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Home My WebLink About201001042009 IRP Appendices.pdfAppendix 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Appendix A – Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Presentations August 31, 2009 2009 Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 1 Agenda May 14, 2008 Topic Time Staff 1. Introduction 10:30 Vermillion 2. Load & Resource Balance Update 10:35 Gall 3. Climate Change Update 11:15 Lyons 4. Lunch 12:15 Special Guest - Steve Silkworth- update on renewable acquisitions 5. Loss of Load Probability Analysis 1:15 Gall 6. 2009 IRP Topic Discussions 2:00 Kalich • Work Plan • Analytical Process Changes • Other 7. Adjourn 3:30 Load and Resource Balance Forecast James Gall 2007 IRP L&R Review Capacity & Energy short beginning 2011 Load is expected to grow at 2.3% over the next 10 years, and 2.0% over the next twenty years Lancaster will be added to the utility’s portfolio beginning in 2010, pushing our deficit out to 2015 for capacity and 2017 for energy Lancaster Current L&R What’s Changed: Lancaster- 270 MW CCCT in Rathdrum, ID will be available Jan 1, 2010 Load- 10 year growth rate 1.9%, 20 year growth rate 1.8% for Peak and Energy. The 2010 forecast is 52 aMW lower than previous forecast or 4.4% lower, due to slow down in growth and implementation of conservation programs. Hydro- Uses 2006/07 Northwest Power Pool Headwater benefits study, mean energy is used versus median energy [-8 aMW] Misc- Updates to contracts, most from WNP-3 expected availability [+22 aMW] Annual Average Energy Position 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 aM W Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/ Cont. Annual Average Energy Position (exclude Q2) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 aM W Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/ Cont. Annual Position at System Peak 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 MW Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/PM, w/o Maint Washington State RPS (aMW) On-line Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Native Load (Excludes Potlatch) 1,012 1,034 1,053 1,074 1,094 1,121 1,153 1,177 1,194 1,211 1,233 1,253 WA State Load 659 674 686 700 713 730 751 767 778 789 803 816 Load 10% Change of Exceedance 28 29 29 30 30 31 32 33 33 34 34 35 Planning RPS Load 687 702 715 729 743 761 783 799 811 822 837 851 RPS % 0% 0% 0% 3% 3% 3% 3% 9% 9% 9% 9% 15% Required Renewable Energy 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.6 69.5 71.2 72.5 73.5 124.5 Current Qualifying Resources Stateline 1999 7.6 7.6 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long Lake 3 1999 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Little Falls 4 2001 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Cabinet 2 2004 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Cabinet 3 2001 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Cabinet 4 2007 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Apprentice Credits 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Hydro 10% Chance of Exceedance (4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1) Total Qualifying Resources 16.1 16.1 16.1 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 Net Requirement Need (Completed) 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.1 61.0 62.7 64.0 65.0 116.0 Budgeted Hydro Upgrades Noxon 1 2009 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Noxon 2 2010 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Noxon 3 2011 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Noxon 4 2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Little Falls 1 2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Little Falls 2 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Apprentice Credits 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Hydro 10% Chance of Exceedance (1.0)(1.4)(1.9)(2.4)(2.4)(2.4)(2.6)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8) Total Budgeted Hydro Upgrades 1.2.3.4.5 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.5.5.5.5. Net Requirement Need (Budgeted) 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.0 55.3 57.1 58.3 59.4 110.4 Climate Change Update John Lyons, Ph.D. 2 Climate Change Update ¾Federal GHG legislation – Overview of Lieberman-Warner Bill ¾EPA Analysis of Lieberman-Warner ¾EIA Analysis of Lieberman-Warner ¾Washington Greenhouse Gas Legislation ¾Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative 3 Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007 ¾Covers emissions of 10,000 mtco2 or greater ¾GHG Emissions Reduction Goals: 2012 – 2005 levels (5,775 mmtco2) 2020 – 15% below 2005 levels (4,924 mmtco2) 2030 – 35% below 2005 levels (3,860 mmtco2) 2040 – 50% below 2005 levels (2,796 mmtco2) 2050 – 70% below 2005 levels (1,732 mmtco2) 2007 total U.S. GHG emissions were about 6,000 mmtco2 4 Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007 ¾73.5% of allowances distributed for free in 2012 to 14 different groups, free allocations decrease over time ¾Allows unlimited banking and trading of allowance ¾Borrowing is from EPA is allowed with interest for up to 15% of obligations ¾30% of reductions can be offsets (15% domestic and 15% international) ¾Establishes a Carbon Market Efficiency Board to monitor and intervene in the carbon market 5 EPA Analysis of Lieberman-Warner ¾Reference Case ¾S. 2191 Scenario ¾S. 2191 Scenario with Low International Actions ¾S. 2191 Scenario Allowing Unlimited Offsets ¾S. 2191 Scenario with No Offsets ¾S. 2191 Constrained Nuclear and Biomass ¾S. 2191 Constrained Nuclear, Biomass, and CCS ¾S. 2191 Constrained Nuclear, Biomass, and CCS + Beyond Kyoto + Natural Gas Cartel ¾Alternative Reference Scenario ¾S. 2191 Alternative Reference Scenario 6 U.S. Carbon Footprint Projections 2015 – 2030 7 Federal Spending of Auctioned Credits ADAGE IGEM Category 2015 2030 2015 2030 Administration of S. 2191 (assumed to be 1% of auction revenues) 1.6 2.3 2.2 3.2 Zero or Low‐Carbon Energy Technologies Deployment 7.8 23.7 10.9 32.7 Advanced Coal and Sequestration Technologies Program 6.1 18.5 8.5 25.6 Fuel from Cellulosic Biomass Program 1.5 4.4 2.0 6.1 Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Program 2.9 8.9 4.1 12.3 Sustainable Energy Program 6.1 18.5 8.5 25.6 Energy Consumers 8.5 25.6 11.7 35.4 Climate Change Worker Training Program 2.4 7.1 3.3 9.8 Adaptation for Natural Resources in the U.S. and Territories 8.5 25.6 11.7 35.4 International Climate Change Adaptation and National Security Program 2.4 7.1 3.3 9.8 Emergency Firefighting Program 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Energy Independence Acceleration Fund 0.9 2.8 1.3 3.9 Total 49.9 145.7 68.7 201.0 ADAGE (Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy ‐ Ross 2007) IGEM (Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model ‐ Jorgenson 2007) 8 Value of Auctioned & Allocated Allowances ADAGE IGEM Category 2015 2030 2015 2030 Subtitile A ‐ Auctions (pre‐spent by Feds) 47.0 147.0 64.0 201.0 Subtitle B ‐ Early Action 3.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 Subtitle C ‐ States 18.0 26.0 24.0 35.0 Subtitle D ‐ Electricity Consumers 14.0 21.0 20.0 29.0 Subtitle E ‐ Natural Gas Consumers 3.0 5.0 4.0 6.0 Subtitle F ‐ Bonus Allowances for CCS 6.0 9.0 9.0 13.0 Subtitle G ‐ Domestic Ag/Forestry 8.0 12.0 11.0 16.0 Subtitle H ‐ International Forest Protection 4.0 6.0 5.0 8.0 Subtitle I ‐ Transition Assistance 54.0 6.0 74.0 9.0 Subtitle J ‐ Landfill / Coal Mine CH4 Allowance Set ‐ Asides 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 Total 159.0 234.0 217.0 320.0 net of customer "refunds" 142.0 208.0 193.0 285.0 customer refund % 11% 11% 11% 11% ADAGE (Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy ‐ Ross 2007) IGEM (Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model ‐ Jorgenson 2007) 9 EPA Analysis of U.S. Carbon Emission Cost ($/Metric Ton) 10 EPA Analysis Total U.S. Carbon Emission Cost ($billions) 11 EIA Analysis of Lieberman-Warner ¾Analysis included 7 cases ¾Reference Case ¾S. 2191 Core ¾No International Offsets Case ¾S. 2191 High Cost (CCS, Nuclear and biomass costs 50% higher than in the base case) ¾S. 2191 Limited Alternatives ¾S. 2191 Limited Alternatives / No International Offsets ¾S. 1766 Update (Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007) 12 EIA Analysis Results ¾As expected, impacts directly related to the availability and cost of low-carbon technologies such as CCS and nuclear, as well as the availability of international offsets ¾Results are also dependent upon the assessment of the current high commodity prices being permanent or temporary ¾Most reductions before 2030 are electricity-related ¾GDP reductions in the S. 2191 cases ¾2020: 0.3% to 0.9% ¾2030: 0.3% to 0.8% ¾Higher manufacturing impacts 13 EIA Analysis Results ¾Significant increases in new capacity because of early retirement of coal plants through 2030 ¾There are limited opportunities in the electric power industry after 2030 because the most GHG-intensive plants will have been retired, but population growth will require new generation ¾Delivered coal prices increase 405% to 804% in 2030 (2006$) ¾Natural gas prices increase 34% to 107% in 2030 (2006$) ¾Retail gasoline prices increase $0.41 to $1.01 in 2030 14 Washington State GHG legislation Washington state has three different laws that directly impact GHG emissions and electric resource planning: ¾Washington Energy Independence Act (I-937): 15% of new generation must be renewable by 2020 ¾SB 6001: Limits new base load generation to 1,100 pounds of CO2 per MWh ¾HB 2815: Sets GHG reductions goals for the state as part of the Western Climate Initiative 15 Washington HB 2815 Goals are set to meet Washington’s share of the Western Climate Initiative ¾2020 – Below 1990 levels ¾2035 – 25% below 1990 levels ¾2050 – 50% below 1990 levels ¾May 2008: Guidelines are expected to be released by Department of Ecology 16 Avista Generation Carbon Footprint (WRI-WBCSD Protocols, Selected Years 1990-2006) 17 Avista/WI Generation Carbon Footprint (millions of tons) - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 Avista CO2 Footprint Western Interconnect CO2 Footprint (factor 100) 18 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) ¾Begins January 1, 2009 ¾Memorandum of understanding signed in 2005 and includes 10 northeastern states ¾Caps CO2 emissions from all power plants greater than 25 MW ¾Emissions capped at 121 million short tons per year from 2009 through 2014 ¾2015 – 2019 emissions cap reduced by 10% ¾25% of allowances must be strategic or customer oriented in nature ¾Some offsets allowed – amount tied to allowance price ¾Quarterly auctions beginning in September 2008 with most states having 100% auctions Loss of Load Probability James Gall What is Loss of Load Probability? A measure of the probability that a system demand will exceed capacity during a given period; often expressed as the estimated number of days over a long period, frequently 10 years or the life of the system. -U.S. Department of Energy Our study is measured as # of draws where there was a loss of load, for example 1 in 20 draws, is 5%. LOLP Model Overview What is it? Estimates the probability that not all of load will be served in a given simulation Uses available capacity for a given week in January and August Simulates major random events, such as wind, hydro, load, and forced outages Used to validate planning margin in IRP forecast period What it is not? Energy dispatch model Financial costs are not considered No estimates for localized transmission/distribution outages Does not take into account natural disaster/terrorism related outages How It Works Runs for 168 continuous hours (7 days) in January & August 1)Load is estimated (-) 2)Available capacity from thermal resources (+) 3)Run of river hydro (+) 4)Wind shape calculated (+) 5)Contracts are netted (+/-) 6)Available storage hydro is shaped to high load hours (+) [LP] 7)Market energy purchased up to an assumed limit (+) [LP] 8)Federal hydro release from upstream storage (+) [LP] 9)If load is not served in one or more hours, loss of load occurs Load Uses actual 2007 hourly load shapes for January and August Each day an amount of energy is drawn, Correlated to previous day to simulate cold and hot snaps, Based on historic weekly energy shape, and Normal distributions are assumed 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 Hour MW Draw Expected Case Hydro Available energy is a random draw from 70 year historical record from the Northwest Power Pool Run-of-River projects use this energy shaped to historical flow Storage projects use a Linear Program (LP) to move hydro energy to more valuable hours subject to storage constraints and minimum and maximum capacity. Plants can spill energy, and draft reservoirs to minimum level Scenarios can be studied with/without federal hydro release from upstream storage to prevent load loss Wind Hourly shape based on expected mean energy and frequency distribution for on/off peak hours by month Hour to hour correlation Future enhancement will have projects correlated January: On-Peak 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Probability Ca p a c i t y F a c t o r Forced Outages For each plant: Forced Outage Rate (FOR) Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) Ramp Rate For each hour a unit has a probability of an outage, calculated as: Outage Probability = FOR x 8760 / MTTR / 52 e.g. 0.10 x 8760 / 24 / 52 = 70% chance of outage in the week or 0.42% in a given hour If an outage is drawn, another probability is calculated if the unit is to return to service, calculated as: Return to Service if: Rnd# > 1 / MTTR, than “on”, otherwise “off” If a unit has a ramp rate, such as 10 hours, the units available generation will increase linearly over 10 hours until it reaches maximum capability 2009 Results- Base Case 1,4921,656Average Peak Load 00Federal Hydro 300300Available Market (MW) 1,0811,319Average Load 2,0052,023Peak Load 55.6%47.6%Market Reliance 3.8%2.1%Loss of Load AugustJanuary How Many Iterations Do You Need? 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 1 50 1 10 0 1 15 0 1 20 0 1 25 0 1 30 0 1 35 0 1 40 0 1 45 0 1 50 0 1 55 0 1 60 0 1 65 0 1 January August 2009 Results- Scenario 1, Less Market Opportunity 200 MW (on-peak), 300 MW (off-peak) 1,4941,656Average Peak Load 00Federal Hydro 200200Available Market (MW) 1,0811,319Average Load 1,8412,053Peak Load 56.1%47.3%Market Reliance 12.1%7.4%Loss of Load AugustJanuary 2009 Results- Scenario 2, Increase Market Opportunity 400 MW of Market 1,4941,656Average Peak Load 00Federal Hydro 400400Available Market (MW) 1,0811,319Average Load 1,7622,026Peak Load 56.1%47.3%Market Reliance 0.9%0.4%Loss of Load AugustJanuary 2020 Results- Scenario 3, Potential Future 1,8492,048Average Peak Load 00Federal Hydro 300300Available Market (MW) 1,3381,631Average Load 2,2792,494Peak Load 19.6%41.7%Market Reliance 0.8%3.3%Loss of Load AugustJanuary Adds: Lancaster (270 MW), Reardan (50 MW), CCCT (200 MW), Wind (200 MW) 2020 Results- Scenario 4, All Wind Future 1,8482,048Average Peak Load 00Federal Hydro 300300Available Market (MW) 1,1381,629Average Load 2,1982,515Peak Load 51.8%73.5%Market Reliance 3.2%9.8%Loss of Load AugustJanuary Adds: Lancaster (270 MW), Reardan (50 MW), CCCT (0 MW), Wind (400 MW) 2020 Results- Scenario 5, Flat Wind Future 1,8512,047Average Peak Load 00Federal Hydro 300300Available Market (MW) 1,3391,630Average Load 2,2382,662Peak Load 39.0%65.7%Market Reliance 1.8%6.0%Loss of Load AugustJanuary Adds: Lancaster (270 MW), Reardan (50 MW), CCCT (0 MW), Wind (400 MW) 2009 Results- Scenario 6, 5% LOLP Case 1,4931,657Average Peak Load 00Federal Hydro 270235Available Market (MW) 1,0801,319Average Load 1,7801,992Peak Load 54.8%47.5%Market Reliance 5.1%4.9%Loss of Load AugustJanuary What it takes to stay at 5% LOLP for 2009 if remove 100MW of market availability Remove 100MW of Market: 15.1%/15.9% Add 100MW of CCCT: 5.0%/5.4% Add 300MW of Wind: 7.9%/11.1% Add 600MW of Wind: 6.0%/8.3% 2009 Results- Scenario 7, Federal Hydro 16 hrs 1,4931,657Average Peak Load 16 hrs16 hrsFederal Hydro 300300Available Market (MW) 1,0801,320Average Load 1,7852,025Peak Load 55.8%47.6%Market Reliance 0.0%0.1%Loss of Load AugustJanuary 2009 IRP Topic Discussions Clint Kalich Work Plan – Proposed TAC Meeting Schedule May 14, 2008 –Kickoff Meeting August 2008 –TBD October 2008 –TBD January 2009 –Review of final modeling and assumptions March 2009 –Review of scenarios and futures, resource, and transmission costs April 2009 –Review of final PRS June 2009 –Review of report Work Plan – Flow Diagram Resource Option Analysis Mark to market all generation and conservation opportunities Levelized Cost Calculation Conservation Costs AURORAXMP Base Case Expected Fuel Prices, Load, Transmission, Resources Develop Capacity Expansion for Western Interconnect Generate electric price forecast Intrinsic resource market valuation Preferred Resource Strategy Given constraints arrives at a least-cost solution defined in terms of present value of expected power supply expenses and risk, and generates an efficient frontier analysis. Model selects resources and conservation measures to meet capacity and energy deficits, greenhouse gas limits, and renewable & conservation portfolio standards Risk is defined as the variation in power supply expenses derived from stochastic studies Market Futures Stochastic Load, fuel price, hydro, wind generation, emissions, thermal forced outages. Market Scenario Deterministic Implicit market scenarios Separate capacity expansion for each scenario PRiSM 2.1 Work Plan – Timeline on IRP Development Preferred Resource Strategy Identify Regional resource options for electric market price forecast 8/15/2008 Identify Avista’s resource options 8/31/2008 Develop PRiSM 2.1 model & implement 9/15/2008 Update AURORAxmp database for electric market price forecast 9/30/2008 Select natural gas price forecast 10/10/2008 Finalize deterministic Base Case 10/17/2008 Create datasets/statistics variables for risk studies 10/31/2008 Base case risk study complete 11/30/2008 Develop Efficient Frontier & PRS 1/30/2009 Simulation of risk studies “futures” complete 1/30/2009 Simulate market scenarios in AURORAxmp 2/27/2009 Evaluate resource strategies against market futures & scenarios 3/20/2009 Present to TAC preliminary study and PRS 3/31/2009 Work Plan – Timeline on IRP Development Writing Tasks File 2009 Integrated Resource Planning Work Plan 8/30/2008 Prepare Report and Appendix Outline 9/15/2008 Prepare text drafts 4/15/2009 Prepare charts and tables 4/15/2009 Internal draft released 5/1/2009 External draft released 6/15/2009 Final editing and printing 8/1/2009 Report distribution 8/30/2009 Analytical Process Changes DSM Fully Integrated Into PRiSM Valuation, risk, selection PRiSM Improvements “Lumpiness” added Portfolio carbon limits Additional resource options Plant retirement New efficient frontier method (balancing risk and cost) End effects more accurately modeled Added AFUDC Market and green tag purchases risk Resource dispatch & valuation Evaluating options to AURORA (e.g., LP Model) Planning Futures/Scenarios More carbon looks Solar cost collapse Sustained high gas prices Lots of nuclear (government support/promotion) 25% RPS nationwide Back to the Future Determine cost of renewable energy & carbon legislation Other Ideas from TAC?? 2009 Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 2 Agenda August 27, 2008 Topic Time Staff 1. Introduction 10:30 Vermillion 2. Risk Assumptions/PRiSM 10:35 Gall 3. Resource Assumptions 11:30 Lyons 4. Lunch 12:15 5. Scenarios and Futures 1:15 Lyons 6. Demand Side Management 2:00 Powell 7. Adjourn 3:30 Stochastic Analysis & Resource Portfolio Selection Modeling James Gall 2 Presentation Overview Risk Discuss methods and risk assumptions, expected (mean) values will be discussed at later TAC meetings Variable correlations are difficult to quantify, recommendations are placeholders until better information is available or the TAC agrees the assumption is acceptable for modeling purposes Risk analysis is modeled in AURORA- impacts electric markets prices and the cost of new resource options Feedback and suggestions are needed PRiSM Overview of the model and enhancements Feedback and suggestions are welcome Stochastic Analysis Methods & Assumptions 4 Long-Term Correlation Matrix Lancaster 1.00-0.25-0.25Load Growth 1.000.50Hog Fuel Prices 1.00-0.25-0.25-0.25New Coal Prices 1.001.000.75SO2Prices 1.000.75NOXPrices 1.000.50CO2Prices 1.00Gas Prices Load Growth Hog Fuel Prices New Coal Prices SO2 Prices NOX Prices CO2 Prices Gas Prices 5 Carbon Dioxide Credit Prices (CO2, GHG) Similar method to 2007 IRP For each iteration, a potential carbon cost scenario is selected, based on a weighting of 10 EPA studies. After the scenario is selected, the cost is treated as an expected value and a lognormal distribution is applied to each year. Further, natural gas and other market price drivers are correlated to the CO2 prices The intent of this method is model the unknown nature of climate change legislation, it potential for year-to-year price volatility, and its affect on other major market price drivers. 6 Carbon Dioxide Credit Prices (nominal) 81.31 59.91 42.76 33.09 23.46 --Expected Value100% 47.69 28.66 20.63 17.37 10.20 --EPA S. 1766 ADAGE15% 109.34 85.97 61.89 46.75 35.00 --EPA S. 2191 Alt. Ref. IGEM5% 75.27 54.30 38.51 30.14 21.00 --EPA S. 2191 Alt. Ref. ADAGE35% 159.63 132.73 94.90 72.29 57.20 --EPA S. 2191 ADAGE Scenario 72% 119.07 95.02 67.39 51.85 39.70 --EPA S. 2191 ADAGE Scenario 63% 221.27 190.04 134.79 100.39 80.80 --EPA S. 2191 IGEM with No Offsets2% 47.69 28.66 20.63 16.09 8.70 --EPA S. 2191 IGEM Unlimited Offsets10% 88.25 66.36 48.14 36.53 26.20 --EPA S. 2191 ADAGE - Low Intl Action15% 122.3298.04 70.15 53.13 40.50 --EPA S. 2191 IGEM3% 94.74 72.40 50.89 39.08 28.60 --EPA S. 2191 ADAGE10% 2029202520202016201220112010Nominal $/ Short Ton% 7 Carbon Dioxide Credit Prices (Cont.) Randomly draws price strips for each AURORA iteration Each year has lognormal distribution (draw is the mean), market become less volatile over time as market matures 2012-2014 prices use 50% sigma 2015-2016 prices use 25% sigma 2017-2029 prices use 10% sigma 2012 Price Distribution 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $/ ShortTon Pr o b a b i l i t y 8 CO2 Price Trends (10 Simulations) $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r s h o r t t o n 9 Natural Gas Prices Lognormal distribution Correlated to CO2 credit prices (50% as placeholder), –Wood Mackenzie will help identify this assumption by studies that model gas prices by changes in gas demand from CO2 legislation Assumes 35% sigma before CO2 volatility is applied, than ~58- 70% Monthly prices may be correlated to load in the winter No direct annual serial correlation Load growth is negatively correlated at 25% 10 y = 0.1461x + 4.2886 R2 = 0.3481 $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 CO2 Prices ($/Short Ton) Na t u r a l G a s P r i c e s ( H H $ / D t h ) Modeled Natural Gas & CO2 Price Relationship Year 2015, Correlation 59%, 500 draws Expected Gas Price Ex p e c t e d C O 2 Pr i c e 11 Load Growth Normal distribution Standard deviation is equal to expected value, represents potential volatility due economic activity (perhaps too volatile) Energy load growth negatively correlated to gas (-25%), CO2 (-25%), Peak load variance modeled as weather variance Western Interconnect regional correlation between zones, similar to the 2007 IRP Potential correlation between natural gas prices in winter 12 2010 Distribution Example 0 20 40 60 80 100 -9.0% -6.0% -3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% Load Change Fr e q u e n c y 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Cu m u l a t i v e Frequency Cumulative % Avista Load Growth Example Avista Historic Load Growth -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 Ye a r o v e r Y e a r L o a d C h a n g e Avg Growth: 1.7% Stand Dev: 3% 13 Load Growth Example (Forecast- 5 draws) -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 19 9 0 19 9 2 19 9 4 19 9 6 19 9 8 20 0 0 20 0 2 20 0 4 20 0 6 20 0 8 20 1 0 20 1 2 20 1 4 20 1 6 20 1 8 20 2 0 20 2 2 20 2 4 20 2 6 20 2 8 Ye a r o v e r Y e a r L o a d C h a n g e 14 Hog Fuel (Wood Waste) Prices Normal distribution Standard deviation: 10% of expected value Positively correlated CO2 (50%) prices, –A higher CO2 price could add demand to Wood Prices to offset CO2 Potential correlation to load growth, but more likely correlated to on economic growth, while loads tend to have additional drivers What about correlating to natural gas prices 15 $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 Ga s ( $ / d t h ) , W o o d ( $ / T o n ) Sumas Gas Price KF Wood Kettle Falls Prices Compared to Sumas Gas Prices 92% Correlation A multiple regression including inflation & natural gas prices were tested to see if inflation was actually the cause for the correlation. The results indicated that Sumas gas prices was not a significant predictor of wood prices. Therefore natural gas will not be correlated to wood prices for this IRP. 16 Mine Mouth Coal Price Normal distribution Standard deviation: 10% of expected value Negatively correlated to CO2 (-25%), and other emissions (-25%) –As policy changes decreasing domestic coal demand, prices could potentially lower as coal mines remain open for international demand Basis for short and long-haul coal prices for new coal options- this should not affect market prices to any extent No change to existing coal prices for existing plants 17 NOX and SO2 Credit Prices Lognormal distribution Standard Deviation: 10% of expected values Expected values will be based on July 2008 Wood-Mackenzie study Positively correlated to CO2 prices (75%) –Stricter CO2 policy will likely lead to stricter air emissions policy and additional gas fired generation- requiring the needs for credits Negatively correlated to new coal prices (-25%) No mercury prices will be modeled in this IRP, rather controls will be assumed to be installed on required plants. 18 Hydro Each year of each iteration will randomly draw of historical 70 year history (1929-1998) No historical evidence of normality Mid Columbia Hydro Project Capacity Factor Distribution 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 33 % 35 % 37 % 39 % 41 % 43 % 45 % 47 % 49 % 51 % 53 % 55 % 57 % 59 % Capacity Factor Fr e q u e n c y 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Frequency Cumulative % 19 Wind Generic wind for existing projects will use fixed shape with distribution of energy- this is only used for market analysis. For potential Avista wind resources, each hour will be randomly drawn based on its probability of occurrence in a given month and time of day with correlation to previous hour. Statistics are available for potential projects on the Columbia River, Reardan, and Montana. Similar method was used in the 2007 IRP. Potential correlation to winter hydro conditions and will be evaluated 20 Forced Outages Use AURORA logic for random forced outages Only Coal, Nuclear, and CCCT plants will be modeled with F/O logic Mean Repair Times: –Nuclear: 84 hours –Coal: 72 hours –CCCT: 24 hours PRiSM Preferred Resource Strategy Model Overview & Enhancements 22 What is PRiSM? Preferred Resource Strategy Model –Selects resource & conservation opportunities on an optimal cost and risk basis using a linear program (What’s Best!) –What’s Best is a linear programming tool added to MS Excel Objective function is to either select resource strategies to meet our energy/capacity/market/RPS/CO2 requirements on a least cost or least risk basis Cost is measured by the present value of incremental fuel & O&M expenses and new capital investment Risk is measured by the variation in fuel & variable O&M expenses in years 2019 & 2029 (possible PV of 20 years) 23 Efficient Frontier- Introduction Ri s k Expected Return Stocks Bonds T-Bills 24 Efficient Frontier- Introduction Present Value of Cost Ma r k e t R i s k Nuclear CCCT Market/SCCT Wind 25 New Enhancements Conservation measures are selected in model rather than an input (only measures that are between $xx/MWh & $xxx/MWh) Resources are now added in increments rather than any amount Use more precise method to estimate frontier curve Meets both summer & winter capacity requirements Ability to retire resources Ability to account for greenhouse gas caps More accurate ability to take into account post IRP time period 2009 IRP Resource Assumptions John Lyons 2 Supply Side Resource Data Sources Resource lists developed internally –Trade journals –Press releases –Engineering studies and models (ThermoFlow) –Announcements from state commissions –International projects –Proposals from developers Power Council Consulting firms/reports: Wood Mackenzie, Goldman Sachs, Black & Veatch State and federal resource studies These data sources are used to develop generic resource types 3 Resource Differences from 2007 IRP Fewer types of coal resources are included – only ultra critical and IGCC plants are being modeled Alberta oil sands are not included as a resource option Solar and hydro are being included as resource options for the preferred resource strategy Adding more specifics for the Other Renewable Resources category – geothermal, biomass, and solar resources are being modeled separately 4 Non-Renewable Supply Side Resources Natural Gas Combined Cycle (CCCT) –2 x 1 and 1 x 1 with duct burner water cooled (1x1 for PRS) –2 x 1 and 1 x 1 with duct burner air cooled –600 MW with sequestration Natural Gas-Fired Simple Cycle – Aero, Frame, and Hybrid Small co-generation (< 5 MW) Pipeline co-generation Coal – ultra critical, IGCC, and IGCC with sequestration Nuclear 5 2008 Combined Cycle Total Installed Cost Estimate 2,000 Feet Elevation $400 $800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,000 $2,400 $2,800 $3,200 0 25 50 75 10 0 12 5 15 0 17 5 20 0 22 5 25 0 27 5 30 0 32 5 35 0 37 5 40 0 Elevation & Loss Adjusted Capacity (MW) In s t a l l e d C o s t s ( $ / k W ) Total Plant Installed Cost CC $/kW Installed Curve Fit 7FA 7FB 501F 501G Siemans SGT 6600G 6 2008 Simple Cycle Total Installed Cost Estimate 2,000 Feet Elevation $0 $400 $800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,000 0 25 50 75 10 0 12 5 15 0 17 5 20 0 22 5 25 0 27 5 Elevation and Loss Adjusted Capacity (MW) GT E q u i p m e n t O n l y a n d I n s t a l l e d Co s t s ( $ / k W ) Gas Turbine Equipment Only Cost Total GT $/kW Installed Cost LMS100 Gas Turbine Only Cost Total LMS 100 Installed Cost LMS 100 LM6000 P&W Swift Pac 50 7EA 7FA 7FB Siemans SGT6- 5000F 501 G 7 Renewable Supply Side Resources Geothermal Wind – 100 MW, < 5 MW, and offshore CCCT Wood Boiler Wood Gasification Conversion Open Loop Biomass – landfill gas, wood, waste, etc. Closed Loop Biomass Solar Photovoltaic Solar Thermal Roof Top Solar Tidal Power Hydrokinetics Run of River Hydro Pumped Storage 8 Avista Resource Upgrades Little Falls Unit #1 – 4 Upgrades Post Falls Unit #6 Upgrade Upper Falls Upgrade Long Lake new unit and new powerhouse Cabinet Gorge #5 Scheduled upgrades and acquisitions are included in the L&R –Noxon Rapids Units #1 – 4 scheduled for 2009 – 2012 –Lancaster Generation Facility – 2010 –Reardan – preliminarily scheduled for 2011 Avista 2009 IRP Resource Assumptions Draft as of 8/27/08 2009 Dollars Resource (not locational specific)First Year Available Availability (MW) Capital Cost- Exclude AFUDC (2009$/kW) Transmission Interconnect ($/kW)Construction (Yrs)Fixed O&M ($/kW/Yr) Net HHV Heat Rate(s) (Btu/kWh) Variable Costs ($/MWh) Gas Transport ($/Dth/Mn)Fuel Charge (%) Winter Capacity Credit (%) Summer Capacity Credit (%)Availability (%)Forced Outage (%) Annual Avg Maintenance (days)Min Dispatch (%)Start up Cost ($/MW/Start)Start up Fuel (Dth/MW/Start)Ramp Rate (%/hr)CO2 (lbs/mmbtu)SO2 (lbs/mmbtu NOX (lbs/mmbtu)Federal Incentives Sources/NotesCCCT (2x1) w/ duct burner (wet)2011 N/A 3 6,750/ 8,500 3.29 0.27 1.0 105 95 90.1 5 18 55 35 6.6 20 117 0.0006 0.02 No CCCT (2x1) w/ duct burner (dry)2011 N/A 3 6,900/ 8,700 3.29 0.27 1.0 105 95 90.1 5 18 55 35 6.6 20 117 0.0006 0.02 No CCCT (1x1) w/ duct burner (wet)2011 N/A 900 3 11.0 6,750/ 8,500 3.29 0.27 1.0 105 95 90.1 5 18 55 35 6.6 20 117 0.0006 0.02 No O&M: '08 CS2 Budget (LTSA/Major Maint is in VOM calculation), emissions based on CS2, Eng. Est. CCCT (1x1) w/ duct burner (dry)2011 N/A 928 3 11.0 6,900/ 8,700 3.29 0.27 1.0 105 95 90.1 5 18 55 35 6.6 20 117 0.0006 0.02 No Capital Cost Est from Thermoflex and HR based on CCCT (600MW, w/ Seq) 2025 N/A 0.27 1.0 105 95 90.1 5 18 11.7 0 0 No Small Co-Gen (<5MW) 2011 15 2,000 1.5 5.0 5,700 5.00 0.27 1.0 105 95 92.3 5 10 n/a n/a n/a n/a 117 0.0006 0.02 No Pipeline Co-Gen 2010 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a No Frame SCCT 2010 N/A 480 1.5 10,200 5.00 0 3.4 105 95 92.3 5 10 15 3.7 100 117 0.0006 0.02 No Thermoflex, NPCC Hybrid SCCT (LMS 100) 2010 N/A 900 1.5 8,400 5.00 0 3.4 105 95 92.3 5 10 100 117 0.0006 0.02 No Thermoflex, NPCC Wind (100MW)2010 500 2,400 2 50.0 n/a 3.00 n/a n/a TBD TBD 28-33 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a FULL PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Recent press, O&M from Uwe’s latest O & M Presentation Wind (<5MW)2010 10 3,000 2 n/a 3.00 n/a n/a TBD TBD 20.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a FULL PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Wind (Offshore)2018 100 5,000 95.0 n/a n/a n/a TBD TBD 45.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a FULL PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) PSE Assumption from Wind Developer Coal (Ultra Critical) 2019 N/A 3,000 8 38.0 8,825 1.30 n/a n/a 100 100 89.2 7 14 50 n/a n/a 8 205 0.12 0.07 No Black & Veatch (O&M), VOM Goldman Sachs, maint based on Colstrip Coal (IGCC)2022 N/A 3,600 8 41.0 8,130 4.00 n/a n/a 105 95 89.2 7 14 75 n/a n/a 4 205 0.03 0.15 No Black & Veatch (O&M), VOM Goldman Sachs, assumes extra gasifier Coal (IGCC w/ Seq) 2025 N/A 5,040 8 50.0 9,595 4.40 n/a n/a 100 100 88.3 7 17 75 n/a n/a 4 20.5 0.003 0.015 No Escalated rates from IGCC based on NPCC for O&M, capital 40% higher than IGCC Geothermal 2012 4,250 3 75.0 5.00 n/a n/a 110 90 93.4 5 6 n/a n/a n/a n/a 10 n/a n/a FULL PTC- 5 Yrs (End 2011) Capital Costs per Avg of Kitz & Public Renewable Partners, O&M per GS Study CCCT Wood Boiler 2012 20 2,500 3 121.0 10,500 6.00 n/a n/a 100 100 90.1 5 18 0 n/a n/a n/a 202 0.025 0.17 HALF PTC- 5 Yrs (End 2011) Emissions data per Kettle Falls & TD analysis Wood Gasification Conv. for CCCT DB 25 n/a n/a 100.0 n/a n/a n/a 202 HALF PTC- 5 Yrs (End 2011) Wood Gasification Conversion (KFCT)7 n/a n/a 100.0 n/a n/a n/a 202 HALF PTC- 5 Yrs (End 2011) Biomass Open Loop (landfill,wood,waste,etc)2011 5,000 2 n/a n/a 100 100 92.3 5 10 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 5 Yrs (End 2011) Black & Veatch (Capital) Biomass Closed Loop 2017 2 n/a n/a 100 100 92.3 5 10 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a FULL PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Solar Photovoltaic 2010 50 7,500 1 32.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 20.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 30% ITC (End 2011)Black & Veatch (Capital), O&M per Goldman Sachs Study Solar Thermal 2010 50 4,200 3 65.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 30.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 30% ITC (End 2011)Black & Veatch (Capital) O&M per Goldman Sachs Study Roof Top Solar 2010 50 8,000 0.5 30.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 15.