20171012Application.pdf

/Elrrtsra
Avista Corp.
141 1 East Mission P.O.Box 3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-0500
Telephone [phone]
Toll Free 800-727-9170
October ll,20l7
Diane Hanian, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Statehouse Mail
W. 472 Washington Street
Boise,Idaho 83720
RE: Case No. AVU-E-l7-,0
Dear Ms. Hanian:
Attached for filing with the Commission is Avista Corporation's, doing business as Avista
Utilities, filing in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802, to update the load forecast,
natural gas forecast, and contract information components of the incremental cost Integrated
Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology and to establish its capacity deficiency period to
be used for avoided cost calculations. Enclosed is an original and seven (7) copies of Avista's
Application.
Please direct any questions regarding this filing to James Gall at 509-495-2189.
Sincerely,
/t{La^da, Qenta,&
Linda Gervais
Sr. Manager, Regulatory Policy
Avista Utilities
509-495-4975
linda. gervais@avistacorp. com
Enclosure
DAVID J. MEYER
VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF COUNSEL FOR
REGULATORY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS
AVISTA CORPORATION
P.O.BOX3727
I4I1 EAST MISSION AVENUE
SPOKANE, WASHINGTON 99220-37 27
TELEPHONE: (s09) 495-43t6
david.meyer@ avistacorp. com
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA CORPORATION'S)
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE )
THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE )
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL )
AND ESTABLISH ITS CAPACITY DEFICIENCY )
PEzuOD TO BE USED FOR AVOIDED COST )
CASE NO. AVU-E-I7- IO
AVISTA CORPORATION'S
COMPLIANCE FILING
I. INTRODUCTION
Avista Corporation, doing business as Avista Utilities (hereinafter Avista or
Company), at t4l1 East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington, respectfully submits to
the Idaho Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing, in compliance with
Order Nos. 32697 and32802 in Case No. GNR-E-11-03, to update the load forecast,
natural gas forecast, and contract information components of the incremental cost
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided costmethodology. In addition, the Company seeks
approval from the Commission of the capacity deficiency period to be utilized for the
Company's avoided cost calculations.
Communications in reference to this filing should be addressed to:
David J. Meyer, Esq.
Vice President and Chief Counsel for
Regulatory and Governmental Affairs
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
1411 E. Mission Avenue, MSC-13
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
david.meyer@ avistacorp. com
Linda Gervais
Sr. Manager, Regulatory Policy
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box3727
1411 E. Mission Avenue, MSC-27
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
linda. eervais@avistacorp. com
II. BACKGROUND
In its final Order No. 326971 dated December 18, 2012, the Commission
determined that the inputs to the IRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed
Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) qualifying (QF) projects that
exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon
acknowledgment of the utility's IRP filing, with the exception of the load forecast, natural
gas forecast, and QF contract changes, which are to be updated annually. The date for the
1 Order No. 32697 page 22.
l lPage
annual update was changed2 from June to October of each year. Further, in Order No.
32697,the Commission directed that after the filing of a utility's IRP that a case be initiated
to determine the capacity deficiency period to be utilized in the Surrogate Avoided
Resource (SAR) Methodology.3
Avista filed its 2017 Electric IRP with the Commission on August3I,2\fi4. Due
to the timing of the filing of its IRP, and after consultation with Commission Staff, the
Company hereby combines the two filing requirements established in Order no.32697.
III. LOAD FORECAST
The Company's most recent load forecast was developed in September,20lT for
energy and January,2017 for peak. The recent energy load forecast escalates at 0.43
percent annual average growth rate. The peak forecast growth rate 0.38 percent.
