HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDA032009.pdf
Please refer to pages 7-8 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information.
Institutional Equity Research
IDACORP, INC.
March 23, 2009 IDA – NYSE
Rating:
NEUTRAL ↓
Price: (3/20/09) $23.77
Price Targets:
12-18 month: $24 ↓
5-year: $35
Industry:
Utilities
James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA
406.791.7230
jbellessa@dadco.com
Company Description:
Boise, ID -- IDACORP, Inc. is the holding
company for the Idaho Power Company, an
electric public utility that serves an
approximate 24,000 square mile area in
Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Non-
regulated subsidiaries include an affordable
housing project finance company and an
operator of small hydroelectric generation
projects.
FY (Dec) 2008A 2009E Y-O-Y
Growth 2010E Y-O-Y
Growth
Revenue ($M) $960.4 $1,040.6 8% $1,074.5 3%
Previous - $1,036.1 $1,073.0
Price/Revenue ratio 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x
EPS Revised $2.17 $2.32 7% $2.39 3%
Previous - $2.28 $2.37
Price/EPS ratio 10.9x 10.3x 9.9x
EBITDA ($M) $325.0 $356.5 10% $375.9 5%
EV/EBITDA ratio 7.8x 7.1x 6.7x
Quarterly Data: EPS EPS Revenue Revenue EBITDA
Previous ($M) Previous ($M)
3/31/09E $0.48 NC $232.1 NC $81.7
6/30/09E $0.46 $0.45 $254.8 $253.6 $81.0
9/30/09E $1.11 $1.09 $314.7 $313.0 $123.3
12/31/09E $0.28 $0.26 $238.9 $237.4 $70.4
Valuation Data Trading Data
Long-term growth rate (E) 5% Shares outstanding (M) 46.9
Total Debt/Cap (12/31/08) 52.2% Market Capitalization ($M) $1,115
Cash per share (12/31/08) $0.19 52-week range $20.91 - $33.89
Book value per share (12/31/08) $27.76 Average daily volume (3 mos.) (K) 644
Dividend (yield) $1.20 (5.0%) Float 97%
Return on Equity (T-T-M) 8% Index Membership S&P 400 MidCap
Raising Estimates on Rate Relief News, but Downgrading to NEUTRAL.
• Request for reconsideration granted. On March 19, 2009, the Idaho Public
Utilities Commission (IPUC) granted a portion of Idaho Power’s Petition for
Reconsideration and Clarification to correct errors and to clarify the IPUC’s
general rate case order issued on January 30, 2009. The IPUC fully accepted one
of the four issues identified by the utility for reconsideration, and made other
small adjustments which added $6.1 million to the company’s revenue
requirement. (Idaho Power had asked for $8.1 million of corrections and
adjustments.) With these changes, the company’s annual revenue requirement
was increased from the previously ordered $20.9 million to $27.0 million.
• Streamflow outlook improves but remains subpar. On March 19, 2009, the
Northwest River Forecast Center raised its estimates for the April through July
inflows into the Brownlee Reservoir to 3.67 million acre-feet (MAF) from a
forecast of 3.35 MAF on March 6, 2009. The new estimate is 58% of normal and
84% of last year’s runoff.
• Raising EPS estimates. We are increasing our 2009 and 2010 revenue estimates
by $4.5 million and $1.5 million, respectively, to adjust for the additional rate
relief granted. Accordingly, our 2009 EPS forecast increases from $2.28 to $2.32
and our 2010 EPS estimate increases from $2.37 to $2.39.
• Lowering target and rating. To reflect further compression in the valuations
within the utility sector, we are reducing our 12-18 month target price from $28
to $24, or ~10x our revised 2010 EPS estimate. We believe the shares are fairly
priced for the near term and are downgrading our rating from Buy to
NEUTRAL.
D.A. Davidson & Co.
2
Price Chart
Source: Thomson One
D.A. Davidson & Co.
