HomeMy WebLinkAbout3 07 2012 IDA 4Q11.pdf
Additional required disclosures under NASD Rule 2711 are provided on the last page of this document.
McAdams Wright Ragen ● 925 Fourth Avenue, Suite 3900 Seattle, WA 98104 888.567.6297 ● www.mwrinc.com Page 1 of 2
IDACORP reported Q4 EPS of $0.18 compared to our
implied $0.22 and last year’s $0.41 per share. Higher
operating costs dragged down results. For the full year, EPS
were $3.37 compared to $2.95 last year due primarily to
income tax benefits. On an operational basis, deliveries were
up for all customer classes, except irrigation, on much colder
than usual weather and revenues were up for residential and
commercial customers.
IDACORP increased its dividend to $0.33 per quarter
from $0.30 in February. The increase was anticipated
based on the company’s Q3 earnings discussion. The long-
term target payout ratio is 50%–60%. EPS guidance of
$3.00–$3.15 for 2012 was established.
We are leaving our 2012 EPS estimate of $3.00
unchanged and introducing a 2013 estimate of $3.10.
We are increasing our multiple to 12.5x from 12x based on
the extension of the use of the ADITC to provide a floor on
ROE through 2014. Based on our 2013 EPS estimate and
12.5x PE multiple, we are raising our fair value estimate to
$39 from $36. We are maintaining our Hold rating based on
current stock price levels, but would be very interested in
adding to positions in the low $30-range.
Risks: rate case uncertainty, rising interest rates, natural gas
price volatility and poor hydrogeneration conditions.
March 7, 2012
2011 Results Boosted by Tax Settlement;
Raising Price Target but Maintaining Hold
IDACORP, Inc. (IDA)
$39.70 | HOLD
Price Target $39
52-Week High $42.89
52-Week Low $33.88
Shares Out (Mil) 49.95
Market Cap (Mil) $1,983
Avg Daily Vol (000s) 267.9
Dividend / Yield $1.32 / 3.3%
3–5 yr. EPS Growth 5%
Fiscal Year End December
ANNUAL EPS EST. ($)
FY11A FY12E FY13E
FY 3.37 3.00 3.10
P/E 11.8x 13.2x 12.8x
Company Description:
IDACORP provides electric service to retail
customers in Idaho and Oregon through its
Idaho Power Company subsidiary, which
comprises more than 95% of earnings, and
invests in housing and other real estate
properties through its other subsidiaries.
The company was founded in 1915 and is
based in Boise, Idaho.
Jennifer Sireklove, CFA
jsireklove@mwrinc.com
206.664.8875
Northwest Coverag
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Source: FactSet Prices
Idacorp (IDA) 3-year Price History
06-Mar-2009 to 06-Mar-2012 (Daily)
Additional required disclosures under NASD Rule 2711 are provided on the last page of this document.
McAdams Wright Ragen ● 925 Fourth Avenue, Suite 3900 Seattle, WA 98104 888.567.6297 ● www.mwrinc.com Page 2 of 2
Required Disclosures, as of December 31, 2011:
Jennifer Sireklove, CFA, jsireklove@mwrinc.com, 206.664.8875
I, Jennifer Sireklove, hereby certify (1) that the views in this research note accurately reflect my personal views about any or all
of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this note.
% of rated stocks currently
assigned the following rating
% of rated stocks to whom MWR provided investment
banking services within the previous 12 months
BUY 36% 0%
HOLD 52% 0%
SELL 12% 0%
The firm may receive and intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next
three months.
Price targets are subject to change as new information becomes available, and reflect our current judgment regarding this
security. Note that there are risks that may impede the achievement of a predicted price target. Price targets are based on
fundamental factors such as historical and projected earnings, cash flow, discounted cash flow, relative book value, peer group
evaluation, relative sector valuations, and expectations on general market and economic conditions.
McAdams Wright Ragen employs a Ratings System (in effect since 12/20/2011) defined as follows:
Buy: We expect the Stock to Outperform the Market
Hold: We expect the Stock to be a Market Performer
Sell: We expect the Stock to Underperform the Market
Ratings System in effect between 6/12/2002 and 12/20/2011:
Buy/Addition to MWR Focus List: We expect the Stock to Outperform the Market. Hold: We expect the Stock to be a Market Performer.
Sell/Removal from MWR Focus List: We expect the Stock to Underperform the Market.
Ratings System in effect between 2/7/2002 and 6/12/2002 : Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell.
Ratings System in effect prior to 2/7/2002: Buy, Moderate Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell
Other disclosures: This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The
opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from
sources we consider reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. Our firm, or its officers, research personnel, other
employees or customers may have long or short positions in the securities or options of the recommended issuers, may buy and
sell the securities or options, may serve as an officer or director of any company mentioned, prior to or at the time of publication
of the report or thereafter.
For additional price Chart and Ratings History disclosures, or to request information, please contact MWR’s Research Department at
(206) 664-8856, research@mwrinc.com.
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Initiation at HOLD
PT: $36 May 24
Source: FactSet Prices
Idacorp (IDA) 3-year Price History Chart
31-Dec-2008 to 30-Dec-2011 (Daily) Price (USD)