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 30% ITC (End 2011)Kyocera Website, O&M per Goldman Sachs Study Nuclear 2022 500 5,500 10 97.0 10,400 0.55 n/a n/a 100 100 87.1 8 18 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a FULL PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Reports/Huron Consulting (Capex), Black & Veatch (O&M) Tidal Power 2018 2 10,000 1.5 1000.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 0 0 30.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a FULL PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Tidal Power Conference and CC fabricated based on range from conference Little Falls 1 Upgrade 2014 1.0 2,600 2 0.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 61.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Little Falls 2 Upgrade 2015 1.0 1,800 2 0.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 61.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Little Falls 3 Upgrade 2016 1.0 3,200 2 0.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 61.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Little Falls 4 Upgrade 2017 1.0 1,300 2 0.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 61.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Post Falls 6 Upgrade 2018 0.2 5,000 2 0.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 50.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Upper Falls Upgrade 2019 2.0 3,500 3 0.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 90.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Long Lake 5 Addition 2020 24.0 2,167 5 1.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 30.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Long Lake 2nd Powerhouse 2020 60.0 2,000 6 2.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 2.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Cabinet Gorge Unit 5 2016 60.0 1,417 5 2.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 12.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Pumped Storage 2020 25 5,000 8 5.0 n/a Off-Peak Market n/a n/a 100 100 50.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a No Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Hydrokinetics 2014 5 4,000 3 3.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 75.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate Run of River Hydro 2020 N/A 4,500 5 2.0 n/a 0.00 n/a n/a 100 100 30.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a HALF PTC- 10 Yrs (end 2011) Avista Engineering Preliminary Estimate DRAFT Scenarios and Futures John Lyons 2 Uses of Scenarios and Futures Provide details about impacts and size of impacts of different assumptions Avista’s current load and resource portfolio Preferred Resource Strategy Wholesale electric market Different resource options 3 Market Scenarios Starts with the Base Case assuming expected conditions Hydro Load Gas prices Wind Emissions prices Forced outages Scenarios study the effects of fundamental changes to a driving force in the forecast Scenarios have quicker solution times and provide more understandable results due to the limited change in variables Used to test portfolio sensitivities 4 Market Futures A future is a stochastic or random study using Monte Carlo style analysis for risk quantification Multiple iterations provide a shape and boundaries to potential costs Avista’s modeling process looks 21 years into the future with several hundred draws of hydro, load, wind, fuel prices, emissions costs, and thermal forced outage values Futures can quantitatively assess market risk Use a large amount of computational power for each future Results are sometimes difficult to understand because of the sheer number of variables 5 2009 IRP Market Futures Base Case:uses expected hydro, wind, load, fuel costs, and emissions costs Unconstrained Carbon:quantifies CO2 emissions costs High CO2 Costs: higher expected value of CO2 emissions costs Volatile Fuel: increase natural gas price volatility 6 2009 IRP Market Scenarios High and Low Gas Prices: 50% higher and 50% lower prices CO2 and Natural Gas:different levels of linkage between CO2 and natural gas prices High and Low Load Growth Electric Car:high penetration of electric cars Constant Gas Growth: No downward trend in near term gas prices Unconstrained Carbon Costs: zero carbon costs High Carbon Costs: significantly higher than the Base Case Nuclear:significant new nuclear in the Western Interconnect Buck-a-Watt Solar:drastic decrease in photovoltaic solar costs 7 2009 IRP Portfolio Options Efficient frontier No Resource Additions –market reliance All CT –with and without green tags All CCCT –with and without green tags Fixed Gas –with and without All Renewables Wind and CT Nuclear –available in 2020 Coal –available in 2018 2007 IRP Others? 8 New Scenario Approach Previous slides show Avista’s past approach to scenarios and futures This approach is difficult to use to adjust our resource strategy Moving towards a smaller number of scenarios, where each scenario represents a fundamentally different future with its own assumptions Scenario matrix with the economy and environmental concerns 1. Base Case –center of the matrix 2. Quadrant 1 –Economic Boom and Weak Environmental 3. Quadrant 2 –Economic Boom and Strong Environmental 4. Quadrant 3 –Economic Bust and Weak Environmental 5. Quadrant 4 –Economic Bust and Strong Environmental 9 Scenario Matrix – Environmental Regulation and Economics Weak Environmental Strong Environmental Economic Boom Economic Bust Quadrant 1 Quadrant 4 Quadrant 2 Quadrant 3 10 Potential Scenario Drivers Economic –inflation, load, commodities, and market developments Environmental –carbon costs, RPS, and competition for renewables Political –structure of carbon market Social –views of environmental issues and response of customers to rate pressure Technological –help or hindrance, new technologies, and electric cars Organizational –business as usual, new ways of doing things Demand-Side Management in the 2009 Electric IRP Jon Powell 1 DSM / IRP Objectives Opportunity to perform a comprehensive overview of electric resource opportunities and strategy on a level playing field 2 DSM Challenges in the IRP IRP results must be actionable to be meaningful The IRP must provide the basis for continual evaluation of DSM opportunities between IRP cycles “Normal” technical challenges of assessing DSM resources within the IRP 3 How Avista Addresses Challenges The biennial high-level IRP process is augmented with an annual detailed DSM business plan Our tariffs are reasonably flexible in the short-term; even more flexible in the long-term The IRP avoided cost stream forms the basis for intra-IRP DSM resource analysis and cost-effectiveness 4 Annual DSM Business Plan Establishes a corporate budget Allows for the detailed review of DSM opportunities Considers the packaging of measures Establishes a high-level program plan for promising measures: –Infrastructure requirements (labor and non-labor) –Outreach requirements (brochures, paid and free media, etc) –Establishes critical trade allies relationships (including potential regional cooperative efforts) Program trigger points are established Plan for the M&E necessary for program management and external reporting Calculate prospective cost-effectiveness (program and portfolio) 5 DSM Tariffs and Operations Tariffs can, and have, changed to meet resource acquisition needs DSM operations governed by Schedule 90 and funded by Schedule 91 Tariffs allow for the inclusion of any measure into the DSM portfolio Four basic portfolio’s within Avista’s DSM operations 1. Non-Residential – mix of “site-specific” and prescriptive programs 2. Residential – exclusively prescriptive programs 3. Residential Limited Income – any measure cooperating with CAP agencies 4. Regional – NEEA’s market transformation portfolio 6 Avista's Incentive Tiers 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Months Simple Payback ce n t s / 1 s t y r k W h Lighting Non-Lighting 7 Electric Avoided Costs Price is an efficient means of signaling resource scarcity Avoided cost composed of: –Commodity avoided cost ($/kWh) –Distribution losses ($/kWh) –Carbon cost ($/kWh) –Value of risk reduction ($/kWh) –Generation capacity ($/kW) –T&D capacity ($/kW) Demand-Side Management in the 2009 Electric IRP Lori Hermanson 1 Integration of DSM into the 2009 IRP Interactive process that meets regulatory requirements and produces results for the business planning process. Identify commercially available non-residential technologies and applications –“Acceptance” or “rejection” within the IRP will not remove any technology or application from potentially being included in our non-residential portfolio –Almost 2,500 measures being evaluated for the 2009 IRP Re-evaluate existing residential measures and evaluate the inclusion of additional measures –May change the menu of qualifying residential measures. –Nearly 800 measures being evaluated for 2009 2 Integration of DSM into the 2009 IRP Inclusion of Limited Income and Non-Residential Site Specific programs are done by modifying the historical baseline –Not necessarily limited to modifying baseline for price elasticity and load growth Improvements in estimating Site Specific programs –Identified the largest portion of Site Specific programs and are trying to make them more generic in nature –Can process more Non-Residential programs through the entire IRP process as opposed to modifying a historical base 3 Assess market characteristics & past program results Preliminary cost- effectiveness evaluation "Red""Yellow""Green"Terminate Specify as "must take" for PRiSM Characterize for interactive evaluation within AURORA/PRiSM Yellow - fail Yellow - Pass Review existing DSM business plan Additional analysis of programs as necessary Development of a revised DSM business plan Initiate new programs. Continue, modify or terminate existing programs per business plan Develop energy savings, system coincident peak, load shapes, NEB's, measure lives Develop cost characteristics Identify potential measures Develop technical and economic potential DSM acquisition goal Business Plan acquisition goal Outside of the Scope of the Integrated Resource Planning Process Represented within the Integrated Resource Planning Process 4 Categories of Savings and Benefits Obtain savings, system coincident peak savings, incremental customer cost, non-energy benefits and life of each measure –Used to calculate a levelized sub-TRC cost –Sorted based on results into “reds,” “yellows” and “greens” –Band of “yellow” energy only measures to be tested in AURORA is projected to be $70-150/MWh –PRiSM automatically selects “greens” –Remainder of need is selected from passing “yellows” –Establishes the 2009 DSM acquisition goal 5 Integration of DSM into the 2009 IRP Last year was the first focus on deferring summer space cooling-driven load –Load profiles were assigned to each measure –Measures categorized by impact to cooling load •Zero impact – measures received no additional value regardless of their load profile •Non-Drivers – measures unrelated to space cooling but contribute to system load during a cooling-driven peak receive a capacity value based upon the average demand of their specific load profile during peak periods 6 Space Cooling Drivers – measures that drive a space cooling peak received a capacity valuation based upon the maximum hourly demand for that load profile Improving method of addressing the space cooling driven peak –Using the Council’s system coincident peak estimates –Measures with capacity savings will be tested in PRiSM against the avoided costs inclusive of risk and capacity –PRiSM will select measures and they will be incorporated into the final DSM acquisition goal 7 Incorporating DSM in the 2009 IRP Integration by Price Signal AURORA Resource Stacks WECC Supply-side Resources + DSM Energy Only Supply Curves Deferrable Resource Avoided Cost DSM Department Acquires Resource Decrement Deferrable Resource by Amount of DSM PRiSM Adds Risk and Capacity DSM with Capacity Savings 8 What Works – What Doesn’t DSM is acquired in small annual amounts relative to the overall load requirement –“Snowballing” effect over time Historically Avista’s DSM has been non-dispatchable –Demand Response pilot –When enough data is available, modifications to this existing process may need to be made to accommodate demand response technologies and applications Allows continuous modification and testing of new opportunities between IRPs in a consistent manner Avista’s 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 3 Agenda October 22, 2008 Topic Time Staff 1. Introduction 10:30 Vermillion 2. Load Forecast 10:35 Barcus 3. Lunch 11:45 4. Natural Gas Price Forecast 12:30 Rahn 5. Electric Price Forecast 1:30 Gall 6. Legislative Update 2:30 Sprague 7. Adjourn 3:30 F2009 Sales and Load Forecast July 21, 2008 Operations Council Meeting Randy Barcus Edited for 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Third Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 22, 2008 Summary of Results Electricity Sales Forecast 2009 Forecast 9,138 million kWh 2009 in F2008 9,134 million kWh 5 Year Growth Rate 2009-2014 +1.8% 10 Year Growth Rate 2009-2019 +1.7% 20 Year Growth Rate 2009-2029 +1.7% Last Year 20 Yr. GR 2009-2029 +1.8% Natural Gas Firm Sales Forecast 2009 Firm Forecast 338.5 million therms 2009 in F2008 352.0 million therms 5 Year Growth Rate 2009-2014 - Washington -0.2% - Idaho +1.0% - Oregon +0.8% - System +0.3% 10 Year GR System +0.9% 20 Year GR System +1.3% 20 Year Customer GR +2.5% 2 Significant Assumptions Economy—slower growth in near term, returns to trend Tight credit, housing bubble, but strong commodity prices for agriculture and metals Regional economy returns to long term trend in 2012 Avista Retail Prices Electric prices increase 10% in 2009 and thereafter until 2015, and at inflation plus real income growth thereafter Natural gas prices increase 20% in 2009 and 10% thereafter until 2015, and at inflation plus real income growth thereafter Carbon taxes are included in the 2012-2015 price increases Global Warming Degree Days 2009 Heating and Cooling at NOAA Normal (1971-2000 avg.) 2010-2019 ramps to trend, 2020-2029 on trend 3 3a http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php Winter will be much colder and drier than normal, on average, with snowfall above normal in the north and below normal in the south. The coldest temperatures will occur in late December; early, mid-, and late January; and early February. The snowiest periods will be in mid- November, early and mid-December, mid- and late January, and late February. April and May will be cooler than normal, with slightly above-normal precipitation. Summer will be cooler than normal, with slightly above-normal rainfall. The hottest periods will be in mid- and late June and early and mid- to late July. September and October will be warmer and drier than normal. Intermountain Annual Weather Summary November 2008 to October 2009 3b http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/13 Other Assumptions DSM and Conservation—included in forecast at new levels Multi-Family Natural Gas—assuming successful penetration Inland Empire Paper—12 average MW added load in 2010 Mining Loads—continued high silver prices lead to modest growth Lumber Loads—low levels through 2009, some bounce in 2010 Plug-In Hybrid Cars—included in forecast Other implicit assumptions Housing mix 40% single family, 30% condo/townhome, 30% multifamily rentalAverage new construction size is 30% larger than present averageGrowing plug loads (largely digital TV’s) offset Energy Star savings The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 contains provisions that significantly impact electricity use, particularly residential lighting usage, over the next 5 to 10 years. The key lighting-related provisions that related to energy forecasters are: – Incandescent Light Bulb Standard. Requires roughly 25 percent greater efficiency for light bulbs, phased in from 2012 through 2014. This effectively bans the sale of most current incandescent light bulbs. The initial targets will be met by advanced incandescent lamps, which the major manufacturers are just introducing to the market, using halogen capsules with infrared reflective coatings. The longer-term targets will likely be met by compact fluorescent lamps and other advanced technologies, such as light emitting diodes and very advanced incandescent lamps now in development. – Lighting Efficiency Standard. Requires a minimum 45 lumens/watt efficiency standard for general service lamps by 2020. – Federal Building Lighting Standard. Requires that all lighting in Federal buildings use Energy Star products. The Energy Information Administration’s 2008 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) forecast provides insight into the impact that these provisions will have on residential lighting use. The 2008 Residential AEO forecast projects that lighting’s share of total residential electricity usage will drop from 14.4% in 2011, the year before the incandescent light bulb standard takes place, to 10.7% in 2016. Over this five year period, lighting’s share of electricity usage is projected to drop by approximately 25%. The long-run effect of the lighting standards on residential electricity usage is to decrease residential lighting share of usage to 8.3% by 2030, a reduction of over 40% from its 2011 level of 14.4%. 4 2008 Forecast Residential New Construction Kootenai & Spokane County Combined 3,520 3,4433,266 6,082 4,710 3,763 5, 6 0 0 5, 4 0 0 5, 6 0 0 5, 7 0 0 6, 1 0 0 2, 7 0 0 2, 9 0 0 4, 5 0 0 5, 2 0 0 5, 7 0 0 6, 0 0 0 6, 1 0 0 6, 2 0 0 6, 2 0 0 6, 2 0 0 6, 2 0 0 6, 1 0 0 6, 0 0 0 3,585 3,501 2,472 2,768 2,800 4,282 5,617 5, 4 0 0 6, 0 0 0 6, 1 0 0 5, 6 0 0 5, 0 0 0 4, 7 1 0 6, 0 0 0 5, 5 0 0 6, 0 0 0 6, 2 0 0 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 Re s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g P e r m i t s Actual 2007 Forecast 2008r Forecast 5 Spokane NWS Global Warming Degree Day Trends 2007-2038 95 . 2 % 95 . 0 % 94 . 7 % 94 . 4 % 94 . 1 % 93 . 9 % 93 . 6 % 93 . 3 % 93 . 1 % 92 . 8 % 92 . 5 % 92 . 2 % 92 . 0 % 91 . 7 % 91 . 4 % 91 . 1 % 90 . 9 % 90 . 6 % 90 . 3 % 90 . 1 % 89 . 8 % 89 . 5 % 89 . 2 % 89 . 0 % 88 . 7 % 88 . 4 % 88 . 1 % 87 . 9 % 87 . 6 % 87 . 3 % 87 . 1 % 86 . 8 % 10 9 . 5 % 11 0 . 8 % 11 2 . 0 % 11 3 . 3 % 11 4 . 6 % 11 5 . 8 % 11 7 . 1 % 11 8 . 3 % 11 9 . 6 % 12 0 . 9 % 12 2 . 1 % 12 3 . 4 % 12 4 . 6 % 12 5 . 9 % 12 7 . 2 % 12 8 . 4 % 12 9 . 7 % 13 0 . 9 % 13 2 . 2 % 13 3 . 5 % 13 4 . 7 % 13 6 . 0 % 13 7 . 2 % 13 8 . 5 % 13 9 . 8 % 14 1 . 0 % 14 2 . 3 % 14 3 . 5 % 14 4 . 8 % 14 6 . 1 % 14 7 . 3 % 14 8 . 6 % 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 20 3 1 20 3 2 20 3 3 20 3 4 20 3 5 20 3 6 20 3 7 20 3 8 Heating Degree Days Cooling Degree Days 6 7 Electric Average Use per Average Customer y = -42x + 12175 y = 183x + 79577 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 An n u a l k W h R e s i d e n t i a l 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 An n u a l k W h C o m m e r c i a l Residential Commercial Linear (Residential)Linear (Commercial) Global Warming Impact Normal minus Warming HDD and CDD (4,500,000) (3,500,000) (2,500,000) (1,500,000) (500,000) 500,000 1,500,000 Ja n - 0 9 Ma r - 0 9 Ma y - 0 9 Ju l - 0 9 Se p - 0 9 No v - 0 9 Ja n - 1 0 Ma r - 1 0 Ma y - 1 0 Ju l - 1 0 Se p - 1 0 No v - 1 0 Ja n - 1 1 Ma r - 1 1 Ma y - 1 1 Ju l - 1 1 Se p - 1 1 No v - 1 1 kW h Residential Commercial Industrial System Total 8 MW Difference Normal minus Warming HDD & CDD0.0 -0.6 -1.9 -2.7 -3.5 -4.3 -5.2 -6.1 -7.0 -7.9 -8.9 -9.3 -9.8 -10.3 -10.7 -11.2 -11.7 -12.3 -12.8 -13.3 -13.8 -14.4 -16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 20 0 9 20 1 1 20 1 3 20 1 5 20 1 7 20 1 9 20 2 1 20 2 3 20 2 5 20 2 7 20 2 9 Av e r a g e M W 9 Electric Sales Forecast Base w/ GW vs. Normal Weather 7,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 11,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 13,000,000,000 14,000,000,000 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 an n u a l k W h Electric Base Electric Normal Compound Growth Rates 2009-2029 Base 1.68% 2009-2029 Normal 1.73% Reduction in avg MW 2019 9 2029 14 10 11 Avista Residential by Schedule Therm Use Per Customer 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 An n u a l T h e r m s WN WA Res Sch 101 UPC WN ID Res Sch 101 UPC Oregon Residential UPC WA-ID & Oregon Natural Gas Base w/GW vs. Normal Weather 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 400,000,000 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 an n u a l t h e r m s WA-ID Total Base WA-ID Total Normal Oregon Firm Base Oregon Firm Normal Compound Growth Rates 2009-2029 Base 1.18% 2009-2029 Normal 1.83% Compound Growth Rates 2009-2029 Base 1.67% 2009-2029 Normal 2.15% 13 Avista Electric Service Area Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Forecast 12 Market Share Hybrid Vehicles Served Incremental Sales of Hybrid Vehicles kWh Energy Consumption Average MW Base Case Residential Sales Forecast Cumulative Percent Boost to Residential Residential Sales with Hybrid Vehicles 2010 3.5% 1,000 1,000 2,500,000 0.3 3,761,638,997 0.1% 3,764,138,997 2011 6.0% 2,000 1,000 5,000,000 0.6 3,788,118,462 0.1% 3,793,118,462 2012 8.5% 3,500 1,500 8,750,000 1.0 3,842,900,187 0.2% 3,851,650,187 2013 11.0% 5,500 2,000 13,750,000 1.6 3,893,034,524 0.4% 3,906,784,524 2014 14.0% 8,000 2,500 20,000,000 2.3 3,941,757,508 0.5% 3,961,757,508 2015 18.0% 11,000 3,000 27,500,000 3.1 3,988,061,420 0.7% 4,015,561,420 2016 24.0% 15,000 4,000 37,500,000 4.3 4,034,409,825 0.9% 4,071,909,825 2017 26.0% 20,000 5,000 50,000,000 5.7 4,079,468,146 1.2% 4,129,468,146 2018 26.0% 25,000 5,000 62,500,000 7.1 4,123,323,408 1.5% 4,185,823,408 2019 26.0% 30,000 5,000 75,000,000 8.6 4,167,601,524 1.8% 4,242,601,524 2020 26.0% 35,000 5,000 87,500,000 10.0 4,215,588,573 2.1% 4,303,088,573 2021 26.0% 40,000 5,000 100,000,000 11.4 4,261,378,267 2.3% 4,361,378,267 2022 26.0% 45,000 5,000 112,500,000 12.8 4,306,622,849 2.6% 4,419,122,849 2023 26.0% 50,000 5,000 125,000,000 14.3 4,351,888,063 2.9% 4,476,888,063 2024 26.0% 55,000 5,000 137,500,000 15.7 4,396,064,205 3.1% 4,533,564,205 2025 26.0% 60,000 5,000 150,000,000 17.1 4,439,711,711 3.4% 4,589,711,711 2026 26.0% 65,000 5,000 162,500,000 18.6 4,481,771,729 3.6% 4,644,271,729 2027 26.0% 70,000 5,000 175,000,000 20.0 4,523,907,789 3.9% 4,698,907,789 2028 26.0% 75,000 5,000 187,500,000 21.4 4,564,967,067 4.1% 4,752,467,067 2029 26.0% 80,000 5,000 200,000,000 22.8 4,605,531,184 4.3% 4,805,531,184 2030 26.0% 85,000 5,000 212,500,000 24.3 4,645,605,390 4.6% 4,858,105,390 2,500 kWh per car 80% WA 20% ID 2010-2030 CGR 1.06%1.28% 14 2009 ELECTRIC RETAIL SALES FORECAST 0 1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 11,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 calendar year Potlatch Generation Street Lights Industrial Commercial Residential 2009-2019 growth rate = 1.75%, 2009-2029 growth rate =1.68% 15 Load Growth Comparisons (plug-in hybrid car consumption is included) 5,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 11,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 13,000,000,000 14,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 F2009 F2008 F2007 F2006 Growth Rates 2005-2025 F2006 2.36% F2007 2.14% F2008 1.85% F2009 1.72% Growth Rates 2009-2029 F2006 n/a F2007 1.83% F2008 1.83% F2009 1.68% 16 Net Native Load with Potlatch, with Electric Cars 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 19 9 7 19 9 9 20 0 1 20 0 3 20 0 5 20 0 7 20 0 9 20 1 1 20 1 3 20 1 5 20 1 7 20 1 9 20 2 1 20 2 3 20 2 5 20 2 7 20 2 9 Av e r a g e M W i n c l u d i n g l o s s e s F2009 F2008 F2007IRP F2006 F2005 F2004 F2009 929 954 989 1,013 965 995 1,013 1,021 1,046 1,069 1,088 1,113 1,119 1,148 1,171 1,188 1,202 1,222 1,252 1,270 1,289 1,311 1,329 1,347 1,367 1,386 1,405 1,428 1,452 1,491 1,511 1,533 1,553 1,573 F2008 1,087 1,104 1,118 1,141 1,161 1,182 1,202 1,229 1,274 1,299 1,316 1,333 1,356 1,376 1,401 1,416 1,434 1,466 1,489 1,541 1,556 1,577 1,604 1,627 F2007IRP 1,091 1,124 1,163 1,196 1,229 1,255 1,274 1,306 1,325 1,358 1,379 1,399 1,426 1,449 1,477 1,497 1,518 1,556 1,582 1,606 1,626 1,646 1,674 1,699 F2006 1,043 1,086 1,122 1,159 1,198 1,232 1,270 1,299 1,327 1,360 1,388 1,417 1,440 1,461 1,491 1,516 1,545 1,566 1,590 1,619 1,643 F2005 1,029 1,067 1,099 1,122 1,152 1,185 1,215 1,246 1,270 1,296 1,323 1,354 1,379 1,395 1,417 1,447 1,472 1,499 1,517 1,549 1,577 1,605 F2004 1,000 1,035 1,061 1,085 1,109 1,135 1,164 1,196 1,225 1,247 1,270 1,293 1,327 1,356 1,384 1,412 1,444 1,474 1,509 1,546 1,585 1,625 1,667 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Forecast 2009-2019 Actual 1997-2007 2008 is 6 months actual, 6 months forecast Growth Rates 5 yr=1.8%, 10 yr=1.8%, 20 yr=1.7% 17 Calendar Year, January & July Peak Demands Megawatts 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 Jan 1,508 1,575 1,357 1,458 1,474 1,388 1,393 1,766 1,563 1,475 1,685 1,705 1,739 1,779 1,812 1,839 1,862 1,893 1,937 1,967 1,998 2,033 2,062 2,091 2,124 2,154 2,185 2,222 2,261 2,320 2,352 2,387 2,419 2,452 Jul 1,202 1,521 1,405 1,454 1,382 1,457 1,487 1,477 1,495 1,642 1,629 1,619 1,628 1,667 1,699 1,720 1,737 1,761 1,796 1,818 1,842 1,867 1,889 1,912 1,936 1,959 1,982 2,010 2,039 2,085 2,109 2,135 2,160 2,185 Calendar 1,508 1,663 1,434 1,561 1,490 1,457 1,509 1,766 1,660 1,656 1,685 1,733 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Actual 1997-2007+ Forecast 2009-2019 Growth rates 5 yr=1.7%, 10 yr=1.7%, 20yr=1.7% Peak Load Planning •Winter based on average coldest day •Summer based on average hottest day Data from 1890 to 2007 Temp HDD Average Coldest Day (December & January)11.7 53.3 Standard Deviation 10.2 5% chance of exceedance 1.645 16.779 -5.1 70.1 1% chance of exceedance 2.330 23.766 -12.1 77.1 0.25% chance of exceedance 2.814 28.7 -17.0 82.0 Data from 1890 to 2007 Temp CDD Average Hottest Day (July & August)80.0 15.0 Standard Deviation 3.405 5% chance of exceedance 1.645 5.601 85.6 20.6 1% chance of exceedance 2.330 7.933 87.9 22.9 0.16% chance of exceedance 2.950 10.0 90.0 25.0 18 19 Peak Demand Trends Actual Monthly Peaks through June 2008 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Questions & Answers 20 Natural Gas Price Forecast Greg Rahn, Manager Natural Gas Planning James Gall, Senior Power Supply Analyst 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Third Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 22, 2008 2 US Supply Growth Forecast through 2015 3 Source: Wood Mackenzie Generation Forecasted to Lead National Demand for Natural Gas ActualActual 4 Regional Natural Gas Demand Forecast Source: Northwest Gas Association 5 Interstate Pipeline Flow 6 Shale Gas Plays Source: Wood Mackenzie 7 Henry Hub Short Term Price Forecasts $3.00 $5.00 $7.00 $9.00 $11.00 $13.00 $15.00 Ja n - 0 8 Ma r - 0 8 Ma y - 0 8 Ju l - 0 8 Se p - 0 8 No v - 0 8 Ja n - 0 9 Ma r - 0 9 Ma y - 0 9 Ju l - 0 9 Se p - 0 9 No v - 0 9 Ja n - 1 0 Ma r - 1 0 Ma y - 1 0 Ju l - 1 0 Se p - 1 0 No v - 1 0 Ja n - 1 1 Ma r - 1 1 Ma y - 1 1 Ju l - 1 1 Se p - 1 1 No v - 1 1 $/ D e k a t h e r m Wood Mackenzie 9/22/2008 Consultant 9/22/2008 NYMEX 9/30/2008 EIA 9/10/2008 Actuals 8 Forecast Assumptions 2021Alaska Pipeline 12.208.401.28LNG Imports (bcf\d) 55.2157.3656.82US Gas Prod. (bcf\d) $ 68.17 $ 60.40 $ 72.25 WTI Oil Price (2008$) 26.4122.8819.33EG Demand (bcf\d) 70.6768.4464.85US Gas Demand (bcf/d) 2.73%2.84%2.55%US Economic Growth (% GDP) 202020152009 Source: Wood Mackenzie 9 Annual Gas Price Forecast (Henry Hub) $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 2009 Nominal 2009 Real 2007 Nominal 2007 Real 10 Basin Differentials as a % of Henry Hub* 97.9% 100.8% 98.6% 98.3% 96.7% 88.9% 100.8%So Cal 97.9%San Juan 88.9%Opal 98.6%Malin 98.3%Sumas 96.7%AECO 100.0%Henry Hub %Location * Based on forecasted 20 year levelized nominal prices 11 Monthly Gas Shape* 98%Jul103%Jan 105%Dec98%Jun 104%Nov97%May 100%Oct96%Apr 99%Sep97%Mar 99%Aug104%Feb % of AnnualMonth% of AnnualMonth * Based on 5 year average of monthly differentials to annual average (AECO) 12 -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 Pe r c e n t I n c r e a s e I n N G P r i c e s -$25 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 Ca r b o n P r i c e p e r T o n ( 2 0 0 8 $ ) Bingaman Proposal NG Change Lieberman-Warner NG Change Bingaman Proposal CO2 Price Lieberman-Warner CO2 Price Wood Mackenzie Green House Gas Scenarios New Technology (Nuclear/Sequestration) Lowers Demand for Natural Gas 13 Carbon Cost & LT Natural Gas Prices Relationship 2012-2021 CO2 & NG Prices y = 0.0028x - 0.0121 R2 = 0.9755 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 CO2 Price (2008$ per metric ton) % C h a n g e t o H H g a s p r i c e s For every $10 of CO2 Cost = +2.8% Increase in Natural Gas Prices 14 Carbon Impact to Natural Gas Conclusion Carbon Legislation will increase natural gas demand and price. To meet a national 1990 Carbon Emissions levels; gas prices could be 30% higher than without Carbon Legislation, unless new technology (Nuclear or Carbon Sequestration) is available in high supply. ’09 IRP will use the discussed relationship to develop the Base Case natural gas price forecast, until 2025 (first year sequestration is available to the market), post 2025 prices differentials will flatten. Increases to natural gas prices will allow existing coal resources to compete with natural gas at higher Carbon cost levels (see Price Forecast Presentation) 15 Levelized Natural Gas Costs ($/Dth)* $9.75$9.11$11.71$10.94Henry Hub w/CO2WMw/CO2WM $9.82$9.18$11.80$11.02Southern Cal $9.56$8.92$11.48$10.71San Juan $8.74$8.10$10.49$9.72Opal $9.62$8.98$11.56$10.79Malin $9.60$8.96$11.53$10.76Sumas $9.45$8.81$11.35$10.58AECO Real (2008$)NominalLocation * Levelized 20 Years (2010-2029) Mid-Columbia Electric Market Forecast James Gall 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Third Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 22, 2008 2 Why Is This Forecast Relevant? Used to value future energy costs Used to determine resources financial value given different market conditions Forecasts when and under what conditions a resource is likely to dispatch Test regional market conditions and policies Time for changes- recommendations are welcome! 3 Historical Mid-Columbia Market Prices $- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 Ja n - 9 7 Ja n - 9 8 Ja n - 9 9 Ja n - 0 0 Ja n - 0 1 Ja n - 0 2 Ja n - 0 3 Ja n - 0 4 Ja n - 0 5 Ja n - 0 6 Ja n - 0 7 Ja n - 0 8 $/ M W h 1997 13.78/ MWh 1999 23.31/ MWh 2000 121.01/ MWh 2001 129.05/ MWh 2002 22.42/ MWh 2003 38.06/ MWh 2005 58.64/ MWh 1998 23.22/ MWh 2006 45.55/ MWh 2007 51.48/ MWh 2004 42.41/ MWh 2008 52.82/ MWh $525 Dec 2000 4 Historical Market Implied Heat Rate - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 4 4/ 1 / 2 0 0 4 7/ 1 / 2 0 0 4 10 / 1 / 2 0 0 4 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 5 4/ 1 / 2 0 0 5 7/ 1 / 2 0 0 5 10 / 1 / 2 0 0 5 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 6 4/ 1 / 2 0 0 6 7/ 1 / 2 0 0 6 10 / 1 / 2 0 0 6 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 7 4/ 1 / 2 0 0 7 7/ 1 / 2 0 0 7 10 / 1 / 2 0 0 7 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 8 4/ 1 / 2 0 0 8 7/ 1 / 2 0 0 8 Bt u / k W h Mid C Daily Firm/Stanfield Prices x 1000 5 Historical Market Implied Heat Rate - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 An n u a l Bt u / k W h 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 6 Regional Demand (20 Year AAGR) Source: Wood Mackenzie -NW- 0.84% -DSW- 2.09% -CA- 1.61% -RM- 1.78% -UT- 2.19% (PAC IRP) Will evaluate using NPCC after GRAC meeting Evaluate NW IRP Forecasts 7 RPS Assumptions (Nameplate Capacity) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Na m e p l a t e ( M W ) Solar Hydro Geothermal Biomass Wind 8 RPS Assumptions (Energy) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 En e r g y ( a M W ) Solar Hydro Geothermal Biomass Wind 9 New Transmission Assumptions 3,000 600 1,500 3,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 3,000 500 10 Regional Resource Options (First Year Available) Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine (2011) Single Cycle Combustion Turbine (2010) Wind (2010) Solar (2010) Pulverized Coal (2015) IGCC Coal (2015) IGCC Coal w/ Sequestration (2025) Combine Cycle Combustion Turbine w/ Sequestration (2025) Nuclear (2022) 11 Carbon Adder $- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 20 3 0 $/ T o n Nominal Real (2008$) 12 New Resources by Type in the WECC Retired 1,300 MW of High Heat Rate Natural Gas Plants between 2011-2013 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW ( N a m e p l a t e ) Wind SolarGeothermalBiomassHydroCCCTSCCTPulverized CoalIGCC Coal 13 Western Interconnect System Costs (Nominal -Excludes Carbon Trading Costs) - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Mi l l i o n s Other New Resources (Cap + O&M) New Resource per RPS (Cap + O&M) Variable O&M Fuel Cost 14 Resource Dispatch Contribution - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Hydro Coal Nuclear Geothermal Wind Solar Gas Gas Peakers Gas Seq IGCC Coal IGCC Coal Seq Oil Other Renewable 15 Greenhouse Gas Forecast- US Western Interconnect 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 WE C C - U S M i l l i o n s S h o r t To n s IRP Forecast 1990 Levels 16 Greenhouse Gas Forecast U.S. Western Interconnect CA 14% TX 0% UT 12% SD 0% OR 3%NV 5%ID 0% WA 4% WY 15% NM 8%MT 6% CO 15% AZ 18% 17 Greenhouse Gas Forecast- WA/OR/ID - 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 WE C C - U S M i l l i o n s S h o r t To n s Northwest Forecast Northwest 1990 18 Carbon Adder High Enough, 2020 Example? Carbon Price to Remove Existing Coal 2020 Example 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0 14 0 15 0 16 0 17 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 CO2 Cost per Short Ton ($) $ p e r M W h Coal CCCT- IRP CCCT- $4 NG CCCT- $6 NG CCCT- $8 NG $133 $70 $42 $14 19 Carbon Price to Remove Existing Coal 2020 Example 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0 14 0 15 0 16 0 17 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 CO2 Cost per Short Ton ($) $ p e r M W h Coal CCCT- IRP CCCT- IRP-No CO2 Adder How about a Coal Carbon “adder” Instead $133 $75 20 Greenhouse Gas Forecast- US Western Interconnect 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Mi l l i o n s o f C O 2 S h o r t To n s CO2 Adder to all Resources CO2 Adder only to Coal/Oil Resources 1990 CO2 Levels 21 Market Implied Heat Rates (Mid-C/Stanfield) 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Bt u / k W H Mid-Columbia/Stanfield Mid-Columbia (adj)/Stanfield 22 Annual On-Off Peak Mid-Columbia Prices $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $/ M W h Average Off-Peak On-Peak 23 Mid-Columbia Prices would be lower if not for Carbon Costs $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $/ M W h Average Avg Price Adjust for CO2 $99.84 $81.36 24 Mid-Columbia Levelized Prices ($/MWh) 2010-2029 72.1391.4183.1520-Year (2008$) 86.60109.7799.8420-Year (Nominal) Off-PeakOn-PeakAverage Legislative Update Collins Sprague 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Third Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 22, 2007 2 Western Climate Initiative Regional cap and trade implementation Electricity sector obligations Cost containment mechanisms Allowances Market regulation and enforcement 3 Feed-In Tariff Solar – Renewable Rate Recovery and Control Act Anaerobic Digester ($0.12/kWh), landfill gas ($0.08/kWh), and “organic” combined heat and power ($0.09/kWh) - Will not qualify for utility compliance with I-937 Renewable energy credit (public utility tax) for solar expanded to include other technologies Wheeling requirement for output from digesters - Transmission cost capped at 5% 4 Energy Efficiency Existing, new and renovated buildings Update Energy Code to achieve 30% reduction from current edition “State Building Efficiency and Carbon Reduction Strategy” – targets for building energy use intensity Energy benchmark disclosure requirement at time of structure sale Partial public utility credit for non-residential energy performance Expansion of Local Improvement Districts to finance energy efficiency and district heating/cooling 5 Other Topics Tax incentives - Broad tax incentives for combined heat and power, distributed generation, and water systems - Renewable energy tax incentives for large-scale generation “Product Stewardship” – collection and recycling of incandescent lighting by manufacturers Vegetation Management Emissions Performance standard revisions Avista’s 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 4 Agenda January 28, 2009 Topic Time Staff 1. Introduction 9:30 Storro 2. 