200610022006 IRP Appendix C.pdf

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2006 SEP 29 PI'l 4: 50 An IDACORP company
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Append ix Econom ic Fore~1L~t1~suco~~~)IAI8SI0;"For the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan IPC-O6-
Appendix (-Economic Forecast
For the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
--
IDAHOa.:!! POWER
An IDACORP company
The information in the Economic Forecast was compiled and
prepared by John Church , Idaho Economics.
Idaho Economics
O. Box 45694
Boise , 10 83711-5694
[phone]
Fax: [phone]
e-mail: ideconomics(Q1earthlink.net
- ..
Printed on recycled paper
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Lis t 0 f Figures. .
. . . .. . .. . .. .. .. .. . .. .. , .. , .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. . . .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . .. .. .. .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. ...
i v
Employment Forecasts by Year
... ...... ..... ........... ........... ............ ................... ......................... ......... .......... ....
Total Nonagricultural Employment, Farm, Agricultural Services, Forestry and Fisheries
Mining, Construction, Transportation, Communication, and Utilities, Wholesale and Retail
Trade , Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, Services, Govemment......................................................
Manufacturing Employment Detail.......................................................................................................
Forecast of Population, Households, and Persons per Household...............................................................
Forecast of Personal Income...................................................................................................................... 1 0
Total, Per Capita, Disposable , Disposable Per Capita, and Income Components ...............................
Recent Employment Trends in Idaho...................................................................................................... ..
Nonagricultural....................................................................................................................................
Idaho .....................
.........................................................................................................................
Boise MSA.....................................................................................................................................
Manufacturing Industries """""""""""""""""""""""""""".............................................................
Boise MSA...................................................""""".""""""""""""""""'."""'"............................
Wood Products..................................................................,............................................................
Food Processing '.""""""""""""""""""""""""""..................................................,....................
Electronics......................................................................................................................................
Construction. ...... ...................
.... ..... ......... ..... """"""".""", ................... ........... ..... .... .......... .................
Residential Construction......................................................................................................................
Wholesale and Retail Trade.............................................................................................. ................ ...
Leisure and Hospitality ...
.................... ......... """" ........ ...... ....:........... ........................ ..... .................. ...
A Comparison to the 2005 Economic Outlook.................................................................................. ..
Projected Employment Growth...................................................,..................................................
Projected Population Growth................................................................................,........................
Potential High and Low Economic Growth Scenarios of the 2006 IRP Economic Forecast........
High Growth Scenario .............................................................................................................
Low Growth Scenario................................................""""""."",""""""'.""""""""""'".......
Overview of the Idaho Economic Forecasting Model............................................................................ ...
Industry Models """""""""""""""".""""""""""'"................................,..........................................
Per Capita Personal Income........................
:....................................................................................... .
Population """"""""""""".,."""""""""""""".........................,.........................................................
County Economic Forecast (2006-2030) ..........."..... ...... ................ .............
............. .....".. .......... .............
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page i
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
Forecast Summaries ......................................................""""""""""""""""""""".""""""................
Population """"""""""""""""""""""""""'"""""""""""""""".""""""'."""'".........................
Households.....................................................................................................................................
Employment..............................................,....................................................................................
Total Nonagricultrual............................................................................,......................
:...........
Mining......................................................................,...............................................................
Construction
......................................................,""""""""""""""""""""."""""'"...... ..........
Manufacturing..................................................................,...........................,...........................
Transportation, Communications, and Utilities.......................................................................41
Wholesale and Retail Trade .....................................................................................................
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate........................................................................................43
Services ....................................................................................................................................
Government.... ...... .................. .......... ............... ...
............ ..... """""""" ........ .................. .... .......
Total Personal Income .......................................................,................................,..........................
Idaho County'Forecasts...................................................................................,....................................
Ada....................................................................................................,............................................
Bannock .........................................................................................................................................
Adams ........................................................................................................,...................................
Bear Lake.................................................................................................
:.....................................
Benewah... .............. .......... ..... ......... .............. ..................
........................... .... .... ....... ....... .... .... .......
Bingham ..... .............................. .............
,.......... .... ............ ................. ...... """"""" ........ ......... ........
Blaine ....................................................................................................,........................................
Boise """""""""""""""""""'.".""""'"""""""""""""""""""""
"""""'"...................................
Bonner ................. .........................................
"""."""""""""""""'" ... ........... ..... ....................... ....
Bonneville .... ........ ..............
... ... """"".""""""" .... ....... ......... .............. ........ ............ ..... ..................- .
Boundary """"""""""'"
....... ... ..... ........ .... """.'" ............ ............... .... ......................,........... ..... ......
Butte. """"" ................................... ......... """"""'"
....... .................... .............. ..... ................ .... .......
Camas......................................................,......................................................................................
Canyon .....................
.....................................................,................................................................
Caribou....... ...... .........
................................... ...... ................. ..... ...., ........ ........ .......... ..... ....... ... ........
Cassia ...........................................................................,.................................................................
Clark. ...... ....... .......
................................. ........ ........ ........... ......... ..................................... .... .... ........
Clearwater ......,...............................................................................................................................
Custer ..................................................................................................................,..........................
Page ii 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
Elmore........................................................................................,....................................,..............
Franklin .........................................................................................................,................................
Fremont ..............................................................................................,...........................................
Gem.................................................................................................,..............................................
Gooding................,............
..............................................................................................................
Idaho ........................................................................................,.....................................................
Jefferson.............................................""""""""",."""""""""""""""""......................................
Jerome "".""""""".""""""""""""".."""......................................................................................
Kootenai.......................................................................................................................................101
Latah ............................................,...............................................................................................103
Lemhi """""""""""""""""""""".""'.'"...,.................................................................................105
Lewis ........ ............. .... ............... ...
... ... ... ............. ""."""".""" ..... .... ..... .....,...... ....... .... ...... ..... ..... ..
1 07
Lincoln """"""""".""""""",.""""""""""",................................................,..............................109
Madison....................................................................................,............................
.......................
111
Minidoka ........................................................,.............................................................................113
Nez Perce ........................................................................................"......................................... ..115
Oneida................................................'..""""""""""""""""""""""""'"....................................117
Owyhee ...........................................................................................
:............................................
119
Payette..........................................................................................................................................121
Power """"""""""""""""".".",.""."""""",...............................................................................123
Shoshone ...........................................................................................................,..........................125
Teton ......................................,...................................................,.................................................127
Twin Falls ....................................................................................................................................129
Valley ....................,......................................................................................................................131
Washington .......................................,.....................................................,....................................133
Oregon County Forecasts..............................................
