20191015Compliance Filing.pdf

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Avista Corp.
141 I East Mission P.O.Box 3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-0500
Telephone [phone]
Toll Free 800-721-9170
October 15,2019
VIA: Electronic Mail
Diane Hanian, Commission Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
11331 W. Chinden Blvd.
Building 8, Suite 201-A
Boise, Idaho 83714
RE: Case No. AVU-E-19-o t
Dear Ms. Hanian:
Attached for filing with the Commission is Avista Corporation's, dba Avista Utilities' ("Avista or
"the Compffiy"), filing in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802. The filing includes an
update to the Company's load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information components
of the incremental cost Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology.
The Company has not included in this filing the capacity deficiency date per recommendation
number four (4) in Case No. AVU-E-19-01. Avista will be filing, under separate letter the
establishment of its capacity deficiency period to be used for avoided cost calculations. The
Company will also file an updated capacity deficiency report after acknowledgment of its 2020
IRP to establish a new deficiency date for the SAR avoided capacity cost.
Please direct any questions regarding this filing to John Lyons at 509-495-8515.
Sincerely,
fu2,,,,-;
Linda Gervais
Sr. Manager, Regulatory Policy & Strategy
Avista Utilities
s09-495-497s
DAVID J. MEYER
VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF COUNSEL FOR
REGULATORY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS
AVISTA CORPORATION
P.O. BOX 3727
I411 EAST MISSION AVENUE
SPOKANE, WASHINGTON 99220-37 27
TELEPHONE: [phone]
tlavid. rncyer(4lav istacorp.coru
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA CORPORATION'S)
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE )
THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE )
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL )
TO BE USED FOR AVOIDED COST )
CASE NO. AVU-E-r9-.01
AVISTA CORPORATION'S
COMPLIANCE FILING
CALCULATIONS )
I. INTRODUCTION
Avista Corporation, doing business as Avista Utilities (hereinafter Avista or
Company), at l4l1 East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington, respectfully submits to
the ldaho Public Utilities Commission ("Commission"), in compliance with Order Nos.
32697 atd32802 in Case No. GNR-E-11-03, an update to the Company's load forecast,
natural gas forecast, and contract information components of the incremental cost
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology.
Communications in reference to this filing should be addressed to:
David J. Meyer, Esq.
Vice President and Chief Counsel for
Regulatory and Governmental Affairs
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
l4ll E. Mission Avenue, MSC-13
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
dar'!d.mc),er(4)av i-stacorp.con:
Linda Gervais
Sr. Manager, Regulatory Policy & Strategy
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
l4l1 E. Mission Avenue, MSC-27
Spokane, WA 9922A-3727
Phone: [phone]
I i rtt{a. gervai s(@avi stacorp.conr
II. BACKGROUND
In its final Order No, 32697 dated December 18, 2012,1 the Commission
determined that the inputs to the IRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed
Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) quali$,ing (QF) projects that
exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon
acknowledgment of the utility's IRP filing, with the exception of the load forecast, natural
gas forecast, and QF contract changes, which are to be updated annually. The date for the
annual update was changed from June to October of each year.2 Further, in Order No.
t Order No. 32697 page 22.
2 Order No. 32802 page 3.
l lPage
32697 ,the Commission directed that after the filing of a utility's IRP that a case be initiated
to determine the capacity deficiency period to be utilized in the Surrogate Avoided
Resource (SAR) Methodology.3
This filing is also consistent with Case No. AVU-E-19-01 concerning the
Company's request to extend the filing of its 2019 Electric Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
from August 31,2019 to February 29,2020. Commission Staffrequested that the Company
continue to file the annual IRP-method PURPA update by October 15,2019; file an
updated capacity dehciency amount and period for determining SAR avoided capacity cost
on October 15,2019 based on the 2017 tRP and most current load forecast and long-term
contract commitments; and file an updated capacity deficiency amount and period for
determining SAR avoided capacily cost after acknowledgment of the 2020 IRP.
