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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDA113010.pdf Please refer to pages 6-7 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. * D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security. Institutional Equity Research IDACORP, INC. December 1, 2010 IDA* – NYSE Rating: Buy Price: (11/30/10) $36.32 Price Targets: 12-18 month: $42.00 5-year: $48.00 Industry: Utilities James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA 406.791.7230 jbellessa@dadco.com Michael Bates Research Associate 406.791.7216 mbates@dadco.com Adjusting Forecasts and Initiating 2012 Projection. BUY Rating Reiterated. • Raising 2010 EPS estimate. We are adjusting our 2010 EPS estimate from $2.78 to $2.89, primarily to reflect the positive 3Q’10 earnings variance from our forecast. IDACORP reported 3Q’10 EPS of $1.39, up 20% from $1.16 a year earlier and above our projection of $1.28. The improvement in results was due to regulatory changes and lower taxes, partially offset by a decline in kilowatt-hour sales due to milder summer temperatures and a weak local economy. Our new 2010 estimate is at the upper end of management’s new guidance range, which was raised a dime to $2.75-$2.90. • Adjusting 2011 EPS forecast. As we build out our 2011 forecast by quarter, we are lowering our estimate from $2.90 to $2.80, as the economic upturn in the company’s service territory appears to be slower to develop than our previous assumption and the company’s tax rate appears hard to tack down. The tax picture is obscured by two income tax projects involving capitalized repair expenditures and uniform capitalization method change, and their related liabilities for uncertain tax positions. Net-net, the effect on earnings and cash from the tax issues have been favorable and should be favorable in the future (the tax benefits are reducing the company’s capital funding requirements and increasing the equity base for future rate cases), but the magnitude and timing of the future benefits are still unknown and largely reliant on approval by the U.S. Congress Joint Committee on Taxation. • Initiating 2012 EPS projection. We are rolling out our 2012 EPS projection at $3.00, which assumes mid-year 2012 rate relief for the rate basing of the Langley Gulch power plant and other capital projects. • We are maintaining our 12-18 month price target of $42, which equates to 14.5x the average of our 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates. Over the past five years, the shares of IDA have been accorded an average P/E valuation of 14.4x year- forward earnings. At the current price, we are maintaining our BUY rating for the stock’s total return prospects. Valuation Data Long-term growth rate (E) 5% Total Debt/Cap (9/30/10) 51.6% Cash per share (9/30/10) $3.77 Book value per share (9/30/10) $30.89 Dividend (yield) $1.20 (3.3%) Return on Equity (T-T-M) 10.1% Trading Data Shares outstanding (M) 49.1 Market Capitalization ($M) $1,784 52-week range $29.22 - $37.34 Average daily volume (3 mos.) (K) 270 Float 98% Index Membership S&P 400 FY (Dec) 2009A 2010E Previous 2011E Previous Revenue ($M) Q1 (Mar) $228.6 $253.0 A - $254.5 n.a. Q2 (Jun) $243.6 $241.8 A - $261.3 n.a. Q3 (Sep) $324.5 $309.4 A $325.4 $332.8 n.a. Q4 (Dec) $253.1 $249.4 E $254.7 $262.1 n.a. $1,049.8 $1,053.5 E $1,074.8 $1,110.7 $1,147.7 Price/Revenue 1.6x 1.7x 1.6x EPS Q1 (Mar) $0.40 $0.34 A - $0.43 n.a. Q2 (Jun) $0.58 $0.82 A - $0.85 n.a. Q3 (Sep) $1.16 $1.39 A $1.28 $1.03 n.a. Q4 (Dec) $0.49 $0.35 E $0.35 $0.49 n.a. $2.64 $2.89 E $2.78 $2.80 $2.90 Price/EPS 13.8x 12.6x 13.0x EBITDA ($M) Q1 (Mar) $73.7 $69.0 A - $79.6 n.a. Q2 (Jun) $77.8 $70.2 A - $106.5 n.a. Q3 (Sep) $115.2 $122.8 A $127.9 $118.8 n.a. Q4 (Dec) $72.4 $71.8 E $75.0 $85.8 n.a. $339.2 $333.8 E $342.0 $390.8 $407.9 EV/EBITDA 9.5x 9.6x 8.2x D.A. Davidson & Co. 