20211013Application.pdf

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Avista Corp.
1411 East Mission P.O.Box3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-0500
Telephone [phone]
Toll Free 800-727-9170
October 13,202L
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f)Jan Noriyuki, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
ll33l W. Chinden Blvd. Bldg. 8, Ste. 201-A
Boise,Idaho 83714
RE: Case No. AW-E-2I-jg
Dear Ms. Noriyuki:
Attached for filing with the Commission is Avista Corporation's, doing business as Avista
Utilities' (Avista or the Company) filing in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802, to
update the Company's load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information components of
the incremental cost Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology.
The Company has not included in this filing the capacity deficiency date per recommendation
number four (a) in Case No. AVU-E-19-01. Avista will be filing, under separate letter the
establishment of its capacity deficiency period to be used for avoided cost calculations. The
Company will also file for approval of an updated capacrty deficiency period after
acknowledgme,nt of its 2021 IRP, to establish a new deficiency date for the SAR avoided capacity
cost.
Please direct any questions regarding this filing to John Lyons at 509-495-8515 or
i ohn. lyons(E avi stacorp. com.
Sincerely,
lolsta*'n SolW
Shawn Bonfield
Sr. Manager of Regulatory Policy & Strategy
Avista Utilities
509-495-2782
shawn. bonfi eld(@ avistacom. com
Michael G. Andrea (ISB No. 8308)
Senior Counsel
Avista Corporation
141I East Mission, MSC-I7
Spokane, W499202
Phone: (509\495-2564
Facsimile: (509) 77 7 -5468
Email: [e-mail]
Attorney for Avista Corporation
BEFORE THE IDAHO PTJBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA CORPORATION'S)
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO I'PDATE )
THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE )
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL )
TO BE USED FOR AVOIDED COST )
CASE NO. AW-E-2l-XX
AVISTA CORPORATION'S
COMPLIANCE FILING
I. INTRODUCTION
Avista Corporation, doing business as Avista Utilities (hereinafter Avista or
Company), at l4ll East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington, respectfully submits to
the ldaho Public Utilities Commission (Commission) this filing in compliance with Order
Nos. 32697 and32802 in Case No. GNR-E-11-03, to update the load forecast, natural gas
forecast, and contract information components of the incremental cost Integrated Resource
Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology
Communications in reference to this filing should be addressed to
Michael G. Andrea
Senior Counsel
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
l4l I E. Mission Avenue, MSC-13
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
michael. andrea@ avistacorp.com
Shawn Bonfield
Sr. Manager or Regulatory Policy
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
l4l I E. Mission Avenue, MSC-27
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
Shawn. Bonfi eld@ avistacorp. com
II. BACKGROUND
ln its final Order No. 32697t dated December 18, 2012, the Commission
determined that the inputs to the IRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed
Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) qualiffing (QF) projects that
exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon
acknowledgment of the utility's IRP filing, with the exception of the load forecast, natural
gas forecast, and QF contract changes, which are to be updated annually. The date for the
annual update was changed from June to October of each year.z Further, in Order No.
I Order No. 32697 page 22.
2 Order No. 32802 page 3.
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32697, the Commission directed that after the filing of a utility's IRP that a case be initiated
to determine the capacity deficiency period to be utilized in the Surrogate Avoided
Resource (SAR) Methodology.3 The Company will file for approval of an updated capacity
deficiency period upon acknowledgement of its 2021 Electric IRP.
III. LOAD FORECAST
The Company's most recent energy forecast was developed for the 2021Electric
IRP. The energy load forecast escalates at0.25 percent annual average growth rate for 2021
through 2045. Avista plans to have a new load forecast in November 2021.
Table l: Energy Load Forecast
Year Energy
(aI\dW')
2022 1.102
2023 1.106
2024 1.107
2025 1.114
2026 t-tt7
2027 l-l l9
2028 t-t2t
2029 t-124
2030 t-125
2031 t-127
2032 1,128
2033 1.130
2034 l.l3 I
203s 1.133
2036 1.135
2037 1.137
2038 1.139
2039 1.141
20/,O t.t4
zmt 1.144
20/.2 1.151
20/.3 I.155
2044 1.150
204s 1.166
3 OrderNo. 32697 page23
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TV. NATURAL GAS FORECASI
The Company's most recent Forward Price Curve was developed using the blend
of two national price forecasting consultant's most recent forecasts, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), and forward market prices
as of June 30,2020. Please refer to Table 2 for the natural gas price forecast.
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Year
HenryHub
($/mmbtu)
Stanfield
($/mmbtu)
2022 2.43 1.90
2023 2.50 1.79
2024 2.68 1.90
2025 2.97 2.2
2026 3.39 2.67
2027 3.56 2.89
2028 3.75 3.09
2029 3.94 3.26
2030 4.10 3.43
2031 4.22 3.60
2032 4.39 3.74
2033 4.63 4.00
2034 4.85 4.22
2035 5.02 4.34
2036 5.19 4.50
2037 5.42 4.72
2038 ).55 4.88
2039 s.82 4.23
2040 6.02 5.30
2Mt 6.12 5.44
2042 6.33 s.61
2043 6.55 5.89
2044 6.75 6.18
2045 7.01 6.40
V. CONTRACT ADDITIONS AND TERMINATIONS
Since the 2020 filing Avista's has signed two new long-tenn PURPA contacts and
two Power Purchase Agreements (PPA). The PURPA contracts include extensions of
existing contracts for the Spokane County Waste Water Digester from September I,202I
through August 31,2030 and the Stimson Lumber biomass facility from January 1,2022
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through December 31,2023. The first PPA is for a 5 percent slice of Chelan PUD's hydro
facilities (approximately 88 MW). Under normal water conditions the combined ouput is
expected to be 51.4 aMW annually from January 1,2024 through December 31,2033.The
second PPA is a Special Contact with Inland Empire Paper that includes a demand
response program. The Special Contract runs from October 1,2021 through October 31,
2031, with costs associated with the contract being recovered from only Washington
customers. For the demand response program, it is voluntary from October 1,2021through
October 31,2026 and binding fromNovember 1,2026 through the duration of the contract.
VI. MODTFIED PROCEDURE
Avista believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues presented
herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified
Procedure, i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq. If the
Commission determines that a technical hearing is necessary, the Company will be ready
to prepare and present its testimony in such hearing.
vrr. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information in compliance with OrderNos. 32697 and32802 and requests that the
Commission issue an order accepting its updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information.
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DATED at Spokane, Washington, this l3m day of October 2021.
AVISTA CORPORATION
lsl Michael G. Andrea
Michael G. Andrea
Senior Counsel
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