Table 1: Peak and Energy Load Forecast
Year Energy
(aMw)
l-Hour Peak
(MW)
2018 1,073 1,706
2019 1,078 1,713
2020 1,079 1,719
2021 1,086 1,726
2022 1,091 1,733
2023 1,096 1,739
2024 1,101 1,746
2025 1,105 1,753
2026 l,l 10 1,759
2027 1,1 l5 1,766
2028 1,120 1,773
2029 1,125 1,780
2030 1,129 1,787
2031 1,134 1,794
2032 1,139 1,801
2 Order No. 32802 page 3.
3 OrderNo.32697 page23
a Case No. AVU-E-17-08
2lP age
2034 1,149 1,815
203s 1,154 1,822
2036 1,159 1,829
2037 1,164 1,836
2038 1,169 1,843
2039 1,174 1,850
2040 1,179 1,857
2033 144 1 808
IV. NATURAL GAS FORECAST
The Company's most recent Forward Price Curve was developed using the blend
of a national price forecasting consultant most recent forecasts and forward market prices
as of September 28th, 2017 .
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Year
Henry
Hub
($/mmbtu)
Stanfield
($/mmbtu)
2018 $3.06 s2.68
2019 $2.90 $2.ss
2020 $2.84 $2.s0
202t $2.93 $2.s8
2022 $3.09 $2.7s
2023 $3.41 $3.07
2024 $4.00 $3.67
2025 $4.1 3 $3.82
2026 $4.1 4 $3.81
2027 $4.27 $3.94
2028 $4.46 $4.1r
2029 $4.7s $4.39
2030 $s.04 $4.66
203t $s.27 $4.90
2032 $s.42 $5.06
2033 $s.67 $s.28
2034 $s.9s $s.51
2035 $6.1 s $s.68
2036 $6.s3 $6.02
3lPage
2037 $6.71 $6.1 8
V. CONTRACT ADDITIONS AND TERMINATIONS
Avista has signed three new long-term PURPA contracts since the 2016 filing, with
only one of these being in Idaho, and no Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). The two
Washington PURPA contracts are with Deep Creek Energy LLC, the first extending the
prior agreement one year, then the second agreement is a five year extension through 2022.
The Idaho PURPA agreement is a two year agreement with Stimson Lumber.
VI. CAPACITY DEFICIENY PERIOD
Avista's 2017 IRP identifies the first deficit beginning by the end of 2026. Avista
has since updated its load forecasts and the first sustained capacity deficit begins in
December 2026 and October 2026 for energy based on the updated information. These
deficits are a direct result of the expiration of the Lancaster PPA. Figure I shows Avista's
net peak position for both winter and summer peak hour positions.
2038 $7.02 s6.44
2039 $7.1 8 $6.s7
2040 $7.38 s6.74
4lPage
Figure 1: Winter and Summer Peak Hour Load & Resource Balance
400
300
200
100
0
(100)
(200)
(300)
(400)
(500)
(600)
(700)
O O, O - c{ cO t lO (O N O o) C, - Sl dl, { tO (O N oO
- - $l (\l Gl Ol 6a N N N N N cl, 6D Gl, aD a'1, (O GO dl, d)o o c) cr o o o o o o c c 0 0 0 0 0 0 c, o oN Ot $a N (\t Ot Ga Ga (\t C{ N N N N N Gt (\t (\t (\t N N
VII. MODIFIED PROCEDURE
Avista believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues presented
herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified
Procedure, i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq. If the
Commission determines that a technical hearing is necessary, the Company will be ready
to prepare and present its testimony in such hearing.
VIII. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802, along with its
capacity deficiency period to be used for avoided cost calculations. The Company
respectfully requests that the Commission issue an order accepting its updated load
forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information and approve of its capacity
deficiency period, with a first capacity deficit occurring in December 2026.
