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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDANote0500809.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY, MELVILLE, NY, PRINCETON, NJ LOS ANGELES, CA MIAMI, FL LINCOLNSHIRE, IL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) 1Q09 Financial Results – Reiterating BUY Rating Highlights • We are reiterating our BUY on IDA shares. Our price target of $28 per share is based on a 2009/2010 P/E of 10.9x/10.4x EPS of $2.56/$2.69. • On May 7, 2009, IDA reported 1Q09 net income of $18.9m or $0.40 per share compared to a net income of $21.7m or $0.48 per share in 1Q08. Idaho Power Company reported 1Q09 net income of $19.3m compared to $21.3m in 1Q08. IDACORP Financial Services (IFS) contributed $141k in 1Q09 compared to $801k in 1Q08. Results include: reallocation of $6.4m of PCA related costs, FERC fees refund of $1.7m, and life insurance benefits of $1.6m. The company reaffirmed its 2009 operating/financial assumptions. • IDA’s net long capacity position is declining and the company is developing plans for additional 330 MW of baseload capacity by 2012 ($427m). New transmission lines ($1.4-$1.8b) and upgrades to existing infrastructure are also needed in the future to eliminate bottlenecks, congestion on the system and support renewables. • We view these infrastructure projects as meaningful rate base investment opportunities and a source of long-term incremental regulated earnings power. We note that the transmission projects have been delayed 1-2 years. The company’s self-build baseload proposal is awaiting PUC approval (expected in 3Q09). • The company believes it can finance its 2009 capital expenditures with internally generated funds and its DRIP program and does not need to access the capital markets in the near-term. Longer-term infrastructure- related projects would likely be financed by a combination of internally generated cash flow and external debt/equity financing. • Importantly, recently passed Senate Bill 1123 (SB1123) is designed to allow a utility to file an application with the IPUC for an order specifying in advance the ratemaking treatments (ROE, depreciation life, etc) that would apply when the costs of the proposed project are included in a utility’s revenue requirement. IDA has requested SB 1123 treatment for its proposed Langley Gulch baseload generation plant. COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price $23.70 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE09) $28.00 52 - Week Range $20.91-$33.89 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $1,080 Enterprise Value (mill) $2,501 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 46 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 549 Book Value per Share (1Q09A) $28.03 Dividend (FY09E) / Yield $1.20 5.1% FY2007A FY2008A FY2009E Revenue (mill) $879 $992 $1,059 1Q EPS $0.56 $0.48 $0.40 2Q EPS $0.42 $0.35 3Q EPS $0.62 $1.14 4Q EPS $0.23 $0.26 EPS $1.86 $2.22 $2.56 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $2.40 P/E 12.7x 10.7x 9.3x EV/EBITDA 9.8x 8.2x 7.7x P/FCF -48.8x -48.8x -44.7x ESTIMATES Volume in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 50-day average 200-day average Chart data: Bloomberg Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com James Berry 212-409-2685 jberry@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update May 8, 2009 BUY IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 2 - Investment Conclusion Reiterating BUY Rating We are reiterating our BUY rating on IDA shares. Our price target of $28 per share is based on a 2009/2010 P/E of 10.9x/10.4x EPS of $2.56/$2.69. 1Q09 Financial Results On May 7, 2009, IDA reported 1Q09 net income of $18.9m or $0.40 per share compared to a net income of $21.7m or $0.48 per share in 1Q08. Idaho Power Company reported 1Q09 net income of $19.3m compared to $21.3m in 1Q08. IDACORP Financial Services (IFS) contributed $141k in 1Q09 compared to $801k in 1Q08. 1Q09 decreased results were primarily attributable to the impact of certain changes to IPC’s Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) mechanism. In May 2008, the Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC) issued an order that changed the allocation method of base power supply costs and as a result, 1Q08 PCA expenses were $6.4m lower than 1Q09. 1Q09 results were also impacted by a 5% decrease in sales volumes due to weather and a decline in commercial and industrial sales, partially offset by the effects of the Load Growth Adjustment Rate (LGAR) and Fixed Cost Adjustment (FCA) mechanisms, a $1.7m reduction in income related to a 2006 FERC fee refund, a $1.7m decrease in operating income due to a decrease in the Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT), partially offset by a $4.1m increase in income from Bridger Coal Company, a $2.2m increase in other income related to life insurance investments, and a $1.6m increase in interest income. In 1Q09, IPC capital expenditures totaled approximately $50m, and the Company expects utility capital expenditures to be approximately $780-$800m in 2009- 2011. Company Guidance Unchanged The company reaffirmed its 2009 operating/financial assumptions including: maintenance expense of $280-$290m, Idaho Power capex of $220-$230m (excludes Langley Gulch baseload plant proposal), hydro generation of 6.5-8.5m MWh, non-regulated subsidiary earnings of $0.0-$3.0m, Idaho Power effective tax rate of 31-35%, and consolidated tax rate of 24-28%. 