~....................................................................
135
Baker ........................................................,............,......................................................................135
Harney """"""""",..""."".""""""""""""..............................,..................................................137
Malheur ..................................,....................,.""",.,.""",.,.""""""",.""""""",.....................,......139
Summaries for the State ofIdaho and the Boise MSA ......................................................................141
State of Idaho............................................................................................................................. ..141
Boise MSA................................................................................................,..................................143
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page iii
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
LIST OF FIGURES .. i
Schematic Presentation of the Idaho Economic-Demographic Forecasting Model................
Flow Chart of Economic Model Industry Equations
....................... .................. ......................
Idaho Economic Forecast Flow Chart of Personal Income Determination .............................
' ,
Flow Chart of Population Determination.................................................................,............. ..
( ,. '-- ,, ..
Page iv 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
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Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
A Comparison to the 2005
Economic OuUook
The 2006 Integrated Resource Plan Economic
Forecast for the State of Idaho and its 44
counties is for a stronger economic outlook than
contemplated in the Company s previous Idaho
Economic Forecast that was completed in the
summer of2004.
During the years 2004 and through the first half
of2005, Idaho s economy was regaining
strength after the national economic recession of
2001. The national economic slowdown of 200
brought about the first significant overall
slowdown in the State s economic growth since
1986.
,During the economic downturn of 200 1 , the
economic sectors of the Idaho economy that
were the hardest hit were the natural resource
industries (timber, lumber and wood products
mining, chemical products and processing, and
food processing), the State s high-tech
manufacturing industries, and, because of lower
tax revenues during the economic slowdown
the government sector of the Idaho economy.
During the 1990s, Idaho s manufacturing
industries had been the State s engine of
economic growth. Nevertheless, Idaho
manufacturing industries could not withstand
the economic forces of the 2001 national
recession, and the number of manufacturing
jobs in Idaho slipped by 2.3 percent, 5.0 percent
and 4.5 percent during the years of2001 , 2002
and 2003, respectively.
In 2004 the rate of manufacturing job losses in
Idaho slowed to -8 percent. At year-end 2004
Idaho s economy had shed nearly 9 500
manufacturing jobs from its August 2000
pre-recession peak of employment of nearly
000.
In addition, Idaho s natural resource industries
of logging and mining (these are different than
the manufacturing industries that process these
resources) were also affected by the national
economic slowdown in 2001 and, in turn
experienced severe cutbacks in employment
across the State. In total, Idaho employment in
the natural resource industries of logging and
mining shrank by nearly 25 percent from
mid-year 2001 to year-end 2004.
Along with the 2001 national economic
slowdown and the slowdown in the State
economy, the Idaho state government
experienced a significant decline in state
personal and corporate income tax and state
sales tax collections. Faced with the prospect of
annual operating budget deficits, and
constrained by provisions in the Idaho State
Constitution that require that the State balance
its budget annually, the Idaho state government
found it necessary to not only cut spending but
to also curtail state government employment.
Government employment in Idaho, which, prior
to the 20Ql national recession had been
increasing at an annual average pace of 2.
percent per year, slowed and posted il!creases of
1.3 percent in the years 2001 and 2002. In 2003
Idaho State Government employment declined
by nearly 0.7 percent. Overall, total government
employment in the State (employment at the
federal, state, and local government levels)
could only manage to post a modest overall gain
of 0.9 percent during 2003.
The economic events of 200 1 through 2003
caught the attention of the media in Idaho, and
were felt by many citizens across the State. And
while the State s economic slowdown from
2001 through 2003 had a significant impact on
many industries , communities, and people in
Idaho, the bottom line was that at year-end 2003
it was widely perceived that Idaho s economy
had not suffered as much as was initially
expected.
Nevertheless, while 2003 really was the last
year of lower than average economic growth in
Idaho, it was a year that started with great
expectations on the local economic front and
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page 19
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
ended with the State s economy seemingly
headed toward another period of stagnation,
Strong employment gains in the State during the
first quarter of2003 (1.5 percent) gave way to
much weaker employment growth in the second
third, and fourth quarters of the year (0.4
percent overall). The first quarter of 2004 saw
Idaho non-agricultural employment post a
respectable 1.3 percent year-over-year gain. In
the second quarter of 2004 non-agricultural
employment growth in Idaho again surged
ahead-to a 3.0 percent annual pace-and has
not slowed since.
Similarly, the Boise MSA (Idaho s Ada and
Canyon Counties), which had captured the
lion s share of economic activity throughout
most of the 1990s, came back with a renewed
vigor in 2004. In total for the year 2004
non-agricultural employment in the Boise MSA
posted a 3.0 percent increase over the annual
average employment figures for 2003 , and in the
first six months of 2005 the pace of employment
gains in the Boise MSA accelerated further to a
9 percent annual pace.
The stronger employment gains in Idaho, and
throughout Southern Idaho in particular, are the
primary drivers behind the stronger economic
outlook presented in the 2006 Integrated
Resource Plan Economic Forecast.
Projected Employment Growth
Idaho s construction and service industries
provided much of the State s job growth during
2004 and into the first half of 2005.
Construction employment in Idaho posted a 7.
percent gain in 2004, and at mid-year 2005 was
running at an 11.6 percent pace ahead of 2004
levels creating nearly 4 600 additional jobs
statewide. Residential construction activity
remained strong throughout 2004 and into 2005.
In the Company s Summer 2004 Economic
Forecast it was anticipated that residential
housing construction would slow as the Federal
Reserve Bank (the FED) began to increase
short-term interest rates. And, while the FED
increased short-term interest rates as expected
those short-term rate hikes did not directly
translate to increases in long-term home
mortgage interest rates. In addition to a
. continuation of favorable financing terms for
homeownership, in spite of the FEDs policy of
increasing interest rates , an improving overall
national economy provided more and more
potential new home buyers with a boost in
income. The outcome of this situation was a
continuation of a strong residential housing
market nationally and locally, and a
continuation of the strong growth in
construction employment in Idaho and the Boise
MSA.
