20170831Avista IRP Appendices.pdf

Table of Contents
Appendix A - 2017 IRP Technical Advisory Committee Presentations (Page 1)
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting 1 (Page 2)
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting 2 (Page 66)
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting 3 (Page 169)
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting 4 (Page 219)
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting 5 (Page 337)
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting 6 (Page 460)
Appendix B - 2017 Electric IRP Work Plan (Page 541)
Appendix C - AEG Conservation Potential Assessment (Page 548)
Appendix D - Conservation Potential Assessment Measure Assumptions (Page
688)
Appendix E - New Resource Table for Transmission (Page 764)
Appendix F - Summary of Major Changes to the 2017 IRP from the 2015 IRP (Page
766)
Appendix G - Summary of Supply-Side Resource Costs (Page 769)
2017 Electric Integrated
Resource Plan
Appendix A- 2017 Technical
Advisory Committee
Presentations
.J.�fillSTA"
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
2
2017 Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 1 Agenda
Thursday, June 2, 2016
Conference Room 130
Topic Time Staff
Introductions 8:30
TAC Meeting Expectations 8:35 Lyons
2015 IRP Commission Acknowledgements 9:00 Kalich
Break
Energy Independence Act Compliance 10:00 Lyons
Energy Efficiency Modeling Discussion 11 :00 Dillon/Gall
Lunch 12:00
Resource Adequacy - Preliminary Results 1 :00 Gall
Draft 2017 Electric IRP Work Plan 2:00 Lyons
Adjourn 3:00
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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2017 Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 2 Agenda
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Conference Room 130
Topic Time Staff
Introduction and TAC 1 Recap 8:30 Lyons
TAC 1 Action Item Update 8:40 Gall
• Conservation Selection Methodology
• Demand Response
• Planning Margin
Electrification Update 9:15 Farley
Break 9:45
Load and Economic Forecasts 10:00 Forsyth
Lunch 11 :30
Supply Side Options 12:30 Lyons
Break 1 :15
Clean Energy Fund 2 Grant Project 1 :30 Gibson
Adjourn 2:30
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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169
2017 Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 3 Agenda
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Red Lion River Inn Shoreline A Conference Room
Topic Time Staff
Introduction and TAC 2 Recap 9:00 Lyons
Colstrip Discussion 9:10 Lyons
Break 10:45
Clean Power Plan & Clean Air Rule 11 :00 Lyons
Lunch 12:00
I RP Modeling Overview 1 :00 Gall
Break 2:00
Cost of Carbon 2:10 Gall
Break 2:40
Avista's Power Planner Simulator 2:50 Kalich
Adjourn 3:30
TAC meeting location: Red Lion River Inn Spokane
Shoreline Ballroom A
700 N. Division
Spokane, \NA 99202
Directions: http ://www. red I ion. com/river-in n-spokane/map-d i rections
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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2017 Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 4 Agenda
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Conference Room 130
Topic Time Staff
Introduction and TAC 3 Recap 9:00 Lyons
Resource Needs Assessment 9:15 Gall
Natural Gas Price Forecast 9:45 Pardee
Break 10:45
Electric Price Forecast 11 :00 Gall
Lunch 12:00
Transmission Planning 1:00 Maguire
Break 2:00
Market and Portfolio Scenario Development 2:15 Lyons
Adjourn 3:00
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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2017 Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 5 Agenda
Tuesday, March 28, 2017
Conference Room 130
Topic Time Staff
Introduction and TAC 4 Recap 9:00 Lyons
Updated Electric Price Forecast 9:10 Gall
Energy Storage and Ancillary Services 9:30 Gall
Break 10:15
Conservation Potential Assessment 10:30 Gifford
Lunch 12:00
Distribution Planning 1:00 Stone
Break 2:00
Draft Preferred Resource Strategy 2:10 Gall
Adjourn 3:30
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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2017 Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 6 Agenda
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Conference Room 130
Topic Time Staff
Introduction and TAC 5 Recap 9:00 Lyons
Conservation Assessment 9:10 Finesilver
Final 2017 Preferred Resource Strategy 9:40 Gall
Break 10:15
Scenario Analysis 10:30 Gall
Lunch 12:00
C&I Solar Select Program 1:00 Schaffner
2019 IRP Action Items 1:30 Lyons
Break 2:00
2017 IRP Document Overview 2:15 Lyons
Adjourn 3:00
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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541
2017 Electric Integrated
Resource Plan
Appendix B - 2017 Electric IRP
Work Plan
.J.�fillSTA"
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
542
Work Plan for Avista's
2017 Electric Integrated Resource Plan
For the
Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission
August 30, 2016
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
543
2017 Electric Integrated Resource Planning Work Plan
This Work Plan is submitted in compliance with the Washington Utilities and Transportation
Commission's Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) rules (WAC 480-100-238). It outlines the
process Avista will follow to develop its 2017 IRP for filing with Washington and Idaho
Commissions by August 31, 2017. A vista uses a public process to solicit technical expertise and
feedback throughout the development of the IRP through a series of public Technical Advisory
Committee (TAC) meetings. Avista held the first TAC meeting for the 2017 IRP on June 2, 2016.
The 2017 IRP process will be similar to those used to produce the previous IRPs. Avista will use
AURORAxmp for electric market price forecasting, resource valuation and for conducting Monte­
Carlo style risk analyses. AURORA xmp modeling results will be used to select the Preferred
Resource Strategy (PRS) using A vista's proprietary PRiSM model. This tool fills future capacity
and energy (physical/renewable) deficits using an efficient frontier approach to evaluate
quantitative portfolio risk versus portfolio cost while accounting for environmental laws and
regulations. Qualitative risk evaluations involve separate analyses. Exhibit 1 shows the IRP
timeline and the process to identify the PRS is in Exhibit 2.
A vista intends to use both detailed site-specific and generic resource assumptions in development
of the 2017 IRP. The assumptions combine A vista's research of similar generating technologies,
engineering studies, and the Northwest Power and Conservation Council's Seventh Power Plan.
This IRP will study renewable portfolio standards, environmental costs, sustained peaking
requirements and resource adequacy, energy efficiency programs, energy storage and demand
response. The IRP will develop a strategy that meets or exceeds both the renewable portfolio
standards and greenhouse gas emissions regulations.
A vista intends to test the PRS against a range of scenarios and potential futures. The TAC meetings
will help to determine the underlying assumptions used in the scenarios and futures. The IRP
process is very technical and data intensive; public comments are welcome but timely input and
participation will be necessary for inclusion into the process so the plan can be submitted according
to the tentative schedule in this Work Plan.
The following topics and meeting times may change depending on the availability of presenters
and requests for additional topics from the TAC members. The tentative timeline and agenda
items for TAC meetings follows:
• TAC 1: Thursday, June 2, 2016: TAC meeting Expectations, review of2015 IRP
acknowledgement letters, Energy Independence Act compliance, energy efficiency
modeling discussion, resource adequacy - preliminary results and review the 2017 IRP draft
Work Plan.
• TAC 2: Wednesday, September 28, 2016: Review conservation selection methodology,
update on the Company's demand response study, load and economic forecasts, planning
margin and generation options.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
544
• TAC 3: Tuesday, November 8, 2016: Colstrip discussion, cost of carbon, modeling
overview, Power Plan Simulator, and Clean Power Plan & Clean Air Rule discussion.
• TAC 4: Wednesday, February 15, 2017: Electric and natural gas price forecasts,
transmission planning, resource needs assessment, market and portfolio scenario
development,
• TAC 5: Tuesday, March 28, 2017: Energy storage and ancillary service evaluation,
completed conservation potential assessment, draft PRS, review of scenarios and futures and
portfolio analysis
• TAC 6: Tuesday, June 20, 2017: Review of final PRS and action items.
2017 Electric /RP Draft Outline
This section provides a draft outline of the major sections in the 2017 Electric IRP. This outline
may change as IRP studies are completed and input from the TAC has been received.
1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction and Stakeholder Involvement
3. Economic and Load Forecast
a. Economic Conditions
b. A vista Energy & Peak Load Forecasts
c. Load Forecast Scenarios
4. Existing Supply Resources
a. A vista Resources
b. Contractual Resources and Obligations
5. Energy Efficiency and Demand Response
a. Conservation Potential Assessment
b. Demand Response Opportunities
6. Long-Term Position
a. Reliability Planning and Reserve Margins
b. Resource Requirements
c. Reserves and Flexibility Assessment
7. Policy Considerations
a. Environmental Concerns
b. State and Federal Policies
8. Transmission & Distribution Planning
a. A vista's Transmission System
b. Future Upgrades and Interconnections
c. Transmission Construction Costs and Integration
d. Efficiency System Planning
e. Non-power supply storage benefits
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
545
9. Generation Resource Options
a. New Resource Options
b. A vista Plant Upgrades
10. Market Analysis
a. Marketplace
b. Fuel Price Forecasts
c. Market Price Forecast
d. Scenario Analysis
11. Preferred Resource Strategy
a. Resource Selection Process
b. Preferred Resource Strategy
c. Efficient Frontier Analysis
d. A voided Cost
12. Portfolio Scenarios
a. Portfolio Scenarios
b. Tipping Point Analysis
13. Action Plan
a. 2015 Action Plan Summary
b. 2017 Action Plan
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
546
Exhibit 1: 2017 Electric IRP Timeline
Task
Preferred Resource Strategy (PRS)
Finalize energy demand forecast
Identify A vista's supply & conservation resource options
Finalize peak load forecast
Update AURORAxmp database for market price forecast
Energy efficiency load shapes input into AURORA xmp
Finalize datasets/statistics variables for risk studies
Transmission study due
Finalize distribution feeder forecast
Select natural gas price forecast
Finalize deterministic base case
Due date for study requests
Base case stochastic study complete
Develop efficient frontier and PRS
Finalize PRiSM model
Simulation of risk studies "futures" complete
Simulate market scenarios in AURORAxmp
Evaluate resource strategies against market futures and
scenanos
Present preliminary study and PRS to TAC
Writing Tasks
File 2017 IRP Work Plan
Prepare report and appendix outline
Prepare text drafts
Prepare charts and tables
Internal draft released at A vista
External draft released to the TAC
Final editing and printing
Final IRP submission to Commissions and TAC
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Target Date
July 2016
September 2016
September 2016
October 2016
October 2016
November 2016
December 2016
December 2016
December 2016
January 2017
January 13, 2017
January 2017
January 2017
February 2017
February 2017
February 2017
March 2017
March 2017
August 31, 2016
October 2016
April 2017
April 2017
May 2017
June 2017
August 2017
August 31, 2017
547
Exhibit 2: 2017 Electric IRP Modeling Process
2017 RP Moder g Process
s
El'ds I Prt•I
E:x.llJII R rt s
�Oriu•s
Tr-
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Cti!II Ei'f<:I�" T&D Pnir.m•C:i;,
C:i rrs "'1'• en �l!SLl'(!�'Ct>sl5
ti"� R�sru•t>! :4,:;rrs g C1>sl&
548
2017 Electric Integrated
Resource Plan
Appendix C - AEG Conservation
Potential Assessment for the
2017 IRP
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
/'"AEG - ',, .� .. Applied Energy Group ,,.,.
A VISTA ELECTRIC CONSERVATION
POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT FOR
2018-2037
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
ANALYSIS
Prepared for:
Avista Utilities
June 2017
Applied Energy Group, Inc.
500 Ygnacio Valley Road, Suite 250
Walnut Creek, CA 94596
510.982.3525
AppliedEnergyGroup.com
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
550
This work was performed by
Applied Energy Group, Inc.
500 Ygnacio Valley Blvd., Suite 250
Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Project Director: I. Rohmund
Project Manager: B. Kester
Project Team: K. Kolnowski
F. Nguyen
S. Yoshida
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
551
CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION ••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.••.•.............•. 1-1
Abbreviations and Acronyms 1-2
2 ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2-3
Overview of Analysis Approach 2-3
Load MAP Model 2-3
Definitions of Potential 2-5
Market Characterization 2-5
Baseline Projection 2-6
Conservation Measure Analysis 2-7
Representative Conservation Measure Data Inputs 2-9
Conservation Potential 2-10
Data Development 2-11
Data Sources 2-11
AEG Data 2-12
Other Secondary Data and Reports 2-13
Data Application 2-13
Data Application for Market Profiles 2-14
Conservation Measure Data Application 2-20
Data Application for Achievable Technical Potential 2-21
3 MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES .....•..•.•••.••••••..•••.••••••••••••••••••••••••.••• 3-22
Energy Use Summary 3-22
Residential Sector 3-2 3
Commercial Sector 3-30
Industrial Sector 3-36
4 BASELINE PROJECTION .••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••••••.•..•.•........•...•.•• 4-1
Residential Sector 4-1
Annual Use 4-1
Commercial Sector Baseline Projections 4-4
Annual Use 4-4
Industrial Sector Baseline Projections 4-6
Annual Use 4-6
Summary of Baseline Projections across Sectors and States 4-8
Annual Use 4-8
5 CONSERVATION POTENTIAL .....•..•.•.........•.••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••..••.•••.......•••••.•••••••••••••••••••• 5-1
Overall Summary of Energy Efficiency Potential 5-1
Summary of Annual Energy Savings 5-1
Summary of Conservation Potential by Sector 5-5
Residential Conservation Potential 5-5
Commercial Conservation Potential 5-12
Industrial Conservation Potential 5-16
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
552
6 DEMAND RESPONSE POTENTIAL ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•.•••....••••••••••... 6-1
Market Characterization 6-1
Market segmentation 6-1
Customer Count by Segment 6-2
Forecasts of Winter Peak 6-3
Equipment End Use Saturation 6-3
DR Program Descriptions 6-4
Relevant DR Programs 6-4
Direct Load Control Program 6-5
Firm Curtailment Program 6-9
Critical Peak Pricing 6-12
Other Cross-cutting Assumptions 6-17
DR Potential and Cost Estimates 6-17
Potential Results 6-17
Cost Results 6-19
Integrated Results 6-21
A MARKET PROFILES ••..•.••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••...•..........•...••••••.•••••••••••• A-1
8 MARKET ADOPTION (RAMP) RATES ........•..•.••......•..•.•....•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8-1
C EQUIPMENT MEASURE DATA ••.••••••••••••••.•...•..•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•.•••••.•.•...•... C-1
D NON-EQUIPMENT MEASURE DATA ....••...•..•.•.••..•••••••••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••••.•••• D-1
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
553
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1
Figure 2-2
Figure 3-1
Figure 3-2
Figure 3-3
Figure 3-4
Figure 3-5
Figure 3-6
Figure 3-7
Figure 3-8
Figure 3-9
Figure 3-10
Figure 3-11
Figure 3-12
Figure 4-1
Figure 4-2
Figure 4-3
Figure 4-4
Figure 4-5
Figure 4-6
Figure 4-7
Figure 4-8
Figure 4-9
Figure 5-1
Figure 5-2
Figure 5-3
Figure 5-4
Figure 5-5
Figure 5-6
Figure 5-7
Figure 5-8
Figure 5-9
Figure 5-10
Figure 5-11
Figure 5-12
Figure 5-13
Figure 5-14
Load MAP Analysis Framework 2-4
Approach for Conservation Measure Assessment 2-8
Sector-Level Electricity Use in Base Year 2015, Washington 3-22
Sector-Level Electricity Use in Base Year 2015, Idaho 3-23
Residential Electricity Use and Winter Peak Demand by End Use (2015), Washington 3-25
Residential Electricity Use and Winter Peak Demand by End Use (2015), Idaho 3-26
Residential Intensity by End Use and Segment (Annual kWh/HH, 2015), Washington 3-27
Residential Intensity by End Use and Segment (Annual kWh/HH, 2015), Idaho 3-27
Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption by End Use (2015), Washington 3-31
Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption by End Use (2015), Idaho 3-32
Commercial Electricity Usage by End Use Segment (GWh, 2015), Washington 3-33
Commercial Electricity Usage by End Use Segment (GWh, 2015), Idaho 3-33
Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (2015), All Industries, WA 3-37
Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (2015), All Industries, ID 3-38
Residential Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington 4-2
Residential Baseline Projection by End Use - Annual Use per Household, Washington .4-2
Residential Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho 4-3
Residential Baseline Sales Projection by End Use - Annual Use per Household, Idaho 4-3
Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington 4-5
Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho 4-5
Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington 4-7
Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho 4-7
Baseline Projection Summary (GWh), WA and ID Combined 4-8
Summary of EE Potential as % of Baseline Projection (Annual Energy), Washington 5-3
Summary of EE Potential as% of Baseline Projection (Annual Energy), Idaho 5-3
Baseline Projection and EE Forecast Summary (Annual Energy, GWh), Washington 5-4
Baseline Projection and EE Forecast Summary (Annual Energy, GWh), Idaho 5-4
Achievable Technical Conservation Potential by Sector (Annual Energy, GWh) 5-5
Residential Conservation Savings as a % of the Baseline Projection (Annual Energy),
Washington 5- 7
Residential Conservation Savings as a % of the Baseline Projection (Annual Energy),
Idaho 5- 7
Residential Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Washington 5-9
Residential Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Idaho 5-11
Commercial Conservation Savings (Energy), Washington 5-13
Commercial Conservation Savings (Energy), Idaho 5-13
Commercial Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Washington 5-14
Commercial Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Idaho 5-15
Industrial Conservation Potential as a % of the Baseline Projection (Annual Energy),
Washington 5-17
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 5-15
Figure 5-16
Figure 5-17
Figure 6-1
554
Industrial Conservation Potential as a % of the Baseline Projection (Annual Energy),
Idaho 5-17
Industrial Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Washington 5-18
Industrial Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Annual Energy, GWh), Idaho 5-19
Summary of Potential Analysis for Avista (MW @Generator) 6-18
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
555
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1-1
Table 2-1
Table 2-2
Table 2-3
Table 2-4
Table 2-5
Table 2-6
Table 2-7
Table 2-8
Table 2-9
Table 3-1
Table 3-2
Table 3-3
Table 3-4
Table 3-5
Table 3-6
Table 3-7
Table 3-8
Table 3-9
Table 3-10
Table 3-11
Table 3-12
Table 3-13
Table 4-1
Table 4-2
Table 4-3
Table 4-4
Table 4-5
Table 4-6
Table 4-7
Table 5-1
Table 5-2
Table 5-3
Table 5-4
Table 5-5
Table 5-6
Table 5-7
Table 5-8
Table 5-9
Explanation of Abbreviations and Acronyms 1-2
Overview of Avista Analysis Segmentation Scheme 2-6
Example Equipment Measures for Central AC - Single-Family Home 2-9
Example Non-Equipment Measures - Single Family Home, Existing 2-10
Number of Measures Evaluated 2-10
Data Applied for the Market Profiles 2-15
Residential Electric Equipment Standards 2-17
Commercial Electric Equipment Standards 2-18
Industrial Electric Equipment Standards 2-19
Data Needs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP 2-20
Avista Sector Control Totals (2015), Washington 3-22
Avista Sector Control Totals (2015), Idaho 3-23
Residential Sector Control Totals (2015), Washington 3-24
Residential Sector Control Totals (2015), Idaho 3-24
Average Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2015, Washington 3-28
Average Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2015, Idaho 3-29
Commercial Sector Control Totals (2015), Washington 3-30
Commercial Sector Control Totals (2015), Idaho 3-30
Average Electric Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, 2015, Washington 3-34
Average Electric Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, 2015, Idaho 3-35
Industrial Sector Control Totals (2015) 3-36
Average Electric Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, 2015, Washington 3-39
Average Electric Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, 2015, Idaho 3-40
Residential Baseline Sales Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington 4-2
Residential Baseline Sales Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho 4-3
Commercial Baseline Sales Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington 4-4
Commercial Baseline Sales Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho 4-4
Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington 4-6
Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho .4-6
Baseline Projection Summary (GWh), WA and ID Combined 4-8
Summary of EE Potential (Annual Energy, GWh), Washington 5-2
Summary of EE Potential (Annual Energy, GWh), ldaho 5-2
Achievable Technical Conservation Potential by Sector (Annual Use), WA and ID 5-5
Residential Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), Washington 5-6
Residential Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), Idaho 5-6
Residential Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, MWh), Washington 5-8
Residential Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, MWh), Idaho 5-10
Commercial Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), WA 5-12
Commercial Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), Idaho 5-12
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 5-10
Table 5-11
Table 5-12
Table 5-13
Table 5-14
Table 5-15
Table 6-1
Table 6-2
Table 6-3
Table 6-4
Table 6-5
Table 6-6
Table 6-7
Table 6-8
Table 6-9
Table 6-10
Table 6-11
Table 6-12
Table 6-13
Table 6-14
Table 6-15
Table 6-16
Table 6-17
Table 6-18
Table6-19
Table 6-20
Table 6-21
Table 6-22
Table 6-23
Table 6-24
Table 6-25
Table 6-26
Table 6-27
Table 6-28
Table 6-29
Table 6-30
Table 6-31
Table 6-32
556
Commercial Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, MWh), Washington 5-14
Commercial Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, MWh), Idaho 5-15
Industrial Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), WA 5-16
Industrial Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), Idaho 5-16
Industrial Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, GWh), Washington 5-18
Industrial Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, GWh), Idaho 5-19
Market Segmentation 6-2
.Baseline C&I Customer Forecast by State and Customer Class 6-2
Baseline System Winter Peak Forecast (MW @Generator) 6-3
Load Factors and Baseline Coincident Peak Forecast by Segment (MW @Meter) 6-3
Electric Space Heating and Water Heating Saturation by Customer Class, Washington 6-4
Electric Space Heating and Water Heating Saturation by Customer Class, Idaho 6-4
Relevant DR Programs for Avista 6-5
Direct Load Control Program Features 6-6
DLC Participation Rates(% of eligible customers) 6-7
Per Participant Impact Assumptions for Direct Load Control Program 6-7
DLC Program Cost Assumptions 6-8
DLC Program Lifetime and Capacity Derating Factor 6-9
Firm Curtailment Program Features 6-10
Firm Curtailment Program Participation Rates(% of eligible customers) 6-11
Per Participant Load Reduction Assumption for Firm Curtailment Program 6-11
Firm Curtailment Program Cost Assumptions 6-12
Firm Curtailment Program Lifetime and Capacity Derating Factor 6-12
Critical Peak Pricing Program Features 6-13
Critical Peak Pricing Program Participation Rates(% of eligible customers) 6-14
Percentage of CPP Participants with Enabling Technology(% of total participants) 6-14
Per Participant Load Reduction in CPP Rates by Customer Class 6-15
CPP Program Cost Assumptions for Opt-in and Opt-out Offers 6-16
Program Lifetime and Capacity Derating Factor for Pricing Options 6-16
Achievable DR Potential by Option for Avista (MW @Generator) 6-18
Achievable DR Potential by Option for Washington (MW @Generator) 6-19
Achievable DR Potential by Option for Idaho (MW @Generator) 6-19
DR Program Costs and Potential 6-20
DR Program Costs and Potential, Washington 6-20
DR Program Costs and Potential, Idaho 6-21
DR Program Costs and Potential - Interactive 6-21
DR Program Costs and Potential - Interactive, Washington 6-22
DR Program Costs and Potential - Interactive, Idaho 6-22
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
557
1
INTRODUCTION
Avista Corporation (Avista) engaged Applied Energy Group (AEG) to conduct a Conservation Potential
Assessment (CPA). The CPA is a 20-year study, performed in accordance with Washington Initiative
937 (1-937), that provides data on conservation resources to support development of Avista's 2017
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). AEG first performed an electricity CPA for Avista in 2013. We have also
performed gas CPA studies in 2014 and 2016 and an assessment of demand-response potential in
2014. This study updates Avista's last electricity CPA, which AEG performed in 2015.
Since 2015, additional information became available and there was also a desire for more granularity,
corresponding to increasing sophistication in CPA studies. Therefore, this study provided enhanced
analysis compared to the previous studies.
• The base-year for the analysis was brought forward from 2013 to 2015.
• For the residential sector, the study incorporated Avista's GenPOP residential saturation survey
from 2012. This provided the foundation for the base-year market characterization and energy
market profiles. The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance's (NEEA's) 2014 Residential Building
Stock Assessment (RBSA) supplemented the Gen POP survey.
• For the commercial sector, analysis was performed for the major building types in the service
territory. Results from the 2015 Commercial Building Stock Assessment (CBSA), including
hospital and university data, provided useful information for this characterization.
• Measure data have been updated based on the recently finalized Seventh Power Plan (Seventh
Plan) completed by the Northwest Power and Conservation Council (Council).
• This study also incorporated changes to the list of energy conservation measures, as a result of
research by the Regional Technical Forum (RTF). In particular, LED lamps continue to drop in
price and provide a significant opportunity for savings.
• The study incorporates updated forecasting assumptions that line up with the most recent Avista
load forecast.
• Measure-adoption rates were developed using the Seventh Plan's ramp rates as a starting point
and adjusted to reflect Avista program results in recent years. Prior CPAs utilized Sixth Power
Plan ramp rates instead.
• Analysis of economic potential was excluded from this study. Avista will screen for cost effective
opportunities directly within the IRP model. As such, economic potential and achievable
potential have been replaced by an achievable technical potential case.
• In addition to analyzing annual energy savings, the study also estimated the opportunity for
reduction of summer peak demand. This involved a full characterization by sector, segment and
end use of summer peak demand in the base year.
• Finally, this year's study included an update to the 2014 assessment of demand-response
potential within the commercial and industrial (C&I) sectors in Washington and Idaho.
Since achievable potential has been removed from this CPA, it is not possible to compare achievable
potential results with prior CPAs. Therefore when making comparisons to the previous study we will
focus on technical potential. Compared to the 2015 Study, 10-year technical potential has increased
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to 187.9 aMW from 180.5 aMW. This is due to the addition of new measures in the Seventh Plan and
increased baseline consumption growth.
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
Table 1-1 provides a list of abbreviations and acronyms used in this report, along with an explanation.
Table 1-1
Acronym
ACS
AEO
AHAM
AMI
AMR
Auto-DR
B/C Ratio
BEST
C&I
CAC
CFL
CPP
C&I
DHW
DLC
DR
DSM
EE
EIA
EUL
EUI
FERC
HH
HID
HVAC
ICAP
IOU
LED
Load MAP
LCOE
MW
NPV
O&M
PCT
RTU
TRC
UEC
Explanation of Abbreviations and Acronyms
Explanation
American Community Survey
Annual Energy Outlook forecast developed by EIA
Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers
Advanced Metering Infrastructure
Automated Meter Reading
Automated Demand Response
Benefit to Cost Ratio
AEG's Building Energy Simulation Tool
Commercial and Industrial
Central Air Conditioning
Compact fluorescent lamp
Critical Peak Pricing
Commercial and Industrial
Domestic Hot Water
Direct Load Control
Demand Response
Demand Side Management
Energy Efficiency
Energy Information Administration
Estimated Useful Life
Energy Usage Intensity
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Household
High intensity discharge lamps
Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning
Installed Capacity
Investor Owned Utility
Light emitting diode lamp
AEG's Load Management Analysis and Planning™ tool
Levelized cost of energy
Megawatt
Net Present Value
Operations and Maintenance
Programmable Communicating Thermostat
Roof top unit
Total Resource Cost test
Unit Energy Consumption
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2
ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT
This section describes the analysis approach taken for the study and the data sources used to develop
the potential estimates.
OVERVIEW OF ANALYSIS APPROACH
To perform the potential analysis, AEG used a bottom-up approach following the major steps listed
below. We describe these analysis steps in more detail throughout the remainder of this chapter.
1. Perform a market characterization to describe sector-level electricity use for the residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors for the base year, 2015.
2. Develop a baseline projection of energy consumption and peak demand by sector, segment, and
end use for 2015 through 2037.
3. Define and characterize several hundred conservation measures to be applied to all sectors,
segments, and end uses.
4. Estimate technical and achievable technical potential at the measure level in terms of energy and
peak demand impacts from conservation measures for 2018-2037.
LOADMAP MODEL
AEG used its Load Management Analysis and Planning tool (Load MAP™) version 5.0 to develop both
the baseline projection and the estimates of potential. AEG developed LoadMAP in 2007 and has
enhanced it over time, using it for the EPRI National Potential Study and numerous utility-specific
forecasting and potential studies since that time. Built in Excel, the LoadMAP framework (see Figure
2-1) is both accessible and transparent and has the following key features.
• Embodies the basic principles of rigorous end-use models (such as EPRI's REEPS and
COMMEND) but in a more simplified, accessible form.
• Includes stock-accounting algorithms that treat older, less efficient appliance/equipment stock
separately from newer, more efficient equipment. Equipment is replaced according to the
measure life and appliance vintage distributions defined by the user.
• Balances the competing needs of simplicity and robustness by incorporating important modeling
details related to equipment saturations, efficiencies, vintage, and the like, where market data
are available, and treats end uses separately to account for varying importance and availability of
data resources.
• Isolates new construction from existing equipment and buildings and treats purchase decisions
for new construction and existing buildings separately.
