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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20201125Exhibit 1 - Avista 2018-2019 Electric Impact Evaluations.pdfExhibit No. 1: Avista 2018 and 2019 Electric Impact Evaluations Exhibit No. 1: Avista 2018 and 2019 Electric Impact Evaluations PY 2018 Idaho Electric Impact Evaluation Report June 1, 2019 Prepared for: Avista Corporation 1411 East Mission Avenue Spokane, WA 99202 Prepared by: Jeff Cropp Mitt Jones Christie Amero Rachel Fernandez Jon Lee i Table of Contents Portfolio Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 Evaluation Methodology and Activities ................................................................................................. 1 Summary of Impact Evaluation Results ................................................................................................. 1 Conclusions and Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 2 Nonresidential Impact Evaluation ......................................................................................................... 4 Program Summary ................................................................................................................................. 4 Program Participation Summary ............................................................................................................ 4 Evaluation Goals and Objectives ............................................................................................................ 6 Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Methodology ................................................................................... 6 Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Results ............................................................................................. 8 Nonresidential Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................... 10 Residential Impact Evaluation ............................................................................................................. 12 Program Summary ............................................................................................................................... 12 Program Participation Summary .......................................................................................................... 12 Evaluation Goals and Objectives .......................................................................................................... 13 Residential Impact Evaluation Methodology ....................................................................................... 13 Residential Impact Evaluation Results ................................................................................................. 14 Residential Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................. 16 Low Income Impact Evaluation ........................................................................................................... 18 Program Summary ............................................................................................................................... 18 Program Participation Summary .......................................................................................................... 18 Evaluation Goals and Objectives .......................................................................................................... 18 Low Income Impact Evaluation Methodology ..................................................................................... 18 Low Income Impact Evaluation Results ............................................................................................... 19 Low Income Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................ 19 Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation ........................................................................................................ 20 Program Summary ............................................................................................................................... 20 Program Participation Summary .......................................................................................................... 20 Evaluation Goals and Objectives .......................................................................................................... 21 Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Methodology .................................................................................. 22 ii Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Results ............................................................................................ 22 Fuel Efficiency Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................ 24 Tables Table 1. Electric Program Evaluation Activities (PY 2018) ............................................................................ 1 Table 2. Reported and Verified Electric Savings (PY 2018) ........................................................................... 2 Table 3. Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Savings (PY 2018) ................................................................... 5 Table 4. Nonresidential Prescriptive Participation Goals by Equipment Rebated ....................................... 5 Table 5. Nonresidential Prescriptive Participation by Project (PY 2018) ...................................................... 6 Table 6. Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Savings (PY 2018) .................................................................. 6 Table 7. Idaho Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Evaluation Sample ....................................................... 8 Table 8. Idaho Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Evaluation Sample ....................................................... 8 Table 9. Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Impact Findings ..................................................................... 9 Table 10. Nonresidential Prescriptive Evaluation Summary of Discrepancies ............................................. 9 Table 11. Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Impact Findings (PY 2018) ................................................. 10 Table 12. Nonresidential Site Specific Evaluation Summary of Discrepancies ........................................... 10 Table 13. Residential Prescriptive Reported Electric Savings (PY 2018) ..................................................... 12 Table 14. Residential Prescriptive Participation (PY 2018) ......................................................................... 13 Table 15. Multifamily Direct Install Reported Electric Savings ................................................................... 13 Table 16. Residential Prescriptive Electric Impact Document Review ....................................................... 14 Table 17. Residential Prescriptive Database Review Electric Impact Findings ........................................... 15 Table 18. Residential Prescriptive Electric Impact Document Review Realization Rates ........................... 15 Table 19. Residential Prescriptive Electric Impact Findings ....................................................................... 16 Table 20. Low Income Reported Savings (PY 2018) .................................................................................... 18 Table 21. Low Income Participation (PY 2018) ........................................................................................... 18 Table 22. Low Income Electric Impact Findings .......................................................................................... 19 Table 23. Nonresidential Site Specific Fuel Efficiency Electric Savings (PY 2018) ....................................... 20 Table 24. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Reported Electric Savings (PY 2018) ............................. 21 Table 25. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Reported Participation (PY 2018) ................................. 21 Table 26. Low Income Fuel Efficiency Reported Electric Savings (PY 2018) ............................................... 21 Table 27. Low Income Fuel Efficiency Participation (PY 2018) ................................................................... 21 Table 28. Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Findings ............................................................. 23 Table 29. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Findings ............................................... 23 iii Table 30. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Document Review Realization Rate ..... 23 Table 31. Low Income Fuel Efficiency Program Electric Impact Findings ................................................... 23 Figure Figure 1. Residential Impact Process .......................................................................................................... 14 1 Portfolio Executive Summary For several decades, Avista Corporation has been administering demand-side management programs to reduce electricity and natural gas energy use for its portfolio of customers. Most of these programs have been implemented in-house, but a few have external implementers. Avista contracted with Cadmus to complete process and impact evaluations of its PY 2018 and PY 2019 electric demand-side management programs in Idaho. This report presents our electric impact evaluation findings for PY 2018. Cadmus did not apply net-to-gross adjustments to savings values, except in cases where deemed energy savings values already incorporate net-to-gross as a function of the market baseline. Evaluation Methodology and Activities Cadmus conducted the Idaho portfolio evaluation using a variety of methods and activities, shown in Table 1. Table 1. Electric Program Evaluation Activities (PY 2018) Sector Program Document/Database Review Verification/Metering Site Visits Nonresidential Prescriptive (Multiple) ü ü Site Specific ü ü Residential Simple Steps, Smart Savings™ ü -- HVAC ü -- Shell ü -- ENERGY STAR® Homes ü -- Multifamily Direct Install ü -- Low Income Low Income ü -- Fuel Efficiency Site Specific (Nonresidential) ü -- Prescriptive (Residential) ü -- Low Income ü -- Summary of Impact Evaluation Results Overall, the Idaho electric portfolio achieved a 98% realization rate and acquired 29,805,007 kWh in annual verified savings (Table 2). Cadmus collected the Avista-reported savings through database extracts from Avista’s Customer Care and Billing (residential) and InforCRM (nonresidential) databases and from data provided by third-party implementers to determine the verified savings that represent our findings. In the second year of the two-year evaluation cycle (PY 2019), Cadmus will conduct utility billing regression analyses to evaluate the most accurate energy savings for most residential programs. 2 Table 2. Reported and Verified Electric Savings (PY 2018) Sector Reported Savings (kWh) Verified Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Nonresidential 22,832,307 22,630,556 99% Residential 5,400,520 5,108,673 95% Low Income 228,498 252,699 111% Fuel Efficiency 1,824,345 1,813,079 99% Total 30,285,671 29,805,007 98% Conclusions and Recommendations During the PY 2018 evaluation, Cadmus identified several areas for improvement, outlined below by sector. Nonresidential Conclusions and Recommendations While some individual project results varied, the overall nonresidential sector performed strongly in PY 2018. Most of the projects Cadmus sampled for evaluation were well-documented and matched what we found during site visit verifications. Cadmus has two recommendations for improving the nonresidential sector energy savings: • Ensure that the final reported savings calculations reflect the most up-to-date project details, including post-installation verification photos, equipment submittals, and invoices. During two project verifications, Cadmus found different installed equipment sizes, quantities, or performance ratings than used in the reported savings calculations. • Ensure that power metered data and pressure and airflow trend data collected for compressed air projects are analyzed on a day-type approach (instead of taking the overall averages for the metered period) to improve the accuracy of the energy-savings calculations. The day-type analysis method is recommended by the Department of Energy’s Advanced Manufacturing Office and Compressed Air Challenge® and is used in the AIRMaster+ free online software tool.1 This method provides a more granular estimation of the baseline and installed system flow rates, performance, and energy use. Residential Conclusions and Recommendations During the evaluation, Avista confirmed that unit energy savings (UES) values used to calculate reported savings for numerous residential measures had not been updated to match the 2018 Avista technical reference manual (TRM) UES values. This was especially pronounced in the residential HVAC program, where reported savings under-represented savings for heat pump measures. Under the direction of Avista, Cadmus adjusted reported savings for these measures to match the 2018 TRM UES values. 1 Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. April 10, 2014. “AIRMaster+ Motor Driven Systems.” https://www.energy.gov/eere/amo/articles/airmaster 3 Based on reported savings, the ENERGY STAR Homes program achieved 253% of goal, but reported participation and verified savings both showed that the program achieved approximately 72% of goal, which indicates that reported savings values are well over the current TRM UES values. Cadmus offers three recommendations regarding Avista’s residential electric programs: • Ensure that reported savings for all prescriptive measures are calculated using the current TRM or current 2017 Regional Technical Forum2 (RTF) UES values. • Continue to encourage the adoption of efficient lighting through the Simple Steps, Smart Savings program. The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Residential Building Stock Assessment II shows that roughly 40% of installed lamps in single family homes in Washington and Idaho are incandescents or halogens. • The Multifamily Direct Install (MFDI) program has proven to be an efficient, effective mechanism for installing high-efficiency lighting and aerators in multifamily units. The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Residential Building Stock Assessment II “Multifamily Buildings Report” estimated that 44% of lighting in multifamily units use incandescent or halogen technology. Cadmus recommends to focus on replacing high-use, low-efficiency lamps where practical, to maximize program cost-effectiveness while keeping savings high. Fuel Efficiency Recommendations Cadmus recommends that Avista update reported residential savings for fuel efficiency measures to use current TRM UES values, particularly for measures where the differences are especially notable, such as conversions to natural gas water heaters and natural gas wall furnaces. 2 Regional Technical Forum. 2017. Standard Protocols. https://rtf.nwcouncil.org/standard-protocols 4 Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Through its nonresidential portfolio of programs, Avista promotes the purchase of high-efficiency equipment for commercial and industrial utility customers. Avista provides rebates to partially offset the difference in cost between high-efficiency equipment and standard equipment. Program Summary Avista completed and incented 685 nonresidential electric measures in Idaho in PY 2018 and reported total electric energy savings of 22,832,307 kWh. Through the nonresidential sector, Avista offers incentives for high-efficiency equipment and controls through three program paths: Prescriptive, Site Specific, and Fuel Efficiency. The Prescriptive program path is selected for smaller, straightforward equipment installations that generally have similar operating characteristics (such as lighting, simple HVAC systems, food service equipment, and variable frequency drives). The Site Specific program path is reserved for more unique projects that require custom savings calculations and technical assistance from Avista’s account executives (such as compressed air, process equipment and controls, and comprehensive lighting retrofits). Fuel Efficiency measures are part of the Site Specific program path, but involve a combination of electric savings and natural gas penalties. These measures typically involve replacing electric space heating or water heating systems with natural gas equipment. Please refer to the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section for Cadmus’ evaluation methodology and findings for nonresidential Fuel Efficiency measures. Program Participation Summary This section summarizes nonresidential sector participation and progress toward PY 2018 goals through the Prescriptive and Site Specific program paths. Nonresidential Prescriptive Program Path Table 3 shows electric energy savings goals assigned to Avista’s nonresidential Prescriptive program path for PY 2018 as well as reported savings and a comparison between reported savings and goals. 5 Table 3. Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Savings (PY 2018) Program Name Savings Goals (kWh) Savings Reported (kWh) Percentage of Goal Interior Lighting 6,635,450 8,038,814 121% Exterior Lighting 1,405,118 4,243,826 302% Shell Measure 629 929 148% Green Motors 45,180 42,466 94% Motor Control (Variable Frequency Drives [VFD]) 75,595 112,931 149% Fleet Heat 8,000 0 0% Food Service Equipment 94,730 8,527 9% AirGuardian 18,000 0 0% Energy Smart Grocera 724,348 3,402 0% Total 9,007,050 12,450,896 138% a The Energy Smart Grocer savings goal includes Site Specific Energy Smart Grocer measures. The Site Specific portion constitutes approximately 10% of the overall goal. Table 4 shows participation goals by rebated equipment quantity, as provided by Avista. The PY 2018 nonresidential tracking database extract listed individual projects, but did not include rebated equipment quantity. For reference, Table 5 provides participation by unique application numbers. Table 4. Nonresidential Prescriptive Participation Goals by Equipment Rebated Program Type Planned Participation Interior Lighting 26,904 Exterior Lighting 4,302 Shell Measure 325 Green Motors 18 Motor Control (VFD) 55 Fleet Heat 1 Food Service Equipment 18 AirGuardian 3 Energy Smart Grocera 2,097 a The Energy Smart Grocer goal includes Site Specific Energy Smart Grocer participants. 