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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDA111009.pdf Please see page 7 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. November 10, 2009 Equit Research IDACORP, Inc. IDA: Raising EPS Estimates And Valuation Range Rate Agreement Details Appear Constructive • Summary. We view the settlement between IDA, the IPUC Staff and key customer groups favorably. We are increasing our 09E-11E EPS by roughly 2-4% to $2.40, $2.50 and $2.65 from $2.35, $2.45 and $2.55, respectively. We are also increasing our valuation range to $30-31 from $29-30 and reiterating our Market Perform rating. • EPS Outlook. We are increasing our 2009E EPS to $2.40 from $2.35 largely reflecting a higher expected earned ROE in Idaho based on better than expected 3Q results, an improved hydro outlook and the recent rate settlement. We are also increasing our 10E-11E EPS to $2.50 and $2.65 from $2.45 and $2.55 also reflecting a higher earned ROE in Idaho based on the filed rate settlement, which we view constructively, and a modest acceleration of Langley Gulch CapEx, which increases AFUDC earnings in 2010 and, to a greater degree, 2011. • Rate Settlement. On 11/9, IDA filed an 8-K detailing its previously announced Idaho rate settlement. The agreement proposes to divide the benefit of an expected decline in the Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) between the company and customers as well as apply a portion of the decrease to absorb an expected base power supply cost increase. Based on the current PCA estimate, this would result in a $25mm base rate increase in mid-2010. Other provisions include the ability for IDA to amortize up to $45mm of Accumulated Deferred Investment Tax Credits (ADITC) if the Idaho jurisdictional ROE falls below 9.5% in 09, 10 or 11; and provides 50/50 sharing of earnings above a 10.5% ROE between customers/shareholders. We view the settlement constructively and believe it provides IDA a reasonable opportunity to earn its allowed ROE as well as demonstrates a continued ability to work constructively with the IPUC Staff. • We are Reiterating our Market Perform Rating and increasing our valuation range to $30-31 from $29-30 based on the improved EPS outlook. We continue to be impressed by IDA’s ability to secure constructive regulatory outcomes, which have reduced earnings volatility and enhanced the company’s ability to earn its allowed ROE. Our neutral rating reflects valuation considerations and exposure, albeit modest at this point, to power supply costs. Shares trade in-line with the Regulated peer group on 10E and 11E EPS, which we consider to be fair. With that being said, as we are increasingly comfortable with the Idaho regulatory environment and increasingly confident in our EPS outlook, we will monitor the share price for a more attractive entry point. Valuation Range: $30.00 to $31.00 from $29.00 to $30.00 We value IDA under P/E multiple (apply an 11.5X multiple to our 11E EPS of $2.65) and dividend discount analysis. Risks to our valuation include project delays or cancellations and consistently below average hydroelectric conditions. Investment Thesis: We are attracted to Idaho's service territory and strong rate base growth potential, and are encouraged by recent regulatory improvements. Our neutral rating largely reflects valuation considerations. Market Perform Sector: Regulated Electric Utilities Market Weight Earnings Estimates Revised Up 2008 2009E 2010E EPS Curr. Prior Curr. Prior Q1 (Mar.) $0.48 $0.40 A NC NE Q2 (June) 0.39 0.58 A NC NE Q3 (Sep.) 1.14 1.16 A 1.11 NE Q4 (Dec.) 0.16 0.26 NC NE FY $2.17 $2.40 2.35 $2.50 2.45 CY $2.17 $2.40 $2.50 FY P/E 13.6x 12.3x 11.8x Rev.