2008 Peak Load Event 9:35 Heath 3. Natural Gas & Electric Price Update 10:00 Rahn / Gall 4. Lunch 11:30 5. Resource Assumptions 12:30 Lyons 6. Transmission 1:00 Gibson 7. Draft Preferred Resource Strategy 2:00 Gall 8. Adjourn 3:00 1 2008 Peak Load Event Heidi Heath 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Fourth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting January 28, 2009 2 2 Top Ten Highest Hourly Loads Date Load 1 12/16/2008 1821 2 12/16/2008 1809 3 12/16/2008 1791 4 2/1/1996 1796 5 12/15/2008 1781 6 12/15/2008 1776 7 2/2/1996 1770 8 1/5/2004 1766 9 12/16/2008 1759 10 12/14/2008 1752 3 3 Daily Average Loads 1989-2008 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1/ 1 / 1 9 8 9 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 0 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 1 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 2 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 3 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 4 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 5 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 6 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 7 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 8 1/ 1 / 1 9 9 9 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 0 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 1 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 2 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 3 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 4 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 5 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 6 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 7 1/ 1 / 2 0 0 8 MW 4 4 Thermal Generation 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 De c 1 5 1 : 0 0 De c 1 5 9 : 0 0 De c 1 5 1 7 : 0 0 De c 1 6 1 : 0 0 De c 1 6 9 : 0 0 De c 1 6 1 7 : 0 0 De c 1 7 1 : 0 0 De c 1 7 9 : 0 0 De c 1 7 1 7 : 0 0 Peakers Thermal Native Load 5 5 Hydro Generation 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 De c 1 5 1 : 0 0 De c 1 5 9 : 0 0 De c 1 5 1 7 : 0 0 De c 1 6 1 : 0 0 De c 1 6 9 : 0 0 De c 1 6 1 7 : 0 0 De c 1 7 1 : 0 0 De c 1 7 9 : 0 0 De c 1 7 1 7 : 0 0 Mid C Hydro Clark Fork Hydro Spokane River Hydro Peakers Thermal Native Load 6 6 River icing was a problem! 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 12/12/2008 12/14/2008 12/16/2008 12/18/2008 12/20/2008 12/22/2008 12/24/2008 12/26/2008 12/28/2008 12/30/2008 Fl o w ( c f s ) Noxon Rapids Inflow Kerr Discharge Noxon inflow dropped from about 15K to about 11K, an effective disappearance of about 27% 7 7 Contracts 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 De c 1 5 1 : 0 0 De c 1 5 9 : 0 0 De c 1 5 1 7 : 0 0 De c 1 6 1 : 0 0 De c 1 6 9 : 0 0 De c 1 6 1 7 : 0 0 De c 1 7 1 : 0 0 De c 1 7 9 : 0 0 De c 1 7 1 7 : 0 0 Contracts Mid C Hydro Clark Fork Hydro Spokane River Hydro Peakers Thermal Native Load 8 8 Market Purchases 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 De c 1 5 1 : 0 0 De c 1 5 9 : 0 0 De c 1 5 1 7 : 0 0 De c 1 6 1 : 0 0 De c 1 6 9 : 0 0 De c 1 6 1 7 : 0 0 De c 1 7 1 : 0 0 De c 1 7 9 : 0 0 De c 1 7 1 7 : 0 0 Market Contracts Mid C Hydro Clark Fork Hydro Spokane River Hydro Peakers Thermal Native Load 9 Natural Gas & Electric Price Forecast- Update Greg Rahn & James Gall 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Fourth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting January 28, 2009 10 2 Study Changes Since Last TAC Wood Mackenzie released its “Carbon Case #3” -Mid-range greenhouse gas mitigation scenario -Natural gas price impact from greenhouse legislation -Demand reductions due to greenhouse gas legislation Updated Natural Gas Price Forecast -Integrates near term economy -Short-term price collapse -Credit markets 11 3 Natural Gas Price Forecast Update Supply Increase to Soften Price of Natural Gas Edinburgh, Scotland-based energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said it expects spot prices for natural gas between $5 and $6 per million British thermal units for the next few years, with periods when prices will slip even lower. "We are now in a position of significant potential oversupply brought about by the huge success experienced in the development of shale gas plays," says Jen Snyder, head of North American gas research at Wood Mackenzie. - Russell Gold, The Wall Street Journal November 25, 2008 12 4 $5.00 $7.00 $9.00 $11.00 $13.00 $15.00 $17.00 $19.00 $21.00 $ p e r D t h 2009 IRP 6.66 6.69 6.69 6.69 7.05 7.87 8.63 9.20 10.05 10.69 10.89 10.86 10.94 11.26 11.50 11.76 12.04 12.49 12.72 12.96 Oct TAC 7.64 7.69 8.53 9.14 9.90 10.00 10.52 11.13 11.67 12.41 12.82 12.94 13.60 14.79 16.57 17.84 18.30 18.77 19.26 19.75 2007 IRP 6.23 5.91 6.00 6.15 6.30 6.59 6.98 7.47 7.95 8.44 8.94 9.43 9.95 10.50 11.08 11.70 12.35 13.04 13.77 14.55 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Annual Natural Gas Price Comparison Henry Hub Nominal $ Levelized Costs 2009 IRP: $9.05 Oct TAC: $11.71 2007 IRP: $8.44 2009 IRP: 2010-2013 Average Price of Consultants, EIA, and Forward Prices 13 5 $5.00 $7.00 $9.00 $11.00 $13.00 $15.00 $17.00 $19.00 $21.00 $ p e r D t h 2009 IRP 6.53 6.43 6.29 6.17 6.37 6.98 7.52 7.87 8.44 8.81 8.82 8.64 8.55 8.64 8.66 8.70 8.74 8.90 8.90 8.90 Oct TAC 7.49 7.39 8.03 8.43 8.96 8.88 9.17 9.52 9.80 10.23 10.38 10.29 10.63 11.35 12.48 13.20 13.29 13.37 13.47 13.56 2007 IRP 6.23 5.80 5.77 5.79 5.81 5.96 6.19 6.50 6.80 7.09 7.37 7.63 7.91 8.20 8.50 8.81 9.14 9.47 9.81 10.17 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Annual Natural Gas Price Comparison Henry Hub 2009 $ Levelized Costs 2009 IRP: $7.68 Oct TAC: $9.95 2007 IRP: $7.07 14 6 Greenhouse Gas Price Assumptions Based on the most recent ‘discussion draft’ proposal by Reps. Dingell and Boucher of the House Energy and Commerce Committee Wood Mackenzie made assumptions on the key components of the analysis such as caps on carbon prices, the allocation of carbon credits, the use of carbon offsets, and, nuclear and CCS technology availability. Wood Mackenzie’s proprietary upstream oil, gas, and coal data and analysis are the cost and availability of fuel supplies, particularly to support an assumption to increase reliance on natural gas to meet near term emission reduction requirements. Carbon offsets/other industry represent difference between forecasted emissions and legislative goals Source: Wood Mackenzie Carbon Case 3 15 7 $- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r D t h 2009 IRP Oct TAC Annual GHG Adder to Natural Gas Prices 2008 $ Levelized Costs 2009 IRP: $0.54 Oct TAC: $0.51 16 8 - 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 $/ S h o r t T o n Oct TAC 23 26 28 30 33 36 39 41 43 47 51 55 59 60 65 70 76 81 2009 IRP 7 12 18 24 33 35 50 54 57 61 66 70 75 80 86 92 98 105 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Annual GHG Adder per Ton of CO2 Nominal $ Levelized Costs 2009 IRP: $46.14 Oct TAC: $41.30 17 9 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 $/ S h o r t T o n Oct TAC 22 23 25 27 28 30 32 34 34 36 39 41 44 43 46 49 52 55 2009 IRP 6 11 16 21 28 30 41 43 46 48 50 53 55 58 61 64 67 71 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Annual GHG Adder per Ton of CO2 2009 $ Levelized Costs 2009 IRP: $35.83 Oct TAC: $32.92 18 10 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Av e r a g e M e g a w a t t s Base Loads 2009 IRP Western Interconnect Load Growth Change with Greenhouse Gas Legislation Annualized Load Growth 2009 IRP: 1.57% Load Base: 1.80% 19 11 $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $/ M W h Oct TAC 2009 IRP Last TAC Price Forecast vs 2009 IRP Levelized Costs 2009 IRP: $ 86.37 Oct TAC: $103.59 20 12 US Western Interconnect Greenhouse Gas Comparison 200 250 300 350 400 450 Mi l l i o n s o f S h o r t T o n s 2009 IRP 336 337 335 332 334 333 330 332 325 329 323 317 312 314 314 309 310 309 307 303 Oct TAC 319 321 314 319 325 324 331 337 338 345 343 347 351 357 367 371 375 377 385 385 2005 Levels 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 1990 Levels 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 21 13 $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r M W h Mid-Columbia Actual & Forecast Actual Mid-Columbia Firm Index 2009 IRP Forecast-Deterministic 20 0 9 F o r w a r d s Dashes are 2009$ Levels 22 14 Implied Market Heat Rate (Mid-Columbia/Stanfield*1000) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Bt u / k W h Implied Market Heat Rate (Power/Gas*1000) Implied Market Heat Rate (Exclude GHG Cost @8,000HR) 23 15 Western Interconnect New Resources (5) 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 GW Hydro - - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solar 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 Geothermal 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Biomass 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Wind 3 4 5 6 7 10 13 15 18 19 24 25 25 26 26 28 29 29 29 30 SCCT 10 12 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Coal Seq - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 1 1 1 CCCT - 2 7 8 9 12 14 16 18 21 22 25 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 49 Oil- retire (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) NG- retire (0) (0) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) Coal- retire - - - (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 24 16 Colstrip Generation & CO2 Legislation 0 50 100 150 200 250 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $ p e r S h o r t T o n 25 Stochastic Analysis 26 18 Stochastic Study CPU Requirements 20-year hourly simulations, 250 times (tested as high as 500) Uses 25 CPU and 1 data server 26.5 GB output database per study 6 hours per simulation, 1,500 hours of computing time 2.5 days to complete a study 27 19 Long-Term Correlation Matrix Lancaster 1.001.000.500.50Hog Fuel Prices 1.001.00-0.25-0.25-0.25New Coal Prices 1.001.001.000.75SO2Prices 1.001.000.75NOXPrices 1.00-0.50Hg Prices 1.000.50GHG Prices 1.00Gas Prices Load Growth Hog Fuel Prices New Coal Prices SO2Prices NOXPrices GHG Prices Gas Prices 28 20 Annual Henry Hub Prices $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00 $14.00 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r D t h Deterministic Stochastic Mean Stochastic Median 29 21 Annual Henry Hub Prices Select Years $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Percent of Draws $ p e r D t h 2010 2014 2017 2020 30 22 Annual Henry Hub Stochastic Price Ranges Mean Min 99 Percentile 90% Con. Int. $- $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r D t h 31 23 Annual Mid-Columbia Electric Prices Deterministic vs. Stochastic Prices $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $/ M W h Deterministic Stochastic- Mean Levelized Costs Stochastic: $93.68 Deterministic: $86.37 32 24 Annual Avg Mid-Columbia Prices Select Years $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Percent of Draws $ p e r M W h 2010 2014 2017 2020 33 25 Annual Mid-Columbia Stochastic Price Results Mean Min 99 Percentile 90% Con. Int. $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r M W h 34 26 US- Western Interconnect Greenhouse Gas Emissions By Year 200 250 300 350 400 450 Mi l l i o n s o f S h o r t T o n s Deterministic 336 337 335 332 334 333 330 332 325 329 323 317 312 314 314 309 310 309 307 303 Mean 323 326 326 322 323 321 315 324 316 320 316 312 311 317 320 319 326 326 328 333 Upper End Int 80% 363 366 365 369 376 385 382 393 395 397 400 395 398 403 402 403 415 417 415 424 Low er End Int 80% 284 286 287 276 270 257 249 256 238 243 233 228 223 232 238 234 237 236 240 241 2005 Levels 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 1990 Levels 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 35 2009 IRP Resource Assumptions John Lyons, Ph.D. 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Fourth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting January 28, 2009 36 2 Supply Side Resources Resource lists and data are developed from a variety of sources including: internal research, Power Council, consulting firms, published reports, and government studies Data is used to develop generic resource costs Fewer types of coal resources are included – only ultra critical and IGCC plants are being modeled for the 2009 IRP Alberta oil sands are not included as a resource option Adding more specifics for the Other Renewable Resources category – various geothermal, biomass, and solar resource technologies are being modeled separately for the 2009 IRP Pipeline cogeneration has been dropped due to lack of sufficient data 37 3 Non-Renewable Supply Side Resources Natural Gas Combined Cycle (CCCT) –2 x 1 and 1 x 1 with duct burner water cooled (1x1 for PRS) –2 x 1 and 1 x 1 with duct burner air cooled –600 MW with sequestration Natural Gas-Fired Simple Cycle – Aero, Frame, and Hybrid Small cogeneration (< 5 MW) Coal: ultra critical, IGCC, and IGCC with sequestration Nuclear: only alllowed in scenario studies 38 4 Renewable Supply Side Resources Geothermal Wind – 100 MW, < 5 MW, and offshore CCCT Wood Boiler Wood Gasification Conversion Open Loop Biomass – landfill gas, wood, waste, etc. Closed Loop Biomass Solar Photovoltaic Solar Thermal Roof Top Solar Tidal Power Hydrokinetics Run of River Hydro Pumped Storage 39 5 Avista Resources and Upgrades Hydro resources included as resource options Little Falls Unit #1 – 4 Upgrades Post Falls Unit #6 Upgrade Upper Falls Upgrade Hydro resources considered for further study Long Lake new unit and new powerhouse Cabinet Gorge #5 Scheduled upgrades and resources presently included in the L&R Noxon Rapids Units #1 – 4 Upgrades (2009 – 2012) Lancaster Generation Facility Tolling Agreement (2010) 40 Transmission & Distribution Efficiencies John Gibson 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Fourth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting January 28, 2009 41 2 Introduction – System Efficiencies Distribution System •Analysis Methodology •Analysis Criteria •Prioritization Tabulation •Pilot Project: 9CE12F4 Transmission System •Load Density •Grid Topology 42 3 Distribution Efficiency Programs Split feeders Distribution transformers efficiency – no load loss Secondary districts Reconductoring Reactive loading Voltage regulation 43 4 Distribution Analysis Criteria Energy efficiency upgrades (acquisition cost) Capital offset (5year capital budget) Reliability Index Equipment age profile Operational requirements Capital Offset Reliability A ge Operational Requirements Acquisition Cost 44 5 Distribution Prioritization Tabulation 0.481Low$780,833$125.8129830.06CLV12F2 0.483High$0$125.0329131.73SUN12F1 0.490Low$0$109.1931723.29STM631 0.499Low$0$102.9129921.71LF34F1 0.502Low$28,333$108.4732330.43CLV12F4 0.502Low$250,000$108.7730330.44COB12F1 0.508Low$0$102.5930927.39LAT421 0.519Low$0$94.8128327.32COB12F2 0.522High$0$112.7831225.20SUN12F3 0.533Low$0$78.9719730.33ORO1281 0.544Low$0$94.1033123.34PRV4S40 0.558Low$220,000$90.7631027.57SPI12F1 0.591Low$0$73.3028527.44ORI12F3 0.596Low$400,000$85.0732825.32KET12F2 Overall Score Operational RequirementsCapital Offset Avoided CostReliabilityAge Feeder Project 45 6 Feed Efficiency Upgrade – Pilot Project 46 7 Feed Efficiency Upgrade – Pilot Project 47 8 Feed Efficiency Upgrade – Pilot Project 48 9 Feed Efficiency Upgrade – Pilot Project 49 10 Feed Efficiency Upgrade – Pilot Project 230125$1,100,0009thand Central 12F4 Peak Power kWCapital Investment Average Power kWFeeder 50 11 Transmission Efficiency Initiatives Load density and forecasted load growth 51 12 Transmission Efficiency Initiatives Load density and forecasted load growth 52 13 Transmission Efficiency Initiatives Load density and forecasted load growth 53 14 Transmission Efficiency Initiatives Transmission topology Transmission archetypes 54 15 Transmission Efficiency Initiatives Transmission topology Transmission archetypes 55 16 Transmission Efficiency Initiatives Transmission topology Transmission archetypes 56 Preferred Resource Strategy- DRAFT James Gall 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Fourth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting January 28, 2009 57 2 Resource Needs (Energy) Annual Average Energy Resources vs Load 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/ Cont. Load is net 2007 Conservation Levels 58 3 Resource Needs (Winter Capacity) Annual Resource Capacity at Winter Peak Load 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/PM, w/o Maint Load is net 2007 Conservation Levels 59 4 Resource Needs (Summer Capacity) Annual Resource Capacity at August Peak Load 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/PM, w/o Maint Load is net 2007 Conservation Levels 60 5 Resource Needs (Energy) Energy Positions (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Energy Position Energy Position (No Q2) Lancaster Tolling Contract Expires 100MW Flat Market Purchase Contracts Expire Net 2007 Conservation Levels 61 6 Resource Needs (Capacity) Capacity Positions (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW Winter Peak Position August Peak Position WNP-3 Purchase Contract Expires PGE Capacity Sale Expires Lancaster Tolling Contract Expires 100MW Flat Market Purchase Contracts Expire Net 2007 Conservation Levels 62 7 PRiSM Objective Function Linear program solving for the optimal resource strategy to meet resource deficits over planning horizon. Model selects its resources to reduce cost, risk, or both. Minimize:Total Power Supply Cost on NPV basis (2010-2050 with emphasis on first 11 years of the plan Subject to: •Risk Level •Capacity Need +/- deviation •Energy Need +/- deviation •Renewable Portfolio Standards •Resource Limitations and Timing •Greenhouse Gas Limits 63 8 PRiSM Data Requirements Expected load & resource balance for next 20 years 20 year by 250 iteration matrix of resource values Avista’s current resource portfolio cost Each new resource alternatives market value (electric price less fuel costs, variable O&M, and emissions costs) Existing resource market value Conservation estimates Generation capital costs, fixed operating costs, transmission costs, revenue requirements Availability assumptions (size, when, where) 64 9 PRiSM New Enhancements Resources selections must be blocks of resources such as 50 MW wind, 75 MW SCCT, 125 MW CCCT (half unit) Use more precise method to estimate frontier curve Meets both summer & winter capacity requirements Ability to account for greenhouse gas levels More accurate ability to take into account post IRP time period Ability to retire resources (used for sensitivity analysis only) Higher cost conservation measures can be selected by the model (available for final draft) 65 10 Efficient Frontier Demonstrates the trade off of cost and risk Avoided Cost Method Ri s k Least Cost Portfolio Least Risk Portfolio Find least cost portfolio at a given level of risk Short-term Market Only Market Capacity Risk+ = Avoided Cost+ 66 11 Portfolio Scenarios 1) Base Case 2) Case 1 + Small Renewable as Options 3) Case 2 + Large Hydro Upgrades as Options 67 12 $160 $165 $170 $175 $180 $185 $190 $195 $200 $205 $3,400 $3,450 $3,500 $3,550 $3,600 $3,650 Expected PV (2010-2020) (2009$) 20 2 0 S t d e v ( 2 0 0 9 $ ) Efficient Frontier (millions) 2009 PRS 68 13 -20% -18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Incremental Cost De c r e m e n t a l R i s k Change From Least Cost Portfolio 8% Reduction 5% Reduction 69 14 Preferred Resource Strategy (2020-2029 DRAFT- Base Case “Yellow Light” conservation not modeled yet Year CCCT SCCT Reardan Wind Other Renew Solar Hydro Upgrades Coal IGCC w/ Seq Co-Gen DSM T&D Total Cumulative 2010 7.8 1.0 8.8 8.8 2011 7.9 1.0 8.9 17.6 2012 50.0 8.0 1.0 59.0 76.6 2013 100.0 8.2 1.0 109.2 185.8 2014 8.3 1.0 9.3 195.1 2015 125.0 1.0 8.4 1.0 135.4 330.5 2016 8.6 8.6 339.1 2017 1.0 8.7 9.7 348.8 2018 100.0 8.9 108.9 457.7 2019 100.0 2.5 9.0 111.5 569.2 2020 250.0 100.0 4.0 5.0 9.2 368.2 937.3 2021 9.3 9.3 946.7 2022 9.5 9.5 956.1 2023 9.6 9.6 965.8 2024 9.8 9.8 975.6 2025 125.0 10.0 135.0 1,110.6 2026 125.0 10.1 135.1 1,245.7 2027 250.0 10.3 260.3 1,506.0 2028 50.0 10.5 60.5 1,566.5 2029 100.0 7.0 10.7 117.7 1,684.2 2010-2019 125.0 - 50.0 300.0 - - 2.0 - - 2.5 83.7 6.0 569.2 2010-2029 875.0 - 50.0 550.0 7.0 - 6.0 - - 7.5 182.7 6.0 1,684.2 70 15 PRS: Winter Capacity 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW Conservation CCCT CCCT w/ Seq SCCT Wind Other Renewables Solar Hydro Upgrades Coal IGCC w/ Seq Co-Gen Nuclear Market T&D Efficiencies Need 71 16 PRS: Summer Capacity 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW Conservation CCCT CCCT w/ Seq SCCTWindOther RenewablesSolarHydro UpgradesCoalIGCC w/ SeqCo-Gen Nuclear Market T&D EfficienciesNeed 72 17 PRS: Annual Average Energy 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Conservation CCCTCCCT w/ Seq SCCTWindOther RenewablesSolarHydro UpgradesCoalIGCC w/ SeqCo-Gen NuclearMarketT&D EfficienciesTotal 73 18 PRS: WA RPS Requirement 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Wind Other RenewablesSolarHydro UpgradesPurchased REC Sold RECCurrent Shortfall 74 19 PRS: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Sh o r t T o n s ( T h o u s a n d s ) 75 20 2020: Portfolios on the Efficient Frontier - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Na m e p l a t e C a p a c i t y T&D Efficiencies 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 Co-Gen 5 - 8 5 8 8 - - 8 IGCC w/ Seq - - - - - - - - - Coal - - - - - - - - - Hydro Upgrades 4 4 6 6 6 4 2 2 6 Solar - - - - - - - - - Other Renewables - - - - 1 - - - - Wind 600 550 500 450 450 400 350 300 450 SCCT - - - - - - - - - CCCT 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 Least Risk ------++++Least Cost PRS 76 21 2029: Portfolios on the Efficient Frontier - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Na m e p l a t e C a p a c i t y T&D Efficiencies 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 Co-Gen 10 8 8 5 10 8 8 8 8 IGCC w/ Seq 400 400 400 400 - - - - - Coal - - - - - - - - - Hydro Upgrades 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 Solar - - - - - - - - - Other Renewables - - - - 1 7 7 7 7 Wind 600 550 500 550 600 500 350 350 600 SCCT - - - - - - - - - CCCT 500 500 500 500 875 875 875 875 875 Least Risk ------++++Least Cost PRS 77 22 Efficient Frontier: Capital Requirements $- $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 Least Risk --- -- - + ++ + Least Cost PRS Bi l l i o n s ( N o t D i s c o u n t e d ) 2020-2029 2010-2019 78 23 Efficient Frontier Scenario Analysis $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $3,400 $3,450 $3,500 $3,550 $3,600 $3,650 $3,700 $3,750 $3,800 $3,850 Expected PV (2010-2020) St a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n ( 2 0 2 0 ) Scenario 1: Base Case Scenario 2: Small Renewables Scenario 3: + Hydro Upgrades 79 24 Scenario 2- Resource Selection Small Renewables an Option Year CCCT SCCT Reardan Wind Other Renew Solar Hydro Upgrades Coal IGCC w/ Seq Co-Gen DSM T&D Total Cumulative 2010 7.8 1.0 8.8 8.8 2011 7.9 1.0 8.9 17.6 2012 10.0 8.0 1.0 19.0 36.6 2013 50.0 50.0 5.0 8.2 1.0 114.2 150.8 2014 8.3 1.0 9.3 160.1 2015 125.0 1.0 8.4 1.0 135.4 295.5 2016 10.0 8.6 18.6 314.1 2017 8.7 8.7 322.8 2018 100.0 5.0 8.9 113.9 436.7 2019 100.0 9.0 109.0 545.7 2020 250.0 100.0 4.0 1.0 9.2 364.2 909.8 2021 5.0 9.3 14.3 924.2 2022 1.0 5.0 9.5 15.5 939.6 2023 9.6 9.6 949.3 2024 9.8 9.8 959.1 2025 125.0 10.0 135.0 1,094.1 2026 125.0 10.1 135.1 1,229.2 2027 125.0 10.3 135.3 1,364.5 2028 10.5 10.5 1,375.0 2029 100.0 100.0 10.7 210.7 1,585.7 2010-2019 125.0 - 50.0 250.0 30.0 - 1.0 - - - 83.7 6.0 545.7 2010-2029 750.0 100.0 50.0 450.0 30.0 4.0 3.0 - - 10.0 182.7 6.0 1,585.7 2010-2019 (Delta) - - - (50.0) 30.0 - (1.0) - - (2.5) - - (23.5) 2010-2029 (Delta) (125.0) 100.0 - (100.0) 23.0 4.0 (3.0) - - 2.5 - - (98.5) 80 25 Scenario 3- Resource Selection Scenario 2 + Hydro Upgrades an Option Year CCCT SCCT Reardan Wind Other Renew Solar Hydro Upgrades Coal IGCC w/ Seq Co-Gen DSM T&D Total Cumulative 2010 7.8 1.0 8.8 8.8 2011 7.9 1.0 8.9 17.6 2012 10.0 8.0 1.0 19.0 36.6 2013 50.0 50.0 4.0 8.2 1.0 113.2 149.8 2014 4.0 8.3 1.0 13.3 163.1 2015 4.0 60.0 8.4 1.0 73.4 236.5 2016 5.0 1.0 8.6 14.6 251.1 2017 1.0 8.7 9.7 260.8 2018 100.0 8.9 108.9 369.7 2019 100.0 4.0 9.0 113.0 482.7 2020 250.0 100.0 4.0 64.0 5.0 9.2 432.2 914.8 2021 9.3 9.3 924.2 2022 9.5 9.5 933.6 2023 9.6 9.6 943.3 2024 9.8 9.8 953.1 2025 125.0 10.0 135.0 1,088.1 2026 125.0 10.1 135.1 1,223.2 2027 250.0 5.0 10.3 265.3 1,488.5 2028 100.0 10.5 110.5 1,599.0 2029 100.0 10.7 110.7 1,709.7 2010-2019 - - 50.0 250.0 15.0 16.0 126.0 - - - 83.7 6.0 482.7 2010-2029 750.0 - 50.0 550.0 20.0 20.0 126.0 - - 5.0 182.7 6.0 1,709.7 2010-2019 (Delta) (125.0) - - (50.0) 15.0 16.0 124.0 - - (2.5) - - (86.5) 2010-2029 (Delta) (125.0) - - - 13.0 20.0 120.0 - - (2.5) - - 25.5 81 26 Greenhouse Gas Scenario Comparison - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Th o u s a n d S h o r t - T o n s Base Case Scenario 2 Scenario 3 82 27 Next Steps Add “Yellow Light” conservation projects as resource options Perform capital cost sensitivity analysis Study portfolios with renewable requirement changes Resource Availability National RPS Higher WA state RPS target Study portfolio options with alternative market futures Test “Preferred Resource Strategies” against market scenarios Further evaluate large hydro upgrades 83 Avista’s 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 5 Agenda March 25, 2009 Topic Time Staff 1. Introduction 9:30 Storro 2. Conservation 9:35 Hermanson 3. Lunch 11:30 4. Preferred Resource Strategy 12:30 Gall 5. Scenarios and Futures 1:30 Gall/Lyons 6. 2009 IRP Topics 2:30 Lyons 7. Adjourn 3:00 DSM in the 2009 Electric IRP Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Lori Hermanson March 25, 2009 Presentation Highlights • D SM History • O verview of DSM What, why, how and who of DSM • Customer segments reached and offerings • Messaging and outreach through EveryLittleBit and Website • Tariff Rider Funding • M etrics • Stakeholders • 2008 Results and 2009 Focus • Integration of DSM into IRP • Business planning to program development Brief DSM History • Offered DSM since 1978 Energy exchanger – converted over 20,000 homes from electric to natural gas for space and water Pioneered the country’s first system benefit charge for energy efficiency in 1995 Immediate conservation response to 2001 Western energy crisis through expanded programs and enhanced incentives – Tripled annual savings at twice the cost During the past 30 years, we acquired 138.5 aMW of energy savings – 109 aMW still online Deep and broad energy efficiency programs with strong messaging for all customers. We provide financial rebates for all com- mercial and industrial electric and natural gas savings measures with a payback over one year and we offer rebates for weatherization and efficient appliances as well as low-cost/no-cost tips. We provide renewable options and are testing end-use demand response pilots. What We Do Why We Do It Acquire lower cost resources to benefit all customers (IRP implementation) Customer assistance Reduction in customers' bills Gives customers some control in a higher energy cost environment Regulatory obligation and sensibility Reduced pressure on, or alternatives for, the capital budget Carbon reduction and environmental focus How We Do It Pursue the Best Delivery Mechanisms for the Targeted Market ¾Standard Offers (“Prescriptive”) for residential & small commercial customers through mass marketing ¾Custom (“Site Specific”) for C&I customers with one point of contact through our Account Executive Team ¾Low Income through community action agencies ¾Regional through the NW Energy Efficiency Alliance ¾Special projects—RFPs, Pilot Programs, etc. ¾Promotion of Codes and Standards Who Does It Program Managers and Coordinators Catherine Bryan Renee Coelho Leona Doege Chris Drake Camille Martin Lisa McGarity Debby Reid Kerry Shroy Greta Zink Tom Lienhard Mike Dillon Damon Fisher Carlos Limon Ron Welch Jon Powell Lori Hermanson Pat Lynch Bruce Folsom Rachelle McGrath Administration Engineering Team Analytical Group Students Virginia Luka Rachael Roig Nate Thompson Kayla Trabun Who Does It (cont.) <<<Site Specific: Account Executive Team Prescriptive: Marketing Team>>> Contact Center assists customers with energy efficiency information Corporate Communications provides earned media expertise Community Relations partners with education and community involvement State and Federal Regulation Department assists with PUC filings and communications C/I Energy Efficiency Site Specific • Custom Projects • Technical Assistance • Free Energy Audits and Analysis • Design Review • Cash Incentives Avista Customer Summary of Proposed Energy Efficiency Measures Listed in order of Simple Payback Option No. Brief EEM Descripti on EEM Cost Ele ctri c kW h Sav ings Dema nd kW Savin gs Nat. Gas Ther m Savin gs Energy Cost Saving s Simple Payba ck before incenti ve Potenti al Incenti ve Simple Payback After Incentive 1 Site Lighting Retrofit $179, 335 519 ,44 1 76 (4,01 4) $33,20 6 5.4 yrs $ 62,333 3.5 Years 2 Warehou se Heater replacem ent $53,3 95 --2,665 $2,804 19.0 yrs $ 7,995 16.2 yrs 3 Roof insulatio n $180, 000 --7,742 $8,146 22.1 yrs $ 23,226 19.2 yrs 4 Office HVAC retrofits $404, 240 93, 842 -6,069 $11,89 3 34.0 yrs $ 21,961 32.1 yrs Scope of Work: •The above incentives are based on information provided by vendor. The costs for the insulation were based on $1.50 per square foot. Any higher costs will need verification, but may increase the incentive. •The warehouse HVAC system change is based on a building model using a warehouse setting and the insulation having already been complete. •The office HVAC changes are based on the complete sq.ft. of the office space increasing SEER/EER values to new construction standards and a slight increase in AFUE for heating. •All reports are attached. C/I Energy Efficiency Prescriptive Standard Offer Programs Measures that have relatively uniform savings Pre-determined amount Streamlined approach Marketability Ease of understanding for customers and contractors C/I Prescriptive (Standard Offer) Programs ¾Lighting ¾Food Service Equipment ¾PC Network Controls ¾Premium Efficiency Motors ¾Steam Trap Repair/ Replacement ¾Demand Controlled Ventilation ¾Side Stream Filtration ¾Retro-Commissioning ¾LEED Certification ¾Vending Machine Controllers ¾Refrigerated Warehouse ¾Electric to Gas Water Heater Conversions ¾Variable Frequency Drives ¾Commercial Clothes Washers ¾Energy Smart Grocer Residential Prescriptive Offerings •High efficiency equipment •CFL lighting •Refrigerator recycling •Conversions from Straight Resistance •Weatherization •Rooftop dampers •Ductless heat pump pilot •UCONS Multi-family direct install •www.everylittlebit.com (visit our house of rebates) Limited Income Offerings • Weatherization • Windows/Doors • Conversions • Equipment Upgrades • Health & Human Safety Regional Programs (NEEA) • Acquisition of electric efficiency through market transformation • Funded by 5 IOUs, ETO, generating publics and BPA Avista’s portion – 3.94% • Regional leaders are discussing expansion of efforts Avista’s portion will increase to 5.6% Savings acquisition increase from 1.5 aMW to 2.94 aMW • Historically been a cost-effective option to acquire resources Levelized TRC cost of about 10 mills Not necessarily representative of future costs Messaging and Outreach: Every Little Bit Market research done in 2007 found that Avista’s customers believed they “were already efficiency, that energy efficiency is too expensive, and it doesn’t make much difference.” In response, the EveryLittleBit campaign was launched with a website, broadcast and print media, and collateral materials in a multi-channel, multi-year approach. Messaging and Outreach: Online Resources •www.everylittlebit.com •www.avistautilities.com •Energy Saving Tips •House of Rebates •Downloadable Forms •Energy Audit •Bill Analyzer •RDN Dealer List •Efficiency Ave for Business – in process Funding of Energy Efficiency Programs DSM Tariff Rider A percentage of every dollar paid goes to energy efficiency Has multiple regulatory requirements for implementation Provides for $23 million annual budget Moving towards an annual “true-up” First “System Benefit Charge” in North America in 1995 Continue to evaluate its efficacy and options Potential Stimulus Funding • Funding available for energy conservation and smart grid development • Avista is currently evaluating possible programs that could be offered with additional funding from the stimulus bill One possible project – regional smart grid pilot – Utility and non-utility sponsors – Scope includes everything from Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), software and support, to demand response – Avista still considering participation but still has not committed to participation Resource Portfolio Standards (RPS) • Previously I-937, requires large utilities to obtain a fixed percentage of their electricity from qualifying renewable resources in addition to all cost-effective and acquirable energy conservation 3% by 2012 9% by 2016 15% by 2020 • Avista is working with others to change this legislation to allow utilities to use energy conservation acquisition above the cost- effective levels in lieu of renewables Benefits the customer Truly lower cost resource Metrics Cost-Effectiveness, Measurement and Evaluation, Post-Verification, Triple E Reports, Prudence Findings in General Rate Cases Stakeholder Involvement Avista External Energy Efficiency Board Lynn Anderson – Idaho Public Utilities Commission Nick Beamer –Aging and Long-Term Care of Eastern Washington Sheryl Carter – Natural Resource Defense Council Chris Davis – Spokane Neighborhood Action Programs Carrie Dolwick – Northwest Energy Coalition Michael Early – Industrial Customers of Northwest Utilities Chuck Eberdt – The Energy Project Tom Eckman – Northwest Power Planning Council Donn English – Idaho Public Utilities Commission Claire Fulenwider – Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Stefanie Johnson – Washington Public Counsel Steven Johnson – Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission Lisa LaBolle – Idaho Office of Energy Resources John Kaufman – Oregon Department of Energy Mary Kimball – Washington Public Council Lynn Kittilson – Oregon Public Utility Commission Phil Kercher – Sacred Heart Medical Center Ron Oscarson - Spokane County Paula Pyron – Northwest Industrial Gas Users Deborah Reynolds – Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission Michael Shepard – E-Source External Energy Efficiency Board (Triple E) Non-binding oversight, technical advisory committee Meets twice a year Regular reporting Periodic Newsletters Incentives/Rebates Paid in 2008 • Slightly over $15 million paid to Avista customers. $7.65 million to