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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2011 IDA080411.pdf Please refer to pages 6-7 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. * D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security. Institutional Equity Research IDACORP, INC. August 5, 2011 IDA* – NYSE Rating: Buy Price: (8/4/11) $36.47 Price Targets: 12-18 month: $44.50 5-year: $50.00 Industry: Utilities James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA 406.791.7230 jbellessa@dadco.com Michael Bates Research Associate 406.791.7216 mbates@dadco.com Maintaining Annual Forecast Despite 2Q Shortfall. Reiterating BUY. • IDACORP reported 2Q'11 EPS of $0.42, compared to $0.35 a year ago (2Q’10 EPS excludes the $0.47 net positive impact of non-recurring items). While management indicated results were in line with its expectations, results were below ours and the consensus estimate of $0.59. Earnings for the quarter compared favorably to the year-ago period due primarily to higher retail base rates, as well as additional amortization of deferred investment tax credits (ADITC). Results were held back by reduced sales to irrigators because of cool and wet spring weather, increased expenses for maintaining coal-fired facilities, and decreased earnings from coal sales. • Utility net income climbs. Utility EPS of $0.42 for the quarter compared favorably with an adjusted $0.37 in the year-ago period, while the company’s non- regulated businesses and holding company reported 2Q’11 results near breakeven (matching our forecast), compared to $0.01 per share in 2Q’10. • Maintaining estimates. Offsetting a portion of the 2Q’11 negative earnings variance from our forecast should be a 2H’11 adjustment to Bridger Coal Company coal prices to compensate for 1H’11 losses. This benefit, coupled with the expected use of $6.7 million in additional ADITC in 2H’11, should allow results to reach our $2.86 forecast. Our 2012 EPS forecast is being maintained at $3.00. We continue to acknowledge that near-term tax issues are likely to reduce the firm’s earnings predictability. • Rate case filings. On June 1, 2011, IPC filed a request for rate relief in Idaho asking for a $82.6 million, or 9.9%, increase, with new rates going into effect no sooner than January 1, 2012. On July 29, 2011, the utility asked Oregon regulators for a $5.8 million, or 14.7%, increase in rates. The company plans to rate base the Langley Gulch gas-fired plant (which should be operating by mid- 2012) through a stand-alone rate case next year. • Maintaining our 12-18 month price target and BUY rating. We are maintaining our target price of $44.50, which equates to ~14.7x the average of our unchanged 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates, plus the ~$1.20 one-time tax benefit expected from approval of the company’s uniform capitalization tax method. Valuation Data Long-term growth rate (E) 5% Total Debt/Cap (6/30/11) 49.9% Cash per share (6/30/11) $1.17 Book value per share (6/30/11) $31.45 Dividend (yield) $1.20 (3.3%) Return on Equity (T-T-M) 9.2% Trading Data Shares outstanding (M) 49.7 Market Capitalization ($M) $1,813 52-week range $34.30 - $40.71 Average daily volume (3 mos.) (K) 233 Float 100% Index Membership S&P 400 FY (Dec) 2010A 2011E Previous 2012E Previous Revenue ($M) Q1 (Mar) $253.0 $251.5 A - n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $241.8 $235.0 A $238.9 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $309.4 $325.8 E $325.7 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $232.0 $233.2 E NC n.a.n.a. $1,036.0 $1,045.4 E $1,049.2 $1,106.8 NC Price/Revenue 1.7x 1.7x 1.7x EPS Q1 (Mar) $0.34 $0.60 A - n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $0.82 $0.42 A $0.59 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $1.39 $1.38 E $1.24 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $0.41 $0.46 E $0.42 n.a.n.a. $2.95 $2.86 E $2.86 $3.00 NC Price/EPS 12.3x 12.7x 12.2x EBITDA ($M) Q1 (Mar) $69.0 $86.2 A - n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $70.2 $71.5 A $85.2 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $122.8 $129.6 E $129.1 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $73.7 $79.3 E $80.0 n.a.n.a. $335.7 $366.7 E $380.5 $421.1 $422.7 EV/EBITDA 9.9x 9.0x 7.9x D.A. Davidson & Co. 2 Price Chart 34.00 35.00 36.00 37.00 38.00 