the average historical market ratio of the stock over the past 10 years (or however long there is data available for the stock), and (ii) the average market ratio today of five comparable stocks in the same sector and from companies of similar size. These two alternative perspectives should give you a good idea about where this stock's valuation stands today. 1. Valuation Based on IDA's Past PE Over the past 10 years, IDA's average PE is 14.65. IDA earned $2.31 per share in its recent 4 quarters. The analyst consensus estimate is $2.24 for its 4 quarter forward EPS. IDA's current price sales ratio is 1.39. The following assessment is based on multiplying the historical PE with next 4 quarter EPS for IDA. Fair Value Historical Average PE 14.65 PE-Based Fair Value $32.82 2. Valuation Based on Comparables' PE IDA's comparables are ALE, AVA, CNL, HNP and POR. The current PE average of these comparables is 12.61. IDA earned $2.31 per share in its recent 4 quarters. The analyst consensus estimate is $2.24 for its 4-quarter- forward EPS. IDA's current price sales ratio is 1.39. The following assessment is based on multiplying comparable stocks' average PE today with IDA's next 4 quarter EPS. Comparables' PE Comparables Current PE ALE 13.75 AVA 11.48 CNL 12.61 HNP 12.19 POR 13.02 Fair Value Comparable Stocks' Avg PE 12.61 Comparable PE-Based Fair Value $28.25 Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) COMPANY ANALYSIS Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 3 IDACORP, Inc., through its subsidiary, Idaho Power Company, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale, and purchase of electric energy in the United States. Subsidiaries The company's other subsidiaries include: IDACORP Financial Services, Inc. (IFS), an investor in housing and other real estate investments; and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West), an operator of small hydroelectric generation projects. UTILITY OPERATIONS The company's service territory covers approximately 24,000 square miles in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon, with an estimated population of approximately one million. As of December 31, 2008, the company supplied electric energy to approximately 487,000 general business customers. IPC owns and operates 17 hydroelectric generation developments, two natural gas-fired plants and one diesel- powered generator and shares ownership in three coal-fired generating plants. IPC’s coal-fired plants are in Wyoming, Oregon and Nevada, and use low-sulfur coal from Wyoming and Utah. The company's principal commercial and industrial customers are involved in food processing, electronics and general manufacturing, forest products, beet sugar refining and winter recreation. In September 2008, the company entered into an electric service agreement with a new customer, Hoku Materials, Inc. (Hoku), to provide electric service to Hoku’s polysilicon production facility under construction in Pocatello, Idaho. IFS IFS invests primarily in housing developments, which provide a return principally by reducing federal and state income taxes through tax credits and accelerated tax depreciation benefits. IFS’s portfolio also includes historic rehabilitation projects such as, the Empire Building in Boise, Idaho. IDA-WEST Ida-West operates and has a 50 percent interest in nine hydroelectric plants with a total generating capacity of 45 MW. Four of the projects are located in Idaho and five are in northern California. History IDACORP, Inc. was founded in 1915. Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) VALUENGINE RANKINGS Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 4 Just as important as the percentages shown for our ten predictive variables for each stock is the way they are ranked against the 7000 plus stocks in our database. Each of these quantitative measurements is ranked on a scale of 1 to 100. Generally the higher the ranking, the more positive the influence each measurement has on the overall attractiveness of the stock. In other words a high rank is always better. The below data points show how the rank for each data point for IDA relates to the overall industry, sector, and S&P 500 averages. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Valuation Rank IDA -7.22% 55 Industry -4.90% 55 Sector -1.79% 51 S&P 500 n/a n/a The ValuEngine Valuation Rank measures the relationship between a company's stock price and its Fair Value. The higher the Valuation rank, the more undervalued the stock. With a Valuation Rank of 55, IDA is the same as the average of its industry group, which carries a Valuation Rank of 55. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12-Month Return Rank IDA 5.94% 30 Industry 24.93% 40 Sector 37.87% 46 S&P 500 27.03% 45 The ValuEngine 12-Month Return Rank reflects the relative stock performance of a stock over the recent 12 months. On a scale of 1 to 100, a higher 12-Month Return rank indicates a stronger performance. With a 12-Month Return Rank of 30, IDA is in line with the industry's rank score of 40. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Y Avg Ann Rtn Rank IDA -1.86% 59 Industry 0.78% 64 Sector -1.81% 61 S&P 500 -1.27% 60 The ValuEngine 5-Years Average Return Rank reflects a stock's average annual return over the last 5 years, in comparison with the coverage universe. A higher rank indicates a better return performance. With a rank of 59, IDA is in line with the industry, which has a rank of 64. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volatility Rank IDA 19.48% 98 Industry 38.11% 78 Sector 46.23% 71 S&P 500 19.07% 98 The ValuEngine Volatility Rank reflects the volatility associated with the stock. A higher Volatility Rank indicates a lower volatile percentile of stocks. IDA has a Volatility Rank of 98, which is slightly higher than the industry Rank of 78. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EPS Growth Rank IDA -3.17% 18 Industry 18.44% 38 Sector 25.55% 40 S&P 500 n/a n/a The ValuEngine EPS Growth Rank indicates a stock's expected EPS growth rate. A high rank indicates a high growth rate expectation. IDA has an EPS Growth Rank of 18.This is slightly lower than the industry rank of 38. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Cap(bill)Rank IDA 1.41 78 Industry 6.64 79 Sector 8.75 74 S&P 500 n/a n/a The ValuEngine Size rank signifies the company's size in terms of market capitalization. A higher rank denotes a larger market capitalization within ValuEngine's stock universe. With a Size rank of 78, IDA is in line with the industry, which has a rank of 79. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sharpe Ratio Rank IDA -0.1 54 Industry 0.03 63 Sector 0 61 S&P 500 -0.07 57 The ValuEngine Sharpe Ratio Rank measures the risk return tradeoff offered by a stock. Sharpe ratio is the stock's average annual return (over the last five years) divided by its annualized volatility over the same 5 years. With a rank of 54, IDA is in line with the industry, which has a rank of 63. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P/S Ratio Rank IDA 1.39 47 Industry 2.2 54 Sector 1.78 54 S&P 500 n/a n/a The ValuEngine Price/Sales rank signifies the relative position of the company based on its P/S ratio. Stocks with the lowest P/S ratio are assigned a rank of 100 while stocks with the highest P/S ratio are ranked 1. At a Price/Sales rank of 47, IDA is in line with the industry rank of 54. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- M/B Ratio Rank IDA 1.02 63 Industry 1.48 51 Sector 2.23 46 S&P 500 n/a n/a The Market/Book Rank is a measure of a stock's market to book ratio relative to the stock universe. A higher rank corresponds to a lower market book value. IDA has a Market/Book rank of 63, which is slightly higher than the industry rank of 51. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P/E Ratio Rank IDA 12.8 80 Industry 14.68 69 Sector 16.77 64 S&P 500 30.65 51 The ValuEngine P/E Rank signifies the relative standing of a company on its P/E ratio, relative to the universe. Stocks in the top P/E percentile are each assigned a rank of 1(highest P/E stocks) while those in the bottom P/E percentile are assigned a rank of 100 (traditional value stocks). With a P/E rank of 80, IDA is slightly higher than the industry P/E rank of 69. Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) COMPARISON OF SIMILAR STOCKS* & RISk ASSESSMENT Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 5 Valuation Rank IDA -7.22% 55 POR -2.08% 48 CNL 8.77% 34 ALE -15.69% 67 HNP -16.53% 68 12-Month Return Rank IDA 5.94% 30 POR 16.81% 37 CNL 23.82% 43 ALE 4.14% 29 HNP 31.82% 49 5-Y Avg Ann Rtn Rank IDA -1.86% 59 POR -12.18% 39 CNL 5.64% 76 ALE -1.23% 60 HNP -3.53% 55 Volatility Rank IDA 19.48% 98 POR 23.71% 94 CNL 19.56% 98 ALE 23.06% 95 HNP 39.33% 72 EPS Growth Rank IDA -0.03 18 POR 0 21 CNL 0.19 45 ALE 0.12 37 HNP 0.33 55 Market Cap(bill)Rank IDA 1.41 78 POR 1.47 78 CNL 1.56 79 ALE 1.17 76 HNP 1.66 80 Sharpe Ratio Rank IDA -0.1 54 POR -0.51 19 CNL 0.29 87 ALE -0.05 58 HNP -0.09 54 P/S Ratio Rank IDA 1.39 47 POR 0.83 62 CNL 1.73 41 ALE 1.58 43 HNP 0.16 92 M/B Ratio Rank IDA 1.02 63 POR 0.94 67 CNL 1.39 48 ALE 1.29 51 HNP 0.3 94 P/E Ratio Rank IDA 12.8 80 POR 13.07 79 CNL 15.06 73 ALE 15.34 72 HNP 16.26 69 FORECAST COMPARISONS RETURN FORECAST: EXPECTED RETURN ALE CNL HNP IDA POR One-Month -0.51%-0.06%1.27%0.17%-0.51% Three-Month -0.78%-0.37%2.12%0.67%-0.74% Six-Month -0.47%-0.33%2.17%1.19%0.26% One-Year 0.75%1.79%3.70%3.78%2.58% Two-Year 9.34%11.98%10.77%13.01%14.15% Three-Year 18.11%23.21%27.79%26.23%23.60% RISK ASSESSMENT: CHANCE OF GAIN ALE CNL HNP IDA POR One-Month 46.92%49.57%54.45%51.20%47.05% Three-Month 47.29%48.49%54.30%52.75%47.50% Six-Month 48.84%49.05%53.10%53.44%50.61% One-Year 51.29%53.64%53.75%57.70%54.33% Two-Year 61.27%66.76%57.68%68.16%66.34% Three-Year 67.48%75.34%65.83%78.15%71.72% RISK ASSESSMENT: CHANCE OF LOSS ALE CNL HNP IDA POR One-Month 53.08%50.43%45.55%48.80%52.95% Three-Month 52.71%51.51%45.70%47.25%52.50% Six-Month 51.16%50.95%46.90%46.56%49.39% One-Year 48.71%46.36%46.25%42.30%45.67% Two-Year 38.73%33.24%42.32%31.84%33.66% Three-Year 32.52%24.66%34.17%21.84%28.28% * Comparables are companies in the same Sector and Industry and of approximately similar market capitalization value. Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) ANNUAL FINANCIALS - BALANCE SHEET (millions) Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 6 2008-12 2007-12 2006-12 2005-12 2004-12 2003-12 2002-12 2001-12 Cash and Equivalents 8.8 8 9.9 52.4 23.4 75.2 42.7 67 TOTAL CASH & SHORT TERM INVEST 8.8 8 9.9 52.4 23.4 75.2 42.7 67 Accounts Receivable 106.9 98 86.3 103.3 83 81.3 169.2 201 Other Receivables 28.4 11 11.9 22.6 8.8 8.2 15 62 Notes Receivable 0.2 2.1 2.6 3 3.5 3.3 7.6 6 TOTAL RECEIVABLES 135.5 111.1 100.8 128.9 95.3 92.8 191.9 269 INVENTORIES 67 60.5 54.3 44 34.5 27.6 29.8 35 Prepaid Expenses 10.1 9.4 