(MM $960 $984 $1,021 Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate, NM = Not Meaningful Ticker IDA Price (11/10/2009) $29.52 52-Week Range: $20-31 Shares Outstanding: (MM) 47.3 Market Cap.: (MM) $1,396.3 S&P 500: 1,092.18 Avg. Daily Vol.: 334,274 Dividend/Yield: $1.20/4.1% LT Debt: (MM) $1,282.9 LT Debt/Total Cap.: 46.0% ROE: 9.0% 3-5 Yr. Est. Growth Rate: 5.0% CY 2009 Est. P/E-to-Growth: 2.5x Last Reporting Date: 10/28/2009 Before Open Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters Neil Kalton, CFA, Senior Analyst (314) 955-5239 / neil.kalton@wachovia.comSarah Akers, Associate Analyst (314) 955-6209 / sarah.akers@wachovia.com Jonathan Reeder, Associate Analyst (314) 955-2462 / jonathan.reeder@wachovia.com WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 2 Company Description: IDACORP (IDA) is the holding company for Idaho Power Company (IPC), a regulated electric utility serving more than 485,000 customers in southern Idaho, including Boise and surrounding areas, and eastern Oregon. In addition, IDACORP Financial Services (IFS), a non-utility business, invests in affordable housing tax credits. IDA Files Idaho Rate Settlement Having indicated that parties reached an agreement in principle on its third quarter earnings call, IDA provided details of the formalized settlement in its November 9th 8-K filing. The settlement, which will be in lieu of filing a general rate case, includes both base rate and ROE provisions and is being endorsed by the company, the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) Staff and key customer groups, including irrigation and industrial customers. The settlement is subject to IPUC approval, which is expected in late 2009 or early 2010. Overall, we view the rate settlement constructively and supportive of our belief that Idaho regulation has become increasingly reasonable over the last 12-18 months. • Base Rate Increase - The settlement calls for the sharing of a reduction of the Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) for the 2010-2011 PCA year between IDA and customers. Based on the current estimated PCA reduction of $160 million, which will be finalized following IDA’s planned April 15, 2010 filing, (1) IDA would retain $25 million of the benefit as an increase to base rate revenues effective June 1, 2010, (2) customers would receive a $60 million benefit and (3) the $75 million balance would serve to absorb any increase in the level of base net power supply costs. We view this positively as (1) it provides IDA reasonable base rate relief and (2) it reduces the headline risk related to a likely increase in base power supply costs. We point out that in IDA’s last rate case the base rate increase and base power supply increase were grouped together and the result was a very modest base rate increase as the majority of the headline number was actually driven by power supply costs, which do not flow through to IDA’s bottom line. • ROE – The agreement includes an allowed ROE of 10.5%, which is consistent with the ROE approved in Idaho Power’s previous rate case, and provides for 50/50 sharing of earnings above the 10.5% ROE between customers and shareholders. In the event the Idaho-jurisdictional ROE is going to fall short of a 9.5% ROE, IDA can amortize up to $45 million of Accumulated Deferred Investment Tax Credits (ADITC) over the 2009-2011 period in order to help achieve a minimum ROE of 9.5%. Annual limits of $15 million in 2009 and $25 million in both 2010 and 2011 apply. It is our understanding that any benefit from