og*,(E
=(E
o)o
=
r January
August
5lPage
DATED at Spokane, Washington, this I l th day of October , 2Ol7
AVISTA CORPORATION
By
David J. Meyer
Vice President and Chief Counsel for
Regulatory and Govemmental Affairs
6lPage
Avista Corporation
AVU-E-L7-
-
IRP Compliance Filing
Attachment
Avista Loads
(2017 Forecast)
1- Hour Peak (MW)
Year Jan Feb Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
203s
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
'1,690
1,697
1,703
1 ,710
1,716
1,486
1,492
'1,498
1,503
1,509
1 ,515
1,520
1,526
I Faa
1,538
1,544
1,550
1,555
1,561
1,567
1,573
1,579
1,585
1,591
1,597
1,604
1 ,610
1 ,616
Apr
1,318
1,323
,328
,333
,338
,343
,348
,353
,358
,363
,368
,373
,378
,383
,389
,394
200
,404
1,284
1,289
1,294
1,299
1,30s
1,3'10
'1,315
1,321
1,326
1,332
1,337
1,342
1,348
1,354
1,359
1,365
1,370
1,376
1,382
1,387
1,393
1,399
1,404
953
965
962
964
971
976
980
984
988
992
997
1,001
1,005
1 ,010
1,014
1 ,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,036
'1,040
'1,045
1,049
31
1,461
1,467
1,473
1,479
1,485
1,491
1,498
1,504
1 ,510
1,516
976
979
988
988
993
997
1,001
1,006
1,010
1,6'16
1,623
1,630
1,637
1,643
1,650
1,657
1,664
1,671
t,oro
1,685
1,605
1,612
I ,618
1,625
1,632
1,638
1,645
1,652
1,659
1,666
1,673
1,680
1,687
1,694
1,701
1,708
1 ,716
1,723
1,330
1,336
1,341
1,347
1,352
1,358
1,363
1,369
1,375
1,380
1,386
1,392
1,397
1,403
1,409
1,415
1,421
1,427
1,432
'1,438
1,444
1,450
1,456
959
956
961
965
969
o72
977
981
985
990
994
998
1,003
1,007
1,011
1 ,016
1,020
1,024
1,029
1,033
1,038
1,042
1,046
1,345
1,350
1,355
1,360
1,365
1,370
1,530
1,536
1,541
1,U7
1,553
1,559
1,565
1,571
1,577
1,583
1,589
1,595
1,601
1,607
1 ,613
1,620
1,626
1,632
1,638
1,645
1,651
1,6s7
1,663
1,706
1 ,713
1 ,719
,386
,391
,396
,401
,407
, 130
,133
,137
,141
,147
,152
,157
,162
,167
,172
,177
,182
,187
,192
,197
,202
,208ala
,218
,223
,229
,234
,239
31
12
30
11
,042
,046
,051
,055
,060
,064
,069
,074
,078
,083
JI
10
30
o
JI
8
,723
,729
, /JO
,743
,749
,756
,763
,770
,776
,783
,790
,797
,804
,811
,818
,825
,832
,839
1,375
1,380
726
733
739
746
753
759
//bb
773
780
787
794
801
808
815
ozz
829
836
843
850
857
Dec
263
zoo
273
279
285
290
296
301
307
313
318
324
330
335
341
347
353
359
364
J/U
376
coz
2aa
,523
,529
,535
,542
,548
,555
,561
,568
,574
,581
,587
,594
,600
,692
,699
AVG
1,410
1,415
1,420
1,426
1,431
707
714
721
728
735
743
750
757
765
772
730
737
745
752
759
1,412
1,417
'l a)?
