Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout20170609Morehouse Direct.pdf DAVID J. MEYER VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF COUNSEL FOR REGULATORY & GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS AVISTA CORPORATION P.O. BOX 3727 1411 EAST MISSION AVENUE SPOKANE, WASHINGTON 99220-3727 TELEPHONE: (509) 495-4316 FACSIMILE: (509) 495-8851 DAVID.MEYER@AVISTACORP.COM BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION ) CASE NO. AVU-G-17-01 OF AVISTA CORPORATION FOR THE ) AUTHORITY TO INCREASE ITS RATES ) AND CHARGES FOR ELECTRIC AND ) NATURAL GAS SERVICE TO ELECTRIC ) DIRECT TESTIMONY AND NATURAL GAS CUSTOMERS IN THE ) OF STATE OF IDAHO ) JODY MOREHOUSE ) FOR AVISTA CORPORATION (NATURAL GAS ONLY) Morehouse, Di 1 Avista Corporation I. INTRODUCTION 1 Q. Please state your name, business address, and present 2 position with Avista Corp. 3 A. My name is Jody Morehouse and I am employed as Director of Gas Supply for Avista Utilities (Avista or Company). My business address is 1411 East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington. In my current role I am responsible for Avista’s 7 natural gas supply and upstream pipeline transportation resources. Q. Would you please describe your education and business 10 experience? 11 A. Yes. I graduated from Montana State University with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Mechanical Engineering and hold a professional engineering license in the State of Washington. I joined the Company in 1989 and have held staff and management positions in our natural gas engineering, natural gas operations, natural gas planning, and natural gas measurement departments. Additionally, I held the position of Manager of Pipeline Integrity and Compliance prior to my current role. Q. What is the purpose of your testimony in this 20 proceeding? 21 A. The purpose of my testimony is to describe Avista’s 22 natural gas resource planning process, provide an overview of Morehouse, Di 2 Avista Corporation the Jackson Prairie natural gas storage facility, and provide an overview of the Company’s 2016 Natural Gas Integrated 2 Resource Plan. A table of contents for my testimony is as follows: Description Page I. Introduction 1 II. Planning for Commodity Resource Procurement 3 III. Jackson Prairie 10 IV. Integrated Resource Plan 12 Q. Are you sponsoring exhibits in this proceeding? 11 A. Yes. I am sponsoring Exhibit No. 7, Schedule 1, which is a copy of the Company’s 2016 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan acknowledged by this Commission on February 23, 2017. Q. Is the Company proposing any changes to the cost of 15 natural gas for its retail natural gas customers in this case? 16 A. No, Avista is not proposing changes in this filing related to the commodity cost of natural gas or upstream pipeline transportation resource costs. Changes in the commodity cost of natural gas and the cost of natural gas pipeline transportation included in customers’ rates are 21 addressed in the Company’s annual Purchased Gas Cost Adjustment (PGA) filing. The Company expects to file its annual PGA on or before September 1, 2017, with new rates proposed to become effective November 1, 2017. Morehouse, Di 3 Avista Corporation II. PLANNING FOR COMMODITY RESOURCE PROCUREMENT 1 Q. Please describe Avista’s natural gas portfolio as it 2 relates to the procurement of the natural gas commodity for its 3 local distribution company (“LDC”) customers? 4 A. Avista purchases natural gas for its distribution customers in wholesale markets at multiple supply basins in the western United States and western Canada. Purchased natural gas can be transported through six inter-connected pipelines on which Avista holds firm contractual transportation rights. These contracts provide access to both US and Canadian-sourced supply. The US-sourced natural gas represents approximately 25% of the contractual rights and provides transportation from the Rocky Mountain supply basin. The remaining 75% provides access to Alberta and British Columbia supply basins. This diverse portfolio of natural gas transportation resources allows the Company to make natural gas procurement decisions based on the reliability and economics that provide the most benefit to our customers. Natural gas prices in the Pacific Northwest can be affected by global energy markets, as well as supply and demand factors in other regions of the United States and Canada. Price changes, combined with delivery constraints, may cause the source mix to vary. Illustration No. 1 below is a map showing our service Morehouse, Di 4 Avista Corporation territory, natural gas trading hubs, interstate pipelines, and the Jackson Prairie Natural Gas Storage Facility: Illustration No. 1 3 Future natural gas prices cannot be accurately predicted. Market conditions, analysis, and experience shape our overall procurement approach. The Company’s goal is to provide reliable 18 supply at competitive prices, with some level of price certainty, in a volatile commodity market. To that end, the Company utilizes a Procurement Plan which includes hedging (on both a short-term and long-term basis), storage utilization, and index purchases. This approach is diversified by Morehouse, Di 5 Avista Corporation transaction time, term, counterparty, and supply basin. The