20200529Attachment C.pdf

Attachment C
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January 2020 David James, Avista Wildfire Plan Mgr
Avista lnternal Work Product Attachment C
This report details the 1O-year cost forecast associated with Avista's 2020 Wildfire
Resiliency Plan and is consistent with a risk analysis report published in September
2019: "Wildfire Risk Analysis Summary, Proposed Actions, September 2019".
This report will focus on forecasted capital investments and operating expenses based
on the recommendations from the Risk Analysis Summary. This report reflects a
refinement in scope versus that of the Risk Analysis Summary and includes preliminary
cost estimates. Several estimates are based on results of Avista's Subiect-Mafter-
Expert Fire Workshops (June 2019). while others reflect parametric estimates based on
subsequent efforts to develop the Wildland Urban lnterface (WU!) map. Feasibility
estimates generally reflect accuracy levels between 30 and 50%. Definitive cost
estimates require final engineering design and contractual commitments for materials
and labor.
PLAN LEVEL FORECAST
Consistent with the Risk Analysis Summary, this report is based on a 10-year planning
horizon from 2020 to 2029, with activities grouped into four main categories:
1. Enhanced Vegetatlon Management - This includes actions in excess of Avista's
current Vegetation Management program and reflects a focus on reducing fire
ignition events. Plan elements include collecting vegetation data via digital hi-
resolution photography and Light lmaging, Detection, and Ranging (LIDAR),
increasing the frequency of the Risk Tree treatments in fire prone areas, and
conducting a public outreach campaign associated with 'right tree-right place'
concepts.
2. Situational Awareness -This category includes extending Supervisory Control and
Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems to a portion of Avista's thirty-three non-
communication substations (dark stations). Using SCADA to monitor and control
powerlines is a fundamental tenant of utility wildfire plans across the western U.S.
and Canada. Avista also plans to develop a web-based fire-weather dashboard';
combining publicly available weather and fire threat information to inform
operational readiness and enable enhancements to the Dry Land Mode (DLM)
distribution protection scheme.
jistsraPAGE 2
Avista lnternal Work Product Attachment C
3. Operatlons "Toolkif & Metrlcs -Avista has a number of existing work processes
and programs aimed at reducing the impact of wildfire. Enhancements to existing
programs and the addition of other 'operating' elements are included in this group.
4. Grid Hardening & Dry land Mode - Avista developed a non-reclosing distribution
protection scheme back in the early 2000's to mitigate fire ignitions. The protection
scheme known internally as Dry Land Mode (DLM)will be updated to ensure
alignment with program objectives. Additionally, infrastructure replacements or
grid hardening will be implemented to reduce fire ignitions.
The total cost forecast of these efforts is depicted in the following graphs. The 1O-year
capital cost forecast is $268.965.000 with a corollary operatinq expense cost of
$59.636.0001. By far, the largest capital investmenf is assocrated with electric
distribution grid hardening ($1 93,200,000).
Significant operating expenses include enhancements to Avista's vegetation
management program including annual risk tree removals in fire prone areas. These
additional measures account for $48,600,000 of the 10-year oper:ating expense
forecast.
1 All operating expenses provided in this report reflect incremental amounts above existing expense levels
and are specific to the wildfire resiliency plan.
PAGE 3
Avista lnternal Work Product Attachment C
The following graphs reflect the 1O-year cost forecasts of system and transmission level
programs and those associated solely with electric distribution. System-wide elements
include: personnel training, revisions to work processes, metrics tracking along with
fire-protective pole wraps and widening transmission rights-of-way. As noted, the single
largest investment element is the grid hardening of the electric distribution system.
Electric system outage history eC13-2018) indicates a 50:1 ratio between sustained
distribution and transmission system outages. Of particular note are the pole fires
associated with the distribution system. From 2013 to 2018, there were over 90 pole
fires on an annua! basis. These fires generally follow periods of hot dry weather
combined with a Iight rain which increases leakage current across insulators and wood
cross-arms. Excessive leakage current produces pole fires. Also, the rate of vegetation
contacts is higher on the distribution system yielding a distribution to transmission
vegetation contact ratio of 100:1. Since the bulk of potential fire ignitions occur on
distribution circuits, efforts to reduce vegetation contacts and equipment failures are
aligned with those assets.
The 1}-year cosf forecast for capital investments and support sysfems on the
fransmission grid total $52,525,000 with an operating expense of $15,068,000.