• Uses a simple logic for appliance and equipment decisions. Other models available for this
purpose embody complex decision choice algorithms or diffusion assumptions, and the model
parameters tend to be difficult to estimate or observe and sometimes produce anomalous results
that require calibration or even overriding. The LoadMAP approach allows the user to drive the
appliance and equipment choices year by year directly in the model. This flexible approach
allows users to import the results from diffusion models or to input individual assumptions. The
framework also facilitates sensitivity analysis.
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• Includes appliance and equipment models customized by end use. For example, the logic for
lighting is distinct from refrigerators and freezers.
• Can accommodate various levels of segmentation. Analysis can be performed at the sector level
(e.g., total residential) or for customized segments within sectors (e.g., housing type or income
level).
• Incorporates conservation measures, demand-response options, combined heat and power
(CHP) and distributed generation options and fuel switching.
Consistent with the segmentation scheme and the market profiles we describe below, the LoadMAP
model provides projections of baseline energy use by sector, segment, end use, and technology for
existing and new buildings. It also provides forecasts of total energy use and energy-efficiency savings
associated with the various types of potentiaJ.1
Figure 2-1 LoadMAP Analysis Framework
Savings estimates
(Annual and peak)
Technical potential
Achievable Technical
potential
IRP Inputs
Cumulative savings
Incremental savings
Utility costs
Levelized cost of energy
($/MWh)
Energy efficiency forecasts:
Technical
Achievable Technical
List of measures
Saturations and
applicabilities
Adoption rates
Lifetime
Measure costs
Energy and peak
savings
Economic Data
Customer growth
Energy prices
Exogenous Factors
Elasticities
Technology Data
Efficiency options
Codes and standards
Purchase shares Base-year Energy
Consumption
by technology, end
use, segment, vintage,
and sector
Market size
Equipment Saturation
Fuel shares
Technology shares
Vintage distribution
Unit energy consumption
Summer coincident demand
Winter coincident demand
1 The model computes energy and peak-demand forecasts for each type of potential for each end use as an intermediate calculation.
Annual-energy and peak-demand savings are calculated as the difference between the value in the baseline projection and the value
in the potential forecast (e.g., the technical potential forecast).
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DEFINITIONS OF POTENTIAL
In this study, the conservation potential estimates represent gross savings developed for two levels of
potential: technical potential and achievable technical potential. These levels are described below.
• Technical Potential is defined as the theoretical upper limit of conservation potential. It assumes
that customers adopt all feasible measures regardless of their cost. At the time of existing
equipment failure, customers replace their equipment with the most efficient option available. In
new construction, customers and developers also choose the most efficient equipment option.
In new construction, customers and developers also choose the most efficient equipment option
relative to applicable codes and standards. Non-equipment measures which may be realistically
installed apart from equipment replacements are implemented according to ramp rates
developed by the NWPCC for its Seventh Power Plan, applied to 100% of the applicable market.
This case is a theoretical construct, and is provided primarily for planning and informational
purposes.
• Achievable Technical Potential refines technical potential by applying customer participation
rates that account for market barriers, customer awareness and attitudes, program maturity, and
other factors that may affect market penetration of DSM measures. We used achievability
assumptions from the Council's Seventh Plan, adjusted for Avista's recent program
accomplishments, as the customer adoption rates for this study. For the achievable technical case,
ramp rates are applied to at most 85% of the applicable market, per Council methodology. This
achievability factor represents potential which can reasonably be acquired by all mechanisms
available, regardless of how conservation is achieved. Thus, the market applicability assumptions
utilized in this study include savings outside of utility programs. 2
Details regarding the market adoption factors appear in Appendix B.
MARKET CHARACTERIZATION
The first step in the analysis approach is market characterization. In order to estimate the savings
potential from energy-efficient measures, it is necessary to understand how much energy is used today
and what equipment is currently being used. This characterization begins with a segmentation of
Avista's electricity footprint to quantify energy use by sector, segment, end-use application, and the
current set of technologies used. We rely primarily on information from Avista, NEEA, and secondary
sources as necessary.
Segmentation for Modeling Purposes
The market assessment first defined the market segments (building types, end uses, and other
dimensions) that are relevant in the Avista service territory. The segmentation scheme for this project
is presented in Table 2-1.
2 Council's 7,h Power Plan applicability assumptions reference an "Achievable Savings" report published August 1, 2007.
http: //www.nwcouncil.or�/reports/2007 /2007-13 I
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562
Overview of Avista Analysis Segmentation Scheme
Dimension
1
2
3
4
5
6
Segmentation Variable
Sector
Segment
Vintage
End uses
Appliances/end uses and
technologies
Equipment efficiency levels
for new purchases
Description
Residential, commercial, industrial
Residential: single family, multifamily, manufactured home, low
income
Commercial: small office, large office, restaurant, retail, grocery,
college, school, health, lodging, warehouse, and miscellaneous
Industrial: total
Existing and new construction
Cooling, lighting, water heat, motors, etc. (as appropriate by
sector)
Technologies such as lamp type, air conditioning equipment,
motors by application, etc.
Baseline and higher-efficiency options as appropriate for each
technology
With the segmentation scheme defined, we then performed a high-level market characterization of
electricity sales in the base year to allocate sales to each customer segment. We used Avista data and
secondary sources to allocate energy use and customers to the various sectors and segments such that
the total customer count, energy consumption, and peak demand matched the Avista system totals
from 2015 billing data. This information provided control totals at a sector level for calibrating the
LoadMAP model to known data for the base-year.
Market Profiles
The next step was to develop market profiles for each sector, customer segment, end use, and
technology. A market profile includes the following elements:
• Market size is a representation of the number of customers in the segment. For the residential
sector, it is number of households. In the commercial sector, it is floor space measured in square
feet. For the industrial sector, it is overall electricity use.
• Saturations define the fraction of homes or square feet with the various technologies. (e.g.,
homes with electric space heating).
• UEC (unit energy consumption) or EUI (energy-use index) describes the amount of energy
consumed in 2015 by a specific technology in buildings that have the technology. For electricity,
UECs are expressed in kWh/household for the residential sector, and EU Is are expressed in
kWh/square foot for the commercial sector.
• Annual Energy Intensity for the residential sector represents the average energy use for the
technology across all homes in 2015. It is computed as the product of the saturation and the UEC
and is defined as kWh/household for electricity. For the commercial sector, intensity, computed
as the product of the saturation and the EU!, represents the average use for the technology
across all floor space in 2015.
• Annual Usage is the annual energy use by an end-use technology in the segment. It is the
product of the market size and intensity and is quantified in GWh.
• Peak Demand for each technology, summer peak and winter peak are calculated using peak
fractions of annual energy use from AEG's EnergyShape library and Avista system peak data.
The market characterization results and the market profiles are presented in Chapter 3.
BASELINE PROJECTION
The next step was to develop the baseline projection of annual electricity use and summer peak
demand for 2015 through 2037 by customer segment and end use without new utility programs. The
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end-use projection includes the impacts of relatively certain codes and standards which will unfold
over the study timeframe. All such mandates that were defined as of September 2016 are included in
the baseline. The baseline projection is the foundation for the analysis of savings from future
conservation efforts as well as the metric against which potential savings are measured.
Inputs to the baseline projection include:
• Current economic growth forecasts [i.e., customer growth, income growth)
• Electricity price forecasts
• Trends in fuel shares and equipment saturations
• Existing and approved changes to building codes and equipment standards
• Avista's internally developed sector-level projections for electricity sales
We also developed a baseline projection for summer and winter peak by applying the peak fractions
from the energy market profiles to the annual energy forecast in each year.
We present the baseline-projection results for the system as a whole and for each sector in Chapter 4.
CONSERVATION MEASURE ANALYSIS
This section describes the framework used to assess the savings, costs, and other attributes of
conservation measures. These characteristics form the basis for measure-level cost-effectiveness
analyses as well as for determining measure-level savings. For all measures, AEG assembled
information to reflect equipment performance, incremental costs, and equipment lifetimes. We used
this information, along with the Seventh Plan's updated ramp rates to identify achievable technical
measure potential.
Conservation Measures
Figure 2-2 outlines the framework for conservation measure analysis. The framework for assessing
savings, costs, and other attributes of conservation measures involves identifying the list of measures
to include in the analysis, determining their applicability to each market sector and segment, fully
characterizing each measure, and calculating the levelized cost of energy ($/MWh). Potential measures
include the replacement of a unit that has failed or is at the end of its useful life with an efficient unit,
retrofit or early replacement of equipment, improvements to the building envelope, the application of
controls to optimize energy use, and other actions resulting in improved energy efficiency.
We compiled a robust list of conservation measures for each customer sector, drawing upon Avista's
measure database, the Seventh Plan, and the Regional Technical Forum (RTF) deemed measures
database, as well as a variety of secondary sources. This universal list of conservation measures covers
all major types of end-use equipment, as well as devices and actions to reduce energy consumption.
Since an economic screen was not performed in this Study, we have instead calculated the levelized
cost of energy (LCOE) for each measure evaluated. This value, expressed in dollars per first-year
megawatt hour (MWh) saved, can be used by Avista's !RP model to evaluate cost effectiveness. To
calculate a measure's LCOE, first-year measure costs, annual non-energy benefits, and annual
operations and maintenance (O&M) costs are levelized over a measure's lifetime, then divided by the
first-year savings in MWh. Note that while non-energy benefits are typically included in the numerator
of a traditional TRC economic screen, the LCOE benefits have not been monetized. Therefore, these
benefits are instead subtracted from the costs portion of the test.
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Figure 2-2 Approach for Conservation Measure Assessment
Inputs Process
Client review I feedback
Client measure data library
(TRMs, evaluation
reports, etc)
AEG measure data library
Building simulations
The selected measures are categorized into two types according to the Load MAP taxonomy: equipment
measures and non-equipment measures.
• Equipment measures are efficient energy-consuming pieces of equipment that save energy by
providing the same service with a lower energy requirement than a standard unit. An example is
an ENERGY STAR refrigerator that replaces a standard efficiency refrigerator. For equipment
measures, many efficiency levels may be available for a given technology, ranging from the
baseline unit (often determined by code or standard) up to the most efficient product
commercially available. For instance, in the case of central air conditioners, this list begins with
the current federal standard SEER 13 unit and spans a broad spectrum up to a maximum
efficiency of a SEER 21 unit. The Seventh Plan's "Lost Opportunity" ramp rates are primarily
applied to equipment measures.
• Non-equipment measures save energy by reducing the need for delivered energy, but do not
involve replacement or purchase of major end-use equipment (such as a refrigerator or air
conditioner). An example would be a programmable thermostat that is pre-set to run heating and
cooling systems only when people are home. Non-equipment measures can apply to more than
one end use. For instance, addition of wall insulation will affect the energy use of both space
heating and cooling. The Seventh Plan's "Retrofit" ramp rates are primarily applied to no­
equipment measures. Non-equipment measures typically fall into one of the following categories:
o Building shell (windows, insulation, roofing material)
o Equipment controls (thermostat, compressor staging and controls)
o Equipment maintenance (cleaning filters, changing setpoints)
o Whole-building design (building orientation, advanced new construction designs)
o Lighting retrofits (included as a non-equipment measure because retrofits are performed
prior to the equipment's normal end of life)
o Displacement measures (ceiling fan to reduce use of central air conditioners)
o Commissioning and retrocommissioning (initial or ongoing monitoring of building energy
systems to optimize energy use)
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We developed a preliminary list of conservation measures, which was distributed to the Avista project
team for review. The list was finalized after incorporating comments and is presented in the appendix
to this volume.
Once we assembled the list of conservation measures, the project team characterized measure savings,
incremental cost, service life, and other performance factors, drawing upon data from the Avista
measure database, the Seventh Power Plan, the RTF deemed measure workbooks, simulation
modeling, and other well-vetted sources as required.
REPRESENTATIVE CONSERVATION MEASURE DATA INPUTS
To provide an example of the conservation measure data, Table 2-2 and Table 2-3 present examples of
the detailed data inputs behind both equipment and non-equipment measures, respectively, for the
case of residential CAC in single-family homes. Table 2-2 displays the various efficiency levels available
as equipment measures, as well as the corresponding useful life, energy usage, and cost estimates. The
columns labeled "On Market" and "Off Market" reflect equipment availability due to codes and
standards or the entry of new products to the market. Note that in this example no standards come
into play and therefore all options are available throughout the forecast.
Table 2-2 Example Equipment Measures for Central AC - Single-Family Home
Efficiency Level Useful Life (yrs) Equipment Energy Usage On Off
Cost (kWh/yr) Market Market
SEER 13.0 8 to 22 $2,030.66 1,159 2015 n/a
SEER 14.0 8 to 22 $2,425.51 1,063 2015 n/a
SEER 15.0 8 to 22 $2,820.36 1,028 2015 n/a
SEER 16.0 8 to 22 $3,215.22 998 2015 n/a
SEER 18.0 8 to 22 $4,008.24 951 2015 n/a
SEER 21.0 8 to 22 $4,681.94 901 2015 n/a
Table 2-3 lists some of the non-equipment measures applicable to a CAC in an existing single family
home. LCOE values for all measures are evaluated based on the lifetime costs of the measure divided
by the first-year savings. The total costs and savings are calculated for each year of the study and
depend on the base year saturation of the measure, the applicability3 of the measure, and the savings
as a percentage of the relevant energy end uses.
3 The applicability factors take into account whether the measure is applicable to a particular building type and whether it is feasible
to install the measure. For instance, attic fans are not applicable to homes where there is insufficient space in the attic or there is no
attic at all.
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566
Example Non-Equipment Measures - Single Family Home, Existing
Saturation Applica- Lifetime Measure Energy
End Use Measure in 20154 bility (yrs) Installed Savings
Cost {%)
Cooling Insulation - Ceiling Installation 12.5% 25.0% 45 $1,191.58 15.77%
Cooling Insulation - Wall Cavity Installation 15.0% 30.0% 45 $2,587.65 3.94%
Cooling Ducting - Repair and Sealing 15.0% 50.0% 20 $636.06 3.41%
Cooling Windows - High Efficiency/ENERGY STAR 10.0% 37.5% 45 $3,249.66 6.44%
Cooling Thermostat - Wi-Fi/lnteractive 5.0% 75.0% 10 $260.84 3.72%
Table 2-4 summarizes the number of measures evaluated for each segment within each sector.
Table 2-4 Number of Measures Evaluated
Sector Total Measures Measure Permutations Measure Permutations
w/ 2 Vintages w/ Segments
Residential 80 160 1,280
Commercial 97 194 4,268
Industrial 93 186 372
Total Measures Evaluated 270 540 5,920
CONSERVATION POTENTIAL
The approach we used for this study to calculate the conservation potential adheres to the approaches
and conventions outlined in the National Action Plan for Energy-Efficiency (NAPEE) Guide for
Conducting Potential Studies (November 2007).5 The NAPEE Guide represents the most credible and
comprehensive industry practice for specifying conservation potential. As described in Chapter 2, two
types of potential were developed as part of this effort: technical potential, and achievable technical
potential.
• Technical potential is a theoretical construct that assumes the highest efficiency measures that
are technically feasible to install are adopted by customers, regardless of cost or customer
preferences. Thus, determining the technical potential is relatively straightforward. LoadMAP
"chooses" the most efficient equipment options for each technology at the time of equipment
replacement. In addition, it installs all relevant non-equipment measures for each technology to
calculate savings. For example, for central air conditioning, as shown in Table 2-2, the most
efficient option is a SEER 21. The multiple non-equipment measures shown in Table 2-3 are then
applied to the energy used by the SEER 21 system to further reduce air conditioning energy use.
LoadMAP applies the savings due to the non-equipment measures one-by-one to avoid double
counting of savings. The measures are evaluated in order of their LCOE ratio, with the measure
with the lowest LCOE values applied first. Each time a measure is applied, the baseline energy
use for the end use is reduced and the percentage savings for the next measure is applied to the
revised (lower) usage.
• Achievable technical potential constrains technical potential by applying market adoption rates
for each measure that estimate the percentage of customers who would be likely to select each
measure, given consumer preferences (partially a function of incentive levels), retail energy
rates, imperfect information, and real market barriers and conditions. These barriers tend to
vary, depending on the customer sector, local energy market conditions, and other, hard-to-
4 Note that saturation levels reflected for the base year change over time as more measures are adopted.
5 National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (2007). National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Vision for 2025: Developing a Framework
for Change. www.epa.eov /eeactionplan.
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567
quantify factors. In addition to utility-sponsored programs, alternative acquisition methods, such
as improved codes and standards and market transformation, can be used to capture portions of
these resources, and are included within the achievable technical potential, per 7th Power Plan
methodology.
The calculation of technical potential is a straightforward algorithm. To develop estimates for
achievable technical potential, we develop market adoption rates for each measure that specify the
percentage of customers that will select the highest-efficiency economic option. For Avista, the project
team began with the ramp rates specified in the Seventh Plan conservation workbooks, but modified
these to match Avista program history and service territory specifics. We examined historic program
results for the most recent program years. We then adjusted the 2018 achievable technical potential
for these measures to approximately match the historical results. This provided a starting for 2018
potential that was aligned to historic results. In future years, the potential factors increased to a
maximum of 85%, 55% for emerging technologies, to model increasing market acceptance and
program improvements. For measures within the Seventh Plan, the Council's prescribed ramp rates
were used. For measures outside the Seventh Plan, AEG assigned ramp rates comparable to similar
measures within the Seventh Plan. The market adoption rates for each measure appear in Appendix B.
Results of all the potentials analysis are presented in Chapter 5.
DATA DEVELOPMENT
This section details the data sources used in this study, followed by a discussion of how these sources
were applied. In general, data sources were applied in the following order: Avista data, Pacific
Northwest data, and well-vetted national or other regional secondary sources.
DATA SOURCES
The data sources are organized into the following categories:
• Avista data
• Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance data
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council data
• AEG's databases and analysis tools
• Other secondary data and reports
Avista Data
Our highest priority data sources for this study were those that were specific to Avista.
• Avista customer data: Avista provided billing data for development of customer counts and
energy use for each sector. We also used the results of the Avista Gen POP survey, a residential
saturation survey.
• Load forecasts: Avista provided an economic growth forecast by sector; electric load forecast;
peak-demand forecasts at the sector level; and retail electricity price history and forecasts.
• Economic information: Avista Power provided a discount rate and line loss factor. Avoided costs
were not provided due to the economic screen being moved to the !RP model.
• Avista program data: Avista provided information about past and current programs, including
program descriptions, goals, and achievements to date.
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Data
The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance conducts research on an ongoing basis for the Northwest
region. The following studies were particularly useful for this study:
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• Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment Single­
Family, Market Research Report, http: //neea.org/docs /reports/residential-building-stock­
assessment-single-family-characteristics-and-energy-use.pdf?sfvrsn=8
• Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment:
Manufactured Home, Market Research Report, #El3-249, January, 2013.
http: //neea.org/docs I default-source /reports /residential-building-stock-assessment-­
manufactured-homes-characteristics-and-energy-use.pdf?sfvrsn=8
• Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, Long-Term Northwest Residential Lighting Tracking and
Monitoring Study, Market Research Report, 11-228, August, 2011.
http: //neea.org/research /reports/El 1-231 Combinedv2.pdf
• Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment:
Multifamily, Market Research Report, #13-263, September, 2013. http://neea.org/docs/default­
sou rce /reports /res i den tia 1-bui Id in g-stock-assess men t--m u I ti-family-characteristics-and-energy­
use .pdf?s fvrsn =4
• Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2014 Commercial Building Stock Assessment, December
16, 2014, http: //neea.org/docs/default-source /reports /2014-cbsa-final-report 05-dec-
2014.pdf?sfvrsn=12
• Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2014 Industrial Facilities Site Assessment, December 29,
2014, http: //neea.oq�/docs /default-source /reports /2014-ind ustrial-facilities-stock-assessment­
fi nal- report. pdf?s fvrs n = 6
Northwest Power and Conservation Council Data
Several sources of data were used to characterize the conservation measures. We used the following
regional data sources and supplemented with AEG's data sources to fill in any gaps.
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council Seventh Plan Conservation Supply Curve
Workbooks. To develop its Seventh Power Plan, the Council used workbooks with detailed
information about measures, available at
https: //nwcouncil.app. box.com Iv /7thplanconservationdatafiles
• Regional Technical Forum Deemed Measures. The NWPCC Regional Technical Forum maintains
databases of deemed measure savings data, available at
http: //www.nwcouncil.org/energy/rtf /measures/Default.asp .
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council, MC and Loadshape File, September 29, 2016. The
Council's load shape library was utilized to convert CPA results into hourly conservation impacts
for use in Avista's IRP process. Generalized Least Square (GLS) versions of these load shapes are
available at https: //nwcouncil.app.box.com/s/gacr2 lz8i89hh8ppkl lrdzgm6fz4xlz3
AEG DATA
AEG maintains several databases and modeling tools that we use for forecasting and potential studies.
Relevant data from these tools has been incorporated into the analysis and deliverables for this study.
• AEG Energy Market Profiles: For more than 10 years, AEG staff has maintained profiles of end­
use consumption for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. These profiles include
market size, fuel shares, unit consumption estimates, and annual energy use by fuel (electricity
and natural gas), customer segment and end use for 10 regions in the U.S. The Energy
Information Administration surveys (RECS, CBECS and MECS) as well as state-level statistics and
local customer research provide the foundation for these regional profiles.
• Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST). AEG's BEST is a derivative of the DOE 2.2 building
simulation model, used to estimate base-year UECs and EUls, as well as measure savings for the
HVAC-related measures.
• AEG's EnergyShape™: AEG's load shape database was used in addition to the Council's load
shape database for comparative purposes. This database of load shapes includes the following:
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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o Residential - electric load shapes for ten regions, three housing types, 13 end uses
o Commercial - electric load shapes for nine regions, 54 building types, ten end uses
o Industrial - electric load shapes, whole facility only, 19 2-digit SIC codes, as well as various
3-digit and 4-digit SIC codes
• AEG's Database of Energy Efficiency Measures (DEEM): AEG maintains an extensive database of
measure data for our studies. Our database draws upon reliable sources including the California
Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER), the EIA Technology Forecast Updates -
Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Reference Case, RS Means cost data, and
Grainger Catalog Cost data.
• Recent studies. AEG has conducted numerous studies of EE potential in the last five years. We
checked our input assumptions and analysis results against the results from these other studies,
which include Tacoma Power, Idaho Power, PacifiCorp, Ameren Missouri, Vectren Energy,
Indianapolis Power & Light, Tennessee Valley Authority, Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois, and
Seattle City Light. In addition, we used the information about impacts of building codes and
appliance standards from recent reports for the Edison Electric Institute6•
OTHER SECONDARY DATA AND REPORTS
Finally, a variety of secondary data sources and reports were used for this study. The main sources are
identified below.
• Annual Energy Outlook. The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), conducted each year by the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents yearly projections and analysis of energy
topics. For this study, we used data from the 2016 AEO.
• Local Weather Data: Weather from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center for Spokane, WA was
used as the basis for building simulations.
• EPRI End-Use Models (REEPS and COMMEND). These models provide the elasticities we apply to
electricity prices, household income, home size and heating and cooling.
• Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER). The California Energy Commission and
California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) sponsor this database, which is designed to
provide well-documented estimates of energy and peak demand savings values, measure costs,
and effective useful life (EUL) for the state of California. We used the DEER database to cross
check the measure savings we developed using BEST and DEEM.
• Other relevant regional sources: These include reports from the Consortium for Energy
Efficiency, the EPA, and the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.
DATA APPLICATION
We now discuss how the data sources described above were used for each step of the study.
Data Application for Market Characterization
To construct the high-level market characterization of electricity use and households/floor space for
the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, we used Avista billing data and customer surveys
to estimate energy use.
6 AEG staff has prepared three white papers on the topic of factors that affect U.S. electricity consumption,
including appliance standards and building codes. Links to all three white papers are provided:
http://www. edisonfoundation. net/IEE/Documents/IEE Rohm u ndAppl ia nceStandardsEfficiencyCodes 1209. pdf
http://www.edisonfoundation.net/iee/Documents/IEE CodesandStandardsAssessment 2010-2025 U PDATE.pdf.
http://www. ed isonfou ndation. net/ iee/ Documents/IEE FactorsAffecti ng USElecConsu motion Fina I. pdf
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
570
• For the residential sector, Avista estimated the numbers of customers and the average energy use
per customer for each of the three segments, based on its GenPOP survey, matched to billing data
for surveyed customers. AEG compared the resulting segmentation with data from the American
Community Survey (ACS) regarding housing types and income and found that the Avista
segmentation corresponded well with the ACS data. (See Chapter 3 for additional details.)
• To segment the commercial and industrial segments, we relied upon the allocation from the
previous energy efficiency potential study. For the previous study, customers and sales were
allocated to building type based on SIC codes, with some adjustments between the commercia I
and industrial sectors to better group energy use by facility type and predominate end uses. (See
Chapter 3 for additional details.)
DATA APPLICATION FOR MARKET PROFILES
The specific data elements for the market profiles, together with the key data sources, are shown in
Table 2-5. To develop the market profiles for each segment, we did the following:
1. Developed control totals for each segment. These include market size, segment-level annual
electricity use, and annual intensity.
2. Used the Avista GenPOP Survey, NEEA's RBSA, NEEA's CBSA, NEEA's !FSA, and AEG's Energy
Market Profiles database to develop existing appliance saturations, appliance and equipment
characteristics, and building characteristics.
3. Ensured calibration to control totals for annual electricity sales in each sector and segment.
4. Compared and cross-checked with other recent AEG studies.
5. Worked with Avista staff to vet the data against their knowledge and experience.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
571
Data Application for Baseline Projection
Table 2-5 summarizes the LoadMAP model inputs required for the baseline projection. These inputs
are required for each segment within each sector, as well as for new construction and existing
dwellings/buildings.
Table 2-5 Data Applied for the Market Profiles
Model Inputs
Market size
Annual intensity
Appliance/equipment
saturations
UEC/EUI for each end­
use technology
Appliance/equipment
age distribution
Efficiency options for
each technology
Peak factors
Description
Base-year residential dwellings, commercial
floor space, and industrial employment
Residential: Annual use per household
Commercial: Annual use per square foot
Industrial: Annual use per employee
Fraction of dwellings with an
a ppl ia nee/tech no logy
Percentage of C&I floor space/employment
with equipment/technology
UEC: Annual electricity use in homes and
buildings that have the technology
EUI: Annual electricity use per square
foot/employee for a technology in floor space
that has the technology
Age distribution for each technology
List of available efficiency options and annual
energy use for each technology
Share of technology energy use that occurs
during the peak hour
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Key Sources
Avista billing data
Avista GenPOP Survey
NEEA RBSA and CBSA
AEO 2016
Avista billing data
AEG's Energy Market Profiles
NEEA RBSA and CBSA
AEO 2016
Other recent studies
Avista Gen POP Survey
NEEA RBSA and CBSA
AEG's Energy Market Profiles
Avista Load Forecasting
NWPCC Seventh Plan and RTF data
HVAC uses: BEST simulations using
prototypes developed for Idaho
Engineering analysis
DEEM
Recent AEG studies
NWPCC Seventh Plan and RTF data
NEEA regional survey data
Utility saturation surveys
Recent AEG studies
AEG DEEM
AEO 2016
DEER
NWPCC workbooks, RTF
Previous studies
EnergyShape database
Table 2-5
572
Data Needs for the Baseline Projection and Potentials Estimation in LoadMAP
Model Inputs
Customer growth forecasts
Equipment purchase shares
for baseline projection
Utilization model parameters
Description
Forecasts of new construction in
residential and C&I sectors
For each equipment/technology, purchase
shares for each efficiency level; specified
separately for existing equipment
replacement and new construction
Price elasticities, elasticities for other
variables (income, weather)
Key Sources
Avista load forecast
AEO 2016 economic growth forecast
Shipments data from AEO
AEO 2016 regional forecast
assumptions7
Appliance/efficiency standards
analysis
Avista program results and
evaluation reports
EPRl's REEPS and COMMEND models
AEO 2016
In addition, we implemented assumptions for known future equipment standards as of September
2016, as shown in Table 2-6, Table 2-7 and Table 2-8. The assumptions tables here extend through
2025, after which all standards are assumed to hold steady.
7 We developed baseline purchase decisions using the Energy Information Agency's Annual Energy Outlook report (2016), which
utilizes the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to produce a self-consistent supply and demand economic model. We calibrated
equipment purchase options to match manufacturer shipment data for recent years and then held values constant for the study period.
This removes any effects of naturally occurring conservation or effects of future EE programs that may be embedded in the AEO
forecasts.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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576
CONSERVATION MEASURE DATA APPLICATION
Table 2-9 details the energy-efficiency data inputs to the Load MAP model. It describes each input and
identifies the key sources used in the Avista analysis.