\. '\. '
The service industry in Idaho has also
experienced a notable increase in employment
over the past 18 months. The professional and
business services sector of the Idaho economy
has consistently posted annual employment
gains of greater than 5.0 percent in each of the
last six calendar quarters. The bottom line is that
the State s economic recovery that was
anticipated in the Company s S1Jmmer 2004
Economic Forecast was not as strong as it was
expected to be during 2004, but turned out to be
much stronger than expected in 2005. In
addition, an upward revision of Idaho s historic
employment figures for the years 2003 and 2004
causes the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Economic Forecast to have a much more
optimistic outlook for future economic gains in
both the economy of the State ofIdaho and
within the Idaho Power Service Area economy
over the 25-year forecast period.
, :" j. ;( )
In the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan Economic
Forecast, Idaho s total level of non-agricultural
employment in the year 2010 is projected to be
nearly 1.5 percent higher than level predicted in
the Company s Summer 2004 Economic
outlook and, by the year 2030, Idaho s non-
agricultural employment in the 2006 Integrated
Resource Plan Economic Forecast is projected
to surp~ss the Company s 2004 Economic
'-'i.
. .,
Page 20 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
Forecast figure for non-agricultural employment
by 6.4 percent.
Manufacturing employment does not fare as
well in the latest outlook. The forecasted level
of Idaho manufacturing employment in the 2006
Integrated Resource Plan Economic Forecast is
expected to be 3.2 percent below the levels
projected in the last year s economic forecast by
the year 20 I 0 and nearly 5.2 percent below the
2030 level of manufacturing employment in the
Company s Summer 2004 economic outlook.
However, manufacturing employment is the
only industry sector in Idaho and the Idaho
Power service area that is projected in this 2006
Integrated Resource Plan Forecast to have lower
future levels of employment.
Projected Population Growth
Projections of the future population of Idaho
remain strong in the most recent economic
outlook. The 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Economic Forecast predicts that Idaho s total
population will reach nearly 1.55 million by
2010 and exceed 2.11 million by the year 2030,
These estimates are 1.4 percent and 4.3 percent
respectively, above the levels anticipated in the
Company s Summer 2004 Economic Forecast.
The projected number of future households in
the State and the Idaho Power Service area are
similarly higher in the 2006 Integrated Resource
Plan Economic Forecast.
A continued in-migration of residents from
other states-and from overseas-have
accounted for an increase of nearly 36 700
additional residents in the State since the 2000
Census. This is an in-migration that continued
even as Idaho s economy slowed to its lowest
level of economic growth seen in the past two
decades.
Potential High and Low Economic
Growth Scenarios of the 2006 IRP
Economic Forecast
An examination of potential High and Low
economic growth scenarios of the 2006
Integrated Resource Plan Economic Forecast
was prepared and examined as a potential
alternative view of the economic future of Idaho
and its 44 counties. Preparation of alternative
economic outlooks, while they may not be
adopted as the baseline scenario or most likely
economic outlook, they do provide a means of
calibration-a "reality check" as to the
reasonability of the baseline economic outlook.
Therefore, the preparation of alternative
economic scenarios is often a reasonable
exercise in identifying potential flaws in an
economic outlook, and as a test of the
reasonability of a baseline economic forecast.
The potential High economic growth scenario of
the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan Economic
Forecast presents a long-term vision of rapidly
growing economy in Idaho. For example, this
potential High Growth scenario produces a
proj ected statewide population of nearly
350 500 in the year 2030 versus a baseline
economic forecast scenario ofIdaho
population attaining nearly 2 112 800 in the
same year. The high forecast scenario presents
an absolute population gain of nearly 957 000
over Idaho s estimated 2004 population of
393 300 , and an annual average compound
rate of population growth of 2.2 percent per
year.
Alternatively, the potential Low Growth
scenario of the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Economic Forecast does not present as rosy an
economic outlook for the Idaho economy. In the
potential Low Growth scenario, Idaho s 2030
population is projected to reach the much lower
level of 1 822 850. The potential Low Growth
scenario s projected 2030 population is 173 800
above Idaho s mid-year 2004 estimated
population of 1 393 300, and represents an
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page 21
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
annual average compound growth rate of
population growth of 1.1 percent per year.
While the potential High and Low economic
growth scenarios of the 2006 Integrated
Resource Plan Economic Forecast represent two
significantly different views of Idaho
economic future, they are not unprecedented.
An examination of historic employment
population, and household growth over the 1970
through 2000 period was performed, This
examination, using either 5-year or 10-year
moving averages of the growth of I-digit SIC
code employment concepts, population, and
households in order to dampen the effects of
peak periods of economic growth, revealed that
historic levels have exceeded the projected rates
of growth in the potential High and Low
economic growth scenarios of the 2006
Integrated Resource Plan Economic Forecast.
An examination of the possible economic and
demographic events that could produce the
economic and population growth projected in
these potential High growth and Low growth
economic forecast scenarios is outlined below.
High Growth Scenario
Since the mid-1980s, Idaho s engine of growth
has been the extraordinary growth that it has
experienced in the manufacturing industries.
Today Idaho manufacturing firms are in the
midst of an economic slowdown as are many
manufacturing industries nationally and
internationally. Nevertheless, the 2001 national
recession has, in all likelihood, had a
longer-term impact on Idaho s manufacturing
industries.
Idaho manufacturing firms express many
reasons for the State s attractiveness to
manufacturing industries. Idaho has a relatively
young and educated labor force, Many express
that the cost of doing business in Idaho is lower
than in many other areas of the nation. The
facets of these lower costs most often cited are:
lower property taxes, lower rates on workman
compensation and unemployment insurance, a
lower level of government regulation, mandates
or restrictions that add costs to doing business
lower land costs, lower energy costs, and lower
labor costs.
A few Idaho manufacturing firms that have
operations in other areas of the U.S. have
indicated that the lower labor costs available in
Idaho have allowed them to maintain a
competitive edge in the world marketplace for
their products. And, indirectly have further cut
their labor and training costs and have enhanced
labor productivity. These firms indicate that in
order to remain competitive in a worldwide
marketplace for their product they must keep
labor costs to a minimum. However, the cost of
labor in other parts of the U.S. were the
cost-of-living is high dictates that they must
either pay a high wage rate or suffer high rates
of labor turnover, with the adjunctive expense of
higher training costs and lower levels of labor
productivity. In Idaho these firms have found
that they can compensate their labor with a
wage that allows them remain competitive in the
marketplace and provide the worker with a
reasonable standard of living. This in turn cuts
labor turnover, training expenses, and increases
labor productivity,
However, even in the High Growth scenario, not
all of the State s existing manufacturing firms
will grow in the future, Idaho s manufacturing
industries of Lumber and Wood Products, Food
and Kindred Products, and Chemicals and
Allied Products industries are likely to face a
long-term decline in activity and employment
levels in almost any scenario.