6 Table 5. Nonresidential Prescriptive Participation by Project (PY 2018) Program Type Participation Reporteda Interior Lighting 315 Exterior Lighting 273 Shell Measure 3 Green Motors 11 Motor Control (VFD) 3 Fleet Heat 0 Food Service Equipment 4 AirGuardian 0 Energy Smart Grocer 1 Total 610 a A participant is defined as a unique application number. Nonresidential Site Specific Program Path Table 6 shows electric savings goals assigned to the Site Specific program path in Avista’s nonresidential sector for PY 2018, as well as reported savings. Note that the table does not include reported electric savings for the Fuel Efficiency sector, such as those associated with the Multifamily Market Transformation program. Table 6. Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Savings (PY 2018) Program Path Savings Goals (kWh) Savings Reported (kWh) Percentage of Goal Site Specific 4,000,000 10,381,411 260% Evaluation Goals and Objectives For the PY 2018 quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, Cadmus conducted nonresidential impact activities to determine verified savings for most programs. Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Methodology To evaluate impact evaluation savings for the PY 2018 nonresidential sector, Cadmus performed several activities in two waves: • Selected an evaluation sample and requested project documentation from Avista • Performed project documentation review • Prepared on-site M&V plans • Performed site visits and collected on-site data (such as trend data, photos, and operating schedules) • Used site visit findings to calculate verified savings by measure • Applied realization rates to total reported savings population to determine overall verified savings 7 The program context, along with Cadmus’ sample design, document review, and on-site verification activities, is described in more detail below. Program Context As the first step of our evaluation activities, we gained an understanding of the programs and measures being evaluated. Specifically, Cadmus explored documents and data records: • Avista’s annual business plans, which detail processes and energy savings justifications • Project documents from external sources (customers, program consultants, and implementation contractors) Based on the initial review, Cadmus outlined the distribution of program contributions to the overall portfolio of programs. In addition, the review allowed us to understand the sources for UES for each measure offered through the programs, along with the sources for energy-savings algorithms and the internal quality assurance and quality control processes for large nonresidential sector projects. Following this review, Cadmus designed the sample strategy for the impact evaluation activities, as discussed in the following section. Sample Design We based the first evaluation sample on program data from January 2018 to April 2018, and we based the second evaluation sample on program data from May 2018 through December 2018. As a guideline, Cadmus used the proposed, overall PY 2018 and PY 2019 nonresidential sample sizes by subprogram in the M&V plan, seeking to complete approximately one-quarter of the sample during the first wave and another one-quarter during the second wave. For each activity wave, we broke down submitted program applications by path and measure (such as Site Specific shell measure, Prescriptive lighting, or Prescriptive motor controls), allowing us to select the highest-savings applications in each category with certainty. For applications with reported savings greater than 1% of total savings by category, Cadmus assigned random numbers and sampled randomly. We removed applications with less than 1% of total savings by category from the sample consideration, except where another application at the same location or facility was previously selected (and where we could assess both applications with one site visit, which is a cost-effective verification strategy even if the second application represents minimal claimed savings). Cadmus sampled randomly selected sites across both Washington and Idaho since Avista’s programs are implemented similarly in both states. We pooled the results from the randomly selected sites to calculate a realization rate by stratum that we applied to projects in both states. We applied verified savings for sites selected with certainty only to the state in which they had been implemented. Table 7 summarizes the Idaho nonresidential Prescriptive program path evaluation sample. Across both states, Cadmus sampled 40 Prescriptive applications at 34 unique sites. Of the sampled applications, we selected 21 for certainty review based on the scale of savings, measure type, or location, and we 8 selected the remaining 19 applications randomly. There was no participation in the AirGuardian and Fleet Heat programs in Idaho in PY 2018. Table 7. Idaho Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Evaluation Sample Program Type Applications Sampled Sampled Savings (kWh) Percentage of Reported Savings Interior Lighting 6 2,311,797 29% Exterior Lighting 2 110,360 3% Shell Measure 1 198 21% Green Motors 4 18,678 44% Motor Control (VFD) 2 104,755 93% Fleet Heat 0 0 N/A Food Service Equipment 0 0 0% AirGuardian 0 0 N/A Energy Smart Grocer 1 3,402 100% Nonresidential Prescriptive 16 2,549,190 20% Table 8 summarizes the Idaho nonresidential Site Specific program path evaluation sample. Across both states, Cadmus sampled 18 Site Specific applications at 15 unique sites. Of the sampled applications, we selected 12 for certainty review based on the scale of savings, measure type, or location, and we selected the remaining six applications randomly. Table 8. Idaho Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Evaluation Sample Program Path Applications Sampled Sampled Savings (kWh) Percentage of Reported Savings Site Specific 7 7,648,853 74% Document Review We requested and reviewed project documentation for each sampled application and prepared M&V plans to guide our site visits. Project documentation typically included incentive applications, calculation tools (usually based on the 2017 RTF), invoices, equipment specification sheets, and post-inspection reports. On-Site Verification Cadmus performed site visits at 46 unique nonresidential locations to assess electric savings for 58 unique Prescriptive and Site Specific measures (not including Fuel Efficiency measures). Site visits involved verifying the installed equipment type, make and model numbers, operating schedules, and setpoints, as applicable. We did not consider it necessary to conduct power metering or light logging for PY 2018 site visits. Cadmus collected two weeks of trend data for two of the Site Specific industrial process measures at one industrial site. We used the project documentation review and on-site findings to adjust the reported savings calculations where necessary. Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Results This section summarizes the nonresidential sector Prescriptive and Site Specific program paths’ electric impact evaluation results for PY 2018. 9 Nonresidential Prescriptive Programs Table 9 shows reported and verified electric energy savings for Avista’s Nonresidential sector Prescriptive program path and the realization rates between verified and reported savings for PY 2018. The overall nonresidential sector Prescriptive program path electric realization rate was 100%. Table 9. Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Impact Findings Program Type Reported Savings (kWh) Verified Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Interior Lighting 8,038,814 8,012,238 100% Exterior Lighting 4,243,826 4,243,826 100% Shell Measure 929 929 100% Green Motors 42,466 42,870 101% Motor Control (VFD) 112,931 113,171 100% Fleet Heat 0 0 100% Food Service Equipment 8,527 8,527 100% AirGuardian 0 0 100% Energy Smart Grocer 3,402 3,402 100% Nonresidential Prescriptive 12,450,896 12,424,964 100% Of the evaluated applications, Cadmus identified discrepancies for seven based on the site visit and project documentation review. Table 10 summarizes the reasons for discrepancies between reported and verified savings. Table 10. Nonresidential Prescriptive Evaluation Summary of Discrepancies Program Type Number of Occurrences Savings Impact Reason(s) for Discrepancy Interior Lighting 2 ê Cadmus reduced the lighting fixture in-service rate for two projects to account for incented fixtures that were on the site but in storage. 1 ê Savings in project documentation were slightly lower than reported savings in program database. 1 é Cadmus accounted for additional savings from delamping for reported 4- lamp LED fixtures that only had two lamps. The participant had removed two lamps per fixture due to brightness. Green Motor Rewind 2 é Reported savings for two projects referenced the 2017 RTF. Cadmus applied deemed motor savings from the 2018 TRM workbook. Motor Control (VFD) 1 ê Cadmus reduced the reported quantity of 2.5 horsepower return air fans with VFDs from three to one and added two 3 horsepower return air fans with VFDs. Nonresidential Site Specific Program Table 11 shows reported and verified electric energy savings for Avista’s PY 2018 nonresidential sector Site Specific program path, as well as a comparison between verified and reported savings for PY 2018. The overall Site Specific program path electric realization rate was 98%. Note that the table does not include reported and verified electric savings for measures in the Fuel Efficiency path. 10 Table 11. Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Impact Findings (PY 2018) Program Path Reported Savings (kWh) Verified Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Site Specific 10,381,411 10,205,592 98% Of the evaluated applications, Cadmus identified discrepancies in five based on the site visit and project documentation review. Table 12 summarizes the reasons for discrepancies between reported and verified savings. Table 12. Nonresidential Site Specific Evaluation Summary of Discrepancies Project Type Number of Occurrences Savings Impact Reason(s) for Discrepancy Exterior Lighting 1 ê The site installed a higher quantity of exterior LED fixtures. The reported savings in database did not match the implementer’s submitted calculation workbook. 1 ê The site installed fewer LED pole lighting fixtures and more LED wall pack fixtures than reported. Industrial Process 1 é The site converted two pressure roll vacuum units from double zone to single zone units, eliminating the need for one of the four 500-horsepower vacuum pumps. Reported savings calculations assumed the pump motor to be 100% efficient. Cadmus adjusted the savings calculations to incorporate losses for a conservative, high-efficiency 500-horsepower motor (95.8%). Compressed Air 1 ê The site replaced two fixed-speed air compressors with two 350-horsepower variable speed rotary-screw air compressors. Project documentation included post-installation power and airflow metered data. Cadmus updated the reported savings calculations by breaking out pre- and post-period airflow and baseline system performance on a weekday basis, rather than an overall metered period basis. Although the difference in average overall airflow was minimal between the verified and reported methodology, there were days (such as Wednesdays and Fridays) that differed by 175 CFM to 230 CFM from reported. This difference had a significant impact on the performance of the baseline air compressors. Interior Lighting 1 é Cadmus included the calculated cooling load electric energy savings in the interim verified savings. These savings were calculated in the project documentation but not included in the reported savings. Nonresidential Conclusions and Recommendations The nonresidential sector achieved total verified electric energy savings of 22,631 MWh in PY 2018 with a combined realization rate of 99%. The nonresidential sector also exceeded the combined Prescriptive and Site Specific program paths’ electric savings goal of 13,007 MWh by 74%. While some individual project results varied, the overall nonresidential sector performed strongly in PY 2018. Most of the projects Cadmus sampled for evaluation were well-documented and matched what we found during site visit verification. Cadmus has two recommendations for improving the nonresidential sector energy savings: • Ensure that the final reported savings calculations reflect the most up-to-date project details, including post-installation verification photos, equipment submittals, and invoices. During two 11 project verifications, Cadmus found different installed equipment sizes, quantities, or performance ratings than used in the reported savings calculations. • Ensure that power metered data and pressure and airflow trend data collected for compressed air projects are analyzed on a day-type approach (instead of taking the overall averages for the metered period) to improve the accuracy of the energy-savings calculations. The day-type analysis method is recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Manufacturing Office and Compressed Air Challenge® and is used in the AIRMaster+ free online software tool. This method provides a more granular estimation of the baseline and installed system flow rates, performance, and energy use. 12 Residential Impact Evaluation Cadmus designed the residential sector impact evaluation to verify reported program participation and energy savings. We used data collected and reported in the tracking database, online application forms, Avista TRM and RTF savings review, and applicable updated deemed savings values. Program Summary Avista completed and incented 250,234 residential electric measures or units in Idaho in PY 2018 and reported total electric energy savings of 5,400,520 kWh, not including participation and savings from Fuel Efficiency measures, which are included below in the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section. The residential programs comprise two primary paths—Prescriptive and MFDI. The Prescriptive path includes Simple Steps, Smart Savings, which encourages consumers to purchase and install high-quality LEDs, light fixtures, and energy-efficient showerheads; the Residential HVAC program, which incents high-efficiency heating and cooling equipment; the Residential Shell program, which provides rebates to encourage customers to install high-efficiency windows and storm windows; and the ENERGY STAR Homes program, which offers 15% to 25% energy savings relative to state energy code. Through the MFDI program, Avista provides free direct-install measures to multifamily residences (of five units or more) and common areas. Program Participation Summary This section summarizes residential sector participation and progress toward PY 2018 goals for the residential Prescriptive and residential MFDI programs. Residential Prescriptive Programs Table 13 shows savings goals assigned to Avista’s residential sector Prescriptive programs for PY 2018, as well as reported savings and the goal portion achieved in PY 2018. Table 13. Residential Prescriptive Reported Electric Savings (PY 2018) Program Savings Goals (kWh) Savings Reported (kWh) Percentage of Goal Simple Steps, Smart Savings 1,326,717 3,693,056 278% HVAC 730,543 765,230 105% Shell 60,854 95,748 157% ENERGY STAR Homes 46,144 116,567 253% Residential Prescriptive Total 2,164,258 4,670,601 216% Table 14 summarizes participation goals and reported participation in Avista’s residential sector Prescriptive programs for PY 2018, along with the percentage of goal achieved. 13 Table 14. Residential Prescriptive Participation (PY 2018) Program Participation Goals Participation Reported Percentage of Goal Simple Steps, Smart Savingsa 88,465 240,437 272% HVACb 518 462 89% Shellc 5,016 7,979 159% ENERGY STAR Homesb 14 26 186% Residential Prescriptive Total 94,013 248,904 265% a Participation is defined as the number of purchased units. b Participation is defined as the number of rebates. c Participation is defined as square feet of installed windows or storm windows. Multifamily Direct Install Program Table 15 shows reported savings and participation for the MFDI program in PY 2018. Avista launched this program as a pilot in PY 2018 and did not set annual program goals, then transitioned this from a pilot to an ongoing study in September 2018. Table 15. Multifamily Direct Install Reported Electric Savings Program Path Savings Reported (kWh) Participation Reported Multifamily Direct Install 729,920 1,330 Evaluation Goals and Objectives For the PY 2018 quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, Cadmus verified savings for most programs through a combination of database review and document review, which are described below. Residential Impact Evaluation Methodology To determine the residential sector verified savings for PY 2018, Cadmus employed two impact evaluation methods for most residential programs:3 • Database review • Document review Similar to previous practice, Cadmus calculated adjusted savings based on results of the database review and applied realization rates from our document reviews. Verified savings represented adjusted savings multiplied by the document review realization rates, as shown in Figure 1. 3 With approval from Avista, Cadmus ceased performing a third impact activity—verification surveys—in the third quarter of PY 2018 to eliminate redundancy between verification surveys and document review. 