PAGE 4
Avista lntemal Work Product Attachment C
As noted, the largest capital spend program is the effort to 'harden'the distribution grid
by replacing wood cross-arms, removing small copper wire, replacing obsolete
insulators, and installing wildlife guards. Operating expenses reflect efforts to enhance
vegetration management including conducting public outreach to replace tall growing
trees such as maples and pines with lower growing species Iike plums and dogwoods.
The accumulated 10-year cost forecast for distribution system capita! is $216,400,000
with an operating expense of $44,569,000.
2020-2029 Avista Wildfire Resiliency Plan Cost Forecast
System & Transmission . $52,525,000 $15,068,000
Electric Distribution $216,400,000 $44,569,000
: Plan Total . $2og,gos,ooo i $59,636,000
PAGE 5
Avista lnternal Work Product Attachment C
1,0 ENHANCED VEGETATION MANAGEMENT
The single largest contributor to possible fire
ignition events on Avista's T&D system is electrical
contact between energized powerlines and
vegetation. Between 2013 and 2018, there were
nearly 2,000 vegetation contacts to the electric
distribution system. Though many of these
contacts occur during winter storm events, nearly
4Oo/o of contacts occur during the summer months.
Adapting and innovating Avista's vegetation
management system is a primary objective of the
Wildfire Resiliency Plan. One element of the plan
is to collect digital data for 1O0o/o of Avista's
transmission system (2,270 miles) and
approximately 40o/o of the distribution system
(3,040 miles).
lnformation in this section reflects
findings from the "WjlS!fireBlSE
Analvsis Summarv. Seotember 201 9".
lndividualplan elements are coded
with an alphanumeric such as ST-2 or
D-3. 'ST" indicates System &
Transmission and reflects elements
such as the fire-weather dashboard
and others specific to the transmission
grid like protective FR mesh wraps for
wood poles. 'D'indicates elements
specific to the electric distribution
system such as midline recloser
communications (D-1 2) where
communication systems will be added
to circuit reclosers.
The 10-year cost forecast for enhanced vegetation includes a capital investment of
$5,100,000 and operating expenses of $51,175,000. This is the largest operating
expense category.
7, ir00
(i, c00
s,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-o
o
Enhanced Vegetation Management
Plan Cost Forecast
(-ar)ital Operat[]g
202 0
5i0
2,275
202 1
510
4,400
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jittsraPAGE 6
Avista lnternal Work Product
Transmission Digital Data Collection
Fuel Reduction Partners (DNR, lDL, USFS)
Widen Transm ission Rights-of-Way
Vegetation Management included in
distribution designs
Distribution Annual Risk Tree in WUt areas
Public Outreach 'Right Tree-Right Place'
Distribution Digital Data Collection
Vegetation Total
6,825
1,500
0
0
0 25,500
0 9,600
0 7,750
S5,1oo Ssl,t7s
$ shown in 000's
Attachment C
sT-5
sT-7
sT-9
D4
0
0
5,000
100
D-10
D-11
D-14
Enhanced Vegetation Management Plan Elements
ST-5 & D-14 Digital Data Gollection - This includes aerial surveys and post flight
processing of high resolution photography and laser imaging (LIDAR) to identify
structure integrity issues (i.e. broken cross-arms, hot splices, code clearance violations,
and unauthorized attachments) and vegetation encroachments including conductor
clearance to the vegetation undergrowth and identification of risUdanger trees.
ST-7 Fuel Reduction Partners - Avista plans to partner with County Fire Districts and
State agencies including the Department of Natural Resources (WA) and ldaho
Department of Lands to reduce fuel loading near critical infrastructure sites such as
major substations and transmission corridors.
ST-9 Transmission Rights-of-Way - Many of Avista's transmission easements do not
specify width nor do they provide clear language to remove danger trees. Modernizing
these transmission rights-of-way is a significant effort to reduce the risk of vegetation
contact.
D-4 Vegetation Management embedded in design - This acknowledges the need to
include vegetation clearing associated with both greenfield new construction and
brownfield reconstruction efforts.
D-l0 Annual Risk Tree - To conduct annual assessments and removal of risk trees
associated with overhead distribution circuits.