Procurement Plan is disciplined, yet flexible, and layers in fixed-price purchases over time and term to provide a level of price certainty to customers for a portion of the portfolio. A copy of the Company’s Natural Gas Procurement Plan is included as Company witness Mr. Kinney’s Exhibit No. 4, Confidential Schedule 2C, Avista’s Energy Resources Risk Policy. The Procurement Plan provides a process that fixes future natural gas prices for a targeted portion of the portfolio through the use of hedge windows. The hedge windows are “open” 10 for a predetermined time period and have upper and lower pricing levels which are determined by the market at the time the window becomes effective. In a rising market, this reduces exposure to extreme price spikes. In a declining market, it can facilitate locking in lower prices. These windows can be executed, or “closed”, if certain pricing levels are met, or 16 upon time expiration if no pricing events occur. The Company always maintains some level of discretion and may choose not to execute within a window or to change some aspect of a window given market conditions. The Natural Gas Supply Department monitors the results of the Procurement Plan, evolving market conditions, variation in demand profiles, new supply opportunities, and regulatory Morehouse, Di 6 Avista Corporation conditions. Although various windows and targets are established in the initial design phase of the portfolio, the plan provides flexibility to exercise judgment to revise and/or adjust the Procurement Plan in response to changing conditions. Material changes to the Procurement Plan are communicated to Avista’s Senior Management and Commission Staff. Q. What delivery period does the natural gas Procurement 7 Plan include? 8 A. The Procurement Plan includes the prompt six months and seasonal strips (November-March or April-October) for up to 36 months from the current month. 11 Q. Please describe the components of the natural gas 12 Procurement Plan. 13 A. Each year a comprehensive review of the previous year’s plan is performed. The review includes analysis of historical and forecasted market trends, fundamental market analysis, demand forecasting, transportation, storage and other resource considerations. The plan includes the following components: 1. Previous Year(s) Hedges – longer-term fixed-price purchases executed as a part of a previous year’s 21 Procurement Plan. 2. Current Period Hedges (Prompt – 36 months) – the portion of the portfolio addressed through the utilization of hedge windows. In each window, fixed price purchases are made for various prompt year Morehouse, Di 7 Avista Corporation delivery periods (i.e. November to March winter purchase, April to October summer purchase, or individual months). Prior to the execution of each window, market conditions, market knowledge, and other information are considered to determine if execution will occur. 3. Natural Gas Storage – utilization of the working gas capacity and deliverability of the Jackson Prairie Natural Gas Storage Facility (“JP”). With JP, Avista 10 is able to provide natural gas during peak load events during the higher demand winter months. Additionally, JP withdrawals can be executed during volatile daily gas price events. For less critical operational purposes, JP withdrawals and injections are frequently used to alleviate load imbalances on pipelines. In 2015, Avista deployed a new natural gas storage software model enabling Avista the opportunity to further optimize the working gas capacity. The model tracks the historical price spreads of various time frames for JP injections and withdrawals. This historical analysis quantifies the relative benefit of current forward prices and identifies optimal transactions to lock in more economic value than the traditional summer-winter spread. 27 4. Index Purchases – physical index-based natural gas purchases are procured prior to or throughout the delivery month. These purchases are usually associated with daily pricing. The majority of the amount of index purchases planned is the difference between the forecasted demand less the sum of previously executed hedges. Index purchases are also made as part of Avista’s natural gas storage management process throughout the year. This process is explained in greater detail in Section III. Q. Please describe how the Procurement Plan manages 38 volatility. 39 A. The Procurement Plan focuses on managing the costs associated with serving varying retail load with supply from a Morehouse, Di 8 Avista Corporation wholesale market with price volatility. In order to manage these seasonal, monthly and daily volume swings, Avista shapes the components of the Procurement Plan by month (i.e. more natural gas is hedged for the winter months than for the summer). Illustration No. 2 below includes a chart that shows the demand volatility: Illustration No. 2 7 8 Morehouse, Di 9 Avista Corporation Price volatility can also vary widely by season, month and day. Illustration No. 3, below, includes a chart depicting the natural gas price volatility over time: Illustration No. 3 4 5 Avista cannot predict with accuracy what natural gas prices will be. Our experience and intelligence related to market fundamentals guide our procurement decisions. By layering in fixed-price purchases over time, setting upper and lower pricing levels on the hedge windows, and actively managing storage resources, Avista is able to meet our goal of providing Morehouse, Di 10 Avista Corporation a meaningful measure of price stability and certainty, and competitive prices for our customers. III. JACKSON PRAIRIE 4 Q. Please describe Avista’s involvement with the Jackson 5 Prairie Natural Gas Storage Facility (JP). 