commercial/industrial customers – 768 projects received an incentive $6.1 million to residential customers – 12,890 residential customers received incentives $1.2 million to limited income customers – More than 450 households assisted Avista’s 2008 Energy Efficiency Results • Exceeded electric IRP goal by 41% and natural gas IRP goal by 32% • Total electric savings over 74.8 million kilowatt hours Commercial/Industrial over 41.8 million kwh Residential over 31.1 million kwh Limited Income over 1.8 million kwh • Total natural gas savings over 1.8 million therms Commercial/Industrial over 1.0 million therms Residential – 749,199 therms Limited Income – 102,438 therms 2009 Focus Continued personalization, presence, and participation for and by customers New Programs Under Consideration: Small Commercial Initiative, Energy Champion, Energy Coaching, Behavioral Programs, Bundling Potential changes in Resource Portfolio Standards in Washington, Energy Trust of Oregon, Decoupling in all states Earnings opportunities and potential for expansion Increasing electric and natural gas savings targets From Planning to Customer Programs 2009 Washington / Idaho DSM Business Plan A Working Document to Plan and Guide our 2009 Strategy and Operations Avista Washington / Idaho DSM staff Catherine Bryan Renee Coelho Mike Dillon Leona Doege Chris Drake Damon Fisher Bruce Folsom Lori Hermanson Tom Lienhard Carlos Limon-Granados Camille Martin Rachelle McGrath Jon Powell Ron Welch Greta Zink Avista External Energy Efficiency Board Lynn Anderson – Idaho Public Utilities Commission Nick Beamer –Aging and Long-Term Care of Eastern Washington Sheryl Carter – Natural Resource Defense Council Chris Davis – Spokane Neighborhood Action Programs Carrie Dolwick – Northwest Energy Coalition Michael Early – Industrial Customers of Northwest Utilities Chuck Eberdt – The Energy Project Tom Eckman – Northwest Power Planning Council Donn English – Idaho Public Utilities Commission Claire Fulenwider – Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Stefanie Johnson – Washington Public Counsel Steven Johnson – Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission Lisa LaBolle – Idaho Office of Energy Resources John Kaufman – Oregon Department of Energy Mary Kimball – Washington Public Council Lynn Kittilson – Oregon Public Utility Commission Phil Kercher – Sacred Heart Medical Center Ron Oscarson - Spokane County Paula Pyron – Northwest Industrial Gas Users Deborah Reynolds – Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission Michael Shepard –E-Source Total Company Planning From Planning >30 Programs with >3000 DSM measures to Tariffs and and >300 measures considered Programs offered Integration of DSM into the 2009 Electric IRP • Interactive process that meets regulatory requirements and produces results for the business planning process Identify all commercially available technologies or measures – “Acceptance” or “rejection” within the IRP will not remove any technology or application from potentially being included – Nearly 2,500 measures were evaluated for this IRP Re-evaluate existing residential measures and evaluate the inclusion of addition measures – May change the menu of residential offerings – Nearly 800 measures were evaluated for this IRP Integration of DSM into the 2009 Electric IRP (cont.) • Inclusion of limited income and non-residential site specific programs are done by modifying the historical baseline Not necessarily limited to modifying baseline for price elasticity and load growth Site specific measures that fit into the 3,000+ measures evaluated are evaluated through the normal IRP process outside of this modified historical baseline approach Assess market characteristics & past program results Preliminary cost- effectiveness evaluation "Red""Yellow""Green"Terminate Yellow - fail Yellow - Pass Review existing DSM business plan Additional analysis of programs as necessary Development of a revised DSM business plan Initiate new programs. Continue, modify or terminate existing programs per business plan Develop energy savings, system coincident peak, load shapes, NEB's, measure lives Develop cost characteristics Identify potential measures Develop technical and economic potential DSM acquisition goal Business Plan acquisition goal Outside of the Scope of the Integrated Resource Planning Process Represented within the Integrated Resource Planning Process Ran measures against the avoided costs produced from model Evaluation of Measures • Based on levelized TRC, measures are categorized into “greens”, “yellows” and “reds” “Greens” automatically selected and entered into model “Yellows” are tested - range ended up being $90-$140/MWh “Reds” – no further testing • IRP process results in DSM goal and updated avoided costs y 63,119,081 kWh for 2010 y 65,643,844 kWh for 2011 y Avoided costs are used to evaluate new measures or technologies that may arise between IRPs Business Planning Process • Selected measures are further evaluated by program managers Market research Program bundling Program development • Budgets is prepared for individual programs Update economic potential savings acquisition Projection of FTE Estimate of participation levels, incentives, and other expenses • Business plan goal Historically, has been at or above IRP goal Where Are We At in the IRP Process? • Goals complete for 2010/2011 • Projection of 20 year DSM acquisition complete 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 201 0 201 2 201 4 2016 201 8 202 0 202 2 202 4 2026 202 8 regional local Where Are We At in the IRP Process? (cont.) • Written contribution for the IRP document Drafts to J. Powell and B. Folsom for review and edits Insert final numbers and changes Final document due end of March 2009 Preferred Resource Strategy James Gall 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Fifth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting March 25, 2009 2 January Capacity L&R Balance Annual Resource Capacity at Winter Peak Load 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/PM, w/o Maint Load is net 2007 Conservation Levels 3 August Capacity L&R Balance Annual Resource Capacity at August Peak Load 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/PM, w/o Maint Load is net 2007 Conservation Levels 4 Annual Energy L&R Balance Annual Average Energy Resources vs Load 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Hydro Base Thermal Contracts Peakers Load Load w/ Cont. Load is net 2007 Conservation Levels 5 PRiSM Objective Function Linear program solving for the optimal resource strategy to meet resource deficits over planning horizon. Model selects its resources to reduce cost, risk, or both. Minimize: Total Power Supply Cost on NPV basis (2010-2050 with emphasis on first 11 years of the plan) Subject to: • Risk Level • Capacity Need +/- deviation • Energy Need +/- deviation • Renewable Portfolio Standards • Resource Limitations and Timing • Greenhouse Gas Limits 6 Efficient Frontier Demonstrates the trade off of cost and risk Avoided Cost Calculation Ri s k Least Cost Portfolio Least Risk Portfolio Find least cost portfolio at a given level of risk Short-Term Market Market + Capacity + RPS = Avoided Cost Capacity Need + Risk Cost 7 $200 $220 $240 $260 $280 $300 $320 $340 $360 3,320 3,340 3,360 3,380 3,400 3,420 3,440 3,460 3,480 3,500 3,520 2010-2020 Total Cost NPV 20 2 0 S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n Efficient Frontier No New Resources (No DSM)Build to Capacity Requirements (No DSM) Build to Capacity/RPS Requirements (No DSM)Preferred Resource Strategy Risk Reduction Strategies on Efficient Frontier 8 $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r M W h Carbon Cost RPS Capacity Mid-Columbia Avoided Resource Cost Levelized Costs Mid-C: $68.22 Capacity: $11.66 RPS: $5.76 Carbon: $25.52 Total: $111.15 9 2007 Preferred Resource Strategy (Capacity MW) Year CCCT SCCT Wind Hydro Upgrades Non-Wind Renewables Low Carbon Baseload DSM T&D Efficiency 2008 - - - - - - 9 - 2009 - - - - - - 10 - 2010 275 - - - - - 11 - 2011 - - - - 20 - 12 - 2012 - - - - 10 - 13 - 2013 - - - - - - 14 - 2014 - - 100 - 5 - 15 - 2015 - - - - - - 15 - 2016 - - 100 - - - 16 - 2017 - - 100 - - - 16 - 2018 - - - - - - 16 - 2019 - - - - - - 16 - 2020 81 - - - 10 - 17 - 2021 32 - - - 10 - 17 - 2022 38 - - - 5 - 17 - 2023 15 - - - - - 18 - 2024 58 - - - - - 18 - 2025 38 - - - - - 18 - 2026 35 - - - - - 19 - 2027 305 - - - - - 19 - 2008-2017 275 - 300 - 35 - 130 - 2008-2027 877 - 300 - 60 - 304 - 10 Preferred Resource Strategy (Capacity MW) Year CCCT SCCT Wind Hydro Upgrades Low Carbon Baseload DSM T&D Effic. 2010 - - - - - 12 1 2011 - - - - - 12 1 2012 - - - - - 12 1 2013 - - 150 - - 12 1 2014 - - - 1 - 14 1 2015 - - - 1 - 14 - 2016 - - - - - 15 - 2017 - - - 1 - 15 - 2018 - - - - - 15 - 2019 - - - - - 17 - 2020 250 - 150 - - 17 - 2021 - - - 2 - 18 - 2022 - - - - - 18 - 2023 - - 50 - - 20 - 2024 - - - - - 20 - 2025 250 - - - - 21 - 2026 - - - - - 21 - 2027 250 - - - - 23 - 2028 - - - - - 23 - 2029 - - - - - 24 - 2010-2019 - - 150 3 - 137 5 2010-2029 750 - 350 5 - 339 5 11 January Capacity L&R w/ New Resources 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW Existing Resources & Contacts New Gas CCCT Conservation Little/Upper Falls Upgrades Distribution Efficiencies Peak Load + Planning Margin Peak Load Market Purchases 12 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 MW August Capacity L&R w/ New Resources Existing Resources & Contacts New Gas CCCT Conservation Little/Upper Falls Upgrades Distribution Efficiencies Peak Load + Planning Margin Peak Load Market Purchases 13 Annual Energy L&R w/ New Resources 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Existing Resources & Contacts New Gas CCCT Wind (350 MW) Conservation Little/Upper Falls Upgrades Distribution Efficiencies Avg Load at 80% Confidence & Hydro at 80 Percentile Avg Load 14 Washington State RPS Compliance - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Reardan Clark Fork River Upgrades Spokane River Upgrades REC Purchase REC Purchase Renewable Requirement Little/Upper Falls Upgrades REC Sales New Wind 15 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Sh o r t T o n s ( T h o u s a n d s ) - 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 CO 2 T o n s p e r M W h Total Resources Existing Resources Tons per MWh of Load 16 Total Cost of Carbon Legislation $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Mi l l i o n s ( 2 0 0 9 $ ) 100% Allocation 80% Allocation 60% Allocation 40% Allocation 20% Allocation 0% Allocation Drivers of Higher Costs: •Reduction in Colstrip energy •Higher electric market prices •Higher natural gas prices •Potential to be 30% of Power Costs 17 Portfolio Cost Duration Curve (2009$) $- $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% In c r e m e n t a l P o w e r S u p p l y E x p e n s e ( B i l l i o n s ) 2020 2015 2010 Scenarios James Gall & John Lyons 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Fifth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting March 25, 2009 2 Market Scenarios Market Futures (Stochastic) Base Case No Carbon Costs Market Scenarios (Deterministic) High Natural Gas Prices Low Natural Gas Prices Solar Saturation (“Buck-a-Watt”) 3 No Carbon Cost Scenario Avista Portfolio Cost versus Risk Analysis Portfolios: Market reliance Build to capacity requirements Least cost strategy Efficient frontier 4 Avista Portfolio Scenarios Fundamental Changes No State RPS Alternative load forecasts (High/Low) Least carbon emissions Capital Cost Sensitivities Required capital cost to build wind in 2010 Required capital cost to move from CCCT to SCCT Resource Availability Large hydro upgrades, with capital cost sensitivities Other renewables (Biomass/Geothermal/Hydro Upgrades) Nuclear Market Scenarios 6 Malin Natural Gas Prices (Nominal $) $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r D t h Base Case- Deterministic Base Case- Stochastic No GHG Reductions- Deterministic No GHG Reductions- Stochastic Solar Saturation High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices 7 Malin Nominal Levelized Price Forecast (2010-2029) Scenario $/Dth Base Case- Deterministic $8.63 Base Case- Stochastic $8.67 No GHG Reductions- Deterministic $7.86 No GHG Reductions- Stochastic $7.87 Solar Saturation $8.63 High Gas Prices $10.52 Low Gas Prices $6.88 2007 IRP Base Case $7.15 2007 Climate Stewardship Act Future $7.15 8 Mid-Columbia Electric Price Forecasts (2010-2029, Nominal $) $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 $ p e r M W h Base Case- Deterministic Base Case- Stochastic No GHG Reductions- Deterministic No GHG Reductions- Stochastic Solar Saturation High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices 9 Mid-Columbia Nominal Levelized Price Forecast Scenario $/MWh Base Case- Deterministic $86.36 Base Case- Stochastic $93.74 No GHG Reductions- Deterministic $63.93 No GHG Reductions- Stochastic $68.22 Solar Saturation $82.87 High Gas Prices $102.61 Low Gas Prices $67.48 2007 IRP Base Case $62.16 2007 Climate Stewardship Act Future $73.50 10 More on Solar Saturation Scenario Reduce capital cost by 80% Increased solar energy in 2029 from 4,243 aMW to 20,486 aMW or 75 GW of capacity Reduced Western Interconnect fuel costs by 18% or $10 billion in 2029 or $36.4 billion (PV 2009$) Reduced 2029 power generation greenhouse gas emissions by 10% Small reduction in Q2 and Q3 on-peak power prices, although higher solar saturation rates could further reduce on-peak power prices 11 Implied Market Heat Rates 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 bt u / k w h ( ( M i d - C / M A L I N - 0 . 0 8 ) / 1 0 0 0 Base Case- Deterministic Base Case- Stochastic No GHG Reductions Solar Reliance High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices 12 Mid-Columbia Levelized Price (2010-2029) Duration Curve $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% $/ M W h Base Case- Stochastic No GHG Reductions- Stochastic 13 Greenhouse Gas Prices ($/Ton) $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 2009 IRP Base Case No Carbon Costs Low Gas High Gas 2007 IRP Base Case 2007 IRP Climate Stew ardship Act Future 14 US WECC Greenhouse Gas Levels 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 450 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Mi l l i o n s o f S h o r t To n s Base Case- Deterministic No GHG Reductions Solar Saturation High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices No Carbon Costs Scenario 16 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 $240 $260 $280 $300 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 2010-2020 Total Cost NPV 20 2 0 S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n No Carbon Costs Scenario Base Case Efficient Frontier No Carbon Costs Efficient Frontier Market Reliance Capacity Only Least Cost Strategy PRS PRS 17 No CO2 Costs: Least Cost Strategy (MW) Year CCCT SCCT Wind Hydro Upgrades Low Carbon Baseload DSM T&D Effic. 2010 - - - - - 12 1 2011 - - - - - 12 1 2012 - - - - - 12 1 2013 - - 150 - - 12 1 2014 - - - - - 14 1 2015 - - - - - 14 - 2016 - - - - - 15 - 2017 - - - 1 - 15 - 2018 - - - - - 15 - 2019 - - - 1 - 17 - 2020 - 200 150 - - 17 - 2021 - - - - - 18 - 2022 - - - 2 - 18 - 2023 - 100 50 - - 20 - 2024 - - - - - 20 - 2025 - - - - - 21 - 2026 - 100 - - - 21 - 2027 - 300 - - - 23 - 2028 - - - - - 23 - 2029 - 100 - - - 24 - 2010-2019 - - 150 2 - 137 5 2010-2029 - 800 350 4 - 339 5 Fundamental Portfolio Changes 19 Alternative Load Forecasts (Energy) 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 aM W Base Load High Load Low Load 1.6% 2.6% 0.6% AAGR 20 High Load Least Cost Strategy (MW) Year CCCT SCCT Wind Hydro Upgrades Low Carbon Baseload DSM T&D Effic. 2010 - - - - - 12 1 2011 - - - - - 12 1 2012 - 60 - - - 14 1 2013 - - 200 - - 14 1 2014 - 100 - 1 - 15 1 2015 - - - 1 - 15 - 2016 - - - - - 17 - 2017 - - - 1 - 17 - 2018 - 100 - - - 18 - 2019 - - - - - 18 - 2020 - 100 200 - - 20 - 2021 250 - - 2 - 20 - 2022 - - - - - 21 - 2023 - - 50 - - 23 - 2024 - - - - - 23 - 2025 250 - 50 - - 24 - 2026 - - - - - 26 - 2027 500 - - - - 27 - 2028 - - 50 - - 29 - 2029 - - - - - 29 - 2010-2019 - 260 200 3 - 150 5 2010-2029 1,000 360 550 5 - 389 5 21 Low Load Least Cost Strategy (MW) Year CCCT SCCT Wind Hydro Upgrades Low Carbon Baseload DSM T&D Effic. 2010 - - - - - 12 1 2011 - - - - - 12 1 2012 - - - - - 12 1 2013 - - 150 - - 12 1 2014 - - - 1 - 14 1 2015 - - - 1 - 14 - 2016 - - - - - 15 - 2017 - - - 1 - 15 - 2018 - - - - - 15 - 2019 - - - - - 17 - 2020 - - 100 - - 17 - 2021 - - - - - 18 - 2022 - - - - - 18 - 2023 - - - - - 20 - 2024 - - - - - 20 - 2025 - - - - - 21 - 2026 250 - - - - 21 - 2027 - - - - - 23 - 2028 - 100 - - - 23 - 2029 - - - 2 - 24 - 2010-2019 - - 150 3 - 137 5 2010-2029 250 100 250 5 - 339 5 22 Least Avista Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario Model selected small renewable and hydro upgrades, simple cycle gas turbines and low carbon emitting resource (nuclear/carbon sequestration) Wind resources reduce Western Interconnect emissions, but likely would not significantly reduce Avista’s greenhouse gas emissions Carbon reductions could be from retiring resources such as Colstrip and Coyote Springs 2 Capital Cost Sensitivities 24 Wind Capital Cost Sensitivity Starting Point: 150 MW Wind by December 31, 2012 50 MW Reardan ($2,423 per kW) [2009$: $2,262] 100 MW Generic Wind ($2,513 kW) [2009$: $2,183] – Assumes Avista can only take advantage of 90% of tax credit beginning in 2011, due to not enough tax liability Scenario: At what capital cost does PRiSM select Reardan earlier? – Model selected Reardan in 2010, if capital costs are less than $1,877 per kW [2009$: $1,832] 25 CCCT Capital Cost Sensitivity Starting Point: 250 MW CCCT beginning January 1, 2020 Generic CCCT ($1,949 per kW) [2009$: $1,461] Scenario: At what price is CCCT no longer preferred on a least cost basis, if SCCT cost remain equal. – If cost are above ($2,051 per kW) [2009$: $1,535] the least cost strategy includes 300MW of LMS 100 in 2020-21 – Although, the 2020 standard deviation of power supply expense increases by 3.5% Resource Availability Scenarios 27 Large Hydro Upgrades Base Case does not include Cabinet Gorge Unit 5 or Long Lake 2nd PH/Unit 5 as options. These units were not considered options at this time, due to cost uncertainty. Assumption (2009$): - Cabinet Gorge 5: $1,478 kW - Long Lake U5: $2,168 kW- Long Lake 2nd PH: $2,000 kW This analysis first allows these units to be available at estimated costs, then studies how cost change impacts the PRS. 28 Least Cost Strategy: With Large Hydro Options (MW) Year CCCT SCCT Wind Hydro Upgrades Low Carbon Baseload DSM T&D Effic. 2010 - - - - - 12 1 2011 - - - - - 12 1 2012 - - - - - 12 1 2013 - - 150 - - 12 1 2014 - - - 1 - 14 1 2015 - - - 1 - 14 - 2016 - - - - - 15 - 2017 - - - 1 - 15 - 2018 - - - - - 15 - 2019 - - - - - 17 - 2020 - 100 100 60 - 17 - 2021 250 - - - - 18 - 2022 - - - - - 18 - 2023 - - 50 - - 20 - 2024 - - - - - 20 - 2025 - - - - - 21 - 2026 - - - - - 21 - 2027 400 - - - - 23 - 2028 - - - - - 23 - 2029 - - - 2 - 24 - 2010-2019 - - 150 3 - 137 5 2010-2029 650 100 300 65 - 339 5 29 Least Cost Strategy With Cabinet 4 and Long Lake 2nd PH (MW) Year CCCT SCCT Wind Hydro Upgrades Low Carbon Baseload DSM T&D Effic. 2010 - - - - - 12 1 2011 - - - - - 12 1 2012 - - - - - 12 1 2013 - - 150 - - 12 1 2014 - - - 1 - 14 1 2015 - - - 61 - 14 - 2016 - - - - - 15 - 2017 - - - 1 - 15 - 2018 - - - - - 15 - 2019 - - - - - 17 - 2020 - - 100 60 - 17 - 2021 250 - - - - 18 - 2022 - - - - - 18 - 2023 - - 50 - - 20 - 2024 - - - - - 20 - 2025 - - - - - 21 - 2026 - - - - - 21 - 2027 400 - - - - 23 - 2028 - - - - - 23 - 2029 - - - 2 - 24 - 2010-2019 - - 150 63 - 137 5 2010-2029 650 - 300 125 - 339 5 30 Large Hydro Upgrade Capital Cost Analysis Long Lake 2nd Powerhouse is favored by PRiSM, due to larger capacity size and similar cost per MWh - The plant is selected as least cost resource until the cost reaches $2,150 kW Cabinet Gorge U5 is not selected as a least cost resource, due to low capacity factor, if costs were less than $1,100 per kW, the plant would be selected While these resources have capital cost uncertainty, they are a viable alternative to reduce carbon emissions 31 Non-Wind Renewable Resources Available $180 $200 $220 $240 $260 $280 $300 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700 3,800 3,900 2010-2020 Total Cost NPV 20 2 0 S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n Non-wind renewables: - May lower cost -May lower annual cost volatility -But, are resources available at these costs? Base Case Efficient Frontier 32 Least Cost Strategy- Small Renewables Available (MW) Year CCCT SCCT Wind Non-Wind Renewable Hydro Upgrades Low Carbon Baseload DSM T&D Effic. 2010 - - - - - - 12 1 2011 - - - - - - 12 1 2012 - - - 10 - - 12 1 2013 - - 100 5 - - 12 1 2014 - - - 5 1 - 14 1 2015 - - - - - - 14 - 2016 - - - - 1 - 15 - 2017 - - - - 1 - 15 - 2018 - - - 5 - - 15 - 2019 - - - - - - 17 - 2020 - 100 100 7 2 - 17 - 2021 250 - - - - - 18 - 2022 - - - - - - 18 - 2023 - - - - - - 20 - 2024 - - 50 - - - 20 - 2025 - - - - - - 21 - 2026 - - - - - - 21 - 2027 400 - - - - - 23 - 2028 - - - - - - 23 - 2029 - - - - - - 24 - 2010-2019 - - 100 25 3 - 137 5 2010-2029 650 100 250 32 5 - 339 5 33 Nuclear If Nuclear was allowed as a resource beginning in 2020 at a 2009$ capital cost of $5,500 per kW in 250 MW sizes. At this cost it would not be selected in the Least Cost Strategy. Although, if costs were $3,800 per kW the resource would be selected If Avista were to acquire the plant in 100MW quantities it would be least cost at $4,000 per kW. 34 Capital Expense in Billions Dollars (Nominal 2010-29) $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 Pref e r r e d Re s o u r c e S t r a t e gy Base Ca se- M a r k e t Re liance High Loa d - LCS Low Load- LCS No RP S - L C S Large Hy dro Available- LCS LCS + Cabin e t #5 Least CO 2 (no r e t ire) Least CO2 (w/ r e tire) LCS a l l o w o t h e r ren e w a b l e s No CO2 Cost (PR S ) No CO 2 C o s t ( L CS) No CO 2 Co st (Market Reliance) 35 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 $9,000 Prefe rred Resou rce Strate g y Base Ca s e - Mark e t R e l i a n c e High Load- LCS Low Load- LCS No R P S - L C S Large H y dro Avai l a b le- LCS LCS + Cab i net #5 Least CO2 (no retire) Least C O2 (w/ re t i r e ) LCS a l low o ther renewables No CO 2 Co st (PRS) No C O 2 C o st (LCS) No CO2 Cost (Market Relian ce) PV R R 2 0 1 0 - 2 9 (M i l l i o n s ) $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 20 2 0 S t D e v ( M i l l i o n s ) Portfolio Cost/Risk Comparison PVRR Standard Deviation 36 Avista Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2029) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Preferred Resource Strategy Base Case- Market Reliance High Load- LCS Low Load- LCS No RPS- LCS Large Hydro Available- LCS LCS + Cabinet #5 Least CO2 (no retire) Least CO2 (w/ retire) LCS allow other renewables No CO2 Cost (PRS) No CO2 Cost (LCS) No CO2 Cost (Market Reliance) Greenhouse Gas (Thousands Tons) 2009 IRP Topics John Lyons 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Fifth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting March 25, 2009 2 Executive Summary Resource needs Modeling and results Electricity and natural gas market price forecasts Demand side management Preferred Resource Strategy Environmental issues Action items 3 Introduction & Stakeholder Involvement IRP process Public involvement 2009 IRP chapter overview 4 Loads and Resources Economic forecast Load forecast Forecast scenarios Overview of current resources Planning margins and resource requirements 5 Demand Side Management Overview of DSM programs – Historical – Residential – Commercial and Industrial DSM programs for 2009 IRP – Programs considered – Analytics – DSM business plan and future commitments 6 Environmental Issues Environmental initiatives and policies Avista’s Climate Change Committee State and federal renewable portfolio standards issues State and federal greenhouse gas legislation 7 Transmission & Distribution Planning Overview of Avista’s transmission system Regional transmission issues Transmission cost estimates Distribution efficiency projects Transmission efficiency projects 8 Modeling Approach Market modeling Key assumptions and inputs – Hydro – Fuel prices: coal and natural gas – Emissions: SO2 , NOx and greenhouse gases – Risk modeling – Resource alternatives PRiSM model 9 Market Modeling Results Base Case Market Scenarios Portfolio Scenarios – Fundamental changes – Capital cost sensitivities – Resource availability 10 Preferred Resource Strategy 2009 Preferred Resource Strategy Comparisons with prior plans Portfolio strategies and performance across scenarios 11 2009 IRP Action Items Progress on 2007 IRP Action Items 2009 Action Items – Renewables – DSM – Greenhouse gas issues – Modeling and forecasting enhancements – Transmission planning Avista’s 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 6 Agenda June 24, 2009 Topic Time Staff 1. Introductions 10:00 Storro 2. IRP Section Highlights 10:05 Kalich 3. Preferred Resource Strategy 10:30 Gall 4. Lunch 11:30 5. Preferred Resource Strategy 12:30 Kalich/Gall 6. IRP Action Items 1:30 Lyons 7. Adjourn 2:00 Draft Chapter Highlights Loads & Resources Weak economic growth is expected until 2011 in the service territory. Historic conservation acquisitions are included in the load forecast; higher acquisition levels anticipated in this IRP reduce the load forecast further. Annual electricity sales growth from 2010-2020 averages 1.6 percent over the next decade (199 aMW) and 1.8 percent over the entire 20-year forecast. Peak loads are expected to grow at 1.6 percent annual rate over the next 10 years (312 MW) and also 1.6 percent over the entire 20-year forecast. Avista’s resource deficits begin 2018; without conservation resources deficits would begin in 2016. Capacity deficiencies now are the predominate driver of resource need. Energy Efficiency Avista has offered conservation programs for over 30 years. The Company has acquired 138.5 aMW of electric-efficiency in the past three decades; an estimated 109 aMW is still in service, reducing overall load by approximately 10 percent. 20,000 additional customers heat their homes with natural gas today because of Avista’s first fuel-switching program. The Company has developed and maintains the infrastructure necessary to respond quickly to an energy efficiency ramp-up if another energy crisis or opportunity occurs. Approximately 3,000 concepts were evaluated by Avista’s demand-side management analysts for the 2009 IRP. 7 aMW of local and 2.9 aMW of regional conservation is expected in 2010 Conservation additions provide 26 percent of new supplies through 2020. 2009 IRP includes 0.3 aMW (3.3%) more annual conservation acquisition than 2007 plan, building on a 50% increase in the 2005 and another 25% in the 2007 IRP. Transmission & Distribution Avista has completed a $130 million transmission improvement project. Avista has over 2,200 miles of high voltage transmission. Avista remains actively involved in regional transmission planning efforts. The cost of selected new transmission lines and upgrades are included in the 2009 Preferred Resource Strategy. 2.7 aMW of distribution efficiencies are included in this IRP. Generation Resource Options Only resources with well known costs were considered in the PRS analysis, other resources were studied in sensitivities. Federal tax credits were extended to 1/1/2013 for wind and 1/1/2014 for non- wind renewables with a choice of the PTC ($20/mwh or 30% ITC) Large hydro upgrades at Long Lake and Cabinet Gorge are not considered as new resources, but will be further studied for inclusion in the 2011 IRP analysis. Small hydro upgrades and wood fired upgrades were considered in this IRP. Solar is included as resource option for this first time. Market Analysis Mid-Columbia electric and Malin natural gas prices are 27 and 20 percent higher than the 2007 IRP, primarily due to carbon legislation impacts Mid-Columbia electric prices are expected to be $79.56 per megawatt-hour over the next 20 years Malin natural gas prices are expected to be $7.36 per decatherm over the next 20 years Gas-fired resources continue to serve most new loads and take the place of coal generation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Future carbon credit prices will depend on reduction goals and the differential between natural gas and coal prices Carbon legislation increases total fuel expenses in the Western Interconnect by over 16 percent Preferred Resource Strategy Avista’s physical energy needs begin in 2018; capacity needs begin in 2016. Near-term resource acquisitions are driven by pending environmental regulation and risk reduction. The first supply-side resource acquisitions are 150 MW of wind by 2012. Conservation additions provide 26 percent of new supplies through 2020. A 250 MW natural gas-fired combined cycle project is required by 2020. Large hydro upgrades have the potential to change the preferred resource mix. The 2020 CCCT acquisition could be moved forward to as soon as 2015 without a significant impact on the preferred resource strategy. Draft Action Items Highlights Resource Additions & Analysis Continue to explore the potential for wind and non-renewable resources. Issue an RFP for turbines at Reardan and up to 100 MW of wind or other renewables in 2009. Finish studies regarding the costs and environmental benefits of the large hydro upgrades at Cabinet Gorge, Long Lake, Post Falls, and Monroe Street. Study potential locations for the natural gas fired resource identified to be on- line between 2015 and 2020. Demand Side Management Pursue American Reinvestment and Recovery Act funding and its affect on the amount of low income weatherization. Analyze and report on the results of the July 2007 through December 2009 demand response pilot in Moscow and Sandpoint. Environmental Policy Continue to study the potential impact of state and federal climate change legislation. Continue and report on the work of Avista’s Climate Change Committee. Modeling and Forecasting Enhancements Refine the stochastic model for cost driver relationships. Continue to refine the PRiSM model. Continue developing Loss of Load Probability and Sustained Peaking analysis for inclusion in the IRP process Transmission Planning Work to maintain/retain existing transmission rights on the Company’s transmission system, under applicable FERC policies, for transmission service to bundled retail native load. Continue involvement in BPA transmission practice processes and rate proceedings to minimize costs of integrating existing resources outside of the company’s service area. Continue participation in regional and sub-regional efforts to establish new regional transmission structures (ColumbiaGrid and other forums) to facilitate long-term expansion of the regional transmission system. Evaluate costs to integrate new resources across Avista’s service territory and from regions outside of the Northwest. Further study and implement distribution feeder rebuild projects to reduce system losses. Study transmission re-configurations to economical reduce system losses. 2009 IRP Preferred Resource Strategy 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Sixth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting June 24, 2009 2 L&R Balances Load is net 2007 Conservation Levels (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) - 200 400 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Winter Capacity Summer Capacity Annual Energy 3 Preferred Resource Strategy Approach Least Cost Strategy that meets 1. Capacity Needs 2. Energy Needs 3. RPS Requirements 4. Conservation Requirements 5. Emissions Regulation 6. Actionable 4 Flexible Strategy Preferred Resource Strategy Large Hydro Upgrades Are Cost Effective Non-Wind Renewables Become Abundant Is Nuclear a Solution Load Growth Rate Changes Capital Costs Change But, what if? 5 Conceptual Efficient Frontier Cost Ri s k Least Cost Least Risk PRSIn v a l i d P o r t f o l i o s 6 Efficient Frontier $150 $170 $190 $210 $230 $250 $270 $290 3,300 3,350 3,400 3,450 3,500 3,550 3,600 2010-2020 PV of Power Supply Cost 20 2 0 S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n P o w e r S u p p l y C o s t Capacity Only Least Cost Least Risk Efficient Frontier 7 Efficient Frontier Portfolios - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Least Cost - Mid Range + Least Risk MW CCCT T&D Efficiencies Wind Hydro Upgrades IGCC Coal IGCC Coal w/ Seq 8 2009 Preferred Resource Strategy Resource By the End of Year Nameplate (MW)Energy (aMW) NW Wind 2012 150.0 50.0 Distribution Efficiencies 2010-2015 5.0 2.0 Little Falls 1 2013 1.0 0.3 Little Falls 2 2014 1.0 0.3 Little Falls 4 2016 1.0 0.3 NW Wind 2019 150.0 50.0 CCCT 2019 250.0 225.0 Upper Falls 2020 2.0 1.0 NW Wind 2022 50.0 17.0 CCCT 2024 250.0 225.0 CCCT 2027 250.0 225.0 Conservation All Years 339.0 226.0 Total 1,449.0 1,019.9 9 Annual Conservation Acquisition - 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 regional local Local 90 aMW over first 10 years 226 aMW over 20 years Regional 29 aMW over first 10 years 59 aMW over 20 years 10 Local Energy Efficiency Targets Portfolio 2010 Target 2011 Target Limited Income Residential 1,977,099 2,056,183 Residential 20,518,584 21,339,327 Prescriptive Non-Residential 18,211,396 18,939,852 Site-Specific Non-Residential 24,936,765 25,934,236 Total Local Acquisition (kWh)65,643,844 68,269,598 Local 7.5 7.8 Regional 2.9 2.9 Total Acquisition (aMW)10.4 10.7 Draft NPCC 6th Plan Goal 11.2 12.4 11 Rate Base Additions for Capital Expenditures (Millions) Year Investment Year Investment 2010 4.9 2020 942.1 2011 5.0 2021 10.6 2012 5.1 2022 0.0 2013 278.1 2023 163.3 2014 7.7 2024 0.0 2015 2.3 2025 542.0 2016 0.0 2026 0.0 2017 1.7 2027 0.0 2018 0.0 2028 571.6 2019 0.0 2029 0.0 Totals * $0.3 billion thru 2019 $2.5 billion thru 2029 ** * Excludes conservation funding ** $1.0 billion NPV @ 8% discount rate 12 January Capacity L&R w/ New Resources MW - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Existing Resources Conservation Distribution Efficiencies Hydro Upgrades CCCT Wind Load + Planning Margin 13 August Capacity L&R w/ New Resources MW - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Existing Resources Conservation Distribution Efficiencies Hydro Upgrades CCCT Wind Load + Planning Margin 14 Annual Energy L&R w/ New Resources aM W - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Existing Resources Conservation Distribution Efficiencies Hydro Upgrades CCCT Wind Load + Contingency 15 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 20 1 0 20 1 2 20 1 4 20 1 6 20 1 8 20 2 0 20 2 2 20 2 4 20 2 6 20 2 8 aM W Washington State RPS Compliance Reardan 50- 100 MW Clark Fork River Upgrades Spokane River Upgrades REC Purchase REC Purchase/BankRenewable Requirement Little/Upper Falls Upgrades REC Sales New Wind 16 Power Supply Cost Variation $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 80% CL Low Expected Cost Tail Var 90 80% CL High Mi l l i o n s ( N o m i n a l ) 17 Power Supply Cost Ranges Present Value (Billions) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 80% CL (Low End) Low Gas Price Forecast Base Case- Stochastic Base Case- Deterministic High Gas Price Forecast 80% CL (High End) $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 Percent of 20 Year PV 18 Avista Generator GHG Emissions - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 - 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 New Resources Existing Resources Tons per MWh of Load Mi l l i o n S h o r t T o n s Sh o r t T o n s p e r M W h o f L o a d 19 Total Cost GHG Legislation Mi l l i o n s ( N o m i n a l ) $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 100% Allocation 80% Allocation 40% Allocation 0% Allocation 20 Future Power Supply Costs (Index: 2010= 100) - 50 100 150 200 250 300 20 0 0 20 0 2 20 0 4 20 0 6 20 0 8 20 1 0 20 1 2 20 1 4 20 1 6 20 1 8 20 2 0 20 2 2 20 2 4 20 2 6 20 2 8 Base Case No CO2 Costs Actual 21 Flexible Strategy What if large hydro upgrades are viable? What if non-wind renewables are abundant? Is Nuclear a solution? What are the impacts of load growth changes? What are the tipping points for key capital costs? wind capital cost <$1,830/kW, build early CCCT cost >$1,610/kW, consider SCCT High: 260/100 MW more gas/wind next 10 years Low: 250/50 MW less gas/wind in next 10 years eliminate 50/100 MW of wind/gas over 20 years? non-wind renewables replace some wind; could reduce gas by 100 MW least-cost if <=$4,000/kW (current range $5-$10k) 22 Schedule June 22: Internal draft released June 24: Final Technical Advisory Committee meeting July 1: “Big Picture” internal comments July 6: External draft released July 20: Comment deadline Aug 31: IRP Filed with Commissions ~April 2010: Begin 2011 IRP Process 2009 IRP Action Items John Lyons 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Sixth Technical Advisory Committee Meeting June 24, 2009 2 2007 IRP Action Items Renewable Energy Demand Side Management Emissions Modeling and Forecasting Enhancements Transmission Planning 3 Renewable Energy Continue studying wind potential in the Company’s service territory, possibly including the placement of anemometers at the most promising wind sites. Commission a study of Montana wind resources that are strategically located near existing Company transmission assets Learn more about non-wind renewable resources to satisfy renewable portfolio standard requirements and decrease the Company’s carbon footprint. 