14 Figure 1. Residential Impact Process Database Review For the impact evaluation database review, Cadmus used UES values, as provided in the TRM, to calculate savings for measures reported in the measure tracking database. This impact activity may help identify incorrect UES values used to calculate reported savings. Savings calculated during the database review are defined as adjusted savings. Document Review For the document review, Cadmus compared information from rebate forms and other supporting documents to measure tracking data for a random sample of projects. This impact activity may identify installed measures that did not meet eligibility requirements, quantities that did not match the measure tracking database, and other discrepancies. Following our review of all projects, we calculated a realization rate for the document review by dividing savings calculated for the sample (using the revised information) by reported savings for the sample. We then multiplied this realization rate by adjusted savings for the entire program to determine verified savings. Cadmus conducted document reviews for the programs shown in Table 16, drawing roughly equal samples from participants in each quarter. Table 16. Residential Prescriptive Electric Impact Document Review Program Completed for PY 2018 HVAC 34 Shell 34 Residential Impact Evaluation Results The following sections summarize findings and provide verified savings for both of Cadmus’ impact evaluation methodologies. The database review resulted in the largest number of adjustments to reported savings. 15 Database Review Table 17 shows database review findings, with adjusted savings being higher than reported savings for some programs and lower for others. Adjusted savings differed from reported savings because reported UES values differed from TRM values for several measures. Avista determined that the reported savings for these measures used values from an older customer database that did not align with those in the current TRM. For measures with reported savings based on measure-specific parameters, Cadmus could not confirm the reported savings calculations, which depended on inputs that were not included in the tracking data (such as air infiltration and duct sealing). Table 17. Residential Prescriptive Database Review Electric Impact Findings Program Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Percentage Change Simple Steps, Smart Savings 3,693,056 3,454,438 -6% HVAC 765,230 786,170 3% Shell 95,748 100,535 5% ENERGY STAR Homes 116,567 83,738 -28% Residential Prescriptive Total 4,670,601 4,424,881 -5% Document Review Table 18 summarizes document review findings to date. The HVAC program had a 96% electric realization rate and the Shell program had an 85% electric realization rate. Table 18. Residential Prescriptive Electric Impact Document Review Realization Rates Program Document Audit Count Sample Reported Savings (kWh) Sample Verified Savings (kWh) Document Audit Realization Rate HVAC 34 32,997 31,691 96% Shell 34 49,224 41,915 85% Cadmus identified several discrepancies during the document review through PY 2018: • For two window measures, documentation showed a square footage for installed windows that differed from that reported. In both cases, the documented square footage was lower than that reported and resulted in lower verified savings based on the corrected area. • For four window measures reported at sites with electric heating, project documents identified heating fuels other than electricity. Cadmus added natural gas savings and removed electricity savings at two sites identified as using natural gas heating. Documentation for the other two sites identified the heating fuel as liquid propane for one site and wood pellets for the other, so Cadmus removed electricity savings for these sites. • One heat pump water heater measure had a tank capacity of 80 gallons per the documentation. To qualify for the measure, however, the heat pump water heater had to have a tank size below 55 gallons, so Cadmus removed savings for this measure. 16 Table 19 shows verified savings, which apply the realization rates shown in Table 18 to the adjusted savings calculated based on the database review. The verified savings represent Cadmus’ best estimate of savings without conducting a billing analysis. Table 19. Residential Prescriptive Electric Impact Findings Program Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Verified Electric Savings (kWh)a Realization Rates Simple Steps, Smart Savings 3,693,056 3,454,352 3,454,352 94% HVACb 765,230 786,170 755,054 99% Shell 95,748 100,535 85,608 89% ENERGY STAR Homes 116,567 83,738 83,738 72% Residential Prescriptive Total 4,670,601 4,424,796 4,378,753 94% a Verified savings represents adjusted savings only for Simple Steps, Smart Savings and ENERGY STAR Homes. b Includes heat pump water heater installations not included in Table 17 of the PY 2018 Idaho Annual Conservation Report. Table 19 of that report includes heat pump water heater savings. Residential Conclusions and Recommendations Verified electricity savings show a realization rate of 94% on realized savings of 4,378,753 kWh for the residential Prescriptive programs, which is 202% of the savings goal for the year, due largely to program participation that was 265% of goal. Reported savings for the MFDI program added 729,920 kWh, for total acquired savings of 5,108,673 kWh. Lighting measures account for a high percentage of residential sector program path savings: Simple Steps, Smart Savings provided 68% of residential savings, mostly through lighting measures, and MFDI provided 14% of savings, also mostly through lighting measures. The HVAC program accounted for 15% of savings, with Shell and ENERGY STAR Homes accounting for a combined 3% of residential sector savings. During the evaluation, Avista confirmed that the UES values used to calculate reported savings for numerous residential sector measures had not been updated to match 2018 TRM UES values. This was especially pronounced in the Residential HVAC program, where reported savings under-represented savings for heat pump measures. Under the direction of Avista, Cadmus adjusted reported savings for these measures to match the 2018 TRM UES values. Based on reported savings, the ENERGY STAR Homes program achieved 253% of goal, but reported participation and verified savings both showed that the program achieved approximately 72% of goal, which indicates that reported savings values are well over the 2018 TRM UES values. Cadmus offers three recommendations regarding Avista’s residential sector electric programs: • Ensure that reported savings for all Prescriptive measures are calculated using current TRM or RTF UES values. • Continue to encourage the adoption of efficient lighting through the Simple Steps, Smart Savings program. The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Residential Building Stock Assessment II 17 shows that roughly 40% of installed lamps in single family homes in Washington and Idaho are based either on incandescent or halogen technology. • The MFDI program has proven to be an efficient, effective mechanism for installing high- efficiency lighting and aerators in multifamily units. The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Residential Building Stock Assessment II “Multifamily Buildings Report” estimated that 44% of lighting in multifamily units use incandescent or halogen technology. Cadmus recommends to focus on replacing high-use, low-efficiency lamps where practical, to maximize program cost- effectiveness while keeping savings high. 18 Low Income Impact Evaluation Cadmus designed the Low Income programs’ impact evaluation to verify reported program participation and energy savings. We used data collected and reported in the tracking database and conducted a TRM savings review. Program Summary Avista leverages the infrastructure of a single Community Action Partnership agency to deliver energy effiicency programs for the company’s low-income residential customers in the Idaho service territory. The program is designed to serve Avista residential customers in Idaho whose income falls between 175 percent and 250 percent of federal poverty level. For PY 2018, the program achieved 228,498 kWh of reported electric savings in Idaho, not including savings for the Low Income Fuel Efficiency measures, which are reported separately in the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section. Program Participation Summary Table 20 shows Avista savings goals for the Low Income sector for PY 2018, as well as reported savings and goal portions achieved in PY 2018. Table 20. Low Income Reported Savings (PY 2018) Program Savings Goals (kWh) Reported Savings (kWh)a Percentage of Goal Low Income 159,162 228,498 144% a Reported savings do not include Low Income Fuel Efficiency savings, shown in the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section. Table 21 summarizes participation goals for the Low Income programs, along with participation reported and achieved in PY 2018. Table 21. Low Income Participation (PY 2018) Program Participation Goalsa Participation Reporteda Percentage of Goal Low Income 16,419 63,436 386% a Participation numbers do not include Low Income Fuel Efficiency participation, shown in the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section, or recipients of LED bulbs at giveaway events. Participation is defined as the number of installed units or square feet of installed insulation or windows. Evaluation Goals and Objectives For quarterly and semiannual reports in PY 2018 and PY 2019, Cadmus will determine verified savings for the Low Income programs through a database review (described above in the Database Review section). This approach will provide a strong estimate of achieved savings until Cadmus can perform billing analysis at the end of the two-year evaluation cycle. Low Income Impact Evaluation Methodology Cadmus’ impact evaluation for the Low Income programs’ measures consisted of database review (described above in the Database Review section). We used UES values provided in the TRM to calculate 19 savings for measures reported in the measure tracking database. Cadmus labeled savings calculated during the database review as adjusted savings. Low Income Impact Evaluation Results Table 22 shows reported and adjusted electric savings for Low Income conservation measures. The table does not include savings for Low Income programs Fuel Efficiency path measures (shown in the Low Income Fuel Efficiency Impact Findings section below). Table 22. Low Income Electric Impact Findings Program Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Verified Electric Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Low Income 228,498 252,699 252,699 111% Low Income Conclusions and Recommendations With a realization rate of 111% for electricity savings, the Low Income programs achieved savings of 252,699 kWh in PY 2018, or about 159% of goal. Reported program participation reached 386% of the expected value. Cadmus recommends that Avista adjust its participation goal to better align with PY 2018 findings, and also adjust savings per participant, as the participation goal was exceeded by a much larger margin than the total savings goal. Roughly one third of verified Low Income program savings resulted from LED bulbs given out at events. Cadmus understands that Avista relies on a Community Action Partnership to deliver Low Income savings in Idaho. Cadmus’ PY 2019 evaluation activities will include a process review of the Low Income programs, which may help identify opportunities to improve program performance. 20 Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Cadmus designed the Fuel Efficiency sector impact evaluation to verify reported program participation and energy savings. We used data collected and reported in the tracking database and details from online application forms, as well as reviewed TRM and RTF savings and applicable updated deemed savings values. Program Summary Fuel Efficiency measures replace electric space heating or water heating systems with equipment using natural gas. These measures are offered within the Nonresidential Site Specific path, Residential Prescriptive programs, and Low Income programs. Across these programs, the Fuel Efficiency measures reported participation of 190 in PY 2018 and electric energy savings of 1,824,345 kWh. Fuel Efficiency measures provide positive electricity savings and negative natural gas savings, reflecting negative avoided costs. Cadmus incorporated these negative avoided costs in the electric cost- effectiveness calculations. We report the negative natural gas savings in the PY 2018 Idaho Natural Gas Impact Evaluation Report. Program Participation Summary This section summarizes Fuel Efficiency sector participation and progress toward PY 2018 goals for the Nonresidential Site Specific path, Residential Prescriptive programs, and Low Income programs. Nonresidential Site Specific Path The Nonresidential sector Site Specific program path includes Fuel Efficiency measures that replace electric space heating or water heating systems with natural gas equipment. Fuel Efficiency measures provide positive electricity savings and negative natural gas savings, reflecting negative avoided costs. Two types of measures are considered Fuel Efficiency in the PY 2018 Idaho Nonresidential sector database: • Site Specific HVAC combined • Site Specific multifamily Table 23 shows electric savings goals and reported electric savings for the Nonresidential sector Fuel Efficiency measures. There were only five participants in PY 2018. Avista confirmed that it did not set participation goals for Site Specific Fuel Efficiency measures outside the Multifamily Market Transformation program. Table 23. Nonresidential Site Specific Fuel Efficiency Electric Savings (PY 2018) Fuel Efficiency Measure Savings Goals (kWh) Savings Reported (kWh) Percentage of Goal Nonresidential Site Specific N/A 65,061 N/A Multifamily Market Transformation 299,574 207,408 69% 21 Residential Prescriptive Programs Table 24 shows Avista PY 2018 savings goals for Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency measures as well as reported savings and percentage of goal through PY 2018. Table 24. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Reported Electric Savings (PY 2018) Fuel Efficiency Measure Savings Goals (kWh) Reported Savings (kWh) Percentage of Goal Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency 2,727,600 1,449,994 53% Table 25 shows the Avista PY 2018 participation goal and reported participation for Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency measures, as well as the participation percentage of goal through PY 2018. Table 25. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Reported Participation (PY 2018) Fuel Efficiency Measure Participation Goalsa Participation Reporteda Percentage of Goal Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency 271 170 63% a Participation is defined as the number of rebates. Low Income Programs Table 26 shows Avista PY 2018 savings goals for Low Income Fuel Efficiency measures, as well as reported savings and percentage of goal through PY 2018. Table 26. Low Income Fuel Efficiency Reported Electric Savings (PY 2018) Fuel Efficiency Measure Savings Goals (kWh) Reported Savings (kWh) Percentage of Goal Low Income Fuel Efficiency 344,850 101,882 30% Table 27 summarizes participation goals for Low Income Fuel Efficiency measures, as well as participation reported and achieved through PY 2018. Table 27. Low Income Fuel Efficiency Participation (PY 2018) Fuel Efficiency Measure Participation Goalsa Participation Reporteda Percentage of Goal Low Income Fuel Efficiency 46 15 33% a Participation is defined as the number of rebates. Evaluation Goals and Objectives For quarterly and semiannual reports in PY 2018 and PY 2019, Cadmus will determine verified savings for Nonresidential Site Specific and Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency measures through database review (described above in the Database Review section) and document review (described above in the Document Review section). For Low Income Fuel Efficiency measures, Cadmus will determine adjusted savings through database review. These approaches will provide strong estimates of achieved savings until Cadmus can perform billing analysis at the end of the two-year evaluation cycle. 22 Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Methodology The impact methodology for Fuel Efficiency measures is outlined below for the Nonresidential Site Specific path, Residential Prescriptive programs, and Low Income programs. Nonresidential Site Specific Fuel Efficiency Impact Methodology Cadmus followed the same impact evaluation methodology for Fuel Efficiency measures as outlined in the Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Methodology section. We selected six Multifamily Market Transformation program projects for our evaluation of the Nonresidential sector Fuel Efficiency measures, all of which were in Washington. Of the sampled applications, we selected five for certainty review based on the scale of savings, measure type, or location, and selected the remaining application randomly. Cadmus performed site visits at five unique Nonresidential locations to assess electric savings for the six unique Multifamily Market Transformation program measures. Site visits involved verifying installed equipment type, make and model numbers, operating schedules, and set points, as applicable. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Impact Methodology For our impact evaluation of Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency measures, we followed the methodology described in the For the PY 2018 quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, Cadmus verified savings for most programs through a combination of database review and document review, which are described below. Residential Impact Evaluation Methodology section and conducted database review and document review. We completed document reviews for 34 Fuel Efficiency participants in PY 2018. Low Income Fuel Efficiency Impact Methodology For our impact evaluation of Low Income Fuel Efficiency measures, we focused on a database review (described above in the Database Review section). We used unit savings values provided in the TRM to calculate savings for measures reported in the measure tracking database. Savings calculated during the database review are adjusted savings. For Low Income programs’ measures in general (including Low Income Fuel Efficiency measures), these savings are also considered verified savings. Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Results The following sections summarize findings for the Nonresidential Site Specific path, Residential Prescriptive programs, and Low Income programs Fuel Efficiency measures. All Fuel Efficiency measures provide positive electricity savings and negative natural gas savings because these measures replace electric space heating or water heating systems with equipment that uses natural gas. Negative savings, reflecting negative avoided costs, are incorporated in the electric cost-effectiveness calculations. We also report these negative savings in the PY 2018 Idaho Natural Gas Impact Evaluation Report. 23 Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency Impact Findings Table 28 shows reported and verified electric energy savings for Avista’s Nonresidential sector Fuel Efficiency measures—along with realization rates—through PY 2018. Table 28. Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Findings Fuel Efficiency Measure Reported Savings (kWh) Verified Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Nonresidential Site Specific 65,061 65,061 100% Multifamily Market Transformation 207,408 202,324 98% Total 272,469 267,385 98% Of the evaluated applications, Cadmus identified discrepancies in the randomly-sampled Multifamily Market Transformation program measure based on the evaluation site visit and project documentation review. The site installed more efficient furnaces than reported, which resulted in lower natural gas energy consumption of the installed units versus baseline efficiency units, meaning that less electricity was offset for this measure than reported. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Impact Findings Table 29 shows reported, adjusted, and verified electric energy savings for the Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency measures. Database review yielded higher savings than reported because of discrepancies in the UES values used. Table 29. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Findings Fuel Efficiency Measure Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Verified Electric Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency 1,449,994 1,508,360 1,442,640 100% In reviewing documentation for 34 Residential Fuel Efficiency measures, Cadmus found an issue with two measures. Both were natural gas furnaces installed at sites where the furnace replaced an oil-fired heating system. We eliminated the electricity savings for the natural gas furnaces, because the replaced system did not heat using electricity. These adjustments led to a document review realization rate of 96%, as shown in Table 30. Table 30. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Document Review Realization Rate Fuel Efficiency Measure 2018-2019 Target Document Audit Count Document Audit Count Achieved to Date Sample Reported Savings (kWh) Sample Verified Savings (kWh) Document Audit Realization Rate Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency 68 34 343,579 328,609 96% Low Income Fuel Efficiency Impact Findings Table 31 shows reported and adjusted electric energy savings for Low Income Fuel Efficiency measures. 24 Table 31. Low Income Fuel Efficiency Program Electric Impact Findings Fuel Efficiency Measure Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Verified Electric Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Low Income Fuel Efficiency 101,882 103,054 103,054 101% Fuel Efficiency Conclusions and Recommendations Nonresidential Site Specific and Multifamily Market Transformation Fuel Efficiency measures achieved verified savings of 267,385 kWh, yielding a 98% realization rate. The Multifamily Market Transformation Fuel Efficiency measures achieved only 69% of the electric energy savings goal of 299,574 kWh. Residential Prescriptive Fuel Efficiency measures achieved verified savings of 1,442,640 kWh, yielding a 99% realization rate and achieving 53% of savings goal. Cadmus recommends that Avista update reported savings to use current TRM UES values, particularly for measures where the differences are especially notable, such as conversions to natural gas water heaters and conversions to natural gas wall furnaces. For Low Income Fuel Efficiency measures, verified savings fell short of Avista’s savings goals, achieving 30% of the savings target and 33% of the participation target. PY 2019 Idaho Electric Impact Evaluation Report May 29, 2020 Prepared for: Avista Corporation 1411 East Mission Avenue Spokane, WA 99202 i Table of Contents Portfolio Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 Evaluation Methodology and Activities ................................................................................................. 1 Summary of Impact Evaluation Results ................................................................................................. 1 Conclusions and Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 2 Nonresidential Impact Evaluation ......................................................................................................... 5 Program Summary ................................................................................................................................. 5 Program Participation Summary ............................................................................................................ 5 Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Methodology ................................................................................... 7 Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Results ............................................................................................. 9 Nonresidential Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................... 13 Residential Impact Evaluation ............................................................................................................. 15 Program Summary ............................................................................................................................... 15 Program Participation Summary .......................................................................................................... 15 Residential Impact Evaluation Methodology ....................................................................................... 16 Residential Impact Evaluation Results ................................................................................................. 21 Residential Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................. 24 Low-Income Impact Evaluation ........................................................................................................... 25 Program Summary ............................................................................................................................... 25 Program Participation Summary .......................................................................................................... 25 Low-Income Impact Evaluation Methodology ..................................................................................... 25 Low-Income Impact Evaluation Results ............................................................................................... 26 Low-Income Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................... 26 Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation ........................................................................................................ 27 Program Summary ............................................................................................................................... 27 Program Participation Summary .......................................................................................................... 27 Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Methodology .................................................................................. 28 Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Results ............................................................................................ 28 Fuel Efficiency Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................ 31 ii Tables Table 1. Electric Program Evaluation Activities ............................................................................................ 1 Table 2. Reported and Evaluated Electric Savings ........................................................................................ 2 Table 3. Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Savings ................................................................................... 6 Table 4. Nonresidential Prescriptive Participation Goals by Equipment Rebated ....................................... 6 Table 5. Nonresidential Prescriptive Participation by Project ...................................................................... 7 Table 6. Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Savings ................................................................................... 7 Table 7. Idaho Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Evaluation Sample ....................................................... 9 Table 8. Idaho Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Evaluation Sample ....................................................... 9 Table 9. Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Impact Findings ................................................................... 10 Table 10. Nonresidential Prescriptive Evaluation Summary of Discrepancies ........................................... 10 Table 11. Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Impact Findings ................................................................. 12 Table 12. Nonresidential Site Specific Evaluation Summary of Discrepancies ........................................... 12 Table 13. Residential Reported Electric Savings ......................................................................................... 16 Table 14. Residential Participation ............................................................................................................. 16 Table 15. Residential Electric Impact Document Review ........................................................................... 18 Table 16. Residential Database Review Electric Impact Findings ............................................................... 21 Table 17. Residential Electric Impact Document Review Realization Rates ............................................... 21 Table 18. Residential Programs Billing Analysis Results ............................................................................. 22 Table 19. Residential Electric Impact Findings ........................................................................................... 23 Table 20. Low-Income Reported Savings ................................................................................................... 25 Table 21. Low-Income Participationa .......................................................................................................... 25 Table 22. Low-Income Electric Impact Findings ......................................................................................... 26 Table 23. Avista Portfolio Fuel Efficiency Reported Electric Savings .......................................................... 27 Table 24. Avista Portfolio Fuel Efficiency Reported Participation .............................................................. 28 Table 25. Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Findings ............................................................. 29 Table 26. Residential Fuel Efficiency Analysis Results ................................................................................ 29 Table 27. Residential Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Findings ................................................................... 30 Table 28. Low-Income Fuel Efficiency Program Electric Impact Findings ................................................... 30 Figure Figure 1. Residential Impact Process .......................................................................................................... 17 1 Portfolio Executive Summary For several decades, Avista Corporation has administered demand-side management programs to reduce the electricity and natural gas energy use of its portfolio of customers. Avista contracted with Cadmus to complete process and impact evaluations of its program year (PY) 2018 and PY 2019 electric demand-side management programs in Idaho. This report presents Cadmus’ electric impact evaluation findings for PY 2019. Cadmus did not apply net-to-gross adjustments to savings values, except in cases where deemed energy savings values already incorporated net-to-gross as a function of the market baseline. Evaluation Methodology and Activities Cadmus conducted the Idaho portfolio evaluation using a variety of methods and activities, shown in Table 1. Table 1. Electric Program Evaluation Activities Sector Program Document/Database Review Verification/Metering Site Visits Billing Analysis Nonresidential Prescriptive (Multiple) ü ü -- Site Specific ü ü ü Residential Simple Steps, Smart Savings™ ü -- -- HVAC ü -- ü Shell ü -- ü ENERGY STAR® Homes ü -- -- Multifamily Direct Install ü -- ü Multifamily Direct Install Supplemental Lighting ü -- -- Low-Income Low-Income ü -- ü Fuel Efficiency Site Specific (Nonresidential) ü -- -- Residential ü -- ü Low-Income ü -- ü Summary of Impact Evaluation Results Overall, the Idaho electric portfolio achieved a 97% realization rate and acquired 25,230,990 kWh in annual evaluated savings (Table 2). Cadmus collected Avista’s reported savings through database extracts from its Customer Care and Billing (residential) and InforCRM and iEnergy (nonresidential) databases and from data provided by third-party implementers to determine evaluated savings. Although some individual project results varied, both the Residential and Nonresidential sector performed strongly in PY 2018 and PY 2019. 2 Table 2. Reported and Evaluated Electric Savings Sector Reported Savings (kWh) Evaluated Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Nonresidential 17,826,108 16,443,270 92% Residential 6,426,003 7,035,960 109% Low-Income 234,102 232,126 99% Fuel Efficiency 1,521,494 1,519,634 102% Total 26,007,707 25,230,990 97% Note: totals may not sum due to rounding. Conclusions and Recommendations During the PY 2019 evaluation, Cadmus identified several areas for improvement, outlined below by sector. Nonresidential Conclusions and Recommendations The Nonresidential sector achieved total evaluated electric energy savings of 16,443 MWh in PY 2019, with a realization rate of 92%. The Nonresidential sector achieved 78% of the combined Prescriptive and Site Specific program paths’ electric savings goal of 21,215 MWh. While some individual project results varied, the overall Nonresidential sector performed strongly in PY 2019. Most of the projects Cadmus sampled for evaluation were well documented and matched what the team found during site visit verification. Cadmus encountered some challenges evaluating the PY 2019 Nonresidential program due to midyear changes Avista made to its application tracking database system. The new iEnergy database stores and reports data in different formats and different aggregation levels than the previous system. As the transition occurred midyear and some applications were entered into both systems, Avista and Cadmus staff had to manually combine and recategorize data from the new database to match up with the format used for the old database. Cadmus identified several issues with exports from the new database as well as underlying errors with the way the new system calculated some savings. Avista has corrected the issues Cadmus identified, and the new iEnergy database has the potential to facilitate more accurate savings estimates, more detailed project tracking, and more thorough evaluations in the future. Cadmus offers the following recommendations for improving the Nonresidential sector’s energy savings: • Ensure that the final reported savings calculations reflect the most up-to-date project details, including post-installation verification photos, equipment submittals, and invoices. During two project verifications, Cadmus found the installed equipment sizes, quantities, or performance ratings differed from those used in the reported savings calculations. • Review hours of use (HOU) estimates for interior and exterior lighting projects when reviewing submissions and conducting installation verification (IV). Applications claiming 8,760 hours should be particularly scrutinized. Before any new equipment installations, confirm the presence or absence of lighting controls and record how they were configured. Cadmus found a small 3 percentage of Prescriptive and Site Specific projects where lighting HOU and controls varied from the submitted details. • Ensure lighting projects are correctly categorized as interior or exterior. Cadmus evaluated two Prescriptive lighting projects with fixtures listed under the wrong measure category. • Review measurement and verification plans for Site Specific projects carefully and early in the process to ensure an appropriate measurement basis. Also, work with site contacts to establish trend logs for relevant building management system or industrial control system data points during