2 Price Chart 29.00 30.00 31.00 32.00 33.00 34.00 35.00 36.00 37.00 IDACORP Inc. (IDA-US) 27-Nov-2009 to 30-Nov-2010 (Daily)High:37.34 Low: 29.22 Last: 36.32 12/01/09 01/01/10 02/01/10 03/01/10 04/01/10 05/03/10 06/01/10 07/01/10 08/02/10 09/01/10 10/01/10 11/01/10 0.2M 0.4M 0.6M 0.8M 1M ©FactSet Research Systems Volume in millions Source: FactSet Company Description: Boise, ID -- IDACORP, Inc. is the holding company for the Idaho Power Company, an electric public utility that serves an approximate 24,000 square mile area in Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Non-regulated subsidiaries include an affordable housing project finance company and an operator of small hydroelectric generation projects. Potential Risks: • Regulatory. Idaho Power is required to seek and receive approval from state and federal regulators before making changes to its utility rates and business practices, executing acquisitions, and raising capital. Changes in the regulatory environment could influence the utility’s credit ratings and its ability to attract returns on its investments. • Interest rates and access to capital markets. Dividend-paying stocks, especially utility issues like IDACORP, Inc., are sensitive to interest rates. A material increase in market interest rates may lead to compression in utility stock prices. We also note that IDACORP’s ability to obtain capital under competitive terms and rates is critical to executing its capital expenditure programs. • Legislative. New legislation may be enacted to address the effects of climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which would likely have a significant impact on the electric utility industry. • Commodity prices. IDACORP is exposed to the risks of fluctuations in the price of several commodities, including natural gas, wholesale electricity, and coal. Although these risks are partially mitigated in the ratemaking process, the utility absorbs/receives a portion of the risks/benefits when costs deviate materially from levels approved in base rates. • Economic and weather conditions. Economic conditions influence customer demand for utility services, as well as demand for the services of IDACORP’s non-utility subsidiaries. Demand for utility services is also affected by weather conditions, which our model assumes will match historical averages. • IRS audits. IDACORP’s records for the 2009 and 2010 tax years are subject to IRS audit through IDA’s participation in the Compliance Assurance Process (CAP) program, which is specifically investigating the company’s method of uniform capitalization of mixed service costs. At this point we are unable to predict what impact these investigations will have on IDACORP’s business. D.A. Davidson & Co. 3 Regulatory Update Revenue Increase/Decrease verage Rate Base Return on Equity Return on Rate Base Equity Ratio Effective, January 2010 $88.7 (+9.9%) Effective, June 2010 -$58.2 (-6.5%) Effective, March 2010 $5.0 (+15.4%) $111 10.2% 8.06% 49.8% 2008 Idaho Rate Case Effective, March 2009 $27.0 (+4.0%) $2,094 10.5% 8.18% 49.3% ($ in millions) 2009 Oregon General Rate Case 1 In January 2010, the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) approved a settlement agreement with respect to rates for 2009–2011, including four important elements: (1) a general rate freeze until January 1, 2012, with some exceptions (including adjustments to the power cost adjustment (PCA) and fixed cost adjustment (FCA)); (2) a specified distribution of the expected 2010 PCA decrease to directly reduce customer rates, providing some general rate relief to Idaho Power and resetting base level power supply costs for the PCA going forward; (3) use of up to $45 million of accumulated deferred investment tax credits (ADITC) to get to a 9.5% ROE in the Idaho jurisdiction; and (4) an equal sharing of any Idaho earnings exceeding the authorized level of 10.5%. 