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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC McAdams-June-2-2011.pdf Additional required disclosures under NASD Rule 2711 are provided on the last page of this document. McAdams Wright Ragen > 925 Fourth Avenue, Suite 3900 Seattle, WA 98104 888.567.6297 > www.mwrinc.com Page 1 of 2 What’s New: • Breaking News and Brief Comments Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB) IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB): $17.23, BUY, $22 Target Price Sara E. Hasan, CFA, shasan@mwrinc.com Another FDIC-Assisted Acquisition • On Friday, COLB announced that it has acquired all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of First Heritage Bank, Snohomish, Washington, through a purchase and assumption agreement with the FDIC, which had been appointed receiver. This is COLB’s second FDIC-assisted transaction in as many weeks. • Similar in size to the previous week’s acquisition of Summit Bank, First Heritage had $173.5 million in assets and $163.3 million in deposits at quarter end. COLB will pay the FDIC a premium of 0.75% to assume non-brokered deposits and a negative bid of $10.5 million on net assets acquired. The agreement also includes a loss-share on $142.2 million of First Heritage’s assets. While pricing appears attractive relative to other FDIC assisted deals in the Northwest, these markets arguably remain some of the most challenged in Washington State. • We continue to like shares of COLB which has one of the best franchises in the Pacific Northwest, boasting a robust commercial loan portfolio and more than 90% core deposits. Legacy credit quality trends continue to improve while the bank’s previous FDIC-assisted acquisitions are performing ahead of expectations. • COLB remains flush with capital after repaying TARP last year. Though lackluster economic conditions present a near-term challenge, we think this robust capital base provides the company with ample flexibility to pursue both organic and non-organic growth opportunities over the next several years. • We believe downside risk to the stock is relatively limited at the current valuation, while potential scenarios that could drive upside are plentiful. We reiterate our BUY rating and our 24-month target price of $22 per share which is based on a multiple of 1.4x projected FY12 book value. • Risks to our outlook include: the potential for a prolonged industry-wide downdraft should credit-quality continue to deteriorate nationally or in the Northwest, a protracted period of low or narrow interest rates, or further rapid declines in short-term interest rates, increased competition or irrational competitive behavior, and integration risk with regard to acquisitions. IDACORP, Inc. (IDA): $38.75, $36 Target Price, HOLD Jennifer Sireklove, CFA jsireklove@mwrinc.com Idaho Power Files General Rate Case in Idaho • Idaho Power announced it filed an anticipated general rate case in Idaho, which represents the majority of rate base and earnings, with a requested effective date of January 1, 2012. The last general rate case was effective March 19, 2009. • We expect that the allowed ROE will likely remain constant at 10.5%, as requested, but that the allowed rate base or equity portion may not be granted fully as requested. The company is requesting a boost in rate base to $2.4 billion from $2.1 billion and an increase in the percent equity to 51.2% from 49.3%. • We view this as a continuation of business as normal and maintain our $36 price target based on 12x earnings power of $3 per share which produces a HOLD rating based on the current stock price. • Risks: rate case uncertainty, rising interest rates, natural gas price volatility and poor hydrogeneration conditions. 6.2.2011 BRIEF NOTES & SUMMARIES Capital Markets Research (206) 664-8850 Additional required disclosures under NASD Rule 2711 are provided on the last page of this document. McAdams Wright Ragen > 925 Fourth Avenue, Suite 3900 Seattle, WA 98104 888.567.6297 > www.mwrinc.com Page 2 of 2 Required Disclosures: As of March 31, 2011 Sara E. Hasan, CFA, shasan@mwrinc.com, (206) 493-1660 • I, Sara E. Hasan, hereby certify (1) that the views in this research note accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this note. From To Date Price Buy Hold 12/16/2010 $20.27 Target Price $20 7/22/2010 $17.20 Hold Buy 7/22/2010 $17.20 Buy Hold 2/1/2010 $18.62 Price Target $18.50 8/7/2009 $14.76 Price Target $19 7/27/2009 $11.87 Price Target $21 11/7/2008 $14.94 Hold Buy 11/7/2008 $14.94 Ratings Change Focus List Change Target Price Change Jennifer Sireklove, CFA, jsireklove@mwrinc.com, (206)664-8875 • I, Jennifer Sireklove, hereby certify (1) that the views in this research note accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this note. From To Date Price Price Target $36 5/24/2010 $32.40 Coverage Initiation Hold 5/24/2010 $32.40 Ratings Change Focus List Change Target Price Change MWR makes a market in Columbia Banking System (COLB). The firm intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next three months. Price targets are subject to change as new information becomes available, and reflect our current judgment regarding this security. Note that there are risks that may impede the achievement of a predicted price target. Price targets are based on fundamental factors such as historical and projected earnings, cash flow, discounted cash flow, relative book value, peer group evaluation, relative sector valuations, and expectations on general market and economic conditions. McAdams Wright Ragen employs a Ratings System (in effect since 6/12/2002), defined as follows. Buy/Addition to Recommended List: We expect the Stock to Outperform the Market. Hold/Addition to Recommended List: We expect the Stock to be a Market Performer. Sell/Removal from Recommended List: We expect the Stock to Underperform the Market. Ratings System in effect between 2/7/2002 and 6/12/2002: Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell. Ratings System in effect prior to 2/7/2002: Buy, Moderate Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell. Percentage of Rated Stocks Currently Assigned this Rating Percentage of Rated Stocks with this Rating with where MWR has provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months. Buy 48% 6% Hold 34% 5% Sell 17% 0% For additional price Chart and Ratings History disclosures, please go to http://www.mwrinc.com/ClientAccess/quotesresearch.html, or to request information, please contact MWR’s Research Department, (206) 664-8854, research@mwrinc.com Other disclosures: This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. Our firm, or its officers, research personnel, other employees or customers may have long or short positions in the securities or options of the recommended issuers, may buy and sell the securities or options, may serve as an officer or director of any company mentioned, prior to or at the time of publication of the report or thereafter.