4 Demand Side Management Update processes and protocols for integrating energy efficiency programs into the IRP to improve and streamline the process. Study and quantify transmission and distribution efficiency concepts. Determine the potential impacts and costs of load management options currently being reviewed as part of the Heritage Project. Develop and quantify the long-term impacts of the newly signed contractual relationship with the Northwest Sustainable Energy for Economic Development organization. 5 Emissions Continue to evaluate the implications of new rules and regulations affecting power plant operations, most notably greenhouse gases. Continue to evaluate the merits of various carbon quantification methods and emissions markets. 6 Modeling and Forecasting Enhancements Study the potential for fixing natural gas prices through financial instruments, coal gasification, investments in gas fields, or other means. Continue studying the efficient frontier modeling approach to identify more and better uses for its information. Further enhance and refine the PRiSM LP model Continue to study the impact of climate on the load forecast. Monitor the following conditions relevant to the load forecast: large commercial load additions, Shoshone county mining developments, and the market penetration of electric cars. 7 Transmission Planning Work to maintain/retain existing transmission rights on the Company’s transmission system, under applicable FERC policies, for transmission service to bundled retail native load. Continue involvement in BPA transmission practice processes and rate proceedings to minimize costs of integrating existing resources outside of the company’s service area. Continue participation in regional and sub-regional efforts to establish new regional transmission structures (ColumbiaGrid and other forums) to facilitate long-term expansion of the regional transmission system. Evaluate costs to integrate new resources across Avista’s service territory and from regions outside of the Northwest. 8 2009 IRP Action Items Resource Additions and Analysis Demand Side Management Environmental Policies Modeling and Forecasting Enhancements Transmission and Distribution Planning 9 Resource Additions and Analysis Continue to explore the potential for wind and non-renewable resources. Issue an RFP for turbines at Reardan and up to 100 MW of wind or other renewables in 2009. Finish studies regarding the costs and environmental benefits of the large hydro upgrades at Cabinet Gorge, Long Lake, Post Falls, and Monroe Street. Study potential locations for the natural gas fired resource identified to be on-line between 2015 and 2020. 10 Demand Side Management Pursue American Reinvestment and Recovery Act funding Analyze and report on the results of the demand response pilot in Moscow and Sandpoint Processing and implementing I-937 requirements 11 Environmental Policies Continue to study the potential impact of state and federal climate change and renewable portfolio legislation Western Climate Initiative Waxman-Markey – American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 Continue to report on Avista’s Climate Change Committee 12 Modeling and Forecasting Enhancements Refine the stochastic model for cost driver relationships Continue to refine the PRiSM model Continue developing Loss of Load Probability and Sustained Peaking analysis for inclusion in the IRP process Study cooling degree day trend coefficient for inclusion in the load forecast 13 Transmission and Distribution Planning Work to maintain and retain existing transmission rights on Avista’s transmission system Continued involvement in BPA transmission processes and rate proceedings Continued participation in regional and sub-regional efforts to establish new regional transmission structures and to facilitate long-term expansion of the regional transmission system Evaluate costs to integrate new resources across Avista’s service territory and from regions outside of the Northwest Study and implement distribution feeder rebuild projects Study transmission re-configurations to reduce system losses Clint Kalich Manager of Resource Planning & Power Supply Analyses clint.kalich@avistacorp.com October 21, 2008 Defining Wind Integration & Overview of Avista Study •Defining Wind Integration •Overview of Avista’s System •Evaluating Overall Cost of Wind •Methodology Overview •Wind Integration Cost Components •Impact of Shorter Market Time Step •Benefit of Wind Feathering •Hydro Re-Dispatch Costs •Next Steps/Modeling Enhancements •Other Wind Integration Study Results Outline of Presentation Defining Wind Integration •Incremental Reserves (Avista Study Method) Regulation (<1 minute) Load following −covers timeframe from end of regulation up to next ramp (1 hour in WECC) Forecast error −difference between forecast and actual generation •Other Things Sometimes Called Wind Integration Shape of delivered energy Fuel savings from wind operations Capital costs Environmental attributes Bottom Line: Be Careful When Assuming 2 Studies are “Apples-to-Apples” Defining Wind Integration — A Graphical View Defining Wind Integration — A Graphical View Defining Wind Integration — A Graphical View Overview of Avista’s System (2010) •2,200 MW Control Area Peak •875 MW Minimum Load •1,200 MW Hydro Very flexible with generous short-term storage Provides majority of reserves for wind –regulation, spinning, supplemental •785 MW Gas Turbines 550 MW CCCT with 100 MW of spinning & supplemental reserves 210 MW (4 units) provide only supplemental reserves Remaining 7 (small) units cannot provide reserves Overview of Avista’s System, Cont •230 MW Coal & 50 MW Biomass Do not provide reserves •35 MW of Stateline Wind •~750 MW Contracts Rights 350 MW for “native load” 400 MW 3rd party resources to serve 3rd party loads in control area No reserve capabilities •~200 MW Capacity Contract Obligations Sales of AGC and spinning reserves for 3rd party load and wind Evaluating Overall Cost of Wind •Commodity Value of Energy Consider hourly pattern Wind doesn’t generate flat or at the operator’s control •Transmission Cost ~ 3 Times Traditional Resources •Impact on Operation of Other Owned Resources Fuel savings and/or impact on market sales & purchases •Incremental Reserve Obligations Avista definition of wind integration Regulation, load following, forecast error −load following and forecast error are greatly affected by spot market timeframe •Capital Recovery and Operation Costs •Environmental Attribute Values (green tags, reduced CO2) •Capacity Contribution (or lack thereof) Methodology Overview •Develop Hourly LP Model Of Avista System Model of both Real-Time and Pre-Schedule timeframes –pre-schedule commitment and market transactions “honored” in Real-Time Represent inherent flexibility and constraints –hydro storage and minimum flow –minimum up/down requirements –reserve capabilities and ramping rates –transmission paths –hydro spill and wind “feathering” Access to energy market for balancing and optimization –pre-schedule and real-time markets Methodology Overview (Cont.) •Run Model With and Without Wind Variability Over same historical timeframe (2002-04) –using actual loads –wind is priced in each hour at market –eliminates potential for wind shape to bias result –carry additional reserves in “With Wind” case •Compare System Values Change is spread over wind deliveries to arrive at an integration cost –per MWh (absolute or % of market price) –per kW-month (absolute or % of market price) Pre-Schedule Wind Model Delivery Schematic Generation Summary Resource Power Res Modeled Hour Noxon 402 152 2 Cabinet 236 0 Spokane 163 N/A Kettle Falls 50 N/A Colstrip 222 N/A Load Boulder 0 N/A Boulder Park 801 MW Noxon Rathdrum 0 24 0 MW 402 MW NE 0 0 Spokane River 152 Total Wind 103 N/A Kettle Falls 163 MW 98 SP Mid-C Hy 138 0 50 MW -44 MW CS2 0 0 SP Contracts Cab Gorge LT Purch 334 N/A KFalls CT 209 MW 236 MW Total 1,648 176 0 MW 0 R Feathered 0 540 SP Wind 168 SPL 0 MW Mid-C Market 0 MW Rathdrum 0 MW 103 0 MW 0 R 103 MW 24 R 0 FTR 138 MW 125 MW 0 MW 0 R 0 0 FTR 0 MW 0 SPL 0 FTR 0 -803 MW 0 MW 0 0 MW 0 R 222 Contracts Wind Northeast Hydro Market 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 100 MW C.Basin 200 MW 50/50 Mix 400 MW Div ersified 600 MW Div ersified $/ M W h W ind Shape Regulation Load Following Forecast Error Wind Integration Cost Components - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 100 MW C.Basin 200 MW 50/50 Mix 400 MW Div ersified 600 MW Div ersified $/ M W h One Hour Market 10-Minute Market Impact of Shorter Market Time Step - 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 100 MW C. Basin 200 MW 50/50 Mix 400 MW Div erse 600 MW Div erse $/ M W h $0.28MM $270/MW h $3.00MM $152/MW h $1.43MM $165/MW h $0.80MM $164/MW h Benefit of Wind Feathering Hydro Re-Dispatch Costs 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0% 42.0% 44.0% 100 MW C.Basin 200 MW 50/50 Mix 400 MW Div ersified 600 MW Div ersified Next Steps/Modeling Enhancements •Update With Latest Data Augment limited NW data sets with data from outside the NW Update to data through 2006 Use NPCC/BPA 3-Tier meso-scale wind data when available •Evaluate Regulation, Load Following, Forecast Errors Using Root-Mean-Squares Method •Search For Better Wind Forecasting Algorithms •Enhance Start-Up Cost Logic For Thermal Plants •Model Reserve Capabilities of Coal-Fired Plants •Evaluate Real-Time to Pre-Schedule Relationships Other Integration Study Results The End Clint Kalich Manager of Resource Planning & Power Supply Analyses clint.kalich@avistacorp.com May 22, 2009 Defining Wind Integration in the 2009 Integrated Resource Plan Agenda 10:00 Introductions 10:15 Wind Integration and the 2009 IRP 11:15 Questions/Suggestions for Further Work 12:00 Adjourn Defining Wind Integration and Its Costs 2009 Integrated Resource Plan •Defining Wind Integration •Wind Integration Cost Components •Preferred Resource Strategy Model (PRiSM) What is PRiSM? The Efficient Frontier − covers timeframe from end of regulation up to next ramp (1 hour in WECC) Wind modeling in 2009 IRP Recent enhancements to PRiSM •Questions Outline of Presentation Defining Wind Integration • Incremental Reserves (Avista Study Method) Regulation (<1 minute) Load following − covers timeframe from end of regulation up to next ramp (1 hour in WECC) Forecast error − difference between forecast and actual generation • Other Things Sometimes Called Wind Integration Shape of delivered energy Fuel savings from wind operations Capital costs Environmental attributes Bottom Line: Be Careful When Assuming 2 Studies are “Apples-to-Apples” Defining Wind Integration — A Graphical View Defining Wind Integration — A Graphical View Defining Wind Integration — A Graphical View 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 100 MW C.Basin 200 MW 50/50 Mix 400 MW Div ersified 600 MW Div ersified $/ M W h W ind Shape Regulation Load Following Forecast Error Wind Integration Cost Components PRiSM (Preferred Resource Strategy Model) 2009 Integrated Resource Plan What is PRiSM? Preferred Resource Strategy Model – Selects resource & conservation opportunities on an optimal cost and risk basis using a linear program (What’s Best!) Objective function is to either select resource strategies to meet our energy/capacity/market/RPS/CO2 requirements on a least cost and/or least risk basis Cost is measured by the present value of incremental fuel & O&M expenses and new capital investment Risk is measured by the variation in fuel, emissions, load, wind, forced outages, and variable O&M expenses in years 2019/29 Efficient Frontier- An Introduction 1 (stock portfolios) Ri s k Expected Return Stocks Bonds T-Bills Efficient Frontier- An Introduction (Avista IRP) Present Value of Cost Ma r k e t R i s k Nuclear CCCT Market/SCCT Wind Wind Modeling in 2009 IRP Various Wind Resource Options – Small wind (DG) – Northwest Wind (Tier 1 and Tier 2) – Montana Wind – Reardan Wind Project Wind Integration Cost of $3.50 per MWh (2009$) – Reflective of low penetration rate presently on system – Rates will rise as penetration increases New Enhancements Conservation measures are selected in model rather than an input (only measures that are between $xx/MWh & $xxx/MWh) Resources are now added in increments rather than any amount Use more precise method to estimate frontier curve Meets both summer & winter capacity requirements Ability to retire resources Ability to account for greenhouse gas caps More accurate ability to take into account post IRP time period Questions/Open Discussion 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Appendix B – 2009 Integrated Resource Planning Work Plan August 31, 2009 1 2009 Integrated Resource Planning Work Plan This Work Plan is provided in response to the WUTC’s Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) rules (WAC 480-100-238). It outlines the process Avista will follow to develop its 2009 Integrated Resource Plan to be filed with Washington and Idaho Commissions by August 31, 2009. Avista uses a public process to obtain technical expertise and guidance throughout the planning period through a series of public Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) meetings. The first of these meetings was held on May 14, 2008. The 2009 Integrated Resource Plan process will be similar to those used to produce the previous three published plans. Avista will be using AURORAxmp for electric market forecasting, resource valuation, and for conducting Monte-Carlo style risk analyses. Results from AURORAxmp will be used to select the Preferred Resource Strategy using the proprietary PRiSM 2.0 model. This tool fills future capacity and energy deficits using an efficient frontier approach to evaluate quantitative portfolio risk versus portfolio cost while accounting for environmental legislation. Qualitative risk will be evaluated in a separate analysis. The process to identify the Preferred Resource Strategy is shown in Exhibit 1 and the process time line is shown in Exhibit 2. For this plan, Avista intends to use more detailed and site-specific resource assumptions to be determined by an ongoing process to evaluate renewable, gas, and other supply-side resources. This plan will also study environmental costs, sustained peaking requirements, and detailed analyses of demand-side management programs. This IRP will develop a strategy that meets or exceeds renewable portfolio standards and greenhouse gas emissions legislation. It is Avista’s intention to “stress” or test the Preferred Resource Strategy against a variety of scenarios and stochastic futures. The TAC will be an important factor to determine the underlying assumptions used in the scenarios and futures. The IRP process is a very technical and data intensive process; public comments are welcome and will require input in a timely manner for appropriate inclusion into the process so the plan can be submitted according to the contemplated schedule. Tentative timeline for public Technical Advisory Committee meetings:  May 14, 2008 – Load & resource balance, climate change, loss of load probability analysis, work plan, and analytical process changes  August 27, 2008 – Risk and resource assumptions, scenarios and futures, and demand side management  October 22, 2008 – Load forecast, electric and gas price forecasts, load & resource forecast balance, and transmission cost studies  January 28, 2009 – Review of final modeling and assumptions, and draft PRS  March 25, 2009 – Review of scenarios and futures, and portfolio analysis  April 22, 2009 – Review of final PRS and action items  June 24, 2009 – Review of the 2009 IRP 2 2009 Electric IRP Draft Outline This section provides a draft outline of the major sections in the 2009 Electric IRP. This outline will be updated as IRP studies are completed and input from the Technical Advisory Committee has been received. 1. Executive Summary 2. Introduction and Stakeholder Involvement 3. Loads and Resources a. Economic Conditions b. Load Forecast c. Forecast Scenarios d. Supply Side Resources e. Reserve Margins f. Resource Requirements 4. Demand Side Management 5. Environmental Issues 6. Transmission Planning 7. Modeling Approach a. Assumptions and Inputs b. Risk Modeling c. Resource Alternatives d. The PRiSM Model 8. Market Modeling Approach a. Futures b. Scenarios c. Avoided Costs 9. Preferred Resource Strategy & Stress Analysis 10. Action Items 3 Resource Option Analysis Mark to market all generation and conservation opportunities Levelized Cost Calculation Base Case Expected Fuel Prices, Load, Transmission, Resources Develop Capacity Expansion for Western Interconnect Generate electric price forecast Intrinsic resource market valuation Preferred Resource Strategy Given constraints arrives at a least-cost solution defined in terms of present value of expected power supply expenses and risk, and generates an efficient frontier analysis. Model selects resources and conservation measures to meet capacity and energy deficits, greenhouse gas limits, and renewable & conservation portfolio standards Risk is defined as the variation in power supply expenses derived from stochastic variables Market Futures Stochastic Load, fuel price, hydro, wind generation, emissions, thermal forced outages. Market Scenario Deterministic Implicit market scenarios Separate capacity expansion for each scenario AURORAXMP Exhibit 1: Avista’s 2009 IRP Modeling Process PRiSM 2.1 4 Task Target Date Preferred Resource Strategy (PRS) Finalize load forecast 7/31/2008 Identify regional resource options for electric market price forecast 8/15/2008 Identify Avista’s supply & conservation resource options 8/31/2008 Update AURORAxmp database for electric market price forecast 9/29/2008 Select natural gas price forecast 9/29/2008 Finalize deterministic base case 10/17/2008 Finalize datasets/statistics variables for risk studies 10/31/2008 Draft transmission study due 10/31/2008 Demand-side management load shapes input into AURORA 10/31/2008 Base case stochastic study complete 11/30/2008 Finalize PRiSM 2.1 model 12/19/2008 Final transmission study due 12/31/2008 Develop efficient frontier & PRS 1/30/2009 Simulation of risk studies “futures” complete 2/10/2009 Simulate market scenarios in AURORAxmp 2/27/2009 Evaluate resource strategies against market futures & scenarios 3/20/2009 Present to TAC preliminary study and PRS 3/31/2009 Writing Tasks File 2009 integrated resource planning work plan 8/30/2008 Prepare report and appendix outline 9/15/2008 Prepare text drafts 4/15/2009 Prepare charts and tables 4/15/2009 Internal draft released 5/1/2009 External draft released 6/15/2009 Final editing and printing 8/1/2009 Final report distribution 8/30/2009 Exhibit 2: Avista’s 2009 IRP Timeline 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Appendix C – Residential and Non-residential Load Profiles August 31, 2009 Load Shape Description 1 Res Space Heat 2 Res AC 3 Res Lighting 4 Res Refrigeration 5 Res Water Heating 6 Res Dishwasher 7 Res Washer Dryer 8 Res Misc 9 Res Furnace Fan 10 NonRes Comp Air 11 NonRes Cooking 12 NonRes Space Cooling 13 NonRes Ext Lighting 14 NonRes Space Heating 15 NonRes Water Heating 16 NonRes Int Lighting 17 NonRes Misc 18 NonRes Motors 19 NonRes Office Equipment 20 NonRes Process 21 NonRes Refrigeration 22 NonRes Ventillation 23 Flat 24 NonRes Space Heat/Cool 25 NonRes Space Heat/Cool/Vent 26 NonRes LEED 27 NonRes Refrigerated Warehouses 28 Traffic Signal Red 29 Traffic Signal Green 30 Renewables 31 Multifamily Market Transformation 32 Res Heat/Cool 33 Res Energy Star Homes 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Appendix D – DSM Concepts Reaching the Evaluation Stage August 31, 2009 Segment Measure Non-Res Anti-Sweat Heat Controls Non-Res Auto-Closers for Coolers and Freezers Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Anchor-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Anchor-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Anchor-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Big Box-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Big Box-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Big Box-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-High End-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-High End-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-High End-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Hospital-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Hospital-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Hospital-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-K-12-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-K-12-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-K-12-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Large Off-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Large Off-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Large Off-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Lodging-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Lodging-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Lodging-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Medium Off-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Medium Off-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Medium Off-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-MIniMart-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-MIniMart-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Other-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Other-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-OtherHealth-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-OtherHealth-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-OtherHealth-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Other-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Restaurant-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Restaurant-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Restaurant-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Box-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Box-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Box-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Off-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Off-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Off-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Supermarket-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Supermarket-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Supermarket-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-University-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-University-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-University-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Warehouse-ElecHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Warehouse-GasHt-Retro Non-Res Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Warehouse-HtPmpHt-Retro Non-Res Controls Commission-New Non-Res EE Ice Maker from FEMP Baseline Non-Res EE Reach-In Freezer from E-Star Baseline Non-Res EE Reach-In Refrigerator from E-Star Baseline Non-Res EE Vending Machine from Average Baseline Non-Res EE Vending Machine from E-Star Baseline Non-Res Evaporative fan controller on walk-in Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-High End-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-High End-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-MIniMart-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Restaurant-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Off-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Supermarket-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-New-GasHt Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Floating Head Pressure Controller Non-Res Glass Doors on Open Display Cases (LT) Non-Res Glass Doors on Open Display Cases (MT) Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-University-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-University-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-University-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-University-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-University-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CFL-University-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Warehouse-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Warehouse-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Warehouse-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CFL-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CFL-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-Big Box-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CMH-Big Box-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CMH-Big Box-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CMH-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res INC to CMH-University-New-ElecHt Non-Res INC to CMH-University-New-GasHt Non-Res INC to CMH-University-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-New-ElecHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-New-GasHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-New-ElecHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-New-GasHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-New-ElecHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-New-GasHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T5HO-Other-New-ElecHt Non-Res Med MH to T5HO-Other-New-GasHt Non-Res Med MH to T5HO-Other-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res Med MH to T5HO-Supermarket-New-ElecHt Non-Res Med MH to T5HO-Supermarket-New-GasHt Non-Res Med MH to T5HO-Supermarket-New-HtPmpHt Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-New-GasHt Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-High End-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-High End-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Hospital-New-GasHt Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-OtherHealth-New-GasHt Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-New-GasHt Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-University-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-University-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Med MH to T8HP-University-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res Night Covers for Display Cases - Horizontal Non-Res Night Covers for Display Cases - Vertical Non-Res Outdoor Sign Ballast - 24 Non-Res Outdoor Sign Ballast - 24 - Retro Non-Res Outdoor Sign Ballast - Night Non-Res Outdoor Sign Ballast - Night - Retro Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-K-12-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-K-12-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-K-12-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Large Off-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Large Off-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Large Off-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Medium Off-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Medium Off-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Medium Off-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-OtherHealth-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-OtherHealth-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-OtherHealth-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Small Off-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Small Off-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-Small Off-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-University-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-University-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-University-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-K-12-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-K-12-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-K-12-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Large Off-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Large Off-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Large Off-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Medium Off-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Medium Off-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Medium Off-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-OtherHealth-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-OtherHealth-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-OtherHealth-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Small Off-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Small Off-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-Small Off-HtPmpHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-University-ElecHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-University-GasHt Non-Res Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-University-HtPmpHt Non-Res Replace 12 inch Green Incandescent Left Turn Bay with 12 inchGreen LED module Non-Res Replace 12 inch Green Incandescent Thru Lane with 12 inch Green LED module Non-Res Replace 12 inch Red Incandescent Left Turn Bay with 12 inch Red LED module Non-Res Replace 12 inch Red Incandescent Thru Lane with 12 inch Red LED module Non-Res Replace 8 inch Red Incandescent Left Turn Bay with 8 inch Red LED module Non-Res Replace 8 inch Red Incandescent Thru Lane with 8 inch Red LED module Non-Res Special Doors with Low/No Anti-Sweat Heat Non-Res Strip Curtains for Walk-in Boxes Non-Res T12-2 to T8HP-1-Other-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-2 to T8HP-1-Other-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-2 to T8HP-1-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-High End-New-GasHt Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-High End-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-High End-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-University-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-University-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-3 to T8HP-3-University-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-2-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 Non-Res T12-4 to T8HP-3-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 Non-Res Vending Machine Controller-Large Machine w/Illuminated Front Non-Res Vending Machine Controller-Small Machine or Machine without Illuminated Front Non-Res VSD Large Fan Non-Res VSD Medium fan Non-Res VSD Pump Non-Res VSD Small Fan Res Biradiant Oven Res Bottom Freezer - No Ice Res Energy Conservation School Program Res Energy Star Dishwasher (EF 68) - PNW DHW Fuel Average + NEB Waste Water Treatment Savings Res Energy Star Dishwasher (EF58) - PNW DHW Fuel Average + NEB of Waste Water Treatment Savings Res Energy Star Dishwasher (EF76) - PNW DHW Fuel Average + NEB Waste Water Treatment Savings Res Energy Star Dishwasher (EF85) - PNW DHW Fuel Average + NEB Waste Water Treatment Savings Res Heat Traps + Increased Insulation (3 1/2" foam) + Insulated Tank Bottom & Plastic Tank w/minimum 10 yr warranty Res Heat Traps + Increased Insulation (3" foam) + Insulated Tank Bottom w/minimum 10 year Warranty Res Heating System Maintenance (tune-up/filter) Res Improved Oven Insulation Res Improved Oven Seals Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/o CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/o CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/o CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/o CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 Res Manufactured Home Weatherization - Heating Zone 1 Res Manufactured Home Weatherization - Heating Zone 2 Res Multifamily Weatherization - Heating Zone 1 Res Multifamily Weatherization - Heating Zone 2 Res New MultiFamily Construction, DHW & Shower Preheat, Electric Resistance Res New MultiFamily Construction, DHW Preheat, Electric Resistance Res New MultiFamily Construction, Shower Preheat, Electric Resistance Res New Single Family Construction, DHW & Shower Preheat, Electric Resistance Res New Single Family Construction, DHW Preheat, Electric Resistance Res New Single Family Construction, Shower Preheat, Electric Resistance Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Post92 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Post92 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Air Source Heat Pump - Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Air Source Heat Pump - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Air Source Heat Pump - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC CAC Upgrade SEER w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 3 Res Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC HP Upgrade HSPF 8 w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 1 Res Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC HP Upgrade HSPF 8 w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 2 Res Post93 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 1 Res Post93 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 Res Post93 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 1 Res Post93 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 Res Pre94 Manufactured Home CAC Upgrade SEER w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 3 Res Pre94 Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res Pre94 Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res Pre94 Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res Pre94 Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res Pre94 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 1 Res Pre94 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 Res Pre94 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 1 Res Pre94 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 Res Reduced Oven Ventilation Rate Res SGC - Heating Zone 1 Res SGC - Heating Zone 2 Res SGC - Zone 1 Res SGC - Zone 2 Res SGC Manufactured Home CAC Upgrade SEER w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 3 Res SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 