" ;( ,,- ,\. - ;
In addition, two other traditional mainstay Idaho
industries, Mining and Agriculture, are likely to
face a long-term future of no-growth or a slow
level of decline in both levels of output and
employment. The difference between the
economic outlooks for these industries
presented in the High and Low Growth
Scenarios ,of the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Page 22 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
Economic Forecast is how rapid that rate of
decline will be in the future.
Underpinning the High Growth scenario is a
continuation of stellar growth of Idaho
manufacturing industries. The pattern of these
future manufacturing employment gains are
expected to look similar to the manufacturing
growth experienced in Idaho during the 1990s-
largely concentrated in the "high-tech"
manufacturing industries of Non-electrical
Machinery, Electrical and Electronic
Equipment, and Instruments. Furthermore, these
future manufacturing employment gains are
likely to be, as they were in the 1990s, spatially
concentrated in the State. In the 1990s, five of
Idaho s 44 counties, Ada, Canyon, Bannock
Bonneville, and Kootenai , captured nearly 90
percent of the State s total manufacturing
employment gains. With the exception of
Kootenai County, all ofthe above counties are
within the Intermountain Gas Company service
area.
Idaho remains attractive to the high-tech
industries. New firms (to Idaho) continue to
make inquiries about locating within the State.
In addition to the probability of manufacturing
firms locating operations in Idaho, is the
continued development of many "spin-off'
manufacturing or service industry firms from
the State s existing manufacturing industries. In
the Boise MSA alone, these "spin-off'
establishments have directly created nearly
000 jobs locally over the past 15 years.
Specifically, the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Economic Forecast's potential high economic
growth scenario assumes that manufacturing in
Idaho will experience:
The Food Processing industry regains
strength and increases employment. By
the years 2010 and 2020 the High
Scenario forecast projects that Foods
Processing industry employment will be
nearly 375 jobs (2.5%) and 600 jobs
(4.0%), respectively, higher than in the
baseline economic forecast. However, no
new food processing plants are expected
to be opened in Idaho,
Employment in Idaho s Lumber and
Wood Products manufacturing industry
remains stable at levels that are slightly
below those that the State experienced in
2000. This represents a High scenario
and is an improvement in the economic
outlook from the baseline economic
forecast scenario in which the Lumber
industry employment is projected to
decline by nearly 1.0% per year over the
2000 to 2030 forecast period. No new
manufacturing facilities are projected to
be opened in the High Scenario forecast.
Idaho s Electronics Industry rebounds in
the High Case Scenario with the
projected opening of a new production
plant in the Boise MSA. This plant is
projected to be roughly equivalent in
size to AMI's facility in Pocatello and is
expected in the High Case scenario to
employ approximately 750 people by the
year 20 I 0 and 1 200 by the 2020. In the
baseline economic forecast scenario it is
proj ected that other, already existing,
electronics industry manufacturers in
Idaho are expected to add nearly 4 000
jobs over the 2000 to 2030 forecast
period, with other new-to-Idaho
manufacturers adding nearly 4 400 new
jobs in the 2000 to 2030 forecast period.
Idaho s employment in Stone, Clay, and
Glass Products and Fabricated Metal
Products manufacturing are projected to
be nearly 5.0% greater in the High Case
scenario than in the baseline economic
forecast by the year 2010, and 15.0% '
higher than the baseline economic
forecast by the year 2020. This
assumption is based upon an economic
outlook that anticipates a continuation of
high levels of activity in the region
Construction Industry. This assumption
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page 23
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
adds an additional 550 manufacturing
jobs to the High Case scenario.
These projected manufacturing employment
gains, in turn, spur employment growth in the
secondary industries found in the affected and
nearby communities. These secondary industries
include employment in: Transportation
Communications, and Utilities; Construction;
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Finance, Insurance
and Real Estate; the Service industries; and
local serving elements of Government.
In the High Growth scenario, other basic
industry sectors of the Idaho economy would
contribute to future employment gains, A
renewed interest in nuclear power as a means of
generating electricity would bring renewed
vigor and increased levels of employment to the
S. Department of Energy s Idaho Nuclear and
Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). In
addition, nuclear waste clean-up activities at
INEEL are programmed to accelerate in the next
decade, causing a further upswing in INEEL
employment levels. Indirectly, these would
boost secondary industry employment growth in
the Eastern Idaho counties of Bannock
Bingham, Bonneville, Jefferson, and Madison-
all within the Intermountain Gas Company
servIce area.
In the High Growth scenario it is assumed that
Mountain Home Air Force Base, 55 miles
southeast of Boise, would experience a modest
expansion of assigned personnel. The Gowen
Field Idaho National Guard facility in Boise
would also experience a modest expansion in
the number of assigned personnel from its
current level of nearly 1 000 to nearly 1 200.
Historically, federal government civilian
employment in Idaho has been on a path of slow
decline for many years. Federal government
employment in the State has always had a very
large proportion dedicated to the management
and maintenance of the federal forests'and
rangelands. These management functions have
been cut to the barest levels over the past two
decades. The High Growth Scenario anticipates
that federal employment associated with the
management of federal lands will stabilize in the
future.
However, the federal employment in Idaho that
is primarily serving the local population (the
federal courts, IRS , EP A, OSHA, EDA, FBI
DEA) will increase in the future as Idaho
population increases. In addition, the National
Fire Center (an inter-agency facility in Boise for
the purpose of combating forest and rangeland
fires anywhere in the u.S.) is likely to continue
to gain employment in the future.
1 ,
Many of Idaho s secondary industries, usually
those industries that are deemed to be
predominantly local serving, have a significant
proportion of employment that could be
classified as basic industry jobs. That is, they
are serving a population or market that is much
broader (perhaps international, national, or
regional in scale) than just the local economic
area. Some examples inClude: Washington
Group construction, the corporate headquarters
functions of Albertson s and Boise Cascade, the
Sears Regional Credit Center, Capital One
Boise Call Center, Hewlett-Packard's Boise Call
Center, or Direct TV. The expansion and
enhancement of Idaho s telecommunications
infrastructure has permitted these firms to locate
these customer service functions in areas
far-removed from the nation s large population
centers, such as Boise.
