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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2011 IDANOTE082511.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY MELVILLE, NY PRINCETON, NJ MIAMI, FL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) Company Update – Reiterating BUY due to Attractive Valuation and Fundamentals Highlights • We are reiterating our BUY rating on IDA shares. Our price target of $42 per share implies a 2012/2013 P/E of 13.9x/13.3x our EPS estimates of $3.02/$3.15. Our 2011 EPS estimate is $2.92. • IDA shares currently trade at 11.8x our 2013 EPS estimate, a 10% discount relative to a regulated utility peer group average of 13.1x (regulated peer group defined as electric utilities with majority of operations regulated by the state/federal). Despite a below-average dividend yield and pending rate case risks we believe the discount is unwarranted. We expect a dividend increase in mid-2012 and we expect a balanced/constructive rate case outcome (settlement possible). Therefore, we reiterate our BUY rating and believe risk/reward is favorable. • We note the following: expectations for a dividend increase in mid-2012 (dividend payout ratio only 41%), potential settlement in pending general rate case (history of settlements in Idaho), pre-approved $397m Langley Gulch Power Plant supports near-term earnings growth (COD mid-2012), “reliability-driven” Boardman-Hemmingway transmission line supports longer-term earnings growth (COD 2016, $820m, IDA partial ownership expected), solid liquidity and disciplined balance sheet management (no meaningful external equity needed to finance Langley Gulch), positive load growth, rate mechanisms help mitigate IDA’s cash/earnings volatility (PCA, LGAR, FCA), unicap tax study pending approval ($65m benefit, 59.7m currently reserved). Lastly, the recently concluded/pending tax studies enhance the company’s liquidity position, reverse the need to utilize tax credits (ADITC), help support higher equity ratios, mitigate external equity needs, and help offset recovery of cost pressures in the current general rate case. • Our 2011 estimates exclude the impact uniform capitalization method change (“unicap”) announced during 3Q10 that would provide a +$65m income tax benefit (currently $59.7m reserved pending US Congress Joint Committee on Taxation approval likely in 2011, $5- $6m ongoing benefits). For modeling purposes, our 2012/2013 EPS estimates assume traditional cost-of-service rate making, although, we acknowledge that an extension of the current rate structure is possible. See Financial Summary on page 2. • Recall, on June 1, 2011, IDA filed for an $82.6m (+9.9%) increase in base rates (effective January 1, 2012) and supported by $2.4b of 13-month average rate base (2011 test year), ROE of 10.5%, and equity ratio of 51.2%. Average rate base excludes the $397m Langley Gulch Power plant currently under construction to be added to rate base in mid- 2012. Key dates include: settlement conference begins (August 31, 2011), Staff and Intervenor testimony (October 7, 2011). • Recall, per the January 2010 IPUC order, IDA can earn a minimum ROE of 9.5% (up to 10.5% with 50/50 sharing above 10.5%) and can utilize a specified amount of ADITC per year through 2011 to enhance its ROE based on year-end equity balance. New rates were effective June 1, 2010. The new rate structure allows IDA the opportunity to utilize Accumulated Deferred Investment Tax Credits (ADITC) to help achieve a minimum ROE of 9.5% on year-end equity balance in Idaho jurisdiction and is limited to $25m each year for 2010 and 2011, thereby, supporting earnings growth through 2011. IDA expects to utilize $13.5m in ADITC (previously $15m) during 2011. COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price (August 24, 2011) $37.11 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE11) $42.00 52 - Week Range $33.88-$40.71 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $1,822 Enterprise Value (mill) $2,445 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 49 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 218 Book Value per Share (2Q11A) $33.24 Dividend (FY11E) / Yield $1.20 3.2% FY2010A FY2011E FY2012E Revenue (mill) $1,036 $1,121 $1,223 1Q EPS $0.34 $0.60A 2Q EPS $0.82 $0.42A 3Q EPS $1.39 4Q EPS $0.41 EPS $2.95 $2.92 $3.02 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $2.92 $3.02 P/E 12.6x 12.7x 12.3x EV/EBITDA 8.4x 8.5x 8.3x P/FCF nm nm nm ESTIMATES Volum e in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 C los e $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Chart data: Bloomberg Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com Ira Reibeisen 212-409-2051 ireibeisen@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update August 25, 2011 