Res SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 Res SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating Res SGCSF - Heating Zone 1 Res SGCSF - Heating Zone 2 Res Side-by-Side Model - Ice Res Side-by-Side Model - No Ice Res Single Family Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 Res Single Family Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 Res Single Family Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 Res Single Family Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 Res Single Family Weatherization - Zone 1 Res Single Family Weatherization - Zone 2 Res Top Freezer - Ice Res Top Freezer - No Ice Res Weighted Average - Interior & Exterior Wattage - 92 Watt 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Appendix E – Integration of DSM within the 2009 Electric IRP August 31, 2009 Integration of DSM within the 2009 Electric IRP REPRESENTED WITHIN THE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS OUTSIDE OF THE SCOPE OF THE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS Assess market characteristics & past program results Preliminary cost- effectiveness evaluation "Red""Yellow""Green"Terminate Yellow -fail Yellow -Pass Review existing DSM business planAdditional analysis of programs as necessary Development of a revised DSM business plan Initiate new programs. Continue, modify or terminate existing programs per business plan Develop energy savings, system coincident peak, loadshape, NEB's, measure lives Develop cost characteristics Identify potential measures Develop technical and economic potential DSM acquisition goal Business Plan acquisition goal Evaluated against the updated avoided costs 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Appendix F – Achievable 20-Year Potential for Residential and Non-Residential DSM Programs August 31, 2009 (in 2009 $s) Meas #Segment Category Measure achievable potential (20 yr) levelized trc cost 2009 Life 46.5 Res Dishwash Energy Star Dishwasher (EF58) - PNW DHW Fuel Average + NEB of Waste Water Treatment Savings 835,250 0.00 9 52.5 Res Dishwash Energy Star Dishwasher (EF 68) - PNW DHW Fuel Average + NEB Waste Water Treatment Savings 835,250 0.01 9 58.5 Res Dishwash Energy Star Dishwasher (EF76) - PNW DHW Fuel Average + NEB Waste Water Treatment Savings 835,250 0.61 9 64.5 Res Dishwash Energy Star Dishwasher (EF85) - PNW DHW Fuel Average + NEB Waste Water Treatment Savings 835,250 1.98 9 104 Res Lighting Weighted Average - Interior & Exterior Wattage - 92 Watt 250,452,883 0.03 9 106 Res Appliance Bottom Freezer - No Ice 659,410 0.04 19 107 Res Appliance Side-by-Side Model - No Ice 659,410 0.03 19 108 Res Appliance Side-by-Side Model - Ice 659,410 0.52 19 109 Res Appliance Top Freezer - No Ice 659,410 0.24 19 110 Res Appliance Top Freezer - Ice 659,410 0.13 19 111 Res DHW New Single Family Construction, Shower Preheat, Electric Resistance 44,117 0.11 40 113 Res DHW New Single Family Construction, DHW & Shower Preheat, Electric Resistance 126,027 0.08 40 115 Res DHW New Single Family Construction, DHW Preheat, Electric Resistance 50,419 0.10 40 117 Res DHW New MultiFamily Construction, Shower Preheat, Electric Resistance 17,638 0.09 40 119 Res DHW New MultiFamily Construction, DHW & Shower Preheat, Electric Resistance 50,419 0.07 40 121 Res DHW New MultiFamily Construction, DHW Preheat, Electric Resistance 20,155 0.08 40 129 Res Cooking Reduced Oven Ventilation Rate 24,336 0.03 20 130 Res Cooking Improved Oven Insulation 23,712 0.11 20 131 Res Cooking Improved Oven Seals 7,904 0.86 20 132 Res Cooking Biradiant Oven 163,072 0.26 20 133 Res DHW Heat Traps + Increased Insulation (3" foam) + Insulated Tank Bottom w/minimum 10 year Warranty 92,976 0.03 12 134 Res DHW Heat Traps + Increased Insulation (3 1/2" foam) + Insulated Tank Bottom & Plastic Tank w/minimum 10 yr warranty 29,370 0.04 12 172 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 892,459 0.18 30 175 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 892,459 0.13 30 178 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 892,459 0.09 30 Acheiveable Potential (20-yr) for Res and Non-Res (excludes low-income/non-res site specific) 181 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 892,459 0.07 30 184 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.09 30 187 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.06 30 190 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.09 30 193 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.06 30 196 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 892,459 0.15 30 199 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 892,459 0.11 30 202 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 892,459 0.08 30 205 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 892,459 0.06 30 208 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.06 30 211 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.04 30 214 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.06 30 217 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.04 30 223 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Zonal Heating - Zone 2 892,459 0.18 30 226 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.11 30 229 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.07 30 232 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.11 30 235 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.07 30 238 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Air Source Heat Pump - Zone 1 892,459 0.14 30 241 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Air Source Heat Pump - Zone 2 892,459 0.10 30 244 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 892,459 0.17 30 247 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 892,459 0.12 30 250 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 892,459 0.17 30 256 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.11 30 259 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.08 30 262 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.11 30 265 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.08 30 268 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 892,459 0.15 30 271 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 892,459 0.11 30 274 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 892,459 0.14 30 277 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 892,459 0.11 30 280 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.08 30 283 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.06 30 286 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 892,459 0.08 30 289 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 892,459 0.06 30 295 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Zonal Heating - Zone 2 484,272 0.17 30 298 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 484,272 0.14 30 301 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 484,272 0.10 30 304 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 484,272 0.14 30 307 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 484,272 0.10 30 313 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Air Source Heat Pump - Zone 2 484,272 0.18 30 316 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 484,272 0.17 30 319 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 484,272 0.12 30 322 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 484,272 0.22 30 325 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 484,272 0.17 30 328 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 484,272 0.13 30 331 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 484,272 0.09 30 334 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 484,272 0.13 30 337 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 484,272 0.09 30 340 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 1 484,272 0.14 30 343 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Zonal Heating - Zone 2 484,272 0.10 30 346 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 1 484,272 0.18 30 349 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on Air Source HP - Zone 2 484,272 0.14 30 352 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 484,272 0.09 30 355 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 484,272 0.07 30 358 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 484,272 0.09 30 361 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Geothermal Heat Pump Retrofit w/PTCS on FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 484,272 0.07 30 367 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs Zonal Heating - Zone 2 484,272 0.17 30 370 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 1 484,272 0.16 30 373 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/oCAC - Zone 2 484,272 0.11 30 376 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 1 484,272 0.16 30 379 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Contruction Geothermal Heat Pump vs FAF w/CAC - Zone 2 484,272 0.11 30 388 Res MH HP Conv Pre94 Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 410,091 0.09 18 390 Res MH HP Conv Pre94 Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 527,124 0.07 18 392 Res MH HP Conv Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 341,756 0.10 18 394 Res MH HP Conv Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 450,441 0.08 18 396 Res MH HP Conv SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 217,385 0.14 18 398 Res MH HP Conv SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 300,697 0.10 18 400 Res MH HP Conv Pre94 Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 410,091 0.08 18 402 Res MH HP Conv Pre94 Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 527,124 0.07 18 404 Res MH HP Conv Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 341,756 0.10 18 406 Res MH HP Conv Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 450,441 0.08 18 408 Res MH HP Conv SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 217,385 0.13 18 410 Res MH HP Conv SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 12 - Heating 300,697 0.10 18 412 Res Shell SGC - Heating Zone 1 31,387 0.05 70 413 Res Shell SGC - Heating Zone 2 92,577 0.05 70 414 Res Shell Single Family Weatherization - Zone 1 2,263,516 0.04 45 415 Res Shell Single Family Weatherization - Zone 2 4,334,121 0.03 45 416 Res Shell Multifamily Weatherization - Heating Zone 1 1,060,596 0.05 45 417 Res Shell Multifamily Weatherization - Heating Zone 2 1,394,411 0.04 45 418 Res Shell SGCSF - Heating Zone 1 2,416,877 0.06 70 419 Res Shell SGCSF - Heating Zone 2 3,931,820 0.05 70 420 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.12 18 422 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.10 18 424 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.07 18 426 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.06 18 428 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.11 18 430 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.09 18 432 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.12 18 434 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.10 18 436 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.07 18 438 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.06 18 440 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.11 18 442 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.09 18 444 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.15 18 446 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.13 18 448 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.09 18 450 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.08 18 452 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.13 18 454 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.11 18 468 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.14 18 470 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.12 18 472 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.08 18 474 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.07 18 476 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.13 18 478 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.10 18 480 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.14 18 482 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.12 18 484 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.08 18 486 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.07 18 488 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.13 18 490 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.10 18 492 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.14 18 494 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.12 18 496 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.08 18 498 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.07 18 500 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.13 18 502 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.10 18 510 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.13 18 516 Res Shell Manufactured Home Weatherization - Heating Zone 1 6,151,873 0.07 25 517 Res Shell Manufactured Home Weatherization - Heating Zone 2 7,870,990 0.06 25 529 Res MF Duc Seal Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/o CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 60,322 0.05 20 530 Res MF Duc Seal Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/o CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 89,539 0.04 20 531 Res MF Duc Seal Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/o CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 32,672 0.10 20 532 Res MF Duc Seal Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/o CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 52,508 0.06 20 537 Res SF Com Single Family Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 222,025 0.26 5 539 Res SF Com Single Family Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 383,505 0.15 5 541 Res SF Com Single Family Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 1,183,530 0.05 20 543 Res SF Com Single Family Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 2,038,711 0.03 20 549 Res MH Duct Seal Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 37,507 0.09 20 551 Res MH Duct Seal Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 65,568 0.05 20 553 Res MH Com Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 17,514 0.28 5 555 Res MH Com Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 30,317 0.16 5 557 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 55,020 0.09 20 559 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 95,885 0.05 20 561 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Heat Zone 1 62,104 0.10 20 563 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home NonSGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Heat Zone 2 92,314 0.06 20 565 Res MH Duct Seal Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 20,752 0.15 20 567 Res MH Duct Seal Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 39,129 0.08 20 569 Res MH Com Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 9,692 0.51 5 571 Res MH Com Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 18,094 0.27 5 573 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 30,444 0.17 20 575 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 57,223 0.09 20 577 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Heat Zone 1 34,399 0.17 20 579 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home SGC Heat Pump - PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Heat Zone 2 55,088 0.11 20 593 Res MH Duct Seal Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 60,322 0.05 20 595 Res MH Duct Seal Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 89,539 0.04 20 601 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 60,322 0.05 20 603 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home NonSGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 89,539 0.04 20 605 Res MH Duct Seal Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 1 32,672 0.10 20 607 Res MH Duct Seal Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing Heat Zone 2 52,508 0.06 20 613 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 1 32,672 0.10 20 615 Res MH Duct Seal + Com Manufactured Home SGC Forced Air Furnace w/CAC - PTCS Duct Sealing and System Commissioning Heat Zone 2 52,508 0.06 20 617 Res Shell SGC - Zone 1 538,582 0.05 45 618 Res Shell SGC - Zone 2 1,089,896 0.04 45 625 Res HP Conv Pre94 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 1 484,272 0.09 30 628 Res HP Conv Pre94 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 484,272 0.07 30 631 Res HP Conv Pre94 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 1 484,272 0.09 30 634 Res HP Conv Pre94 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 484,272 0.07 30 643 Res HP Conv Post93 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 1 484,272 0.13 30 646 Res HP Conv Post93 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 484,272 0.09 30 649 Res HP Conv Post93 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 1 484,272 0.13 30 652 Res HP Conv Post93 NonSGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 484,272 0.09 30 658 Res HP Conv SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/o CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 484,272 0.13 30 664 Res HP Conv SGC Manufactured Home Convert FAF w/CAC to Energy Star Geothermal Heat Pump w/PTCS Specifications - Heating Zone 2 484,272 0.13 30 673 Res AC Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.56 18 674 Res AC Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.36 18 675 Res AC Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.47 18 676 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.17 18 678 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.10 18 680 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.10 18 682 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.06 18 684 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.16 18 686 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.09 18 688 Res AC Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.33 18 689 Res AC Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.21 18 690 Res AC Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.28 18 691 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.06 18 693 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.04 18 695 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.04 18 697 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.02 18 699 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.06 18 701 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.03 18 703 Res AC Upgrade Pre94 Manufactured Home CAC Upgrade SEER w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.28 18 704 Res AC Upgrade Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC CAC Upgrade SEER w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.29 18 705 Res AC Upgrade SGC Manufactured Home CAC Upgrade SEER w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.39 18 710 Res HP Upgrade Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC HP Upgrade HSPF 8 w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 1 892,459 0.09 18 712 Res HP Upgrade Post93 Manufactured Home NonSGC HP Upgrade HSPF 8 w/PTCS - Cooling Zone 2 892,459 0.04 18 718 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.10 18 720 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.08 18 722 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.06 18 724 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.05 18 726 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.09 18 728 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/o CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.07 18 730 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.10 18 732 Res HP Conv Pre80 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.08 18 734 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.06 18 736 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.05 18 738 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.09 18 740 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert FAF w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heating 484,272 0.07 18 746 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.11 18 748 Res HP Conv Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.10 18 752 Res HP Conv Post92 Single Family Construction Convert Zonal Heating w/CAC to HP HSPF 8/SEER 13 - Heat 484,272 0.15 18 766 Res AC Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.41 18 767 Res AC Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.26 18 768 Res AC Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction CAC Upgrade SEER - Cooling Zone 3 224,848 0.34 18 769 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.12 18 771 Res HP Upgrade Pre80 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.07 18 773 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.07 18 775 Res HP Upgrade Post79/Pre93 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.04 18 777 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 1 892,459 0.11 18 779 Res HP Upgrade Post92 Single Family Construction HP Upgrade HSPF 8 - Heating Zone 2 892,459 0.06 18 783 Res Lighting Energy Conservation School Program 13,728,000 0.02 7 785 Res HVAC Heating System Maintenance (tune-up/filter)416,000 0.00 12 21 Non-Res HVAC VSD Small Fan 13,000,000 0.16 15 22 Non-Res HVAC VSD Medium fan 13,000,000 0.10 15 23 Non-Res HVAC VSD Large Fan 13,000,000 0.07 15 24 Non-Res HVAC VSD Pump 13,000,000 0.11 15 27 Non-Res Energy Smart Night Covers for Display Cases - Vertical 9,464,000 0.02 5 28 Non-Res Energy Smart Night Covers for Display Cases - Horizontal 9,464,000 0.04 5 29 Non-Res Energy Smart Strip Curtains for Walk-in Boxes 9,464,000 0.00 4 30 Non-Res Energy Smart Glass Doors on Open Display Cases (LT)9,464,000 0.03 12 31 Non-Res Energy Smart Glass Doors on Open Display Cases (MT)9,464,000 0.08 12 34 Non-Res Energy Smart Special Doors with Low/No Anti-Sweat Heat 9,464,000 0.05 12 35 Non-Res Energy Smart Anti-Sweat Heat Controls 9,464,000 0.03 11 36 Non-Res Energy Smart Auto-Closers for Coolers and Freezers 9,464,000 0.01 8 37 Non-Res Energy Smart Evaporative fan controller on walk-in 9,464,000 0.07 5 40 Non-Res Energy Smart Floating Head Pressure Controller 9,464,000 0.04 12 44 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Large Off- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.07 8 45 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Medium Off- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.08 8 46 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Off- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.25 8 47 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Big Box- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.10 8 48 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Box- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.23 8 49 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-High End- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.17 8 50 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Anchor- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.06 8 51 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-K-12-GasHt- Retro 260,000 0.29 8 52 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-University- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.10 8 53 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Warehouse- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.28 8 54 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Supermarket- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.08 8 55 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-MIniMart- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.11 8 56 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Restaurant- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.10 8 57 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Lodging- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.08 8 58 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Hospital- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.06 8 59 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-OtherHealth- GasHt-Retro 260,000 0.07 8 60 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Other-GasHt- Retro 260,000 0.23 8 61 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Large Off- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.05 8 62 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Medium Off- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.05 8 63 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Off- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.15 8 64 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Big Box- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.09 8 65 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Box- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.17 8 66 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-High End- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.14 8 67 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Anchor- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.05 8 68 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-K-12-ElecHt- Retro 260,000 0.05 8 69 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-University- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.06 8 70 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Warehouse- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.11 8 71 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Supermarket- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.05 8 72 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-MIniMart- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.09 8 73 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Restaurant- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.08 8 74 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Lodging- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.05 8 75 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Hospital- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.04 8 76 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-OtherHealth- ElecHt-Retro 260,000 0.04 8 77 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Other-ElecHt- Retro 260,000 0.13 8 78 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Large Off- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.06 8 79 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Medium Off- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.07 8 80 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Off- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.19 8 81 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Big Box- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.09 8 82 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Small Box- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.20 8 83 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-High End- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.17 8 84 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Anchor- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.06 8 85 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-K-12- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.08 8 86 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-University- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.08 8 87 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Warehouse- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.17 8 88 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Supermarket- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.07 8 90 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Restaurant- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.10 8 91 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Lodging- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.06 8 92 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Hospital- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.05 8 93 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-OtherHealth- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.05 8 94 Non-Res HVAC Built-Up HVAC Controls Optimization-Other- HtPmpHt-Retro 260,000 0.17 8 115 Non-Res Controls Commission-New 21,960 0.07 12 117 Non-Res Traffic Lights Replace 12 inch Red Incandescent Left Turn Bay with 12 inch Red LED module 208,000 0.02 5 118 Non-Res Traffic Lights Replace 12 inch Green Incandescent Left Turn Bay with 12 inchGreen LED module 208,000 0.06 16 119 Non-Res Traffic Lights Replace 12 inch Red Incandescent Thru Lane with 12 inch Red LED module 208,000 0.02 6 120 Non-Res Traffic Lights Replace 12 inch Green Incandescent Thru Lane with 12 inch Green LED module 208,000 0.05 7 121 Non-Res Traffic Lights Replace 8 inch Red Incandescent Left Turn Bay with 8 inch Red LED module 208,000 0.04 5 123 Non-Res Traffic Lights Replace 8 inch Red Incandescent Thru Lane with 8 inch Red LED module 208,000 0.04 6 129 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-New-ElecHt 163,800 0.01 15 132 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-New-HtPmpHt 163,800 0.01 15 135 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-New-GasHt 163,800 0.01 15 138 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-New-ElecHt 163,800 0.01 15 141 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-New-HtPmpHt 163,800 0.01 15 144 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-New-GasHt 163,800 0.01 15 148 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-New-ElecHt 163,800 0.01 15 152 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-New-HtPmpHt 163,800 0.01 15 154 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Small Off-New-GasHt 602,173 0.01 15 156 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-New-GasHt 163,800 0.02 15 159 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Big Box-New-ElecHt 81,900 0.04 15 161 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-New-ElecHt 441,447 0.00 15 163 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Big Box-New-HtPmpHt 81,900 0.03 15 165 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-New-HtPmpHt 441,447 0.00 15 167 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Big Box-New-GasHt 81,900 0.04 15 169 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-New-GasHt 441,447 0.01 15 173 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-New-ElecHt 81,900 0.06 15 178 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-New-HtPmpHt 81,900 0.04 15 180 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-New-GasHt 602,173 0.01 15 183 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-New-GasHt 81,900 0.05 15 184 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-New-GasHt 441,447 0.01 15 187 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-New-ElecHt 81,900 0.06 15 192 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-New-HtPmpHt 81,900 0.05 15 195 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-2-High End-New-GasHt 602,173 0.00 15 197 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-New-GasHt 81,900 0.05 15 208 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-New-GasHt 602,173 0.01 15 211 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-New-GasHt 441,447 0.01 15 214 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-New-ElecHt 145,600 0.02 15 218 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-New-HtPmpHt 145,600 0.01 15 222 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-New-GasHt 145,600 0.03 15 225 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-University-New-ElecHt 145,600 0.08 15 228 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-University-New-HtPmpHt 145,600 0.06 15 231 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-University-New-GasHt 145,600 0.06 15 235 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Warehouse-New-ElecHt 655,200 0.01 15 237 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-New-ElecHt 441,447 0.00 15 240 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Warehouse-New-HtPmpHt 655,200 0.01 15 242 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-New-HtPmpHt 441,447 0.00 15 243 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-New-GasHt 602,173 0.00 15 245 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Warehouse-New-GasHt 655,200 0.02 15 247 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-New-GasHt 441,447 0.01 15 252 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T5HO-Supermarket-New-ElecHt 441,447 0.01 15 257 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T5HO-Supermarket-New-HtPmpHt 441,447 0.01 15 258 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Supermarket-New-GasHt 602,173 0.00 15 262 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T5HO-Supermarket-New-GasHt 441,447 0.01 15 265 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-New-ElecHt 81,900 0.03 15 269 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-New-HtPmpHt 81,900 0.03 15 271 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-MIniMart-New-GasHt 602,173 0.01 15 273 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-New-GasHt 81,900 0.04 15 278 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-New-ElecHt 72,800 0.01 15 283 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-New-HtPmpHt 72,800 0.01 15 285 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Restaurant-New-GasHt 602,173 0.01 15 288 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-New-GasHt 72,800 0.03 15 292 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-New-ElecHt 218,400 0.01 15 297 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-New-HtPmpHt 218,400 0.01 15 300 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-New-GasHt 602,173 0.01 15 302 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-New-GasHt 218,400 0.02 15 307 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-New-ElecHt 9,100 0.02 15 311 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-New-HtPmpHt 9,100 0.01 15 313 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-New-GasHt 602,173 0.02 15 315 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-New-GasHt 9,100 0.03 15 316 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Hospital-New-GasHt 441,447 0.02 15 319 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-New-ElecHt 9,100 0.01 15 324 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-New-HtPmpHt 9,100 0.01 15 329 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-New-GasHt 9,100 0.01 15 331 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-OtherHealth-New-GasHt 441,447 0.00 15 334 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-New-ElecHt 145,600 0.01 15 335 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T5HO-Other-New-ElecHt 441,447 0.01 15 336 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-New-ElecHt 441,447 0.00 15 339 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-New-HtPmpHt 145,600 0.01 15 340 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T5HO-Other-New-HtPmpHt 441,447 0.01 15 341 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-New-HtPmpHt 441,447 0.00 15 344 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-New-GasHt 145,600 0.01 15 345 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T5HO-Other-New-GasHt 441,447 0.02 15 346 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-New-GasHt 441,447 0.01 15 347 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 350 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.03 15 351 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.08 15 352 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.01 15 355 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.03 15 356 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.07 15 357 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 