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HomeMy WebLinkAbout3 07 2012 IDA 4Q11.pdf Additional required disclosures under NASD Rule 2711 are provided on the last page of this document. McAdams Wright Ragen ● 925 Fourth Avenue, Suite 3900 Seattle, WA 98104 888.567.6297 ● www.mwrinc.com Page 1 of 2  IDACORP reported Q4 EPS of $0.18 compared to our implied $0.22 and last year’s $0.41 per share. Higher operating costs dragged down results. For the full year, EPS were $3.37 compared to $2.95 last year due primarily to income tax benefits. On an operational basis, deliveries were up for all customer classes, except irrigation, on much colder than usual weather and revenues were up for residential and commercial customers.  IDACORP increased its dividend to $0.33 per quarter from $0.30 in February. The increase was anticipated based on the company’s Q3 earnings discussion. The long- term target payout ratio is 50%–60%. EPS guidance of $3.00–$3.15 for 2012 was established.  We are leaving our 2012 EPS estimate of $3.00 unchanged and introducing a 2013 estimate of $3.10. We are increasing our multiple to 12.5x from 12x based on the extension of the use of the ADITC to provide a floor on ROE through 2014. Based on our 2013 EPS estimate and 12.5x PE multiple, we are raising our fair value estimate to $39 from $36. We are maintaining our Hold rating based on current stock price levels, but would be very interested in adding to positions in the low $30-range.  Risks: rate case uncertainty, rising interest rates, natural gas price volatility and poor hydrogeneration conditions. March 7, 2012 2011 Results Boosted by Tax Settlement; Raising Price Target but Maintaining Hold IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) $39.70 | HOLD Price Target $39 52-Week High $42.89 52-Week Low $33.88 Shares Out (Mil) 49.95 Market Cap (Mil) $1,983 Avg Daily Vol (000s) 267.9 Dividend / Yield $1.32 / 3.3% 3–5 yr. EPS Growth 5% Fiscal Year End December ANNUAL EPS EST. ($) FY11A FY12E FY13E FY 3.37 3.00 3.10 P/E 11.8x 13.2x 12.8x Company Description: IDACORP provides electric service to retail customers in Idaho and Oregon through its Idaho Power Company subsidiary, which comprises more than 95% of earnings, and invests in housing and other real estate properties through its other subsidiaries. The company was founded in 1915 and is based in Boise, Idaho. Jennifer Sireklove, CFA jsireklove@mwrinc.com 206.664.8875 Northwest Coverag 4/09 7/09 10/09 1/10 4/10 7/10 10/10 1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source: FactSet Prices Idacorp (IDA) 3-year Price History 06-Mar-2009 to 06-Mar-2012 (Daily) Additional required disclosures under NASD Rule 2711 are provided on the last page of this document. McAdams Wright Ragen ● 925 Fourth Avenue, Suite 3900 Seattle, WA 98104 888.567.6297 ● www.mwrinc.com Page 2 of 2 Required Disclosures, as of December 31, 2011: Jennifer Sireklove, CFA, jsireklove@mwrinc.com, 206.664.8875 I, Jennifer Sireklove, hereby certify (1) that the views in this research note accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this note. % of rated stocks currently  assigned the following rating  % of rated stocks to whom MWR provided investment  banking services within the previous 12 months  BUY 36% 0% HOLD 52% 0%  SELL 12% 0% The firm may receive and intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next three months. Price targets are subject to change as new information becomes available, and reflect our current judgment regarding this security. Note that there are risks that may impede the achievement of a predicted price target. Price targets are based on fundamental factors such as historical and projected earnings, cash flow, discounted cash flow, relative book value, peer group evaluation, relative sector valuations, and expectations on general market and economic conditions. McAdams Wright Ragen employs a Ratings System (in effect since 12/20/2011) defined as follows: Buy: We expect the Stock to Outperform the Market Hold: We expect the Stock to be a Market Performer Sell: We expect the Stock to Underperform the Market Ratings System in effect between 6/12/2002 and 12/20/2011: Buy/Addition to MWR Focus List: We expect the Stock to Outperform the Market. Hold: We expect the Stock to be a Market Performer. Sell/Removal from MWR Focus List: We expect the Stock to Underperform the Market. Ratings System in effect between 2/7/2002 and 6/12/2002 : Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell. Ratings System in effect prior to 2/7/2002: Buy, Moderate Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell Other disclosures: This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. Our firm, or its officers, research personnel, other employees or customers may have long or short positions in the securities or options of the recommended issuers, may buy and sell the securities or options, may serve as an officer or director of any company mentioned, prior to or at the time of publication of the report or thereafter. For additional price Chart and Ratings History disclosures, or to request information, please contact MWR’s Research Department at (206) 664-8856, research@mwrinc.com. 1/09 4/09 7/09 10/09 1/10 4/10 7/10 10/10 1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Initiation at HOLD PT: $36 May 24 Source: FactSet Prices Idacorp (IDA) 3-year Price History Chart 31-Dec-2008 to 30-Dec-2011 (Daily) Price (USD)