2010 Idaho PCA filing 2 2 As part of the 2010 Idaho settlement agreement, Idaho Power's $146.9 million rate reduction associated with the PCA was partially offset by a base rate increase of $88.7 million, consisting of a $63.7 million increase in base power supply costs and a $25 million increase in base rates. The net effect of these two rate adjustments is an overall decrease in customer rates of $58.2 million (-6.49%). 2010 Idaho Rate Settlement 1 Notes to Regulatory Summary Last Updated: 11/30/10 D.A. Davidson & Co. 4 IDACORP, Inc. – Quarterly Financial Position ($ in thousands) -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2008 1Q'09 2Q'09 3Q'09 2009 1Q'10 2Q'10 3Q'10 Current Assets: Cash And Cash Equivalents $8,828 $89,113 $16,002 $28,869 $52,987 $41,436 $29,488 $185,313 Receivables: Customer 64,733 70,919 70,777 83,990 76,792 71,518 64,216 69,263 Allowance For Uncollectible Accounts (1,724) (1,482) (1,247) (1,534) (2,878) Employee Notes Receivable 179 Other 10,260 15,099 14,226 12,242 12,995 10,903 23,171 6,405 Taxes Receivable 18,111 9,710 99 1,874 37,758 Accrued Unbilled Revenues 43,934 35,751 48,265 49,779 51,272 40,033 51,399 46,663 Materials And Supplies (At Avg. Cost) 50,121 52,778 51,251 50,599 48,054 47,535 47,436 45,331 Fuel Stock (At Average Cost) 16,852 13,941 23,331 22,346 25,634 25,006 29,206 30,052 Prepayments 10,059 9,878 9,493 11,659 11,111 8,810 10,340 9,983 Deferred Income Taxes 37,550 14,792 14,731 14,739 31,773 31,773 31,817 31,219 Other Current Assets 7,381 8,956 8,602 3,105 2,666 4,413 5,917 5,901 Total Current Assets $266,284 $319,455 $255,530 $275,794 $310,406 $281,427 $294,864 $467,888 Investments And Other Property 198,552 185,532 193,548 197,861 195,298 200,458 197,657 198,928 Total Other Assets 799,844 795,881 799,110 796,494 816,015 779,520 772,095 820,398 Electric Plant: In Service (At Original Cost) $4,030,134 $4,077,121 $4,107,992 $4,141,054 $4,160,178 $4,177,048 $4,212,394 $4,291,987 Accumulated Provision For Depreciation (1,505,120) (1,520,896) (1,540,469) (1,556,226) (1,558,538) (1,565,201) (1,586,118) (1,602,268) In Service - Net $2,525,014 $2,556,225 $2,567,523 $2,584,828 $2,601,640 $2,611,847 $2,626,276 $2,689,719 Construction Work In Progress 207,662 186,662 201,155 236,632 289,188 323,116 363,982 370,950 Held For Future Use 6,318 6,653 6,653 6,549 7,151 7,149 7,106 7,082 Other Property, Net Of Accum. Depreciation 19,171 19,270 19,157 19,134 19,029 18,915 18,807 19,428 Property, Plant And Equipment - Net $2,758,165 $2,768,810 $2,794,488 $2,847,143 $2,917,008 $2,961,027 $3,016,171 $3,087,179 Total Assets $4,022,845 $4,069,678 $4,042,676 $4,117,292 $4,238,727 $4,222,432 $4,280,787 $4,574,393 Current Liabilities: Long-Term Debt Due Within One Year $86,528 $81,502 $83,502 $84,064 $9,340 $131,951 $129,800 $126,615 Notes Payable 151,250 150,700 79,099 36,780 53,750 26,100 17,500 4,000 Accounts Payable 96,785 53,010 66,038 88,136 83,818 53,040 78,075 80,892 Taxes Accured 20,531 10,184 40,118 21,456 0 Interest Accrued 16,727 24,054 17,919 27,680 20,056 25,682 21,821 26,250 Uncertain Tax Positions 4,119 4,509 75,136 Other Current Liabilities 40,259 47,017 44,069 37,761 41,081 51,325 70,323 69,557 Total Current Liabilities $395,668 $360,792 $290,627 $294,952 $218,229 $328,216 $338,975 $382,450 Total Other Liabilities 1,136,855 1,116,709 1,137,982 1,154,651 1,209,224 1,197,024 1,219,170 1,182,470 Noncontrolling Interest 4,434 3,987 4,082 4,311 4,209 4,003 4,031 4,031 Long-Term Debt 1,183,451 1,279,504 1,283,570 1,282,900 1,409,730 1,290,243 1,288,802 1,488,205 Total Common Stock Equity $1,302,437 $1,308,686 $1,326,415 $1,380,478 $1,397,335 $1,402,946 $1,429,826 $1,517,247 Total Capitalization And Liabilities $2,720,408 $2,760,992 $2,716,261 $2,736,814 $2,841,392 $2,819,486 $4,280,787 $4,574,393 Common Shares Outstanding (End of Period)46,920 