9.3 18.5 30 27.8 34.3 32 Deferred Tax Assets, Curr 37.5 25.7 28 23.9 23.4 ------ Other Current Assets 7.4 52.1 64.3 29.9 14.7 10.4 102.3 250 TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 266.3 266.7 266.5 297.5 221.4 233.8 401 653 Gross Property Plant and Equip.4263.3 4085.4 3825.3 3678.9 3525.6 3327.9 3201.5 3106 Accumulated Depreciation -1505.1 -1468.8 -1406.2 -1364.6 -1316.1 -1239.6 -1295 -1220 NET PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIP.2758.2 2616.6 2419.1 2314.3 2209.5 2088.3 1906.5 1886 Long-term Investments 198.6 201.1 202.8 191.6 223.1 204.5 206.3 159 Goodwill ------3.4 -------- Other Intangibles 26.3 29.5 30.5 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.6 31 Loans Receivable, LT 0.1 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.8 ---- Deferred Charges, LT 696.3 449.7 423.5 415.2 433.3 427.8 482.2 544 Other Long Term Assets 77.1 87.5 100.2 107.7 111.6 111 225 369 TOTAL ASSETS 4022.8 3653.3 3445.1 3364.1 3234.2 3101.7 3252.6 3642 Accounts Payable 96.8 85.1 86.4 83.7 79.2 60.9 130.9 248 Accrued Expenses 16.7 18.9 60.1 87.3 60.7 49.3 63.3 15 Short-term Borrowings 151.2 186.4 129 60.1 36.3 93.7 176.2 363 Current Income Taxes Payable --8.5 ------------ Deferred Tax Liability, Current ----------5.6 21.5 24 Other Current Liabilities 44.4 64.9 39.7 46.2 30.7 29.9 95 221 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 395.7 375.3 410.3 293.6 285.5 307.3 576.6 907 Long Term Debt 1183.4 1156.9 928.6 1023.6 979.5 998.2 952.1 947 Deferred Tax Liability Non-Current 515.7 466.2 498.5 521.9 555.8 554.7 595.5 590 Other Non-Current Liabilities 625.6 447.6 483.5 499.9 405.1 377.2 253.6 327 TOTAL LIABILITIES 2720.4 2446 2320.9 2338.9 2225.9 2237.4 2377.8 2771 Common Stock 729.6 675.8 638.8 598.7 589.4 473.9 470.4 454 Retained Earnings 581.6 537.7 493.4 437.3 424.3 397.2 415.3 424 Treasury Stock -0 -0 -2.2 -7.3 -4.6 -4.2 -3.7 -3 Comprehensive Income and Other -8.7 -6.2 -5.7 -3.4 -0.9 -2.6 -7.1 -4 TOTAL COMMON EQUITY 1302.4 1207.3 1124.2 1025.2 1008.3 864.3 874.8 871 TOTAL EQUITY 1302.4 1207.3 1124.2 1025.2 1008.3 864.3 874.8 871 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 4022.8 3653.3 3445.1 3364.1 3234.2 3101.7 3252.6 3642 Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) ANNUAL FINANCIALS - INCOME STATEMENT (millions) Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 7 2008-12 2007-12 2006-12 2005-12 2004-12 2003-12 2002-12 2001-12 Revenues 956.1 875.4 920.5 837.7 822.8 802.6 915.5 5635 Other Revenues 4.3 4 5.8 21.8 21.7 20.4 13.4 13 TOTAL REVENUES 960.4 879.4 926.3 859.5 844.5 823 928.8 5648 Cost Of Goods Sold 649.3 613.5 656.8 620 650.4 602.3 721.1 5252 GROSS PROFIT 311.1 265.9 269.5 239.5 194.1 220.7 207.7 396 Selling General and Admin Exp.18.9 13.5 ------24.3 28 66 Depr. and Amortization 102.1 103.1 99.8 101.5 100.9 97.7 93.6 87 OPERATING INCOME 190.2 149.3 169.7 138 93.3 98.7 86.1 243 Interest Expense -73.1 -63.3 -61 -60.2 -63.1 -64.9 -68.6 -76 Interest and Invest. Income --6.9 8.5 ---------- NET INTEREST EXP.-73.1 -56.5 -52.5 -60.2 -63.1 -64.9 -68.6 -76 Income/(Loss) from Affiliates -4 -4.8 -2.9 -0.7 1 ------ Other Non-Oper. Inc. (Exp.)4.5 8 1.1 9.7 15.1 10.7 7.1 21 EBT EXCL. UNUSUAL ITEMS 117.6 96 115.5 86.9 48.2 40.1 20.6 188 Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Invest.--------2 -4.3 -4 -- Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets --------------2 Asset Writedown -------------10.1 -- Legal Settlements -----------12.1 ---- Other Unusual Items -------10.3 ---2.6 ---- EBT INCL. UNUSUAL ITEMS 117.6 96 115.5 76.6 48.2 25.5 10.5 190 Income Tax Expense 19.2 13.7 15.4 12.9 -24.8 -21.1 -51.1 65 EARNINGS FROM CONTINUING 98.4 82.3 100.1 63.7 73 46.6 61.7 125 Earnings Of Discontinued Oper.