3
REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS
On March 6, 2009 Idaho Power filed an application with the IPUC for a certificate of public
convenience and necessity which would authorize the utility to construct a 330 MW natural
gas-fired combined cycle combustion turbine in Payette County, Idaho. The estimated cost of
the proposed facility is $427.4 million, and was not included in the utility’s 2009-2011 capital
expenditures budget of $780-$800 million (this capex budget does include expenditures for
the siting and permitting of several major transmission projects). Also included in Idaho
Power’s application is a request to include construction work in progress (CWIP) in rate base
for all or a portion of the construction expenditures. If the application is approved by the
IPUC, Idaho Power expects to spend $45-$50 million on the project during 2009. Idaho
Power entered into equipment supply contracts for the project with Siemens Energy in
December 2008 and February 2009 for a gas turbine and a steam turbine, including an
$8.7 million deposit. The contract does not call for any additional payments before
September 2009. The IPUC decision is expected to come forth in the third quarter of 2009. If
the regulatory go-ahead is given, and other approvals are obtained, the utility expects to start
construction in the summer of 2010, with completion by year-end 2012.
On March 13, 2009 Idaho Power requested a $5.2 million rate increase under the fixed cost
adjustment mechanism (FCA) pilot program for its residential and small general service
customers approved in March 2007. The FCA is a rate decoupling mechanism designed to
remove the utility’s disincentive to invest in energy efficiency programs by linking revenues
instead to a set amount per customer. The FCA tracks the difference between Idaho Power’s
revenue requirement established in a general rate case and the amount of fixed costs actually
recovered. The amount of over- or under-recovery is then returned to or collected from
customers in a subsequent rate adjustment. The pilot program began on January 1, 2007 and
runs through 2009, with rate adjustments effective June 1st of each year during its term. If
approved, the rate increase would go into effect on June 1, 2009.
On March 13, 2009, Idaho Power filed an application with the IPUC requesting a
$15.6 million increase to its Energy Efficiency Rider (EER), the chief funding mechanism for
its investment in conservation, energy efficiency and demand response programs. The utility
is proposing an increase from 2.5% to 4.75% of base revenues and the change would go into
effect on June 1, 2009.
On March 13, 2009, Idaho Power filed an application with the IPUC to increase its revenue
requirement by $11.2 million (+1.61%) for residential, small commercial, irrigation, and
metered lighting customer classes for the installation of Advanced Metering Infrastructure
(AMI) technology throughout its service territory from January 2009 through May 2010.
Approximately two-thirds of the AMI costs are included in the company’s 2008-2010 capital
expenditure guidance. Idaho Power requested that the rate increase go into effect on June 1,
2009.
Proposed Langley Gulch Facility
March 2009 FCA Rate Request
Idaho Energy Efficiency Rider
Advanced Metering Infrastructure
D.A. Davidson & Co.
4
REGULATORY RATE CASE SUMMARY/STATUS
Revenue
Increase
Average Rate
Base
Return on
Equity
Return on
Rate Base Equity Ratio
Application, June 2008 $66.6 (+9.9%) $2,100 11.25% 8.18% 49.27%
Approved, January 2009 $20.9 (+3.1%) $2,100 10.5% 8.18% 49.27%
Revised, March 2009 $27.0 (+4.0%) $2,100 10.5% 8.18% 49.27%
FERC Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) Case2
Application, March 2006 $11.0 11.25%
Calculation Change Approved, June 2006 $11.0 11.25%
Stipulation, August 2007 $8.2 10.7%
ALJ Initial Decision, August 2007 $6.8 10.7%
Revised/Appealed, January 2009 $6.8 10.7%
Application, June 2007 $64 (+10.35%) 11.5% 8.10%
Approved, February 2008 $32.1 (+5.2%)
2 The new OATT calculation allowed the utility to move from a fixed rate to a formula rate which would be updated annually. The Administrative Law Judge's
(ALJ) initial decision required refunds of $5.4 million. On appeal, the ALJ’s initial decision was upheld in most respects and Idaho Power was required to
reduce its rates to FERC jurisdictional customers and refund $13.3 million to these customers for the period since the new rates went into effect in June 2006.
The utility has filed a request for rehearing with the FERC.
3 The 2007 Idaho general rate case was a decided under a "black box" settlement agreement. Therefore, no data is given for line items including allowed ROE,
rate base, etc.
Notes to Rate Case Summary
1 The load growth adjustment rate has been lowered from $28.14/MWh to an estimated $26.63/MWh; a new residential tiering rate schedule was enacted; and
ongoing finance costs of $6.8 million (allowance for funds used during construction) for the relicensing of the Hells Canyon Project were allowed in rate base for
the first time since the company’s relicensing efforts started ten years ago, in order to support cash flows for the utility’s credit rating purposes (but not profits),
even though the company’s relicensing efforts are still ongoing.