, :
It has been estimated that there were nearly
000 jobs within the Boise MSA in the year
2000 in these customer transaction centers. It is
not difficult to imagine that 90 percent of those
jobs would be classified as basic industry
employment, employment serving a larger
regional area than just the Boise or Idaho
economies. The 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Economic Forecast's potential High Growth
scenario assumes that this trend will continue in
the future. Idaho will capture a greater number
of customer transaction facilities. Most of those
new facilities will be located, as they now, near
Page 24 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
the State s concentration of population and labor
force, in Southwest Idaho and within the
Intermountain Gas Company service area.
Specifically, the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Economic Forecast's High Growth scenario
assumes that that these secondary industries in
Idaho will experience:
Transportation, Communications, and
Utilities employment in the High Case
scenario is projected to be nearly 7 000
jobs greater by the year 2030 than in the
baseline economic forecast. The High
Case scenario increases in
Transportation Industry employment are
expected to occur in Idaho s air
transportation sector. It is anticipated in
the High Case scenario that growth in air
transportation employment in Boise will
accelerate, and that a long-rumored
regional air-freight hub will be
established at the Boise Air Terminal. In
addition, a new airport for Wood River
Valley will be put on a fast track. This
new larger and safer airport facility will
attract increased air transportation
activity not only directly to the Wood
River Valley, but also indirectly with
connecting flights to Boise.
facilities in Idaho (T - Mobile, and others)
and the possible establishment of two or
three large independent electric power
production facilities , including wind
farms, in Idaho.
Wholesale and Retail Trade industry
employment in the High Case scenario is
projected to be nearly 9 400 jobs (5,8%)
jobs greater by the year 2010 than in the
baseline economic forecast. This trend
continues with the High Case scenario
projected to have nearly 14 000 and
600 more Wholesale and Retail trade
jobs than the baseline economic forecast
by the years 2020 and 2030
respectively. This difference is largely
due to the higher levels of population
and households projected in the High
Case scenario. It is also anticipated that
most of this Wholesale and Retail Trade
employment would be physically located
on the Snake River plain of Southern
Idaho near the population and household
growth.
Both the Communications and Utilities
sectors are expected to see employment
in the High Case scenario that is nearly
750 and 1 200 jobs greater than levels
projected in the baseline economic
forecast by the years 2010 and 2020
respectively. In both the
Communications and Utilities industries
a large portion of this projected increase
in employment is in reaction to faster
population and household growth in the
State ofIdaho. However, another
component of this projected higher level
of Communications and Utilities
industry employment is the assumed
continuation of the growth in the
Communications industry s "call center
Service industry employment in the
High Case scenario is projected to be
even more robust than in the already
strong outlook found in the baseline
economic forecast. In the High Case
scenario, the outlook for employment in
the Service industries is projected to be
nearly 10 100 jobs (5.0%) greater than
the Base Case outlook by the year 2010
and 40 750 jobs (15.0%) and 53 300 jobs
(15.0%) higher than the baseline
economic forecast scenario by the years
2020 and 2030, respectively. Again, a
large portion of this difference is due to
the higher levels of population and
household growth anticipated in the
High Case scenario. Hotel and motel
accommodations and recreational
activities are also classified in the
Service industry category. The High
scenario forecast assumes that tourism
travel in Idaho increases, and as a result
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page 25
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
employment in the lodging and
recreation sectors also increase.
The Service industry outlook in the High
Case economic growth scenario assumes
that there is a portion, roughly one-half
of the projected higher level of service
industry employment that is caused by
the relocation of firms new to Idaho.
Low Growth Scenario
In the potential Low Growth scenario of the
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Economic
Forecast, Idaho s manufacturing industries do
not provide the stimulus to growth has they have
in the past. Today, many ofIdaho
manufacturing firms are suffering under
conditions caused by the current economic
slowdown, as are many manufacturing
industries nationally and internationally.
However, a potential Low Growth Scenario
assumes that many of to day s struggling
manufacturing facilities will not survive the
current recession.
In the potential Low Growth scenario, the
long-term employment decline in Idaho
Lumber and Wood Products industry
accelerates. The State s Paper and Allied
products manufacturing industry takes a serious
hit to employment as its three corrugated
cardboard box plants in southern Idaho close
(Boise Cascade-Nampa, and Longview Fiber
plants'-Twin Falls and Burley, Idaho).
Changes in US. international trade policy cause
the removal of the US,s quotas on imported
sugar. With the removal of these protective
trade barriers, the U.S. domestic beet sugar
industry is not competitive with imported sugar
in the domestic and international marketplace.
Idaho is particularly affected by this change in
policy as the food processing plants involved in
producing sugar from sugar beets cease
operation in southern Idaho (at Nampa, Twin
Falls, and Paul, Idaho) and eastern Oregon
(Nyssa, Oregon), This causes the loss of nearly
500 seasonal and 1 200 full-time
food-processing jobs in southern Idaho, In
addition, the transportation industry experiences
a loss of another 350 jobs as the associated
transportation services are no longer needed.
In addition, Idaho s Food Processing industry
experiences a profound change in the
marketplace for its primary Idaho product-the
frozen processed potato in the form of a French
fry. The baby-boom generation, the largest
demographic component of the U.S. population
is aging and becoming more health conscious.
Nationwide, demand for frozen French fries
declines and productivity gains in the
production of frozen potato products' accelerated
rate of job losses the State s Food Processing
industry.
Increased restrictions and/or higher costs
associated with the grazing of cattle on federal
lands causes a decline in the number of cattle
raised in Idaho and another decline in Idaho
food processing employment.
Idaho s Mining and Agricultural industries
accelerate their rate-of-decline in terms of
output and employment.
, "
In the potential Low Growth scenario, Idaho
high-tech" manufacturing industries of
Non-electrical Machinery, Electrical and
Electronic Equipment, and Instruments are not
immune from the slower rates of economic
growth. The current recession permanently
cripples some of the State s high-tech firms.
Furthermore, Micron Technology changes
production practices at its Boise plant.
Currently, Micron Technology produces a
computer memory chip-needing no further
processing-as a final product from the Boise
fabrication plant. However, many other U.
computer chip makers only manufacture the
wafer" at their U.S. production plants. The
wafer " with its hundreds of computer chips
etched and imprinted upon them, is then shipped
to an overseas production facility for testing,
Page 26 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
final processing, and packaging. They
commonly cite lower labor costs overseas as
their primary reason for splitting the production
process in this manner. Within the 2006
Integrated Resource Plan Economic Forecast's
potential Low Growth economic forecast
scenario it is assumed that Micron Technology
changes their Boise operations in order to take
advantage of the potential labor cost savings
available overseas. In the Low Growth scenario
this policy change causes the loss of nearly
000 manufacturing jobs in Idaho Electrical
and Electronic Equipment Industry.