--0.1 7.3 ---------- NET INCOME 98.4 82.3 107.4 63.7 73 46.6 61.7 125 NI TO COMMON INCL EXTRA ITEMS 98.4 82.3 107.4 63.7 73 46.6 61.7 125 Basic EPS 2.2 1.9 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.6 3.3 Basic EPS Excl. Extra Items 2.2 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.6 3.3 Weighted Avg. Basic Shares Out.45.1 44.2 42.7 42.3 38.4 38.2 37.7 37.4 Diluted EPS 2.2 1.9 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.6 3.3 Diluted EPS Excl Extra Items 2.2 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.6 3.3 Weighted Avg. Diluted Shares Out.45.3 44.3 42.9 42.4 38.4 38.2 37.7 37.4 Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) ANNUAL FINANCIALS - CASH FLOW STATEMENT (millions) Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 8 2008-12 2007-12 2006-12 2005-12 2004-12 2003-12 2002-12 2001-12 Net Income 98.4 82.3 107.4 63.7 73 46.6 61.7 125 Depreciation and Amortization 122.4 120.4 122.6 124.1 124.2 129.1 93.6 111 Amortization Of Goodwill ------------29.2 -- DEPRECIATION AND AMORT., TOTAL 122.4 120.4 122.6 124.1 124.2 129.1 122.8 111 (Gain) Loss From Sale Of Asset -3.4 -4.8 -25.7 -2.1 -4.5 -----2 (Gain) Loss On Sale Of Invest.----------1.9 1 -- Asset Writedown and Restruct. Costs ----2 10.3 9.1 3.5 8.1 -- (Income) Loss On Equity Investments -7.4 -6.3 -9.6 -16.8 -------- Tax Benefit from Stock Options -0.1 -0.1 -1.4 ---------- Prov. and Write-off of Bad debts ----0.1 -10.7 --2.5 0.8 20 Other Operating Activities -51.5 -124.1 -20.6 2.9 9.7 122.9 230.2 -278 Change In Accounts Receivable -1.7 -10.3 24.3 -6.4 -1.4 96.8 28.8 41 Change In Inventories ----------2.2 3.6 -- Change In Accounts Payable 16.2 2.2 6.7 1.8 15.8 -70.3 -145.9 4 Change In Income Taxes -26.5 -9.5 -24.1 26.4 0.7 -11 99 -67 Change In Deferred Taxes 4.7 11 -17.3 -31.8 -33.9 -62 -110.7 150 Change In Other Working Capital -14.5 19.6 5.2 0.1 2 49 48.2 -112 CASH FROM OPERATIONS 136.5 80.6 169.8 161.5 194.7 311.2 347.6 -8 Capital Expenditure -243.5 -287.8 -225 -193.3 -199.8 -149.1 -134.2 -180 Sale of Prop., Plant, and Equip.5.8 --0.1 1 5.6 ----12 Divestitures --7.3 21.5 ---------- Sale (Purchase) of Intangible assets 3 19.8 11.3 70.8 -------- Invest. in Marketable and Eqty Securties -9.5 -6.2 -16.4 30.4 -33.9 ---43.9 -- Other Investing Activities 41.5 -0.3 -44.6 2.2 -1.5 -4.4 -8.3 -3 CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING -202.8 -267.1 -253 -88.9 -229.6 -153.6 -186.5 -171 Short-Term Debt Issued 170 57.4 68.9 23.8 ------242 Long-Term Debt Issued 120 240 116.3 65 106.4 255.3 200 120 TOTAL DEBT ISSUED 290 297.4 185.2 88.8 106.4 255.3 200 362 Short-Term Debt Repaid -39.1 -------58.2 -82.6 -186.3 -- Long-Term Debt Repaid -177.4 -95 -132.6 -83.1 -79.9 -230 -89.4 -144 TOTAL DEBT REPAID -216.5 -95 -132.6 -83.1 -138.1 -312.6 -275.7 -144 TOTAL DIVIDENDS PAID -54.2 -53 -51.3 -50.7 -45.8 -64.7 -70.2 -70 Other Financing Activities -2.6 -1.7 -1.7 -5 -53.5 -6.6 -53.9 -5 CASH FROM FINANCING 67.2 184.6 40.8 -43.6 -16.8 -125.2 -185 139 NET CHANGE IN CASH 0.9 -1.9 -42.5 29 -51.8 32.4 -24 -40 Cash Interest Paid 67 62 60.4 57.5 55.1 58.9 62.7 70 Cash Taxes Paid 20.4 3 54.5 18.9 7.7 52.9 -39.7 -18 Net Debt Issued 73.5 202.4 52.6 5.8 -31.7 -57.3 -75.7 218 Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) QUARTERLY FINANCIALS - BALANCE SHEET (millions) Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 9 2009-06 2009-03 2008-12 2008-09 2008-06 2008-03 2007-12 2007-09 Cash and Equivalents 16 89.1 8.8 57.7 8.9 7.4 8 16.7 TOTAL CASH & SHORT TERM INVEST 16 89.1 8.8 57.7 8.9 7.4 8 16.7 Accounts Receivable 117.8 105.2 106.9 115.9 114 96.5 98 96.3 Other Receivables 14.3 24.8 28.4 6.6 7.2 7.5 11 21.3 Notes Receivable ----0.2 0.