employing ADITC amortizations will be realized in the fourth quarter of each year, allowing IDA to determine what the actual full-year earned ROE will be. As a result, even though the timing of the rate increase for IDA and rate decrease for customers occurs in mid-2010, the ADITC provision could actually have an impact on earnings as early as 2009. If the Idaho jurisdictional ROE is 9.5% or above, IDA will not have the opportunity to utilize the ADITC amortizations, but unused amounts can be carried over for future use subject to the $25 million annual limits in 2010 and 2011, respectively. From an accounting perspective, it is our understanding that the ADITC would show up as an offset to income taxes in a given year, thereby lowering the effective tax rate. We view the ROE guidelines favorably as the ADITC provision should help IDA earn at least a 9.5% ROE during the period 2009-2011, which the company has struggled to achieve in recent years due largely to below average hydro conditions. While the ADITC provisions are temporary in nature, this is not of particular concern to us as we expect IDA will only need to utilize this lever should there be a poor hydro year, for example, since we expect the base rate relief in mid-2010 will allow IDA earn at least a 9.5% ROE under normal circumstances. Separately, we do not view the 50/50 sharing above 10.5% as necessarily indicative of a greater possibility for IDA to over-earn the allowed ROE, but rather (1) as a means to provide some WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC IDACORP, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 3 balance to the formula given the ADITC provision, which provides some downside protection to the earned ROE in Idaho, and (2) to assuage the concerns of other parties, such as the Staff, that IDA could over-earn the allowed ROE. The settlement agreement prohibits IDA from filing for new base rates effective before 1/1/12. As a result, the company could experience some measure of regulatory lag in the second half of 2011 and into 2012. We expect IDA’s next rate filing will be largely in sync with the commercial operation of Langley Gulch, which could come online as early as mid-2012 or as late as December 2012. EPS Outlook – Raising Estimates We are increasing our 2009-2011 EPS estimates by approximately 2-4% to $2.40, $2.50 and $2.65 from $2.35, $2.45 and $2.55, respectively, based on the filed rate settlement in Idaho, an assumed acceleration in the timing of Langley Gulch capital expenditures and a modest upward revision to expected hydro generation in 2009. Figure 1 below details the assumptions underlying our 2009- 2011 EPS estimates, after which we discus the estimate revisions in more detail. Figure 1: Key Assumptions for 2009-2011 EPS Outlook 2009E 2010E 2011E Idaho Jurisdictional Rate Base $ millions 2,094 2,244 2,352 E uit Ratio 49% 49% 49% Earned ROE* 9.4% 9.9% 9.9% Earnin s $ millions 95.9 108.9 114.1 EPS $2.00 $2.20 $2.19 AFUDC Earnin s $ millions Base 1.6 1.0 1.0 Lan le Gulch 0.7 5.9 13.0 Transmission Pro ects 0.0 0.0 0.3 Total AFUDC Earnin s $ millions 2.3 6.9 14.2 EPS $0.05 $0.14 $0.27 Transmission Rate Base $ millions 72 77 80 E uit Ratio 49% 49% 49% Earned ROE 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% Earnin s $ millions 3.9 4.1 4.3 EPS $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 Ore on Jurisdictional Rate Base $ millions 100 106 111 E uit Ratio 49% 49% 49% Earned ROE* 2.5% 7.0% 9.5% Earnin s $ millions 1.2 3.7 5.2 EPS $0.03 $0.07 $0.10 Unre ulated, Parent and Other $0.03 $0.00 $0.00 Bonus De reciation Benefit, Tax Settlement and Ore on Deferral Total