the baseline period. • Continue to pursue improvements with Avista IV reports. Cadmus staff found that the level of detail in IV reports varied. Cadmus recommends that all IV reports include basic information and explicitly state the quantity and type of equipment found. For lighting projects, this would include confirmed fixture types, quantities, installation locations, controls, and estimated HOU. For most other equipment, this would include nameplates, model numbers, and quantities. Residential Conclusions and Recommendations Evaluated electricity savings show a realization rate of 109% on evaluated savings of 7,036 MWh for the Residential programs, which is 156% of the savings goal for the year. The high percentage of achieved savings relative to the goal results largely from high program participation (134% of goal) and the strong overall realization rate for the Residential sector (109%). Lighting measures accounted for 73% of the total Residential sector savings. The following list shows the percentage of Residential evaluated savings provided by each program: • The Simple Steps, Smart Savings program provided 55% of Residential evaluated savings, mostly through lighting measures. • The Multifamily Direct Install and Multifamily Direct Install Supplemental Lighting programs provided 23% of evaluated savings, again mostly through lighting measures. • The Residential HVAC program accounted for 19% of evaluated savings. • The Shell and ENERGY STAR Homes programs accounted for a combined 3% of Residential evaluated savings. Realization rates varied by program, from 84% for the Shell program to 202% for the HVAC program, which resulted in a strong overall realization rate of 109% for PY 2019. Cadmus identified few discrepancies through the document review, finding that the great majority of projects were well documented and met program requirements. Cadmus offers three recommendations regarding Avista’s Residential electric programs: • Based on billing analysis conducted for this evaluation, adjust Avista’s Technical Reference Manual (TRM) to provide higher savings values for variable-speed motors installed with the G Natural Gas Furnace measure and lower savings for replacement windows in electrically heated homes. The billing analysis showed savings for the variable-speed motor measure nearly four times the Avista TRM value on average. This was seemingly due to a shift away from 4 secondary electric heating (such as portable heaters or wall heaters) in some homes after replacing a gas furnace with a high-efficiency model. For replacement windows in electrically heated homes, the billing analysis estimated unit savings of 72% the 2019 TRM value. • The MFDI program has proven to be an efficient, effective mechanism for installing high- efficiency lighting and aerators in multifamily units. Continue to focus on replacing high-use, low-efficiency lamps where practical, to maximize program cost-effectiveness while maintaining high savings. • Ensure that reported savings for all measures are calculated using current TRM or Regional Technical Forum unit energy savings (UES) values, and that the TRM provides values for all measures. Cadmus did not find large-scale problems with the PY 2019 measure tracking data, but the team did note numerous measure-tracking records that reported zero savings, despite the record showing the measure was completed and that a rebate was issued. In addition, some instances of PY 2019 measures used UES values from the 2018 TRM, and reported values for some measures (most notably, smart thermostats) did not match TRM values. Fuel Efficiency Recommendations Nonresidential Site Specific and Multifamily Market Transformation Fuel Efficiency measures achieved evaluated savings of 300,230 kWh, yielding a 100% realization rate. The Multifamily Market Transformation Fuel Efficiency measures exceeded the electric energy savings goal of 234,960 kWh by 28%. Cadmus does not recommend any changes to the Nonresidential Site Specific and Multifamily Market Transformation Fuel Efficiency programs. Residential Fuel Efficiency measures achieved evaluated savings of 1,181,596 kWh, yielding a 102% realization rate and achieving 118% of savings goal. Cadmus recommends that Avista update TRM values to match measure-level UES values calculated by the billing analysis. Cadmus also recommends that Avista ensure all measures are represented in the TRM. For Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures, evaluated savings were 37,808 kWh, with a realization rate of 100%, but fell short of Avista’s savings goals, achieving 37% of the savings target and 43% of the participation target. Billing analysis indicated that program electric savings are likely higher, based on the billing analysis realization rate of 144% for Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures as a whole. Based on this finding, Cadmus recommends increasing the Avista TRM’s UES values. 5 Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Through its Nonresidential portfolio of programs, Avista promotes the purchase of high-efficiency equipment for commercial and industrial utility customers. Avista provides rebates to partially offset the difference in cost between high-efficiency equipment and standard equipment. Cadmus conducted Nonresidential impact evaluation activities to determine program year (PY) 2019 evaluated savings for most programs; the team conducted measurement and verification of Prescriptive and Site Specific projects across the full PY 2019 sample. Program Summary Avista completed and rebated 542 nonresidential electric measures in Idaho in PY 2019 and reported total electric energy savings of 17,826,108 kWh. Through the Nonresidential sector, Avista offers incentives for high-efficiency equipment and controls through three program paths: Prescriptive, Site Specific, and Multifamily Market Transformation. The Prescriptive program path applies to smaller, straightforward equipment installations that generally have similar operating characteristics (such as lighting, simple HVAC systems, food service equipment, and variable-frequency drives). The Site Specific program path applies to more unique projects that require custom savings calculations and technical assistance from Avista’s account executives (such as compressed air, process equipment and controls, and comprehensive lighting retrofits). Multifamily Market Transformation, a Site Specific program, prompts building owners and developers to consider natural gas as the fuel of choice when constructing new multifamily housing. These measures, represented by a combination of electric savings and natural gas penalties, typically involve replacing electric space-heating or water-heating systems with natural gas equipment. See the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section for the evaluation methodology and the results discussion for Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency measures. Program Participation Summary This section summarizes Nonresidential sector participation and progress toward PY 2019 goals through the Prescriptive and Site Specific program paths. Nonresidential Prescriptive Program Path Table 3 shows electric energy savings goals assigned to Avista’s Nonresidential Prescriptive program path for PY 2019, as well as reported savings and a comparison between reported savings and goals. 6 Table 3. Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Savings Program Name Savings Goals (kWh) Savings Reported (kWh) Percentage of Goal Interior Lighting 7,414,179 4,669,357 63% Exterior Lighting 4,299,232 3,192,110 74% Shell Measure 1,109 8,871 800% Green Motors 49,098 38,828 79% Motor Control (Variable Frequency Drives [VFD]) 75,595 0 0% Fleet Heat 8,000 0 0% Food Service Equipment 32,429 9,506 29% AirGuardian 18,000 136,244 757% Energy Smart Grocera 317,248 0 0% Total 12,214,890 8,054,916 66% a The Energy Smart Grocer savings goal includes Site Specific Energy Smart Grocer measures. The Site Specific portion constitutes approximately 10% of the overall goal. Table 4 shows participation goals by rebated equipment quantity, as provided by Avista. The PY 2019 nonresidential tracking database extract listed individual projects but did not include rebated equipment quantity. For reference, Table 5 provides participation by unique application numbers. Table 4. Nonresidential Prescriptive Participation Goals by Equipment Rebated Program Type Planned Participation Interior Lighting 121,200 Exterior Lighting 9,850 Shell Measure 435 Green Motors 17 Motor Control (VFD) 55 Fleet Heat 1 Food Service Equipment 6 AirGuardian 3 Energy Smart Grocera 814 a The Energy Smart Grocer goal includes Site Specific Energy Smart Grocer participants. 7 Table 5. Nonresidential Prescriptive Participation by Project Program Type Participation Reporteda Interior Lighting 249 Exterior Lighting 260 Shell Measure 6 Green Motors 12 Motor Control (VFD) 0 Fleet Heat 0 Food Service Equipment 3 AirGuardian 1 Energy Smart Grocer 0 Totalb 492 a Participant is defined as a unique application number. b Total unique applications. One application may contain measures from multiple programs. Nonresidential Site Specific Program Path Table 6 shows electric savings goals assigned to the Site Specific program path in Avista’s Nonresidential sector for PY 2019, as well as reported savings. The table does not include reported electric savings for the Fuel Efficiency sector, such as those associated with the Multifamily Market Transformation program. Table 6. Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Savings Program Path Savings Goals (kWh) Savings Reported (kWh) Percentage of Goal Site Specific 9,000,000 9,771,192 109% Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Methodology As the first step in evaluating PY 2019 savings for the Nonresidential sector, Cadmus explored the following documents and data records to gain an understanding of the programs and measures slated for evaluation: • Avista’s annual business plans, detailing processes and energy savings justifications • Project documents from external sources (such as customers, program consultants, or implementation contractors) Based on the initial review, Cadmus checked the distribution of program contributions with the overall program portfolio. The review provided insight into the sources for unit energy savings (UES) claimed for each measure offered in the programs, along with sources for energy-savings algorithms, internal quality assurance, and quality control processes for large Nonresidential sector projects. 8 Following this review, Cadmus designed a sample strategy for impact evaluation activities. Cadmus performed the following evaluation activities in two waves: • Selected evaluation sample and requested project documentation from Avista • Reviewed project documentation • Prepared on-site measurement and verification plans • Performed site visits and collected on-site data (such as trend data, photos, and operating schedules) • Used site visit findings to calculate evaluated savings by measure • Applied realization rates to the total reported savings population to determine overall program year evaluated savings Sample Design Cadmus created two sample waves for PY 2019. Sample 1 included program data from January 2019 through June 2019, and sample 2 included program data from July 2019 through December 2019. As a guideline, Cadmus used the proposed, overall PY 2019 nonresidential sample sizes by subprogram in the measurement and verification plan, seeking to complete approximately half of the sample in each wave. For each activity wave, Cadmus organized submitted program applications by path and measure (such as the Site Specific Shell Measure, Prescriptive Lighting, or Prescriptive Motor Controls), allowing the team to select the highest-savings applications in each category with certainty. For non-certainty applications, the team assigned random numbers and developed a random sample. In some cases, Cadmus sampled another application at the same location or a facility that was previously selected (and where the team could assess both applications with one site visit). This was a cost-effective verification strategy even if the second application represented minimal claimed savings. As Avista implements its programs similarly in both states, Cadmus sampled randomly selected sites across Washington and Idaho. The team pooled results from the randomly selected sites to calculate a realization rate by stratum and applied that realization rate to projects in both states. Cadmus applied evaluated savings for sites selected with certainty only to the state in which they had been implemented. Table 7 summarizes the Idaho Nonresidential Prescriptive program evaluation sample. In Idaho, Cadmus sampled 18 Prescriptive applications at 14 unique sites. Of the sampled applications, the team selected three for certainty review based on the scale of savings, measure type, or location. Cadmus then selected the remaining 15 applications randomly. No customers participated in the Fleet Heat, Motor Control, and Energy Smart Grocer programs in Idaho in PY 2019. 9 Table 7. Idaho Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Evaluation Sample Program Type Applications Sampled Sampled Savings (kWh) Percentage of Reported Savings Interior Lighting 7 576,688 12% Exterior Lighting 5 26,001 1% Shell Measure 1 3,920 44% Green Motors 4 19,706 51% Food Service Equipment 2 4,393 46% AirGuardian 1 136,244 100% Nonresidential Prescriptive 18 766,951 10% Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding. Two applications contained both interior and exterior lighting measures. Table 8 summarizes the Idaho Nonresidential Site Specific program path evaluation sample. In Idaho, Cadmus sampled five Site Specific applications at two unique sites. Of the sampled applications, the team selected four for certainty review based on the scale of savings, measure type, or location. Cadmus selected the remaining application randomly. Table 8. Idaho Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Evaluation Sample Program Path Applications Sampled Sampled Savings (kWh) Percentage of Reported Savings Site Specific 5 7,737,047 79% Document Review Cadmus requested and reviewed project documentation for each sampled application and prepared measurement and verification plans to guide its site visits. Typically, project documentation included incentive applications, calculation tools (usually based on the 2017 Regional Technical Forum [RTF]),1 invoices, equipment specification sheets, and installation verification (IV) reports. On-Site Verification Cadmus performed site visits at 16 unique nonresidential locations to assess electric savings for 25 unique Prescriptive and Site Specific measures (not including Fuel Efficiency measures). Site visits involved verifying the installed equipment type, make and model numbers, operating schedules, and setpoints, as applicable. Cadmus used the project documentation review and on-site findings to adjust reported savings calculations where necessary. The team did not consider it necessary to conduct power metering or light logging for PY 2019 site visits and used trend data provided by the participant to evaluate Site Specific industrial process measures. Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Results This section summarizes the Nonresidential Prescriptive and Site Specific program paths’ electric impact evaluation results for PY 2019. 1 Regional Technical Forum. 2017. “Standard Protocols.” https://rtf.nwcouncil.org/standard-protocols 10 Nonresidential Prescriptive Programs Table 9 shows reported and evaluated electric energy savings for Avista’s Nonresidential Prescriptive program and the realization rates between evaluated and reported savings for PY 2019. The overall Nonresidential Prescriptive program path electric realization rate was 100%. Table 9. Nonresidential Prescriptive Electric Impact Findings Program Type Reported Savings (kWh) Evaluated Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Interior Lighting 4,669,357 4,518,758 97% Exterior Lighting 3,192,110 3,303,660 103% Shell Measure 8,871 10,400 117% Green Motors 38,828 38,828 100% Food Service Equipment 9,506 9,506 100% AirGuardian 136,244 136,244 100% Nonresidential Prescriptive 8,054,916 8,017,396 100% Of the evaluated applications, Cadmus identified discrepancies for 18 based on the site visit and project documentation review. Table 10 summarizes the reasons for discrepancies between reported and evaluated savings. Table 10. Nonresidential Prescriptive Evaluation Summary of Discrepancies Project Type Number of Occurrences Savings Impact Reason(s) for Discrepancy Attic Insulation 1 ↓ • Avista reported incorrect savings values for one attic insulation project due to an error in its new database software. Cadmus reviewed all Prescriptive Shell measures to confirm that only one project was affected by the bug. Cadmus treated the affected project as a certainty project and evaluated savings using the typical savings calculator methodology. Refrigerated Cases 1 ↓ • Cadmus was only able to verify installation of 15 of the 17 refrigerator doors claimed on the application of one refrigerated cases measure and reduced the savings proportionally. 11 Project Type Number of Occurrences Savings Impact Reason(s) for Discrepancy Interior Lighting 5 ↓ • Cadmus reduced the fixture counts for one project as the evaluated installed quantity on the site was lower than the quantity reported on the application. • Cadmus reduced the hours of use (HOU) for one project that reported 24/7 operations after determining that occupancy controls and schedule controls were in place to reduce the lighting runtime prior to and after the project. • The Avista database categorized two projects as interior lighting that only had exterior fixtures. These savings were subtracted from interior lighting and added to exterior lighting. • Cadmus reduced fixture counts and increased HOU at one site where the building underwent a remodel shortly after completing the project and no longer matched the conditions reported at the time the application was submitted. 