HomeMy WebLinkAbout2011 8 10 2011 IDA 2Q11 Results.pdf
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▲IDACORP reported Q2 EPS of $0.42 versus the prior year EPS of $0.82 (which
includes $0.52 income tax benefit). Though shy of the consensus estimate of $0.59, we view the results to be within normal. Benefit from plentiful hydroelectric generation was
offset by reduced irrigation customer demand (as would be expected) and higher O&M and purchased power costs.
The utility filed the 2011 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), as required every two years, in
June. The IRP contains the long-term supply and demand outlook used for planning. Of note, on the near-term horizon, the company plans to build a 1 MW solar PV
demonstration facility.
The utility also filed a general rate case in Idaho in June which would not go into place until January 1, 2012. The company has requested a higher equity ratio than currently
authorized and a somewhat higher revenue increase on a percentage basis than has been granted in the past, but otherwise, the request is in line with prior experience.
We are leaving our 2011 and 2012 estimates of $2.90 and $3.00, respectively,
unchanged. Despite the recent market weakness, we maintain our Hold rating with a $36 price target based on 12x the 2012 EPS estimate.
Risks: rate case uncertainty, rising interest rates, natural gas price volatility and poor
hydrogeneration conditions.
Company Description: IDACORP provides electric service to retail customers in Idaho and Oregon through its Idaho Power Company subsidiary, which comprises more than
95% of earnings, and invests in housing and other real estate properties through other subsidiaries. The company was founded in 1915 and is based in Boise, Idaho.
8.10.2011
Jennifer Sireklove, CFA > jsireklove@mwrinc.com > 206.664.8875
Q2 Results Within Normal; Maintaining Hold $34.98 | HOLD
•IDA reported Q2 EPS of $0.42 versus an adjusted $0.30 last year and $0.59 expected, as costs outweighed hydro benefit.
•We maintain our Hold rating and price target of $36 based on 12x our 2012 estimate of $3.00.
52 Week High $40.71
52 Week Low $33.88
P/E FY10A 11.9x
FY11E 12.1x
FY12E 11.7x
Target Price $36
Shares Out (Mil) 49.6
Market Cap (Mil) $1,735
Avg Daily Vol (Mil) 243.0
Dividend / Yield $1.20/3.4%
3- 5 yr EPS Growth 5%
Book Value/Share $31.28
Fiscal Year End Dec.
EPS ESTIMATES
FY10A $2.95
FY11E $2.90
FY12E $3.00
IDACORP, Inc. (IDA)
Additional required disclosures under NASD Rule 2711 are provided on the last page of this document. McAdams Wright Ragen > 925 Fourth Avenue, Suite 3900 Seattle, WA 98104 888.567.6297 > www.mwrinc.com Page 2 of 2
Required Disclosures:
Jennifer Sireklove, CFA > jsireklove@mwrinc.com > 206.664.8875
• I, Jennifer Sireklove, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views in this research note accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this note.
As of June 30, 2011
From To Date Price
Price Target $36 5/24/2010 $32.40
Coverage Initiation Hold 5/24/2010 $32.40
Ratings Change Focus List Change Target Price Change
The firm expects to receive and intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next
three months.
Price targets are subject to change as new information becomes available, and reflect our current judgment regarding this
security. Note that there are risks that may impede the achievement of a predicted price target. Price targets are based on fundamental factors such as historical and projected earnings, cash flow, discounted cash flow, relative book value, peer group
evaluation, relative sector valuations, and expectations on general market and economic conditions. McAdams Wright Ragen employs a Ratings System (in effect since 6/12/2002), defined as follows.
Buy/Addition to InStock Recommended List: We expect the Stock to Outperform the Market. Hold/Addition to InStock Recommended List: We expect the Stock to be a Market Performer.
Sell/Removal from InStock Recommended List: We expect the Stock to Underperform the Market. Ratings System in effect between 2/7/2002 and 6/12/2002: Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell.
Ratings System in effect prior to 2/7/2002: Buy, Moderate Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell.
Percentage of Rated Stocks Currently
Assigned this Rating
Percentage of Rated Stocks with this Rating with where MWR has provided investment banking
services within the previous 12 months.
Buy 53% 3%
Hold 28% 0%
Sell 19% 0%
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MWR’s Research Department at (206) 664-8854, research@mwrinc.com
Other disclosures: This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this
date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. Our firm, or its officers, research
personnel, other employees or customers may have long or short positions in the securities or options of the recommended issuers, may buy and sell the securities or options,
may serve as an officer or director of any company mentioned, prior to or at the time of publication of the report or thereafter.