EPS $2.40 $2.50 $2.65 * The assumed earned ROEs in 2009 exclude the benefit of federal bonus de reciation, a 2006 tax settlement and the deferral of reviousl incurred ower costs in Ore on. These items are ca tured in a se arate line item in the table. $0.21 $0.00 $0.00 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Estimates and company filings WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 4 2009. We are increasing our 2009 EPS estimate to $2.40 from $2.35 based on stronger than expected third quarter results (IDA reported EPS of $1.16 versus our estimate of $1.11), modestly improved hydro generation expectations (8.0-8.5 million MWh versus 7.5-8.5 million MWh previously), and ROE provisions related to potential ADITC amortizations included in the Idaho rate settlement. According to the settlement, Idaho Power will have the ability to employ Accumulated Deferred Investment Tax Credit (ADITC) amortizations to achieve a minimum Idaho jurisdictional ROE of 9.5% beginning in 2009. We are now assuming an earned ROE of 9.4% for Idaho, which excludes the positive impact of certain non-ADITC related tax benefits. It is our understanding that these tax benefits, which include federal bonus tax depreciation provisions and a 2006 tax settlement, will be factored into the ROE calculation to determine whether or not the company will earn below a 9.5% ROE. 2010 & 2011. We are increasing our 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates to $2.50 and $2.65, from $2.45 and $2.55, respectively, based on IDA’s filed rate settlement and an assumed acceleration of the timing of Langley Gulch-related capital expenditures. We accelerated some of the Langley Gulch capital expenditures in our model, resulting in slightly higher allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC) earnings in 2010 and, to a greater degree, 2011. It is our understanding that there is a possibility that Langley Gulch is completed in mid-2012 versus the original expectation of late 2012. As a result, we would expect a greater portion of the spending to occur in 2010 and 2011 versus 2012. Separately, we are now assuming earned ROEs of nearly 10% on IDA’s Idaho jurisdictional rate base, which reflects our view that the $25 million base rate increase in the rate settlement will give IDA a reasonable opportunity to earn the allowed ROE. This compares to our previous assumptions of 9.8% and 9.7% for 2010 and 2011, respectively, and to the 10.5% allowed ROE included in the Idaho rate settlement. The reason we do not assume the full 10.5% ROE reflects the fact that the new rates will not be effective until mid-2010 and some regulatory lag could set in the second half of 2011. Other assumptions baked into our estimates include mid-year 2010 rate relief for IDA’s Oregon operations and a $110 million equity issuance in mid-2011. We believe there could be some upside potential to our EPS estimates if hydro conditions are above average and/or IDA is able to control costs better than expected. By our calculations, every 50 basis point increase in the company’s earned ROE in Idaho has a roughly $0.10 per share positive impact on EPS. With that being said, under the current Idaho rate settlement terms, the upside is somewhat mitigated by the 50/50 sharing provisions for earnings above a 10.5% ROE. WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC IDACORP, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 5 ( i n t h o u s a n d s e x c e p t p e r s h a r e d a t a ) 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 E 2 0 1 0 E 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 3 E 2 0 1 4 E 2 0 