6 A. Avista is one of the three original developers of the underground storage facility at JP, which is located near Chehalis, Washington. Although there have been corporate changes due to mergers, acquisitions and name changes, Avista, Puget Sound Energy (PSE) and Williams Northwest Pipeline each hold a one-third share (equal, undivided interest) of this underground gas storage facility through a joint ownership agreement. Puget Sound Energy is the operator of the facility. Q. What type of storage facility is JP? 15 A. JP is an underground aquifer storage facility. Storage and the associated withdrawal and injection capability has been created by a combination of wells, gathering pipelines, compression and dehydration equipment, and the removal and disposal of aquifer water. Q. Please describe the present level of storage that 21 Avista owns at JP. 22 A. At the present time, Avista Utilities owns a total of Morehouse, Di 11 Avista Corporation 8,528,013 dekatherms (Dth) of working gas capacity. This capacity comes with a withdrawal capability (deliverability) of 398,667 Dth per day. Jurisdictionally this amount is broken down as follows: Q. What are the benefits of storage to Avista’s 8 customers? 9 A. Access to regionally located storage provides several benefits to Avista’s customers. It enables the Company to 11 capture price spreads between time periods, improve reliability and flexibility of supply, mitigates peak demand price spikes, and numerous other economic benefits. 14 Avista utilizes a natural gas storage software model in order to capture seasonal price spreads for the benefit of natural gas customers. The model is governed by a storage management program that sets boundaries on injections and withdrawals as well as tracks real time market data to guide the purchase and sale of natural gas storage transactions. The program enforces storage constraints and requirements such as the storage fill schedule, peak day load requirements, transportation capacity limits, and deliverability constraints. Morehouse, Di 12 Avista Corporation The information within the model provides the Company’s 1 natural gas buyers the ability to identify additional opportunities to purchase lower cost natural gas in the immediate term for a sale in a future time period. For each storage purchase transaction, a corresponding forward sale is also made, locking in the benefit for our customers. Additional purchases and sales are made continuously as market conditions move into favorable conditions for each transaction. The effect of storage volumes will be that they are more frequently cycled in and out to take advantage of market conditions. It is important to note that JP will still be utilized to meet peak day needs, as well as to help mitigate daily price volatility. The benefits associated with locking in time-period spreads flow through to customers in the Company’s Purchase Gas 14 Adjustment (PGA) annual filings. IV. 2016 NATURAL GAS INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 17 Q. Please provide an overview of the Company’s 18 development of its 2016 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan. 19 A. The 2016 Integrated Resource Plan (“IRP”) was filed 20 with the Commission on August 31, 2016. The IRP includes forecasts of natural gas demand and any supply-side transportation resources and demand-side measures needed for Morehouse, Di 13 Avista Corporation the coming 20 years, which will help Avista continue to reliably provide natural gas to our customers. A copy of the Company’s 2 2016 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan is included as Exhibit No. 7, Schedule 1. Q. What are the summary highlights from the 2016 IRP? 5 A. Highlights from the 2016 IRP are as follows:  The Company has sufficient natural gas transportation resources well into the future with resource needs not occurring during the 20-year planning horizon in Idaho, Washington, or Oregon;  Natural Gas commodity prices continue to be relatively stable due to robust North American supplies led by shale gas development; and  As forecasted demand is relatively flat, the Company will monitor actual demand for signs of increased growth which could accelerate resource needs. Q. Has the Company’s 2016 Natural Gas IRP been 19 acknowledged by this Commission? 20 A. Yes. The Company’s 2016 IRP was acknowledged by the 21 Commission in Order No. 33720 on February 23, 2017. Q. When will the Company file its next natural gas IRP? 23 A. The Company will file its next natural gas IRP on or before August 31, 2018. A courtesy work plan will be filed in August 2017 detailing Avista’s IRP planning process as well as 26 tentative dates and content for meetings with the Technical Advisory Group (TAC). TAC meetings will begin in the first quarter of 2018. 29 Morehouse, Di 14 Avista Corporation Q. Does this complete your pre-filed direct testimony? 1 A. Yes, it does.