4 ↑ • Cadmus determined that the store hours at one site were higher than reported on the application. The team also determined that new occupancy controls were added that were not reported on the application, further decreasing installed HOU relative to baseline HOU. • Cadmus found that the installed fixtures for one project had a lower wattage than reported on the application. Exterior Lighting 3 ↓ • Cadmus reduced fixture counts and increased HOU at one site where the building underwent a remodel shortly after completing the project and no longer matched the conditions reported at the time the application was submitted. • Cadmus calculated savings for an outdoor display sign using the actual quantity and wattage of the lamps inside the sign. The Avista calculator used an estimated watts-per-square-foot method for exterior sign lighting based on assumed typical values. The team found the assumed baseline watts per square foot to be unreasonably high for the type of lighting typically installed in outdoor signs. 4 ↑ • Cadmus updated the savings calculations to use the actual verified fixture wattage instead of the assumed typical value for three projects. • Cadmus determined that two exterior lighting measures were incorrectly categorized as interior lighting measures in the Avista database and transferred those savings to exterior lighting. Throughout the evaluation, Cadmus found that the level of detail in IV reports varied. Most IV reports the team reviewed only stated that the reviewer “found the installation to match the application submitted,” including for a portion of projects where the inspections found discrepancies between the installation and the application. Some IV reports did not contain any text at all and only provided unlabeled photos. Cadmus evaluated a lighting project where the IV report only contained one photograph of each fixture type and no information about quantities. Nonresidential Site Specific Program Table 11 shows reported and evaluated electric energy savings for Avista’s PY 2019 Nonresidential Site Specific program path, as well as a comparison between evaluated and reported savings for PY 2019. 12 The overall Site Specific program path electric realization rate was 86%. The table does not include reported and evaluated electric savings for measures in the Fuel Efficiency path. Table 11. Nonresidential Site Specific Electric Impact Findings Program Path Reported Savings (kWh) Evaluated Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Site Specific 9,771,192 8,425,874 86% Of the evaluated applications, Cadmus identified discrepancies in three based on the site visit and project documentation review. Table 12 summarizes the reasons for discrepancies between reported and evaluated savings. Table 12. Nonresidential Site Specific Evaluation Summary of Discrepancies Project Type Number of Occurrences Savings Impact Reason(s) for Discrepancy Green Motor Rewind 1 ↑ • The reported savings reference for 2017 RTF. Cadmus applied deemed motor savings from the 2018 Technical Reference Manual (TRM) workbook. Refrigerator Door Gaskets 1 ↓ • The reported savings for one refrigerator door gasket project corresponded to 17 doors. Cadmus only received documentation for and verified installation of 15 doors at this site. Interior Lighting 14 ↓ • Cadmus reduced the fixture counts for three projects as the verified installed quantity on the site was lower than the quantity reported on the application. • Cadmus reduced the HOU for four projects that reported 24/7 operations after determining that occupancy controls and schedule controls were in place to reduce the lighting runtime prior to and after the project. • The Avista database categorized two projects as interior lighting that only had exterior fixtures. These savings were subtracted from interior lighting and added to exterior lighting. • Cadmus reduced the lighting hours from 100% on to 75% on one project, based on interviews with on-site staff. Cadmus also found a lower installed fixture quantity than that reported in the application. • Cadmus could not replicate the reported savings on one project based on reported fixture types and quantities. However, the team retained the reported quantities as they could not visit all spaces at the site for verification. • Cadmus determined that 13 W fixtures were installed in place of the 9 W fixtures reported on the application. 2 ↑ • Cadmus determined that the store hours at one site were higher than reported on the application. The team also determined that new occupancy controls were added which were not reported on the application, further decreasing installed HOU relative to baseline HOU. • Cadmus found that the installed fixtures for one project had a lower wattage than reported on the application. Exterior Lighting 3 ↓ • Cadmus reduced exterior lighting HOU from 8,760 to 4,288 for one project after determining that all exterior fixtures at the site were controlled by photocells. 13 Project Type Number of Occurrences Savings Impact Reason(s) for Discrepancy • Cadmus reduced fixture counts and increased HOU at one site where the building underwent a remodel shortly after completing the project and no longer matched the conditions reported at the time the application was submitted. • Cadmus calculated savings for an outdoor display sign using the actual quantity and wattage of the lamps inside the sign. The Avista calculator used an estimated watts-per-square-foot method for exterior sign lighting based on assumed typical values. 4 ↑ • Cadmus updated the savings calculations to use the actual verified fixture wattage instead of the assumed typical value for two projects. • Cadmus determined that two exterior lighting measures were incorrectly categorized as interior lighting measures in the Avista database and transferred those savings to exterior lighting. Motor Control (VFD) 2 ↓ • Cadmus determined that two return air fans with VFDs and reported as 3.0 horsepower were actually 2.5 horsepower. Shell Measure 1 ↓ • Cadmus determined there was no space cooling and space was heated with natural gas. As a result, the team removed electric savings from ceiling/wall insulation. 2 ↓ • Avista reported incorrect savings values for two Shell insulation projects due to an error in their new database software. Cadmus reviewed all Prescriptive Shell measures to confirm that only two projects were affected by the bug. Cadmus treated the two affected projects as certainty projects and evaluated savings using the typical savings calculator methodology. Industrial Process 2 ↑ • Cadmus recalculated savings for two motor replacement and VFD installation projects in a paper mill based on trend data from the post- installation period. The team found that the average kilowatt consumption of some installed motors was lower than predicted. Industrial Motor Controls 1 ê • Cadmus determined that the baseline power consumption estimation for a motor replacement project included unrelated equipment from the same power distribution bus. Cadmus revised the analysis using additional trend data and updated assumptions to ensure the baseline and post-installation calculations were consistent. The team found the estimated power consumption in both periods to be lower than reported in the original analysis, but significantly lower in the baseline, resulting in reduced savings. Nonresidential Conclusions and Recommendations The Nonresidential sector achieved total evaluated electric energy savings of 16,443 MWh in PY 2019, with a combined realization rate of 92%. The Nonresidential sector achieved 78% of the combined Prescriptive and Site Specific program paths’ electric goal of 21,215 MWh. While some individual project results varied, the overall Nonresidential sector performed strongly in PY 2019. Most of the projects Cadmus sampled for evaluation were well documented and matched what the team found during site visit verification. 14 Cadmus encountered some challenges evaluating the PY 2019 Nonresidential program due to midyear changes Avista made to their application tracking database system. The new iEnergy database stores and reports data in different formats and different aggregation levels than the previous system. As the transition occurred midyear and some applications were entered into both systems, Avista and Cadmus staff had to manually combine and recategorize data from the new database to match up with the format used for the old database. Cadmus identified several issues with exports from the new database as well as underlying errors with the way some savings were calculated by the new system. Avista has corrected the issues Cadmus identified, and the new iEnergy database has the potential to facilitate more accurate savings estimates, more detailed project tracking, and more thorough evaluations in the future. Cadmus offers the following recommendations for improving the Nonresidential sector’s energy savings: • Ensure that the final reported savings calculations reflect the most up-to-date project details, including post-installation verification photos, equipment submittals, and invoices. During two project verifications, Cadmus found different installed equipment sizes, quantities, or performance ratings than used in the reported savings calculations. • Review HOU estimates for interior and exterior lighting projects when reviewing submissions and conducting IV. Applications claiming 8,760 hours should be particularly scrutinized. Before any new equipment installations, confirm the presence or absence of lighting controls and record how they were configured. Cadmus found several Prescriptive and Site Specific projects where lighting HOU and controls varied from submitted details. • Ensure the correct categorization of lighting projects as interior or exterior. Cadmus evaluated two Prescriptive lighting projects with fixtures listed under the wrong measure category. • Review measurement and verification plans for Site Specific projects carefully early in the process to ensure an appropriate measurement basis, and work with site contacts to establish trend logs for relevant building management system or industrial control system data points during the baseline period. • Provide more thorough documentation with Avista IV reports. Cadmus staff found that the level of detail in IV reports varied. Cadmus recommends that all IV reports include basic information, explicitly stating the quantity and type of equipment found. For lighting projects this would include confirmed fixture types, quantities, installation locations, controls, and estimated HOU. For most other equipment, this would include nameplates, model numbers, and quantities. 15 Residential Impact Evaluation Cadmus designed the Residential sector impact evaluation to verify reported program participation and energy savings. The team used data collected and reported in the tracking database, online application forms, Avista TRM and RTF savings review, and analysis of participant electricity consumption data to evaluate savings. This approach provided the strongest estimate of achieved savings practical for each program, given its delivery method, magnitude of savings, number of participants, and availability of billing data. Program Summary Avista completed and rebated 349,056 residential electric measures or units in Idaho in PY 2019 and reported total electric energy savings of 6,426,003 kWh, not including participation and savings from Fuel Efficiency measures, which are included in the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section. Participation is defined as installed pieces of equipment (such as a furnace or showerhead) for some measures and square feet of surface for others (such as wall insulation and windows replacement). The Residential path includes several programs: • Simple Steps, Smart Savings, which encourages consumers to purchase and install high-quality LEDs, light fixtures, and energy-efficient showerheads • Residential HVAC, which offers incentives for high-efficiency heating and cooling equipment • Residential Shell, which provides rebates to encourage customers to install high-efficiency windows and storm windows • ENERGY STAR Homes, which offers 15% to 25% of energy savings relative to state energy codes • Multifamily Direct Install (MFDI), which provides free direct-install measures to multifamily residences (five units or more) and common areas • MFDI Supplemental Lighting, which revisited multifamily properties served by the MFDI program to install additional common area lighting. Program Participation Summary This section summarizes Residential sector participation and progress toward PY 2019 goals. Residential Programs Table 13 shows savings goals assigned to Avista’s Residential sector programs for PY 2019, as well as reported savings and the goal portion achieved in PY 2019. All programs except ENERGY STAR Homes and Residential HVAC exceeded savings goals based on reported savings, leading to an overall achievement of 142% of the savings goal for Residential programs. 16 Table 13. Residential Reported Electric Savings Program Savings Goals (kWh) Savings Reported (kWh) Percentage of Goal Simple Steps, Smart Savings 2,495,393 3,879,137 155% HVAC 674,367 659,957 98% Shell 139,065 190,390 137% ENERGY STAR Homes 86,190 66,262 77% Multifamily Direct Install 957,450 1,289,539 135% Multifamily Direct Install Supplemental Lighting 168,000 340,719 203% Residential Total 4,520,465 6,426,003 142% Note: totals may not sum due to rounding. Table 14 summarizes participation goals and reported participation in Avista’s Residential sector programs for PY 2019, along with the percentage of goal achieved. Table 14. Residential Participation Program Participation Goals Participation Reported Percentage of Goal Simple Steps, Smart Savingsa 190,126 317,124 167% HVACb 462 750 162% Shellc 67,184 27,404 41% ENERGY STAR Homesb 26 18 69% Multifamily Direct Installd 1,473 3,057 208% Multifamily Direct Install Supplemental Lightinge 750 703 94% Residential Total 260,021 349,056 134% a Participation is defined as the number of purchased units. b Participation is defined as the number of rebates. c Participation is defined as square feet of installed windows or storm windows. d Participation is defined as the number of living units and common areas served. e Participation is defined as the number of installed units. Residential Impact Evaluation Methodology To determine the Residential sector’s evaluated savings for PY 2019, Cadmus employed a combination of three impact evaluation methods:2 • Database review • Document review • Billing analysis First, Cadmus calculated adjusted savings for each program based on results of a database review. For the HVAC, Shell, and Fuel Efficiency programs, Cadmus also applied realization rates for the document 2 With approval from Avista, Cadmus ceased performing a fourth impact activity—verification surveys—in Q3 PY 2018; this eliminated redundancy between verification surveys and document reviews. 17 reviews. For these programs, the team calculated prescriptive evaluated savings by multiplying adjusted savings by the document review realization rate, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Residential Impact Process To provide the most rigorous evaluation method where practical, Cadmus analyzed consumption data for all available participants of the HVAC, Shell, Fuel Efficiency, and MFDI programs. As described in more detail in the Billing Analysis section, the team applied billing analysis results to determine evaluated savings only for measures where savings could be isolated (that is, where a sufficient number of participants could be identified who installed only that measure) and where confidence and precision met specific targets. Program-level realization rates for the HVAC, Shell, and Fuel Efficiency programs incorporate billing analysis results for some measures. Database Review For the impact evaluation database review, Cadmus used UES values, as provided in the TRM, to calculate savings for measures reported in the measure tracking database. This impact activity may help identify incorrect UES values used to calculate reported savings. Savings calculated during the database review are defined as adjusted savings. Document Review For the document review, Cadmus compared information from rebate forms and other supporting documents to measure tracking data for a random sample of projects. This impact activity may identify installed measures that did not meet eligibility requirements, quantities that did not match the measure tracking database, and other discrepancies. Following a review of all projects, Cadmus calculated a realization rate for the document review by dividing savings calculated for the sample (using the revised information) by reported savings for the sample. The team then multiplied this realization rate by adjusted savings for the entire program to determine prescriptive evaluated savings for PY 2019. Cadmus conducted document reviews for the programs shown in Table 15, drawing roughly equal samples from participants in each quarter. 