39.00 40.00 41.00 IDACORP Inc. (IDA-US) 04-Aug-2010 to 04-Aug-2011 (Daily)High:40.71 Low: 34.30 Last: 36.47 09/01/10 10/01/10 11/01/10 12/01/10 01/03/11 02/01/11 03/01/11 04/01/11 05/02/11 06/01/11 07/01/11 08/01/11 0.1M 0.2M 0.3M 0.4M 0.5M 0.6M ©FactSet Research Systems Volume in millions Source: FactSet Company Description: Boise, ID -- IDACORP, Inc. is the holding company for the Idaho Power Company, an electric public utility that serves an approximate 24,000 square mile area in Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Non-regulated subsidiaries include an affordable housing project finance company and an operator of small hydroelectric generation projects. Potential Risks: • Regulatory/Legislative. Changes in the regulatory and/or legislative environment could influence the utility’s business practices, credit ratings/access to capital markets, rate structure, cost recovery, and ability to attract returns on its investments. • Project delays or cancellations. The company is engaged in the development of projects which could be delayed or cancelled for numerous reasons. • Interest rates. Access to capital under competitive terms is critical to the company’s capital expenditure programs. Interest rate increases may also lead to compression in utility stock prices. • Economic and weather conditions may influence demand for IDACORP’s products and services. D.A. Davidson & Co. 3 IDACORP, Inc. – Regulatory Update Revenue Increase Rate Base ROE Equity % Requested June 2011 $82.6 (+9.9%) $2,400 10.50% 51.2% Requested July 2011 $5.8 (+14.7%) $122 10.50% 51.2% Effective, January 2010 $88.7 (+9.9%) Effective, March 2010 $5.0 (+15.4%) $111 10.2% 49.8% 3In January 2010, the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) approved a settlement agreement with respect to rates for 2009–2011, including four important elements: (1) a general rate freeze until January 1, 2012, with some exceptions (including adjustments to the power cost adjustment (PCA) and fixed cost adjustment (FCA)); (2) a specified distribution of the 2010 PCA decrease to directly reduce customer rates, providing some general rate relief to Idaho Power and resetting base level power supply costs for the PCA going forward; (3) use of up to $45 million of accumulated deferred investment tax credits (ADITC) to get to a 9.5% ROE in the Idaho jurisdiction; and (4) an equal sharing of any Idaho earnings exceeding the authorized level of 10.5%. 1A final decision is expected to be handed down by year-end 2011, with new rates effective January 1, 2012. 2010 Idaho Rate Settlement3 ($ in millions) 2009 Oregon General Rate Case 2011 Idaho General Rate Case 1 Notes 2010 Oregon Rate Case 2 2New rates are expected to go into effect on or after June 1, 2012. Last updated August 4, 2011 D.A. Davidson & Co. 4 IDACORP, Inc. - Quarterly Financial Position ($ in thousands) -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11E Current Assets: Cash And Cash Equivalents $9,892 $7,966 $8,828 $52,987 $228,677 $93,941 $58,316 Receivables: Customer 62,131 69,160 64,733 76,792 62,114 66,634 61,691 Allowance For Uncollectible Accounts (7,168) (7,505) (1,724) (2,878) Employee Notes Receivable 2,569 2,128 179 Other 11,855 10,957 10,260 12,995 10,157 13,426 8,050 Energy Marketing Assets 12,069 Taxes Receivable 18,111 12,130 Accrued Unbilled Revenues 31,365 36,314 43,934 51,272 47,964 41,592 49,779 Materials And Supplies (At Avg. Cost) 39,079 43,270 50,121 48,054 45,601 45,871 45,650 Fuel Stock (At Average Cost) 15,174 17,268 16,852 25,634 27,547 33,595 48,356 Prepayments 9,308 9,371 10,059 11,111 11,063 9,197 10,976 Deferred Income Taxes 28,035 25,672 37,550 31,773 10,715 9,537 7,411 Refundable Income Tax Deposit 44,903 46,083 Other Current Assets 3,993 6,023 7,381 2,666 4,667 23,020 36,344 Total Current Assets $266,531 $266,707 $266,284 $310,406 $460,635 $336,813 $326,573 Investments And Other Property 202,825 201,085 198,552 195,298 202,944 202,605 198,305 Total Other Assets 556,694 568,964 799,844 816,015 851,094 818,246 810,454 Electric Plant: In Service (At Original Cost) $3,583,694 $3,796,339 $4,030,134 $4,160,178 $4,332,054 $4,354,554 $4,388,461 Accumulated Provision For Depreciation (1,406,210) (1,468,832) (1,505,120) (1,558,538) (1,614,013) (1,633,509) (1,653,298) In Service - Net $2,177,484 $2,327,507 $2,525,014 $2,601,640 $2,718,041 $2,721,045 $2,735,163 Construction Work In Progress 210,094 257,590 207,662 289,188 416,950 485,249 545,649 Held For Future Use 2,810 3,366 6,318 7,151 7,076 7,081 7,081 Other Property, Net Of Accum. Depreciation 28,692 28,089 19,171 19,029 19,315 19,209 19,099 Property, Plant And Equipment - Net $2,419,080 $2,616,552 $2,758,165 $2,917,008 $3,161,382 $3,232,584 $3,306,992 Total Assets $3,445,130 $3,653,308 $4,022,845 $4,238,727 $4,676,055 $4,590,248 $4,642,324 Current Liabilities: Long-Term Debt Due Within One Year $95,125 $11,456 $86,528 $9,340 $122,572 $1,667 $1,667 Notes Payable 129,000 186,445 151,250 53,750 66,900 74,100 66,400 Accounts Payable 86,440 85,116 96,785 83,818 103,100 64,569 87,014 Taxes Accured 47,402 8,492 10,184 0 4,146 22,911 Interest Accrued 12,657 18,913 16,727 20,056 23,937 23,812 22,277 Uncertain Tax Positions 26,764 4,119 74,436 73,700 56,898 Other Current Liabilities 23,572 38,129 40,259 41,081 58,114 89,348 82,532 Total Current Liabilities $410,334 $375,315 $395,668 $218,229 $449,059 $331,342 $339,699 Total Other Liabilities 981,965 909,320 1,136,855 1,209,224 1,202,725 1,218,025 1,248,451 Noncontrolling Interest 4,478 4,434 4,209 3,871 3,619 3,695 Preferred Stock Long-Term Debt 928,648 1,156,880 1,183,451 1,409,730 1,488,287 1,487,305 1,487,387 Total Common Stock Equity $1,124,183 $1,207,315 $1,302,437 $1,397,335 $1,532,113 $1,549,957 $1,563,092 Total Capitalization And Liabilities $3,445,130 $3,653,308 $4,022,845 $4,238,727 $4,676,055 $4,590,248 $4,642,324 Common Shares Outstanding (End of Period)43,834 45,063 46,920 47,897 49,419 49,556 49,705 Total Debt (end of period)1,152,773 1,354,781 1,421,229 1,472,820 1,677,759 1,563,072 1,555,454 Total Debt (average)1,126,363 1,253,777 1,388,005 1,447,025 1,575,290 1,620,416 1,559,263 Book Value Per Share $25.65 $26.79 $27.76 $29.17 $31.00 $31.28 $31.45 Current Ratio 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 Capital Structure: Common Equity 49.4% 47.2% 47.9% 48.8% 47.8% 49.8% 50.2% Debt (Short-Term & Long-Term)50.6% 52.8% 52.1% 51.2% 52.2% 50.2% 49.8% Capitalization 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: Company reports D.A. Davidson & Co. 5 IDACORP, Inc. - Historical and Projected Operating Results ($ in thousands) -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2009 1Q'10 2Q'10 3Q'10 4Q'10 2010 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11E 4Q'11E 2011E 2012E Electric Utility Revenues: General Business $883,765 $203,745 $204,277 $266,270 $196,079 $870,371 $203,272 $194,296 $277,995 $200,064 $875,627 $921,669 Off System Sales 94,373 34,406 17,769 12,070 13,888 78,133 29,845 20,720 16,953 12,257 79,775 98,100 Other Revenues 67,858 14,309 18,744 30,128 21,367 84,548 17,945 18,908 30,000 20,000 86,853 83,500 Total Electric Utility Revenues 1,045,996 252,460 240,790 308,468 231,334 1,033,052 251,062 233,924 324,948 232,321 1,042,255 1,103,269 Revenue from Diversified Operations 3,804 503 963 889 622 2,977 432 1,059 850 850 3,191 3,500 Total Revenues $1,049,800 $252,963 $241,753 $309,357 $231,956 $1,036,029 $251,494 $234,983 $325,798 $233,171 $1,045,446 $1,106,769 Operating Expenses: Electric Utility: Purchased Power $160,569 $21,174 $30,349 $62,227 $30,019 $143,769 $25,094 $36,423 $47,916 $31,980 $141,413 $163,360 Fuel Expense 149,566 37,187 27,558 51,339 43,589 159,673 29,902 19,704 53,291 36,707 139,604 154,458 Third Party Transmission Expense 6,629 0 Power Cost Adjustment 66,710 48,324 28,071 (20,934) (4,235)51,226 31,306 15,501 (7,000) (4,000)35,807 8,000 Total Power Supply Expenses $383,474 $106,685 $85,978 $92,632 $69,373 $354,668 $86,302 $71,628 $94,207 $64,687 $316,824 $325,818 Other Operations And Maintenance 293,111 72,094 75,125 71,939 74,767 293,925 70,661 85,472 81,237 77,828 315,197 319,948 Energy Efficiency Programs 31,821 5,034 8,765 19,549 10,836 44,184 6,711 5,796 20,000 11,000 43,507 48,500 Gain On Sale Of Emission Allowances (298)0 0 Depreciation 110,626 28,583 28,726 29,137 29,475 115,921 29,464 29,693 30,000 30,250 119,407 123,000 Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 21,069 5,680 5,805 5,645 6,916 24,046 7,211 7,182 5,524 5,111 25,028 22,617 Total Electric Utility Expenses $839,803 $218,076 $204,399 $218,902 $191,367 $832,744 $200,349 $199,771 $230,969 $188,875 $819,964 $839,883 Other Expenses 6,414 840 749 1,462 1,564 4,615 1,054 913 1,200 1,200 4,367 4,800 Total Operating Expenses $846,217 $218,916 $205,148 $220,364 $192,931 $837,359 $201,403 $200,684 $232,169 $190,075 $824,331 $844,683 Operating Income: Electric Utility $206,193 $34,384 $36,391 $89,566 $39,967 $200,308 $50,713 $34,153 $93,979 $43,446 $222,291 $263,386 Other Diversified Operations (2,610)(337) 214 (573) (942)(1,638)(622) 146 (350) (350)(1,176) (1,300) Equity In Earnings Of Partnerships Combined Operating Income $203,583 $34,047 $36,605 $88,993 $39,025 $198,670 $50,091 $34,299 $93,629 $43,096 $221,115 $262,086 Total Other Income:16,997 4,481 3,012 3,550 4,122 15,165 4,538 5,041 3,500 3,500 16,579 16,000 Earnings Of Uncons. Eq-Method Inv.