Table 2-9 Data Needs for the Measure Characteristics in LoadMAP
Model Inputs
Energy Impacts
Peak Demand Impacts
Costs
Measure Lifetimes
Applicability
On Market and Off
Market Availability
Description
The annual reduction in consumption attributable to
each specific measure. Savings were developed as a
percentage of the energy end use that the measure
affects.
Savings during the peak demand periods are
specified for each electric measure. These impacts
relate to the energy savings and depend on the
extent to which each measure is coincident with the
system peak.
Equipment Measures: Includes the full cost of
purchasing and installing the equipment on a per­
household, per-square-foot, per employee or per
service point basis for the residential, commercial,
and industrial sectors, respectively.
Non-equipment measures: Existing buildings - full
installed cost. New Construction - the costs may be
either the full cost of the measure, or as
appropriate, it may be the incremental cost of
upgrading from a standard level to a higher
efficiency level.
Estimates derived from the technical data and
secondary data sources that support the measure
demand and energy savings analysis.
Estimate of the percentage of dwellings in the
residential sector, square feet in the commercial
sector, or employees in the industrial sector where
the measure is applicable and where it is technically
feasible to implement.
Expressed as years for equipment measures to
reflect when the equipment technology is available
or no longer available in the market.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Key Sources
Avista measure data
NPCC Seventh Plan
conservation workbooks
BEST
AEG DEEM
AEO 2016
DEER
NPCC workbooks, RTF
Other secondary sources
Avista measure data
NPCC Seventh Plan
conservation workbooks
BEST
AEG DEEM
EnergyShape
Avista measure data
NPCC Seventh Plan
conservation workbooks
RTF deemed measure
database
AEG DEEM
AEO 2016
DEER
RS Means
Other secondary sources
Avista measure data
NPCC Seventh Plan
conservation workbooks
RTF deemed measure
database
AEG DEEM
AEO 2016
DEER
Other secondary sources
Avista measure data
NPCC Seventh Plan
conservation workbooks
RTF deemed measure
database
AEG DEEM
DEER
Other secondary sources
AEG appliance standards and
building codes analysis
577
DATA APPLICATION FOR ACHIEVABLE TECHNICAL POTENTIAL
To estimate achievable technical potential, two sets of parameters are needed to represent customer
decision making behavior with respect to energy-efficiency choices.
• Technical diffusion curves for non-equipment measures. Equipment measures are installed
when existing units fail. Non-equipment measures do not have this natural periodicity, so rather
than installing all available non-equipment measures in the first year of the projection
(instantaneous potential), they are phased in according to adoption schedules that generally
align with the diffusion of similar equipment measures. In the 2016 CPA, we applied the
"Retrofit" ramp rates from the Seventh Power Plan directly as diffusion curves. For technical
potential, these rates summed up to 100% by the 20th for most measures. Emerging technologies
summed to 65% by the 20th year.
• Adoption rates. Customer adoption rates or take rates are applied to technical potential to
estimate achievable technical potential. For equipment measures, the Council's "Lost
Opportunity" ramp rates were applied to technical potential with a maximum achievability of
85% for most measures and 55% for emerging technologies. For non-equipment measures, the
Council's "Retrofit" ramp rates have already been applied to calculate technical diffusion. In this
case, we multiply each of these by 85% for most measures and 55% for emerging technologies to
calculate achievable technical potential. Adoption rates are presented in Appendix 8.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
---------------------------------
578
3
MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES
In this section, we describe how customers in the Avista service territory use electricity in the base
year of the study, 2015. It begins with a high-level summary of energy use across all sectors and then
delves into each sector in more detail.
ENERGY USE SUMMARY
Total electricity use for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors for Avista in 2015 was 8,108
GWh; 5,588 GWh (WA) and 2,520 GWh (ID). As shown in the tables below, in both states the residential
sector accounts for 44% of the annual energy use, followed by commercial at 38% of the annual energy
use. In terms of winter peak demand, the total system peak in 2015 was 1,661 MW; 1,156 (WA) and
SOS MW (ID). In both states, the residential sector contributes the most to the winter peak.
Figure 3-1 Sector-Level Electricity Use in Base Year 2015, Washington
Annual Use (GWh) Winter Peak (MW)
Table 3-1 Avista Sector Control Totals (201 SJ, Washington
Annual Electricity %of Winter Peak % of Sector Demand Use (GWh) Annual Use (MW) Winter Peak
Residential 2,458 44% sos 44%
Commercial 2,148 38% 464 40%
Industrial 982 18% 187 16%
Total 5,588 100% 1,156 100%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 3-2
579
Sector-Level Electricity Use in Base Year 2015, Idaho
Annual Use (GWh} Winter Peak (MW}
Table 3-2 Avista Sector Control Totals (2015), Idaho
Sector Annual Electricity % of
Use (GWh) Annual Use
Residential 1,161 46%
Commercial 985 39%
Industrial 373 15%
Total 2,520 100%
Winter Peak
Demand
(MW)
231
193
81
505
% of
Winter Peak
46%
38%
16%
100%
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
The total number of households and electricity sales for the service territory were obtained from
Avista's customer database. In 2015, there were 219,546 households in the state of Washington that
used a total of 2,458 GWh with winter peak demand of SOS MW. Average use per customer (or
household) at 11,197 kWh is about average compared to other regions of the country. We allocated
these totals into four residential segments and the values are shown in Table 3-3.
Table 3-4 shows the total number of households and electricity sales in the state of Idaho. In 2015,
there were 110,289 households that used a total of 1,161 GWh with winter peak demand of 231 MW.
Average use per customer (or household) was 10,530 kWh.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 3-3
580
Residential Sector Control Totals (2015), Washington
Number of Electricity Use % of Annual Annual Winter Peak Segment Use/Customer Customers (GWh) Use (kWh/HH) (MW)
Single Family 133,484 1,721 70% 12,894 343
Multifamily 12,295 95 4% 7,737 24
Manufactured Home 7,904 92 4% 11,605 18
Low Income 65,864 550 22% 8,353 120
Total 219,546 2,458 100% 11,197 sos
Table 3-4 Residential Sector Control Totals (2015), Idaho
Number of Electricity Use % of Annual Annual Winter Peak Segment Use/Customer Customers (GWh) Use (kWh/HH) (MW)
Single Family 67,055 811 70% 12,094 160
Multifamily 5,404 39 3% 7,249 9
Manufactured Home 4,963 54 5% 10,873 10
Low Income 32,866 257 22% 7,826 52
Total 110,289 1,161 100% 10,530 231
As we describe in the previous chapter, the market profiles provide the foundation for development of
the baseline projection and the potential estimates. The average market profile for the residential
sector is presented in Table 3-5 (WA) and Table 3-6 (ID). Segment-specific market profiles are
presented in Appendix A.
Figure 3-3 (WA) and Figure 3-4 (ID) show the distribution of annual electricity use by end use for all
customers. Two main electricity end uses -appliances and space heating- account for approximately
50% of total use. Appliances include refrigerators, freezers, stoves, clothes washers, clothes dryers,
dishwashers, and microwaves. The remainder of the energy falls into the water heating, lighting,
cooling, electronics, and the miscellaneous category - which is comprised offurnace fans, pool pumps,
electric vehicles, and other "plug" loads (all other usage not covered by those listed in Table 3-5 and
Table 3-6 such as hair dryers, power tools, coffee makers, etc.).
The charts also show estimates of winter peak demand by end use. As expected, heating is the largest
contributor to winter peak demand, followed by appliances, lighting, and water heating.
Figure 3-5 (WA) and Figure 3-6 (ID) present the electricity intensities by end use and housing type.
Single family homes have the highest use per customer at 12,894 kWh/year (WA) and 12,094
kWh/year (ID).
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 3-3
581
Residential Electricity Use and Winter Peak Demand by End Use (2015), Washington
Miscellaneous
7%
9%
2%
Annual Use by End Use
Cooling
6%
11%
Winter Peak Demand
Electronics Miscellaneous
Exterior Lighting
3%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 3-4
582
Residential Electricity Use and Winter Peak Demand by End Use (2015), Idaho
Miscellaneous
5%
3%
Annual Use by End Use
Winter Peak Demand
Miscellaneous
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Cooling
5%
Figure 3-5
583
Residential Intensity by End Use and Segment (Annual kWh/HH, 2015), Washington
Total
Low Income
Manufactured Home
Multifamily
Single Family
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Intensity {kWh/HH)
•Cooling
• Heating
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Appliances
• Electronics
• Miscellaneous
Figure 3-6 Residential Intensity by End Use and Segment {Annual kWh/HH, 2015), Idaho
Total
Low Income
Manufactured Home
Multifamily
Single Family
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Intensity {kWh/HH)
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
•Cooling
• Heating
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Appliances
• Electronics
• Miscellaneous
584
Table 3-5 Average Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2015, Washington
UEC Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation
(kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh)
Cooling Central AC 37.30% 1,303 486 107
Cooling Room AC 26.23% 384 101 22
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 6.72% 1,298 87 19
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.19% 1,384 3 1
Cooling Evaporative AC 1.21% 844 10 2
Space Heating Electric Room Heat 24.29% 4,746 1,153 253
Space Heating Electric Furnace 13.30% 8,139 1,082 238
Space Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 6.72% 9,232 621 136
Space Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.19% 5,007 9 2
Water Heating Water Heater(<= 55 Gal) 51.42% 3,033 1,560 342
Water Heating Water Heater(> 55 Gal) 6.81% 3,189 217 48
Interior Lighting General Service Screw-In 100.00% 868 868 191
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.00% 90 90 20
Interior Lighting Exempted Screw-In 100.00% 261 261 57
Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.00% 253 253 56
Appliances Clothes Washer 92.47% 91 84 18
Appliances Clothes Dryer 50.62% 745 377 83
Appliances Dishwasher 78.40% 414 325 71
Appliances Refrigerator 100.00% 771 771 169
Appliances Freezer 55.57% 620 344 76
Appliances Second Refrigerator 20.77% 940 195 43
Appliances Stove/Oven 70.85% 452 320 70
Appliances Microwave 97.20% 138 134 29
Electronics Personal Computers 65.03% 192 125 27
Electronics Monitor 77.06% 81 62 14
Electronics Laptops 91.59% so 46 10
Electronics TVs 180.64% 255 460 101
Electronics Printer /Fax/Copier 73.42% 65 47 10
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 166.76% 119 199 44
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.00% 112 112 25
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.18% 4,324 8 2
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 1.93% 2,514 49 11
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.48% 4,025 19 4
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 59.05% 187 111 24
Miscellaneous Well pump 9.31% 642 60 13
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.00% 547 547 120
Total 11,197 2,458
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
585
Table 3-6 Average Market Profile for the Residential Sector, 2015, Idaho
UEC Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh) --- Cooling Central AC 33.84% 1,161 393 43
Cooling Room AC 18.46% 386 71 8
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 5.48% 1,301 71 8
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.00% 0 0 0 - --- Cooling Evaporative AC 1.54% 796 12 1
Space Heating Electric Room Heat 24.23% 5,586 1,353 149
Space Heating Electric Furnace 12.99% 7,848 1,020 112 -- Space Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 5.48% 9,220 sos 56
Space Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.00% 0 0 0
Water Heating Water Heater(<= SS Gal) 49.79% 2,910 1,449 160
Water Heating Water Heater(> 55 Gal) 6.60% 3,059 202 22
Interior Lighting General Service Screw-In 100.00% 967 967 107
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.00% 123 123 14
Interior Lighting Exempted Screw-In 100.00% 226 226 25
Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.00% 286 286 32
Appliances Clothes Washer 85.56% 86 73 8
Appliances Clothes Dryer 60.89% 751 457 so
Appliances Dishwasher 78.87% 388 306 34
Appliances Refrigerator 100.00% 725 725 80
Appliances Freezer 52.50% 588 309 34
Appliances Second Refrigerator 21.15% 866 183 20
Appliances Stove/Oven 64.06% 428 274 30
Appliances Microwave 93.43% 129 121 13
Electronics Personal Computers 57.60% 177 102 11
Electronics Monitor 68.26% 75 51 6
Electronics Laptops 95.17% 46 44 5
Electronics TVs 177.78% 245 436 48
Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier 67.53% 60 41 4
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 107.21% 111 119 13
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.00% 105 105 12
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.06% 4,324 3 0
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 1.61% 2,300 37 4
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.40% 3,682 15 2
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 60.01% 180 108 12
Miscellaneous Well pump 12.52% 587 73 8
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.00% 271 271 30
Total 10,530 1,161
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
586
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
The total electric energy consumed by commercial customers in Avista's service area in 2015 was
2,148 GWh (WA) and 985 GWh (ID). Avista billing data, CBSA and secondary data were used to allocate
this energy usage to building type segments and to develop estimates of energy intensity (annual
kWh/square foot). Using the electricity use and intensity estimates, we infer floor space which is the
unit of analysis in LoadMAP for the commercial sector. The values are shown in Table 3- 7 (WA) and
Table 3-8 (ID). The average building intensities by segment are based on regional information from
the CBSA, therefore the intensity is the same both states. However, due to the different mix of building
types overall end use mix is different as shown in Figure 3-9 and Figure 3-10.
Table 3-7 Commercial Sector Control Totals (2015), Washington
Segment Electricity Sales % of Total Intensity
(GWh) Usage (Annual kWh/SqFt)
Small Office 288 13% 15.3
Large Office 109 5% 17.4
Restaurant 72 3% 42.0
Retail 294 14% 13.7
Grocery 215 10% 46.8
College 80 4% 13.8
School 121 6% 9.7
Health 279 13% 28.8
Lodging 115 5% 15.9
Warehouse 106 5% 7.4
Miscellaneous 468 22% 13.6
Total 2,148 100% 15.7
Table 3-8 Commercial Sector Control Totals (2015), Idaho
Segment Electricity Sales % of Total Intensity
(GWh) Usage (Annual kWh/SqFt}
Small Office 136 6% 15.3
Large Office 17 1% 17.4
Restaurant 13 1% 42.0
Retail 169 8% 13.7
Grocery 93 4% 46.8
College 74 3% 13.8
School 111 5% 9.7
Health 107 5% 28.8
Lodging 49 2% 15.9
Warehouse 48 2% 7.4
Miscellaneous 170 8% 13.6
Total 985 46% 14.7
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
587
Figure 3-7 (WA) and Figure 3-8 (ID) show the distribution of annual electricity consumption and
summer peak demand by end use across all commercial buildings. Electric usage is dominated by
cooling and lighting, which comprise almost 40% of annual electricity usage. Summer peak demand is
dominated by cooling.
Figure 3-9 (WA) and Figure 3-10 (ID) presents the electricity usage in GWh by end use and segment.
Small offices, retail, and miscellaneous buildings use the most electricity in the service territory. As far
as end uses, cooling and lighting are the major uses across all segments. Office equipment is
concentrated more in the larger customers.
Figure 3-7 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption by End Use (2015), Washington
Annual Use by End Use
Miscellaneous
8%
Office Equipment
7%
4%
Exterior Lighting
8%
Interior Lighting
20%
Water Heating
3%
Winter Peak Demand
Miscellaneous Cooling
Office Equipment
7%
4%
Refrigeration
7%
Exterior Lighting
3%
Water Heating
4%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 3-8
588
Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption by End Use (2015), Idaho
Annual Use by End Use
Miscellaneous
8%
Office Equipment
6%
Food Preparation
4%
Refrigeration
8%
Interior Lighting
21%
Water Heating
3%
Winter Peak Demand
Office Equipment
7%
3%
Refrigeration
7%
Exterior Lighting
3%
Interior Lighting
24%
Water Heating
4%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
589
Figure 3-9 Commercial Electricity Usage by End Use Segment (GWh, 2015), Washington
• Cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
•Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Refrigeration
• Food Preparation
• Office Equipment
• Miscellaneous
500
450 I ? 400 3 £ 350
Bl 300 II ::, I I � 250
Q) - - c: 200 uJ ro ::::, 150 - - c: c: 100 - - <! - so !!!!!!!!
0
Figure 3-10 Commercial Electricity Usage by End Use Segment (GWh, 2015), Idaho
• Cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Refrigeration
• Food Preparation
• Office Equipment
• Miscellaneous
I - -
180
160
:2 140 3 £ 120
(1) "' ::, 100
� 80 (1) c: uJ - "iij 60 ::::, c: c: 40 <!
20 - 0 -
Table 3-9 (WA) and Table 3-10 (ID) show the average market profile for electricity of the commercial
sector as a whole, representing a composite of all segments and buildings. Market profiles for each
segment are presented in the appendix to this volume.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
590
Table 3-9 Average Electric Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, 2015, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/sq.ft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 7.5% 4.08 0.31 42.1
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 7.6% 6.55 0.50 68.1
Cooling RTU 43.8% 3.53 1.55 211.4
Cooling Room AC 5.2% 3.46 0.18 24.6
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 6.2% 3.40 0.21 28.8
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 2.3% 2.02 0.05 6.4
Heating Electric Furnace 3.0% 9.35 0.28 38.3
Heating Electric Room Heat 15.0% 7.24 1.09 148.9
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 6.2% 6.78 0.42 57.4
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 2.3% 4.78 0.11 15.3
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.73 1.73 236.3
Water Heating Water Heater 27.1% 1.76 0.48 65.1
Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.66 0.66 90.2
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.93 0.93 127.2
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.60 1.60 219.1
Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.28 0.28 38.6
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.64 0.64 87.7
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.32 0.32 43.4
Refrigeration Walk-in Refrigerator/Freezer 8.8% 1.96 0.17 23.6
Refrigeration Reach-in Refrigerator /Freezer 12.3% 0.31 0.04 5.3
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 15.6% 1.00 0.16 21.4
Refrigeration Open Display Case 7.7% 9.75 0.76 103.3
Refrigeration lcemaker 29.6% 0.59 0.17 23.7
Refrigeration Vending Machine 20.2% 0.37 0.07 10.1
Food Preparation Oven 26.0% 0.77 0.20 27.5
Food Preparation Fryer 6.5% 1.99 0.13 17.8
Food Preparation Dishwasher 13.2% 1.67 0.22 30.2
Food Preparation Steamer 5.2% 0.78 0.04 5.6
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 10.5% 0.22 0.02 3.1
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.57 0.57 77.6
Office Equipment Laptop 98.8% 0.08 0.08 10.3
Office Equipment Server 86.8% 0.25 0.22 29.9
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.10 0.10 13.7
Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.07 0.07 9.2
Office Equipment POS Terminal 37.8% 0.06 0.02 3.2
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 53.0% 0.23 0.12 16.5
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 12.2% 0.02 0.00 0.3
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 7.5% 0.02 0.00 0.2
Miscellaneous Other Miscellaneous 100.0% 1.22 1.22 166.3
Total 15.70 2,147.7
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
591
Table 3-10 Average Electric Market Profile for the Commercial Sector, 2015, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/sq.ft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 9.0% 3.90 0.35 23.5
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 6.5% 6.52 0.43 28.5
Cooling RTU 43.1% 3.38 1.46 97.8
Cooling Room AC 4.9% 3.38 0.17 11.2
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 6.1% 3.18 0.19 13.0
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 2.4% 1.85 0.04 2.9
Heating Electric Furnace 2.4% 9.12 0.22 14.6
Heating Electric Room Heat 14.1% 7.47 1.05 70.4
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 6.1% 6.71 0.41 27.5
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 2.4% 4.82 0.11 7.6
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.59 1.59 106.3
Water Heating Water Heater 26.3% 1.65 0.43 28.9
Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.61 0.61 41.1
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.97 0.97 65.2
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.50 1.50 100.7
Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.29 0.29 19.4
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.63 0.63 42.4
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.37 0.37 24.5
Refrigeration Walk-in Refrigerator/Freezer 8.8% 1.39 0.12 8.2
Refrigeration Reach-in Refrigerator /Freezer 13.7% 0.28 0.04 2.5
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 15.4% 0.87 0.13 9.0
Refrigeration Open Display Case 8.4% 8.01 0.67 45.1
Refrigeration lcemaker 31.6% 0.51 0.16 10.7
Refrigeration Vending Machine 20.0% 0.34 0.07 4.6
Food Preparation Oven 27.2% 0.67 0.18 12.1
Food Preparation Fryer 5.2% 1.45 0.08 5.1
Food Preparation Dishwasher 15.0% 1.32 0.20 13.2
Food Preparation Steamer 7.5% 0.61 0.05 3.0
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 11.0% 0.17 0.02 1.2
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.53 0.53 35.5
Office Equipment Laptop 98.9% O.Q7 0.07 4.4
Office Equipment Server 89.1% 0.21 0.18 12.3
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.09 0.09 6.3
Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.06 0.06 4.3
Office Equipment POS Terminal 38.9% 0.06 O.Q2 1.6
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 51.6% 0.21 0.11 7.3
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 15.7% 0.02 0.00 0.2
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 11.8% 0.02 0.00 0.1
Miscellaneous Other Miscellaneous 100.0% 1.09 1.09 73.1
Total 14.71 985.1
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
592
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
The total electricity used in 2015 by Avista's industrial customers was 1,355 GWh; 982 GWh (WA) and
373 GWh (ID). Avista billing data and load forecast, NEEA's !FSA, and secondary sources were used to
develop estimates of energy intensity (annual kWh/employee). Using the electricity use and intensity
estimates, we infer the number of employees which is the unit of analysis in LoadMAP for the industrial
sector. These are shown in Table 3-11.
Table 3-11 Industrial Sector Control Totals (2015)
State
Washington
Idaho
Electricity Sales
(GWh)
982
373
Intensity
(Annual kWh/employee)
58,135
41,937
Figure 3-12 shows the distribution of annual electricity consumption and summer peak demand by
end use for all industrial customers. Motors are the largest overall end use for the industrial sector,
accounting for 54% of energy use. Note that this end use includes a wide range of industrial equipment,
such as air compressors and refrigeration compressors, pumps, conveyor motors, and fans. The
process end use accounts for 27% of annual energy use, which includes heating, cooling, refrigeration,
and electro-chemical processes. Lighting is the next highest, followed by cooling, miscellaneous,
heating and ventilation.
Table 3-12 and Table 3-13 show the composite market profile for the industrial sector.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 3-11
593
Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (2015), All Industries, WA
Annual Use by End Use
Miscellaneous Cooling He:;�ng »> Ventilation
� •�+M: 2% ----1 nterior Lighting
4%
Exterior Lighting
2%
Summer Peak Demand ventilation
Miscellaneous Cooling ,,.-Heatin� 2%
4% 0%�
�;;:-------_ Interior Lighting
4%
Exterior Lighting
1%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 3-12
594
Industrial Electricity Use by End Use (2015), All Industries, ID
Annual Use by End Use
Cooling
2%
Winter Peak Demand
Miscellaneous
4% Heating
8% Ventilation / 1%
Interior Lighting
4%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
595
Table 3-12 Average Electric Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, 2015, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/employee) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 8,461 212 3.57
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 9,699 242 4.10
Cooling RTU 11.3% 9,133 1,029 17.38
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 8,319 143 2.41
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 5,549 0 0.00
Heating Electric Furnace 2.1% 17,566 367 6.20
Heating Electric Room Heat 11.3% 16,730 1,890 31.94
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 13,131 226 3.81
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 8,758 0 0.00
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1,233 1,233 20.83
Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 145 145 2.44
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1,781 1,781 30.09
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 486 486 8.21
Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 177 177 2.99
Exterior Lighting HID 100.0% 888 888 15.00
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 263 263 4.44
Motors Pumps 100.0% 8,050 8,050 136.02
Motors Fans & Blowers 100.0% 4,157 4,157 70.25 -
Motors Compressed Air 100.0% 3,415 3,415 57.70
Motors Material Handling 100.0% 14,470 14,470 244.50
Motors Other Motors 100.0% 923 923 15.60
Process Process Heating 100.0% 6,253 6,253 105.66
Process Process Cooling 100.0% 2,051 2,051 34.65
Process Process Refrigeration 100.0% 2,051 2,051 34.65
Process Process Electrochemical 100.0% 4,063 4,063 68.65
Process Process Other 100.0% 1,376 1,376 23.25
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 2,247 2,247 37.96
Total 58,135 982.31
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
596
Table 3-13 Average Electric Market Profile for the Industrial Sector, 2015, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation {kWh) {kWh/employee) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 6,171 154 1.37
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 7,074 177 1.57
Cooling RTU 11.3% 6,662 750 6.67
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 6,068 104 0.93
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 4,047 0 0.00
Heating Electric Furnace 2.1% 12,568 263 2.34
Heating Electric Room Heat 11.3% 11,970 1,353 12.03
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 9,395 161 1.44
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 6,266 0 0.00
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 891 891 7.93
Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 104 104 0.93
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1,285 1,285 11.43
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 350 350 3.12
Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 128 128 1.14
Exterior Lighting HID 100.0% 640 640 5.70
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 190 190 1.69
Motors Pumps 100.0% 5,807 5,807 51.67
Motors Fans & Blowers 100.0% 2,999 2,999 26.68
Motors Compressed Air 100.0% 2,463 2,463 21.92
Motors Material Handling 100.0% 10,438 10,438 92.87
Motors Other Motors 100.0% 666 666 5.93
Process Process Heating 100.0% 4,511 4,511 40.13
Process Process Cooling 100.0% 1,479 1,479 13.16
Process Process Refrigeration 100.0% 1,479 1,479 13.16
Process Process Electrochemical 100.0% 2,931 2,931 26.07
Process Process Other 100.0% 993 993 8.83
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 1,621 1,621 14.42
Total 41,937 373.11
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
597
4
BASELINE PROJECTION
Prior to developing estimates of energy-efficiency potential, we developed a baseline end-use
projection to quantify what the consumption is likely to be in the future and in absence of any future
conservation programs. The savings from past programs are embedded in the forecast, but the baseline
projection assumes that those past programs cease to exist in the future. Possible savings from future
programs are captured by the potential estimates.
The baseline projection incorporates assumptions about:
• Customer population and economic growth
• Appliance/equipment standards and building codes already mandated (see Chapter 2)
• Forecasts of future electricity prices and other drivers of consumption
• Trends in fuel shares and appliance saturations and assumptions about miscellaneous electricity
growth
Although it aligns closely with it, the baseline projection is not Avista's official load forecast. Rather it
was developed to serve as the metric against which EE potentials are measured. This chapter presents
the baseline projections we developed for this study. Below, we present the baseline projections for
each sector and state, which include projections of annual use in GWh and summer peak demand in
MW. We also present a summary across all sectors.
Please note that the base-year for the study is 2015. Annual energy use and summer peak demand
values for 2015 and half of 2016 reflect actual weather. In future years, energy use and peak demand
reflect normal weather, as defined by Avista. In the figures below, the shift from actual to normal
weather is apparent in the increase in energy use and peak demand in 2017 for the residential and
commercial sectors. This results from the fact that 2015 was cooler than normal.
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
ANNUAL USE
Table 4-1 (WA) and Table 4-2 (ID) present the baseline projection for electricity at the end-use level
for the residential sector as a whole. Overall in Washington, residential use increases from 2,458 GWh
in 2015 to 2,950 GWh in 2037, an increase of20%. Residential use in Idaho increases from 1,161 GWh
in 2015 to 1,417 GWh in 2037, an increase of 22%. This reflects a substantial customer growth forecast
in both states. Figure 4-1 (WA) and Figure 4-3 (ID) display the graphical representation of the baseline
projection.
Figure 4-2 (WA) and Figure 4-4 (ID) present the baseline projection of annual electricity use per
household. Most noticeable is that lighting use decreases throughout the time period as the lighting
standards from EISA come into effect. Heating usage increases over the forecast due to going from
actual weather in 2015 to normal weather in 2017 and for the rest of the forecast.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 4-1
End Use
Cooling
Heating
Water Heating
Interior Lighting
Exterior Lighting
Appliances
Electronics
Miscellaneous
Total
Figure 4-1
3,500
598
Residential Baseline Sales Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington
2015 2018 2019 2022 2027 2037 % Change
('15-'37)
151 131 132 139 150 172 14%
629 755 757 766 783 818 30%
390 394 394 397 401 419 7%
268 246 238 191 144 143 -47%
56 50 48 37 25 23 -58%
560 569 573 585 607 655 17%
231 243 244 252 272 330 43%
174 219 238 303 354 389 123%
2,458 2,605 2,625 2,670 2,735 2,950 20.0%
Residential Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington
3,000
2,500 :2 $ £ 2,000
QJ !,/') :::::,
� 1,500 c: c: <t: 1,000
500
•Cooling
• Heating
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Appliances
• Electronics
• Miscellaneous
Figure 4-2
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Residential Baseline Projection by End Use -Annual Use per Household, Washington
14,000
12,000
:i: 10,000 ::c ? � 8,000
Q) V> ::::> 6,000 iii :, c: c 4,000 -c
2,000
• Cooling
• Heating
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Appliances
• Electronics
• Miscellaneous
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 4-2
End Use
Cooling
Heating
Water Heating
Interior Lighting
Exterior Lighting
Appliances
Electronics
Miscellaneous
Total
Figure 4-3
599
Residential Baseline Sales Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho
2015 2018 2019 2022 2027 2037 % Change
('15-'37}
60 52 53 55 60 69 13%
317 381 383 387 396 413 30%
182 184 184 185 187 196 8%
145 131 126 101 75 74 -49%
32 28 27 21 14 13 -58%
270 275 276 282 293 317 17%
99 105 106 111 121 149 50%
56 88 100 140 167 187 234%
1,161 1,244 1,256 1,283 1,314 1,417 22.1%
Residential Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho
1,600
1,400
1,200
s: 3: 1,000 � OJ "' 800 :::> � ::, c 600 c <I:
400
200
• Cooling
• Heating
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Appliances
• Electronics
• Miscellaneous
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Figure 4-4
12,000
Residential Baseline Sales Projection by End Use - Annual Use per Household, Idaho
10,000
I :r: 8,000 ........ s: ?: �
Q) 6,000 "' :::>
ro ::, c: 4,000 c: <t:
2,000
• Cooling
• Heating
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Appliances
• Electronics
• Miscellaneous
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
600
COMMERCIAL SECTOR BASELINE PROJECTIONS
ANNUAL USE
In Washington, annual electricity use in the commercial sector grows during the overall forecast
horizon, starting at 2,148 GWh in 2015, and increasing to 2,282 in 2037, an increase of 6%. In Idaho,
annual electricity use grows from 985 GWh in 2015 to 1,042 GWh in 2037, also an increase of 6%. The
tables and graphs below present the baseline projection at the end-use level for the commercial sector
as a whole. Usage in lighting is declining throughout the forecast, due largely to the phasing in of codes
and standards such as the EISA 2007 lighting standards. Usage in commercial cooling decreases over
the forecast due to going from actual weather in 2015 to weather-normal in 2017 for the forecast.