18 Table 15. Residential Electric Impact Document Review Program Completed through Q2 PY 2019 HVAC 51 Shell 51 Billing Analysis For the Residential sector, Cadmus conducted billing analysis using available electricity and natural gas consumption data from Avista for the HVAC, Shell, Fuel Efficiency, and MFDI programs. Evaluating Simple Steps, Smart Savings program savings through billing analysis was not practical because participants of the midstream retail program were largely unknown. The ENERGY STAR Homes program had too few participants to produce meaningful billing analysis results. HVAC, Shell, and Fuel Efficiency Savings Estimates With the HVAC, Shell, and Fuel Efficiency programs, Cadmus eliminated the effects of multiple energy efficiency measures by only including participants in the analysis who installed one measure. With these programs, the goal was to provide average unit savings values at the measure level to ensure the most accurate values possible were used for evaluated savings and cost-effectiveness. Cadmus used the unit savings value provided by the billing analysis for a given measure when results for that measure met two requirements: the number of sites in the participant group was at least five, and the relative precision achieved was no greater than ±40% at the 90% confidence level. If results calculated using only Idaho participants met these requirements, the team used those results. If results based only on Idaho participants failed to meet the requirements, Cadmus used combined results for Idaho and Washington if those results passed. If no billing analysis results passed for a given measure, Cadmus applied the results of database review and document review to determine evaluated savings. Data Sources To conduct the consumption analysis, Cadmus used program measure tracking data provided by Avista, monthly electric and gas consumption data provided by Avista, and weather data (which included actual average daily temperatures for 13 weather stations in Idaho and Washington from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) for the billing analysis period. The team used zip codes to match daily heating and cooling degree days to respective monthly bill read dates. Additionally, Cadmus used typical meteorological year (TMY3) 15-year normal weather values from 1991–2005, obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the same weather stations, in assessing energy use under normal weather conditions. Participant and Comparison Group Designation Cadmus gathered data for a participant (treatment) group comprising all HVAC, Shell, and Fuel Efficiency program participants with measures installed in 2018. This allowed for enough pre- and post- consumption data to analyze the various measures’ effects. 19 To isolate the impact of exogenous factors (such as energy rate changes, economic condition changes, and non-programmatic effects) on energy use, Cadmus utilized a quasi-experimental3 design that involved selection of a comparison group, composed of participants with installation dates in late PY 2019. Through this approach, the team compared the treatment group’s pre- and post-change energy use (assumed to capture the program treatment) to the comparison group’s change in energy use (reflecting what would have happened absent the program). To ensure similarity between treatment and control groups, the team chose to use future participants as the comparison group because they would have similar qualifications and could be assumed to have not participated in energy efficiency programs prior to program treatment. Data Screening Starting with all HVAC, Shell, and Fuel Efficiency participants and the comparison group, Cadmus cleaned the data and screened for several criteria to identify final analysis samples. Data cleaning included performing account-level reviews of the pre- and post-period monthly consumption of all individual participants to identify anomalies (such as periods of unoccupied units) that could bias the results. Cadmus conducted the consumption analysis using participants who had not moved since participating and who had at least 10 months of pre- and post-period billing data. Cadmus applied several screens to remove anomalies, incomplete records, and outlier accounts. The following are examples of accounts excluded from the analyses: • Accounts missing records, prohibiting the team from merging participant program tracking data with consumption data. • Accounts with low annual use in the pre- or post-period, such as less than 1,240 kWh annually. • Customers with incorrect signs on Princeton Scorekeeping Method (PRISM) parameter estimates. • Accounts with other extreme values, including vacancies in billing data (outliers), non-program- related heating or cooling system changes (such as added or removed heating or cooling loads), baseload equipment changes, or changes in occupancy. This included screening for accounts with large gaps in interval data, such as having zero consumption across multiple months. Analysis To estimate measure-level impacts, Cadmus employed a pre- and post-installation savings analysis using household-level PRISM models that accounted for differences in pre- and post-installation weather conditions. The team estimated the heating and cooling PRISM model using variable 45°F to 85°F heating and cooling bases in both the pre- and post-period for each customer. 3 A quasi-experimental design is when treatment and control groups are not randomized prior to treatment. In this case, the comparison group was created after the treatment had occurred and participants self-selected the treatment. 20 Multifamily Direct Install With the MFDI program, isolating individual measures was not possible, because most living units received a range of LED light bulbs as well as water saving measures such as aerators and showerheads. To provide an accurate estimate of the energy savings for the program a whole, Cadmus performed a complex and rigorous evaluation involving matching tracking data with billing data at the account level. Cadmus estimated weather-normalized facility level usage. There were two main components of usage that were combined to develop the pre- and post-facility level usage estimates: unit-level usages and common area usages. Cadmus referenced the same data sources for MFDI consumption analysis as those identified for HVAC, Shell, and Fuel Efficiency analyses (see Data Sources section above) as well as the participant and comparison group approach to isolate the impact of exogenous factors (see Participant and Comparison Group Designation). Additionally, Cadmus cleaned the data to remove anomalies, incomplete records, and outlier accounts (see Data Screening). Analysis To estimate program impacts, Cadmus employed a pre- and post-installation savings analysis using household-level PRISM models that account for differences in pre- and post- installation weather conditions. Cadmus estimated the heating and cooling PRISM model using variable 45°F to 85°F heating and cooling bases in both the pre- and post-period for each MFDI unit and common area account. Because some units in a facility could not be matched to billing data or did not pass the screening process, the team found it necessary to extrapolate the available weather normalized pre- and post-period unit level PRISM usages to the facility level for all units. For each facility, the number of units in the facility was known. To obtain the final unit level component, Cadmus calculated the average pre-period usage, post- period usage, and savings per unit. Cadmus then multiplied those per-unit values by the number of units in the facility to obtain the total unit component facility usages, savings, and ex ante estimates. If the facility also had a common area component, Cadmus added usage for that area to the facility level unit usage component to develop the final total facility usage. Cadmus then applied weighting to calculate the final program savings estimate. A facility with 100 units has more weight than a facility with 10 units. The final savings estimates and ex ante estimates were weighted by the number of units. The MFDI Idaho participant group showed a reliable relative precision estimate of ±17% at the 90% confidence level for the 34 facilities included in the analysis and savings of 5.8%. The comparison group had only four facilities and showed a reduction in usage of 1.2%; however, with very high relative precision estimate of ±303%. This large confidence band around the comparison group shows that the change in usage was not significantly different than zero (that is, a savings increase was within the error bound), so a comparison group adjustment was not applied. 21 Residential Impact Evaluation Results The following sections summarize findings and provide evaluated savings for both of Cadmus’ impact evaluation methodologies. The database review resulted in the largest number of adjustments to reported savings. Database Review Table 16 shows database review findings, with adjusted savings being higher than reported savings for some programs and lower for others. Adjusted savings differed from reported savings because reported UES values differed from TRM values for several measures. The larger adjusted savings for the HVAC, ENERGY STAR Homes, and Shell programs resulted partly from some instances where the tracking data reported zero energy savings, despite the records showing the projects were complete and rebates were paid. For the MFDI program, adjustments included applying RTF UES values for multifamily direct-install aerators that were lower than the older values used by the implementer. The discrepancy with MFDI Supplemental Lighting resulted mostly from the omission of heating interactive effects for measures in common areas indicated as heated. Table 16. Residential Database Review Electric Impact Findings Program Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Percentage Change Simple Steps, Smart Savings 3,879,137 3,879,137 0% HVAC 659,957 684,425 4% Shell 190,390 216,838 14% ENERGY STAR Homes 66,262 69,615 5% Multifamily Direct Install 1,289,539 1,258,897 -2% Multifamily Direct Install Supplemental Lighting 340,719 332,718 -2% Residential Total 6,426,003 6,441,629 0% Note: totals may not sum due to rounding. Document Review Table 17 summarizes document review findings. The HVAC program had a 100% electric realization rate, and the Shell program had an 90% electric realization rate. Table 17. Residential Electric Impact Document Review Realization Rates Program Document Audit Count Sample Reported Savings (kWh) Sample Evaluated Savings (kWh) Document Review Realization Rate HVAC 51 50,106 48,800 97% Shell 51 73,925 64,268 87% Cadmus’ document review (through Q2 PY 2019) identified the following discrepancies: • For four window measures, documentation showed a square footage for installed windows that differed from the reported window area. In three cases, the documented window area was lower than the reported area and resulted in lower evaluated savings. In one case, the 22 documented window area was more than that reported and resulted in higher evaluated savings based on the corrected area. • For four window measures reported for sites with electric heating, project documents identified heating fuels other than electricity. Cadmus added natural gas savings and removed electricity savings at two sites identified as using natural gas heating. Documentation for the other two sites identified liquid propane as the heating fuel for one site and wood pellets as the fuel for the other; consequently, Cadmus removed electricity savings for these sites. • One PY 2018 heat pump water-heater measure had a tank capacity of 80 gallons, per the documentation. However, conditions for the rebate required a tank size below 55 gallons in PY 2018; consequently, Cadmus removed savings for this measure. Billing Analysis Table 18 shows measure-level billing analysis results, used when calculating evaluated electric energy savings. The participant count and relative precision for each measure easily met requirements established to ensure meaningful results, which required a participant count of at least five and a relative precision no greater than ±40% at the 90% confidence level. Table 18. Residential Programs Billing Analysis Results Measure 2019 Avista TRM UES (kWh) na Pre-Installation Weather Normalized Usage (kWh) Annual UES (kWh) Realization Rate Relative Precision at 90% Confidence Participant State E Variable Speed Motorb 414.00 195 12,251 1,528.63 369% 30% Idaho E Storm Window with Electric Heat 10.30 15,876 17,543 11.00 107% 26% Idaho and Washington E Window Replc from Single Pane W Electric Heatb 15.25 15,876 17,543 11.00 72% 26% Idaho and Washington a To provide unit savings values that align with TRM units, this table presents participant count in sq. ft. of window surface for storm widow and replacement window measures. b Results shown represent combined analysis of storm window and window-replacement measures, to maximize relative precision. Separate results for each measure appeared similar. Billing analysis results showed surprisingly high savings for the E Variable Speed Motor measure, with a realization rate of 369% relative to the 2019 Avista TRM UES value of 414 kWh. These participants generally also replaced an existing gas furnace with a high-efficiency model (via the G Natural Gas Furnace measure). The high electric energy savings appears to have resulted at least partly from a shift in some homes away from secondary electric heating, such as portable electric heaters or electric wall heaters, after installing the new gas furnace. Specifically, 66 of 159 participants in Idaho increased natural gas usage after installing the high-efficiency furnace with variable speed fan motor, and they sharply reduced electricity consumption. This pattern was not strong enough to suggest that the primary 23 heating system had changed from some other fuel to natural gas, but it did suggest that the high- efficiency furnace prompted participants to move away from secondary heating with electricity. Billing analysis provided relatively low electric energy savings for replacement windows relative to the 2019 TRM value of 15.25 kWh per square foot of window area, resulting in a realization rate of 72%. To provide participant counts high enough to support statistically significant estimates, Cadmus combined participants for the storm window and replacement window measures. Because billing analysis results for only Idaho failed to meet the ±40% precision requirement, Cadmus based evaluated Idaho savings on the combined results for Idaho and Washington participants. Note that in PY 2019, only one Idaho project reported savings through the storm window measure, claiming savings for 150 square feet of installed storm window, the realization rate for that measure has little impact on program savings. Billing analysis for the MFDI program showed strong electric energy savings for the program as a whole. As noted previously in Residential Impact Evaluation Methodology, isolating the impact of individual measures was not possible for MFDI because most living units received a range of LED light bulbs as well as water saving measures such as aerators and showerheads. To provide an accurate estimate of the energy savings for the program as a whole, Cadmus performed a complex and rigorous evaluation involving 1,549 living units in 34 apartment buildings and complexes. The analysis yielded a realization rate of 96% for electric energy savings in Idaho, with a relative precision of ±17% at a 90% confidence level. The billing analysis did not evaluate savings from the MFDI Supplemental Lighting program. Evaluated Savings To calculate evaluated savings, Cadmus used unit savings values determined through billing analysis for the measures shown in Table 18. For the remaining measures, Cadmus applied the results of database review and, where applicable, document review to evaluate savings for each measure. The analysis then rolled up measure-level evaluated savings to calculate evaluated savings and a realization rate for each program. Table 19 shows the resulting evaluated savings and realization rates. Table 19. Residential Electric Impact Findings Program Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Evaluated Electric Savings (kWh)a Realization Rates Simple Steps, Smart Savings 3,879,137 3,879,137 100% HVAC 659,957 1,335,085 202% Shell 190,390 160,507 84% ENERGY STAR Homes 66,262 69,615 105% Multifamily Direct Install 1,289,539 1,258,897 98% Multifamily Direct Install Supplemental Lighting 340,719 332,718 98% Residential Total 6,426,003 7,035,960 109% Note: totals may not sum due to rounding. 24 Residential Conclusions and Recommendations Evaluated electricity savings show a realization rate of 109% on evaluated savings of 7,036 MWh for the Residential programs, which is 156% of the savings goal for the year. The high percentage of achieved savings relative to the goal results from program participation that was 134% of goal and the strong overall realization rate for the Residential sector. Lighting measures accounted for 73% of the total Residential sector savings. The following shows the percentage of residential evaluated savings provided by each program: • The Simple Steps, Smart Savings program provided 55% of Residential evaluated savings, mostly through lighting measures. • The MFDI and MFDI Supplemental Lighting programs provided 23% of evaluated savings, again mostly through lighting measures. • The Residential HVAC program accounted for 19% of evaluated savings. • The Shell and ENERGY STAR Homes programs accounted for a combined 3% of residential evaluated savings. Realization rates varied by program from 84% for the Shell program to 202% for the HVAC program, resulting in a strong overall realization rate of 109% for PY 2019. Cadmus identified few discrepancies through document review, which found that the great majority of projects were well documented and met program requirements. Cadmus offers three recommendations regarding Avista’s Residential electric programs: • Based on billing analysis conducted for this evaluation, adjust the Avista TRM to provide higher savings values for variable-speed motors installed with the G Natural Gas Furnace measure and lower savings for replacement windows in electrically heated homes. The billing analysis showed savings for the variable-speed motor measure nearly four times the Avista TRM value on average, seemingly due to a shift away from secondary electric heating (such as portable heaters or wall heaters) in some homes after replacing a gas furnace with a high-efficiency model. For replacement windows in electrically heated homes, the billing analysis estimated unit savings of 72% the 2019 TRM value. • The MFDI program has proven to be an efficient, effective mechanism for installing high- efficiency lighting and aerators in multifamily units. Continue to focus on replacing high-use, low-efficiency lamps where practical, to maximize program cost-effectiveness while maintaining high savings. • Ensure that reported savings for all measures are calculated using current TRM or RTF UES values, and that the TRM provides values for all measures. Cadmus noted no large-scale problems with the PY 2019 measure tracking data but did note numerous measure-tracking records that reported zero savings, despite appearing to have been completed and a rebate having been issued. In addition, some instances of PY 2019 measures used UES values from the 2018 TRM, and reported values for some measures (most notably, smart thermostats) did not match TRM values. 