(1,033)(2,378) 380 3,442 1,564 3,008 (1,294) (4,447) (750) (1,000)(7,491) (4,000) INTEREST EXPENSE AND OTHER: Interest On Long-Term Debt $73,371 $19,441 $19,427 $20,135 $21,487 $80,490 $20,847 $19,504 $20,150 $21,300 $81,801 $85,000 Other Interest (561)(453) (2,038) (1,390) (1,495)(5,376)(1,888) (1,936) (1,700) (1,800)(7,324) (4,000) Total Interest Expense And Other $72,810 $18,988 $17,389 $18,745 $19,992 $75,114 $18,959 $17,568 $18,450 $19,500 $74,477 $81,000 Income Before Income Taxes: 146,737 17,162 22,608 77,240 24,719 141,729 34,376 17,325 77,929 26,096 155,726 193,086 Income Taxes:22,362 1,305 (16,629) 10,115 4,478 (731)4,888 (3,652) 8,962 3,001 13,199 36,686 Tax Rate 15% 8% -74% 13% 18%-1%14% -21% 12% 12%8% 19% Net Income $124,375 $15,857 $39,237 $67,125 $20,241 $142,460 $29,488 $20,977 $68,967 $23,095 $142,527 $156,400 Adjustment For Noncontrolling Interest (25)206 (28) 10 150 338 252 (76) 75 75 326 300 Net Income Available For Common $124,350 $16,063 $39,209 $67,135 $20,391 $142,798 $29,740 $20,901 $69,042 $23,170 $142,853 $156,700 Avg. Common Shares Outstanding (000)47,182 47,885 48,048 48,252 49,162 48,340 49,356 49,516 50,116 50,716 49,926 52,216 Earnings Per Share (Diluted)$2.64 $0.34 $0.82 $1.39 $0.41 $2.95 $0.60 $0.42 $1.38 $0.46 $2.86 $3.00 Dividends Per Common Share $1.20 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $1.30 Dividend Payout Ratio 46%89% 37% 22% 72%41%50% 71% 22% 66%42% 43% EPS By Segment Idaho Power Company $2.60 $0.38 $0.81 $1.34 $0.39 $2.91 $0.60 $0.42 $1.37 $0.45 $2.84 $2.95 Idacorp Energy (0.01)0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)0.00 (0.00) (0.00) Ida-West Energy 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.02 Idacorp Financial 0.01 (0.00) 0.00 (0.01) 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Holding Company (0.03)(0.05) (0.01) 0.04 0.02 (0.01)(0.01) (0.02) EPS From Continuing Operations $2.64 $0.34 $0.82 $1.39 $0.41 $2.95 $0.60 $0.42 $1.38 $0.46 $2.86 $3.00 Source: Company reports and D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2011. All rights reserved. 6 Required Disclosures D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA and Michael Bates, the research analysts principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions. We, James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA and Michael Bates, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Ratings Information D.A. Davidson & Co. Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform Risk adjusted return potential azbycx Over 15% total return expected on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months >0-15% return potential on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Likely to remain flat or lose value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Distribution of Ratings (as of 6/30/11) Buy Hold Sell Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform and Distribution 56% 40% 4% Corresponding Individual Investor Group Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform and Distribution 62% 38% 0% Distribution of Combined Ratings 56% 40% 4% Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos. Institutional Coverage 4% 2% 10% Individual Investor Group Coverage 0% 10% 0% Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 4% 3% 10% D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2011. All rights reserved. 7 Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria. Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends. Other Disclosures Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee, express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment sophistication on the part of the recipient. 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