Specifically, the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Economic Forecast's potential Low Growth
Scenario assumes that manufacturing in Idaho
will experience:
The State s loss of jobs in the Food
Processing industry accelerates and
nearly 2 200 additional jobs are lost over
and above the 2 900 already anticipated
to be lost in the 2006 Integrated
Resource Plan Economic Forecast.
Potato processing plants would realize
most of the job losses with the
assumption that the JR Simp lot plant in
Caldwell would cut its workforce by
nearly half. In addition, it is anticipated
in the Low Case Scenario that the sugar
processing plants in Southern Idaho
would also feel increased pressure from
competition and would find it necessary
to close one or both of the plants in Paul
or Twin Falls, Idaho. The dairy industry
and its associated food processing plants
would reach a point where no further
capacity could be added due to increased
population and environmental pressures.
Employment losses in Idaho s Lumber
and Wood Products manufacturing
industry are assumed to accelerate in the
Low Case Scenario, In this scenario, the
brunt of these additional losses would be
felt in those portions of the wood products
industry that could be increasingly
vulnerable to low-cost, foreign-produced
products-the Wood Grain Molding
plants in Fruitland and Nampa, Idaho.
Idaho s Electronics Industry continues to
add jobs over the 2000 to 2030 period in
the Low Case Scenario, but at a pace
that is slower than in the baseline
economic forecast. The baseline 2006
Integrated Resource Plan Economic
Forecast projects that nearly 12 300 jobs
will be added in the Machinery and
Electronics manufacturing sectors over
the 2000 to 2030 forecast period.
The Low Case Scenario projects that the
total number of additional jobs added to
statewide employment in machinery and
Electronics manufacturing will be nearly
800, nearly 5 500 less than the baseline
economic forecast, over the 2000 to
2030 period. No exis,ting firms are
assumed to close in this scenario, on the
contrary, the forecast can accommodate
the addition of one or two Electronics
manufacturing plants equivalent to
AMI's Pocatello facility.
Idaho s employment in Stone, Clay, and
Glass Products and Fabricated Metal
Products, manufacturing both are
projected to be at lower levels in the
potential Low Case Scenario. This
projection is based upon an economic
outlook that foresees lower levels of
construction activity in the State.
The potential Low Growth Scenario s projected
manufacturing employment losses and
accelerated rates of declining employment, in
turn, dampen employment growth in the
secondary industries found in the affected and
nearby communities. Again, these secondary
industries include employment in:
Transportation, Communications, and Utilities;
Construction; Wholesale and Retail Trade;
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate; the Service
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page 27
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
industries; and local serving elements of
Government.
Specifically, the potential Low Growth
economic forecast scenario assumes that that
these secondary industries in Idaho will
experIence:
Transportation, Communications, and
Utilities employment in the potential
Low Case Scenario is projected to have
nearly 2 800 fewer jobs by the year 2030
than in the baseline economic forecast.
Lower overall economic growth
produces lower levels of demand for
transportation. A scenario with the
closure of food processing facilities
which require large amounts of truck
transportation, and a scenario where
transportation industry job losses is not
too far away.
Wholesale and Retail Trade industry
employment in the potential Low Case
Scenario is projected to be nearly 4 030
jobs (2.5%) jobs lower than the baseline
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Forecast
in the year 2010. This trend continues
with the potential Low Case Scenario
projected to have 6 080 and 7 640 fewer
Wholesale and Retail trade jobs in the
years 2020 and 2030, respectively, than
does the baseline forecast. The
difference is largely due to the lower
levels of population and household
growth found in the potential Low Case
Scenario. Nevertheless, the Wholesale
and Retail Trade industry employment
growth represented in the potential Low
Case Scenario averages 1,9% per year
over the 2000 to 2030 period.
The forecasted potential Low Case
Scenario employment in the Finance
Insurance, and Real Estate sector falls
9% below the baseline economic
forecast by the year 2010 and slips
further to 14.4% below the baseline by
the years 2020 and 2030. Again, the
difference is largely due to the lower
levels of population and household
growth found in this scenario.
The outlook for the Service industry
outlook in the potential Low Case
Scenario assumes that employment
growth in the Service sector will slow to
a 2.3% pace in the 2005 to 2010 period
from the robust 4.3% rate that the State
experienced between 2000 and 2005. By
the end of the forecast period, the year
2030, the potential Low Case Scenario
forecast of Service industry employment
is nearly 51 300 jobs below the baseline
economic outlook. However, by any
standard, the 2.6% annual average
increase in Service industry employment
over the 2000 to 2030 period that is in
the potential Low Case Scenario remains
respectable.
, ;
In the potential Low Growth Scenario, other
industry sectors economy do not provide
significant contributions to future employment
gains. Employment at the u.S. Department of
Energy s Idaho Nuclear and Environmental
Laboratory (INEEL) is cut as federal funding is
further curtailed.
( '
Mountain Home Air Force Base would
experience a slow attrition in its capability and a
gradual contraction in the number of total
assigned military personnel in the potential Low
Growth Scenario. The Gowen Field National
Guard facility in Boise would also contract from
its current level of nearly 1 000 full-time
assigned military personnel to nearly 800 in the
potential Low Growth Scenario.
, "
Historically, federal government civilian
employment in Idaho has been on a path of slow
decline for many years. Federal government
employment in the State has always had a very
large proportion dedicated to the management
and maintenance of the federal forests and
rangelands. The number of employees in these
Page 28 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
management functions has been cut to the barest
of levels over the last two decades. The
potential High Growth Scenario anticipates that
federal employment associated with the
management of federal lands will stabilize in the
future. However, the rate of growth in Idaho
federal government employment that is
primarily serving the local population would
decrease as the State s population growth slows,
Future Government employment growth a
potential Low Case Scenario is projected to be
1 % lower than the baseline economic forecast
in the year 2010 and 12.1 % below the baseline
economic forecast in the years 2020 and 2030.
Again, the difference is largely due to the lower
levels of population and household growth.