Table 4-3 Commercial Baseline Sales Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington
% Change
End Use 2015 2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
('15-'37)
Cooling 381 336 342 359 373 399 5%
Heating 260 320 323 332 336 346 33%
Ventilation 236 233 232 229 221 216 -9%
Water Heating 65 69 71 74 76 78 20%
Interior Lighting 436 440 441 414 400 396 -9%
Exterior Lighting 170 172 173 162 156 154 -10%
Refrigeration 187 185 184 181 174 172 -8%
Food Preparation 84 87 88 91 94 101 21%
Office Equipment 144 151 153 159 165 175 21%
Miscellaneous 183 125 113 128 164 245 34%
Total 2,148 2,118 2,121 2,128 2,158 2,282 6.2%
Table 4-4 Commercial Baseline Sales Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho
% Change
End Use 2015 2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
('15-'37)
Cooling 174 153 156 163 169 181 4%
Heating 121 149 150 154 156 160 33%
Ventilation 106 105 105 104 100 99 -7%
Water Heating 29 31 31 33 34 35 20%
Interior Lighting 207 209 210 196 190 188 -9%
Exterior Lighting 86 88 89 84 81 80 -7%
Refrigeration 80 79 79 78 75 74 -7%
Food Preparation 35 36 36 37 39 41 19%
Office Equipment 64 67 68 71 74 78 22%
Miscellaneous 82 56 48 52 69 106 29%
Total 985 973 973 972 986 1,042 5.8%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
601
Figure 4-5 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Washington
2,500
• Cooling
2,000 • Heating
Ventilation ·
.J::. � 1,500 • Water Heating
QI Interior Lighting "' :::)
iS • Exterior Lighting :::, 1,000 c: c • Refrigeration <
• Food Preparation
500 • Office Equipment
• Miscellaneous
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Figure 4-6 Commercial Baseline Projection by End Use, Idaho
1,200
1,000
.J::. 800 3 \!)
QI "' 600 :::)
iS :::, c c: 400 <
200 -
• Cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Refrigeration
• Food Preparation
• Office Equipment
• Miscellaneous
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
602
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR BASELINE PROJECTIONS
ANNUAL USE
Annual industrial use increases almost 11 % through the forecast horizon, driven primarily by
expected customer growth. The tables and graphs below present the projection at the end-use level.
Overall in Washington, industrial annual electricity use increases from 982 GWh in 2015 to 1,092 GWh
in 2037. In Idaho, annual electricity use increases from 373 GWh in 2015 to 402 GWh in 2037.
Table 4-5 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington
End Use 2015 2018 2019 2022 2027 2037 % Change
('15-'37)
Cooling 27 27 27 28 29 30 10%
Heating 42 41 42 43 44 46 11%
Ventilation 21 20 20 20 20 21 1%
Interior Lighting 41 39 39 39 39 39 -3%
Exterior Lighting 22 20 20 20 19 19 -17%
Process 267 263 267 275 282 297 11%
Motors 524 517 525 541 SSS 583 11%
Miscellaneous 38 41 43 47 51 56 48%
Total 982 969 984 1,014 1,039 1,092 11.1%
Table 4-6 Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Idaho
End Use 2015 2018 2019 2022 2027 2037 % Change
('15-'37)
Cooling 11 11 11 11 11 12 12%
Heating 16 16 16 17 17 18 13%
Ventilation 8 8 8 8 8 8 2%
Interior Lighting 15 16 16 15 15 15 -1%
Exterior Lighting 9 8 8 8 7 7 -16%
Process 101 106 106 107 109 115 13%
Motors 199 207 208 209 214 225 13%
Miscellaneous 14 16 17 18 20 22 50%
Total 373 389 389 392 402 422 13.1%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 4-7
1,200
1,000
s: 800 3 \!)
QJ "' 600 :::::,
"iii ::, c: c: 400 �
200
603
Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh), Washington
• Cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Motors
• Process
• Miscellaneous
2015
Figure 4-8
450
400
350
2 300 3 £ 250 QJ "' :::::,
<ti 200 ::, c: c 150 �
100
50
2015
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Industrial Baseline Projection by End Use (GWh}, Idaho
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
•Cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Process
• Motors
• Miscellaneous
604
SUMMARY OF BASELINE PROJECTIONS ACROSS SECTORS AND STATES
ANNUAi USE
Table 4- 7 and Figure 4-9 provide a summary of the baseline projection for annual use by sector for the
entire Avista service territory. Overall, the projection shows strong growth in electricity use, driven
primarily by customer growth forecasts.
Table 4-7
Sector
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Total
Baseline Projection Summary {GWh}, WA and ID Combined
2015 2018 2019 2022 2027 2037 % Change
('15-'37)
3,620 3,850 3,882 3,953 4,049 4,367 21%
3,133 3,091 3,093 3,100 3,144 3,324 6%
1,355 1,358 1,373 1,406 1,441 1,514 12%
8,108 8,299 8,348 8,458 8,634 9,205 14%
Figure 4-9
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000 s: 3 6,000 (.!)
Q> "' 5,000 :::::>
'iti ::::, 4,000 c c: � 3,000
2,000
1,000
Baseline Projection Summary (GWh), WA and ID Combined
• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
605
5
CONSERVATION POTENTIAL
This section presents the conservation potential for Avista. This includes every measure that is
considered in the measure list, regardless of delivery mechanism (program implementation, NEEA
initiatives, or momentum savings).
We present the annual energy savings in GWh and aMW, as well as the summer peak demand savings
in MW, for selected years. Year-by-year savings for annual energy and peak demand are available in
the LoadMAP model, which was provided to Avista at the conclusion of the study.
This section begins a summary of annual energy savings across all three sectors. Then we provide
details for each sector. Please note that all savings are provided at the customer meter.
OVERALL SUMMARY OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL
SUMMARY OF ANNUAL ENERGY SAVINGS
Table 5-1 (WA) and Table 5-2 (ID) summarize the EE savings in terms of annual energy use for all
measures for three levels of potential relative to the baseline projection. Figure 5-l(WA) and Figure 5-
2 (ID) displays the two levels of potential by year. Figure 5-3 (WA) and Figure 5-4 (ID) display the EE
projections.
• Technical potential reflects the adoption of all conservation measures regardless of cost­
effectiveness. For Washington, first-year savings are 133 GWh, or 2.3% of the baseline
projection. Cumulative savings in 2037 are 1,373 GWh, or 21.7% of the baseline. For Idaho, first­
year savings are 57 GWh, or 2.2% of the baseline projection. Cumulative savings in 2037 are 564
GWh, or 19.6% of the baseline.
• Achievable technical potential modifies technical potential by accounting for customer adoption
constraints. In Washington, first-year savings are 63 GWh, or 1.1 % of the baseline. In 2037,
cumulative achievable technical savings reach 1,078 GWh, or 17.1% of the baseline projection.
This results in average annual savings of 0.9% of the baseline each year. Achievable technical
potential reflects 79% of technical potential throughout the forecast horizon. For Idaho, first
year savings are 25 GWh or 1.0% of the baseline and by 2037 cumulative achievable technical
savings reach 438 GWh, or 15.2% of the baseline. This results in average annual savings of 0.8%
of the baseline each year. Achievable technical potential reflects 78% of technical potential
throughout the forecast horizon.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
606
Table 5-1 Summary of EE Potential (Annual Energy, GWh), Washington
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Baseline projection (GWh) 5,692 5,730 5,811 5,932 6,323
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Achievable Technical Potential 63 133 336 664 1,078
Technical Potential 133 265 550 976 1,373
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Achievable Technical Potential 7.2 15.2 38.4 75.8 123.1
Technical Potential 15.2 30.2 62.8 111.4 156.7
Savings as% of Baseline
Achievable Technical Potential 1.1% 2.3% 5.8% 11.2% 17.1%
Technical Potential 2.3% 4.6% 9.5% 16.5% 21.7%
Table 5-2 Summary of EE Potential (Annual Energy, GWh), Idaho
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Baseline projection (GWh) 2,606 2,618 2,647 2,702 2,882
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Achievable Technical Potential 25 54 132 263 438
Technical Potential 57 112 222 395 564
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Achievable Technical Potential 2.9 6.1 15.1 30.0 50.0
Technical Potential 6.5 12.8 25.3 45.1 64.4
Savings as % of Baseline
Achievable Technical Potential 1.0% 2.1% 5.0% 9.7% 15.2%
Technical Potential 2.2% 4.3% 8.4% 14.6% 19.6%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 5-1
25%
20%
Q) .E <ii 15% ...,
ti) co ..
607
Summary of EE Potential as% of Baseline Projection (Annual Energy), Washington
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
5%
0%
2018 2019 2022 2027 - 2037
-
Figure 5-2
25%
20%
Summary of EE Potential as% of Baseline Projection (Annual Energy], Idaho
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
Q) .E e1 15%
ti) co � ...,
-� 10% > ti) c.l')
5%
0%
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
608
Figure 5-3
7,000
6,000
s: j 3 5,000
\.:)
c .2 4,000 Q. E :::, W') c: 3,000 4 0 u > tll) ... Q) 2,000 c ......
1,000
Baseline Projection and EE Forecast Summary (Annual Energy, GWh), Washington
-Baseline Projection
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
- -t
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Figure 5-4
3,500 �
3,000
s: 3 2,500
\.:)
c .g c. 2,000
E ii; c: 0 u > [:O Q) c ......
500
Baseline Projection and EE Forecast Summary {Annual Energy, GWh), Idaho
-Baseline Projection
Achievable Technical Potential
L__:_ Technical Potent-ia_i
___.
1,000
1,500
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
609
SUMMARY OF CONSERVATION POTENTIAL BY SECTOR
Table 5-3 and Figure 5-5 summarize the range of electric achievable technical potential by sector, both
states combined. The residential and commercial sectors contribute the most savings, but by 2037 the
commercial sector potential begins to approach that of residential due to large lost opportunity
lighting equipment and controls measures.
Table 5-3 Achievable Technical Conservation Potential by Sector (Annual Use), WA and ID
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Residential 44 94 225 448 725
Commercial 33 70 180 352 622
Industrial 11 23 63 127 170
Total 88 187 468 927 1,516
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Residential 5.1 10.7 25.7 51.2 82.7
Commercial 3.7 8.0 20.6 40.2 71.0
Industrial 1.3 2.6 7.2 14.5 19.4
Total 10.0 21.3 53.S 105.8 173.1
Figure 5-5
1,600
Achievable Technical Conservation Potential by Sector (Annual Energy, GWh)
1,400
s: 3: � 1,200
800
600
400
200
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
• Industrial
• Commercial
• Residential
RESIDENTIAL CONSERVATION POTENTIAL
Table 5-4 (WA) and Table 5-5 (ID) present estimates for measure-level conservation potential for the
residential sector in terms of annual energy savings. Figure 5-6 (WA) and Figure 5- 7 (ID) display the
two levels of potential by year. For Washington, achievable technical potential in the first year, 2018 is
29 GWh, or 1.1 % of the baseline projection. By 203 7, cumulative achievable technical savings are 487
GWh, or 16.5% of the baseline projection. At this level, it represents over 79% of technical potential.
For Idaho, first year achievable technical savings are 16 GWh or 1.3% of the baseline and by 203 7
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
610
cumulative achievable technical savings reach 238 GWh, or 16.8% of the baseline. Achievable technical
potential is 79% of technical potential in 2 037.
Table 5-4 Residential Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), Washington
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Baseline projection (GWh) 2,605 2,625 2,670 2,735 2,950
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Achievable Technical Potential 29 61 149 300 487
Technical Potential 64 128 257 463 618
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Achievable Technical Potential 3.3 6.9 17.0 34.2 55.6
Technical Potential 7.3 14.6 29.4 52.8 70.5
Savings as % of Baseline
Achievable Technical Potential 1.1% 2.3% 5.6% 11.0% 16.5%
Technical Potential 2.4% 4.9% 9.6% 16.9% 20.9%
Table 5-5 Residential Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), Idaho
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Baseline projection (GWh) 1,244 1,256 1,283 1,314 1,417
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Achievable Technical Potential 16 33 76 149 238
Technical Potential 34 67 126 225 302
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Achievable Technical Potential 1.8 3.7 8.7 17.0 27.2
Technical Potential 3.9 7.6 14.4 25.7 34.5
Savings as % of Baseline
Achievable Technical Potential 1.3% 2.6% 5.9% 11.3% 16.8%
Technical Potential 2.8% 5.3% 9.8% 17.1% 21.3%
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 5-6
Washington
25%
20%
611
Residential Conservation Savings as a% of the Baseline Projection (Annual Energy),
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
..
(lj c � 15% � co �
5%
0%
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
..
-·
Figure 5-7
Idaho
25%
20%
(lj c � 15% � co �
"' -� 1()% > � <I")
5%
0%
Residential Conservation Savings as a% of the Baseline Projection {Annual Energy),
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Below, we present the top residential measures from the perspective of annual energy use. Table 5-6
identifies the top 20 residential measures from the perspective of annual energy savings in 2019 for
Washington. The top three measures include interior general service screw-in lighting, infiltration
control, and lighting occupancy sensors. The lighting measure is a result of purchases of LED lamps.
Note that achievable technical savings do not screen for cost effectiveness and some measures are
expected to be screened out during the !RP process.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
612
Table 5-6 Residential Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, MWh), Washington
2019 Cumulative % of Rank Residential Measure Energy Savings Total (MWh)
1 Interior Lighting - General Service Lighting (LED) 6,734 11.1%
2 Building Shell - Infiltration Control 4,613 7.6%
3 Interior Lighting - Occupancy Sensors 4,443 7.3%
4 Windows - High Efficiency/ENERGY STAR 3,618 5.9%
5 Windows - Install Reflective Film 3,185 5.2%
6 Insulation - Wall Cavity Installation 3,064 5.0%
7 Interior Lighting - Exempted Lighting (LED) 2,891 4.8%
8 Ducting - Repair and Sealing 2,777 4.6%
9 Ductless Mini Split Heat Pump (Zonal) 2,410 4.0%
10 Insulation - Radiant Barrier 2,146 3.5%
11 Furnace - Conversion to Air-Source Heat Pump 2,047 3.4%
12 Thermostat - Wi-Fi/lnteractive 1,873 3.1%
13 Freezer - Decommisioning and Recycling 1,755 2.9%
14 Exterior Lighting - Screw-In (LED) 1,678 2.8%
15 Insulation - Ceiling Installation 1,649 2.7%
16 Interior Lighting - General Service CFLs 1,489 2.4%
17 Insulation - Ducting 1,264 2.1%
18 Ductless Mini Split Heat Pump (Ducted Forced Air) 1,152 1.9%
19 Doors - Storm and Thermal 879 1.4%
20 Insulation - Wall Sheathing 848 1.4%
Total 50,514 83.1%
Total cumulative savings in 2019 60,820 100.0%
Figure 5-8 presents forecasts of cumulative energy savings for Washington. Heating, water heating,
and lighting account for a substantial portion of the savings throughout the forecast horizon.
Weatherization, ductless heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, and LED lighting account for a large
portion of potential over the 20-year study period.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 5-8
600
v, Q,O c: ·5 500 (ti Vl ro .!::! c: 400 s: u Q) f- .E:1 ..Q 300 (ti > .� s: u <( 200 '+- 0 c: .Q ..., (ti 100 u .Q �
613
Residential Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Washington
•Cooling
• Heating
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Appliances
• Electronics
• Miscellaneous
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Table 5- 7 shows the top residential measures from the perspective of annual energy use in Idaho in
2019. The top three measures are the same as Washington and include interior general service screw­
in lighting, infiltration control, and lighting occupancy sensors. Note that achievable technical savings
do not screen for cost effectiveness and some measures are expected to be screened out during the !RP
process.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
614
Table 5-7 Residential Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, MWh), Idaho
2019 Cumulative % of Rank Residential Measure Energy Savings Total (MWh)
1 Interior Lighting - General Service Lighting (LED) 4,173 12.7%
2 Interior Lighting - Occupancy Sensors 2,483 7.6%
3 Building Shell - Infiltration Control 2,316 7.1%
4 Interior Lighting - General Service CFLs 1,910 5.8%
5 Windows - High Efficiency/ENERGY STAR 1,810 5.5%
6 Windows - Install Reflective Film 1,543 4.7%
7 Insulation - Wall Cavity Installation 1,533 4.7%
8 Interior Lighting - Exempted Lighting 1,392 4.2%
9 Ductless Mini Split Heat Pump (Zonal) 1,387 4.2%
10 Ducting - Repair and Sealing 1,223 3.7%
11 Exterior Lighting - Screw-In 1,147 3.5%
12 Insulation - Radiant Barrier 1,049 3.2%
13 Furnace - Conversion to Air-Source Heat Pump 984 3.0%
14 Thermostat - Wi-Fi/lnteractive 921 2.8%
15 Insulation - Ceiling Installation 835 2.5%
16 Freezer - Decommisioning and Recycling 793 2.4%
17 Insulation - Ducting 552 1.7%
18 Ductless Mini Split Heat Pump (Ducted Forced Air) 536 1.6%
19 Interior Lighting - Exempted CFLs 521 1.6%
20 Doors - Storm and Thermal 449 1.4%
Total 27,556 84.1%
Total cumulative savings in 2019 32,769 100.0%
Figure 5-9 presents forecasts of cumulative energy savings for Idaho. Results are similar to Washington
where the majority of the savings come from heating and lighting measures and later in the forecast
from water heating.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 5-9
250
615
Residential Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Idaho
C1l .!::::! 200 c: s: u Q) � ..!=! ..0 150 C1l VI > QJ;) .9:! c: s: ·5 u C1l <!: Vl
b 100
c: .Q - C1l u so ..Q ";;j:
•Cooling
• Heating
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Appliances
• Electronics
• Miscellaneous
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
616
COMMERCIAL CONSERVATION POTENTIAL
Table 5-8 (WA) and Table 5-9 (ID) present estimates for the two levels of conservation potential for
the commercial sector from the perspective of annual energy savings and average MW.
Table 5-8 Commercial Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), WA
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Baseline projection (GWh) 2,118 2,121 2,128 2,158 2,282
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Achievable Technical Potential 26 56 142 273 468
Technical Potential 58 115 234 398 604
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Achievable Technical Potential 3.0 6.4 16.2 31.1 53.4
Technical Potential 6.7 13.1 26.7 45.5 68.9
Savings as % of Baseline
Achievable Technical Potential 1.2% 2.6% 6.7% 12.6% 20.5%
Technical Potential 2.8% 5.4% 11.0% 18.5% 26.5%
Table 5-9 Commercial Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), Idaho
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Baseline projection (GWh) 973 973 972 986 1,042
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Achievable Technical Potential 6 14 38 79 154
Technical Potential 18 36 74 127 207
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Achievable Technical Potential 0.7 1.7 4.4 9.0 17.6
Technical Potential 2.1 4.1 8.4 14.5 23.6
Savings as % of Baseline
Achievable Technical Potential 0.7% 1.5% 4.0% 8.0% 14.8%
Technical Potential 1.9% 3.7% 7.6% 12.9% 19.8%
Figure 5-10 (WA) and Figure 5-11 (ID) display the two levels of potential by year. For Washington, the
first year of the projection, achievable technical potential is 26 GWh, or 1.2% of the baseline projection.
By 2037, achievable technical savings are 468 GWh, or 20.5% of the baseline projection. Throughout
the forecast horizon, achievable technical potential represents about 77% of technical potential. For
Idaho, first year achievable technical savings are 6 GWh or 0.7% of the baseline and by 2037
cumulative achievable technical savings reach 154 GWh, or 14.8% of the baseline. Throughout the
forecast horizon, achievable technical potential represents about 74% of technical potential.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 5-10
30%
25%
.E 20%
Qj ..., "' co � 15%
617
Commercial Conservation Savings (Energy), Washington
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
5%
0%
2018 2019 2022 2027 - 2037 -
Figure 5-11
25%
Commercial Conservation Savings (Energy), Idaho
20"/o
(l) .s 5! 15%
"' co � ..., .s° 10"/o > "' <.I")
5%
0%
2018
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
2019 2022 2027 2037
Below, we present the top commercial measures from the perspective of annual energy use.
Table 5-10 (WA) and Table 5-11 (ID) identify the top 20 commercial-sector measures from the
perspective of annual energy savings in 2019. The top measures in Washington are
retrocommissioning, variable speed ventilation systems, and interior LED screw-in lighting. In Idaho,
the top measures are retrocommissioning, variable speed ventilation systems, and exterior LED
lighting. Significant lighting savings have already been achieved in recent years, therefore lowering the
savings opportunities in the short-term. In later years, as linear fluorescent fixtures reach their end of
useful life, linear LEDs become the top measure.
Figure 5-12 (WA) and Figure 5-13 (ID) present forecasts of cumulative energy savings by end use.
Lighting savings from interior and exterior applications account for a substantial portion of the savings
throughout the forecast horizon. Cooling savings are also substantial throughout the forecast.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
618
Table 5-10 Commercial Top Measures in 2019 {Annual Energy, MWh}, Washington
2019 Cumulative % of Rank Commercial Measure Energy Savings Total (MWh)
1 Retrocommissioning 6,881 12.3%
2 Ventilation - Variable Speed Control 4,070 7.3%
3 Interior Lighting - Screw-In (LED) 3,955 7.1%
4 Insulation - Ceiling 2,552 4.6%
5 Office Equipment - Desktop Computer 2,498 4.5%
6 Exterior Lighting - Screw-In 2,288 4.1%
7 Refrigeration - Variable Speed Compressor 2,104 3.8%
8 Strategic Energy Management 1,860 3.3%
9 Refrigeration - Floating Head Pressure 1,651 3.0%
10 Interior Lighting - Linear Lighting 1,625 2.9%
11 Chiller - Chilled Water Variable-Flow System 1,588 2.8%
12 Exterior Lighting - Bi-Level Fixture 1,395 2.5%
13 Refrigeration - Demand Defrost 1,317 2.4%
14 HVAC - Economizer 1,295 2.3%
15 Commissioning 1,280 2.3%
16 Exterior Lighting - Area Lighting 1,138 2.0%
17 Ductless Mini Split Heat Pump 1,119 2.0%
18 Exterior Lighting - Photovoltaic Installation 1,035 1.9%
19 Cooling - Water-Cooled Chiller 1,018 1.8%
20 Water-Cooled Chiller - Condenser Water Reset 1,017 1.8%
Total 41,684 74.8%
Total cumulative savings in 2019 55,744 100.0%
Figure 5-12
500
v, � 450 ·;;: ro 400 Vl
ro .!::::! 350 c: s: u Cl) 300 r- � .0 250 ro > -� s: 200 u <i:: ...... 150 0 c: .Q 100 +-' ro u ..Q so <!
Commercial Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Washington
• Cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Refrigeration
• Food Preparation
• Office Equipment
• Miscellaneous
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
619
Table 5-11 Commercial Top Measures in 2019 {Annual Energy, MWh), Idaho
2019 Cumulative %of Rank Commercial Measure Energy Savings Total (MWh)
1 Retrocommissioning 3,128 21.6%
2 Ventilation - Variable Speed Control 1,784 12.3%
3 Exterior Lighting - Screw-In (LED) 1,163 8.0%
4 Office Equipment - Desktop Computer 1,130 7.8%
5 Insulation - Ceiling 1,065 7.4%
6 Strategic Energy Management 903 6.2%
7 Interior Lighting - Screw-In 881 6.1%
8 Commissioning 581 4.0%
9 Exterior Lighting - Area Lighting 567 3.9%
10 Cooling - Water-Cooled Chiller 420 2.9%
11 Interior Lighting - Linear Lighting 337 2.3%
12 Interior Lighting - Interior Lighting - Networked Fixture 326 2.2% Controls
13 Exterior Lighting - Linear Lighting 300 2.1%
14 Ventilation - Ventilation 240 1.7%
15 Interior Lighting - Interior Lighting - Embedded Fixture 233 1.6% Controls
16 Ventilation - Demand Controlled 217 1.5%
17 Cooling - Air-Cooled Chiller 152 1.0%
18 Ventilation - ECM on VAV Boxes 146 1.0%
19 Interior Lighting - High-Bay Fixtures 141 1.0%
20 Cooling - RTU 109 0.8%
Total 13,822 95.5%
Total cumulative savings in 2019 14,480 100.0%
Figure 5-13
180
160 ro .!:! c 140 s: u Q) I- 120 .Se! ..c ro � 100 > -� c s: ·;;: u ro 80 <X: Vl ._ 0 c 60 .Q - ro 40 u ..Q � 20
Commercial Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh}, Idaho
• Cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
• Water Heating
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Refrigeration
• Food Preparation
• Office Equipment
• Miscellaneous
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
620
INDUSTRIAL CONSERVATION POTENTIAL
Table 5-12 (WA) and Table 5-13 (ID) present potential estimates at the measure level for the industrial
sector, from the perspective of annual energy savings.
Table 5-12 Industrial Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), WA
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Baseline projection (GWh) 969 984 1,014 1,039 1,092
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Achievable Technical Potential 8 17 46 92 124
Technical Potential 11 22 59 115 151
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Achievable Technical Potential 0.9 1.9 5.2 10.5 14.1
Technical Potential 1.3 2.6 6.7 13.1 17.2
Savings as % of Baseline
Achievable Technical Potential 0.8% 1.7% 4.5% 8.9% 11.3%
Technical Potential 1.1% 2.3% 5.8% 11.1% 13.8%
Table 5-13 Industrial Conservation Potential (Annual Energy), Idaho
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
Baseline projection (GWh} 389 389 392 402 422
Cumulative Savings (GWh)
Achievable Technical Potential 3 6 17 35 46
Technical Potential 4 9 22 43 56
Cumulative Savings (aMW)
Achievable Technical Potential 0.4 0.7 2.0 4.0 5.2
Technical Potential 0.5 1.0 2.5 4.9 6.4
Savings as % of Baseline
Achievable Technical Potential 0.8% 1.7% 4.4% 8.6% 10.9%
Technical Potential 1.1% 2.2% 5.6% 10.7% 13.3%
Figure 5-14 (WA) and Figure 5-15 (ID) display the two levels of potential by year. For Washington,
achievable technical savings in the first year, 2018, are 8 GWh, or 0.8% of the baseline projection. In
2037, savings reach 124 GWh, or 11.3% of the baseline projection. For Idaho, achievable technical
savings in the first year, 2018, are 3 GWh, or 0.8% of the baseline projection. In 2037, savings reach 46
GWh, or 10.9% of the baseline projection.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Figure 5-14
Washington
16%
14%
12%
621
Industrial Conservation Potential as a % of the Baseline Projection (Annual Energy),
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
Q) .s 10"/o a:; "' (1) a) � 8%
"' OD
-� 6%
(1) 1/'l
4%
2%
0%
2018 2019 2022 2027 2037
r, ..
Figure 5-15
Idaho
14%
Industrial Conservation Potential as a% of the Baseline Projection (Annual Energy),
12%
10"/o
Q) .s a:; � 8%
a)
Q
4%
2%
0%
2018
Achievable Technical Potential
Technical Potential
2019 2022 2027 2037
Below, we present the top industrial measures from the perspective of annual energy use.
Table 5-14 and Table 5-15 identify the top 20 industrial measures from the perspective of annual
energy savings in 2017. For both states, the top measure is an upgrade on compressed air equipment.
The measure with the second highest savings is the implementation of a leak management program.
Retrocommissioning rounds out the top three in both states.