2009-2011 capital expenditures total $780-$800m (excluding potential baseload resource) with the bulk of spending to occur in 2010-2011 and includes siting and permitting of transmission expansions). The company expects to finance 2009 capital expenditures with operating cash flow, continuous equity program and debt financing. Cash and Earnings Expectations We estimate 2009 EPS of $2.56 per share. Our assumptions include: lower projected O&M expense, lower depreciation expense, rate relief, and minimal earnings variability from hydro conditions, partially offset by lower non-regulated earnings, higher tax rate, and load growth of 1.2%. We estimate 2010 EPS of $2.69 per share. Our assumptions include: continued cost controls, rate relief, and load growth of 2%. IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 3 - Other Highlights On March 9, 2009, IDA filed an application with the IPUC requesting a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) for the 300MW Langley Gulch natural gas-fired CCCT power plant. The Company anticipates beginning construction in summer 2010 at an estimated cost of $427m with an expected in- service date of December 2012. If approved, IPC expects to spend an additional $45m to $50m on the project in 2009. IPUC approval is expected 3Q09. The Gateway West Project is a series of transmission lines between Windstar and Hemingway that IPC is currently jointly exploring with PacifiCorp (private). IPC’s share of the project’s estimated cost is expected to be between $500m and $600m; $40m of initial costs are already included in IPC’s 2009-2011 capital expenditures, however, the remaining construction costs are not currently included in the company’s forecast. The initial phase of the project could be completed by 2014 and the remaining phases could be constructed as demand requires. IPC is also exploring options to build a 500kV transmission line from Boardman to Hemingway. The Boardman-Hemingway Line is estimated to cost $600m and IPC is currently seeking partners for up to 50% the project. The initial project phase is estimated to cost $50m and will be funded by IPC. While initial costs are included in IPC’s 2009-2011 forecast, construction costs for the project are not currently included. The project’s estimated in-service date has been delayed from 2013 to 2015 subject to siting, permitting and other regulatory approvals. Senate Bill 1123 (SB1123) is designed to allow a utility to file an application with the IPUC for an order specifying in advance the ratemaking treatments (ROE, depreciation life, etc) that would apply when the costs of the proposed project are included in a utility’s revenue requirement. The goal is to provide more certainty for adequate cost recovery and attractive financing for large-scale projects during a time in which new infrastructure investment is needed to alleviate constraints on the grid, meet supply needs, and accommodate new large load requests as various companies consider locating in Idaho. IDA has requested SB 1123 treatment for its proposed Langley Gulch baseload generation plant. Primary Risks The primary risks of an investment in IDA shares include (but are not limited to); pending regulatory issues, under-recovery of volatile supply costs including power, fuel and natural gas, regulatory allowance of the recovery of power costs, operating costs and capital investments, uncertain stream flow and weather conditions, legislation/regulation changes, generation plant availability (unplanned outages), access to capital markets, litigation, pension requirements, changes in wholesale energy prices, execution risk, hydro relicensing, changes in regional economy, increased employee related costs. See Appendix A for additional risk factors. IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 4 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 5 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 15% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 15% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 15% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (as of 05/01/09) Buy 76% (5% are banking clients) Neutral 22% (0% are banking clients) Sell 2% (50% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 6 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. 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Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses. The information and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2009 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.