III. LOAD FORECAST
The Company's most recent peak forecast for energy was developed in February of
2019, and the load forecast was developed in the Spring of 2019. The recent energy load
forecast escalates at a 0.3 percent annual average growth rate for 2020 through 2045. The
peak forecast growth rate is 0.34 percent in the Winter and 0.44o/o in the Summer for the
2020 throu gh 2045 period.
3 Order No. 32697 page 23.
2lP age
Table l: Peak and Energy Load Forecast
Year Energy
(aMw)
1-Hour Peak
(Mw)
2020 l,la2 1,726
2021 1,112 1,730
2022 l,l 18 1,733
2023 t,122 1,740
2024 1,128 1,740
2025 1,131 7,743
2026 1,133 1,747
2027 1,136 1,751
2428 1,139 r,754
2029 1,145 1,758
2030 1,145 1,762
2031 1,147 1,767
2032 1,r49 1,771
2033 1,151 1,776
2434 1,153 1,781
2035 1,155 1,796
2036 1,157 1,792
2037 l,l 59 1,798
2038 1.161 1,805
2039 1,164 1,812
2040 1,167 1,820
IV. NATURAL GAS FORECAST
The Company's most recent "F-orward Price Curve" was developed using the blend
of two national price forecasting consultant's most recent forecasts and forward market
prices as of June 12, 2019 . Please refer to Table 2 for the natural gas price forecast.
3lPage
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Year
Henry
Hub
($/mmbtu)
Stanfield
($/mmbtu)
2020 2.61 2.13
2021 2.63 2.r5
2022 2.6r 2.t6
2023 2.68 2.26
2024 2.91 2.41
2025 3.23 2.77
2026 3.50 2.9s
2027 3.64 3.03
2028 3.86 3.20
2029 4.09 3.39
2030 4.34 3.64
2031 4.57 3.97
2032 4.72 4.19
2433 4.99 4.54
2034 5.t2 4.71
203s 5.35 4.96
2036 5.54 5.18
243"1 s.88
6.22
5.53
2038 s.83
2039 6.57
2040 6.89
5.1 1
6.49
V. CONTRACT ADDITIONS AND TERMINATIONS
Since the 2018 filing, Avista has signed one new long-term PURPA contract,
three long-term PPA purchases, and two long term PPA contracts have expired. Further,
two additional contracts that expire at the end of 2019 are cunently being re-negotiated.
As for the other PPAs, Avista signed a 2}-yeag 144.5 MW wind PPA with Rattlesnake
Flatt, a 34.2 aMW sale of hydro power to Morgan Stanley from llll2020 through
4lPage
a The PURPA conffact is an extension of a previous contract at a new rate and term.
l2l3ll202l, arrd 46 aMW of biomass generation sale to Morgan Stanley from 3lll20l9
through 1213112023. Two long term PPA's also ended, including a 20 aMW sale from
llll20l5 through l2l3ll20l9 of system clean power to Direct Energy Business Marketing,
LLC, and the WNP-3 contract with The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) ended on
April30,2019.
vr. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information, in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802. The Company
requests that the matter be processed under the Commission's Modified Procedure rules
through the use of written comments. The Company respectfully requests that the
Commission issue an order accepting its updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information.
DATED at Spokane, Washington, this l4th day of October,2019
AVISTA CORPORATTON
David J. Meyer
Vice President and Chief Counsel for
Regulatory and Governmental Affairs
5lPage
By
l2l3ll202l, arrd 46 aMW of biomass generation sale to Morgan Stanley from 31112019
through l2l3l/2023. Two long term PPA's also ended, including a 20 aMW sale from
lnl}All through l2l3ll20l9 of system clean power to Direct Energy Business Marketing,
LLC, and the WNP-3 contract with The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) ended on
April 30,2019.
vI. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information, in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802. The Company
requests that the matter be processed under the Commission's Modified Procedure rules
through the use of written comments. The Company respectfully requests that the
Commission issue an order accepting its updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information.
DATED at Spokane, Washington, this l4th day of October,2019
AVISTA CORPORATION
By "-Z--7-
David J. Meyer
Vice President and Chief Counsel for
Regulatory and Governmental Affairs
5lPage
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