Figure 5-16 (WA) and Figure 5-17 (ID) present forecasts of energy savings by end use as a percent of
total annual savings and cumulative savings. Motor-related measures account for a substantial portion
of the savings throughout the forecast horizon. The share of savings by end use remains fairly similar
throughout the forecast period.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 5-14
622
Industrial Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, GWh), Washington
2019 Cumulative % of Rank Industrial Measure Energy Savings Total (MWh)
1 Compressed Air - Equipment Upgrade 2,682 16.2%
2 Compressed Air - Leak Management Program 1,355 8.2%
3 Retrocommissioning 1,229 7.4%
4 Fan System - Variable Speed Drive 812 4.9%
5 Material Handling - Variable Speed Drive 658 4.0%
6 Compressed Air - System Controls 607 3.7%
7 Destratification Fans (HVLS) 510 3.1%
8 Refrigeration - System Optimization 494 3.0%
9 Fan System - Flow Optimization 467 2.8%
10 Motors - Synchronous Belts 428 2.6%
11 Pumping System - Equipment Upgrade 403 2.4%
12 HVAC - Economizer 392 2.4%
13 Switch from Belt Drive to Direct Drive 333 2.0%
14 Refrigeration - Floating Head Pressure 308 1.9%
15 Pumping System - System Optimization 289 1.7%
16 Compressed Air - Variable Speed Drive 289 1.7%
17 Transformer - High Efficiency 283 1.7%
18 Kraft: Efficient Agitator 265 1.6%
19 Pumping System - Variable Speed Drive 261 1.6%
20 Exterior Lighting - Enhanced Controls 251 1.5%
Total 12,316 74.3%
Total cumulative savings in 2019 16,568 100.0%
Figure 5-16
140
ro 120 .!:::! c: s: u 100 Q) I- 2 .c ro v, 80 > Q.I) .!!:! c: s: ·::: u ro <i:: Vl 60 ..... 0 c: .Q 40 - ro u ..Q � 20
Industrial Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Cumulative GWh), Washington
•cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Motors
• Process
• Miscellaneous
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 5-15
623
Industrial Top Measures in 2019 (Annual Energy, GWh), Idaho
2019 Cumulative %of Rank Industrial Measure Energy Savings Total (MWh)
1 Compressed Air - Equipment Upgrade 1,070 16.7%
2 Compressed Air - Leak Management Program 540 8.4%
3 Retrocommissioning 480 7.5%
4 Fan System - Variable Speed Drive 318 5.0%
5 Material Handling - Variable Speed Drive 261 4.1%
6 Compressed Air - System Controls 242 3.8%
7 Destratification Fans (HVLS) 205 3.2%
8 Refrigeration - System Optimization 197 3.1%
9 Fan System - Flow Optimization 185 2.9%
10 Motors - Synchronous Belts 171 2.7%
11 Pumping System - Equipment Upgrade 159 2.5%
12 HVAC - Economizer 158 2.5%
13 Switch from Belt Drive to Direct Drive 134 2.1%
14 Refrigeration - Floating Head Pressure 123 1.9%
15 Pumping System - System Optimization 118 1.8%
16 Compressed Air - Variable Speed Drive 113 1.8%
17 Transformer - High Efficiency 112 1.7%
18 Pumping System - Variable Speed Drive 104 1.6%
19 Exterior Lighting - Enhanced Controls 99 1.5%
20 Insulation - Ceiling 90 1.4%
Total 4,878 75.9%
Total cumulative savings in 2019 6,425 100.0%
Figure 5-17
so
45 ro .!::! 40 c s: u Q) 35 f- � ..c 30 ro v, > QO .!!:! c 25 ..c '> u ro <t: Vl ..,_ 20 0 c .Q 15 - ro u 10 ..Q <i: 5
Industrial Achievable Technical Savings Forecast (Annual Energy, GWh), Idaho
•cooling
• Heating
Ventilation
Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Motors
• Process
• Miscellaneous
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
6
625
DEMAND RESPONSE POTENTIAL
In 2014, AEG and The Brattle Group performed an assessment of demand response potential for
Avista's commercial and industrial (C&I) sectors. As part of this conservation potential assessment,
Avista asked AEG to update the DR analysis for C&l sectors in Washington and Idaho.
The updated analysis provides demand response potential and cost estimates for the 20-year planning
horizon of 2018-2037 to inform the development of Avista's 2017 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It
primarily seeks to develop reliable estimates of the magnitude, timing, and costs of DR resources likely
available to Avista over the 20-year planning horizon. The analysis focuses on resources assumed
achievable during the planning horizon, recognizing known market dynamics that may hinder
resource acquisition. DR analysis results will also be incorporated into subsequent DR planning and
program development efforts.
This section describes our analysis approach and the data sources used to develop potential and cost
estimates. The following three steps broadly outline our analysis approach:
1. Segment C&I customers for DR analysis and develop market characteristics (customer count
and coincident peak demand values) by segment for the base year and planning period.
2. Identify and describe the relevant DR programs and develop assumptions on key program
parameters for potential and cost analysis.
3. Assess achievable potential by DR program for the 2018-2037 planning period and estimate
program budgets and levelized costs.
MARKET CHARACTERIZATION
The first step in the DR analysis was to segment C&I customers and develop characteristics for each
segment. The two relevant characteristics for DR potential analysis are the number of eligible
customers in each market segment and their coincident peak demand values.
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Similar to the 2014 analysis, we used Avista's rate schedules as the basis for C&I customer
segmentation: by state and customer class. Table 6-1 summarizes the market segmentation we
developed for this study.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 6-1 Market Segmentation
626
Market Dimensions Segmentation Variable Description
1
2
State
Customer Class
Idaho
Washington
By rate schedule:
General Service: Rate Schedule 11
Large General Service: Rate Schedule 21
Extra Large General Service: Rate Schedule 2511
We excluded Avista's two largest industrial customers from our analysis because they are so large and
unique that a segment-based modeling approach is not appropriate for them. To accurately estimate
demand reduction potential for these customers, we would need to develop a detailed understanding
of their industrial processes and associated possibilities for load reduction. We would also need to
develop specific DR potential estimates for each customer. Avista may wish to engage with these large
customers directly to gauge interest in participating in DR programs.
CUSTOMER COUNT BY SEGMENT
Once the customer segments were defined, we developed customer count and coincident peak demand
values for the three C&I segments. We developed these estimates separately by state for Washington
and Idaho. We considered 2015 as the base year for the study, since this is the most recent year with a
full 12 months of available customer data. This also coincides with the base year used for the CPA
study. The forecast years are 2018 to 2037.
Avista provided the number of customers by rate schedules for Washington and Idaho over the 2015-
2021 timeframe. We used this data to calculate the average annual growth rate. We then applied these
same average annual growth rates to develop customer projections over the rest of the study
timeframe, 2022-2037. The average annual growth rate for C&I sector as a whole is 1.1 %. Table 6-2
below shows the number of customers by state for the base year and selected future years.
Table 6-2 Baseline C&l Customer Forecast by State and Customer Class
Customer Class 2015 2018 2019 2020 2027 2037
Washington
General Service 21,818 22,827 23,102 23,387 25,469 28,772
Large General Service 1,941 1,840 1,840 1,840 1,840 1,840
Extra Large General Service 20 20 20 20 20 20
Total C&I 23,779 24,687 24,962 25,247 27,330 30,632
Idaho
General Service 15,595 16,155 16,339 16,528 17,925 20,130
Large General Service 1,130 1,123 1,123 1,123 1,123 1,123
Extra Large General Service 9 10 10 10 10 10
Total C&I 16,735 17,288 17,472 17,661 19,058 21,263
11 Excluding the two largest Schedule 25 and Schedule 2SP customers.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
627
FORECASTS OF WINTER PEAK
System Peak Demand
Avista provided us with the 2015 system winter peak value and forecast for 2016 through 2037. Table
6-3 shows the system peak for the base year and selected futures years. The "weather sensitive" peak
is defined by Avista as the overall system peak demand minus the demand for Avista's largest
industrial customers. The system peak is expected to increase by 9.5% by 2037, an average annual
increase of 0.4%.
Table 6-3 Baseline System Winter Peak Forecast (MW ®Generator) 12
Peak Demand
Overall System Peak
Weather-sensitive Peak
2015
1,696
1,562
2018
1,710
1,576
2019
1,717
1,583
2020
1,724
1,590
2030
1,795
1,660
2037
1,845
1,711
Coincident Peak Demand by Segment
To develop the coincident peak forecast for each segment, we started with electricity sales by customer
class. Avista provided electricity sales by rate schedule for the years 2015 through 2021. For the
remaining years of the forecast, 2022 through 2037, we projected electricity sales using the average
annual growth rate over the 2015 through 2021 timeframe.
Next, we relied on electricity sales and coincident peak demand values for 2010 provided in the 2010
load research study conducted by Avista to calculate the load factors for General Service, Large General
Service, and Extra Large General Service customers for Washington and Idaho. We then applied the
load factors to the 2015 electricity sales data to derive coincident peak demand estimates for the three
segments. Table 6-4 below shows the load factors and coincident peak values for the base year and
selected future years.
Table 6-4 Load Factors and Baseline Coincident Peak Forecast by Segment (MW ®Meter)
Customer Class Load
Factor 2015 2018 2019 2020 2027 2037
78 79 80 80 85 89
195 192 193 193 194 197
98 92 94 95 103 117
371 364 366 368 382 406
61 61 62 63 68 77
106 97 97 96 94 91
47 55 55 55 54 53
213 213 213 214 216 220
Washington
General Service 0.80
Large General Service 0.82
Extra Large General Service 0.79
Total C&I
Idaho
General Service 0.64
Large General Service 0.75
Extra Large General Service 0.79
Total C&I
EQUIPMENT END USE SATURATION
Another key component of market characterization for DR analysis is electric space heating and water
heating saturation data. This is required to further segment the market and identify eligible customers
for direct control of electric space heating and water heating equipment. The relevant space heating
equipment for DR analysis are central furnaces and heat pumps. We obtained saturation data from the
CPA study, which had updated figures from the 2014 NEEA Commercial Building Stock Assessment
12 The system peak forecast shown here is the net native load forecast from data provided by Avista, excluding the two largest
industrial loads.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
628
(CBSA). Table 6-5 and Table 6-6 below show saturation estimates by state and customer class. We
assumed water heating and electric space heating saturation values remain constant over the analysis
timeframe.
Table 6-5 Electric Space Heating and Water Heating Saturation by Customer Class, Washington
End Use Saturation by Equipment Type General Service Large General Service
Space Heating Saturation for Washington
Central Furnace
Air-Source Heat Pump
Geothermal Heat Pump
Total (Applicable for DR Analysis)
Water Heating Saturation for Washington
All equipment
1.8%
8.8%
3.6%
14.2%
40.1%
5.6%
5.2%
2.2%
12.9%
23.7%
Table 6-6 Electric Space Heating and Water Heating Saturation by Customer Class, Idaho
End Use Saturation by Equipment Type General Service Large General Service
Space Heating Saturation for Idaho
Central Furnace 1.7% 5.3%
Air-Source Heat Pump 9.0% 4.5%
Geothermal Heat Pump 3.6% 1.8%
Total (Applicable for DR Analysis) 14.2% 11.6%
Water Heating Saturation for Idaho
All equipment 43.7% 24.5%
DR PROGRAM DESCRIPTIONS
This section identifies and describes the relevant DR programs for Avista. The programs are the same
as the 2014 study and this section highlights the key features for each program and presents
assumptions on program parameters that are required for potential and cost calculations. Program
features describe characteristics such as targeted customer segment, typical end uses controlled,
available hours, event notification and duration, type of response, incentive levels to participants,
metering requirements and mechanisms for program delivery. In addition to these characteristics, this
section presents participation, impact, and cost assumptions for each program. These assumptions
serve as a foundation for potential and cost analysis results presented later in this section.
RELEVANT DR PROGRAMS
Table 6-7 presents the DR programs included in our analysis. These programs are the same as the 2014
study. The DR programs can be classified into two types: non-pricing programs and pricing programs.
• Non-pricing programs represent firm, dispatchable resources that Avista could count on to fulfill
system resource requirements when needed. The two types of non-pricing programs included in
our analysis are Direct Load Control (DLC) and Firm Curtailment (FC) programs. DLC programs
target space heating and water heating equipment usage, as described below.
• Dynamic pricing options, on the other hand, represent non-firm resources that may not be
available for dispatch when needed. The pricing option considered to be relevant for Avista is
Critical Peak Pricing (CPP).
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 6-7
Category
629
Relevant DR Programs for Avista
Program Applicable Customer Class
Direct Load Control
Non-pricing
Firm Curtailment
General Service (GS)
Large General Service (LGS)
Large General Service (LGS)
Extra Large General Service (XLGS)
Pricing Critical Peak Pricing
General Service (GS)
Large General Service (LGS)
Extra Large General Service (XLGS)
DIRECT LOAD CONTROL PROGRAM
The DLC program targets Avista's General Service and Large General Service customers in Washington
and Idaho. This program directly controls electric space heating load in winter and water heating load
throughout the year for these customers through a load control switch or a programmable thermostat
for space heating. The two types of space heating equipment that can be controlled are central electric
furnaces and heat pumps, which would be cycled on and off during the events. Water heaters would
be completely turned off during the DR event period. Water heaters of all sizes are eligible for control.
Table 6-8 below describes key DLC program attributes.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 6-8
630
Direct Load Control Program Features
Program
Attributes
Targeted
Segment
Resource
Availability
Event
Notification
Maximum
Annual Event
Hours
Description
General Service and Large General Service
customers in WA and ID with eligible
electric space heating and water heating
equipment
Space heating is controlled during the
winter months (October-April). Most events
are likely to be called during the months of
December-February when demand is high.
Water heating is controlled throughout the
year.
Day ahead event notification via email,
phone, or SMS.
60 hours
Comments
Only heat pump and central furnaces are
eligible for DLC. The combined saturation is
14.2% for GS and 12.9% for LGS in
Washington. For Idaho, the saturation is
14.2% in GS and 11.6% in LGS.
Electric water heating saturation is 40.1% in
GS and 23. 7% in LGS for Washington. For
Idaho, the saturation is 43.7% in GS, and
24.5% in LGS.
October through April are the winter
months for Avista. System peak usually
occurs in December and demand is
significantly high during January and
February. Therefore, most events are likely
to be called during December to February.
Avista peaks happen during the early
morning hours so participants need to be
provided with day ahead notification.
Based on Duke Energy Carolinas DLC
program.
Event Duration
Based on Duke Energy Carolinas and Florida
Event duration can range from 4 to 6 hours. Power and Light's DLC program
information.
Type of
Response
Delivery
Mechanism
Participant
Incentive
Metering
Requirements
Space heaters can be cycled or completely
turned off during the event period or the
temperature can be set using a
Programmable Communicating Thermostat.
Water heaters are completely shut off
during the event period.
Avista is responsible for delivering the
program.
$60 annual payment for space heating
control during the winter; $50 annual
payment for water heating control
throughout the year.
Customers can participate with existing
meters.
Most DLC programs in the industry are
delivered directly by the utility.
Incentive payments to DLC customers are
typically in the $20-$100 range. Our
assumption is at the midpoint of this range
for space heating control. For water heating
control, we assumed $4/month incentive
for control all year round.
Interval meters are not required to
participate.
Direct load Control Program Assumptions
The key parameters required to estimate potential for a DLC program are participation rate, per
participant load reduction and program costs. We have described below our assumptions of these
parameters.
Participation Rate
The DLC program is offered to General Service and Large General Service customers with eligible space
heating and water heating equipment. We used information from the most successful programs
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
631
identified in the FERC survey to develop these assumptions. Table 6-9 below shows participation rates
assumptions.
Table 6-9 DLC Participation Rates(% of eligible customers)
Customer Class
Participation Rates
Unit
% of eligible
customers
2018
1.5%
2019
4.5%
2020
9.0%
2021 2022-37
13.5% 15.0%
DLC Load Reduction
Table 6-10 presents the per participant load reduction for space heating and water heating control and
explains the basis for these assumptions.
Table 6-10 Per Participant Impact Assumptions for Direct Load Control Program
End Use and Value
Customer Class (kW)
Space Heating Control
General Service 1.50
Large General Service 15.0
Water Heating Control
General Service 0.47
Large General Service 10.0
Basis for Assumption
Values are assumed to be 25% higher than residential impacts from
Puget Sound Energy (PSE) residential DLC pilot.
Assumed to be 15% of the class average coincident demand of 100 kW.
Values are assumed to be 25% higher than residential impacts from
Puget Sound Energy (PSE) residential DLC pilot.
Assumed to be 10% of the class average coincident demand of 100 kW.
Program Costs
Table 6-11 presents itemized cost assumptions for the DLC program and the basis for the assumptions.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
632
Table 6-11 DLC Program Cost Assumptions
Assumption Unit Value Basis for Assumption
We assumed that 1 FTE (@$150,000 annual cost) is
Program Development $/program $150,000 required to develop the DLC program for both WA and ID
Cost and the cost is equally split between the two customer
classes for each state.
Program Administration We assumed 1 FTE annual cost for DLC program
$/year $150,000 administration for WA and ID, split equally between the Cost two customer classes.
Annual Marketing and $/new Standard assumption for residential customers is $50. For
Recruitment Costs $100 small commercial customers, we assumed costs to be 25%
(GS) participant higher than the costs for residential.
Annual Marketing and $/new We assumed 33% higher costs for Large General Service
Recruitment Costs $133 customers than comparable costs for General Service
(Large GS) participant Customers.
Load control switch capital cost= $100.
Cost of Equip+ Install Average of 1.25 control units per customer.
Implies capital cost per participant= $125. for Space Heating $/new $375 Switch installation cost= $125. Control participant
(GS) License and permit-related costs = $125 per participant
(25% higher than equivalent cost for residential
customers at $100).
Cost of Equip + Install
for Space Heating $/new $550 Control switch capital and installation cost= $200.
Control participant License and permit-related costs= $150 per participant.
(Large GS)
Load control switch capital cost= $100.
Cost of Equip+ Install Switch installation cost= $125.
for Water Heating $/new One water heating control unit per participant.
Control participant $350 Implies cost per participant is $225.
(GS) License and permit-related costs= $125 per participant
(25% higher than equivalent cost for residential
customers at $100).
Cost of Equip+ Install Load control switch capital and installation cost= $150
each. for Water Heating $/new $450 License and permit-related costs= $150 per participant Control participant
(Large GS) (50% higher than equivalent cost for residential
customers at $100).
Annual O&M Cost $/participant $15 Annual O&M cost= 10% of the control equipment cost. (GS) per year
Annual O&M Cost $/participant $20 Annual O&M cost= 10% of the control equipment cost. (Large GS) per year
Per participant annual $/participant Incentive payments to DLC customers are typically in the
incentive for Space $60 $20-$100 range. Assumed values are at the midpoint of
Heating (GS) per year this range.
Per participant annual $1.5/kW monthly incentive payment. For an average 15 incentive for Space $/participant $160 kW of reduction per participant, this translates into $160 Heating Control (Large per year total incentive payment over seven winter months. GS)
Per participant annual $/ pa rtici pant $4/month incentive payment to participants. Water incentive for Water $50
Heating control per year heaters are controlled throughout the year.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
633
Other Assumptions
Table 6-12 presents itemized cost assumptions for the DLC program and the basis for the assumptions.
Table 6-12 DLC Program Lifetime and Capacity Derating Factor
Assumption
Program Life
Capacity derating factor
Unit
Years
Factor
Value
8
0.8
Basis for Assumption
The DLC program life is tied to the life of the switch. We
assumed the control switch life to be 8 years.
Capacity derating values generally range from 0.6 to 1.0.
We assumed the de-rating factor to be at the midpoint of
this range, with a value of 0.8.
FIRM CURTAILMENT PROGRAM
The Firm Curtailment program targets Large General Service and Extra Large General Service
customers in Avista's service territory. Under this program, participating customers agree to reduce
demand by a specific amount or curtail their consumption to a pre-specified level. In return, they
receive a fixed incentive payment in the form of capacity credits or reservation payments (typically
expressed as $/kW-month or $/kW-year). Customers are paid to be on-call even though actual load
curtailments may not occur. The amount of capacity payment typically varies with the firm reliability­
commitment level. In addition to the fixed capacity payment, participants receive a payment for energy
reduction. Because the program includes a contractual agreement for a specified level of load
reduction, enrolled loads represent a firm resource and can be counted toward installed capacity
(ICAP) requirements. Penalties may be assessed for under-performance or non-performance.
Table 6-13 below describes the key attributes for a Firm Curtailment program.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 6-13
Program
Attributes
Targeted
Segment
Resource
Availability
Event
Notification
Maximum
Annual Event
Hours
634
Firm Curtailment Program Features
Description
Large General Service and Extra Large
General Service customers
Program is available year-round
During the winter months of October to
April, events can be called anytime
between 6 AM to lOAM and 4PM to 8 PM
on weekdays.
During the summer months of May to
September, events can be called anytime
between 12 noon to 7 PM on weekdays.
Day ahead notification via email, phone or
SMS.
60 hours
Comments
C&I customers with a minimum of load of
100 kW are suitable for participation.
Firm curtailment programs are available all
year round.
Events can be called to address dual peak
during the winter season.
Events can be called to address the late
afternoon and early evening peak during
summer.
Typically, events are called either a day in
advance or 30 minutes prior to the event.
Participants prefer day-ahead notification.
Typical specification in the industry.
Event Duration
Type of
Response
Delivery
Mechanism
Delivery Cost
Participant
Incentive
Metering and
Communication
Requirements
Events can range from 1-8 hours.
Non-essential load is curtailed; participants
can also shift their usage to backup
generators.
Participants can either respond manually or
have automated response strategies.
The program is delivered through a third
party.
Delivery cost consists of two components:
1) $/kW-year capacity payment to the third­
party at $70/kW-year
2) Energy payment to the third party at
$110/MWh;
Internal program administration cost for
Avista is assumed to be approximately 10%
of the capacity delivery cost. This increases
the overall per kW delivery cost to $77 /kW­
year.
The third party is responsible for payment
of incentives to participants, so incentive
cost is part of the delivery cost.
Preferable to have 5-minute interval data
but 15-minute or hourly data are sufficient.
Participants should be able to receive and
confirm curtailment requests in real time.
Typical specification in the industry.
Program implementation experience.
Most utilities deliver Firm Curtailment
programs through third parties.
Based on third party program
implementation experience, capacity
delivery cost is in the $60-80/kW range and
energy delivery cost is in the $75-150/MWh
range. We are using the midpoint of the
ranges. We also assumed additional utility
administrative costs to account program
management, regulatory filings, internal
book keeping, etc. These costs are
estimated to be 10% of the capacity
delivery cost.
Typical specification for this type of
program.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
635
Firm Curtailment Program Assumptions
They key parameters required to estimate potential for a Firm Curtailment program are participation
rate, per participant load reduction and program costs.
Program Participation Rate
Table 6-14 below shows Firm Curtailment participation assumptions. Based on industry experience,
we estimate the program will ramp up to a steady-state participation level over three years, which is
the typical contract duration for third-party delivered programs.
As noted in the table above, customers may use back-up generation to achieve load reduction under
this program. We estimate that roughly one fourth of the load reduction achieved through this option
would be provided by customers with backup generation.
Table 6-14 Firm Curtailment Program Participation Rates[% of eligible customers)
Customer Class
Participation Rates
Unit
% of eligible
customers
2018
7.4%
2019
14.9%
2020
22.3%
2021
22.3%
2022-37
22.3%
Per Participant Load Reduction
Table 6-15 below presents the assumed per participant load reduction for the Firm Curtailment
program and explains the basis for this assumption. Customers respond by curtailing a variety of end
uses customized for their circumstances. Some customers also use back-up generators to achieve the
load shed. Therefore, the estimates we present here may overlap with peak load reduction estimates
Avista is developing in a separate study.
Table 6-15 Per Participant Load Reduction Assumption for Firm Curtailment Program
Assumption
Per-participant load
reduction for Large
General Service & Extra
Large General Service
Unit
% of
enrolled
load
Value
21%
Basis for Assumption
Weighted average impact estimates from aggregator DR
programs administered by CA utilities (Ref: 2012
Statewide Load Impact Evaluation of California
Aggregator Demand Response Programs Volume 1: Ex­
post and Ex-Ante Load Impacts; Christensen Associates
Energy Consulting; April 1, 2013). We combined these
estimates with data from the 2012 FERC National Survey
database of DR programs.
Program Costs
Table 6-16 presents cost assumptions for the Firm Curtailment program. We developed these cost
assumptions in consultation with industry experts. The delivery cost shown in the table represents
A vista's all-in payment to the contracted third party for delivering a fixed amount of load reduction. It
consists of two components: a capacity component and an energy component. The third party is
responsible for all program costs including incentive payments to participants. Typically, 50 percent
of the delivery cost is passed through as incentive payment to participants. Other than the third-party
delivery costs, we assumed that Avista would incur additional internal administration costs for
deploying this program.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 6-16
636
Firm Curtailment Program Cost Assumptions
Assumption
Program Delivery Cost
(administered by third
party)
Payment for energy
delivery
Unit
$/kW-year
$/kWh
Value
$77
$0.11
Basis for Assumption
Based on third-party program implementation
experience, delivery cost is expected to be in the range of
$60-80/kW and we assumed the midpoint. This is
inclusive of all costs to run the program, including
equipment purchase and installation costs, maintenance
costs, network communications costs, sales and
marketing costs, and payments to the customer.
Avista would also incur administrative costs for program
management, regulatory filings, internal book keeping,
etc. These costs were estimated to be 10% of the capacity
delivery costs.
Based on third-party program implementation
experience, energy dispatch prices typically fall in the
$75-150/MWh range. Our assumed price level is at the
midpoint of this range.
Other Assumptions
The other key parameters needed for potential and cost analysis are program life and capacity derating
factor. Table 6-17 below describes these assumptions for the Firm Curtailment program.
Table6-17 Firm Curtailment Program Lifetime and Capacity Derating Factor
Assumption
Program Life
Capacity derating factor
CRITICAL PEAK PRICING
Unit
Years
Factor
Value
3
0.8
Basis for Assumption
Typical contract duration for third-party delivered Firm
Curtailment programs.
Capacity derating values generally range from 0.6 to 1.0.
We assumed the de-rating factor to be at the midpoint of
this range, with a value 0.8.
The Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) option involves significantly higher prices during relatively short
critical peak periods on event days only to encourage customers to reduce their usage. CPP is usually
offered in conjunction with a time-of-use rate, which implies at least three time periods: critical peak,
on peak and off peak. The customer incentive is a more heavily discounted rate during off-peak hours
throughout the year (relative a standard TOU rate). Event days are dispatched on relatively short
notice (day ahead or day of) typically for a limited number of days during the year. Over time, event­
trigger criteria become well-established so that customers can expect events based on hot weather or
other factors. Events can also be called during times of system contingencies or emergencies. The CPP
rate included here is based on a 6:1 peak to off-peak price ratio assumption. We assumed that this rate
is offered to all three C&I classes.
We considered two types of offerings for CPP. With an opt-in rate, participants voluntarily enroll in the
rate. With an opt-out rate, all customers are placed on the time-varying rate, but they may opt-out and
select another rate if they so desire. Table 6-18 describes the features of a CPP rate program.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 6-18
Program
Attributes
Targeted
Segment
Type of Offer
Resource
Availability
Event
Notification
637
Critical Peak Pricing Program Features
Description
General Service and Large General Service
customers.
Two types of offers are possible:
1. CPP is offered as a voluntary rate to all
customer classes with opt-in provision.
2. CPP is offered as a default rate to all
customer classes with opt-out
provision.
CPP events can be called any time during
the year, based on system requirements.
Day ahead event notification via email,
phone, or SMS.
Comments
Customers of all sizes are eligible to
participate in a CPP program.
Participants can be notified on either a day­
ahead or day-of basis, but day-ahead is
preferred.
Maximum
Number of CPP
Events in a
Year
Maximum
Annual Event
Hours
Event Duration Typical event duration is 4 hours.
Avista can choose to call more events
during winter and fewer or none during
summer, as needed.
Industry experience.
Industry experience.
10 to 15
60 hours
Type of
Response
Delivery
Mechanism
Participant
Incentive
Metering
Requirements
Load curtailment and shifting to backup
generators.
Enabling technology can enhance response.
For GS and LGS, enabling technology is
assumed to PCT.
For Extra Large General Service, enabling
technology is assumed to be Auto-DR.
Avista is responsible for delivering the
program.
The critical peak to off-peak price
differential induces participant to reduce
usage during critical peak periods. The off­
peak rate is lower than the participant's
standard rate.
AMI is required for metering and
settlement.
Critical Peak Pricing Program Assumptions
The key parameters required to estimate potential for CPP are participation rate, per participant load
reduction and costs for deploying these rates. Below we described our assumptions for these
parameters.