47,145 47,248 47,650 47,897 48,098 48,164 49,125 Total Debt (end of period)1,421,229 1,511,706 1,446,171 1,403,744 1,472,820 1,448,294 1,436,102 1,618,820 Total Debt (average)1,388,005 1,466,468 1,478,939 1,424,958 1,447,025 1,460,557 1,442,198 1,527,461 Book Value Per Share $27.76 $27.76 $28.07 $28.97 $29.17 $29.17 $29.69 $30.89 Current Ratio 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 Capital Structure: Common Equity 47.8% 46.4% 47.8% 49.6% 48.7% 49.2% 49.9% 48.4% Debt (Short-Term & Long-Term)52.2% 53.6% 52.2% 50.4% 51.3% 50.8% 50.1% 51.6% Capitalization 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% D.A. Davidson & Co. 5 IDACORP, Inc. – Historical and Projected Operating Results ($ in thousands) -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 3Q'09 4Q'09 2009 1Q'10 2Q'10 3Q'10 4Q'10E 2010E 1Q'11E 2Q'11E 3Q'11E 4Q'11E 2011E 2012E REVENUES: Electric Utility: General Business $277,676 $219,947 $883,765 $203,745 $204,277 $266,270 $216,164 $890,456 $213,632 $218,748 $278,028 $221,279 $931,687 $974,719 Off System Sales 23,691 15,485 94,373 34,406 17,769 12,070 14,605 78,850 25,525 22,683 23,951 21,968 94,127 109,925 Other Revenues 21,761 16,889 67,858 14,309 18,744 30,128 17,800 80,981 14,500 19,000 30,000 18,000 81,500 83,500 Total Electric Utility Revenues 323,128 252,321 1,045,996 252,460 240,790 308,468 248,569 1,050,287 253,657 260,431 331,979 261,247 1,107,314 1,168,144 Diversified Operations: Other 1,381 762 3,804 503 963 889 850 3,205 850 850 850 850 3,400 3,500 Total Revenues $324,509 $253,083 $1,049,800 $252,963 $241,753 $309,357 $249,419 $1,053,492 $254,507 $261,281 $332,829 $262,097 $1,110,714 $1,171,644 EXPENSES: Electric Utility: Purchased Power $73,483 $29,200 $160,569 $21,174 $30,349 $62,227 $33,092 $146,842 $40,166 $28,500 $54,133 $32,654 $155,453 $169,012 Fuel Expense 49,530 36,428 149,566 37,187 27,558 51,339 39,771 155,855 41,092 28,127 54,445 41,800 165,463 175,222 Third Party Transmission Expense 2,791 1,156 6,629 0 Power Cost Adjustment 1,614 22,475 66,710 48,324 28,071 (20,934) 10,000 65,461 8,250 8,250 8,250 8,250 33,000 30,000 Total Power Supply $127,418 $89,259 $383,474 $106,685 $85,978 $92,632 $82,863 $368,158 $89,509 $64,877 $116,827 $82,703 $353,916 $374,233 Other Operations And Maintenance 68,970 80,719 293,111 72,094 75,125 71,939 81,779 300,937 78,634 79,432 76,355 83,599 318,019 327,080 Energy Efficiency Programs 12,202 6,888 31,821 5,034 8,765 19,549 8,500 41,848 6,000 9,500 20,000 9,000 44,500 46,000 Gain On Sale Of Emission Allowances (9)(298)0 0 0 Depreciation 28,837 28,994 110,626 28,583 28,726 29,137 30,000 116,446 30,250 30,500 30,750 31,000 122,500 125,000 Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 5,600 5,319 21,069 5,680 5,805 5,645 5,469 22,599 5,580 5,729 5,644 5,747 22,701 23,363 Total Electric Utility Expenses $243,027 $211,170 $839,803 $218,076 $204,399 $218,902 $208,610 $849,987 $209,973 $190,038 $249,576 $212,050 $861,636 $895,677 Other Expenses 1,879 3,039 6,414 840 749 1,462 3,000 6,051 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 4,800 5,000 Total Operating Expenses $244,906 $214,209 $846,217 $218,916 $205,148 $220,364 $211,610 $856,038 $211,173 $191,238 $250,776 $213,250 $866,436 $900,677 OPERATING INCOME: Electric Utility $80,101 $41,151 $206,193 $34,384 $36,391 $89,566 $39,958 $200,299 $43,684 $70,394 $82,403 $49,197 $245,678 $272,467 Other Diversified Operations (498) (2,277)(2,610)(337) 214 (573) (2,150)(2,846)(350) (350) (350) (350)(1,400) (1,500) Equity In Earnings Of Partnerships Combined Operating Income $79,603 $38,874 $203,583 $34,047 $36,605 $88,993 $37,808 $197,453 $43,334 $70,044 $82,053 $48,847 $244,278 $270,967 Total Other Income: 4,569 1,449 16,997 4,481 3,012 3,550 1,500 12,543 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 14,000 15,000 Earnings Of Uncons. Eq-Method Inv. 2,866 (1,681)(1,033)(2,378) 