D-l1 Public Outreach "Right Tree-Right Place" - For many years Avista has
encouraged property owners to plant low growing trees near powerlines. This effort
would pair a public media campaign with field efforts to remove and replace trees.
jitrsraPAGE 7
Avista lnternal Work Product Attachment C
2.0 SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
The ability to monitor and control transmission and distribution systems is a
fundamenta! tenant to effective risk mitigation. Avista operates 165 substations. Thirty-
three of those substations are not connected to transmission SCADA or the distribution
management system (DMS). Adding SCADA and/or DMS capability aligns with the Dry
Land Mode protection scheme and allows system operators to remotely configure
substation reclosers. ln addition, Avista plans to develop a fire-weather heads-up
display that combines current weather forecasts with fire threat indices.
The 10-year cost forecast for situational awareness includes a capital investment of
$17,965,000 and operating expenses of $1,019,000.
sr-2
D-12
D-15
Fire-Weather Dashboard
M idline Recloser Communications
100% Substation SCADA
425
540
550
272
17,000 97
17,965 1,019
$ shown in 000's
.iittsraPAGE 8
Avista lntemal Work Product Attachment C
Situational Awareness Plan Elements
ST-2 Fire-Weather Dashboard - Develop a web-based display combining near term
weather forecasts with prevailing fire threat conditions. This dashboard will be used to
inform operational posture and manage the Dry Land Mode program.
D-l2 Midline Recloser Communications - Retrofit modern distribution midline
reclosers with cellular modems to enable remote operation, configuration, and
monitoring of distribution circuits in WUI Risk Tiers 2 and 3.
D-15 100% Substation SCADA - Add substation communication systems to non-com
stations located in or near WUI Tier 2 and 3 areas.
3.0 "OPERATIONS TOOLKIT" & METRICS TRACKING
During the Wildfire Risk Workshops conducted in June of 2019, a number of
opportunities were identified to elevate the Avista's operational readiness during fire
season. Avista has a long history of working within highly regulated compliance
environments such as the Federal Department of Transportation for natural gas
operations, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the transmission system,
and Environmental Protection Agency's clean air and water requirements to name a
few. The Wildfire Plan elements will also be held to compliance level oversight.
The 1O-year cost forecast for the operations toolkit includes a capital investment of
$300,000 and operating expenses of $2,285,000.
PAGE 9
Avista lnterna! Work Product Attachment C
sr-1
sT-3
sT4
sr-8
D-1
D-2
D-3
D-5
D-7
D-9
EOP & Fire ICS Representative
Engineering Review Major Events
Wildfire Compliance Tracking
Emergency Responder Tra ining
Fuse Coordination Study
Recloser Event Reporting
Fire lgnition Tracking System
Fire Suppression 'wetting' agent
WUI layer in GIS
Arcos Wildfire Notification
Ops Toolkit & Metrics Total
0s0
100 0
0 150
0 1,300
0 200
0 400
200 100
0s0
030
05
300 2,285
$ shown in 000's
"Operations Toolkit" & Metrics Tracking Plan Elements
ST-l EOP & Fire IGS Representative - Aligns Avista's Emergency Operating Plan
(EOP) with the Wildfire Resiliency Plan to account for the labor costs of embedding
Avista personnel in 100% of all County, State, and Federal lncident Command
Structures (lCS).
ST-3 Engineering Review Major Events - Require a 24-48 hour stand-down period
following major transmission events to allow for an engineered reconstruction plan.
ST-4 Wildfire Gompliance Tracking - System level metric tracking of the Plan
elements.
ST-8 Emergency Responder Training - Provide annual fire safety training for electric
operating personnel as well as electric hazard safety training delivered to fire protection
personnel.
D-l Fuse Coordination Study - This is an annual effort to ensure proper coordination
of distribution system fuses.
D-2 Recloser Event Reporting - To conduct engineering review of recloser events in
WUI areas.
D-3 Fire lgnition Tracking System - Adapting Avista's Outage Management System
(OMS) to capture fire ignition outcomes.
D-5 Fire Suppression 'wetting' agent - Use of chemical additives such as 'cold fire' to
maintain the 'wetting' action of water.
D-7 WUI Layer in GIS - Annual maintenance of Avista's Wildland Urban lnterface
system.
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Avista lntemal Work Product Attachment C
D-9 Arcos Wildfire Notification - Provide annual dispatcher training on the use and
implementation of the Arcos call-out system to provide real time fire updates to key
personnel; including executive management.