Program Participation Rate
We have defined participation rates for two pricing options, assuming independent offers of CPP rates:
voluntary, opt-in CPP rates to all customers and default CPP rates with opt-out.
Table 6-19 presents assumed participation rates for C&I customers in independent CPP rate offerings.
We assumed that participation ramps up over a five-year timeframe to reach a steady-state level. For
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�----------------------------- --- ---------------------------------------
638
the opt-in offer, ramp up to steady-state participation follows an "S-shaped" diffusion curve, in which
the participation growth rate accelerates over the first half of the five-year period and then slows over
the second half. A similar but inverse S-shaped diffusion curve is used to account for the rate at which
customers opt out of the default rate.
Participation in CPP rates requires advanced metering infrastructure (AMI). Avista's Extra Large
General Service customers have sophisticated telemetry and communications infrastructure in place
and may be offered CPP rates immediately. For the other two customer classes, CPP is not yet available.
Therefore, we assumed that CPP rates can be offered to General Service and Large General Service
customers at a later date, when AMI rollout is completed.
The participation assumptions are based on Brattle's extensive database on pricing program and pilot
experiences.
Table 6-19 Critical Peak Pricing Program Participation Rates(% of eligible customers)
Customer Class Start Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yrs. 5-19 Comments Yr.
Opt-in Standalone
General Service & participation estimates
Large General Service 2021 1.8% 5.4% 10.8% 16.2% 18.0% represent average
enrollment rates in
Extra Large General 2018 1.8% 5.4% 10.8% 16.2% 18.0% independent rate Service offerings across full
Opt-out scale deployments and
General Service & market research
Large General Service 2021 100% 96.0% 85.7% 65.8% 63.0% studies.
(Source: Brattle's
Extra Large General 2018 100% 96.0% 85.7% 65.8% 63.0% Pricing Program
Service Database)
Percentage of Customers with Enabling Technology in CPP Rates
Studies have shown that impacts from dynamic pricing programs vary, according to whether
customers have enabling technology to automate their response. For General Service and Large
General Service customers, the enabling technology is a programmable communicating thermostat
(PCT). For Extra Large General Service customers, the enabling technology is Automated Demand
Response (Auto-DR), implemented through energy management and control systems. Table 6-20
shows the percentage of CPP participants equipped with enabling technology for the opt-in and opt­
out cases.
Table 6-20 Percentage of CPP Participants with Enabling Technology(% of total participants)
Option
Opt-in CPP
Opt-out CPP
Yr. 1
25%
2%
Yr. 2
25%
4%
Yr. 3
25%
6%
Yr. 4
25%
8%
Yrs. 5-19
25%
10%
Per Participant Load Reduction
Table 6-21 below presents assumed per participant load reduction in CPP rates by customer class. The
assumed impact values are based on a 6:1 critical peak to off-peak price ratio. Estimated load
reductions with enabling technology are significantly higher than those achieved without enabling
technology use.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 6-21
639
Per Participant Load Reduction in CPP Rates by Customer Class
Customer Class
GS without enabling technology
GS with enabling technology
Large GS without enabling technology
Large GS with enabling technology
Extra Large GS without enabling technology
Extra Large GS with enabling technology
Value
0.6%
12.5%
7.3%
11.7%
8.4%
15.6%
Comments
These impacts assume 6:1 critical
peak to off-peak price ratio.
Source: Brattle's Database on
Pricing Programs.
Program Costs
The major cost components for implementation of time varying rates are the fixed annual costs for
administering the rates and providing billing analysis. For an opt-out offer, additional call center staff
may be required during the initial program years to handle the relatively large volume of calls from
customers defaulted to these rates.
Table 6-22 below shows cost assumptions for deployment of opt-in and opt-out CPP rates. The cost
items for the CPP program are similar to those for TOU rates. A major portion of CPP program costs is
enabling technology purchase and installation for a fraction of the total participants.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
640
Table 6-22 CPP Program Cost Assumptions for Opt-in and Opt-out Offers
Item Unit Value Comments
Costs Applicable to Opt-in and Opt-out
Program Development
Cost
Annual Program
Administration Cost
Billing Analyst Cost
Enabling Technology
Cost
$/program
$/year
$/year
$/GS
participant
$/LGS
participant
$/kW load
reduction for
XLGS
participant
$170,000
$170,000
$105,000
$375
$550
$200
One FTE at $170,000 annual cost for program
development.
One FTE at $170,000 annual cost to administer the
CPP rates.
One billing analyst at $105,000 in the call center to
provide customer service.
We assumed per participant PCT capital and
installation cost is the same as DLC.
We assumed per participant PCT capital and
installation cost is the same as DLC.
Based on Auto-DR enablement costs from a CA
utility.
Billing system upgrade $ $7.5 million Avista provided this estimate.
Additional Costs Applicable to Opt-in
$/new GS
participant $100 Same as DLC program marketing cost.
Per Customer Annual
Marketing/Recruitment
Cost
$/new LGS
participant
$/new XLGS
participant
$133
$250
For LGS customers, costs are assumed to be a third
higher than costs for GS customers.
For XLGS customers, costs are assumed to be
approximately double the costs for LGS customers.
We assumed that 3 additional call center staff at
$85,000 each annual cost to handle customer calls
for an opt-out rate.
For opt-out CPP rates, these costs are assumed to
be one-tenth of the costs for opt-in CPP rates.
$25
$15
$10
$255,000 two program
years
$/new GS
participant
$/new LGS
participant
$/new XLGS
participant
Additional Costs Applicable to Opt-out
$/yr. for first
Per Customer Annual
Ma rketi ng/Recru itment
Cost
Additional call center
staff
Other Assumptions
The other key parameters needed for potential and cost analysis are program life and capacity derating
factor. Table 6-23 below describes these assumptions for the pricing options.
Table 6-23 Program Lifetime and Capacity Derating Factor for Pricing Options
Assumption Unit Value Basis for Assumption
Program Life
Capacity derating factor
Years
Factor
20
0.5
Program life is tied to the life of the interval meter.
Load reductions from pricing options are less firm than
load reductions from non-pricing options. Therefore, we
assumed capacity derating factor to be lower at 0.5.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
641
OTHER (ROSS-CUTTING ASSUMPTIONS
In addition to the above program-specific assumptions, there are three that affect all programs:
• Discount rate. We used a nominal discount rate of 5.21 % to calculate the net present value (NPV)
of costs over the useful life of each DR program. All cost results are shown in nominal dollars. We
assumed 1.86% inflation rate for escalating costs.
• Line losses. Avista provided a line loss factor of 6.5% to convert estimated demand savings at the
customer meter level to demand savings at the generator level. In the next section, we report our
analysis results at the generator level.
• Snapback. In this context, snapback refers to the amount of energy savings that resu It from DR
programs. We have assumed in this analysis that the amount of kWh savings from DR programs is
negligible since most of the reduction during events is typically shifted to other times of day, either
before or after the event.
DR POTENTIAL AND COST ESTIMATES
This section presents analysis results on demand savings and cost estimates for DR programs. We
developed savings estimates in two ways:
• We conducted an independent assessment of DR options which considered each option as a
standalone offering. As such, this approach does not account for participation overlaps among DR
options targeted at the same customer segment and therefore savings and cost results for
individual DR options are not addictive. The standalone analysis results help provide a
comparative assessment of individual DR options and costs and are useful for selection of DR
options in a program portfolio.
• At the very end of this section, we present high-level results in 2037 after considering integrated
effects that occur if more than one DR option is offered to Avista customers.
All potential results presented in this section represent capacity savings in terms of equivalent
generation capacity after derating factors have been applied.
POTENTIAL RESULTS
Figure 6-1 and Table 6-24 show demand savings from individual DR options for selected years of the
analysis. These savings represent combined savings from DR options in Avista's Washington and Idaho
service territories.
Key findings include:
• The firm curtailment option has the highest savings potential and approximately 2.9%-3.0% of
estimated C&l peak demand from 2 020 onward. We assumed that Avista offers this option to Large
General Service and Extra Large General Service customers immediately and participation ramps
up to a steady state within 3 years. Therefore, potential remains almost steady from that time
onward. The savings for this program are slightly higher than the previous study's estimate of 2. 7 -
2.8%, due to the increase in the number of customers in the territory.
• An opt-out CPP offer has second highest savings potential at approximately 2.2% of C&l peak
demand from 2025 onward. We assumed that Avista could offer this as a default rate to all
customer classes after AMI deployment is completed. Participation ramps up over a five-year
timeframe and reaches a steady state by 2025. Only Extra Large General Service customers are
assumed to have the necessary metering infrastructure in place and could be offered a CPP rate
immediately. The increase in the number of customers also accounts for the increase in savings for
this program from the previous study, up from 2%.
• DLC for General Service and Large General Service customers provides the third highest savings
potential at approximately 0.6%of C&I peak demand from 2021 onward. This is offered in 2018
and ramps up to steady-state participation levels by 2022. The savings for this program are down
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
642
from 1 % in the previous study, due to the updated equipment saturations as described in Table
6-5 and Table 6-6.
• Savings potential from opt-in CPP are approximately 0.7% of the system peak from 2024.
Figure 6-1 Summary of Potential Analysis for Avista (MW@Generator)
2037 2027
I
2020
I
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6 _I_ 4
2 • 2018 2019
• Direct Load Control • Firm Curtailment • Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing
Table 6-24 Achievable DR Potential by Option for Avista (MW @Generator)
2018 2019 2020 2027 2037
Total System Peak (MW} 1,710 1,717 1,724 1,773 1,845
Weather Sensitive Peak (MW} 1,576 1,583 1,590 1,639 1,711
Estimated C&I Peak (MW} 577 579 581 598 627
Achievable Potential (MW)
Direct Load Control 0.37 1.10 2.22 3.86 4.15
Firm Curtailment 5.84 11.64 17.46 17.68 18.18
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 0.14 0.44 0.88 4.37 4.55
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 6.72 6.55 5.98 13.16 13.64
Achievable Potential (% of C&I Peak)
Direct Load Control 0.06% 0.19% 0.38% 0.65% 0.66%
Firm Curtailment 1.01% 2.01% 3.00% 2.95% 2.90%
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 0.03% 0.08% 0.15% 0.73% 0.73%
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 1.16% 1.13% 1.03% 2.20% 2.18%
Table 6-25 and Table 6-26 show demand savings by individual DR option for the states of Washington
and Idaho separately.
2017 Electric !RP Appendix A
Table 6-25
643
Achievable DR Potential by Option for Washington (MW @Generator)
2018 2019 2020 2027 2037
Total System Peak (MW) 1,710 1,717 1,724 1,773 1,845
Weather Sensitive Peak (MW} 1,576 1,583 1,590 1,639 1,711
Estimated C&I Peak (MW) 364 366 368 382 406
Achievable Potential (MW)
Direct Load Control 0.22 0.66 1.33 2.31 2.47
Firm Curtailment 3.81 7.61 11.46 11.81 12.46
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 0.09 0.28 0.56 2.86 3.04
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 4.22 4.13 3.81 8.68 9.22
Achievable Potential (% of C&I Peak)
Direct Load Control 0.06% 0.18% 0.36% 0.60% 0.61%
Firm Curtailment 1.05% 2.08% 3.12% 3.09% 3.07%
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 0.02% 0.08% 0.15% 0.75% 0.75%
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 1.16% 1.13% 1.03% 2.27% 2.27%
Table 6-26 Achievable DR Potential by Option for Idaho (MW ®Generator)
2018 2019 2020 2027 2037
Total System Peak (MW) 1,710 1,717 1,724 1,773 1,845
Weather Sensitive Peak (MW} 1,576 1,583 1,590 1,639 1,711
Estimated C&I Peak (MW} 213 213 214 216 220
Achievable Potential (MW)
Direct Load Control 0.15 0.44 0.89 1.55 1.67
Firm Curtailment 2.03 4.03 6.01 5.87 5.71
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 0.05 0.16 0.32 1.52 1.51
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 2.50 2.42 2.19 4.48 4.43
Achievable Potential (% of C&I Peak)
Direct Load Control 0.07% 0.21% 0.42% 0.72% 0.76%
Firm Curtailment 0.95% 1.89% 2.81% 2.72% 2.59%
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 0.03% 0.08% 0.15% 0.70% 0.69%
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 1.17% 1.13% 1.02% 2.08% 2.01%
COST RESULTS
Table 6-27 presents total utility costs for deployment of individual DR options over the 2016-2037
timeframe. It also shows the average annual cost and the levelized costs per kW of equivalent
generation capacity over 2016-2037. We show the 2037 savings potential from DR options for
reference purposes.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
644
Table 6-27 DR Program Costs and Potential
2018-2037 2018-2037 2018-2037
DR Option 2037 MW Cumulative Avg. Spend per Levelized Cost Potential Utility Spend Year
(Million $) (Million $) ($/kW-year)
Direct Load Control 4.15 $12.11 $0.61 $183.75
Firm Curtailment 18.18 $40.57 $2.03 $119.71
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 4.55 $23.81 $1.19 $356.57
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 13.64 $24.86 $1.24 $95.00
Key findings include:
• The Firm Curtailment option delivers the highest savings at approximately $118.6/kW-year cost.
The cumulative costs to Avista over a 20-year planning period for realizing 18 MW of savings in
2037 is around $40.5 million. Capacity-based and energy-based payments to the third-party
constitutes the major cost component for this option. In addition, Avista incurs a relatively small
amount of internal administrative costs for managing the third party.
• Opt-out CPP has lowest levelized cost among all the DR options. It delivers 13.6 MW of savings in
2037 at $95/kW-year. We estimate that Avista would need to spend approximately $25 million
over 2018-2037 to deploy a default CPP rate to all customer classes. Enabling technology purchase
and installation costs for enhancing customer response is a large part of CPP deployment costs.
• Opt-in CPP has a cost of $357 /kW-year and is significantly higher than the opt-out CPP option. The
major cost component for an opt-in CPP offer is the annual fixed program administration cost for
administering the rate. This cost is spread over the smaller number of customers who choose to
participate in this rate.
• Direct Load Control provides third highest savings, 4.15 MW in 2037, at a relatively high cost of
$184/kW-year. The significant cost components for DLC program implementation are associated
with purchase and installation of enabling technology and with program marketing and outreach
activities. There are also additional permitting and licensing fees that Avista customers must incur.
Table 6-28 and Table 6-29 present the utility costs for deployment of individual DR options over the
2016-2037 timeframe for Washington and Idaho, respectively.
Table 6-28 DR Program Costs and Potential, Washington
2018-2037 2018-2037 2018-2037
DR Option 2037 MW Cumulative Avg. Spend per Levelized Cost Potential Utility Spend Year
(Million$) (Million$) ($/kW-year)
Direct Load Control 2.48 $6.63 $0.33 $168.46
Firm Curtailment 12.46 $27.21 $1.36 $119.87
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 3.04 $12.18 $0.61 $279.40
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 9.22 $12.73 $0.64 $74.18
2017 Electric I RP Appendix A
Table 6-29
645
DR Program Costs and Potential, Idaho
2018-2037 2018-2037 2018-2037
DR Option 2037 MW Cumulative Avg. Spend per Levelized Cost Potential Utility Spend Year
(Million$) (Million$) ($/kW-year)
Direct Load Control 1.67 $5.48 $0.27 $206.47
Firm Curtailment 5.71 $13.36 $0.67 $119.39
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 1.51 $11.63 $0.58 $503.04
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 4.43 $12.14 $0.61 $135.05
INTEGRATED RESULTS
The above analysis assumes that the programs are offered on a stand-alone basis. That is, only one
program, and not the others, is offered to Avista customers. If Avista offered more than one program,
then the potential for double counting exists. To address this possibility, we created a participation
hierarchy to define the order in which the programs are taken by customers. Then we computed the
savings and costs under this scenario. We assumed the following hierarchy:
1. Direct Load Control
2. Firm Curtailment
3. Opt-in CPP or Opt-out CPP
Table 6-30 shows the potential estimates in 2037, as well as the costs, if more than one program is
offered. The saving sand costs for DLC remain unchanged, since it is the first in the hierarchy. However,
the savings for Firm Curtailment and CPP are slightly lower as are the cumulative and average program
costs. Levelized costs for Firm Curtailment are slightly lower as well, but the levelized cost for CPP are
higher because the program costs are spread across a smaller amount of savings.
Table 6-30 DR Program Costs and Potential - Interactive
2018-2037 2018-2037 2018-2037
DR Option 2037 MW Cumulative Avg. Spend per Levelized Cost Potential Utility Spend Year
(Million $) (Million $) ($/kW-year)
Direct Load Control 4.15 $12.11 $0.61 $183.75
Firm Curtailment 17.77 $40.57 $2.03 $119.71
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 3.57 $23.56 $1.18 $448.72
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 10.58 $24.58 $1.23 $119.72
Table 6-31 and Table 6-32 show the potential cost and savings estimates in 2037 for the interactive
analysis by state.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Table 6-31
646
DR Program Costs and Potential - Interactive, Washington
2018-2037 2018-2037 2018-2037
DR Option 2037 MW Cumulative Avg. Spend per Levelized Cost Potential Utility Spend Year
(Million $) {Million $) ($/kW-year)
Direct Load Control 2.48 $6.63 $0.33 $168.46
Firm Curtailment 12.19 $27.21 $1.36 $119.87
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 2.38 $12.03 $0.60 $352.17
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 713 $12.56 $0.63 $93.51
Table 6-32 DR Program Costs and Potential - Interactive, Idaho
2018-2037 2018-2037 2018-2037
DR Option 2037 MW Cumulative Avg. Spend per Levelized Cost Potential Utility Spend Year
{Million $) (Million$) ($/kW-year)
Direct Load Control 1.67 $5.48 $0.27 $206.47
Firm Curtailment 5.58 $13.36 $0.67 $119.39
Opt-in Critical Peak Pricing 1.20 $11.52 $0.58 $630.07
Opt-out Critical Peak Pricing 3.45 $12.02 $0.60 $169.80
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
647
APPENDIX A
MARKET PROFILES
This appendix presents the market profiles for each sector and segment for Washington, followed by Idaho.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
648
Table A-1 Residential Single Family Electric Market Profile, Washington
UEC Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh)
Cooling Central AC 48.3% 1,525.20 737.19 98.40
Cooling Room AC 15.2% 463.56 70.29 9.38
Cooling Evaporative AC 1.3% 1,100.12 14.32 1.91
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 8.1% 1,597.80 129.49 17.28
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 8.1% 11,611.80 941.03 125.61
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.3% 1,410.60 4.21 0.56
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.3% 5,117.40 15.26 2.04
Heating Electric Furnace 7.3% 15,423.51 1,129.52 150.77
Heating Electric Room Heat 6.3% 13,546.80 855.98 114.26
Water Heating Water Heater(<= SS Gal) 43.0% 3,866.30 1,661.33 221.76
Water Heating Water Heater(> SS Gal) 5.7% 4,065.36 231.47 30.90
Interior Lighting General Service Lighting 100.0% 1,037.41 1,037.41 138.48
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 115.49 115.49 15.42
Interior Lighting Exempted Lighting 100.0% 389.36 389.36 51.97
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 390.50 390.50 52.13
Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 826.64 826.64 110.34
Appliances Second Refrigerator 29.6% 962.88 284.78 38.01
Appliances Freezer 59.2% 659.01 390.10 52.07
Appliances Clothes Washer 96.4% 97.03 93.55 12.49
Appliances Clothes Dryer 38.8% 871.72 338.55 45.19
Appliances Dishwasher 82.1% 441.53 362.64 48.41
Appliances Stove/Oven 67.3% 509.28 342.61 45.73
Appliances Microwave 98.0% 147.14 144.19 19.25
Electronics Personal Computers 81.4% 199.81 162.68 21.71
Electronics Monitor 96.5% 84.25 81.28 10.85
Electronics Laptops 113.3% 52.61 59.59 7.95
Electronics Printer /Fax/Copier 86.5% 67.82 58.66 7.83
Electronics TVs 209.5% 253.00 530.05 70.75
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 203.2% 124.80 253.66 33.86
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.0% 119.92 119.92 16.01
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.3% 4,324.00 12.58 1.68
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.8% 4,044.55 31.29 4.18
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 3.1% 2,526.09 78.17 10.43
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 76.1% 209.73 159.65 21.31
Miscellaneous Well Pump 14.9% 645.15 96.09 12.83
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 744.99 744.99 99.44
Total 12,894.5 1,721.2
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
649
Table A-2 Residential Multifamily Electric Market Profile, Washington
UEC Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh)
Cooling Central AC 16.3% 355.38 57.99 0.71
Cooling Room AC 48.1% 282.13 135.58 1.67
Cooling Evaporative AC 0.9% 292.86 2.66 O.D3
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 4.3% 355.33 15.17 0.19
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 4.3% 1,525.63 65.13 0.80 ---
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 313.70
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 672.35
Heating Electric Furnace 7.7% 2,786.23 213.54 2.63
Heating Electric Room Heat 74.4% 2,447.21 1,821.81 22.40
Water Heating Water Heater(<= 55 Gal) 65.9% 2,205.31 1,453.96 17.88
Water Heating Water Heater(> 55 Gal) 8.7% 2,318.85 202.57 2.49
Interior Lighting General Service Lighting 100.0% 572.65 572.65 7.04
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 43.06 43.06 0.53
Interior Lighting Exempted Lighting 100.0% 33.02 33.02 0.41
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.01 0.01 0.00
Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 715.36 715.36 8.80
Appliances Second Refrigerator 3.0% 833.25 25.29 0.31
Appliances Freezer 47.1% 571.74 269.03 3.31
Appliances Clothes Washer 84.7% 82.99 70.31 0.86
Appliances Clothes Dryer 71.0% 599.33 425.44 5.23
Appliances Dishwasher 72.4% 382.79 277.21 3.41
Appliances Stove/Oven 75.5% 356.68 269.33 3.31
Appliances Microwave 96.0% 127.95 122.81 1.51
Electronics Personal Computers 35.9% 173.75 62.38 0.77
Electronics Monitor 42.5% 73.26 31.17 0.38
Electronics Laptops 50.3% 45.75 23.02 0.28
Electronics Printer /Fax/Copier 50.0% 58.97 29.51 0.36
Electronics TVs 127.0% 268.95 341.49 4.20
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 105.9% 108.52 114.91 1.41
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.0% 104.27 104.27 1.28
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.0% 4,324.00
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 3,517.00
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 2,196.60
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 19.1% 74.65 14.27 0.18
Miscellaneous Well Pump 0.0% 556.00
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 223.75 223.75 2.75
Total 7,736.7 95.1
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Table A-3 Residential Manufactured Home Electric Market Profile, Washington
UEC Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation
(kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh)
Cooling Central AC 31.3% 556.00 174.15 1.38
Cooling Room AC 28.6% 439.25 125.70 0.99
Cooling Evaporative AC 1.7% 354.05 6.16 0.05
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 5.1% 556.00 28.51 0.23
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 5.1% 6,330.00 324.62 2.57
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 489.50
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 2,900.25
Heating Electric Furnace 51.5% 7,693.65 3,960.21 31.30
Heating Electric Room Heat 4.1% 6,757.50 275.67 2.18
Water Heating Water Heater(<= 55 Gal) 63.5% 2,370.29 1,505.43 11.90
Water Heating Water Heater(> 55 Gal) 8.4% 2,492.32 209.74 1.66
Interior Lighting General Service Lighting 100.0% 643.13 643.13 5.08
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 68.13 68.13 0.54
Interior Lighting Exempted Lighting 100.0% 119.65 119.65 0.95
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 142.66 142.66 1.13
Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 679.45 679.45 5.37
Appliances Second Refrigerator 20.7% 791.42 163.67 1.29
Appliances Freezer 61.3% 545.58 334.35 2.64
Appliances Clothes Washer 91.4% 80.02 73.16 0.58
Appliances Clothes Dryer 66.7% 898.03 599.43 4.74
Appliances Dishwasher 71.1% 365.62 259.91 2.05
Appliances Stove/Oven 83.0% 510.08 423.61 3.35
Appliances Microwave 95.3% 121.55 115.85 0.92
Electronics Personal Computers 46.4% 165.06 76.55 0.61
Electronics Monitor 55.0% 69.60 38.25 0.30
Electronics Laptops 80.0% 43.46 34.77 0.27
Electronics Printer /Fax/Copier 59.0% 56.02 33.07 0.26
Electronics TVs 159.1% 272.78 433.89 3.43
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 106.2% 103.10 109.49 0.87
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.0% 99.06 99.06 0.78
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.1% 4,324.00 6.33 0.05
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 3,341.15
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 2,086.77
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 85.3% 158.46 135.13 1.07
Miscellaneous Well Pump 0.0% 428.45
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 405.31 405.31 3.20
Total 11,605.0 91.7
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Table A-4 Residential Low Income Electric Market Profile, Washington
UEC Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation {kWh) {kWh/HH) {GWh)
Cooling Central AC 19.6% 480.40 94.08 6.20
Cooling Room AC 44.3% 345.68 153.18 10.09
Cooling Evaporative AC 1.0% 368.35 3.72 0.24
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 4.6% 483.79 22.11 1.46
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 4.6% 2,412.87 110.25 7.26
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 426.85 0.07 0.00
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 1,075.48 0.18 0.01
Heating Electric Furnace 21.9% 3,673.49 803.75 52.94
Heating Electric Room Heat 53.8% 3,226.50 1,735.28 114.29
Water Heating Water Heater(<= 55 Gal) 64.4% 2,142.41 1,379.61 90.87
Water Heating Water Heater(> 55 Gal) 8.5% 2,252.71 192.21 12.66
Interior Lighting General Service Lighting 100.0% 605.80 605.80 39.90
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 49.59 49.59 3.27
Interior Lighting Exempted Lighting 100.0% 61.59 61.59 4.06
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 35.92 35.92 2.37
Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 679.76 679.76 44.77
Appliances Second Refrigerator 6.2% 791.79 49.45 3.26
Appliances Freezer 49.1% 543.46 266.94 17.58
Appliances Clothes Washer 86.0% 79.03 67.99 4.48
Appliances Clothes Dryer 68.8% 609.68 419.18 27.61
Appliances Dishwasher 72.8% 363.90 265.07 17.46
Appliances Stove/Oven 75.8% 360.04 272.81 17.97
Appliances Microwave 96.0% 121.55 116.73 7.69
Electronics Personal Computers 39.5% 165.06 65.19 4.29
Electronics Monitor 46.8% 69.60 32.57 2.15
Electronics Laptops 56.8% 43.46 24.67 1.62
Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier 53.0% 56.02 29.68 1.95
Electronics TVs 134.8% 254.54 342.99 22.59
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 111.4% 103.10 114.89 7.57
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.0% 99.06 99.06 6.52
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.0% 4,324.00
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 3,341.15 1.46 0.10
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.2% 2,086.77 3.66 0.24
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 28.7% 90.41 25.99 1.71
Miscellaneous Well Pump 0.8% 518.83 4.38 0.29
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 223.36 223.36 14.71
Total 8,353.1 550.2
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Table A-5 Commercial Small Office Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 0.5% 4.73 0.02 0.45
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 0.0% 5.36
Cooling RTU 74.3% 3.91 2.90 54.69
Cooling Room AC 2.7% 4.02 0.11 2.04
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 9.1% 3.91 0.36 6.70
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 9.1% 6.04 0.55 10.35
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 3.6% 2.38 0.08 1.60
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 3.6% 4.59 0.16 3.08
Heating Electric Furnace 1.6% 7.15 0.11 2.17
Heating Electric Room Heat 31.0% 6.81 2.11 39.74
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.37 1.37 25.81
Water Heating Water Heater 46.4% 1.03 0.48 8.99
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.35 0.35 6.64
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.76 1.76 33.18
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.32 0.32 5.94
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.18 0.18 3.41
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.20 0.20 3.75
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.59 0.59 11.06
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 0.0% 2.70
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 1.6% 0.61 0.01 0.18
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 0.5% 0.62 0.00 0.05
Refrigeration Open Display Case 0.5% 3.68 0.02 0.32
Refrigeration lcemaker 0.5% 1.02 0.00 0.09
Refrigeration Vending Machine 0.2% 0.48 0.00 0.02
Food Preparation Oven 2.7% 1.69 0.05 0.87
Food Preparation Fryer 0.0% 2.44
Food Preparation Dishwasher 0.0% 3.36
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 0.0% 0.46
Food Preparation Steamer 0.0% 2.46
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 1.37 1.37 25.74
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.21 0.21 3.97
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.24 0.24 4.54
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.40 0.40 7.57
Office Equipment Printer /Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.19 0.19 3.52
Office Equipment POS Terminal 17.2% 0.11 0.02 0.35
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 22.0% 0.25 0.05 1.03
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 1.06 1.06 19.98
Total 15.3 287.8
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Table A-6 Commercial Large Office Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 15.1% 2.42 0.37 2.30
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 9.3% 2.68 0.25 1.57
Cooling RTU 49.0% 2.95 1.45 9.09
Cooling Room AC 2.6% 3.04 0.08 0.50
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 8.3% 2.95 0.25 1.55 ---
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 8.3% 4.35 0.36 2.28
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 7.2% 1.80 0.13 0.81
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 7.2% 3.45 0.25 1.56
Heating Electric Furnace 1.6% 4.75 0.08 0.47
Heating Electric Room Heat 30.5% 4.53 1.38 8.67
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 2.74 2.74 17.20
Water Heating Water Heater 45.2% 0.91 0.41 2.59
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.55 0.55 3.46
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 2.59 2.59 16.24
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.25 0.25 1.58
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.17 0.17 1.04
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.30 0.30 1.90
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 1.01 1.01 6.34
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 2.0% 1.51 0.03 0.19
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 14.0% 0.34 0.05 0.30
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 4.0% 0.35 0.01 0.09
Refrigeration Open Display Case 4.0% 2.06 0.08 0.52
Refrigeration lcemaker 4.0% 0.57 0.02 0.14
Refrigeration Vending Machine 2.1% 0.27 0.01 0.04
Food Preparation Oven 10.0% 0.71 0.07 0.44
Food Preparation Fryer 1.0% 1.02 0.01 0.06
Food Preparation Dishwasher 12.0% 1.41 0.17 1.06
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 1.0% 0.19 0.00 0.01
Food Preparation Steamer 1.0% 1.03 0.01 0.06
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 1.56 1.56 9.80
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.24 0.24 1.51
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.28 0.28 1.73
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.92 0.92 5.77
