20201015Application.pdf

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Avista Corp.
l4l l EastMission P.O. Box3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-05N
Telephone [phone]
Toll Free 800-727-9170
October 15,2020
Diane Hanian, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
1 1331 W. Chinden Blvd. Bldg. 8, Ste. 201-4
Boise,Idaho 83714
RE: CaseNo.AVII-E-20-jO
DearMs. Hanian
Attached for filing with the Commission is Avista Corporation's, doing business as Avista
Utilities' ("Avista or "the Company") filingin compliancewithOrderNos.3269T and32802,b
update the Company's load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contact information coryonents of
the incremental cost Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided costmethodolory.
The Company has not included in this filing the capacity deficiency date per recommendation
number four (4) in Case No. AVU-E-19-01. Avista will be filing, under separate letter the
establishment of its capacity deficiency period to be used for avoided cost calculations. The
Company will also file an updated capacity deficiency report after acknowledgment of its 2020
IRP to establish a new deficiency date for the SAR avoided capacity cost.
Please direct any questions regarding this filing to John Lyons at 509-495-8515
Sincerely,
lolslarrn ge*zH
Shawn Bonfield
Sr. Managerof Regulatory Policy & Statery
AvistaUtilities
509-495-2782
shawn. b onfield@ avistac orp.c om
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Enclosure
MchaelG. Andrea (ISBNo. 8308)
SeniorCounsel
Avista Corporation
141 1 East Mission, MSC-1 7
Spokane, WA99202
Phone: [phone]
Facsimile: (509) 7 7 7 -5468
Email: michael. andrea@vistacorp. com
Attorney for Avista Corporation
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA CORPORATION'S)
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE )
THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE )
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL )
TO BE USED FOR AVOIDED COST )
CASE NO. AVU-E-2O- IO
TIONS
AVISTA CORPORATION'S
COMPLIANCE FILING
32697 ,theCommissiondirected thatafterthe filingof a utility's IRP thata case be initiated
to determine the capacity deficiency period to be utilized in the Surrogate Avoided
Resource (SAR) Methodology. 3
III. LOAD FORECAST
The Company's mostrecentpeakand energy forecastwas developod inthe summer
of 2020. The recent energy load forecast escalates at 0.2 percent annual average growtr
rate for 2021 throughz04l. The peak forecast growth rate 0.37 percent in winter and
0.44o/o for summer forthe 2021 througtt?0/.l period.
Table 1: Peak and Energy Load Forecast
Year Energy
(aMw)
l-HourPeak
(Mw)
2021 t.097 1.712
2022 t.t02 r,719
2023 1,106 t.725
2024 1,107 1,729
2025 t.tt4 1,733
2026 l,ll7 1,738
2027 1.1 l9 t.742
2028 l,l2l 1.746
2029 1.r24 1.751
2030 t.t25 1,756
2031 T,I27 t.761
2032 1.128 t.766
2033 1,130 1,771
2034 1.131 t.777
2035 I,133 1,783
2036 1.135 t.789
2037 r.t37 1"796
2038 1.139 1.804
2039 1.141 1,812
2040 1,144 1,821
204r t.147 1.830
2lP a ge
3 OrderNo. 32697 page 23.
IV. NATURAL GAS FORECAST
The Company's mostrecentForward Price Curve was developedusingthe blend
of two national price forecasting consultant's most recent forecasts, the U.S. Enerry
lnformation Administration's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), and forward marketprices
as of June 30, 2020. Please refer to Table 2 for the natural gas price forecast.
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Year
Henry
Hub
($/mmbtu;
Stanfield
($/mmbtu)
2021 2.61 2.08
2022 2.43 1.90
2023 2.50 t.79
2024 2.68 1.90
2025 2.97 2.27
2026 3.39 2.67
2027 3.56 2.89
2028 3.7 5 3.09
2029 3.94 3.26
2030 4.10 3.43
203r 4.22 3.60
2032 4.39 3.74
2033 4.63 4.00
2034 4.85 4.22
2035 5.02 4.34
2036 5.19 4.50
2037 s.42 4.72
2038 5.55 4.88
2039 5.82 4.23
2040 6.02 5.30
2041 6.03 s.32
3lPage
V. CONTRACT ADDITIONS AND TERMINATIONS
Since ttre 2019 filingAvista's has signedfive newlong-term PURPA confacb and
one PPA purchase. The PURPA contacts include continued hydroelectric contacts wiffr
the City of Spokane, Meyers Falls and Sheep Creek; a continued biomass contract wilh
Stimson Lumber, and a new solar contact with Great Northern. The PPA is for a battery
with Purcell. Little or no power is expected to be delivered under this PAA. The PPA is
to account foranypowerthatsellermight inadvertently deliverwhile itis testing its battery
systems. To date, seller has not delivered any power under this PPA.
YI. MODIFIED PROCEDURE
A hearing is not necessary to consider the issues presented herein and, therefore,
Avista respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modifred Procodure,
i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq. If the Commission
determines that a technical hearing is necessary, the Company is prepared to present
testimony in such hearing.
vrr. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802. The Company
respectfully requests that the Commission issue an order accepting its updated load
forecast, nafural gas forecast, and contact information
DATED at Spokane, Washington, this 15m day of October, 2020.