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 TOTAL RECEIVABLES 132.1 130 135.5 122.7 123.4 106.2 111.1 120 INVENTORIES 74.6 66.7 67 75.7 74 64.4 60.5 62.6 Prepaid Expenses 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.3 8.8 7.7 9.4 10.4 Deferred Tax Assets, Curr 14.7 14.8 37.5 14.4 9.9 24.9 25.7 31.5 Other Current Assets 8.6 9 7.4 33.8 34 53.3 52.1 50.4 TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 255.5 319.5 266.3 314.7 259 263.9 266.7 291.6 Gross Property Plant and Equip.4335 4289.7 4263.3 4217.1 4167.9 4110.9 4085.4 4021.3 Accumulated Depreciation -1540.5 -1520.9 -1505.1 -1499.9 -1480.1 -1461.9 -1468.8 -1466.7 NET PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIP.2794.5 2768.8 2758.2 2717.1 2687.8 2649 2616.6 2554.6 Long-term Investments 193.5 185.5 198.6 201.8 207.3 205.5 201.1 201.5 Other Intangibles 24.7 25 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 29.5 29.8 Loans Receivable, LT ----0.1 0.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.4 Deferred Charges, LT 693.4 692.3 696.3 502.6 477.9 473.1 449.7 454.1 Other Long Term Assets 81 78.6 77.1 88.4 87.2 88.5 87.5 78.7 TOTAL ASSETS 4042.7 4069.7 4022.8 3851.3 3748.6 3709.5 3653.3 3612.6 Accounts Payable 66 53 96.8 66.2 68.7 58.5 85.1 65.8 Accrued Expenses 17.9 24.1 16.7 29.6 18.7 28 18.9 28.2 Short-term Borrowings 79.1 150.7 151.2 203.9 279.4 243.5 186.4 144.8 Current Income Taxes Payable ------14.7 3.5 3 8.5 -- Other Current Liabilities 44.1 51.5 44.4 64.2 73.1 69.6 64.9 53.4 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 290.6 360.8 395.7 386.5 452 413.9 375.3 384.5 Long Term Debt 1283.6 1279.5 1183.4 1273 1153.4 1155.3 1156.9 1061.3 Minority Interest 4.1 4 ------------ Deferred Tax Liability Non-Current 513 511.3 515.7 473.8 468.9 479.6 466.2 486 Other Non-Current Liabilities 625 605.4 625.6 447.3 449.6 443.2 447.6 472.7 TOTAL LIABILITIES 2716.3 2761 2720.4 2580.6 2523.9 2492 2446 2404.5 Common Stock 734.9 731.8 729.6 691.2 682.1 678.7 675.8 672.9 Retained Earnings 599.7 586.4 581.6 588 549.8 545.9 537.7 540.8 Treasury Stock -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 Comprehensive Income and Other -8.2 -9.5 -8.7 -8.5 -7.3 -7.2 -6.2 -5.6 TOTAL COMMON EQUITY 1326.4 1308.7 1302.4 1270.7 1224.7 1217.5 1207.3 1208.1 TOTAL EQUITY 1326.4 1308.7 1302.4 1270.7 1224.7 1217.5 1207.3 1208.1 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 4042.7 4069.7 4022.8 3851.3 3748.6 3709.5 3653.3 3612.6 Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) QUARTERLY FINANCIALS - INCOME STATEMENT (millions) Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 10 2009-06 2009-03 2008-12 2008-09 2008-06 2008-03 2007-12 2007-09 Revenues 242.5 228 216.2 298.1 228.9 212.8 196.4 260.5 Other Revenues 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.6 1 0.9 TOTAL REVENUES 243.6 228.6 217 299.7 230.2 213.4 197.4 261.5 Cost Of Goods Sold 157.8 162.5 163.9 186.6 159.5 139.6 142.9 185.1 GROSS PROFIT 85.8 66.1 53.2 113.1 70.7 73.9 54.5 76.3 Selling General and Admin Exp.8.7 4.1 5.6 6 3.9 3.4 4.5 4.3 Depr. and Amortization 26.8 26 24 25.7 26.6 25.8 26.2 26 OPERATING INCOME 50.3 36 23.5 81.4 40.2 44.8 23.8 46.1 Interest Expense -18.3 -17.5 -20 -18.5 -17.1 -17.5 -16.7 -16.6 Interest and Invest. Income 0.1 ----------0.5 -- NET INTEREST EXP.