25 Low-Income Impact Evaluation Cadmus designed the Low-Income program impact evaluation to verify reported program participation and energy savings. Evaluation methods included database review and billing analysis. Program Summary Avista leverages the infrastructure of a single Community Action Partnership agency to deliver energy effiicency programs for the company’s low-income residential customers in the Idaho service territory. The program is designed to serve Avista’s residential customers in Idaho whose income falls between 175% and 250% of federal poverty level. For PY 2019, the program achieved 234,102 kWh of reported electric savings in Idaho, not including savings for the Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures, which are reported separately in the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section. Program Participation Summary Table 20 shows Avista savings goals for the Low-Income sector for PY 2019, as well as reported savings and goal portions achieved in PY 2019. Table 20. Low-Income Reported Savings Program Savings Goals (kWh) Reported Savings (kWh)a Percentage of Goal Low-Income 148,972 234,102 157% a Reported savings do not include Low-Income Fuel Efficiency savings, shown in the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section. Table 21 summarizes participation goals for the Low-Income programs, along with participation reported and achieved in PY 2019. Table 21. Low-Income Participationa Program Participation Goals Participation Reported Percentage of Goal Low-Income 24,834 39,758 160% a Participation numbers do not include Low-Income Fuel Efficiency participation, shown in the Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation section. Participation is defined as the number of installed units or square feet of installed insulation or windows. Low-Income Impact Evaluation Methodology Cadmus evaluated Low-Income program measures by conducting a database review (described in the Database Review section) and billing analysis. The team used UES values provided in the TRM to calculate savings for measures reported in the measure tracking database. Cadmus labeled savings calculated during the database review as adjusted savings. For many measures reported in the tracking database, notes indicated that savings were capped at 20% of consumption. When duplicating savings calculations using TRM values, Cadmus used the newly calculated value if it was less than the capped value, but used the capped value where the TRM value indicated greater savings. 26 Cadmus conducted billing analysis for the Low-Income program using all electricity consumption data available from Avista for PY 2018 and PY 2019 program participants. Because of the relatively small number of Low-Income program participants, Cadmus was unable to isolate measure-level savings for the program (which are necessary for cost effectiveness calculations). In addition, realization rates for Idaho participants showed enough variation that billing analysis results did not meet the required confidence and precision threshold, either for Idaho participants or for Idaho and Washington participants combined. Low-Income Impact Evaluation Results Table 22 shows reported and adjusted electric savings for Low-Income conservation measures. The table does not include savings for Low-Income programs Fuel Efficiency path measures (shown in the Low- Income Fuel Efficiency Impact Findings section below). Table 22. Low-Income Electric Impact Findings Program Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Evaluated Electric Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Low-Income 234,102 232,126 232,126 99% During the database and TRM review, Cadmus noted a number of errors or challenges with the measure tracking data. For example, although the 2019 Avista TRM moved to providing a savings value per square foot of living space for air sealing, many instances of air sealing in the tracking data used the previous TRM value and did not include the area of the home. Some instances of some measures reported low or high electric savings values. The errors largely offset one another at the program level, as shown by the program’s 99% realization rate. Low-Income Conclusions and Recommendations With a realization rate of 99% for electricity savings, the Low-Income program achieved savings of 232,126 kWh in PY 2019, or 156% of goal. Reported program participation reached 160% of the expected value. Roughly 26% of evaluated Low-Income program savings resulted from LED bulbs given out at events. For many instances of measures in the Low-Income tracking data, notes indicated that savings were capped at 20% of consumption. The tracking data did not include adequate information to determine when savings values are appropriately capped. Cadmus recommends providing annual consumption for each measure in the tracking data, if practical, so that the evaluation can verify savings were capped at 20% of consumption for applicable measures. 27 Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Cadmus designed the Fuel Efficiency sector impact evaluation to verify reported program participation and energy savings. Evaluation methods included a database review, document review, and billing analysis. Program Summary Fuel Efficiency measures replace electric space heating or water heating systems with equipment using natural gas. These measures are offered within the Nonresidential Site Specific path (which includes HVAC Combined, refrigerator case doors, industrial process, and Multifamily Market Transformation measures), Residential programs, and Low-Income programs. Across these programs, Avista reported electric energy savings of 1,494,614 kWh for 161 Fuel Efficiency measures. Fuel Efficiency measures provide positive electricity savings and negative natural gas savings, reflecting negative avoided costs. Cadmus incorporated these negative avoided costs in the electric cost- effectiveness calculations and reported the negative natural gas consumption impacts in the PY 2019 Idaho Natural Gas Impact Evaluation Report. Program Participation Summary This section summarizes Fuel Efficiency sector participation and progress toward PY 2019 goals for the Nonresidential Site Specific path, Residential programs, and Low-Income programs. Table 23 shows savings goals, reported savings, and percentage of goal for Nonresidential Site Specific, Multifamily Market Transformation, Residential, and Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures. Avista did not set savings goals for the Site Specific Fuel Efficiency measures outside of the Multifamily Market Transformation program. Table 23. Avista Portfolio Fuel Efficiency Reported Electric Savings Program Savings Goals (kWh) Reported Savings (kWh) Percentage of Goal Multifamily Market Transformation 234,960 300,230 128% Residential Fuel Efficiency 1,002,795 1,156,576 115% Low-Income Fuel Efficiency 101,640 37,808 37% Table 24 shows Avista’s PY 2019 participation goals and reported participation for Multifamily Market Transformation, Residential, and Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures. Avista did not set participation goals for Site Specific Fuel Efficiency measures outside of the Multifamily Market Transformation program. There were four Multifamily Market Transformation program participants and no Nonresidential Site Specific participants in PY 2019. 28 Table 24. Avista Portfolio Fuel Efficiency Reported Participation Fuel Efficiency Measure Participation Goalsa Participation Reporteda Percentage of Goal Multifamily Market Transformation 40 4 10% Residential Fuel Efficiency 141 143 101% Low-Income Fuel Efficiency 30 13 43% a Participation is defined as the number of rebates. Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Methodology The impact methodology for Fuel Efficiency measures is outlined below for the Nonresidential Site Specific path, Residential programs, and Low-Income programs. Nonresidential Site Specific Fuel Efficiency Impact Methodology Cadmus followed the same impact evaluation methodology for Fuel Efficiency measures as outlined in the Nonresidential Impact Evaluation Methodology section. The team randomly sampled one Multifamily Market Transformation program project in Washington for the evaluation of the Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency measures. Cadmus did not evaluate the single Nonresidential Site Specific Combined HVAC application in the Idaho Fuel Efficiency program; however, the team evaluated two applications with the same measure category in the electric and gas Site Specific programs and found realization rates of 100% on those two projects. Verification site visits involved verifying installed equipment type, make and model numbers, operating schedules, and set points. Residential Fuel Efficiency Impact Methodology Cadmus applied billing analysis results to evaluate electric consumption impacts for all Residential Fuel Efficiency measures using the methodology described previously in Billing Analysis. Cadmus also completed database review of all PY 2019 reported Residential Fuel Efficiency savings as well as document reviews for 50 Fuel Efficiency participants from Q1 PY 2018 through Q2 PY 2019. Low-Income Fuel Efficiency Impact Methodology To evaluate electric consumption impacts for the Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures, Cadmus conducted a database review (described above in the Database Review section) and billing analysis. The relatively low number of participants for the Low-Income program made it impractical for the billing analysis to isolate consumption impacts for specific measures. Using unit savings values provided in the TRM, Cadmus calculated electric consumption impacts for measures reported in the measure-tracking database. For Low-Income program measures in general (including Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures), the evaluation relied on results from the database review to determine evaluated electric energy consumption impacts. Fuel Efficiency Impact Evaluation Results The following sections summarize findings for the Nonresidential Site Specific path, Residential programs, and Low-Income programs Fuel Efficiency measures. All Fuel Efficiency measures provide positive electricity savings and negative natural gas savings because these measures replace electric space heating or water heating systems with equipment that uses natural gas. Negative savings, 29 reflecting negative avoided costs, are incorporated in the electric cost-effectiveness calculations. The team also report these negative savings in the PY 2019 Idaho Natural Gas Impact Evaluation Report. Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency Impact Findings Table 25 shows reported and evaluated electric energy savings for Avista’s Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency measures, along with realization rates, through PY 2019. Table 25. Nonresidential Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Findings Fuel Efficiency Measure Reported Savings (kWh) Evaluated Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Multifamily Market Transformation 300,230 300,230 100% Total 300,230 300,230 100% Cadmus did not identify any discrepancies affecting electric savings in the randomly sampled Multifamily Market Transformation program application based on the evaluation site visit and project documentation review. Residential Fuel Efficiency Impact Findings Table 26 shows measure-level billing analysis results used when calculating PY 2019 electric consumption impacts. The participant count and relative precision for each measure easily met requirements established to ensure meaningful results, which required a participant count of at least five and relative precision no greater than ±40% at the 90% confidence level. The billing analysis found the electric energy savings to be higher than predicted by the 2019 Avista TRM values for all but the wall heater measure. Realization rates relative to 2019 TRM values ranged from 63% for the wall heater measure to a high of 178%. Table 26. Residential Fuel Efficiency Analysis Results Measure 2019 Avista TRM Unit Energy Savings (kWh) na Pre- Installation Weather Normalized Usage (kWh) Annual Unit Energy Savings (kWh) Realizatio n Rate Relative Precision at 90% Confidence Participant State E Electric To Natural Gas Furnace 6,104 39 19,054 7,384 121% 16% Idaho E Electric To Natural Gas Furnace & Water Heat 8,513 35 19,284 9,789 115% 12% Idaho E Electric To Natural Gas Wall Heatera 10,624 9 17,597 6,745 63% 30% Idaho E Multifamily Electric to Natural Gas Furnace and Water Heat 4,566 21 12,259 8,133 178% 13% Idaho and Washingto n a The 2019 Avista TRM does not include the E Electric to Natural Gas Wall Heater measure. The TRM value shown is taken from the 2018 Avista TRM. 30 Table 27 shows reported, adjusted, and evaluated electric energy savings for the Residential Fuel Efficiency measures. Based on the measure-level billing analysis results listed in Table 26, Cadmus calculated a 102% realization rate for evaluated electric energy savings for the Residential Fuel Efficiency path. Table 27. Residential Fuel Efficiency Electric Impact Findings Fuel Efficiency Measure Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Evaluated Electric Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Residential Fuel Efficiency 1,156,576 1,010,460 1,181,596 102% Database review of Residential Fuel Efficiency measures resulted in roughly a 12% reduction in adjusted savings, primarily because reported savings in some instances used a higher UES value than the 2019 TRM value. Because billing analysis produced valid estimates for all Residential Fuel Efficiency measures, adjusted savings had no effect on evaluated savings. In reviewing documentation for 50 Residential Fuel Efficiency measures, Cadmus found issues with two conversions to gas furnaces: documentation for each site indicated that the furnace replaced an oil-fired heating system. The team eliminated electricity savings for the natural gas furnaces, given that the replaced system did not use electric heating. These adjustments led to a document review realization rate of 97%, but Cadmus did not apply document review results to estimate evaluated savings because billing analysis produced valid estimates for all Residential Fuel Efficiency measures. Low-Income Fuel Efficiency Impact Findings Table 28 shows reported and adjusted electric energy savings for Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures. Table 28. Low-Income Fuel Efficiency Program Electric Impact Findings Fuel Efficiency Measure Reported Electric Savings (kWh) Adjusted Electric Savings (kWh) Evaluated Electric Savings (kWh) Realization Rate Low-Income Fuel Efficiency 37,808 37,808 37,808 100% Cadmus found no discrepancies between reported and TRM UES values for electric energy savings with Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures, leading to a realization rate of 100% for electric energy savings. The billing analysis estimated a realization rate of 144% for Low-Income Fuel Efficiency electric savings, with a relative precision of ±27% at the 90% confidence level. Participation was not high enough to estimate savings at the measure level, which is necessary for calculating cost-effectiveness, but the results do indicate greater electric savings for Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures as a whole than indicated by 2019 Avista TRM values. This finding also supports the natural gas billing analysis finding that the natural gas penalties for Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures are much higher than estimated by the 2019 Avista TRM (see PY 2019 Idaho Natural Gas Impact Evaluation Report). Together, the electric and natural gas billing analysis results suggest a much greater heating load than indicated by TRM values, which is evident as the heating load shifts from electricity to natural gas. 31 Fuel Efficiency Conclusions and Recommendations Nonresidential Site Specific and Multifamily Market Transformation Fuel Efficiency measures achieved evaluated savings of 300,230 kWh, yielding a 100% realization rate. The Multifamily Market Transformation Fuel Efficiency measures achieved 128% of the electric energy savings goal of 234,960 kWh. Residential Fuel Efficiency measures achieved evaluated savings of 1,181,596 kWh, yielding a 102% realization rate and achieving 118% of savings goal. Cadmus recommends that Avista update TRM values to match measure-level UES values calculated by the billing analysis. Cadmus also recommends that Avista ensure all measures are represented in the TRM. For Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures, evaluated savings were 37,808, with a realization rate of 100%, but fell short of Avista’s savings goals, achieving 37% of the savings target and 43% of the participation target. Billing analysis indicated that program electric savings are likely higher, based on the billing analysis realization rate of 144% for Low-Income Fuel Efficiency measures as a whole. Based on this finding, Cadmus recommends increasing the Avista TRM UES values.