($ in millions)
2008 Idaho General Rate Case 1
2007 Idaho General Rate Case 3
Source: Company Reports and Regulatory Filings
D.A. Davidson & Co.
5
IDACORP, Inc. Balance Sheet
$ thousands -- Fiscal year ends 12/31
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ASSETS:
Electric Plant:
In service (at original cost) $3,220,228 $3,324,816 $3,477,067 $3,583,694 $3,796,339 $4,030,134
Accumulated provision for depreciation (1,239,604)(1,316,125)(1,364,640)(1,406,210)(1,468,832)(1,505,120)
In service - net 1,980,624 2,008,691 2,112,427 2,177,484 2,327,507 2,525,014 Construction work in progress 96,091 152,427 149,814 210,094 257,590 207,662
Held for future use 2,438 2,636 2,906 2,810 3,366 6,318
Other propert , net of accum. Depreciatio 9,166 45,708 29,294 28,692 28,089 19,171
Property, plant and equipment - net 2,088,319 2,209,462 2,294,441 2,419,080 2,616,552 2,758,165
Investments And Other Property 204,474 223,061 191,593 202,825 201,085 198,552
Current Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 75,159 23,403 52,356 9,892 7,966 8,828
Receivables:
Customer 93,599 92,258 94,469 62,131 69,160 64,733 Gas operations
Allowance for uncollectible accounts (43,210) (43,108) (33,078) (7,168) (7,505) (1,724)
Notes
Employee notes receivable 3,347 3,523 2,951 2,569 2,128 179 Other 8,209 8,806 21,377 11,855 10,957 10,260
Total Receivables
Energy marketing assets 4,176 9,203 23,859 12,069
Derivative assets Taxes receivable 18,111
Accrued unbilled revenues 30,869 33,832 38,905 31,365 36,314 43,934
Materials and supplies (at avg. cost) 21,351 28,008 30,451 39,079 43,270 50,121
Fuel stock (at average cost)6,228 6,539 11,739 15,174 17,268 16,852 Prepayments 27,779 30,035 17,876 9,308 9,371 10,059
Regulatory assets associated with taxes 4,382 23,407 23,922 28,035 25,672 37,550
Regulatory assets -- derivatives 6,269 5,510 3,064
Refundable income tax deposit 44,903 46,083
Other current assets 2,956 3,993 6,023 7,381
Assets held for sale 6,673 3,326
Total current assets 238,158 221,416 297,520 266,531 266,707 266,284
Other Assets:
American Falls and Milner water rights 31,585 31,585 31,585 30,543 29,501 26,332
Company-owned life insurance 35,624 35,765 35,401 34,055 30,842 29,482Energy marketing assets -- long-term 14,358 16,635 22,189
Regulatory assets associated with taxes 427,760 433,271 415,177 423,548 449,668 696,332
Regulatory asset - PCA
Regulatory assets - long-term derivatives
Regulatory assets - other
Long-term receivables 3,106 2,895 4,015 3,802 3,583 4,012
Other 62,724 60,082 46,239 43,670 55,370 43,686
Assets held for sale 25,966 21,076
Total other assets 575,157 580,233 580,572 556,694 568,964 799,844
TOTAL ASSETS $3,106,108 $3,234,172 $3,364,126 $3,445,130 $3,653,308 $4,022,845
CAPITALIZATION AND LIABILITIES:
Capitalization:
Common stock equity Common stock $472,902 $589,440 $598,706 $638,799 $675,774 $729,576
Retained earnings 397,167 424,312 437,284 493,363 537,699 581,605
Other comprehensive income (2,630) (888) (3,425) (5,737) (6,156) (8,707) Treasury stock (3,158) (4,578) (998) (2,242) (2) (37) Unearned compensation (6,316)
Total common stock equity 864,281 1,008,286 1,025,251 1,124,183 1,207,315 1,302,437
Preferred stock 52,366 Long-term debt 945,834 979,549 1,023,545 928,648 1,156,880 1,183,451
Total capitalization 1,862,481 1,987,835 2,048,796 2,052,831 2,364,195 2,485,888
Current Liabilities: Long-term debt due within one year 67,923 78,603 16,307 95,125 11,456 86,528
Notes payable 93,650 36,270 60,100 129,000 186,445 151,250
Accounts payable 60,916 79,156 80,324 86,440 85,116 96,785
Energy marketing liabilities 4,317 9,420 24,093 13,532 Derivative liabilities
Taxes accured 45,601 46,318 72,652 47,402 8,492
Interest accrued 13,741 14,426 14,616 12,657 18,913 16,727
Deferred income taxes
Uncertain tax positions 26,764 4,119
Other 25,557 21,265 19,577 23,572 38,129 40,259
Liabilities held for sale 5,916 2,606 Total current liabilities 311,705 285,458 293,585 410,334 375,315 395,668
Other Liabilities:
Regulatory liabilities associated with
deferred investment tax credits
Energy marketing liabilities -- long-term 14,393 16,635 22,189
Derivative liabilities -- long-term