-18.2 -17.5 -20 -18.5 -17.1 -17.5 -16.2 -16.6 Income/(Loss) from Affiliates -2.6 0.4 0.7 2.6 -3.3 -4 -1.6 -0.4 Other Non-Oper. Inc. (Exp.)3.2 6.5 -5.9 2 4.6 4.1 5.1 4.4 EBT EXCL. UNUSUAL ITEMS 32.7 25.5 -1.7 67.5 24.5 27.3 11.1 33.5 EBT INCL. UNUSUAL ITEMS 32.7 25.5 -1.7 67.5 24.5 27.3 11.1 33.5 Income Tax Expense 5.2 6.8 -9.1 15.8 6.9 5.6 0.8 4.6 Minority Int. in Earnings -0.1 0.2 ------------ EARNINGS FROM CONTINUING 27.5 18.9 7.4 51.7 17.5 21.7 10.3 28.9 NET INCOME 27.5 18.9 7.4 51.7 17.5 21.7 10.3 28.9 NI TO COMMON INCL EXTRA ITEMS 27.5 18.9 7.4 51.7 17.5 21.7 10.3 28.9 Basic EPS 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 Basic EPS Excl. Extra Items 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 Weighted Avg. Basic Shares Out.47 46.8 45.8 45 44.9 44.8 44.8 44.4 Diluted EPS 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 Diluted EPS Excl Extra Items 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 Weighted Avg. Diluted Shares Out.47 46.9 46 45.2 45.1 45 44.9 44.5 Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) QUARTERLY FINANCIALS - CASH FLOW STATEMENT (millions) Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 11 2009-06 2009-03 2008-12 2008-09 2008-06 2008-03 2007-12 2007-09 Net Income 27.6 18.7 7.4 51.7 17.5 21.7 10.3 28.9 Depreciation and Amortization 24.3 31.2 29.2 29.9 32.5 30.8 29.1 30.9 DEPRECIATION AND AMORT., TOTAL 24.3 31.2 29.2 29.9 32.5 30.8 29.1 30.9 (Gain) Loss From Sale Of Asset -0 -0.4 -0.1 0 -3.4 ---0.3 -1.8 (Income) Loss On Equity Investments 9.9 0 -3.7 -4.9 0.2 0.9 -1.6 -1.7 Tax Benefit from Stock Options 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -------0.1 -- Other Operating Activities 22.9 17.3 -6.2 -22.5 -22.9 0.1 -19 -44.4 Change In Accounts Receivable -0.8 -8.1 10.1 -13.8 0.2 1.8 -0.6 -6.7 Change In Accounts Payable 13.4 -41.7 33 -3.3 16.4 -29.9 22.2 -16.4 Change In Income Taxes 9.6 8.6 -32.7 11.5 0.6 -5.8 5.6 -2.5 Change In Deferred Taxes -7.1 14.7 -11.4 -0.7 4.2 12.6 -18.2 10.5 Change In Other Working Capital -33.5 4.2 -4.5 13.9 -12.6 -11.3 6 9 CASH FROM OPERATIONS 66.3 44.4 21.1 61.9 32.6 20.9 33.4 5.7 Capital Expenditure -50.7 -49.6 -67.1 -51.1 -72.5 -52.9 -84.7 -80.9 Sale of Prop., Plant, and Equip.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 5.7 ------ Sale (Purchase) of Intangible assets --2.3 --2.1 0.8 ----17.2 Invest. in Marketable and Eqty Securties -1.2 4 0.3 5.6 -3.7 -11.7 -3.5 -0.8 Other Investing Activities -5.7 2.4 29.4 -6.4 19 -0.5 -0.1 -1.6 CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING -55.6 -40.6 -37.3 -49.7 -50.7 -65.1 -88.3 -66.1 Short-Term Debt Issued ----117.3 --32 57.1 41.6 57.9 Long-Term Debt Issued --100 --118.7 ----14.9 -- TOTAL DEBT ISSUED --100 117.3 118.7 32 57.1 56.6 57.9 Short-Term Debt Repaid -71.6 -0.6 ---75.5 -------- Long-Term Debt Repaid ---8.7 -173.7 ---0.6 -1.8 ---2.3 TOTAL DEBT REPAID -71.6 -9.3 -173.7 -75.5 -0.6 -1.8 ---2.3 TOTAL DIVIDENDS PAID -13.9 -14.4 -13.7 -13.5 -13.5 -13.5 -13.4 -13.3 Other Financing Activities -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 -0.2 CASH FROM FINANCING -83.8 76.6 -32.7 36.6 19.7 43.6 46.2 64.5 NET CHANGE IN CASH -73.1 80.3 -48.9 48.8 1.5 -0.6 -8.7 4.2 Net Debt Issued -71.6 90.7 -56.4 43.2 31.4 55.3 56.6 55.6 Thank you for your interest in ValuEngine! ValuEngine Detailed Valuation Report: Advanced academic research that brings you superior investment strategies in an actionable format. The most comprehensive and useful report available. ValuEngine's three models: Valuation Model, Forecast Model and Ratings Model are incorporated to give you a well-rounded analysis from three different perspectives. Consensus EPS trend and Earnings Surprise statistics provide additional insights. Also, detailed Company Profile, ValuEngine Fair Valuation; 1-3-6 month and 1-2-3 yr forecasts, ValuEngine 1-5 Engine Rating, Multi-stock comparison, Financials, Earnings Estimates, Risk Assessment, Data Summary and much more. More report information: http://www.valuengine.com/rep/mainrep To find out more about ValuEngine's many independent and objective investment products and services, please visit our website at www.ValuEngine.com, call us at 1-800-381-5576, or send us an email at support@ValuEngine.com. 