380 3,442 (1,000)444 (750) (750) (750) (750)(3,000) (3,000) Total Other Expenses: INTEREST EXPENSE AND OTHER: Interest On Long-Term Debt $18,840 $19,610 $73,371 $19,441 $19,427 $20,135 $20,500 $79,503 $20,600 $20,700 $20,800 $20,900 $83,000 $84,000 Other Interest (239) (1,041)(561)(453) (2,038) (1,390) (1,500)(5,381)(750) (750) (750) (750)(3,000) 2,000 Total Interest Expense And Other $18,601 $18,569 $72,810 $18,988 $17,389 $18,745 $19,000 $74,122 $19,850 $19,950 $20,050 $20,150 $80,000 $86,000 Income Before Income Taxes: 68,437 20,073 146,737 17,162 22,608 77,240 19,308 136,318 26,234 52,844 64,753 31,447 175,278 196,967 Income Taxes: 13,730 (3,339)22,362 1,305 (16,629) 10,115 2,317 (2,892)5,247 10,569 12,951 6,289 35,056 39,393 Tax Rate 20% -17% 15% 8% -74% 13% 12%-2%20% 20% 20% 20%20% 20% Income From Continuing Operations $54,707 $23,412 $124,375 $15,857 $39,237 $67,125 $16,991 $139,210 $20,987 $42,275 $51,802 $25,158 $140,222 $157,574 Losses From Disc. Ops. (Net Of Tax) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Income $54,707 $23,412 $124,375 $15,857 $39,237 $67,125 $16,991 $139,210 $20,987 $42,275 $51,802 $25,158 $140,222 $157,574 Adjustment For Noncontrolling Interest (229) 101 (25)206 (28) 10 50 238 50 50 50 50 200 300 Net Income Available For Common $54,478 $23,513 $124,350 $16,063 $39,209 $67,135 $17,041 $139,448 $21,037 $42,325 $51,852 $25,208 $140,422 $157,874 Avg. Common Shares Outstanding (000) 47,141 47,724 47,182 47,885 48,048 48,252 48,652 48,209 49,252 49,852 50,452 51,052 50,152 52,652 Earnings Per Share (Diluted)$1.16 $0.49 $2.64 $0.34 $0.82 $1.39 $0.35 $2.89 $0.43 $0.85 $1.03 $0.49 $2.80 $3.00 Dividends Per Common Share $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $1.20 Dividend Payout Ratio 26% 61%46%89% 37% 22% 86%41%70% 35% 29% 61%43% 40% EPS By Segment Idaho Power Company $1.08 $0.54 $2.60 $0.38 $0.81 $1.34 $0.34 $2.87 $0.41 $0.84 $1.02 $0.48 $2.76 $2.95 Idacorp Energy (0.00) (0.00)(0.01)0.00 (0.00) (0.00) Ida-West Energy 0.03 (0.00)0.06 0.00 0.02 0.02 Idacorp Financial 0.01 (0.00)0.01 (0.00) 0.00 (0.01) Holding Company 0.04 (0.05)(0.03)(0.05) (0.01) 0.04 Reported Eps, Diluted $1.16 $0.49 $2.64 $0.34 $0.82 $1.39 $0.35 $2.89 $0.43 $0.85 $1.03 $0.49 $2.80 $3.00 D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2010. All rights reserved. 6 Required Disclosures D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA and Michael Bates, the research analysts principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions. We, James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA and Michael Bates, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Ratings Information D.A. Davidson & Co. Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform Risk adjusted return potential azbycx Over 15% total return expected on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months >0-15% return potential on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Likely to remain flat or lose value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Distribution of Ratings (as of 9/30/10) Buy Hold Sell Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform and Distribution 56% 39% 5% Corresponding Individual Investor Group Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform and Distribution 88% 12% 0% Distribution of Combined Ratings 60% 36% 4% Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos. Institutional Coverage 7% 3% 18% Individual Investor Group Coverage 0% 33% 0% Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 6% 4% 18% D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2010. All rights reserved. 7 Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria. Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends. Other Disclosures Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee, express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.