4.0 GRID HARDENING AND "NEXT GEN" DRY LAND MODE
Since the early 2000's, Avista has adapted the
protection of distribution circuits in fire prone
areas. lntemally, this program to disable both
instantaneous tripping and a utomatic reclosi ng
is known as.Dry Land Mode". Avista will
conduct a holistic review of this program and will
re@mmend program changes including adding
midline reclosers.
!I
ln order to reduce ignition events and to
effectively'harden' the system against the
impacts of fire, a number of programmatic
measures are recommended to replace wood
structures, remove small copper wire, add
wildlife guards, and to protect wood poles with
fire-retrardant (FR) mesh wrap. This is by far the
largest capita! investment of the plan and
represents alignment with other regional utilities
including Northwestem, ldaho Power, Chelan
PUD, Portland General Electric, and PacifiCorp.
The 10-year cost forecast for grid hardening and
dry land mode includes a capital investment of
$245,600 and operating expenses of
$5,157,000.
Efforts to Harden the distribution grid
include the replacements of wood with
steel poles. 'High-Value Poles" in fire
prone areas will be systematically
replaced with steelto mitigate
damage and outages during wildfire
events.
Distribution midline reclosers will
play an important role in Avista
Next Generation Dry Land Mode
program. The ability to quickly
detect and de-energize circuits is
paramount to reducing fire ignition
events.
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.iistsraPAGE 11
Avista lnternal Work Product
Wood Pole Fire Retardant Mesh Wrap
Structure Integrity Line Patrols
l Expedited Fire Response
Additional Transmission Patrols in WUI
Transmission Grid Hardening
Dry Land Mode'Effectiveness' Study
Dry Land Mode'Trigger'
Additional M idline Reclosers
WA Grid Hardening in WUlTiers 2-3
lD Grid Hardening in WUI Tiers 2-3
, Grid Hardening & DLM Total
2,000
0
o
5,400
120,000
73,2OO
100
1i, 245,6fl),5,157
$ shown in 000's
Attachment C
sr-6
sr-10
sr-11
sr-rz
sr-13
D-6
D-8
D-13
D-16
D-t7
0 2,500
0l
93
20
0
o
444
PAGE 12
Avista Internal Work Product Attachment C
Grid Hardening and Dry Land Mode Plan Elements
5T-6 Wood Pole Fire Retardant Mesh Wrap - This is a program to add fire retardant
mesh wraps on transmission poles subject to ground levelfires (e.9. channeled
scablands, agricultural areas, and dry grasslands.) Avista is cunently using fire
retardant pole paint and is considering moving to a more permanent mesh wrap.
ST-10 Structure lntegrity Line Patrols - Provides additional funds for capital follow-up
work to ensure that defects likely to produce ignition are treated prior to fire season.
ST-11 Expedited Fire Response - This is an agreement with fire protection agencies to
patrol transmission fault events during fire season.
ST-12 Additional Patrols in WUI - An annual line inspection patrol specific to fire
ignition and fire impact hazards.
ST-13 Transmission Grid Hardening - To convert existing transmission wood to steel
Structures in WUlTiers 2 & 3.
D-6 Dry Land Mode'Effectiveness Study'- Review Avista's summer operating mode
including electric circuits in WUI Tier 2 & 3 areas.
D-8 Dry Land Mode'Trigger'- Monitor US Forest Service Fire Threat lndex to
implement DLM. This is a GIS based system.
D-l3 Additiona! Midline Reclosers - Enhance DLM to require the installation of
several circuit reclosers and communications systems.
D-16 WA Grid Hardening in WUI Tier 2-3 - The Washington component of distribution
grid hardening includes replacing wood cross-arms with fiberglass, replacing small
copper conductor, installing select steel poles, and adding wildlife guards to fuses,
arrestors, and transformer bushings.
D-17 tD Grid Hardening in WUI Tier 2-3 - The ldaho component of the above element.