In the potential Low Case Scenario some of
Idaho s corporate headquarters would also
experience employment losses as market forces
and financial conditions force them to cut
operating expenses. In addition, corporate
mergers and/or acquisitions could force the
closure of one of the State s larger call center
operations with a resultant loss of nearly 1 000
jobs,
By the year 2010, the potential low case
scenario of the 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Economic Forecast of population and the
number of households in Idaho slips 4.
below the baseline economic forecast figures.
This represents nearly 70 100 fewer people in
the State by the year 20 I 0 and nearly 26 400
fewer households. The projected gap between
the potential Low Case Scenario and the
baseline economic forecast widens by the years
2020 and 2030.
By the years 2020 and 2030, the population of
Idaho in the potential Low Case Scenario is
projected to be nearly 250 100 and 290 000 less
respectively, than that predicted in the baseline
economic forecast. Similarly, the forecasted
number of Idaho households in the potential
Low Case Scenario is lower than the baseline
economic forecast by 94 360 in the year 2020
and 109 840 less than the baseline economic
forecast scenario in the year 2030,
OVERVIEW OF THE IDAHO
ECONOMIC FORECASTING
MODEL
The Idaho economic and demographic
forecasting model was completely revamped in
1997. This revision removed from the model the
previously forecasted concepts of gross output
by industry. Underlying this action were the
inherent statistical difficulties of using the gross
output series in subsequent (recursive) equations
and methodological uncertainties of using the
Kendrix-Jaycox method of data construction.
Today, the Idaho economic forecasting model
uses personal income and employment by
industry with increased importance. These are
the main economic drivers of the forecast.
In addition, the forecasts of primary metals
manufacturing employment, which were part of
the forecast in the past, were also discontinued,
Employment in primary metals manufacturing is
currently too small to have a significant effect
on overall employment in Idaho.
Forecasts of additional Idaho employment
incorporated into the model revision are state
government, local government, retail trade
wholesale trade, and medical services, Adding
these sectors responds to interest expressed for
these employment projections.
Lastly, the model was revised so that it will no
longer automatically produce economic
forecasts of the Idaho Power service area
economy. Before the revision, these projections
were produced as an integral part of the overall
forecast, and subsequently were shown in the
economic outlook for the state of Idaho. Our
findings were that forecasts of economic activity
within the Idaho Power service area were of
minimal interest to the public.
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page 29
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
The economic forecasting model provides
projections for Idaho employment by industry,
average wages and salaries by industry, total
wage and salary payments by industry,
population by age cohort and sex, total labor
force, and personal income by component. The
historical databases of economic and
demographic series utilized in the forecast
process may be of monthly, quarterly, or annual
frequency. The forecasts of economic and
demographic series presented herein will be of
annual frequency.
As is the case with any forecast, a great deal of
judgment is necessary and all forecasted sectors
are subject to review and possible modification.
The availability and utilization of this data at the
state or county level should provide its users
with a solid framework for increased accuracy
in performing business planning, market
evaluations, or corporate or agency budgeting.
The Idaho economic model is a simultaneous
equation model, which uses forecasts of national
inputs and demands for particular sectors of the
Idaho economy having a national or
international exposure. For example, the large
majority of output from Idaho s electronics
firms is not for consumption within Idaho,
Rather, these products will be shipped to other
areas for consumption and use. Production
decisions of Idaho s electronics firms are driven
by national product demand. Industries with
these characteristics are often called basic
industries. The economic model treats
manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and the
federal government sectors of the Idaho
economy as basic industries. Furthermore
personal income from federal military duty
within Idaho is treated as a basic industry,
although the jobs are not classified in the state
total employment
Other industries not having a national profile
and are local serving are referred to as
secondary industries. For example, many firms
provide products only into the local economy.
Demand for these products is determined by
local economic factors, rather than the national
economy.
However, in recent years this basic
industry/secondary industry distinction has
blurred. Idaho s employment in facilities such
as the Sears Credit Facility, Key Bank'
consumer loan unit, Direct TV's customer
service center, and Capital One, all in Boise
would traditionally be classified as local
serving, secondary industries. A closer
examination of these operations would reveal
that they are performing a business activity,
very little of which is local serving. The
geographic reach of these call centers is much
wider, providing their companys services by
interfacing with customers in all parts of U.
Periodic monitoring of these types of "back-
room" facilities and their functions is used to
monitor and maintain accuracy in the forecast.
The economic model makes a further distinction
in attempting to model the factors that affect the"
location decisions of a firm or industry. When a
firm evaluates a location for a plant, many cost
factors are examined: taxes, energy costs
wages, and labor availability. Therefore, the
model incorporates factors such as wage rates
and energy costs that influence location choices.
Figure I presents an overview of the model
structure. In the figure, a flow-chart depicts the
interrelationships within the model shown as if
broken into four large segments. Each segment
is examined in additional detail.
-..
In reality, the model is not solved in distinct
blocks, rather it is simultaneous with many
equations dependent upon each other. In other
words, the personal income equations are
dependent upon the population, secondary and
basic industry equations. And, in a like fashion
the secondary industry equations are dependent
upon personal income and population.
Page 30 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
Figure 1.Schematic Presentation ofthe Idaho Economic-Demographic Forecasting Model
Idaho
Basic
Industies
Industry
Equations
National
Inputs
Idaho
Secondary
Industries
Industry Models
The Idaho economic model industry equations
relate national demand (an index of industry
output) to local activity of the basic industries.
The secondary industries are a function of local
product and service demand, and are modeled as
a function of Idaho disposable income per
capita, Idaho population, and wage rates. (See
Figure 2)
In Figure 2, demand for products and services
from Idaho s basic industries are a function of
national industry demand. In addition, Idaho
wage rates by industry also are treated as a
function of national wages in each industry. In
turn, Idaho basic industry employment is a
function of local output and wage rates. The
agriculture and mining sectors of Idaho
economy could not be successfully modeled as a
function of national activity measures. Although
econometric methods were used for these
sectors of the economy, the resulting forecasts
were heavily managed with a degree of
judgment. The agricultural industry forecast
assumes that Idaho will maintain its historical
share of national agricultural output. Implicit in
that assumption is an outlook of future
agricultural industry productivity gains and slow
or no growth in Idaho agricultural cropland.