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.14 0.14 0.89
Office Equipment POS Terminal 57.6% 0.02 0.01 0.07
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 89.6% 0.23 0.21 1.32
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.93 0.93 5.81
Total 17.4 109.0
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Table A-7 Commercial Restaurant Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation
{kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) {GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 0.3% 3.75 0.01 0.02
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 0.0% 4.14
Cooling RTU 71.5% 4.71 3.36 5.80
Cooling Room AC 5.9% 4.84 0.28 0.49
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 7.4% 4.71 0.35 0.60
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 7.4% 5.60 0.41 0.72
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 4.0% 2.87 0.11 0.20
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 4.0% 3.95 0.16 0.27
Heating Electric Furnace 2.5% 7.94 0.20 0.35
Heating Electric Room Heat 0.2% 7.56 0.02 0.03
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 2.57 2.57 4.44
Water Heating Water Heater 15.1% 9.16 1.39 2.39
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 2.08 2.08 3.59
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 2.24 2.24 3.86
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1.37 1.37 2.36
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.63 0.63 1.09
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.48 0.48 0.83
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 1.68 1.68 2.89
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 74.0% 6.82 5.05 8.70
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 7.0% 3.06 0.21 0.37
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 77.6% 1.57 1.22 2.10
Refrigeration Open Display Case 26.0% 9.31 2.42 4.18
Refrigeration lcemaker 75.9% 2.57 1.95 3.37
Refrigeration Vending Machine 0.0% 1.21
Food Preparation Oven 21.0% 4.66 0.98 1.69
Food Preparation Fryer 82.0% 6.75 5.53 9.54
Food Preparation Dishwasher 52.5% 4.64 2.44 4.20
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 84.0% 0.64 0.53 0.92
Food Preparation Steamer 16.0% 3.40 0.54 0.94
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.36 0.36 0.62
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.08
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.06 0.06 0.11
Office Equipment Server 50.0% 0.43 0.21 0.37
Office Equipment Printer /Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.08 0.08 0.14
Office Equipment POS Terminal 65.0% 0.11 0.07 0.13
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 20.0% 0.62 0.12 0.21
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 2.78 2.78 4.79
Total 42.0 72.4
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Table A-8 Commercial Retail Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.} (GWh}
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 0.8% 3.39 0.03 0.60
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 0.5% 3.84 0.02 0.42
Cooling RTU 58.1% 2.80 1.63 34.97
Cooling Room AC 5.5% 3.06 0.17 3.63 ----- Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 2.1% 2.80 0.06 1.28 -- ---
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 2.1% 4.75 0.10 2.17
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 2.0% 1.71 0.03 0.73
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 2.0% 3.23 0.06 1.39
Heating Electric Furnace 0.9% 5.93 0.06 1.21
Heating Electric Room Heat 11.1% 5.65 0.63 13.44
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.17 1.17 25.14
Water Heating Water Heater 38.2% 0.95 0.36 7.78
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 1.36 1.36 29.17
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.74 1.74 37.41
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1.89 1.89 40.71
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.45 0.45 9.58
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.30 0.30 6.49
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.95 0.95 20.47
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 2.0% 2.42 0.05 1.04
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 1.6% 0.54 0.01 0.19
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 16.3% 0.56 0.09 1.95
Refrigeration Open Display Case 14.0% 3.30 0.46 9.93
Refrigeration lcemaker 7.1% 0.91 0.06 1.40
Refrigeration Vending Machine 22.8% 0.43 0.10 2.10
Food Preparation Oven 4.0% 2.97 0.12 2.56
Food Preparation Fryer 0.0% 4.30
Food Preparation Dishwasher 2.0% 5.92 0.12 2.55
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 1.0% 0.81 0.01 0.17
Food Preparation Steamer 0.0% 4.34
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.26 0.26 5.66
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.87
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.05 0.05 1.00
Office Equipment Server 82.0% 0.15 0.13 2.73
Office Equipment Printer /Copier/Fax 100.0% O.Q3 0.03 0.62
Office Equipment POS Terminal 73.8% 0.08 0.06 1.31
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 40.2% 0.26 0.10 2.23
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.96 0.96 20.71
Total 13.7 293.6
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Table A-9 Commercial Grocery Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 0.5% 5.06 0.03 0.13
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 0.3% 5.72 0.02 0.09
Cooling RTU 75.2% 4.18 3.14 14.46
Cooling Room AC 3.5% 4.29 0.15 0.69
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 3.3% 3.69 0.12 0.56
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 3.3% 3.15 0.10 0.48
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.5% 1.56 0.01 0.04
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.5% 2.02 0.01 0.05
Heating Electric Furnace 9.8% 5.88 0.58 2.65
Heating Electric Room Heat 1.8% 5.60 0.10 0.47
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 2.03 2.03 9.33
Water Heating Water Heater 17.5% 2.13 0.37 1.72
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 1.13 1.13 5.21
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 5.07 5.07 23.33
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 2.84 2.84 13.05
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.58 0.58 2.67
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.63 0.63 2.90
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 1.42 1.42 6.55
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 16.0% 5.02 0.80 3.69
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 83.1% 0.32 0.27 1.23
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 95.6% 3.30 3.16 14.53
Refrigeration Open Display Case 95.6% 19.57 18.72 86.12
Refrigeration lcemaker 66.6% 0.27 0.18 0.83
Refrigeration Vending Machine 36.5% 0.25 0.09 0.43
Food Preparation Oven 11.0% 0.59 0.07 0.30
Food Preparation Fryer 87.0% 0.86 0.74 3.43
Food Preparation Dishwasher 54.9% 1.18 0.65 2.98
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 73.0% 0.16 0.12 0.54
Food Preparation Steamer 20.0% 0.86 0.17 0.80
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.15 0.15 0.69
Office Equipment Laptop 64.0% 0.02 0.01 0.07
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.12
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.09 0.09 0.41
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.02 0.02 0.08
Office Equipment POS Terminal 95.9% 0.06 0.06 0.26
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 34.6% 0.69 0.24 1.09
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 2.89 2.89 13.28
Total 46.8 215.2
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Table A-10 Commercial College Electric Market Profile, Washington -- - EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 27.1% 4.69 1.27 7.41
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 5.0% 6.95 0.35 2.03
Cooling RTU 39.5% 3.04 1.20 7.00
Cooling Room AC 2.9% 3.12 0.09 0.53
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 3.8% 3.03 0.12 0.68
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 3.8% 8.69 0.33 1.94
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.9% 1.85 0.02 0.10
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.9% 6.73 0.06 0.37
Heating Electric Furnace 0.0% 12.25
Heating Electric Room Heat 19.1% 11.66 2.23 12.99
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.97 1.97 11.48
Water Heating Water Heater 15.1% 2.69 0.40 2.36
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.17 0.17 0.97
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.50 1.50 8.72
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.37 0.37 2.18
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.31 0.31 1.82
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.70 0.70 4.09
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.21 0.21 1.20
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 7.7% 0.39 0.03 0.17
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 13.4% 0.17 0.02 0.14
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 8.0% 0.09 0.01 0.04
Refrigeration Open Display Case 4.8% 0.53 0.03 0.15
Refrigeration lcemaker 28.2% 0.29 0.08 0.48
Refrigeration Vending Machine 8.8% 0.14 0.01 0.07
Food Preparation Oven 24.7% 0.50 0.12 0.72
Food Preparation Fryer 1.1% 0.73 0.01 0.05
Food Preparation Dishwasher 16.3% 1.00 0.16 0.95
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 10.6% 0.14 0.01 0.08
Food Preparation Steamer 11.9% 0.73 0.09 0.51
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.61 0.61 3.58
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.17
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.11 0.11 0.63
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.07 0.07 0.42
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.08 0.08 0.49
Office Equipment POS Terminal 95.6% 0.02 0.02 0.13
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 88.8% 0.18 0.16 0.95
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 58.8% 0.01 0.01 0.04
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 58.8% 0.01 0.01 0.05
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.82 0.82 4.78
Total 13.8 80.4 ----
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Table A-11 Commercial School Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation
(kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 21.5% 2.55 0.55 6.79
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 5.0% 3.78 0.19 2.34
Cooling RTU 30.3% 1.65 0.50 6.20
Cooling Room AC 2.3% 1.70 0.04 0.48
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 9.3% 1.65 0.15 1.90
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 9.3% 6.57 0.61 7.56
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 4.5% 1.00 0.05 0.57
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 4.5% 5.09 0.23 2.87
Heating Electric Furnace 0.0% 9.26
Heating Electric Room Heat 2.8% 8.82 0.25 3.11
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.05 1.05 12.96
Water Heating Water Heater 13.6% 1.46 0.20 2.46
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.16 0.16 1.97
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.88 0.88 10.94
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.90 0.90 11.21
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.27 0.27 3.39
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.68 0.68 8.46
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.61 0.61 7.60
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 19.0% 0.45 0.09 1.07
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 33.0% 0.20 0.07 0.83
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 19.7% 0.10 0.02 0.25
Refrigeration Open Display Case 11.9% 0.62 0.07 0.91
Refrigeration lcemaker 69.7% 0.34 0.24 2.95
Refrigeration Vending Machine 21.8% 0.16 0.03 0.43
Food Preparation Oven 61.4% 0.29 0.18 2.18
Food Preparation Fryer 2.6% 0.41 0.01 0.14
Food Preparation Dishwasher 40.4% 0.57 0.23 2.86
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 26.3% 0.08 0.02 0.25
Food Preparation Steamer 29.6% 0.42 0.12 1.54
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.43 0.43 5.31
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.33
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.08 0.08 0.94
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.10 0.10 1.25
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.05 0.05 0.58
Office Equipment POS Terminal 11.5% 0.01 0.00 0.02
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 43.7% 0.12 0.05 0.64
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 32.9% 0.01 0.00 0.04
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 32.9% 0.01 0.00 0.05
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.61 0.61 7.54 - ---- Total 9.7 120.9
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Table A-12 Commercial Health Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh) - - Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 16.7% 6.05 1.01 9.80
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 66.7% 7.93 5.29 51.40
Cooling RTU 11.0% 5.80 0.64 6.18
Cooling Room AC 0.4% 5.96 0.02 0.22
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.1% 5.79 0.06 0.60
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.1% 9.62 0.10 0.99
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.4% 3.53 0.01 0.13
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.4% 7.06 O.Q3 0.26
Heating Electric Furnace 0.1% 14.08 O.Q2 0.15
Heating Electric Room Heat 3.6% 13.41 0.49 4.75
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 5.33 5.33 51.78
Water Heating Water Heater 32.0% 4.99 1.59 15.49
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 1.21 1.21 11.73
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 2.63 2.63 25.57
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.78 0.78 7.55
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.12 0.12 1.15
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.22 0.22 2.15
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.56 0.56 5.42
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 33.0% 1.34 0.44 4.29
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 50.0% 0.30 0.15 1.46
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 8.6% 0.31 0.03 0.26
Refrigeration Open Display Case 6.7% 1.83 0.12 1.18
Refrigeration lcemaker 21.1% 0.50 0.11 1.03
Refrigeration Vending Machine 27.9% 0.24 0.07 0.64
Food Preparation Oven 62.2% 1.72 1.07 10.37
Food Preparation Fryer 14.2% 2.48 0.35 3.42
Food Preparation Dishwasher 30.9% 3.41 1.06 10.26
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 12.3% 0.47 0.06 0.56
Food Preparation Steamer 3.6% 2.50 0.09 0.88
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.68 0.68 6.64
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.41
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.12 0.12 1.17
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.16 0.16 1.56
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.07 0.07 0.73
Office Equipment POS Terminal 51.0% 0.05 0.03 0.27
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 74.1% 0.36 0.27 2.60
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 3.9% 0.01 0.00 0.00
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 5.7% 0.01 0.00 0.00
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 3.74 3.74 36.33
Total 28.8 279.4
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Table A-13 Commercial Lodging Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 2.1% 1.44 0.03 0.22
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 7.5% 1.88 0.14 1.02
Cooling RTU 16.3% 3.20 0.52 3.77
Cooling Room AC 40.6% 3.29 1.33 9.64
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 18.0% 3.20 0.58 4.16
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 18.0% 5.36 0.96 6.96
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 3.4% 2.76 0.09 0.68
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 3.4% 3.48 0.12 0.86
Heating Electric Furnace 1.5% 5.85 0.09 0.63
Heating Electric Room Heat 53.2% 5.57 2.97 21.45
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.89 1.89 13.66
Water Heating Water Heater 10.5% 6.41 0.67 4.87
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.98 0.98 7.09
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.57 0.57 4.13
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.20 0.20 1.48
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.24 0.24 1.74
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.29
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 1.02 1.02 7.38
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 3.0% 1.09 0.03 0.24
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 19.0% 0.25 0.05 0.34
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 40.0% 0.25 0.10 0.73
Refrigeration Open Display Case 0.0% 1.49
Refrigeration lcemaker 88.9% 0.82 0.73 5.30
Refrigeration Vending Machine 57.8% 0.39 0.22 1.62
Food Preparation Oven 24.0% 0.69 0.17 1.20
Food Preparation Fryer 4.0% 1.00 0.04 0.29
Food Preparation Dishwasher 39.0% 1.38 0.54 3.89
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 10.0% 0.19 0.02 0.14
Food Preparation Steamer 4.0% 1.01 0.04 0.29
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.17 0.17 1.22
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.19
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.22
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.10 0.10 0.72
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.02 0.02 0.13
Office Equipment POS Terminal 38.9% 0.03 0.01 0.07
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 91.3% 0.19 0.17 1.26
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 66.7% 0.03 0.02 0.14
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 2.9% 0.04 0.00 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.97 0.97 6.98
Total 15.9 115.0
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Table A-14 Commercial Warehouse Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 3.83 0.10 1.37
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 4.39 0.11 1.57
Cooling RTU 11.3% 3.76 0.42 6.05
Cooling Room AC 1.1% 3.87 0.04 0.59
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 3.76 0.06 0.92
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 5.94 0.10 1.46
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 2.29
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 4.52
Heating Electric Furnace 2.1% 7.94 0.17 2.37
Heating Electric Room Heat 11.3% 7.57 0.85 12.20
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 0.56 0.56 7.96
Water Heating Water Heater 38.3% 0.57 0.22 3.09
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.13 0.13 1.80
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.42 0.42 6.04
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1.55 1.55 22.14
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.15 0.15 2.20
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.23 0.23 3.27
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.77 0.77 11.04
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 1.1% 4.20 0.05 0.66
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 2.0% 0.94 0.02 0.27
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 0.0% 0.97
Refrigeration Open Display Case 0.0% 5.73
Refrigeration lcemaker 8.3% 1.58 0.13 1.87
Refrigeration Vending Machine 6.9% 0.74 0.05 0.73
Food Preparation Oven 0.0% 0.26
Food Preparation Fryer 0.0% 0.38
Food Preparation Dishwasher 2.0% 0.53 0.01 0.15
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 0.0% 0.07
Food Preparation Steamer 0.0% 0.39
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.21 0.21 2.96
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.37
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.52
Office Equipment Server 89.0% 0.24 0.22 3.10
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.02 0.02 0.32
Office Equipment POS Terminal 6.1% O.D7 0.00 0.06
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 49.9% 0.15 0.07 1.07
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% O.Dl
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.69 0.69 9.86
Total 7.4 106.0
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Table A-15 Commercial Miscellaneous Electric Market Profile, Washington
End Use
EUI Intensity Usage Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh) ---
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 7.8% 4.84 0.38 12.99
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 4.0% 5.48 0.22 7.61
�ooling RTU 45.9% 4.00 1.84 63.14
Cooling Room AC 4.1% 4.11 0.17 5.81
Cooling __ Air-Source Heat Pump 7.2% 4.00 0.29 9.88
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 7.2% 9.11 0.65 22.51
Heating Electric Furnace 1.9% 2.44 0.05 1.59
Heating Electric Room Heat 1.9% 7.06 0.13 4.60
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 7.5% 10.98 0.82 28.33
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 8.9% 10.46 0.93 32.03
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.65 1.65 56.57
Water Heating Water Heater 12.4% 3.13 0.39 13.38
Interior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.54 0.54 18.57
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1.44 1.44 49.67
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.55 0.55 18.97
Exterior Lighting Screw-in 100.0% 0.30 0.30 10.48
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.27 0.27 9.32
Exterior Lighting Linear �ghting 100.0% 0.22 0.22 7.72
R�frigeration Walk-in Refrigerator/Freezer 9.0% 1.16 0.10 3.59
Refrigeration Reach-in Refrigerator/Free_zer 0.0% 0.26
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 15.0% 0.27 0.04 1.38
Refrigeration Open Display Case 0.0% 1.59
Refrigeration lcemaker 41.6% 0.44 0.18 6.26
Refrigeration Vending Machine 28.6% 0.41 0.12 4.05
Food Preparation Oven 46.1% 0.45 0.21 7.14
Food Preparation Fryer 4.1% 0.65 0.03 0.92
Food Preparation Dishwasher 4.1% 0.90 0.04 1.26
Food Preparation Steamer 10.0% 0.12 0.01 0.42
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 2.4% 0.66 0.02 0.54
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.45 0.45 15.35
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.07 0.07 2.37
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.08 0.08 2.71
Office Equipment Monitor 66.0% 0.26 0.17 5.96
Office Equipment Printer/Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.05 0.05 1.68
Office Equipment POS Terminal 22.7% O.D7 0.02 0.55
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 59.9% 0.20 0.12 4.14
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 11.6% 0.03 0.00 0.12
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 5.6% 0.04 0.00 0.08
Miscellaneous Other Miscellaneous 100.0% 1.06 1.06 36.28
Total 13.6 468.0
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Table A-16 Industrial Electric Market Profile, Washington
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Empl.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 8,460.54 211.51 3.57
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 9,698.76 242.47 4.10
Cooling RTU 11.3% 9,132.91 1,028.55 17.38 --
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 8,318.63 142.89 2.41
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 13,130.99 225.54 3.81
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 5,548.53
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 8,758.37
Heating Electric Furnace 2.1% 17,566.44 366.97 6.20
Heating Electric Room Heat 11.3% 16,729.94 1,890.42 31.94
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1,232.58 1,232.58 20.83
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 144.67 144.67 2.44
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 485.74 485.74 8.21
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1,780.69 1,780.69 30.09
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 177.19 177.19 2.99
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 262.71 262.71 4.44
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 887.87 887.87 15.00
Motors Pumps 100.0% 8,050.05 8,050.05 136.02
Motors Fans & Blowers 100.0% 4,157.41 4,157.41 70.25
Motors Compressed Air 100.0% 3,414.80 3,414.80 57.70
Motors Material Handling 100.0% 14,469.97 14,469.97 244.50
Motors Other Motors 100.0% 923.27 923.27 15.60
Process Process Heating 100.0% 6,253.25 6,253.25 105.66
Process Process Cooling 100.0% 2,050.68 2,050.68 34.65
Process Process Refrigeration 100.0% 2,050.68 2,050.68 34.65
Process Process Electrochemical 100.0% 4,062.60 4,062.60 68.65
Process Process Other 100.0% 1,376.02 1,376.02 23.25
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 2,246.54 2,246.54 37.96
Total 58,135.1 982.3
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TableA-17 Residential Single Family Electric Market Profile, Idaho
UEC Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation
(kWh} (kWh/HH} (GWh}
Cooling Central AC 38.7% 1,461.65 565.36 37.91
Cooling Room AC 12.3% 444.24 54.43 3.65
Cooling Evaporative AC 1.6% 1,054.28 16.85 1.13
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 7.0% 1,531.23 107.65 7.22
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 7.0% 10,966.70 770.98 51.70
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 1,351.83
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 4,833.10
Heating Electric Furnace 7.3% 14,566.65 1,070.26 71.77
Heating Electric Room Heat 9.8% 12,794.20 1,249.67 83.80
Water Heating Water Heater(<= SS Gal) 44.0% 3,530.10 1,553.21 104.15
Water Heating Water Heater(> SS Gal) 5.8% 3,711.85 216.40 14.51
Interior Lighting General Service Lighting 100.0% 1,171.88 1,171.88 78.58
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 167.67 167.67 11.24
Interior Lighting Exempted Lighting 100.0% 324.64 324.64 21.77
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 435.52 435.52 29.20
Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 754.76 754.76 50.61
Appliances Second Refrigerator 29.6% 879.15 260.02 17.44
Appliances Freezer 66.4% 601.71 399.83 26.81
Appliances Clothes Washer 95.6% 88.59 84.68 5.68
Appliances Clothes Dryer 66.0% 795.92 525.67 35.25
Appliances Dishwasher 81.3% 403.14 327.79 21.98
Appliances Stove/Oven 58.7% 464.99 273.08 18.31
Appliances Microwave 95.5% 134.35 128.24 8.60
Electronics Personal Computers 64.0% 182.44 116.78 7.83
Electronics Monitor 75.9% 76.92 58.35 3.91
Electronics Laptops 102.8% 48.04 49.40 3.31
Electronics Printer /Fax/Copier 77.8% 61.92 48.16 3.23
Electronics TVs 202.6% 239.94 486.02 32.59
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 122.6% 113.95 139.65 9.36
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.0% 109.49 109.49 7.34
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.1% 4,324.00 4.17 0.28
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.6% 3,692.85 23.80 1.60
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 2.6% 2,306.43 59.45 3.99
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 70.5% 209.73 147.87 9.92
Miscellaneous Well Pump 20.0% 589.05 117.81 7.90
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 274.28 274.28 18.39
Total 12,093.8 811.0
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Table A-18 Residential Multifamily Electric Market Profile, Idaho
UEC Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh)
Cooling Central AC 22.6% 373.14 84.20 0.46
Cooling Room AC 31.4% 296.23 92.95 0.50
Cooling Evaporative AC 1.9% 307.50 5.78 0.03
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 2.2% 373.10 8.26 0.04
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 2.2% 1,678.19 37.15 0.20
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 329.39
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 739.59
Heating Electric Furnace 16.4% 3,064.86 503.35 2.72
Heating Electric Room Heat 59.5% 2,691.93 1,602.34 8.66
Water Heating Water Heater(<= 55 Gal) 57.4% 2,205.31 1,266.40 6.84
Water Heating Water Heater(> 55 Gal) 7.6% 2,318.85 176.44 0.95
Interior Lighting General Service Lighting 100.0% 601.99 601.99 3.25
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 43.06 43.06 0.23
Interior Lighting Exempted Lighting 100.0% 34.62 34.62 0.19
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.01 0.01 0.00
Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 715.36 715.36 3.87
Appliances Second Refrigerator 3.0% 833.25 25.29 0.14
Appliances Freezer 23.4% 571.74 133.91 0.72
Appliances Clothes Washer 61.0% 82.99 50.67 0.27
Appliances Clothes Dryer 43.5% 599.33 260.52 1.41
Appliances Dishwasher 74.6% 382.79 285.69 1.54
Appliances Stove/Oven 70.1% 356.68 250.13 1.35
Appliances Microwave 88.7% 127.95 113.50 0.61
Electronics Personal Computers 46.8% 173.75 81.39 0.44
Electronics Monitor 55.5% 73.26 40.66 0.22
Electronics Laptops 88.9% 45.75 40.66 0.22
Electronics Printer /Fax/Copier 52.5% 58.97 30.94 0.17
Electronics TVs 143.3% 268.95 385.32 2.08
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 75.1% 108.52 81.49 0.44
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.0% 104.27 104.27 0.56
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.0% 4,324.00
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 3,517.00
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 2,196.60
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 33.7% 74.65 25.19 0.14
Miscellaneous Well Pump 0.0% 556.00
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 167.05 167.05 0.90
Total 7,248.6 39.2
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Table A-19 Residential Manufactured Home Electric Market Profile, Idaho
UEC Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation {kWh) {kWh/HH) (GWh)
Cooling Central AC 36.5% 500.40 182.86 0.91
Cooling Room AC 20.2% 395.33 79.86 0.40
Cooling Evaporative AC 0.0% 318.65
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 5.1% 500.40 25.66 0.13
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 5.1% 5,486.00 281.33 1.40
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 440.55
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 2,513.55
Heating Electric Furnace 42.9% 6,667.83 2,857.64 14.18
Heating Electric Room Heat 10.7% 5,856.50 627.48 3.11
Water Heating Water Heater(<= SS Gal) 66.4% 2,370.29 1,573.86 7.81
Water Heating Water Heater(> SS Gal) 8.8% 2,492.32 219.28 1.09
Interior Lighting General Service Lighting 100.0% 696.96 696.96 3.46
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 65.60 65.60 0.33
Interior Lighting Exempted Lighting 100.0% 147.51 147.51 0.73
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 156.16 156.16 0.78
Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 679.45 679.45 3.37
Appliances Second Refrigerator 20.7% 791.42 163.67 0.81
Appliances Freezer 48.6% 545.58 265.28 1.32
Appliances Clothes Washer 95.1% 80.02 76.08 0.38
Appliances Clothes Dryer 82.2% 898.03 737.76 3.66
Appliances Dishwasher 75.3% 365.62 275.41 1.37
Appliances Stove/Oven 82.6% 510.08 421.53 2.09
Appliances Microwave 94.6% 121.55 115.01 0.57
Electronics Personal Computers 47.0% 165.06 77.54 0.38
Electronics Monitor 55.7% 69.60 38.74 0.19
Electronics Laptops 60.0% 43.46 26.07 0.13
Electronics Printer/Fax/Copier 43.4% 56.02 24.29 0.12
Electronics TVs 112.7% 272.78 307.44 1.53
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 103.4% 103.10 106.64 0.53
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.0% 99.06 99.06 0.49
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.0% 4,324.00 2.09 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 3,341.15
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 2,086.77
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 72.0% 158.46 114.07 0.57
Miscellaneous Well Pump 0.0% 428.45
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 428.50 428.50 2.13
Total 10,872.9 54.0
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Table A-20 Residential Low Income Electric Market Profile, Idaho
UEC Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/HH) (GWh)
Cooling Central AC 25.4% 486.58 123.66 4.06
Cooling Room AC 28.7% 350.20 100.60 3.31
Cooling Evaporative AC 1.6% 366.90 5.91 0.19
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 2.9% 490.00 14.19 0.47
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 2.9% 2,511.52 72.71 2.39
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 432.24
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 1,122.71
Heating Electric Furnace 19.4% 3,722.97 723.56 23.78
Heating Electric Room Heat 50.0% 3,269.96 1,633.91 53.70
Water Heating Water Heater(<= SS Gal) 57.8% 2,154.62 1,245.94 40.95
Water Heating Water Heater(> SS Gal) 7.7% 2,265.55 173.59 5.71
Interior Lighting General Service Lighting 100.0% 649.00 649.00 21.33
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 53.58 53.58 1.76
Interior Lighting Exempted Lighting 100.0% 67.23 67.23 2.21
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 47.17 47.17 1.55
Appliances Refrigerator 100.0% 672.61 672.61 22.11
Appliances Second Refrigerator 7.0% 783.46 54.87 1.80
Appliances Freezer 29.4% 537.83 158.11 5.20
Appliances Clothes Washer 67.7% 78.25 52.98 1.74
Appliances Clothes Dryer 50.0% 616.09 308.23 10.13
Appliances Dishwasher 75.1% 360.15 270.57 8.89
Appliances Stove/Oven 71.1% 362.95 258.15 8.48
Appliances Microwave 89.9% 120.27 108.13 3.55
Electronics Personal Computers 47.9% 163.32 78.22 2.57
Electronics Monitor 56.8% 68.86 39.08 1.28
Electronics Laptops 85.8% 43.00 36.91 1.21
Electronics Printer /Fax/Copier 52.8% 55.43 29.25 0.96
Electronics TVs 142.7% 252.83 360.84 11.86
Electronics Set-top Boxes/DVRs 81.8% 102.01 83.40 2.74
Electronics Devices and Gadgets 100.0% 98.02 98.02 3.22
Miscellaneous Electric Vehicles 0.0% 4,324.00
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 3,305.98 1.28 0.04
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.2% 2,064.80 3.20 0.11
Miscellaneous Furnace Fan 41.1% 94.04 38.65 1.27
Miscellaneous Well Pump 1.2% 509.64 6.12 0.20
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 256.48 256.48 8.43
Total 7,826.1 257.2
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Table A-21 Commercial Small Office Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) {GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 0.5% 4.73 0.02 0.21
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 0.0% 5.36