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ValuEngine has the research, IT, and mathematical brainpower on staff to provide Funds and Institutions with complete solutions to their research, development, and strategy-implementation needs. Please call (800) 381-5576 to speak with a sales representative or email support@valuEngine.com. Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) VALUENGINE SERVICE DESCRIPTIONS Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 12 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ValuEngine's research combines the most advanced academic concepts with real world Wall Street practice. The result is state-of-the-art fair market valuation and price forecasting technologies. ValuEngine's stock valuation employs a sophisticated, three-factor approach. Fundamental variables, such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield, are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. Together with eleven additional variables, ValuEngine paints a detailed picture of a company's fair value, represented by the model price. ValuEngine's stock forecasts examine, among other things, short- term price reversals, intermediate-term momentum continuation, and long-term price reversals over six time horizons for every industry to ensure forecasts are established relative to a stock's proper peer groups. Advanced statistical/econometric techniques are used to run thousands of simulations estimating the probability of a double in stock price, as well as the probability of meeting and exceeding any given portfolio or stock investment target. The stock's engine rating is an assessment of its overall attractiveness. It combines valuation, risk-return trade-off, momentum, market capitalization and forecasted future returns. Only two percent of the stock universe receives the highest 5-engine rating. The lowest rating is a single engine. 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Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: a). all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers; and b). no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report. DISCLAIMERS This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of ValuEngine at the time the report was released. The opinions of ValuEngine are subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation of notification. ValuEngine does not provide investment banking or consulting services to the companies mentioned in this report. ValuEngine does not receive any compensation from companies mentioned in this report. The author, officers, or affiliates of ValuEngine do not hold positions in the securities of the companies mentioned in this report. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. This information is intended for the sole use of clients of ValuEngine, Inc. Any other use, distribution, or reproduction is strictly prohibited. Quotes provided by Data Transmission Network, Inc.(www.dtn.com) Vglu ngineETM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT IDACORP INC.(IDA) VALUENGINE'S METHODOLOGY Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc 13 Engine Rating and Average Annual Return (Jan 1990 - Oct 2009) 1 2 3 4 5 Engine Rating 0 5 10 15 20 25 Av g R e t u r n ( % )