1 5 E Re v e n u e s $ 8 4 2 , 8 6 4 $ 9 2 6 , 2 9 1 $ 8 7 9 , 3 9 4 $ 9 6 0 , 4 1 4 $ 9 8 4 , 4 1 5 $ 1 , 0 2 0 , 6 4 0 $ 1 , 0 6 0 , 8 0 0 $ 1 , 0 9 6 , 5 0 0 $ 1 , 1 7 0 , 8 0 5 $ 1 , 1 9 6 , 3 3 3 $ 1 , 2 3 3 , 9 0 4 Ex p e n s e s P u r c h a s e d P o w e r * 2 2 2 , 3 1 0 2 8 3 , 4 4 0 2 8 9 , 4 8 4 2 3 1 , 1 3 7 3 2 5 , 4 7 9 3 2 8 , 6 2 8 3 3 6 , 9 9 4 3 4 4 , 5 7 3 3 5 2 , 3 7 2 3 6 0 , 3 9 5 3 6 8 , 6 5 1 F u e l E x p e n s e 1 0 3 , 1 6 4 1 1 5 , 0 1 8 1 3 4 , 3 2 2 1 4 9 , 4 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P o w e r C o s t A d j u s t m e n t ( 2 , 9 9 5 ) ( 2 9 , 5 2 6 ) ( 1 2 1 , 1 3 1 ) ( 4 7 , 4 1 3 ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O t h e r O & M 2 4 2 , 3 8 1 2 6 4 , 8 1 0 2 8 6 , 5 1 0 2 9 4 , 0 2 9 2 8 7 , 8 0 5 2 9 6 , 7 7 4 3 0 4 , 1 9 3 3 1 1 , 7 9 8 3 1 9 , 5 9 3 3 2 7 , 5 8 3 3 3 5 , 7 7 3 D e p r e c i a t i o n 1 0 1 , 4 8 5 9 9 , 8 2 4 1 0 3 , 0 7 2 1 0 2 , 0 8 6 1 1 2 , 9 5 2 1 2 5 , 8 9 1 1 3 5 , 4 5 4 1 4 5 , 2 4 2 1 5 6 , 3 7 3 1 5 9 , 4 7 4 1 6 9 , 5 6 2 O t h e r T a x e s 2 0 , 8 5 6 1 8 , 6 6 1 1 7 , 6 3 4 1 9 , 0 8 3 1 9 , 4 6 5 1 9 , 8 5 4 2 0 , 2 5 1 2 0 , 6 5 6 2 1 , 0 6 9 2 1 , 4 9 1 2 1 , 9 2 0 O t h e r 2 , 1 8 2 1 2 , 6 1 7 1 7 , 4 2 5 2 1 , 4 2 2 2 1 , 9 2 6 2 1 , 9 2 6 2 1 , 9 2 6 2 1 , 9 2 6 2 1 , 9 2 6 2 1 , 9 2 6 2 1 , 9 2 6 To t a l E x p e n s e s $6 8 9 , 3 8 3 $7 6 4 , 8 4 4 $7 2 7 , 3 1 6 $7 6 9 , 7 4 7 $7 6 7 , 6 2 7 $7 9 3 , 0 7 3 $8 1 8 , 8 1 9 $8 4 4 , 1 9 5 $8 7 1 , 3 3 3 $8 9 0 , 8 6 9 $9 1 7 , 8 3 1 EB I T $ 1 5 3 , 4 8 1 $ 1 6 1 , 4 4 7 $ 1 5 2 , 0 7 8 $ 1 9 0 , 6 6 7 $ 2 1 6 , 7 8 8 $ 2 2 7 , 5 6 6 $ 2 4 1 , 9 8 2 $ 2 5 2 , 3 0 4 $ 2 9 9 , 4 7 2 $ 3 0 5 , 4 6 4 $ 3 1 6 , 0 7 2 Ot h e r I n c o m e 8 , 4 0 2 6 , 7 2 3 7 , 2 6 6 3 ( 4 0 1 ) 6 , 4 7 1 1 7 , 4 8 2 3 1 , 9 5 0 1 8 , 8 3 4 4 2 , 0 1 5 5 8 , 4 3 5 In t e r e s t E x p e n s e 5 9 , 7 2 9 6 0 , 9 7 5 6 3 , 3 4 1 7 3 , 0 5 6 7 0 , 2 1 9 5 9 , 0 0 5 6 2 , 9 9 9 6 7 , 6 2 7 8 3 , 9 0 3 8 6 , 7 4 5 9 2 , 9 5 8 In c o m e T a x e s 1 7 , 6 1 0 1 5 , 3 7 7 1 3 , 7 3 1 1 9 , 2 0 0 3 1 , 3 1 2 5 1 , 2 6 1 5 8 , 7 6 2 6 6 , 8 2 0 7 3 , 0 4 1 8 2 , 2 5 7 8 9 , 5 4 2 Ta x R a t e 1 9 % 1 4 % 1 5 % 1 6 % 2 1 % 2 9 % 3 0 % 3 1 % 3 1 % 3 2 % 3 2 % Ea r n i n g s In c o m e f r o m C o n t i n u i n g O p e r a t i o n s $ 8 4 , 5 4 4 $ 9 1 , 8 1 8 $ 8 2 , 2 7 2 $ 9 8 , 4 1 4 $ 1 1 4 , 8 5 6 $ 1 2 3 , 7 7 1 $ 1 3 7 , 7 0 2 $ 1 4 9 , 8 0 8 $ 1 6 1 , 3 6 2 $ 1 7 8 , 4 7 7 $ 1 9 2 , 0 0 7 Dis c o n t i n u e d O p e r a t i o n s 2 2 , 0 5 5 ( 7 , 3 2 8 ) ( 6 7 ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ne t I n c o m e $ 6 2 , 4 8 9 $ 9 9 , 1 4 6 $ 8 2 , 3 3 9 $ 9 8 , 4 1 4 $ 1 1 4 , 8 5 6 $ 1 2 3 , 7 7 1 $ 1 3 7 , 7 0 2 $ 1 4 9 , 8 0 8 $ 1 6 1 , 3 6 2 $ 1 7 8 , 4 7 7 $ 1 9 2 , 0 0 7 Av g D i l u t e d S h a r e s O u t s t a n d i n g 4 2 , 3 6 2 4 2 , 8 7 4 4 4 , 2 9 1 4 5 , 3 3 2 4 7 , 9 1 8 4 9 , 4 7 9 5 1 , 9 8 6 5 4 , 4 8 4 5 7 , 5 6 7 6 0 , 5 6 8 6 1 , 8 6 5 EP S $ 1 . 4 8 $ 2 . 3 1 $ 1 . 8 6 $ 2 . 1 7 $ 2 . 4 0 $ 2 . 5 0 $ 2 . 6 5 $ 2 . 7 5 $ 2 . 8 0 $ 2 . 9 5 $ 3 . 1 0 No n - R e c u r r i n g ( 0 . 3 9 ) 0 . 4 8 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 Op e r a t i n g E P S * $ 1 . 8 7 $ 1 . 8 3 $ 1 . 8 6 $ 2 . 1 7 $ 2 . 4 0 $ 2 . 5 0 $ 2 . 6 5 $ 2 . 7 5 $ 2 . 8 0 $ 2 . 9 5 $ 3 . 1 0 Su p p l e m e n t a l I n f o r m a t i o n 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 E 2 0 1 0 E 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 3 E 2 0 1 4 E 2 0 1 5 E Di v i d e n d I n f o r m a t i o n Div i d e n d s P e r S h a r e - Y E R a t e $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 2 0 $ 1 . 