1,428
1,433
1,439
1,444
1,450
1,455
1,46'l
994
994
998
999
1,O02
1,007
1,01 1
1 ,015
1,020
1,024
1,029
1,033
1,037
Monthly Average Load (aMW)
'1 ,165
I ,191
1,145
1,196
1,206
1,211
1,216
1,221
1,226
1,232
1,237
1,242
1,248
1,253
1,258
1,264
1,269
1,275
1,280
1,286
1,291
1,297
1,302
Year
000
002
008
012
0'18
022
027
031
036
040
044
049
053
058
063
067
072
076
081
086
090
095
100
30
4
,072
,102
,096
,096
,107
,112
,117
,122
,127
,131
, 136
,141
,146
,151
,156
,161
, 166
,171
,176
,181
, 186
,191
, 196
31zo
2
Jan
1,228
1,227
1,230
1,242
1,247
1,252
1,257
1,263
1,268
1,274
1,279
1,285
1,290
1,296
1,301
1,307
1 ,313
1 ,318
1,324
1,330
1,335
1,341
1,347
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
014
019
023
027
032
,036
041
045
050
054
059
063
068
072
JU
6
1,119
1,124
1129
1 ,133
1,138
1,143
1,073
1,078
1,079
1,086
1,091
1,096
1,101
'l ,1 05
1,110
1,115
1J20
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,139
1,144
1,149
1,154
'1,159
1,164
1,169
1,174
1,179
1,093
1,076
1,096
1,097
1,097
,043
,051
,051
,052
,058
,063
,067
,072
,077
,081
,086
,090
,095
,100
,105
,109
,114
101
106
111
116
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
16s
170
175
180
185
Days
Month
31
E 7
Case No. AVU-E-17-_ Attachment Page 1 of 10
1 ,610
1,616
| ,ozz
1,628
1,634
1,641
1,647
1,653
1,660
r,ooo
t,otz
1,679
1,685
1,692
1,698
1,705
1,711
1 ,718
1,724
1,731
1,738
1,744
1,751
1,706
1,713
1,719
1,726
1,733
1,739
1,746
1,753
1,759
t, /oo
1,773
1,780
1,787
1,794
1,801
1,808
1,815
1,822
1,829
1,836
1,843
1,850
1,857
Natural Gas Prices
Price per dth
DATE
1t1t2018
2t1t2018
3t1t2018
4t1t2018
5t1t2018
6t1t2018
7t1t2018
8t1t2018
9t1t2018
10t1t2018
11t1t2018
12t1t2018
111t2019
2t1t2019
3t1t2019
4t1t2019
5t1t2019
6t1t2019
7t1t2019
8t1t2019
9t1t2019
10t1t2019
1111t2019
12t112019
1t1t2020
2t1t2020
3t1t2020
4t1t2020
5t1t2020
6t1t2020
7t1t2020
8t1t2020
9t1t2020
10t1t2020
11t1t2020
12t1t2020
1t1t2021
2t1t2021
3t1t2021
4t1t2021
5t1t2021
6t1t2021
7t1t2021
8t1t2021
9t1t2021
Year
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7II
10
11
12
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8I
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
II
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
o
7
8I
Henry
Hub
3.30
3.30
3.26
2.95
2.91
2.94
2.96
2.97
2.95
2.97
3.02
3.15
3.24
3.21
3.15
2.76
2.72
2.75
2.77
2.78
2.76
2.79
2.85
3.01
3.11
3.09
3.03
2.71
2.68
2.71
2.73
2.74
2.74
2.77
2.84
2.99
3.20
3.19
3.10
2.77
2.75
2.77
2.79
2.81
2.82
AECO
2.43
2.36
2.31
1.96
1.91
1.92
1.94
1.93
1.93
1.97
2.10
2.18
2.26
2.26
2.17
1.74
1.70
1.77
1.82
1.83
1.78
1.83
1.97
2.16
2.28
2.26
2.12
1.74
1.71
1.73
1.75
1.77
1.73
1.78
1.92
2.12
2.34
2.31
2.20
1.81
1.80
1.82
1.85
1.85
1.78
Sumas
3.'19
3.00
2.83
2.30
2.26
2.23
2.28
2.26
2.30
2.34
2.66
2.91
2.99
2.90
2.55
1.95
1.91
1.95
2.13
2.12
2.12
2.16
2.47