Personal
Income
Equations
Idaho
Personal
!ncom e
Population
Equations
Idaho
Population
Figure 2.FlowChart of Economic Model
Industry Equations
Idaho Employment
---
Idaho
by Basic Total Wages &
Industry Sector Salaries:
Basic
Inputs Industries
from
the Idaho Wage Rates l-1National
Forecast by Basic
Industry Sector Idaho
Personal
Income
Equations
Idaho Employment Idahoby Secondary Total Wages &Industry Sector Salaries:
Secondary
Industries
Idaho Wages &
Salaries by
Secondary
Industry Sector
Idaho
Population
Equations
Idaho secondary industry employment is a
function of local economic activity as measured
by Idaho real per capita disposable income and
industry specific real wages. As in the basic
industry equations, average wage and salary
rates by industry are a function of U.S. industry
wage trends, and employment by industry is a
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page 31
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
function of local economic activity and wagerates,
The transition to the personal income sector of
the model occurs through the concept of wage
bills , the money paid in wages and salaries in
each industry sector. Total wages and salaries
are the sum of basic and secondary industry
employment multiplied by each specific
industry s wage rate.
Per Capita Personal Income
Per capita personal income is the ratio of total
personal income, from all sources and before
income taxes, to total resident population. It is
one indicator of the economic well-being of a
state and plays an important role in any
modeling effort of regional economic activity.
National per capita personal income has been
consistently higher than that in the State of
Idaho. Stronger economic conditions in the state
have helped close the gap in the 1960 to 1980
period, and during the most recent expansion
1987 through 1995. However, despite faster
growth, Idaho s per capita income has
consistently been below the national average in
absolute terms throughout this period,
Differences between state and national per
capita income stem from several sources:
industry mix, sources of unearned income
labor-force participation rates , fertility rates , and
the age distribution of the population. Per capita
income in Idaho averages several hundred
dollars below the national average. Part of this
difference is due to Idaho s relatively large
proportion of non-working age population, the
result of Idaho s higher birth rates. This
relationship reduces total earnings relative to
older" populations of the same number.
Idaho s industry mix also contributes to the
differences in per capita personal income. The
predominance of relatively lower-paying basic
;: i
( ~
Figure 3.Idaho Economic Forecast Flow Chart of Personal Income Determination
( i
National
Inputs
Modeled
Employment
& Wage Rates
Population
Equations
Idaho Wage
& Salary
Income
Total Idaho
Labor &
Proprietor
Income
------ ----
Federal
Income
Tax Payments
State & Local
Income Tax
Payments
Idaho Disposable
Personal Income
\...
Idaho Per Capita
!----------- - - ---
--------- ---- ---- -- --- ___n- --- _n__- ---- -- - - -- --- __n_- -- J Pe rson a I I n co m e
L_- -- -- ---
---- - ----------
--- ----- ------- _n__- - n_- - ___n- _n_-_-_-- - -____n___- - - -------- - - J
Idaho Per
Capita
Disposable
Income
Page 32 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
Idaho Power Company Appendix C-Economic Forecast
industry jobs in Idaho are also a cause of the
state s lower per capita income when compared
to other regions having a higher proportion of
higher-wage rate basic industry jobs.
Idaho s total personal income is projected
within the economic model by major income
component, as depicted in Figure 3. The
forecasts of total wage and salary income is
found as the sum of the products of employment
by industry times average annual wage and
salary earnings by industry. Projections of non-
farm proprietors ' income , farm proprietors
income, and other labor income are added to the
total wage and salary income to obtain a
projection of total labor and proprietors
income. In the next step, total personal income
is obtained by adding property income
(dividends, interest, and rent) and transfer
payments to the labor and proprietors' income
subtracting contributions to Social Security, and
making a "residence adjustment." This
adjustment estimates the net difference of
income inflows and outflows resulting from
commuting employees, absentee landlords, and
proprietors.
Property income and transfer payments are
modeled as a function of projected regional
population, national property income , and
transfer payments per capita. Projected
contributions to Social Security are expressed as
a function of projected regional employment
and national contributions per employee,
Finally, per capita personal income is derived by
dividing total personal income by the projected
population.
The model further determines disposable
personal income (personal income less personal
income taxes) using an effective tax rate
equation for federal and state taxes. Per capita
disposable personal income is derived by
dividing the total disposable personal income bythe projected population.
Finally, projected disposable personal income
per capita is one of the determinants of
employment in the secondary industry sectors
therefore causing the system of equations
(employment, personal income, and population)
to be simultaneous in their solution.
Popu lation
The population forecast utilizes a cohort-
component method that forecasts components of
population change for each cohort in a five-year
age grouping; (i., ages 0 to 4 5 to 9, etc). The
components of change in population are births
deaths, and migration. Births and deaths are
projected by applying age and sex-specific
fertility rates and death rates to the base-year
population, which is carried forward into the
next year.
The migration component of population change
is projected by incorporating a total employment
and labor force forecast. Labor force
participation rates are applied to the existing
working-age population, resulting in a locally
supplied labor force. The net migration of
workers makes up the difference between the
labor force supplied by the existing population
and the labor force produced by total
employment and an "unemployment
adjustment." The migrating workers are
converted by an appropriate factor to a
migrating population. This is then distributed by
age, in accordance with historical patterns. The
migrating population is added to the "survived"
base-year population, and carried forward to the
next year.
The population model projects net migration
from the difference betwsen the labor force
supplied by the existing population and the
required labor force proj ected by the
employment forecast and the unemployment
adjustment. In actuality, some portion of the
population migrates out of the region (gross out-
migration) and others migrate in (gross in-
migration). Net migration is dependent on the
level of employment and the size of the labor
force supplied by the existing population.
2006 Integrated Resource Plan Page 33
Appendix C-Economic Forecast Idaho Power Company
Net migration is a critical component in the
growth or decline of regional or local area
population. The contribution of natural
population increases, while important, is less
subject to wide fluctuations because it is largely
dependent on a gradually changing age
structure. Even in a 20-year population forecast
the change in population and the age structure
, resulting from natural increases alone is fairly
certain because most of the population is
already born and mortality rates behave
predictably.
( )
Figure 4.Flow Chart of Population
Determination
Base Year Base Year
Population Employment
Period 1 Poci"" ,
Fertility &
--+
Economic
Survival Forecasting
Rates Model
Period 1 Pe"od 1
Surviving Employment Adjustment
Population f----for
Period'Unemployment
Period 1+1 Pe,lod 1+1
labor f-----Net
Force Migration
Period 1 PerIod 1+1
Population
Period 1+1
etc,
( ), ,' ,
Page 34 2006 Integrated Resource Plan
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