20230919Annual Compliance Filing.pdf

Avista Corp.
1411 East Mission P.O. Box 3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-0500
Telephone [phone]
Toll Free 800-727-9170
September 19, 2023
Jan Noriyuki, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
11331 W. Chinden Blvd. Bldg. 8, Ste. 201-A
Boise, Idaho 83714
RE: Case No. AVU-E-23-__
Dear Ms. Noriyuki:
Attached for filing with the Commission is Avista Corporation’s, doing business as Avista
Utilities’ (Avista or the Company), filing in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802, to
update the Company’s load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information components of
the incremental cost Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology.
Please direct any questions regarding this filing to John Lyons at 509-495-8515 or
[e-mail].
Sincerely,
/s/Shawn Bonfield
Shawn Bonfield
Sr. Manager of Regulatory Policy & Strategy
Avista Utilities
509-495-2782
[e-mail]
13
RECEIVED
Tuesday, September 19, 2023 3:27:36 PM
IDAHO PUBLIC
UTILITIES COMMISSION

Michael G. Andrea (ISB No. 8308)
Senior Counsel
Avista Corporation
1411 East Mission, MSC-17
Spokane, WA 99202
Phone: [phone]
Facsimile: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

Attorney for Avista Corporation

BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION

IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA CORPORATION’S) CASE NO. AVU-E-23-XX
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE )
THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE )
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL )
TO BE USED FOR AVOIDED COST )
CALCULATIONS )

AVISTA CORPORATION’S
COMPLIANCE FILING

1 | P a g e

I. INTRODUCTION
Avista Corporation, doing business as Avista Utilities (hereinafter Avista or
Company), at 1411 East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington, respectfully submits to
the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (Commission) this filing, in compliance with Order
Nos. 32697 and 32802 in Case No. GNR-E-11-03, to update the load forecast, natural gas
forecast, and contract information components of the incremental cost Integrated Resource
Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology.
Communications in reference to this filing should be addressed to:
Michael G. Andrea Shawn Bonfield
Senior Counsel Sr. Manager Regulatory Policy & Strategy
Avista Corporation Avista Corporation
P.O. Box 3727 P.O. Box 3727
1411 E. Mission Avenue, MSC-13 1411 E. Mission Avenue, MSC-27
Spokane, WA 99220-3727 Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone] Phone: [phone]
[e-mail] [e-mail]

II. BACKGROUND
In its final Order No. 326971 dated December 18, 2012, the Commission
determined that the inputs to the IRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed
Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) qualifying (QF) projects that
exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon
acknowledgment of the utility’s IRP filing, with the exception of the load forecast, natural
gas forecast, and QF contract changes, which are to be updated annually. The date for the
annual update was changed2 from June to October of each year. Further, in Order No.

1 Order No. 32697 page 22.
2 Order No. 32802 page 3.
2 | P a g e

32697, the Commission directed that after the filing of a utility’s IRP that a case be initiated
to determine the capacity deficiency period to be utilized in the Surrogate Avoided
Resource (SAR) Methodology.3

III. LOAD FORECAST
The Company’s most recent peak and energy forecast was developed in the summer
of 2022 and presented at the electric Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Technical Advisory
Committee (TAC) meeting for the 2023 IRP, held on October 11, 2022. The energy load
forecast escalates at 0.74 percent annual average growth rate for 2024 through 2045.
Table 1: Energy Load Forecast
Year Energy
(aMW)
2024 1,119
2025 1,122
2026 1,127
2027 1,132
2028 1,139
2029 1,144
2030 1,149
2031 1,156
2032 1,164
2033 1,171
2034 1,179
2035 1,188
2036 1,197
2037 1,206
2038 1,216
2039 1,226
2040 1,238
2041 1.250
2042 1,263
2043 1,277
2044 1,293
2045 1,309

3 Order No. 32697 page 23.
3 | P a g e

IV. NATURAL GAS FORECAST
The Company’s most recent natural gas Forward Price Curve was developed for
the 2023 Natural Gas IRP by using the blend of two national price forecasting consultant’s
most recent forecasts, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO), and forward market prices as of July 26, 2022. Please refer to Table 2 for
the natural gas price forecast.
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Year
Henry
Hub
($/mmbtu)
Stanfield
($/mmbtu)
2024 4.79 4.49
2025 4.22 3.73
2026 3.90 3.36
2027 3.75 3.23
2028 3.75 3.25
2029 3.86 3.40
2030 3.97 3.53
2031 4.09 3.68
2032 4.20 3.76
2033 4.36 3.92
2034 4.43 3.97
2035 4.52 4.07
2036 4.63 4.16
2037 4.77 4.28
2038 4.91 4.34
2039 5.08 4.48
2040 5.34 4.69
2041 5.51 4.83
2042 5.69 4.95
2043 5.92 5.17
2044 6.10 5.28
2045 6.38 5.46

4 | P a g e

V. CONTRACT ADDITIONS AND TERMINATIONS
Since the 2022 filing, Avista has signed one new long-term PURPA contract, three
Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), and two PURPA contracts are scheduled to conclude
at the end of 2023. However, the PURPA contracts ending in 2023 are currently being
negotiated for extensions. The new PURPA contract is for a new solar project with Elf
Solar. The three new PPAs are for an extension of the Lancaster natural gas combined-
cycle plant, and new contracts with Clearwater Wind and Columbia Basin Hydro. Details
concerning the dates and sizes of these contracts are included in the workpapers.

VI. MODIFIED PROCEDURE
Avista believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues presented
herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified
Procedure, i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq. If the
Commission determines that a technical hearing is necessary, the Company will be ready
to prepare and present its testimony in such hearing.

VII. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information in compliance with Order Nos. 32697, 32802 and 35274. The
Company requests that the Commission issue an order accepting its updated load forecast,
natural gas forecast, and contract information to be used in the IRP method with an
effective date of January 1, 2024.

5 | P a g e

DATED at Spokane, Washington, this 19th day of September, 2023.
AVISTA CORPORATION
/s/ Michael G. Andrea
Michael G. Andrea
Senior Counsel