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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDANote091609.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY, MELVILLE, NY, PRINCETON, NJ LOS ANGELES, CA MIAMI, FL LINCOLNSHIRE, IL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) Company Update – Raising P-T and Maintaining NEUTRAL Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our NEUTRAL rating on IDA shares. Our revised price target of $30 per share (previously $28 per share) is based on a 2010 P/E of 11.2x EPS of $2.69. The primary driver of our increased price target is industry valuation multiple expansion. • On September 1, 2009, the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) issued a certificate of public convenience and necessity (CPCN) for IDA to build the Langley Gulch generating facility (despite considerable opposition from various parties). Langley Gulch is a 330 MW gas-fired CCGT power plant that is estimated to cost approximately $427m (including transmission intertie expense of $25.4m) with a December 2012 online date. IPUC also granted IDA certain ratemaking principles. • We view the Langley Gulch project as supporting meaningful rate base growth and corresponding long-term source of regulated earnings power. We expect the project to be financed with a mix of external debt and equity. Project-related 2009 capital expenditures are estimated at $50m- $55m. • Recall on March 6, 2009, IDA filed for the Langley Gulch CPCN requesting $427.4m of which the IPUC granted preapproval for recovery of $396.6m for known costs after competitive procurement. IDA must file progress and budget updates quarterly with the IPUC. IDA requested CWIP be included however the Commission denied annual recovery in rates, but considered allowing for quicker recovery of construction costs. • Additional regulatory updates: IDA recently filed for Oregon rate relief (+$7.3m), and on August 28, 2009, filed a notice with the IPUC indicating that the company intends to file a general rate case on or after October 28, 2009 with new rates effective in 2010. • Upcoming regulatory events to monitor: ALJ ruling regarding IPC supplemental opening testimony (September 18, 2009), IPC supplemental opening testimony due in Oregon gas rate case (October 9, 2009), Petitions to intervene due in Oregon gas rate case (October 26, 2009), and expected Idaho general rate case filing (October 28, 2009). COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price $28.79 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE09) $30.00 Prior Target $28.00 52 - Week Range $20.91-$33.89 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $1,360 Enterprise Value (mill) $2,501 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 47 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 366 Book Value per Share (1Q09A) $28.03 Dividend (FY09E) / Yield $1.20 4.2% FY2007A FY2008A FY2009E Revenue (mill) $879 $992 $1,059 1Q EPS $0.56 $0.48 $0.40 2Q EPS $0.42 $0.35 $0.58 3Q EPS $0.62 $1.14 4Q EPS $0.23 $0.26 EPS $1.86 $2.22 $2.56 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $2.37 P/E 15.5x 13.0x 11.2x EV/EBITDA 9.8x 8.2x 7.7x P/FCF -59.3x -59.3x -54.3x ESTIMATES Volume in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 50-day average 200-day average Chart data: Bloomberg Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com James Berry 212-409-2685 jberry@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update September 16, 2009 NEUTRAL Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 2 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 3 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 15% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 15% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 15% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (as of 09/01/09) Buy 65% (8% are banking clients) Neutral 31% (0% are banking clients) Sell 4% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. 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This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2009 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.