Deferred income taxes 554,715 555,774 519,563 498,512 466,182 515,719Reulator liabilities associated with
income taxes
Regulatory liabilities - PCA
Regulatory liabilities - other 258,524 275,854 345,109 294,844 274,204 276,266 Other 104,290 112,616 124,833 179,836 173,412 349,304
Liabilities held for sale 10,051 8,773
Total other liabilities 931,922 960,879 1,021,745 981,965 913,798 1,141,289
TOTAL CAPITALIZATION AND
LIABILITIES $3,106,108 $3,234,172 $3,364,126 $3,445,130 $3,653,308 $4,022,845
Shares Outstanding (000's)38,207 42,217 42,632 43,834 45,063 46,920
Book Value per Share $22.62 $23.88 $24.05 $25.65 $26.79 $27.76
D.A. Davidson & Co.
6
IDACORP, Inc. Consolidated Statements of Income
$ thousands -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09E 2Q09E 3Q'09E 4Q'09E 2009E 2010E
REVENUES:
Electric Utility:
General business $668,303 $167,313 $188,748 $246,639 $181,611 $784,311 $181,312 $203,920 $264,057 $193,573 $842,862 $865,273
Off system sales 154,948 33,363 25,641 34,637 27,789 121,430 37,823 37,903 37,678 32,305 145,710 155,723
Other revenues 52,150 12,120 14,556 16,831 6,828 50,335 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 48,800 50,000
Total Electric Utility Revenues 875,401 212,796 228,945 298,107 216,228 956,076 231,335 254,023 313,935 238,078 1,037,372 1,070,997
Diversified Operations:
Other 3,993 644 1,281 1,609 804 4,338 800 800 800 800 3,200 3,500
Total Revenues 879,393 213,440 230,226 299,716 217,032 960,414 232,135 254,823 314,735 238,878 1,040,572 1,074,497
EXPENSES:
Electric Utility:
Purchased power 289,484 45,299 50,089 79,513 56,237 231,138 48,838 61,261 81,799 57,080 248,977 259,098
Fuel expense 134,322 37,237 28,681 46,467 37,018 149,403 38,170 34,293 43,951 40,473 156,888 160,649
Power cost adjustment (121,131)(17,744)(829)(20,105)(8,735)(47,413)(8,000)0 (9,000)(2,000)(19,000)(21,000)
Total Power Supply 302,675 64,792 77,941 105,875 84,520 333,128 79,008 95,554 116,750 95,553 386,865 398,747
Impairment of assets
Other Operations and Maintenance 286,510 68,927 75,617 74,778 74,708 294,030 69,401 76,207 72,519 70,709 288,836 294,524
Demand-side management 13,487 3,364 3,928 5,956 5,631 18,879 5,700 5,800 5,900 6,000 23,400 24,000
Gain on sale of emission allowances (2,754)(346) (158)(504) 0 0
Depreciation 103,072 25,750 26,617 25,717 24,001 102,085 24,250 24,500 24,750 25,000 98,500 102,000
Taxes other than income taxes 17,634 4,803 4,800 4,827 4,653 19,083 5,089 5,080 5,023 5,000 20,192 20,349
Total Electric Utility Expenses 720,624 167,636 188,557 216,995 193,513 766,701 183,448 207,142 224,942 202,262 817,793 839,620
Other: 6,692 1,048 1,140 1,144 (286)3,046 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 4,800 5,000
Total Operating Expenses 727,316 168,684 189,697 218,139 193,227 769,747 184,648 208,342 226,142 203,462 822,593 844,620
OPERATING INCOME
Electric Utility 154,777 45,160 40,388 81,112 22,715 189,375 47,887 46,882 88,994 35,816 219,579 231,376
Other Diversified Operations (2,699)(404)141 465 1,090 1,292 (400)(400)(400)(400)(1,600)(1,500)
Equity in Earnings of Partnerships
Operating Income 152,078 44,756 40,529 81,577 23,805 190,667 47,487 46,482 88,594 35,416 217,979 229,876
TOTAL OTHER INCOME: 20,524 4,417 6,082 4,629 (3,267)11,861 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 20,000 21,000
Earnings of Uncons. Eq-method Inv. (4,824)(4,036) (3,278) 2,642 675 (3,997)(1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)(4,000) (4,400)
TOTAL OTHER EXPENSES: 8,434 365 1,820 2,764 2,912 7,861 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 8,000 8,200
INTEREST EXPENSE AND OTHER:
Interest on long-term debt 59,961 16,876 15,744 17,226 17,404 67,250 17,450 17,500 17,550 17,600 70,100 72,500
Other interest 3,380 596 1,313 1,310 2,587 5,806 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 8,000 8,000
Net interest charges 63,341 17,472 17,057 18,536 19,991 73,056 19,450 19,500 19,550 19,600 78,100 80,500
Dividends on preferred stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total interest expense and other 63,341 17,472 17,057 18,536 19,991 73,056 19,450 19,500 19,550 19,600 78,100 80,500
INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES: 96,003 27,300 24,456 67,548 (1,690)117,614 30,037 28,982 71,044 17,816 147,879 157,776
INCOME TAXES: 13,731 5,584 6,941 15,809 (9,134)19,200 7,810 7,535 18,471 4,632 38,449 41,022
Income from Continuing Operations 82,272 21,716 17,515 51,739 7,444 98,414 22,227 21,447 52,572 13,184 109,430 116,754
Losses from Disc. Ops. (net of tax) 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Income Available for Common 82,339 21,716 17,515 51,739 7,444 98,414 22,227 21,447 52,572 13,184 109,430 116,754
Earnings per share from cont. ops.$1.86 $0.48 $0.39 $1.14 $0.16 $2.17 $0.48 $0.46 $1.11 $0.28 $2.32 $2.39
Losses from Discontinued Operations $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
EPS $1.86 $0.48 $0.39 $1.14 $0.16 $2.17 $0.48 $0.46 $1.11 $0.28 $2.32 $2.39
Dividends paid per share of common stock $1.20 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $1.20 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $1.20 $1.20
Avg. common shares outstanding (000)44,291 45,004 45,096 45,194 46,027 45,330 46,627 47,027 47,427 47,827 47,227 48,827
Segment breakdown of EPS
Idaho Power Company $1.73 $0.47 $0.39 $1.05 $0.17 $2.08 $0.47 $0.44 $1.10 $0.27 $2.28 $2.35
IDACORP Energy ($0.00)(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)($0.00)
Ida-West Energy $0.05 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.00 $0.05
IDACORP Financial $0.16 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 $0.08
Holding Company ($0.08)(0.01)(0.04)0.05 (0.03)($0.03)
EPS from Continuing Operations $1.86 $0.48 $0.39 $1.14 $0.16 $2.17 $0.48 $0.46 $1.11 $0.28 $2.32 $2.39
D.A. Davidson & Co.
Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com
Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2009. All rights reserved.
7
Required Disclosures
D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the
next three months.
D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. James L.
Bellessa, Jr., CFA, the research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is
based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are
not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions.
I, James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about
the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Ratings Information
D.A. Davidson & Co. Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform
Risk adjusted return potential Over 15% total return
expected on a risk adjusted
basis over next 12-18 months
>0-15% return potential
on a risk adjusted basis
over next 12-18 months
Likely to remain flat or lose
value on a risk adjusted basis
over next 12-18 months
Distribution of Ratings (as of 12/31/08) Buy Hold Sell
Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform
and Distribution 48% 49% 3%
Corresponding Private Client Research Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform
and Distribution 95% 5% 0%
Distribution of Combined Ratings 52% 46% 2%
Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos.
Institutional Coverage 2% 3% 0%
Private Client Coverage 0% 0% 0%
Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 2% 3% 0%
D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform
D.A. Davidson & Co.
Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com
Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2009. All rights reserved.
8
Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based
upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria.
Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic
fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends.
Other Disclosures
Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any
action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original
publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent
in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also
remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee,
express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional
Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment
sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the
advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice
before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.