BUY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 2 - Table 1: IDA – Financial Summary Year Ending 31 December 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E FINANCIAL SUMMARYEPS 2.1 2.64 2.95 2.9 3.02 3.15 P/E ratio 17.11 14.08 12.56 12.71 12.30 11.78EBITDAPS 6.45 6.66 6.51 6.14 7.71 8.04 P/EBITDAPS 5.75 5.57 5.70 6.05 4.81 4.62 Free CFPS -2.36 0.69 -0.68 -1.45 -1.22 2.62P/Free CFPS -15.73 53.89 -54.61 -25.68 -30.36 14.18 DPS 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.32 1.45 Dividend yield 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9%BV PS 28.80 29.71 31.77 33.24 35.03 36.73 P/BV PS 1.29 1.25 1.17 1.12 1.06 1.01 Dilluted Shares Out 45,379 47,182 48,340 48,940 49,540 49,540 Enterprise value 2,858,638 3,107,667 3,053,507 3,253,196 3,376,814 3,319,070 EV/Sales 2.98 2.96 2.95 2.90 2.76 2.63EV/EBITDA 9.76 9.89 9.71 10.83 8.84 8.34 EV/EBIT 15.01 14.15 14.08 16.06 12.45 11.87 INCOME STATEMENT (USDm)Revenues 960,414 1,049,800 1,036,029 1,120,689 1,222,574 1,259,641 Gross margin 190,667 203,583 198,670 180,851 259,086 271,479Operating EBITDA 292,753 314,209 314,591 300,250 382,066 398,149 Depreciation & Amortization 102,086 110,626 115,921 119,399 122,981 126,670 EBIT 190,501 219,547 216,843 202,595 271,279 279,672Interest expense 73,056 72,810 75,114 67,978 79,653 79,653 Net income 98,414 124,350 142,798 142,886 149,468 156,015 Net income per share 2.17 2.64 2.95 2.92 3.02 3.15CASH FLOW (USDm) Cash flow from operations 136,513 284,425 305,400 259,277 269,441 279,677 Cash flow from investing (202,824) (242,405) (328,334) (330,000) (330,000) (150,000)Capital expenditures 243,544 251,937 338,252 330,000 330,000 150,000 Cash flow from financing 67,173 2,139 198,624 (104,128) 59,207 (71,932) Common dividends (54,239) (56,820) (57,872) (58,728) (65,393) (71,932) Free cash flow (107,031) 32,488 (32,852) (70,723) (60,559) 129,677 BALANCE SHEET (USDm)Cash and marketable sec 8,828 52,987 228,677 53,826 52,474 110,219 Total assets 4,022,845 4,238,727 4,676,055 4,634,988 4,838,656 4,737,731 Total debt/lease 1,183,451 1,409,730 1,488,287 1,490,859 1,590,859 1,590,859 Total liabilities 2,715,974 2,905,637 3,140,071 3,020,071 3,120,071 3,120,071 Shareholders' equity 1,306,871 1,401,544 1,535,984 1,626,850 1,735,526 1,819,609 RATIO ANALYSIS Sales growth (%) 9.2% 9.3% -1.3% 8.2% 9.1% 3.0% Gross margin/sales (%) 19.9% 19.4% 19.2% 16.1% 21.2% 21.6%EBIT/Assets 4.7% 5.2% 4.6% 4.4% 5.6% 5.9% CFO/Assets 3.4% 6.7% 6.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.9% ROA 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% ROE 7.5% 8.9% 9.3% 8.8% 8.6% 8.6% Total debt/total capital 47.5% 50.1% 49.2% 47.8% 47.8% 46.6% Total debt/EBITDA 4.0 4.5 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.0 EBITDA/interest expense 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.0 FFO/Debt 20.2% 20.5% 17.4% 16.9% 17.6% RATE BASE AND SEGMENT ANALYSIS1 Implied Rate Base2 2,685,653.03$ 2,892,672.44$ Implied Regulatory Equity Ratio2 51.2% 51.2% Implied Earned ROE2, 3 10.3% 10.3%Implied Utility EPS $2.85 $3.07 Financial, Ida-West, Holdco $0.03 $0.03AFUDC$0.12 $0.05 Consolidated IDA EPS4 $3.00 $3.15 12010 and 2011 earnings based on previous settlement that enables Idapower to earn an ROE of at last 9.5% on year-end shareholder equity 12012 rate structure pending outcome of mid-2011 general rate case filing22012/2013 ROE and Equity ratio calculation based on ID and OR jurisdictional weighted average using previous rate case settlements/agreements 3 2012 average rate based includes partial-year of $397m Langley Gluch with COD expected mid-year 2012. 4Rate base analysis and segment EPS for presentation only and may differ from actual EPS forecasts Post 2011 earnings estimate exclude the uniform capitalization method agreement pending Joint Committee review ($60m 2011 impact, $5-6m annual ongoing impact) Source: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co, Inc., Company Reports Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, and EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 3 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 15% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 15% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 15% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (as of 7/31/11) Buy 76% (35% are banking clients) Neutral 24% (15% are banking clients) Sell 0% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. PAGE - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Some companies that Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (3) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of some or all of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses. The information and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2011 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.