Cooling RTU 74.3% 3.91 2.90 25.79
Cooling Room AC 2.7% 4.02 0.11 0.96
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 9.1% 3.91 0.36 3.16
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 9.1% 6.04 0.55 4.88
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 3.6% 2.38 0.08 0.75
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 3.6% 4.59 0.16 1.45
Heating Electric Furnace 1.6% 7.15 0.11 1.02
Heating Electric Room Heat 31.0% 6.81 2.11 18.74
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.37 1.37 12.17
Water Heating Water Heater 46.4% 1.03 0.48 4.24
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.35 0.35 3.13
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.76 1.76 15.65
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.32 0.32 2.80
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.18 0.18 1.61
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.20 0.20 1.77
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.59 0.59 5.22
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 0.0% 2.70
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 1.6% 0.61 0.01 0.09
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 0.5% 0.62 0.00 0.03
Refrigeration Open Display Case 0.5% 3.68 0.02 0.15
Refrigeration lcemaker 0.5% 1.02 0.00 0.04
Refrigeration Vending Machine 0.2% 0.48 0.00 0.01
Food Preparation Oven 2.7% 1.69 0.05 0.41
Food Preparation Fryer 0.0% 2.44
Food Preparation Dishwasher 0.0% 3.36
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 0.0% 0.46
Food Preparation Steamer 0.0% 2.46
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 1.37 1.37 12.14
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.21 0.21 1.87
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.24 0.24 2.14
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.40 0.40 3.57
Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.19 0.19 1.66
Office Equipment POS Terminal 17.2% 0.11 0.02 0.16
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 22.0% 0.25 0.05 0.48
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 1.06 1.06 9.42
Total 15.3 135.8
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Table A-22 Commercial Large Office Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 15.1% 2.42 0.37 0.36
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 9.3% 2.68 0.25 0.25
Cooling RTU 49.0% 2.95 1.45 1.43
Cooling Room AC 2.6% 3.04 0.08 0.08
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 8.3% 2.95 0.25 0.24 --- Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 8.3% 4.35 0.36 0.36
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 7.2% 1.80 0.13 0.13
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 7.2% 3.45 0.25 0.24
Heating Electric Furnace 1.6% 4.75 0.08 0.07
Heating Electric Room Heat 30.5% 4.53 1.38 1.36
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 2.74 2.74 2.70
Water Heating Water Heater 45.2% 0.91 0.41 0.41
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.55 0.55 0.54
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 2.59 2.59 2.55
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.25 0.25 0.25
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.17 0.17 0.16
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.30 0.30 0.30
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 1.01 1.01 1.00
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 2.0% 1.51 0.03 0.03
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 14.0% 0.34 0.05 0.05
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 4.0% 0.35 0.01 0.01
Refrigeration Open Display Case 4.0% 2.06 0.08 0.08
Refrigeration lcemaker 4.0% 0.57 0.02 0.02
Refrigeration Vending Machine 2.1% 0.27 0.01 0.01
Food Preparation Oven 10.0% 0.71 0.07 0.07
Food Preparation Fryer 1.0% 1.02 0.01 0.01
Food Preparation Dishwasher 12.0% 1.41 0.17 0.17
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 1.0% 0.19 0.00 0.00
Food Preparation Steamer 1.0% 1.03 0.01 0.01
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 1.56 1.56 1.54
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.24 0.24 0.24
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.28 0.28 0.27
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.92 0.92 0.91
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.14 0.14 0.14
Office Equipment POS Terminal 57.6% 0.02 0.01 0.01
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 89.6% 0.23 0.21 0.21
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.93 0.93 0.91 --- Total 17.4 17.1
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Table A-23 Commercial Restaurant Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 0.3% 3.75 0.01 0.00
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 0.0% 4.14
Cooling RTU 71.5% 4.71 3.36 1.00
Cooling Room AC 5.9% 4.84 0.28 0.08
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 7.4% 4.71 0.35 0.10
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 7.4% 5.60 0.41 0.12
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 4.0% 2.87 0.11 0.03
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 4.0% 3.95 0.16 0.05
Heating Electric Furnace 2.5% 7.94 0.20 0.06
Heating Electric Room Heat 0.2% 7.56 0.02 0.01
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 2.57 2.57 0.77
Water Heating Water Heater 15.1% 9.16 1.39 0.41
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 2.08 2.08 0.62
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 2.24 2.24 0.67
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1.37 1.37 0.41
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.63 0.63 0.19
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.48 0.48 0.14
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 1.68 1.68 0.50
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 74.0% 6.82 5.05 1.51
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 7.0% 3.06 0.21 0.06
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 77.6% 1.57 1.22 0.36
Refrigeration Open Display Case 26.0% 9.31 2.42 0.72
Refrigeration lcemaker 75.9% 2.57 1.95 0.58
Refrigeration Vending Machine 0.0% 1.21
Food Preparation Oven 21.0% 4.66 0.98 0.29
Food Preparation Fryer 82.0% 6.75 5.53 1.65
Food Preparation Dishwasher 52.5% 4.64 2.44 0.73
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 84.0% 0.64 0.53 0.16
Food Preparation Steamer 16.0% 3.40 0.54 0.16
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.36 0.36 0.11
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.01
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.06 0.06 0.02
Office Equipment Server 50.0% 0.43 0.21 0.06
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.08 0.08 0.02
Office Equipment POS Terminal 65.0% 0.11 0.07 0.02
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 20.0% 0.62 0.12 0.04
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 2.78 2.78 0.83
Total 42.0 12.S
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Table A-24 Commercial Retail Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 0.8% 3.39 0.03 0.35
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 0.5% 3.84 0.02 0.24
Cooling RTU 58.1% 2.80 1.63 20.16
Cooling Room AC 5.5% 3.06 0.17 2.09
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 2.1% 2.80 0.06 0.74
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 2.1% 4.75 0.10 1.25
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 2.0% 1.71 0.03 0.42
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 2.0% 3.23 0.06 0.80
Heating Electric Furnace 0.9% 5.93 0.06 0.70
Heating Electric Room Heat 11.1% 5.65 0.63 7.75
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.17 1.17 14.49
Water Heating Water Heater 38.2% 0.95 0.36 4.49
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 1.36 1.36 16.82
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.74 1.74 21.57
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1.89 1.89 23.47
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.45 0.45 5.52
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.30 0.30 3.74
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.95 0.95 11.80
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 2.0% 2.42 0.05 0.60
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 1.6% 0.54 0.01 0.11
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 16.3% 0.56 0.09 1.12
Refrigeration Open Display Case 14.0% 3.30 0.46 5.72
Refrigeration lcemaker 7.1% 0.91 0.06 0.81
Refrigeration Vending Machine 22.8% 0.43 0.10 1.21
Food Preparation Oven 4.0% 2.97 0.12 1.47
Food Preparation Fryer 0.0% 4.30
Food Preparation Dishwasher 2.0% 5.92 0.12 1.47
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 1.0% 0.81 0.01 0.10
Food Preparation Steamer 0.0% 4.34
· Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.26 0.26 3.26
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.50
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.05 0.05 0.58
Office Equipment Server 82.0% 0.15 0.13 1.57
Office Equipment Printer/Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.36
Office Equipment POS Terminal 73.8% 0.08 0.06 0.76
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 40.2% 0.26 0.10 1.29
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.96 0.96 11.94
Total 13.7 169.3
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Table A-25 Commercial Grocery Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 0.5% 5.06 O.Q3 0.05
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 0.3% 5.72 0.02 0.04
Cooling RTU 75.2% 4.18 3.14 6.22
Cooling Room AC 3.5% 4.29 0.15 0.30
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 3.3% 3.69 0.12 0.24
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 3.3% 3.15 0.10 0.21
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.5% 1.56 0.01 0.02
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.5% 2.02 0.01 0.02
Heating Electric Furnace 9.8% 5.88 0.58 1.14
Heating Electric Room Heat 1.8% 5.60 0.10 0.20
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 2.03 2.03 4.01
Water Heating Water Heater 17.5% 2.13 0.37 0.74
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 1.13 1.13 2.24
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 5.07 5.07 10.04
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 2.84 2.84 5.61
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.58 0.58 1.15
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.63 0.63 1.25
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 1.42 1.42 2.82
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 16.0% 5.02 0.80 1.59
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 83.1% 0.32 0.27 0.53
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 95.6% 3.30 3.16 6.25
Refrigeration Open Display Case 95.6% 19.57 18.72 37.05
Refrigeration lcemaker 66.6% 0.27 0.18 0.36
Refrigeration Vending Machine 36.5% 0.25 0.09 0.18
Food Preparation Oven 11.0% 0.59 O.Q7 0.13
Food Preparation Fryer 87.0% 0.86 0.74 1.47
Food Preparation Dishwasher 54.9% 1.18 0.65 1.28
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 73.0% 0.16 0.12 0.23
Food Preparation Steamer 20.0% 0.86 0.17 0.34
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.15 0.15 0.30
Office Equipment Laptop 64.0% 0.02 0.01 0.03
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.05
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.09 0.09 0.17
Office Equipment Printer /Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.02 0.02 0.03
Office Equipment POS Terminal 95.9% 0.06 0.06 0.11
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 34.6% 0.69 0.24 0.47
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 2.89 2.89 5.71
Total 46.8 92.6
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Table A-26 Commercial College Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 27.1% 4.69 1.27 6.79
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 5.0% 6.95 0.35 1.86
Cooling RTU 39.5% 3.04 1.20 6.41
Cooling Room AC 2.9% 3.12 0.09 0.48
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 3.8% 3.03 0.12 0.62
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 3.8% 8.69 0.33 1.77
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.9% 1.85 0.02 0.09
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.9% 6.73 0.06 0.34
Heating Electric Furnace 0.0% 12.25
Heating Electric Room Heat 19.1% 11.66 2.23 11.89
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.97 1.97 10.51
Water Heating Water Heater 15.1% 2.69 0.40 2.16
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.17 0.17 0.89
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.50 1.50 7.99
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.37 0.37 1.99
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.31 0.31 1.66
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.70 0.70 3.74
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.21 0.21 1.10
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 7.7% 0.39 0.03 0.16
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 13.4% 0.17 0.02 0.12
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 8.0% 0.09 0.01 0.04
Refrigeration Open Display Case 4.8% 0.53 0.03 0.14
Refrigeration lcemaker 28.2% 0.29 0.08 0.44
Refrigeration Vending Machine 8.8% 0.14 0.01 0.06
Food Preparation Oven 24.7% 0.50 0.12 0.66
Food Preparation Fryer 1.1% 0.73 0.01 0.04
Food Preparation Dishwasher 16.3% 1.00 0.16 0.87
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 10.6% 0.14 0.01 0.08
Food Preparation Steamer 11.9% 0.73 0.09 0.47
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.61 0.61 3.28
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.15
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.11 0.11 0.58
Office Equipment Server 100.0% O.Q7 0.07 0.39
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.08 0.08 0.45
Office Equipment POS Terminal 95.6% 0.02 0.02 0.12
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 88.8% 0.18 0.16 0.87
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 58.8% 0.01 0.01 0.04
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 58.8% 0.01 0.01 0.05
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.82 0.82 4.38
Total 13.8 73.7
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Table A-27 Commercial School Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation
(kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 21.5% 2.55 0.55 6.21
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 5.0% 3.78 0.19 2.14
Cooling RTU 30.3% 1.65 0.50 5.67
Cooling Room AC 2.3% 1.70 0.04 0.44
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 9.3% 1.65 0.15 1.73
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 9.3% 6.57 0.61 6.91
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 4.5% 1.00 0.05 0.52
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 4.5% 5.09 0.23 2.62
Heating Electric Furnace 0.0% 9.26
Heating Electric Room Heat 2.8% 8.82 0.25 2.84
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.05 1.05 11.85
Water Heating Water Heater 13.6% 1.46 0.20 2.25
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.16 0.16 1.80
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.88 0.88 10.00
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.90 0.90 10.24
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.27 0.27 3.10
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.68 0.68 7.73
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.61 0.61 6.95
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 19.0% 0.45 0.09 0.98
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 33.0% 0.20 0.07 0.76
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 19.7% 0.10 0.02 0.23
Refrigeration Open Display Case 11.9% 0.62 0.07 0.83
Refrigeration lcemaker 69.7% 0.34 0.24 2.70
Refrigeration Vending Machine 21.8% 0.16 0.03 0.40
Food Preparation Oven 61.4% 0.29 0.18 1.99
Food Preparation Fryer 2.6% 0.41 0.01 0.12
Food Preparation Dishwasher 40.4% 0.57 0.23 2.62
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 26.3% 0.08 0.02 0.23
Food Preparation Steamer 29.6% 0.42 0.12 1.41
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.43 0.43 4.86
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.30
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.08 0.08 0.86
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.10 0.10 1.14
Office Equipment Printer /Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.05 0.05 0.53
Office Equipment POS Terminal 11.5% 0.01 0.00 0.02
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 43.7% 0.12 0.05 0.58
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 32.9% 0.01 0.00 0.03
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 32.9% 0.01 0.00 0.04
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.61 0.61 6.89
Total 9.7 110.S
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Table A-28 Commercial Health Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 16.7% 6.05 1.01 3.75
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 66.7% 7.93 5.29 19.66 --- Cooling RTU 11.0% 5.80 0.64 2.36
Cooling Room AC 0.4% 5.96 0.02 0.09
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.1% 5.79 0.06 0.23
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.1% 9.62 0.10 0.38
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.4% 3.53 0.01 0.05
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.4% 7.06 0.03 0.10
Heating Electric Furnace 0.1% 14.08 0.02 0.06
Heating Electric Room Heat 3.6% 13.41 0.49 1.82
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 5.33 5.33 19.80
Water Heating Water Heater 32.0% 4.99 1.59 5.92
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 1.21 1.21 4.49
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 2.63 2.63 9.78
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.78 0.78 2.89
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.12 0.12 0.44
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.22 0.22 0.82
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.56 0.56 2.07
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 33.0% 1.34 0.44 1.64
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 50.0% 0.30 0.15 0.56
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 8.6% 0.31 0.03 0.10
Refrigeration Open Display Case 6.7% 1.83 0.12 0.45
Refrigeration lcemaker 21.1% 0.50 0.11 0.39
Refrigeration Vending Machine 27.9% 0.24 0.07 0.25
Food Preparation Oven 62.2% 1.72 1.07 3.97
Food Preparation Fryer 14.2% 2.48 0.35 1.31
Food Preparation Dishwasher 30.9% 3.41 1.06 3.92
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 12.3% 0.47 0.06 0.21
Food Preparation Steamer 3.6% 2.50 0.09 0.34
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.68 0.68 2.54
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.16
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.12 0.12 0.45
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.16 0.16 0.60
Office Equipment Printer /Copier/Fax 100.0% 0.07 0.07 0.28
Office Equipment POS Terminal 51.0% 0.05 0.03 0.10
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 74.1% 0.36 0.27 0.99
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 3.9% 0.01 0.00 0.00
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 5.7% 0.01 0.00 0.00
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 3.74 3.74 13.89
Total 28.8 106.9
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Table A-29 Commercial Lodging Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 2.1% 1.44 0.03 0.09
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 7.5% 1.88 0.14 0.44
Cooling RTU 16.3% 3.20 0.52 1.61
Cooling Room AC 40.6% 3.29 1.33 4.12
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 18.0% 3.20 0.58 1.78
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 18.0% 5.36 0.96 2.98
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 3.4% 2.76 0.09 0.29
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 3.4% 3.48 0.12 0.37
Heating Electric Furnace 1.5% 5.85 0.09 0.27
Heating Electric Room Heat 53.2% 5.57 2.97 9.18
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.89 1.89 5.84
Water Heating Water Heater 10.5% 6.41 0.67 2.08
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.98 0.98 3.03
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.57 0.57 1.76
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.20 0.20 0.63
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.24 0.24 0.74
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.12
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 1.02 1.02 3.15
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 3.0% 1.09 0.03 0.10
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator/Freezer 19.0% 0.25 0.05 0.14
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 40.0% 0.25 0.10 0.31
Refrigeration Open Display Case 0.0% 1.49
Refrigeration lcemaker 88.9% 0.82 0.73 2.27
Refrigeration Vending Machine 57.8% 0.39 0.22 0.69
Food Preparation Oven 24.0% 0.69 0.17 0.51
Food Preparation Fryer 4.0% 1.00 0.04 0.12
Food Preparation Dishwasher 39.0% 1.38 0.54 1.66
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 10.0% 0.19 0.02 0.06
Food Preparation Steamer 4.0% 1.01 0.04 0.13
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.17 0.17 0.52
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.08
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.09
Office Equipment Server 100.0% 0.10 0.10 0.31
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.02 0.02 0.06
Office Equipment POS Terminal 38.9% 0.03 0.01 0.03
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 91.3% 0.19 0.17 0.54
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 66.7% 0.03 0.02 0.06
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 2.9% 0.04 0.00 0.00
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.97 0.97 2.99
Total 15.9 49.2
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Table A-30 Commercial Warehouse Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 3.83 0.10 0.62
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 4.39 0.11 0.71
Cooling RTU 11.3% 3.76 0.42 2.74
Cooling Room AC 1.1% 3.87 0.04 0.27
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 3.76 0.06 0.42 ----
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 5.94 0.10 0.66
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 2.29
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 4.52
Heating Electric Furnace 2.1% 7.94 0.17 1.07
Heating Electric Room Heat 11.3% 7.57 0.85 5.52
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 0.56 0.56 3.60
Water Heating Water Heater 38.3% 0.57 0.22 1.40
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.13 0.13 0.81
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.42 0.42 2.73
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1.55 1.55 10.01
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.15 0.15 1.00
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.23 0.23 1.48
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.77 0.77 4.99
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 1.1% 4.20 0.05 0.30
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 2.0% 0.94 0.02 0.12
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 0.0% 0.97
Refrigeration Open Display Case 0.0% 5.73
Refrigeration lcemaker 8.3% 1.58 0.13 0.85
Refrigeration Vending Machine 6.9% 0.74 0.05 0.33
Food Preparation Oven 0.0% 0.26
Food Preparation Fryer 0.0% 0.38
Food Preparation Dishwasher 2.0% 0.53 0.01 0.07
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 0.0% 0.07
Food Preparation Steamer 0.0% 0.39
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.21 0.21 1.34
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.03 0.03 0.17
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.04 0.04 0.24
Office Equipment Server 89.0% 0.24 0.22 1.40
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.02 0.02 0.15
Office Equipment POS Terminal 6.1% 0.07 0.00 O.Q3
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 49.9% 0.15 0.07 0.48
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 0.0% 0.01
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 0.69 0.69 4.46
Total 7.4 47.9
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
678
Table A-31 Commercial Miscellaneous Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage
End Use Technology Saturation (kWh} (kWh/Sqft.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 7.8% 4.84 0.38 4.71
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 4.0% 5.48 0.22 2.76
Cooling RTU 45.9% 4.00 1.84 22.90
Cooling Room AC 4.1% 4.11 0.17 2.11
Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 7.2% 4.00 0.29 3.58
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 7.2% 9.11 0.65 8.17
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 1.9% 2.44 0.05 0.58
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 1.9% 7.06 0.13 1.67
Heating Electric Furnace 7.5% 10.98 0.82 10.27
Heating Electric Room Heat 8.9% 10.46 0.93 11.62
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 1.65 1.65 20.52
Water Heating Water Heater 12.4% 3.13 0.39 4.85
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.54 0.54 6.74
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 1.44 1.44 18.02
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 0.55 0.55 6.88
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 0.30 0.30 3.80
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 0.27 0.27 3.38
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 0.22 0.22 2.80
Refrigeration Walk-In Refrigerator/Freezer 9.0% 1.16 0.10 1.30
Refrigeration Reach-In Refrigerator /Freezer 0.0% 0.26
Refrigeration Glass Door Display 15.0% 0.27 0.04 0.50
Refrigeration Open Display Case 0.0% 1.59
Refrigeration lcemaker 41.6% 0.44 0.18 2.27
Refrigeration Vending Machine 28.6% 0.41 0.12 1.47
Food Preparation Oven 46.1% 0.45 0.21 2.59
Food Preparation Fryer 4.1% 0.65 0.03 0.33
Food Preparation Dishwasher 4.1% 0.90 0.04 0.46
Food Preparation Hot Food Container 10.0% 0.12 0.01 0.15
Food Preparation Steamer 2.4% 0.66 0.02 0.20
Office Equipment Desktop Computer 100.0% 0.45 0.45 5.57
Office Equipment Laptop 100.0% 0.07 0.07 0.86
Office Equipment Monitor 100.0% 0.08 0.08 0.98
Office Equipment Server 66.0% 0.26 0.17 2.16
Office Equipment Printer /Copier /Fax 100.0% 0.05 0.05 0.61
Office Equipment POS Terminal 22.7% 0.07 0.02 0.20
Miscellaneous Non-HVAC Motors 59.9% 0.20 0.12 1.50
Miscellaneous Pool Pump 11.6% 0.03 0.00 0.04
Miscellaneous Pool Heater 5.6% 0.04 0.00 0.03
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 1.06 1.06 13.16
Total 13.6 169.8
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
679
Table A-32 Industrial Electric Market Profile, Idaho
EUI Intensity Usage End Use Technology Saturation (kWh) (kWh/Em pl.) (GWh)
Cooling Air-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 6,171.21 154.28 1.37
Cooling Water-Cooled Chiller 2.5% 7,074.38 176.86 1.57
Cooling RTU 11.3% 6,661.64 750.24 6.67 ---- Cooling Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 6,067.70 104.22 0.93
Heating Air-Source Heat Pump 1.7% 9,394.72 161.37 1.44 ----
Cooling Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 4,047.15
Heating Geothermal Heat Pump 0.0% 6,266.28
Heating Electric Furnace 2.1% 12,568.11 262.55 2.34
Heating Electric Room Heat 11.3% 11,969.63 1,352.52 12.03
Ventilation Ventilation 100.0% 890.77 890.77 7.93
Interior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 104.36 104.36 0.93
Interior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 350.40 350.40 3.12
Interior Lighting High-Bay Fixtures 100.0% 1,284.54 1,284.54 11.43
Exterior Lighting Screw-In 100.0% 127.82 127.82 1.14
Exterior Lighting Linear Lighting 100.0% 189.51 189.51 1.69
Exterior Lighting Area Lighting 100.0% 640.49 640.49 5.70
Motors Pumps 100.0% 5,807.10 5,807.10 51.67
Motors Fans & Blowers 100.0% 2,999.05 2,999.05 26.68
Motors Compressed Air 100.0% 2,463.35 2,463.35 21.92
Motors Material Handling 100.0% 10,438.26 10,438.26 92.87
Motors Other Motors 100.0% 666.02 666.02 5.93
Process Process Heating 100.0% 4,510.93 4,510.93 40.13
Process Process Cooling 100.0% 1,479.31 1,479.31 13.16
Process Process Refrigeration 100.0% 1,479.31 1,479.31 13.16
Process Process Electrochemical 100.0% 2,930.65 2,930.65 26.07
Process Process Other 100.0% 992.62 992.62 8.83
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 100.0% 1,620.59 1,620.59 14.42
Total 41,937.1 373.1
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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APPENDIX c
MEASURE DATA
Please see measure-level assumptions and details in the file "Avista 2016 CPA Measure Assumptions.xlsx"
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
685
APPENDIX D
NON-EQUIPMENT MEASURE DATA
Please see measure-level assumptions and details in the file "Avista Appendix- Non-Equipment Measure
Data.xlsx"
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Applied Energy Group
500 Ygnacio Valley Road, Suite 450
Walnut Creek, CA 94596
687
I
P: 925.482.2000
F: 925.284.3147
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
688
2017 Electric Integrated
Resource Plan
Appendix D - Conservation
Potential Assessment Measure
Assumptions
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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764
2017 Electric Integrated
Resource Plan
Appendix E - 2017 IRP
Transmission Requests
��iillSTII"
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
765
Appendix E
New Resource Table For Transmission
Mid-Columbia Anticipated Contract Extensions
Mid-C contract extensions may replace or modify resources named above
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
Total 393.2 393.2
Resource POR Capacity Year
Resource Note Location or Local Area POD Start Sto MW Total
Wells Mid-C Mid-C AVA S stem 10/1/2028 TBD 22.0 22.0
Rock Reach Mid-C Mid-C AVA S stem 1/1/2031 TBD 59.0
Rock Island Mid-C Mid-C AVA S stem 1/1/2031 TBD 21.0 80.0
Total 80.0 80.0
1 The capacity is subject to change depending upon customer participation
2 Modified POR to "Mid-C/AVA System" to reflect possibility of off-system SCCT integrated at Mid-C
Resource POR Capacity Year
Resource Note Location or Local Area POD Start Stoo MW Total
Solar 1 AVA System AVA System AVA System 12/2018 Indefinite 15.0 15.0
SCCT 2 TBD Mid-C/AVA System AVA System 10/1/2026 Indefinite 196.6
Kettle Falls Kettle Falls, WA Kettle Falls AVA System 10/1/2026 Indefinite 5.0
Rathdrum Rathdrum, WA Rathdrum AVA System 10/1/2026 Indefinite 18.5 220.1
Northeast Spokane, WA Northeast AVA System 12/1/2028 Indefinite 7.5
Kettle Falls Kettle Falls, WA Kettle Falls AVA System 12/1/2028 Indefinite 3.0 10.5
Storage TBD Mid-C/AVA System AVA System 12/1/2029 Indefinite 5.0 5.0
SCCT 2 TBD Mid-C/AVA System AVA System 12/1/2030 Indefinite 96.1 96.1
SCCT 2 TBD Mid-C/AVA System AVA System 12/1/2034 Indefinite 46.5 46.5
------ ----- ------------
766
2017 Electric Integrated
Resource Plan
Appendix F - Summary of
Changes to the 2017 I RP from
the 2015 IRP
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
767
Appendix F
Summary of 2017 IRP Changes from the 2015 IRP
Per the request of members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) this summary
provides an overview of major changes in the analysis since the 2015 IRP. This
document does not describe the specific changes, but rather briefs readers regarding
significant or major methodological changes.
Capacity and Energy Position, Including Load Forecasting
• Inclusion of the 7 percent summer planning margin, the 2015 IRP did not have a
summer planning margin. Both plans include meeting operating reserves and
regulation requirements.
• Change to electric vehicle forecast from a linear increase to an exponential in the
energy forecast.
Conservation
• Models all conservation measures in PRiSM, versus modeling conservation
outside the model. This was done both ways in the 2015 IRP.
• Updated deferred transmission and distribution (T&D) capital to a historical view
of cost from a 10-year old study.
Supply-Side Resource Options
• Added additional storage resource types, now both 1 MW x 3 hours and 1 MW x
6 hours capacity to energy ratio options, the prior IRP only included the 1 MW x 3
hours option.
• Includes deferred T&D capital estimates for storage projects. The 2015 IRP did
not have this estimate.
• Added a Montana wind resource option, including a peak capacity credit.
• Assumes investment tax credit (ITC) eligible resources tax credit is not amortized
to simulate a PPA rather than utility ownership per the prior IRP.
• Tipping point analysis for renewables replaced with avoided cost calculation for
resources options not selected in the PRS.
Market Analysis
• Use new functionality to estimate carbon emission prices based on emission
level goals rather than arbitrary emission prices. This allows for a different price
of carbon for each scenario or stochastic draw based on market fundamentals of
the emission reduction goal. The prior IRP used fixed input carbon prices based
on 10 percent probability of a $13 per ton "tax".
• Using a delayed Clean Power Plan for emission reduction for the west (including
Montana), with additional reduction requirements based on the Clean Air Rule in
Washington, and capping Oregon at 30 percent below 2015 amounts by 2025.
The prior plan used the draft Clean Power Plan for regional emission reductions.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
768
• Uses new functionality to allow the AURORAXMP model regional renewable
portfolio standards, rather than regional renewables input into the model as done
in prior plans.
• Added renewable energy beyond the existing RPS levels equal to one percent of
load to account for voluntary renewable programs.
• Using only one consultant natural gas price forecast along with market forward
prices rather than the average of two consultant forecasts along with market
forward prices as in prior plans.
2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
769
2017 Electric Integrated
Resource Plan
Appendix G - Summary of
Supply-Side Resource Costs
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2017 Electric IRP Appendix A
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