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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDANote050710.pdfPower and Utilities Sector Company Update May 7, 2010 NEUTRAL IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) 1Q10 Results and 2010 Outlook Reaffirmed - Maintaining NEUTRAL Rating Highlights • We are maintaining our NEUTRAL rating on IDA shares. Our price target of $35 per share is based on a 2010/2011/2012 P/E of 12.9x/11.7x/11.4x our EPS estimates of $2.72/$3.00/$3.08. • On May 6, 2010, IDA reported 1Q10 financial results. 1Q10 net income totaled $16.1m or $0.34 per share compared to a net income of $18.9m or $0.40 per share in 1Q09 and our estimate of $0.40 per share. Results were primarily attributable to rate and other regulatory recovery (+$8.9m), lower income taxes (+$3.0m) and increased ITC amortization (+$4.5m), offset by lower sales volumes due to a weak economy (-$6.7m), decreased life insurance gains (-$3.3m), lower earnings at Bridger Coal Company (-$3.0m), higher depreciation expense related to AMI (-$2.6m) and payroll increases (-$1.8m). IDA also reaffirmed its 2010 earnings guidance range of $2.65-$2.80 per share. Key drivers of 2010 guidance: O&M expense of approximately $295m-$305m, Capital expenditures of $355m-$365m, hydroelectric generation of 6.5-8.5m MWh, Non-regulated earnings of $0-$3m, the use of investment tax credits to achieve 9.5% ROE floor. • Our 2010 EPS estimate of $2.72 assumes Idaho Power can earn at least 9.5% ROE and is in-line with guidance. Our 2011 EPS estimate of $3.00 assumes Idaho Power can earn at least 9.5% ROE based on $1.5b of year-end equity balance (supported by $84m of deferred energy recovery in 2010, modest 2010/2011 DRIP-related and sales agency agreement equity issuances, retained earnings partially offset by dividends). Our preliminary 2012 EPS estimate of $3.08 assumes IDA will file a rate case in mid-2011 (with forward test year) for new rates effective January 2012 to recover incremental costs over the 2010-2012 period including inclusion of Langley Gulch in rates. • Brownlee and Hells Canyon, IDA’s largest hydroelectric generation facility, are forecasted to have water supplies 51% and 50% of their 30-year averages (as of the April 7, 2010 NOAA official regression forecast for April-September 2010), respectively. IDA’s hydroelectric facilities are primarily located on the Snake River along the Idaho/Oregon border. In terms of IDA, new rate structure (9.5% ROE floor) and more accurate forward looking hydro supply methodology (filed in April) helps mitigate earnings/cash volatility. IDA generated 1.9m MWh of hydro capacity in 1Q10 compared with 1.6m MWh in 1Q09 and expects 6.5- 8.5m MWh for all of 2010 compared with 8.1m MWh in 2009. • According to management, the Board continues review IDA dividend policy and while it acknowledges the current below average yield of 3.5%, considering its aggressive capital budget a material dividend increase is not in the near future. In terms of external capital needs to support its capital budget, IDA believes that minimal financing is needed for the balance of 2010, a debt refunding in necessary by early 2011 and the company has 2.1m remaining on its DRIP program. We believe IDA can remain flexible in the near-term. • Rate base growth and corresponding earnings growth is supported in the near-term by the pre-approved Langley Gulch power pant (COD 2012). Longer-term growth is supported by the pending Boardman to Hemingway Line (COD 2015) which is needed for reliability and the Gateway West Line (230-500 kV, $500-$600m total cost, COD TBD). COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price $33.86 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE10)$35.00 52 - Week Range $22.22-$36.93 Mkt. Capitalization (mill)$1,613 Enterprise Value (mill)$2,483 FD Shares Outstanding (mill)48 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000)218 Book Value per Share (4Q09A)$29.17 Dividend (FY10E) / Yield $1.20 3.5% FY2008A FY2009A FY2010E Revenue (mill)$992 $1,037 $1,086 1Q EPS $0.48 $0.40 $0.34A 2Q EPS $0.35 $0.58 3Q EPS $1.14 $1.16 4Q EPS $0.16 $0.49 EPS $2.17 $2.64 $2.72 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $2.72 P/E 15.6x 12.8x 12.4x EV/EBITDA 8.0x 9.0x 8.3x P/FCF -25.2x -25.2x -95.6x ESTIMATES Volume in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 50-day average 200-day average Chart data: Bloomberg Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com James Berry 212-409-2685 jberry@ladenburg.com Disclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY PRINCETON, NJ LOS ANGELES, CA MIAMI, FL LINCOLNSHIRE, IL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 2 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 3 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 15% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 15% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 15% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (as of 04/30/10) Buy 68% (29% are banking clients) Neutral 31% (4% are banking clients) Sell 1% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. 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