2 6 $ 1 . 3 2 $ 1 . 3 9 $ 1 . 4 9 $ 1 . 5 9 $ 1 . 7 0 Div i d e n d s P a i d P e r S h a r e 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 6 1 . 3 2 1 . 3 9 1 . 4 9 1 . 5 9 1 . 7 0 Pa y o u t R a t i o 6 4 % 6 6 % 6 5 % 5 5 % 5 0 % 5 0 % 5 0 % 5 1 % 5 3 % 5 4 % 5 5 % St a t i s t i c s EB I T D A / S h a r e $ 6 . 0 2 $ 6 . 0 9 $ 5 . 7 6 $ 6 . 4 6 $ 6 . 8 8 $ 7 . 1 4 $ 7 . 2 6 $ 7 . 3 0 $ 7 . 9 2 $ 7 . 6 8 $ 7 . 8 5 Ca s h F l o w / S h a r e 3 . 8 2 3 . 9 7 1 . 8 3 3 . 0 2 5 . 5 2 5 . 0 6 4 . 1 9 4 . 0 2 4 . 6 2 4 . 8 5 4 . 7 5 Bo o k V a l u e / S h a r e ( y e a r e n d ) 2 4 . 0 4 2 5 . 6 0 2 6 . 7 9 2 7 . 7 5 2 8 . 9 5 3 0 . 2 0 3 1 . 5 8 3 2 . 9 8 3 4 . 4 3 3 5 . 8 5 3 7 . 3 3 Av e r a g e B o o k V a l u e / S h a r e 2 3 . 9 6 2 4 . 8 2 2 6 . 2 0 2 7 . 2 7 2 8 . 3 5 2 9 . 5 7 3 0 . 8 9 3 2 . 2 8 3 3 . 7 0 3 5 . 1 4 3 6 . 5 9 RO E o f I D A C O R P 7 . 9 % 8 . 2 % 7 . 1 % 8 . 0 % 8 . 5 % 8 . 5 % 8 . 6 % 8 . 5 % 8 . 3 % 8 . 4 % 8 . 5 % RO E o f I d a h o P o w e r C o m p a n 7. 7 % 9 . 6 % 7 . 2 % 8 . 2 % 8 . 7 % 8 . 0 % 8 . 1 % 8 . 0 % 7 . 8 % 7 . 9 % 8 . 0 % *2 0 0 9 E - 2 0 1 5 E " P u r c h a s e d P o w e r " l i n e i t e m i n c l u d e s e s t i m a t e d f u e l a n d P C A c o s t s . *O p e r a t i n g E P S e x c l u d e n o n - r e c u r r i n g i t e m s ; 0 9 E E P S i n c l u d e s b o n u s d e p r e c i a t i o n b e n e f i t , t a x s e t t l e m e n t a n d O r e g o n d e f e r r a l . So u r c e : W e l l s F a r g o S e c u r i t i e s , L L C e s t i m a t e s a n d c o m p a n y f i l i n g s Ea r n i n g s M o d e l WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 6 Ca s h F l o w M o d e l ( i n t h o u s a n d s ) 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 E 2 0 1 0 E 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 3 E 2 0 1 4 E 2 0 1 5 E Op e r a t i n g C a s h F l o w Ne t I n c o m e $ 6 3 , 6 6 1 $ 1 0 7 , 4 0 3 $ 8 2 , 3 3 9 $ 9 8 , 4 1 4 $ 1 1 4 , 8 5 6 $ 1 2 3 , 7 7 1 $ 1 3 7 , 7 0 2 $ 1 4 9 , 8 0 8 $ 1 6 1 , 3 6 2 $ 1 7 8 , 4 7 7 1 9 2 , 0 0 7 D e p r e c i a t i o n & A m o r t i z a t i o n 1 2 4 , 1 2 4 1 2 2 , 6 4 1 1 2 0 , 3 6 8 1 2 2 , 4 4 0 1 3 2 , 9 5 2 1 4 5 , 8 9 1 1 5 5 , 4 5 4 1 6 5 , 2 4 2 1 7 6 , 3 7 3 1 7 9 , 4 7 4 1 8 9 , 5 6 2 N e t O t h e r ( 3 4 , 5 2 0 ) ( 5 8 , 9 0 2 ) ( 1 0 8 , 9 5 4 ) ( 5 2 , 2 2 4 ) 1 5 , 6 1 6 ( 2 0 , 1 9 8 ) ( 7 5 , 9 3 3 ) ( 9 6 , 6 0 9 ) ( 7 2 , 8 6 5 ) ( 6 4 , 9 9 1 ) ( 8 8 , 4 5 5 ) W o r k i n g C a p i t a l 8 , 2 3 1 ( 1 , 3 6 4 ) ( 1 3 , 1 5 2 ) ( 3 2 , 1 1 7 ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ne t O p e r a t i n g C a s h F l o w $ 1 6 1 , 4 9 6 $ 1 6 9 , 7 7 8 $ 8 0 , 6 0 1 $ 1 3 6 , 5 1 3 $ 2 6 3 , 4 2 4 $ 2 4 9 , 4 6 4 $ 2 1 7 , 2 2 3 $ 2 1 8 , 4 4 1 $ 2 6 4 , 8 7 0 $ 2 9 2 , 9 6 1 $ 2 9 3 , 1 1 3 In v e s t i n g C a s h F l o w Co n s t r u c t i o n E x p e n d i t u r e s ( $ 1 9 3 , 3 1 4 ) ( $ 2 2 5 , 0 4 8 ) ( $ 2 8 7 , 2 1 9 ) ( $ 2 4 3 , 5 4 4 ) ( $ 2 7 4 , 5 0 0 ) ( $ 3 6 7 , 0 0 0 ) ( $ 3 6 8 , 6 0 0 ) ( $ 3 8 4 , 2 6 3 ) ( $ 4 7 1 , 9 9 1 ) ( $ 4 7 4 , 2 8 6 ) ( $ 30 1 , 6 4 9 ) In v e s t m e n t s i n A f f o r d a b l e H o u s i n g P r o j e c t s ( 4 , 9 9 2 ) ( 5 , 0 5 9 ) 3 4 8 ( 8 , 3 1 4 ) ( 1 5 , 0 0 0 ) ( 5 , 0 0 0 ) ( 5 , 0 0 0 ) ( 5 , 0 0 0 ) ( 5 , 0 0 0 ) ( 5 , 0 0 0 ) ( 5 , 0 0 0 ) Pr o c e e d s f r o m S a l e o f N o n - U t i l i t y A s s e t s 1 , 0 1 9 1 4 6 0 5 , 8 4 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ot h e r 1 0 8 , 3 3 7 ( 2 3 , 0 7 9 ) 1 9 , 7 6 1 4 3 , 1 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ne t I n v e s t i n g C a s h F l o w ($ 8 8 , 9 5 0 ) ( $ 