360 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.03 15 361 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.07 15 362 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 365 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.04 15 366 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.01 15 368 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 371 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.03 15 372 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro- HtPmpHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.01 15 374 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 377 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.04 15 378 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 380 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 383 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.06 15 384 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 386 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 389 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.04 15 390 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 392 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 395 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 163,800 0.05 15 396 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 398 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.04 15 401 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.05 15 402 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 405 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 441,447 0.04 15 406 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.04 15 409 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.05 15 410 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-3-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 412 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.12 15 414 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 441,447 0.13 15 415 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-3-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 417 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.09 15 419 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 441,447 0.09 15 420 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-3-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 422 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.09 15 424 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.10 15 425 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.05 15 427 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 81,900 0.09 15 430 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.04 15 432 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 81,900 0.07 15 435 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.05 15 437 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 81,900 0.08 15 440 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 442 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.11 15 445 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 447 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.08 15 450 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-4 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 452 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.08 15 455 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 458 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.09 15 459 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.25 15 460 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 463 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.06 15 464 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.16 15 465 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 468 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.07 15 469 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.16 15 470 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.15 15 473 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-University-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.06 15 475 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.11 15 478 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-University-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.04 15 480 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.11 15 483 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-University-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.05 15 485 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.14 15 487 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 489 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 441,447 0.09 15 490 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.11 15 492 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 494 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 441,447 0.07 15 495 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.10 15 497 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 499 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 441,447 0.07 15 500 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 502 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 81,900 0.04 15 504 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 506 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 81,900 0.04 15 508 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 510 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 81,900 0.04 15 512 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 514 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 81,900 0.05 15 515 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 517 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 81,900 0.04 15 518 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.04 15 520 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 81,900 0.05 15 521 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.07 15 522 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 72,800 0.06 15 523 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.04 15 524 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 72,800 0.03 15 525 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.05 15 526 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 72,800 0.05 15 527 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.12 15 529 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 218,400 0.05 15 530 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.10 15 532 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 218,400 0.04 15 533 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.09 15 535 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 218,400 0.05 15 536 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.18 15 538 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 9,100 0.07 15 539 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.08 15 541 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 9,100 0.03 15 542 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.08 15 544 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 9,100 0.05 15 545 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.04 15 547 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 9,100 0.04 15 548 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.04 15 550 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 9,100 0.03 15 551 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt- PRE1987 602,173 0.04 15 553 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 9,100 0.04 15 554 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.09 15 556 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-2 to T8HP-1-Other-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 557 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.04 15 558 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-ElecHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.06 15 559 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.08 15 561 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-2 to T8HP-1-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.02 15 562 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.03 15 563 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.05 15 564 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.08 15 566 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-2 to T8HP-1-Other-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 602,173 0.03 15 567 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 145,600 0.04 15 568 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-GasHt-PRE1987 441,447 0.05 15 569 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 572 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 163,800 0.03 15 573 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 574 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.08 15 575 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 578 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 163,800 0.03 15 579 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 580 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.08 15 581 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Large Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 584 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 163,800 0.03 15 585 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Large Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 586 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.08 15 587 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 589 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 590 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 163,800 0.04 15 591 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.10 15 592 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 594 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro- HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 595 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 163,800 0.03 15 596 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.09 15 597 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 599 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 600 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 163,800 0.04 15 601 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.09 15 602 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 604 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 605 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 163,800 0.06 15 606 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.14 15 608 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 610 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 611 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 163,800 0.04 15 612 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.10 15 614 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 616 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Small Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 617 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 163,800 0.05 15 618 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Off-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.10 15 620 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 622 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.07 15 624 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.05 15 625 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 627 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.06 15 629 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.04 15 630 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-3-Big Box-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 632 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.06 15 634 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.04 15 635 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.11 15 637 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.09 15 638 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.12 15 639 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.08 15 641 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 81,900 0.06 15 642 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.09 15 643 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.09 15 645 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.07 15 646 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.09 15 647 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.05 15 649 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-High End-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.11 15 650 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.09 15 652 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-High End-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.12 15 653 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.04 15 655 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.09 15 656 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.07 15 658 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.10 15 659 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-High End-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.06 15 661 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-High End-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.10 15 662 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.08 15 664 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-High End-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.11 15 665 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.05 15 667 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.10 15 668 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.08 15 670 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.11 15 671 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 673 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.08 15 674 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.06 15 676 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.08 15 677 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-3-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.06 15 679 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.09 15 680 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.07 15 682 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.10 15 683 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-2-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.05 15 686 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 145,600 0.09 15 687 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 688 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 441,447 0.24 15 689 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-2-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.04 15 692 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 145,600 0.06 15 693 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 694 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.16 15 695 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8T12-3 to T8HP-2-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.05 15 698 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 145,600 0.07 15 699 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-K-12-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.04 15 700 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 441,447 0.15 15 701 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-University-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.07 15 705 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-University-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.16 15 706 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-University-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.05 15 710 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-University-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.11 15 711 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-University-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.06 15 715 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-University-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.11 15 716 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.14 15 718 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 720 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.09 15 721 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.10 15 723 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 725 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.07 15 726 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.10 15 728 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 730 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.07 15 731 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 733 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 734 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 81,900 0.04 15 737 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 739 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Supermarket-Retro- HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 740 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 81,900 0.04 15 743 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 745 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.02 15 746 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 81,900 0.05 15 749 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 751 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 752 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.05 15 754 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.07 15 755 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 757 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.01 15 758 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.04 15 760 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.05 15 761 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-4 to T8HP-2-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 763 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12VHO to T8HP-4-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.03 15 764 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 81,900 0.05 15 766 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.07 15 767 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.06 15 768 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 72,800 0.06 15 770 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.04 15 771 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 72,800 0.03 15 773 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.06 15 774 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 72,800 0.05 15 776 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.12 15 778 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 218,400 0.05 15 779 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.09 15 781 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 218,400 0.04 15 782 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.09 15 784 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 218,400 0.05 15 785 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.17 15 787 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 9,100 0.07 15 788 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.08 15 790 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1987_1994 9,100 0.03 15 791 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.08 15 793 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 9,100 0.05 15 794 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.04 15 796 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 9,100 0.04 15 797 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.04 15 799 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 9,100 0.03 15 800 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-3-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.04 15 802 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 9,100 0.04 15 803 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.08 15 807 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-ElecHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.05 15 808 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 602,173 0.07 15 812 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.05 15 813 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1987_1994 602,173 0.08 15 817 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Other-Retro-GasHt- V1987_1994 441,447 0.05 15 818 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.07 15 821 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 163,800 0.03 15 822 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.08 15 823 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.07 15 826 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 163,800 0.03 15 827 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.08 15 828 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.07 15 831 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Large Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 163,800 0.03 15 832 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Large Off-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.08 15 833 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.09 15 836 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 163,800 0.04 15 837 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.10 15 838 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 841 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 163,800 0.03 15 842 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 843 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 846 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 163,800 0.04 15 847 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Medium Off-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 848 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.03 15 851 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 163,800 0.06 15 853 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.03 15 856 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 163,800 0.04 15 858 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-2-Small Off-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.04 15 861 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Small Off-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 163,800 0.05 15 863 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.07 15 865 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.06 15 867 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.05 15 868 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.06 15 870 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.05 15 872 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.04 15 873 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 602,173 0.06 15 875 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Big Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.05 15 877 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Big Box-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.04 15 878 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.10 15 881 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.08 15 882 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.12 15 883 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 886 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 81,900 0.06 15 887 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 888 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 891 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-Small Box-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.07 15 892 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Small Box-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 893 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-2-High End-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.03 15 895 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.08 15 898 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-2-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.02 15 900 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.07 15 903 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 T12-3 to T8HP-2-High End-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.04 15 905 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-High End-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.08 15 908 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 602,173 0.10 15 911 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.11 15 912 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 915 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.08 15 916 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 602,173 0.09 15 919 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Anchor-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.10 15 920 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 602,173 0.21 15 923 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.08 15 924 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 441,447 0.23 15 925 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 602,173 0.14 15 928 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.06 15 929 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.16 15 930 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 602,173 0.14 15 933 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.06 15 934 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-K-12-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 441,447 0.15 15 935 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.14 15 937 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-University-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.06 15 939 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.10 15 941 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-University-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.04 15 943 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-University-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.10 15 945 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-University-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.05 15 947 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.14 15 949 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 655,200 0.06 15 951 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 952 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.10 15 954 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 655,200 0.04 15 956 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.07 15 957 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.10 15 959 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 655,200 0.05 15 961 Non-Res Lighting-HID Large MH to T5HO-Warehouse-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.07 15 962 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.05 15 966 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.06 15 967 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.05 15 971 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.05 15 972 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.06 15 976 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Supermarket-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.06 15 977 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.06 15 979 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.05 15 980 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.07 15 981 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.05 15 983 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.04 15 984 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.05 15 985 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.07 15 987 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CMH-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 81,900 0.05 15 988 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-MIniMart-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.07 15 989 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.14 15 992 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 72,800 0.06 15 994 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 997 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 72,800 0.03 15 999 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.09 15 1002 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Restaurant-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 72,800 0.05 15 1004 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.12 15 1006 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 218,400 0.05 15 1008 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.09 15 1010 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 218,400 0.04 15 1012 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Lodging-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.09 15 1014 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Lodging-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 218,400 0.05 15 1016 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.17 15 1018 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 9,100 0.07 15 1019 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.19 15 1020 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 1022 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 9,100 0.03 15 1023 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.08 15 1024 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 1026 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Hospital-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 9,100 0.05 15 1027 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Hospital-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 1028 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.09 15 1030 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 9,100 0.04 15 1031 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-ElecHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.10 15 1032 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 1034 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 9,100 0.03 15 1035 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 1036 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 1038 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 9,100 0.04 15 1039 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-OtherHealth-Retro-GasHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 1040 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 602,173 0.08 15 1042 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.03 15 1043 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Other-Retro-ElecHt-V1995_2001 441,447 0.09 15 1044 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8 F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 602,173 0.07 15 1046 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.03 15 1047 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Other-Retro-HtPmpHt- V1995_2001 441,447 0.08 15 1048 Non-Res Lighting-T12T8F96T12 to T8HP-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 602,173 0.07 15 1050 Non-Res Lighting-CFL INC to CFL-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 145,600 0.03 15 1051 Non-Res Lighting-HID Med MH to T8HP-Other-Retro-GasHt-V1995_2001 441,447 0.08 15 1058 Non-Res Lighting-Signs Outdoor Sign Ballast - Night 546,000 0.01 13 1059 Non-Res Lighting-Signs Outdoor Sign Ballast - 24 546,000 0.01 7 1060 Non-Res Lighting-Signs Outdoor Sign Ballast - Night - Retro 546,000 0.11 13 1061 Non-Res Lighting-Signs Outdoor Sign Ballast - 24 - Retro 546,000 0.09 7 1065 Non-Res EE Reach-In Refrigerator from E-Star Baseline 189,800 0.03 9 1067 Non-Res EE Reach-In Freezer from E-Star Baseline 351,800 0.01 9 1070 Non-Res EE Ice Maker from FEMP Baseline 82,043 0.07 9 1071 Non-Res EE Vending Machine from Average Baseline 147,056 0.04 9 1072 Non-Res EE Vending Machine from E-Star Baseline 115,544 0.02 9 1146 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Large Off-ElecHt 60,667 0.09 21 1147 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Large Off-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.08 21 1148 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Large Off-GasHt 60,667 0.08 21 1149 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Medium Off-ElecHt 60,667 0.13 21 1150 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Medium Off-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.12 21 1151 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Medium Off-GasHt 60,667 0.11 21 1152 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Small Off-ElecHt 60,667 0.18 21 1153 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Small Off-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.13 21 1154 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- Small Off-GasHt 60,667 0.11 21 1155 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-K- 12-ElecHt 60,667 0.22 21 1156 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-K- 12-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.15 21 1157 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New-K- 12-GasHt 60,667 0.13 21 1158 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- University-ElecHt 60,667 0.17 21 1159 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- University-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.13 21 1160 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- University-GasHt 60,667 0.11 21 1161 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- OtherHealth-ElecHt 60,667 0.11 21 1162 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- OtherHealth-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.10 21 1163 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-New- OtherHealth-GasHt 60,667 0.10 21 1164 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Large Off-ElecHt 60,667 0.09 21 1165 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Large Off-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.08 21 1166 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Large Off-GasHt 60,667 0.08 21 1167 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Medium Off-ElecHt 60,667 0.13 21 1168 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Medium Off-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.12 21 1169 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Medium Off-GasHt 60,667 0.11 21 1170 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Small Off-ElecHt 60,667 0.18 21 1171 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Small Off-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.13 21 1172 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- Small Off-GasHt 60,667 0.11 21 1173 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-K- 12-ElecHt 60,667 0.23 21 1174 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-K- 12-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.15 21 1175 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR-K- 12-GasHt 60,667 0.13 21 1176 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- University-ElecHt 60,667 0.18 21 1177 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- University-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.13 21 1178 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- University-GasHt 60,667 0.11 21 1179 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- OtherHealth-ElecHt 60,667 0.11 21 1180 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- OtherHealth-HtPmpHt 60,667 0.10 21 1181 Non-Res Lighting-Daylighting Perimeter Day lighting Controls (Advanced)-NR- OtherHealth-GasHt 60,667 0.10 21 1290 Non-Res Appliances Vending Machine Controller-Large Machine w/Illuminated Front 49,920 0.02 10 1291 Non-Res Appliances Vending Machine Controller-Small Machine or Machine without Illuminated Front 33,280 0.03 10 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Appendix G – Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program August 31, 2009 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Programs to Reduce Energy Loss across Avista’s Distribution System System Efficiencies Team Date 4/21/2009 Heather Cummins Mark Weiss Rodney Pickett Dave Defelice Curt Kirkeby Ross Taylor Greg Smith Jill Ham Will Stone John McClain Authored by: John Gibson Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Executive Summary Avista’s Distribution System consists of approximately three hundred and thirty feeders covering a geographical area of 30,000 square miles. The distribution feeders range in distribution voltage from 4.16 kV to 34.5 kV phase to phase and are typically rated to meet 10 MVA load for the typical 13.2 kV feeder. The distribution feeders reside in urban, suburban and rural areas and can range in length from 3 to 73 miles. The distribution feeders are typically designed to provide service for approximately one to two thousand residential customers. The engineering analysis summarized in this report determines losses across the distribution system for the following program areas: 1) Conductor losses, 2) Distribution Transformers, 3) Secondary Districts and 4) VAr compensation. Although additional programs like phase balancing and Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) could have been included in the analysis, they were intentionally left out since daily operational activity may negate the energy savings. The energy loss, capital investment and reduction in O&M costs resulting from the individual efficiencies programs were combined on a per feeder basis. This approach provided a means to rank and compare energy savings and net resource cost for each feeder. The efficiency analysis of the distribution feeders evaluated the existing energy losses and energy savings resulting from implementing the program upgrades. The study identified the existing distribution system losses to be approximately 3.6%. Assuming, all of the distribution feeders studied were economically viable to upgrade, the resulting system energy losses would be reduced by 2%. The total energy savings corresponding to the implementation of the upgrades would correspond to an energy savings of approximately 29.2 MW on peak and 13.5 MW on average. Although it may not be prudent to upgrade all of the distribution feeders, this study ranks the feeders by diminishing economic return. The economic metric used to rank feeders was net resource cost. The net resource cost for each feeder was determined for O&M offsets forecasted on a five, ten and fifteen year time horizon. This variable O&M forecast provided a means to filter on or off the number of economically viable feeder upgrades. Other criteria used to reduce the number of viable feeder upgrade projects included capital investment greater then $0.5 million and net resource cost less then $100 per Mwh. The feeder upgrade program by itself falls short of being a strategic vision. However, it can be used as a first step towards a broader strategic view to be included in programs like capital budgeting, energy efficiency, and O&M reduction. A more robust corporate strategic vision for aging infrastructure rehabilitation would need to incorporate the following elements: 1) Movement of bulk power across our transmission system, 2) Optimum distribution topologies, 3) Substation size, locations and architectures, and 4) Reliable forecasts of geographical centered load growth. Once these elements are incorporated into the existing feeder upgrade program, a long term plan for Avista’s electric infrastructure can be developed to move infrastructure upgrades from a tactical or reactive approach to a planned replacement strategy. 