20141022Application.pdf

Avista Corp.
1411 East Mission P.O, Box3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-0500
Telephone [phone]
TollFree 8OO-727-917O
October 20,2014
Jean D. Jewell, Secretary
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
Statehouse Mail
W.472 Washington Street
Boise,Idaho 83720
RE: Case No. AVU-E-14-I I
Dear Ms. Jewell:
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Attached for filing with the Commission is an original and (7) seven copies o{ Avista
Corporation, doing business as Avista Utilities filing, in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and
32802, to update the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information components of
the incremental cost Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) avoided cost methodology.
Please direct any questions regarding this filing to James Gall at 509-495-2189.
Sincerely,
/5"*"L
Manager, Regulatory Policy
Avista Utilities
509-495-4975
linda. servais@avistacorp. com
Enclosure
DAVID J. MEYER
VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF COUNSEL FOR
REGULATORY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS
AVISTA CORPORATION
P.O.BOX3727
14I1 EAST MISSION AVENUE
SPOKANE, WASHINGTON 99220-37 27
TELEPHONE: (s09)495-4316
[e-mail]
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF AVISTA CORPORATION'S) CASE NO. AVU-E-t4-tt
ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE )
THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE )
INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED )
RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL )
AVISTA CORPORATION'S
COMPLIANCE FILING
I. INTRODUCTION
Avista Corporation, doing business as Avista Utilities (hereinafter Avista or
Company), at l4l1 East Mission Avenue, Spokane, Washington, respectfully submits to
the Idaho Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") this filing, in compliance with
Order Nos. 32697 and 32802, to update the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information components of the incremental cost Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
avoided cost methodology.
Communications in reference to this filing should be addressed to:
David J. Meyer, Esq.Linda Gervais
Vice President and Chief Counsel for Manager, Regulatory Policy
Regulatory and Govemmental Affairs Avista Corporation
Avista Corporation
P.O.Box372l
l4l I E. Mission Avenue, MSC-13
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
david. meyer@avi stacorp. com
P.O.Box3727
1411 E. Mission Avenue, MSC-27
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
Phone: [phone]
linda. [e-mail]
II. BACKGROUND
In its final Order No. 326971, the Co--ission determined that the inputs to the
IRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed Public Utility Regulatory
Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) qualifying (QF) projects that exceed the published rate
eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon acknowledgment of the utility's IRP
filing, with the exception of the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and QF contract
changes, which are to be updated annually. The date for the annual update was changed2
from June to October of each year.
' Order No. 32697 page22.
'OrderNo.32802 page3.
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III. LOAD FORECAST
The Company's most recent load forecast was developed in July, 2014 for energy
and September,2014 for peak. The recent energy load forecast shows, on average, a 0.6
percent annual average growth rate, down from 0.7 percent. The peak forecast growth
rate is unchanged at0.7 percent.
Table l: Peak and Energy Load Forecast
Year Energy
(aMw)
Summer
Peak
(MW)
Winter
Peak
(MW)
201s 1.068 1.568 1.704
2016 t.074 1.582 1.718
2017 1.084 1.596 t.73t
2018 1.091 1.610 1"744
2019 1,097 t.623 t.756
2020 1,103 1.635 r.768
2021 1,109 1.648 1.780
2022 l,ll4 1.661 1.792
2023 1,120 t.674 1,804
2024 1,126 1.686 1.816
2025 1,132 r"699 1,828
2026 1,138 1,713 1,840
2027 1.145 t.726 1.8s3
2028 1.t52 t.739 1.865
2029 1.158 1.753 1.878
2030 1.16s r,766 1,891
2031 1.t72 1,780 1,903
2032 1.t79 t.794 1.9t6
2033 1.186 1.808 1.929
2034 1.t92 t.822 r.942
203s 1.199 1.836 1.955
2lP age
IV. NATURAL GAS FORECAST
The Company's most recent Forward Price Curve was developed using the blend
of two national price forecasting consultants' most recent forecasts and forward market
prices as of October 7h,2014.
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Year
Henry Hub
($/mmbtu)
Stanfield
(S/mmbtu)
2015 s3.91 $3.72
20t6 $4.01 $3.7e
2017 s4.2s $4.03
201 8 s4.s8 $4.31
2019 $4.72 $4.4s
2020 $4.83 $4.s5
2021 $4.84 $4.ss
2022 $4.98 $4.70
2023 $s.29 s5.02
2024 $s.89 ss.67
2025 $6.20 $s.98
2026 $6.20 $s.98
2027 $6.1 3 $s.91
2028 $6.17 $6.01
2029 $6.40 $6.26
2030 s6.s0 $6.38
2031 s6.80 $6.70
2032 $6.98 $6.91
2033 $7.11 $7.0s
2034 s7.27 $7.19
2035 $7.63 $7.5s
Sources: CERA and Wood MacKenzie
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V. CONTRACT ADDITIONS AI\iD TERMINATIONS
Avista's signed one new long-term PPA, representing a four percent slice of
Chelan County PUD's Rocky Reach and Rock Island production for the 2015 calendar
year. The slice product is expected to add 64.5 MW of peak capacity for both summer
and winter peaks and add 35.4 aMW of energy. As of this filing date, the Company has
no additions or subtractions of PURPA resource contracts.
VI. REQUEST
Avista respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and
contract information in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and requests that
the Commission accept the same for filing.
DATED at Spokane, Washington, this 2l't day of October,2014.
AVISTA CORPORATION
",C 1/ -David J. Meyer
Vice President and Chief Counsel for
Regulatory and Governmental Affairs
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