3.04
3.12
2.94
2.48
1.93
1.88
1.88
2.02
2.04
2.04
2.12
2.37
2.81
2.97
2.81
2.53
1.97
1.97
1.97
2.12
2.12
2.10
Stanfield
3.14
3.09
2.90
2.50
2.43
2.42
2.50
2.50
2.48
2.51
2.78
2.98
3.05
3.02
2.85
2.35
2.28
2.30
2.32
2.29
2.30
2.35
2.65
2.84
2.92
2.88
2.64
2.36
2.28
2.29
2.32
2.29
2.30
2.30
2.60
2.80
2.99
2.96
2.69
2.42
2.34
2.34
2.38
2.38
2.40
Malin
3.17
3.12
2.99
2.60
2.55
2.57
2.63
2.62
2.61
2.67
2.81
3.00
3.09
3.05
2.88
2.46
2.39
2.40
2.48
2.47
2.45
2.49
2.68
2.87
2.95
2.92
2.73
2.45
2.38
2.39
2.48
2.46
2.45
2.46
2.64
2.83
3.02
3.00
2.76
2.49
2.43
2.45
2.55
2.57
2.57
Case No. AVU-E-17-_ Attachment Page 2 of 10
101112021
11t1t2021
12t1t2021
1t1t2022
2t1t2022
311t2022
411t2022
5t1t2022
611t2022
711t2022
811t2022
9t1t2022
10t1t2022
11t1t2022
12t1t2022
1t1t2023
2t1t2023
3t1t2023
4t1t2023
5t1t2023
6t1t2023
7t1t2023
8t1t2023
9t1t2023
10t1t2023
11t1t2023
12t1t2023
1t1t2024
2t1t2024
3t1t2024
4t1t2024
5t1t2024
6t1t2024
711t2024
81112024
911t2024
10t1t2024
11t1t2024
12t1t2024
1t1t2025
2t1t2025
3t1t2025
4t1t2025
5t1t2025
6t1t2025
7t1t2025
81112025
9t1t2025
10t1t2025
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025
2025
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
o
7
I
I
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
I
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7II
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8I
10
2.85
2.97
3.11
3.31
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Case No. AVU-E-17-_ Attachment Page 3 of '10
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6.03
6.04
6.40
6.49
6.21
6.26
6.65
7.10
7.18
7.15
6.68
6.20
6.16
6.20
6.47
6.53
6.22
6.29
6.63
7.17
7.26
7.23
6.85
6.49
6.41
6.43
6.70
6.73
6.38
6.40
6.76
7.23
6.84
6.53
6.23
6.17
6.21
6.64
6.73
6.44
6.50
6.77
7.19
7.23
7.24
6.81
6.37
6.30
6.34
6.71
6.77
6.46
6.53
6.74
7.26
7.31
7.30
6.95
6.64
6.55
6.61
6.95
6.97
6.62
6.64
6,91
7.28
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
$3.06
$2.90
$2.84
$2.93
$3.09
$3.41
$4.00
$4.13
$4.14
$4.27
$4.46
$4.75
$2.08
$1.94
$1.91
$1.98
$2.12
$2.44
$3.09
$3.23
$3.27
$3.46
$3.67
$4.01
$2.55
$2.36
$2.30
$2.35
$2.52
$2.81
$3.45
$3.59
$3.64
$3.83
$4.04
$4.42
$2.68
$2.55
$2.50
$2.58
$2.75
$3.07
$3.67
$3.82
$3.81
$3.94
$4.11
$4.39
$2.78
$2.64
$2.60
$2.68
$2.8s
$3.16
$3.75
$3.90
$3.90
$4.03
$4.20
$4.49
Case No. AVU-E-I7- Attachment Page 7 of 10
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
$5.04
$5.27
$5.42
$5.67
$5.95
$6.1 5
$6.53
$6.71
$7.02
$7.18
$7.38
$4.28
$4.51
$4.62
$4.87
$5.08
$5.24
$5.56
$5.74
$6.02
$6.17
$6.35
$4.72
$4.97
$5.07
$5.32
$5.51
$5.66
$5.99
$6.1 7
$6.43
$6.58
$6.76
$4.66
$4.90
$5.06
$5.28
$s.51
$5.68
$6.02
$6.18
$6.44
$6.57
$6.74
$4.78
$5.01
$5.18
$5.41
$5.63
$5.81
$6.16
$6.32
$6.59
$6.73
$6.89
Case No. AVU-E-17-_ Attachment Page I of 10
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