PAGE ,I3
Avista lnternal Work Product Attachment C
ADDENDUM
Wildland Urban lnterface
Assessing the risk of wildfire and aligning
treatments to reduce that risk is the objective of
Avista's Wildfire Resiliency Plan. The concept
of Wildfire Urban lnterface (WUl) has emerged
as a widely adopted method for quantifying that
risk. At Avista, we recognize that our T&D
facilities are both vulnerable to the impact of fire
(consequence of fire) and are a potential source
of fire ignition (probability of fire). Avista's Plan
is squarely focused on reducing both fire
consequence and probability. Jake Jacobs, GIS
Specialist, has developed a WUI map based on
Avista's electric distribution system, housing
density, and Wildfire Hazard Potential data as
provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
As referenced in "Wildfire Risk Analysis
Summary, September 2019" and in this report,
the WUI risk map allows Avista to target
treatments to reduce fire risk to our customers,
the communities that we serve, and to
safeguard our employees. The importance of
aligning actions with risk cannot be overstated.
A larger version of the WUI map is reprinted on the following page. The WUI is divided
into three tier levels:
Tier 1 (Low) - Yellow Highlight - Geographic areas with <10% of Wildfire
Hazard Potential (WHP) rated at moderate fuel levels or higher.
Tler 2 (Elevated) - Orange Highlight - Geographic areas with 10-50% of WHP
rated at moderate fuels levels or higher.
Tier 3 (High) - Red Highlight - Geographic areas with 50-100% of WHP rated at
moderate fuel levels or higher.
Areas not highlighted fall below the criteria for WUI either because they are heavily
populated (cities) and have well developed fire defense mechanisms or they are so
sparsely populated that the consequence of fire is low. Do not confuse the WUI map
with fire probability. Most national forest lands fall outside of the WUI because human
development is low or non-existent. The WUI map indicates where human development
is most at-risk from the impact of wildfire.
Note that most of Avista's vegetation and system hardening efforts will be
targeted in the WUI Tier 2 and 3 areas.
PAGE 14
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Avista lnternal Work Product Attachment C
Enhanced Vegetation Management
Historically, utility vegetation management systems were focused at maintaining
reliability service levels. However, over the past decade, utility trends are shifting
towards a more risk-based approach with fire risk mitigation as a primary factor.
The following chart and table indicates actual spend in Avista's distribution vegetation
program. The program has three main elements:
1. Planned Maintenance - to systematically trim and remove vegetation growing underneath or
directly adjacent to primary distribution circuits (13.2-34.5 kV). This program covered
approximately 20% of the system per year resulting in a S-year rotation cycle.
2. Unplanned Maintenance - Avista responds to customer reguests for tree trimming including
'internal' customers. The upward trend of unplanned work presents a significant resource
challenge and oftentimes erodes planned maintenance.
3. Risk Tree - in addition to proximity trimming, dead and dying trees within the strike distance of
the line are slated for removal. This oftentimes requires property owner consent as most of
these trees are located outside of established easement areas.
Risk Tree Shifts
to Wildfire
Resiliency
Starting in2O2O
2012-2018 - actual program spend indicated
2019-2020 - budget forecast amounts
D istri buti on Vegetation
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PAGE 16
Avista Intemal Work Product Aftachment C
Adding wildfire risk mitigation to the base vegetation program results in three actions:
1. Digital Data Collection -The industry is trending away from cadence based programs and
towards risk based programs. Avista plans to collect LTDAR data in the elevated fire risk areas
(WUl Tiers 2&3). This data will be used to design line clearance prescriptions, it will also serve as
an audit of prior work.
2. Annual Risk Tree- By separating the risk tree activities from planned maintenance, Avista will
prioritize risk tree removals on a risk-cost basis.
3. Right Tree-Right Pace - Avista plans to conduct a customer outreach program and encourage
the removal of tall growing trees with more compatible species. Tree that mature at a crown
height of 20-25 feet typically do not require trimming and do not pose a hazard for powerline
operation or maintenance.
lf one assumes a base vegetation spend of $8M/year, adding fire resiliency to the base
plan results an a cost forecast as shown below. This graph simply reflects the addition
of wildfire efforts to Avista's existing program with the exception of transitioning the risk
tree element to the wildfire plan.
Base Leve!
Distribution
Vegetation Plan
($8M/Year)
Wildfire + Distribution
Vegetati on Ma nage rne nt
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PAGE 17
Avista lnternal Work Product Attachment C
Cost Forecast Data
The bulk of this report
identifies the forecasted
annual costs associated
with the Wildfire Plan.
As with any forecast,
these values are subject
to revision and should
not be conflated as
definitive cost
estimates. However,
they do convey the
scope and breadth of
Avista's commitment to
promoting public safety
and to safeguarding
homes, property, and
infrastructure. The
various charts and
graphs included in this
report are based on this
dataset.
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