2 5 3 , 0 4 0 ) ( $ 2 6 7 , 1 1 0 ) ( $ 2 0 2 , 8 2 4 ) ( $ 2 8 9 , 5 0 0 ) ( $ 3 7 2 , 0 0 0 ) ( $ 3 7 3 , 6 0 0 ) ( $ 3 8 9 , 2 6 3 ) ( $ 4 7 6 , 9 9 1 ) ( $ 4 7 9 , 2 8 6 ) ( $ 3 0 6 , 6 4 9 ) Fi n a n c i n g C a s h F l o w Is s u a n c e o f L T D e b t $ 6 4 , 9 9 2 $ 1 1 6 , 3 0 0 $ 2 4 0 , 0 0 0 $ 1 2 0 , 0 0 0 $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 $ 1 4 0 , 0 0 0 $ 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 $ 2 7 0 , 0 0 0 $ 2 4 0 , 0 0 0 $ 2 2 0 , 0 0 0 $ 8 5 , 0 0 0 Is s u a n c e o f T e r m L o a n s $ 1 7 0 , 0 0 0 ( $ 1 7 0 , 0 0 0 ) $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 Re t i r e m e n t o f L T D e b t ( 8 3 , 0 6 7 ) ( 1 3 2 , 6 4 2 ) ( 9 5 , 0 3 3 ) ( 1 1 , 3 4 9 ) ( 8 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 1 2 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 1 0 1 , 0 6 4 ) ( 7 1 , 0 6 1 ) 0 0 Pu r c h a s e o f P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l B o n d s ( 1 6 6 , 1 0 0 ) 1 6 6 , 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Re t i r e m e n t o f P r e f e r r e d S t o c k o f I D P o w e r 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Di v i d e n d s o n C o m m o n S t o c k ( 5 0 , 6 9 0 ) ( 5 1 , 2 7 2 ) ( 5 3 , 0 1 2 ) ( 5 4 , 2 3 9 ) ( 5 7 , 2 7 9 ) ( 6 2 , 1 1 1 ) ( 6 8 , 5 3 2 ) ( 7 5 , 4 2 9 ) ( 8 5 , 2 9 2 ) ( 9 6 , 0 3 6 ) ( 1 0 4 , 9 6 5 ) ST D e b t 2 3 , 8 3 0 6 8 , 9 0 0 5 7 , 4 4 5 ( 3 9 , 0 9 5 ) 2 0 , 0 0 0 0 5 , 0 0 0 2 5 , 0 0 0 ( 4 0 , 0 0 0 ) 1 0 , 0 0 0 ( 1 5 , 0 0 0 ) Co m m o n S t o c k I s s u e d 6 , 2 9 6 4 1 , 4 6 5 3 7 , 1 8 1 5 0 , 8 6 3 4 5 , 0 0 0 4 5 , 0 0 0 1 1 0 , 0 0 0 5 0 , 0 0 0 1 6 5 , 0 0 0 5 0 , 0 0 0 5 0 , 0 0 0 Ac q u i s i t i o n o f T r e a s u r y S h a r e s 0 ( 2 1 3 ) ( 3 4 6 ) ( 3 0 4 ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ot h e r ( 4 , 9 5 4 ) ( 1 , 7 4 0 ) ( 1 , 6 5 2 ) ( 2 , 6 0 3 ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ne t F i n a n c i n g C a s h F l o w ($ 4 3 , 5 9 3 ) $ 4 0 , 7 9 8 $ 1 8 4 , 5 8 3 $ 6 7 , 1 7 3 $ 2 2 , 7 5 7 $ 1 2 1 , 8 2 5 $ 1 7 5 , 4 0 4 $ 1 6 8 , 5 0 7 $ 2 0 8 , 6 4 7 $ 1 8 3 , 9 6 4 $ 1 5 , 0 3 5 Ne t C h a n g e i n C a s h $ 2 8 , 9 5 3 ( $ 4 2 , 4 6 4 ) ( $ 1 , 9 2 6 ) $ 8 6 2 ( $ 3 , 3 1 9 ) ( $ 7 1 1 ) $ 1 9 , 0 2 7 ( $ 2 , 3 1 5 ) ( $ 3 , 4 7 4 ) ( $ 2 , 3 6 1 ) $ 1 , 4 9 9 Ca s h a t b e g i n n i n g o f p e r i o d 2 3 , 4 0 3 5 2 , 3 5 6 9 , 8 9 2 7 , 9 6 6 8 , 8 2 8 5 , 5 0 9 4 , 7 9 8 2 3 , 8 2 5 2 1 , 5 0 9 1 8 , 0 3 5 1 5 , 6 7 4 Ca s h a t e n d o f p e r i o d $ 5 2 , 3 5 6 $ 9 , 8 9 2 $ 7 , 9 6 6 $ 8 , 8 2 8 $ 5 , 5 0 9 $ 4 , 7 9 8 $ 2 3 , 8 2 5 $ 2 1 , 5 0 9 $ 1 8 , 0 3 5 $ 1 5 , 6 7 4 $ 1 7 , 1 7 3 Ca p i t a l S t r u c t u r e 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 E 2 0 1 0 E 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 3 E 2 0 1 4 E 2 0 1 5 E Co m m o n E q u i t y $1 , 0 2 5 , 2 5 1 $ 1 , 1 2 4 , 1 8 3 $ 1 , 2 0 7 , 3 1 5 $ 1 , 3 0 2 , 4 3 7 $ 1 , 4 0 5 , 0 1 4 $ 1 , 5 1 1 , 6 7 4 $ 1 , 6 9 0 , 8 4 3 $ 1 , 8 1 5 , 2 2 3 $ 2 , 0 5 6 , 2 9 2 $ 2 , 1 8 8 , 7 3 4 $ 2 , 3 2 5 , 7 7 6 Lo n g - T e r m D e b t 1, 0 2 3 , 5 8 0 9 2 8 , 6 4 8 1 , 1 5 6 , 8 8 0 1 , 1 8 3 , 4 5 1 1 , 1 9 8 , 4 8 7 1 , 3 3 7 , 4 2 3 1 , 4 6 6 , 3 5 9 1 , 6 3 5 , 2 9 5 1 , 8 0 4 , 2 3 4 2 , 0 2 4 , 2 3 4 2 , 1 0 9 , 2 3 4 Sh o r t - T e r m D e b t 76 , 4 0 7 22 4 , 1 2 5 19 7 , 9 0 1 23 7 , 7 7 8 25 7 , 7 7 8 25 7 , 7 7 8 26 2 , 7 7 8 28 7 , 7 7 8 24 7 , 7 7 8 25 7 , 7 7 8 24 2 , 7 7 8 To t a l C a p i t a l i z a t i o n $ 2 , 1 2 5 , 2 3 8 $ 2 , 2 7 6 , 9 5 6 $ 2 , 5 6 2 , 0 9 6 $ 2 , 7 2 3 , 6 6 6 $ 2 , 8 6 1 , 2 7 9 $ 3 , 1 0 