20181025Application.pdf

Avista Corp.
l4l I East Mission P.O. Box 3727
Spokane. Washingto n 99220 -0500
Telephone [phone]
Toll Free 800-727-9170
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October 24,2018
Diane Hanian, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Statehouse Mail
W - 472 Washington Street
Boise, Idaho 83720
RE: Case No. AVU-E-18-ll
Dear Ms. Hanian:
Attached for filing with the Commission is Avista Corporation's, doing business as Avista
Utilities, filing in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802, to update the load forecast,
natural gas forecast, and contract information components of the incremental cost Integrated
Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology and to establish its capacity deficiency period to
be used for avoided cost calculations. Enclosed is an original and seven (7) copies of Avista's
Application.
Please direct any questions regarding this filing to James Gall at 509-495-2189
Sincerely,
/y{Lh^"da, Getttw&
Linda Gervais
Sr. Manager, Regulatory Policy
Avista Utilities
s09-495-4975
I inda. gervai s@,avi stacorp. com
Enclosure
A'Eutsta
DAVID J. MEYER
VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF COUNSEL FOR
REGULATORY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS
AVISTA CORPORATION
P.O. BOX 3727
I4I1 EAST MISSION AVENUE
SPOKANE, WASHINGTON 99220 -37 27
TELEPHONE: [phone]
david.meyer@avi stacorp. com
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA CORPORATION'S)
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE )
THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE )
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL )
AND ESTABLISH ITS CAPACITY DEFICIENCY )
PERTOD TO BE USED FOR AVOIDED COST )
CASE NO. AVU-E-18-,r
AVISTA CORPORATION'S
COMPLIANCE FILING
I. INTRODUCTION
Avista Corporation, doing business as Avista Utilities (hereinafter Avista or
Company), at l4ll East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington, respectfully submits to
the Idaho Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing, in compliance with
Order Nos. 32697 and32802 in Case No. GNR-E-I1-03, to update the load forecast,
natural gas forecast, and contract information components of the incremental cost
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology. In addition, seeks approval
from the Commission of the capacity deficiency period to be utilized for the Company's
avoided cost calculations.
Communications in reference to this filing should be addressed to:
David J. Meyer, Esq.
Vice President and Chief Counsel for
Regulatory and Governmental Affairs
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
1411 E. Mission Avenue, MSC-I3
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
david.meyer@ avi stacorp. com
Linda Gervais
Sr. Manager, Regulatory Policy
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
1411 E. Mission Avenue, MSC-27
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
linda. gervai [e-mail]
II. BACKGROUND
In its final Order No. 32697t dated December 18, 2012, the Commission
determined that the inputs to the IRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed
Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) qualifying (QF) projects that
exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon
acknowledgment of the utility's IRP filing, with the exception of the load forecast, natural
gas forecast, and QF contract changes, which are to be updated annually. The date for the
I Order No. 32697 page 22.
I lPage
annual update was changed2 from June to October of each year. Further, in Order No.
32697,the Commission directed that after the filing of a utility's IRP that a case be initiated
to determine the capacity deficiency period to be utilized in the Surrogate Avoided
Resource (SAR) Methodology.3
III. LOAD FORECAST
The Company's most recent load forecast was developed in spring 2019 for energy
and late winter 2018 for peak. The recent energy load forecast escalates at0.43 percent
annual average growth rate. The peak forecast growth rate 0.33 percent.
Table 1: Peak and Energy Load Forecast
Year Energy
(aMW)
1-Hour Peak
(MW)
2019 1,078 1,677
2020 1,079 1,683
2021 1,086 1,689
2022 I ,091 1,695
1,096 1,700
2024 1,101 1,706
1,105 1,711
2026 l,l l0 1,717
2027 I,l l5 1,722
2028 1,120 1,728
2029 1,125 1,734
2030 1,129 1,739
2031 1,134 1,7 45
2032 1,139 1,7 5l
2033 1,144 1,7 56
2034 1,149 1,762
2035 1,154 1,768
2036 1,159 1,77 4
2037 1,164 1,780
2038 1,169 1,785
2039 1,174 1,791
2040 1,179 1,197
2 Order No. 32802 page 3.
3 Order No. 32697 page 23.
2lP age
2023
2025
IV. NATURAL GAS FORECAST
The Company's most recent Forward Price Curve was developed using the blend
of two national price forecasting consultant's most recent forecasts and forward market
prices as of October22,2018.
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Year
Henry
Hub
($/mmbtu)
Stanfield
($/mmbtu)
2019 2.86 2.24
2020 2.64 2.04
2021 2.61 2.0s
2022 2.91 2.42
2023 3.41 2.88
2024 3 _r7
4.00 3.4s
2026 4.21 3.63
2027 4.31 3.69
2028 4.36 3.73
2029 4.71 4.04
2030 5.10 4.43
203t 5.33 4.76
2032 5.67 5.09
2033 6.03 5.41
2034 6.31 5.80
2035 6.28 5.87
2036 6.40 6.0s
2037 6.70 6.34
2038 7.15 6.75
2039 7.s6 7 .11
2040 7.82 7.35
3lPage
3.75
2025
V. CONTRACT ADDITIONS AND TERMINATIONS
Avista's has signed three new long-term PURPA contracts since the 2017 filing
and two long term PPAs. Two of the PURPA contracts are extension of previous contracts
at a new rate and term, the other contract is for a hydro facility in Cove, Oregon. As for
PPAs, Avista signed a2)-year,28 MW (DC) solar PPA with Adams- Neilson Solar LLC
as part of a customer solar program in Washington State. In addition to this contract an
exchange agreement with Douglas County PUD was also signed with power deliveries
beginning on Oct 1,2078 and ending on Dec. 31,2023.
VI. MODIFIED PROCEDURE
Avista believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues presented
herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified
Procedure, i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq. If the
Commission determines that a technical hearing is necessary, the Company will be ready
to prepare and present its testimony in such hearing.
VII. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802, along with its
capacity deficiency period to be used for avoided cost calculations. The Company
respectfully requests that the Commission issue an order accepting its updated load
forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information.
4lPage
DATED at Spokane, Washington, this 24h day of October,2018.
AVISTA CORPORATION
By
David J. Meyer
Vice President and Chief Counsel for
Regulatory and Governmental Affairs
5lPage
ATTACHMENTA
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