AVISTA CORPORATION
/s/ Michael G. Andrea
Michael G. Andrea
SeniorCounsel
4lPage
Avista Loads
(2020 F orecastl 2021 IRP)
l. Hour Peak (MW)Year Jan Feb iiar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak
'1.7122021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
't,712
1,719
1,725
1,729
't,733
1,738
1,742
'1,76
'1,751
1,756
1,761
1,766
1,771
1,777
1,783
1,789
1,796
1,804
1,812
1,821
1,830
1,611
1,619
1,624
1,628
1,632
1,636
1,640
'1,644
1,648
1,653
1,658
1,662
1,668
1,673
1,679
1,685
't,692
1,699
1,707
1,715
1,725
1,492
1,499
1,504
1,508
1,511
'1,515
1,519
1,523
1,527
1,531
1,535
1,540
't,545
1,550
1,555
1,561
1,568
1,575
1,582
1,591
1,600
1,327
1,333
1,338
1,U1
1,344
1,347
1,351
1,354
1,358
1,fi2
1,366
1,370
1,374
't,379
1,384
1,390
1,396
1,402
1,410
1,418
't,426
,33't
,339
,345
,349
,353
,357
,361
,366
,370
,375
,380
,385
,391
,397
,,103
1,458
1,466
1,473
1,477
1,42
1,487
't,491
1,496
1,50'1
1,506
't,512
1,517
't,523
't,529
1,536
1,54i)
1,550
1,558
1,567
1,576
't,587
1,616
1,626
1,633
1,638
1,643
1,648
1,653
1,659
1,664
1,670
1,676
1,682
1,688
1,695
1,702
't,7't0
1,718
1,726
1,735
1,745
1,756
1,608
1,6 t8
't,625
1,630
1,635
1,640
1,6,{5
1,651
1,656
1,662
1,668
1,674
1,680
1,687
1,694
1,701
1,709
1,718
1,727
1,737
1,747
1,386
1,394
1,400
1,405
1,409
1,413
1,418
1,422
1,427
1,432
1,437
1,443
1,448
1,4541,fi'l
1,47
't,474
1,482
1,490
1,500
1,510
1,361
1,%7
1,372
1,375
1,379
1,382
1,385
1,389
1,393
1,397
1,Nl
1,q5
1,410
1,414
't,420
1,425
1,431
1,438
1,445
1,453
1,62
Oct
1,545
1,552
1,557
1,561
1,565
1,568
1,572
1,576
1,580
1,585
1,589
1,594
1,599
1,604
1,6 t0
1,616
1,622
1,630
1,637
'1,646
1,655
703
71'l
717
721
725
729
7U7fi
743
747
752
757
763
1,719
1,725
't,729
1,733
1,7U
1,409
't,416
1,424
1,432
1,441
1,451
1,768
1,774
1,781
1,788
1,795
1,803
1,812
1,822
,742
,76
,751
,756
,761
,766
,771
,777
,783
,789
,796
,804
,812
,82',1
,830
AVG
0.33olo
Monthly Average Load (aMW)Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
't,281
1,283
1,291
't,296
1,302
1,305
't,307
1,310
1,313
1,315
't,3't7
1,318
1,209
1,224
1,230
1,194
1,241
1,244
1,24
1,249
1,252
1,253
1,255
1,257
't,259
1,260
1,262
1,264
1,266
1,269
1,271
1,274
1,278
1,105
'1 ,109
1, 1 16
1,121
1,125
1,127
1,130
1,132
1,135
1,136
'1,138
1,139
1,'t41
1,008
1,017
1,022
1,026
1,029
1,031
1,033
1,035
'1,038
1,039
1,040
1,042
1,043
1,045
1,046
1,048
1,050
1,052
1,054
1,056
1,059
958
964
969
973
976
978
980
982
984
986
987
988
990
991
992
994
996
998
1,000
1,002
1,005
995
1,000
1,005
1,008
'1,010
1,013
1,015
1,0't7
1,019
1,020
1,022
1,023
1,025
1,026
1,027
1,029
1,03'l
1,033
1,035
1,038
1,040
'|,095
1,100
1,103
1,106
't,109
't,112
1.',t14
't,079
1,082
1,086
1,090
1,093
1,095
't,098
1,100
1j02
't,104
1,105
1,107
1,108
1,1 10
1,112
1,113
1,115
1,117
1,120
1,122
1,125
976
980
983
986
989
991
993
995
997
998
1,000
't,001
1,002
1,004
1,005
't,007
1,009
1,0't0
'I ,0't 3
1 ,015
't,018
1,007
1,009
1,012
1 ,015
1 ,018
't,020
1,022
't,024
't,026
1,028
1,029
1,031
1,032
1,033
1,035
1,037
1,038
1,0q
1,043
1,O.ts
'1,0,l8
1,155
1,159
1,',t62
1,166
1,169
't,'t72
't,'t74
1,',t76
't,179
1,181
1,182
1,184
1,185
1,187
1,'189
1,'191
1,193
1,195
1,198
1,200
1,204
't,294
1,297
1,302
1,307
1,313
1,097
1,102
1,106
1,107
1,114
1,1',t7
1,119
1,121
1,124
1,125
1,127
1,128
1,130
1,131
'1,133
'1,'135
1,137
't,139
1,141
1,144
1,147
,315
,318
,320
,322
,324
,326
,328
,331
,334
,337
.341
142
't44
18
148
150
152
155
158
31
3
,1 16
,1'19
,'t20
,122
,123
,'t25
,126
,128
,130
,'t32
,134
,136
,139
,'142
321
324
326
327
329
33'1
333
335
337
339
342
3,15
348
352
31
12
0.23o/o
Days 31 28
2
30
4
31
5
30
6
31
7
31I 30I 31
10
30
11Month