6 , 8 7 5 $ 3 , 4 1 9 , 9 8 0 $ 3 , 7 3 8 , 2 9 6 $ 4 , 1 0 8 , 3 0 4 $ 4 , 4 7 0 , 7 4 6 $ 4 , 6 7 7 , 78 8 % E q u i t y 48 4 9 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 5 0 4 9 5 0 % L o n g - T e r m D e b t 48 4 1 4 5 4 3 4 2 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 % S h o r t - T e r m D e b t 4 1 0 8 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 So u r c e : W e l l s F a r g o S e c u r i t i e s , L L C e s t i m a t e s a n d c o m p a n y f i l i n g s WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC IDACORP, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 7 Required Disclosures $18.00 $20.00 $22.00 $24.00 $26.00 $28.00 $30.00 $32.00 $34.00 $36.00 $38.00 $40.00 $42.00 $44.00 $46.00 11 / 7 / 0 6 12 / 5 / 0 6 1/2 / 0 7 1/3 0 / 0 7 2/2 7 / 0 7 3/2 7 / 0 7 4/2 4 / 0 7 5/2 2 / 0 7 6/1 9 / 0 7 7/1 7 / 0 7 8/1 4 / 0 7 9/1 1 / 0 7 10 / 9 / 0 7 11 / 6 / 0 7 12 / 4 / 0 7 1/1 / 0 8 1/2 9 / 0 8 2/2 6 / 0 8 3/2 5 / 0 8 4/2 2 / 0 8 5/2 0 / 0 8 6/1 7 / 0 8 7/1 5 / 0 8 8/1 2 / 0 8 9/9 / 0 8 10 / 7 / 0 8 11 / 4 / 0 8 12 / 2 / 0 8 12 / 3 0 / 0 8 1/2 7 / 0 9 2/2 4 / 0 9 3/2 4 / 0 9 4/2 1 / 0 9 5/1 9 / 0 9 6/1 6 / 0 9 7/1 4 / 0 9 8/1 1 / 0 9 9/8 / 0 9 10 / 6 / 0 9 11 / 3 / 0 9 Se c u r i t y P r i c e IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) 3-yr. Price PerformanceIDACORP, Inc. (IDA) 3-yr. Price Performance Date Date Publication Price ($) Rating Code Val. Rng. Low Val. Rng. High Close Price ($) 11/7/2006 Brothwell 11/7/2006 NA 2 35.00 38.00 38.75 z 1/19/2007 NA 2 34.00 37.00 37.22 dz 2/16/2007 NA 3 31.00 33.00 35.60 z 5/10/2007 NA 3 30.00 33.00 32.84 z 6/11/2007 NA 3 30.00 32.00 31.78 z 8/9/2007 NA 3 32.00 34.00 34.77 c 8/30/2007 32.29 2 32.00 34.00 32.52 z 11/1/2007 34.89 2 33.00 35.00 33.70 „ 11/14/2007 Kalton z 11/14/2007 33.79 2 34.00 35.00 33.85 z 2/15/2008 32.04 2 31.00 33.00 31.46 z 12/18/2008 29.19 2 30.00 32.00 29.24 z 2/19/2009 24.39 2 26.00 27.00 24.39 z 8/6/2009 27.79 2 27.00 29.00 27.79 z 9/10/2009 28.37 2 29.00 30.00 28.37 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Reuters data Symbol Key Rating Code Key d Rating Downgrade ‹ Initiation, Resumption, Drop or Suspend 1 Outperform/Buy SR Suspended c Rating Upgrade „ Analyst Change 2 Market Perform/Hold NR Not Rated z Valuation Range Change ˆ Split Adjustment 3 Underperform/Sell NE No Estimate Additional Information Available Upon Request I certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates managed or comanaged a public offering of securities for IDACORP, Inc. within the past 12 months. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from IDACORP, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. in the past 12 months. ƒ IDACORP, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided investment banking services to IDACORP, Inc. ƒ IDACORP, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided noninvestment banking securities-related services to IDACORP, Inc. ƒ Wells Fargo Securities, LLC received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Utilities EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT 8 IDACORP, Inc. in the past 12 months. Risks to our valuation include project delays or cancellations and consistently below average hydroelectric conditions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. STOCK RATING 1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months. BUY 2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12 months. HOLD 3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL SECTOR RATING O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. 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