20221014Application.pdf

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Avista Corp.
141 1 East Mission P.O. Box 3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-0500
Telephone [phone]
Toll Free 800-727-9170
RECEIVED
2022 oCT 14 AM 9.27
IDAHO PUBLIC
UTILITIES COIUMISSION
October L4,2022
Jan Noriyuki, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
11331 W. Chinden Blvd. Bldg. 8, Ste. 20l-A
Boise,Idaho 83714
RE: Case No. AW-E-22- td
Dear Ms. Noriyuki:
Attached for filing with the Commission is Avista Corporation's, doing business as Avista
Utilities' (Avista or the Company), filing in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802, to
update the Company's load forecast, natural gas forecast, and conffact information components of
the incremental cost lntegrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology.
Please direct any questions regarding this filing to John Lyons at 509-495-8515 or
i ohn. lyons@ avistacorp. com.
Sincerely,
lolstarr* &o$#dd
Shawn Bonfield
Sr. Manager of Regulatory Policy & Strategy
Avista Utilities
509-495-2782
shawn. bonfi eld@ avistacorp. com
Michael G. Andrea (ISB No. 8308)
Senior Counsel
Avista Corporation
14l l East Missior\ MSC-17
Spokane, WA99202
Phone: [phone]
Facsimile: (509) 77 7 -5468
Email: [e-mail]
Attorney for Avista Corporation
BETORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA CORPORATION'S)
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO IJPDATE )
THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE )
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL )
TO BE USED FOR AVOIDED COST )
CASENO. AW-E-22.1{
AVISTA CORPORATION'S
COMPLIANCE FILING
I. INTRODUCTION
Avista Corporation, doing business as Avista Utilities (hereinafter Avista or
Company), at l4I1 East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington, respectfully submits to
the Idaho Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing, in compliance with
Order Nos. 32697 and32802 in Case No. GNR-E-II-O3, to update the load forecast,
nafural gas forecast, and contract infonnation components of the incremental cost
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology
Communications in reference to this filing should be addressed to:
Michael G. Andrea
Senior Counsel
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
1411 E. MissionAvenue, MSC-13
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
michael. andrea(E avi stacorp. com
Shawn Bonfield
Sr. Manager, Regulatory Policy
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
l4l I E. Mission Avenue, MSC-27
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
Shawn. Bonfi eld(davistacorp. com
II. BACKGROUND
In its final Order No. 32697r dated December 18, 2012, the Commission
determined that the inputs to the IRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed
Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) qualiffing (QF) projects that
exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon
acknowledgment of the utility's IRP filing, with the exception of the load forecast, natural
gas forecast, and QF contract changes, which are to be updated annually. The date for the
annual update was changed2 from June to October of each year. Further, in Order No.
I Order No. 32697 page 22.
2 OrderNo.32802page3,
I lPage
32697,the Commission directed that after the filing of a utility's IRP that a case be initiated
to determine the capacity deficiency period to be utilized in the Surrogate Avoided
Resource (SAR) Methodology. 3
TII. LOAD FORECAST
The Company's most recent peak and energy forecast was developed in the surlmer
of 2022 and presented at the electric lntegrated Resource Plan (IRP) Technical Advisory
Committee (TAC) meeting for the 2023 IRP, held on October 1I,2022. The energy load
forecast escalates at 0.74 percent annual average growth rate for 2023 through 2045.
Table l: Enerry Load Forecast
Year Energy
(aMw)
2023 l,ll2
2024 1.1 19
202s 1.122
2026 1.127
2027 1"132
2028 I,139
2029 1,144
2030 1.149
2031 1.156
2032 1,164
2033 l,l7L
2034 1,179
2035 1.188
2036 1.t97
2037 1,206
2038 1,216
2039 1.226
2040 1.238
2041 1.250
2042 1,263
2043 t.277
2lP age
3 OrderNo. 32697 page23.
2044 1,293
2045 1,309
IV. NATTJRAL GAS FORECAS1
The Company's most recent natural gas Forward Price Curve was developed using
the blend of two national price forecasting consultant's most recent forecasts, the U.S.
Energy lnformation Administration's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), and forward market
prices as of July 26, 2022. Please refer to Table 2 for the natural gas price forecast.
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Year
Henry
Hub
($/mmbtu)
Stanfield
($/rnmbtu)
2023 5.92 s.70
2024 4.79 4.49
2025 4.22 3.73
2026 3.90 3.36
2027 3.75 3.23
2028 3.75 3.25
2029 3.86 3.40
2030 3.97 3.53
2031 4.09 3.68
2032 4.20 3.76
2033 4.36 3.92
2034 4.43 3.97
2035 4.s2 4.07
2036 4.63 4.16
2037 4.77 4.28
2038 4.91 4.34
2039 5.08 4.48
2040 5.34 4.69
204r 5.51 4.83
2042 5.69 4.95
2043 5.92 5.17
2044 6.10 s.28
2045 6.38 s.46
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V. CONTRACT ADDITIONS AI\D TERMINATIONS
Since the 2021 filingAvista has signed eight new long-term PURPA contracts, one
Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), and one PURPA contract is scheduled to conclude at
the end of 2022. The new PURPA contracts include six renewed contracts with existing
resources including Deep Creek Energy, Jim Ford Creek Hydro, John Day Creek Hydro,
Plummer Saw Mill, Upriver Dam and Waste to Energy. Two new PURPA contracts were
signed with the University of Idaho for their combined heat and power and solar projects.
One PURPA contract with Deep Creek Energy currently expires at the end of 2022. T\e
PPA is with Chelan PUD. Details concerning the dates and sizes of these contracts are
included in the workpapers.
VI. MODIFIED PROCEDTIRE
Avista believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues presented
herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified
Procedure, i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq. If the
Commission determines that a technical hearing is necessary, the Company will be ready
to prepare and present its testimony in such hearing.
YII. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information in compliance with Order Nos. 32697, 32802 afi 35274. The
Company respectfully requests that the Commission issue an order accepting its updated
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lod foreeast, natural gas forecas! and oontact information to be used inthe RP metbod
with an effective date of Janrary L2A23.
DATED at Spokane, Washington, ftis 146 day ofoctober, 2022.
AVISTA CORPORATION
lsl Miehael G. Andrea
Michael G. An&ea
Seuior Counsel
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