2 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Introduction Objective The objective of the system efficiency analysis was to obtain a first order of magnitude assessment of energy savings across Avista’s electric distribution system. The analysis was constructed to address the following two questions: 1) How much energy savings is available across Avista’s distribution system? 2) Which feeders provide the most cost-effective for the least investment across the system? Concession The analysis did not include operational or design options to assist in refining cost estimates or selecting feeders for upgrade. Also, this analysis focused solely on the distribution system and did not consider system changes which may incorporate the installation of substations or new transmission lines. Background Avista’s electric distribution system consists of approximately three hundred and thirty feeders covering a geographical area of 30,000 square miles. The distribution feeders range in voltage from 4.16 kV to 34.5 kV phase to phase and are typically rated to meet 10 MVA load for a typical 13.2 kV feeder. The distribution feeders reside in urban, suburban and rural areas and can range in length from 3 to 73 miles. The distribution feeders are typically designed to provide service from one to two thousand residential customers. Past efficiency studies on Avista’s distribution system have typically focused on either individual reinforcement projects or specific equipment upgrades. This current analysis differs from past analysis by combining several efficiency programs across most of Avista’s distribution feeders. The results of the analysis provided an overall assessment of the energy savings on a per feeder basis. Also, this analysis incorporated capital, operational and maintenance costs into the economic assessment in order to determine the net resource value. Analysis Tool Set To determine efficiency gains associated with upgrading the distribution feeders, an analysis framework was developed by combining complementary technologies existing at Avista. For example, the SynerGEE Electric tool and its corresponding analysis engine Solver was leveraged to perform power flow analysis. Avista’s Facility Management (AFM) system and Major Equipment Tracking (MET) system were queried to obtain the number, age and sizes of transformers on the distribution feeders. In addition, Avista’s Substation Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system provided annual peak load and VAr consumption at the substation buses. Finally, the economic analysis of the annual Operation and Maintenance (O&M) forecast was approximated by Asset Managements Isograph Availability Workbench. Engineering Analysis Methodology The engineering analysis evaluated losses across the distribution system for the following program areas: 1) Conductor losses, 2) Distribution Transformers, 3) Secondary Districts and 4) VAr compensation. The energy losses, capital investment and reduction in O&M costs resulting from the individual efficiencies programs were combined on a per feeder basis. This analysis approach provided a means to rank and compare energy savings, along with return on investment, for each feeder. The individual programs methodology and assumptions are summarized in the descriptions below. 3 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Reconductoring The Distribution Engineering Group builds and maintains the SynerGEE distribution databases. The SynerGEE databases require material size, type and network topology for Avista’s distribution feeders as provided by the Avista Facilities Management (AFM) system. These databases provide a network model from which a power flow analysis can be performed to evaluate thermal and voltage performance of each feeder. The power flow analysis accuracy is dependent upon these SynerGEE databases being both current and accurate. The internal work processes used to maintain the SynerGEE models are summarized below. • Avista’s AFM system is maintained by applications which support the design of new facilities, outages, operations and maintenance activities on the distribution system. • An internally developed AFM application called Model Builder is used to upload the AFM data into a SynerGEE Model database • Distribution Engineering reviews the SynerGEE Models and performs system calibration of the models. • At the distribution feeder bus, a peak current meter read is recorded and inputted by Distribution Planning. In order to perform a power flow analysis for all three hundred plus feeders, in this system efficiency analysis, the process was automated by utilizing Advantica’s Solver engine. By using Solver, a scripting tool was developed to run multiple power flow iterations utilizing the SynerGEE models. The first iteration evaluated the energy loss with existing conductor and flagged conductor which did not adhere to Distribution Engineering’s new economic conductor standard summarized in Table 1. The second iteration updated the flagged conductor with the new conductor standard and evaluated the energy loss. Table 1 Economic Conductor Standard Ampacity Range Selected Conductor 0 to 25 Amps 2ACSR 26 to 100 Amps 4/0AAC 101 to 250 Amps 556AAC 251 to 700 Amps 795AAC The incremental energy savings resulting from reconductoring the feeder was determined by evaluating the peak loss of KW for the existing conductor versus the new conductor standards. Once the peak incremental loss was determined between the two runs, an average energy loss was calculated. The average energy loss was determined by multiplying the peak loss by a loss factor. The loss factor was determined by squaring the load factor. The assumptions used in the analysis are summarized in the list below. • The load factor for the distribution feeders were approximated by evaluating the load factor at several of the substation buses with hourly SCADA data • The load factor used for the distribution analysis was 50 percent • The loss factor used for the distribution analysis was 25 percent 4 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Overhead Transformers Between 1986 and 1987, Distribution Engineering conducted a set of no-load tests on approximately two hundred overhead transformers of various sizes, types and vintages. From the tests, a set of curves were developed to approximate the no-load losses for a transformer rating and age class (see Appendix). As a result, the no-load curves showed the loss for a particular transformer could be categorized into the following three vintages of transformers: 1) Pre-1960, 2) 1960 – 1983, 3) Post 1983. In 2008, Distribution Engineering implemented a new design standard for overhead transformers which is based on a life-cycle cost analysis and recently established an avoided cost of energy value of $66/MW. Consequently, the new transformer design standards specify transformers with no-load losses less then recently enacted Department of Energy (DOE) transformer efficiency standards. Upgrading the older overhead transformers accounted for a significant incremental energy savings in no-load losses. A software script was developed within the AFM system to retrieve the number, size and vintage of transformers located on distribution feeders. The analysis assumed the overhead transformers would be replaced in-kind with the new lower no load loss overhead transformers. The difference between the no- load loss of the old and new transformer accounts for the incremental energy savings. The overhead transformer no-load loss occurs every hour of the year and is independent of the actual load. Therefore, the incremental energy savings are an average value. The transformer population for particular vintage classes is summarized in Table 2, for overhead transformers only. Table 2 Overhead Transformer Vintages Vintage Population Number Pre1963 10,416 1963 - 1983 32,788 Post 1983 43,204 Secondary Districts Up to the late 1960’s, Avista designed and constructed large secondary districts in residential neighborhoods. A secondary district is designed with a distribution transformer and a three wire secondary lines which provided service tie positions for up to thirty customers. At the time of construction, these districts were economically viable since they increased the customer to transformer ratio. Due to the increased cost of energy and associated operational O&M costs, the elimination or redesign of the secondary districts were evaluated for efficiency gains. To determine the number of secondary districts on a feeder, an AFM script was written to identify the number of customers connected to a distribution transformer. To support the analysis, a secondary district was defined as an overhead transformer with twelve or more service premises. Using this classification, the ten feeders with the most secondary districts returned from the AFM query is summarized in Table 3. 5 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Table 3 Feeder Secondary Districts Feeder Name Number of Secondary Districts Ross Park 12F1 56 Ross Park 12F6 55 Ross Park 12F5 53 Sunset 12F3 52 Lyons & Standard 12F2 49 Francis & Cedar 12F1 47 Fort Wright 12F1 43 Beacon 12F5 40 Collage & Walnut 12F5 39 Third & Hatch 12F2 37 In order to evaluate the reduction in energy losses, a SynerGEE power flow analysis was performed on some typical secondary districts. To improve the efficiency of the secondary districts, two options were considered: 1) Reduce the district length by the addition of a transformer, 2) Reconductoring the district with insulated triplex conductor. The power flow analysis concluded districts with more then twenty two service premises should be reduced in length by the addition of an overhead transformer, while districts with less then twenty two service premises should be replaced using overhead triplex wire. The secondary district analysis only reviewed the reduction of energy loss and did not consider other design considerations such as flicker and reliability. Although an operational case could be made to eliminate districts by the addition of transformers for every four services, the energy loss in the transformers exceed the energy savings in the elimination of the district. The average KW loss associated with the district types is summarized in Table 4 below. Table 4 Secondary District Type Secondary District Type Average KW Loss 10-12 .234 12-22 .356 22 and up 1.03 VAr Compensation Another efficiency program evaluated the reduction of current on the line by offsetting the reactive load with the installation of switched capacitors. A VAr controller operates the switched capacitor to respond to adverse reactive loading on a feeder. The amount of energy savings associated with the installation of switched capacitors depends upon the feeder power factor. To a large extent, motor loading required for air conditioning drives the reactive loading on a feeder. Consequently, the number of hours a switched capacitor operates is seasonal. The analysis methodology developed for evaluating the energy savings associated for a feeder is described below. The Ninth and Central feeders were modeled to determine the size and type of switched capacitors as well as the annual hours of operation. A SCADA point located at Ninth and Central provided the amount of MVAr loading on a substation transformer on a per hour basis. A load duration curve developed from 6 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program this data determined the capacitor size and hours of operation. Once sized, SynerGEE’s capacitor placement application optimized both the peak power savings and the ideal placement of the capacitor. The energy savings obtained by installing the capacitor was determined by multiplying the number of hours of operation by the KW savings to MVAr ratio. This analysis methodology was simplified for the rest of the feeders by assuming the KW to MVAr ratio for all distribution feeders. The capacitor size for the rest of the feeders was assumed to be a single 900 KVAr bank. The hours of operation for the 900 KVAr were based on the load duration curve. Economic Analysis The economic analysis for the feeder upgrade programs estimated the capital investment, calculated the energy savings and forecasted operational and maintenance expense and interim capital investments. The capital investment required to implement the efficiencies programs were obtained from engineering estimates described below. The energy savings for a feeder upgrade was determined by the efficiency programs described previously. Finally, Asset Management modeled the feeders using their tools and forecasted the reduction in operational and maintenance expense resulting from the feeder upgrade, also described below. Engineering Estimate Reconductoring The material and labor estimate were performed by Distribution Engineering in conjunction with Planning and are based on 2008 material and labor costs. The reconductoring estimate was based on whether the conductor was being replaced or whether new construction was necessary to install the conductor. The assumptions made in the unit pricing for each case are summarized in the list below. New Construction • New Pole • New Anchors • New Cross Arms Replacement • 40 % replacement of the poles, cross arms and anchors The conductor replacement unit price is summarized in the Table 5 below. Table 5 Conductor Unit Price CONDUCTOR_TYPE Replacement $/Per Mile New Construction $/Per Mile 795AAC $60,000 $85,000 556AAC $45,000 $71,000 4/0AAC $35,000 $52,000 2ACSR $30,000 $42,000 Distribution Transformers The engineering estimates for distribution transformers were obtained from Purchasing and are based on 2008 material and labor costs. The overhead transformers met the new design requirements for no-load losses. The estimated unit prices for various sized overhead transformers are summarized in Table 6. 7 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Table 6 Overhead Transformers Overhead Transformers Installed Cost 15 KVA $1,014 25 KVA $1,301 37.5 KVA $1,952 75 KVA $2,519 100 KVA $3,278 150 KVA $3,430 225 KVA $3,936 300 KVA $4,310 Secondary Districts The engineering estimates to redesign secondary districts were determined for three distinct archetypes. The secondary district archetypes were based on the number of customers attached to overhead transformers. The labor and material costs to redesign the secondary districts for the distinct archetypes are listed in Table 7. Table 7 Secondary Districts Secondary District Archetypes Cost 10-12 Customer Service Points $5,728 - $8,687 13-22 Customer Service Points $6,181 - $8,820 >22 Customer Service Points $7,539 - $10,498 VAr Compensation The labor and material estimate for switched capacitors were based on recently purchased and installed capacitors. The cost for the purchased and installed capacitors for a 900 KVAr bank was $11,000. Asset Management The Asset Management team developed the Availability Workbench Model for six distribution feeders. The Availability Workbench Model combines input from the following areas: 1) system performance, 2) facility data, 3) manager and crafts 4) industry data, and 5) key performance indicators. From these inputs, the workbench application generates a forecasted annualized O&M and Capital cost model. The cost model is generated by comparing O&M expense resulting after a feeder upgrade versus the O&M expense for a base case. Asset Managements base case assumes the equipment will be replaced upon failure. The Asset Management analysis results indicated that upgrading the feeders reduces forecasted O&M expense when compared to the base case. The feeder upgrade program replaces aged equipment with new equipment to improve system efficiencies and reliability. The replacement of equipment reduces future O&M expenditures which is an economic benefit to the project and is included in the analysis. The reduction and avoidance of future increases in O&M expenditures are illustrated in Figure 1. The base case curve shows an exponential growth in O&M costs resulting from failure of the aging equipment failing. The feeder upgrade curve shows an initial increase in revenue requirement corresponding to the cost of the upgrade but shows how the revenue requirement rises slower due to the replacement of the aging facility. 8 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Figure 1 O&M Cost Programs 0 10 20 30 40 50 20 0 9 20 1 2 20 1 5 20 1 8 20 2 1 20 2 4 20 2 7 20 3 0 20 3 3 20 3 6 20 3 9 20 4 2 20 4 5 20 4 8 Mi l l i o n s Year Co s t P r o j e c t i o n s Base Case Feeder Upgrade The Asset Management program conducted an O&M analysis for the following six feeders: 1) 9CE12F4, 2) SUN12F3, 3) SUN12F1, 4) SUN12F2, 5) COL12F2, 6) KET12F2. The Asset Management team estimated the time to develop a Workbench model to determine the O&M expenditure was approximately thirty hours per feeder. To reduce the time to perform the analysis, the O&M expenditure curve determined for the six feeders was used to interpolate the expenditure for the other feeders. The linear interpolation was based on a strong correlation between the O&M expense and the length of the feeders analyzed. In order to limit the interpolation, the O&M expense was generated only for feeders with lengths between 12.5 miles (SUN12F3) and149 miles (KET12F2). Consequently, feeders with lengths outside this range were not included in the net resource cost analysis. Although the feeders were not included in the analysis the may still be economically viable. One example is the ORI12F3 feeder which ranks first in energy savings as shown Table 12. However, the feeder was not included in the net resource cost analysis since its length of 170 miles exceeded the maximum mileage criteria used for the analysis. Energy Results The efficiency analysis of the distribution feeders evaluated the existing energy losses and energy savings resulting from implementing the program upgrades. The study identified the existing distribution system losses to be approximately 3.6%. Assuming, all of the distribution feeders studied were economically viable to upgrade, the resulting system energy losses would be reduced by 2%. The total energy savings corresponding to the implementation of the upgrades would correspond to an energy savings of approximately 29.2 MW on peak and 13.5 MW on average. The energy savings break down across each program is described below. 9 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Reconductoring The reconductoring program as mentioned previously used the SynerGEE application to determine the conductor losses across our feeders. The distribution conductor operating at twenty percent or greater of its rated ampacity was upgraded to the new distribution standard, if warranted. The analysis was run again to determine the incremental reduction in conductor losses corresponding to the conductor upgrade. The results of the analysis are summarized in Table 8. Table 8 Reconductoring Power Savings Number of Feeders Peak Loss KW Average Loss KW Peak Loss Savings KW Average Loss Savings KW 302 35,676 8,919 14,973 3,743 Overhead Transformers The efficiency analysis evaluated the no-load losses across the existing transformer population to determine the average no-load transformer loss on Avista’s distribution feeders. The incremental energy savings was determined by taking the difference between the no-load losses of the new transformer standard versus the older vintage transformers. The results of the analysis are summarized in Table 9. Table 9 Overhead Transformer Power Savings Vintage Total number of Transformers Average Loss KW Average Loss Savings KW Pre1963 10,416 4700 1,907 1963 To 1983 32,788 9470 5,710 Secondary Districts The energy losses corresponding to the secondary districts were categorized by the number of service premises connected to the district. The incremental energy savings from the redesign of these districts was determined by taking the difference between the existing losses and the new designed district losses. The results of the analysis are summarized in Table 10. Table 10 Secondary Districts Power Savings Archetypes Number of Districts Peak Loss KW Avg. Power Loss KW Peak Loss Savings KW Avg. Power Savings KW 10 - 12 Customer Service Points 3,414 5,516 1,379 3,196 799 13 - 22 Customer Service Points 1,302 3,156 789 1,856 464 > 22 Customer Service Points 32 196 49 132 33 TOTAL 4,748 8,868 2,217 5,184 1,296 10 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program VAr Compensation A VAr duration curve across Avista’s load was developed from the electric transmission SCADA data. This load duration curve helped to book mark the amount of reactive load on Avista’s system. The analysis assumed approximately 100 MVAr of reactive load could be offset in the distribution system. It was also assumed that standard switched bank installation of 900 KVAr would be deployed for a single feeder. Therefore, approximately 112 feeders would have switched capacitors installed. Finally, as mentioned previously the ratio between kilowatts savings for megavar compensation was determined by evaluating several distribution feeders. The results of the savings are shown in Table 11. Table 11 VAr Compensation Power Savings Number of Feeders Bank Size KW Savings Average Hours Operation Peak Power Savings KW Avg Power Savings KW 112 900 KVAr 13 5100 1456 847 In addition to reviewing the individual programs for energy savings, the programs were combined on a per feeder basis. This allowed the feeders to be ranked on the total amount of energy savings available on a per feeder basis. Table 12 provides the number of feeders which would provided power savings over one hundred kilowatts. The list of feeders and corresponding power savings is listed in Table 12. Table 12 Top Feeder Power Savings Feeder Name Total Cost Total Average kW ORI12F3 $1,170,357 201 CHW12F3 $1,682,503 184 SPI12F1 $1,243,066 172 WIL12F2 $1,705,623 155 KET12F2 $968,669 143 STM631 $1,211,798 139 CLV34F1 $1,765,413 127 F&C12F1 $1,499,055 123 ROX751 $1,069,310 120 BEA12F2 $1,423,808 116 SUN12F3 $1,224,379 113 GIF34F2 $1,253,973 112 BEA12F1 $1,221,446 111 COB12F2 $822,727 109 RAT231 $1,111,882 108 ORO1281 $669,953 107 CLV12F4 $907,259 105 ROS12F1 $1,428,530 104 ROS12F6 $1,316,652 102 L&S12F2 $1,101,072 101 BEA12F5 $1,210,094 101 11 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Economic Ranking Although it may not be prudent to upgrade all of the distribution feeders, this study ranks the feeders by diminishing economic return. The economic metric used to rank feeders was net resource cost. The net resource cost for each feeder was determined for O&M offsets forecasted on a five, ten and fifteen year time horizon. This variable O&M forecast provided a means to filter on or off the number of economically viable feeder upgrades. Other criteria used to reduce the number of viable feeder upgrade projects included capital investment greater then $0.5 million and net resource cost less then $100 per MW. The ranking of the most viable economic feeder upgrades are illustrated in the following three tables. Table 13, Table 14 and Table 15 is based on a five, ten and fifteen year O&M time horizon respectively. Table 13 Net Resource Cost - Five Year O&M Feeder Net Resource Cost $/Mwh Capital Investment KW KET12F2 $55.00 $968,669.0 142.99 SPI12F1 $67.73 $1,243,065.8 171.98 ORO1281 $68.58 $669,953.1 106.53 COL12F2 $74.92 $822,726.8 108.96 COB12F2 $74.92 $822,726.8 108.96 LF34F1 $76.29 $595,875.0 72.71 COB12F1 $82.87 $671,737.4 77.55 PVW241 $89.40 $528,985.4 53.68 CLV12F4 $89.83 $907,259.4 105.03 L&R512 $94.53 $546,237.7 55.02 OLD721 $94.87 $608,545.7 67.75 ARD12F2 $95.35 $817,711.5 82.33 STM631 $97.26 $1,211,797.7 139.36 ROX751 $99.44 $1,069,309.6 120.48 Table 14 Net Resource Cost – Ten Year O&M Feeder Net Resource Cost $/Mwh Capital Investment KW KET12F2 $31.00 $968,669.0 142.99 SPI12F1 $49.19 $1,243,065.8 171.98 LF34F1 $51.54 $595,875.0 72.71 PVW241 $56.55 $528,985.4 53.68 ORO1281 $56.75 $669,953.1 106.53 COL12F2 $57.56 $822,726.8 108.96 COB12F2 $57.56 $822,726.8 108.96 COB12F1 $59.29 $671,737.4 77.55 CHW12F2 $60.29 $600,325.8 41.95 L&R512 $63.81 $546,237.7 55.02 ARD12F2 $70.17 $817,711.5 82.33 12 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Feeder Net Resource Cost $/Mwh Capital Investment KW CLV12F4 $72.60 $907,259.4 105.03 GIF34F2 $72.61 $1,253,972.5 112.27 OLD721 $73.12 $608,545.7 67.75 MIS431 $79.16 $780,915.9 57.44 F&C12F2 $80.57 $610,746.1 65.07 RDN12F1 $81.47 $519,904.7 34.81 ORI12F1 $81.53 $832,306.2 75.82 FOR12F1 $81.55 $560,782.7 39.13 CKF711 $83.62 $912,659.4 88.03 STM631 $85.11 $1,211,797.7 139.36 PF213 $85.38 $579,843.8 55.23 PRA222 $85.48 $543,659.3 51.64 NE12F2 $85.54 $508,476.3 45.31 ROX751 $86.10 $1,069,309.6 120.48 RAT231 $86.36 $1,111,881.6 108.16 PUL112 $86.42 $528,311.9 44.24 SE12F2 $86.66 $714,903.4 69.83 TEN1256 $87.12 $789,201.9 85.49 GLN12F2 $88.33 $584,770.4 51.32 LIB12F3 $88.64 $529,971.6 46.50 CLV12F2 $88.87 $904,207.9 90.25 PUL116 $89.22 $537,639.7 45.27 CRG1261 $89.84 $561,702.8 44.85 APW112 $91.22 $522,196.7 45.53 WAK12F1 $93.01 $560,901.0 48.81 DEE12F2 $93.14 $743,960.8 69.63 GRV1274 $94.16 $671,626.1 66.96 PDL1202 $94.22 $581,246.6 55.32 SUN12F5 $95.38 $642,722.3 52.58 LIB12F2 $95.47 $726,778.1 58.98 DAL131 $97.14 $870,985.5 84.97 SAG741 $97.29 $634,916.4 44.82 BKR12F1 $98.20 $683,595.8 64.18 DEE12F1 $98.39 $996,523.0 67.68 M15515 $99.16 $540,077.6 44.53 SE12F4 $99.42 $686,532.3 59.34 M15512 $99.50 $531,004.8 43.84 Table 15 Net Resource Cost - Fifteen Year O&M Feeder Net Resource Cost $/Mwh Capital Investment KW CHW12F2 $2.9 $600,325.8 41.95 KET12F2 $4.6 $968,669.0 142.99 PVW241 $23.3 $528,985.4 53.68 13 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Feeder Net Resource Cost $/Mwh Capital Investment KW LF34F1 $26.4 $595,875.0 72.71 SPI12F1 $28.9 $1,243,065.8 171.98 RDN12F1 $29.4 $519,904.7 34.81 L&R512 $32.8 $546,237.7 55.02 FOR12F1 $34.0 $560,782.7 39.13 MIS431 $35.1 $780,915.9 57.44 COB12F1 $35.3 $671,737.4 77.55 GIF34F2 $39.5 $1,253,972.5 112.27 COL12F2 $39.9 $822,726.8 108.96 COB12F2 $39.9 $822,726.8 108.96 ARD12F2 $44.1 $817,711.5 82.33 ORO1281 $44.8 $669,953.1 106.53 AIR12F1 $48.7 $615,395.6 49.12 OLD721 $51.3 $608,545.7 67.75 PUL112 $51.6 $528,311.9 44.24 CRG1261 $54.0 $561,702.8 44.85 ORI12F1 $54.7 $832,306.2 75.82 CLV12F4 $55.1 $907,259.4 105.03 NE12F2 $55.5 $508,476.3 45.31 PUL116 $56.2 $537,639.7 45.27 DEE12F1 $56.5 $996,523.0 67.68 SAG741 $57.4 $634,916.4 44.82 GLN12F2 $58.3 $584,770.4 51.32 LIB12F3 $59.0 $529,971.6 46.50 PF213 $60.1 $579,843.8 55.23 PRA222 $60.3 $543,659.3 51.64 F&C12F2 $60.5 $610,746.1 65.07 CKF711 $61.5 $912,659.4 88.03 ODN731 $61.9 $627,946.4 44.01 APW112 $62.8 $522,196.7 45.53 SE12F2 $64.1 $714,903.4 69.83 SUN12F5 $64.6 $642,722.3 52.58 WAK12F1 $65.2 $560,901.0 48.81 LIB12F2 $65.8 $726,778.1 58.98 RAT231 $65.9 $1,111,881.6 108.16 CLV12F2 $70.0 $904,207.9 90.25 M15515 $70.7 $540,077.6 44.53 DEE12F2 $70.8 $743,960.8 69.63 M15512 $71.5 $531,004.8 43.84 TEN1256 $71.6 $789,201.9 85.49 ROX751 $72.7 $1,069,309.6 120.48 STM631 $72.8 $1,211,797.7 139.36 SE12F4 $74.2 $686,532.3 59.34 PDL1202 $74.6 $581,246.6 55.32 SPT4S30 $75.7 $541,420.5 44.99 14 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Feeder Net Resource Cost $/Mwh Capital Investment KW CHE12F4 $76.2 $667,293.8 57.48 OGA611 $76.5 $780,992.8 58.08 GRV1274 $77.5 $671,626.1 66.96 SOT522 $77.7 $632,142.6 51.02 CFD1210 $78.0 $563,163.3 45.20 SOT521 $78.4 $538,938.7 46.10 BKR12F1 $79.3 $683,595.8 64.18 NE12F1 $79.6 $687,832.8 62.33 DAL131 $79.8 $870,985.5 84.97 PDL1203 $81.8 $559,682.9 45.75 CFD1211 $82.4 $734,775.9 65.51 MIL12F3 $82.8 $619,499.7 55.10 CDA123 $83.5 $672,854.8 56.29 9CE12F1 $83.5 $616,123.8 54.88 MEA12F2 $83.7 $750,315.2 63.99 SIP12F4 $84.3 $634,440.7 53.05 CHE12F1 $84.3 $629,576.6 54.28 SOT523 $84.9 $1,023,389.6 89.92 NW12F1 $85.1 $788,923.6 73.66 WIL12F2 $86.5 $1,705,622.8 155.22 TEN1254 $86.6 $582,980.2 48.35 ECL222 $86.7 $686,592.4 60.28 CDA124 $86.8 $641,838.7 55.52 M15513 $87.1 $736,558.1 67.36 F&C12F6 $88.2 $658,978.5 57.70 TEN1255 $89.2 $607,926.6 50.49 SLK12F1 $89.4 $854,712.8 72.56 MIL12F4 $89.6 $831,468.1 75.37 LOL1359 $90.7 $830,015.9 73.31 CHE12F2 $90.8 $642,694.9 54.26 SPU123 $91.2 $724,338.0 60.68 9CE12F2 $92.9 $764,865.0 66.97 CDA121 $92.9 $623,762.0 50.00 TEN1257 $93.0 $740,138.0 65.15 WAK12F2 $93.6 $765,628.4 67.80 9CE12F4 $93.7 $774,787.7 68.61 SLW1358 $93.7 $717,636.7 62.17 CDA125 $94.4 $863,793.5 70.73 EFM12F1 $95.0 $950,734.3 79.18 NW12F3 $96.7 $746,886.7 62.10 M23621 $97.1 $641,972.3 43.52 MIL12F1 $100.3 $798,146.0 68.01 SUN12F6 $101.5 $789,282.4 66.28 15 Avista Distribution System Efficiencies Program Conclusion The intent of this system efficiency analysis was to develop and implement a methodology to identify and quantify remedies to reducing losses across Avista’s distribution system. The results of this analysis can then be folded into a broader infrastructure strategy. A program to systematically refresh feeders can be combined with existing internal programs like asset management and capital budgeting to identify synergistic work alignments. For example, a project schedule could be developed to upgrade feeders based on energy, operational, reliability and maintenance priorities. Today, capital work is typically driven by system capacity constraints. With the results obtained in this analysis, capital projects could be aligned with corporate economic goals of reducing energy loss and offsetting O&M expenditures. The benefits identified in the feeder upgrade program assumed the upgrades would be deployed in a comprehensive manner. The temptation to implement individual efficiency program components across the system may compromise the performance of a feeder as an energy delivery system. The efficient and reliable delivery of electrical energy across the Avista feeders is best met by incorporating all of the electrical components in the upgrade. This systemic approach may help guide how programs should be implemented across the organization. Today, Avista implements projects in fairly discrete work silos influenced by departmental task structure and budget constraints. Examples of these type of programs are joint use, pole test and treat, failed equipment, new revenue and specific capital project budgeting. Consequently, the programs are dispersed across multiple feeders resulting in different crews working on the same feeder at different times over multiple years. The feeder upgrade program could be used not only to achieve energy savings but also be used as a springboard to consolidate and coordinate work efforts. Rather than referring to work groups by departmental names like Distribution Engineering, Operations or Asset Management, they may be better served by being aligned with actual work processes like capital and operational feeder programs. The feeder upgrade program by itself falls short of being a strategic vision. However, it can be used as a first step towards a broader strategic view to be included in programs like capital budgeting, energy efficiency, and O&M cost reduction. A more robust corporate strategic vision for aging infrastructure rehabilitation would need to incorporate the following elements: 1) Movement of bulk power across our transmission system, 2) Optimum distribution topologies, 3) Substation size, locations and architectures, and 4) Reliable forecasts of geographical centered load growth. Once these elements are incorporated into the existing feeder upgrade program, a long term plan for Avista’s electric infrastructure can be developed to move infrastructure upgrades from a tactical or reactive approach to a planned replacement strategy. 16 2009 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Appendix H – 2009 Electric IRP Avista New Resource Table August 31, 2009 Resource POR Capacity Year Resource Location or Local Area POD Start Stop MW Total Lancaster CCCT Rathdrum, ID Bell/Westside AVA System 1/1/2010 10/31/2026 125.0 Lancaster CCCT Rathdrum, ID Mid-C AVA System 1/1/2010 10/31/2026 150.0 275.0 Noxon 3 (incremental)Noxon, MT Noxon, MT AVA System 1/1/2010 Indefinite 14.0 14.0 Noxon 2 (incremental)Noxon, MT Noxon, MT AVA System 1/1/2011 Indefinite 14.0 14.0 Noxon 4 (incremental)Noxon, MT Noxon, MT AVA System 1/1/2012 Indefinite 14.0 Nine Mile (incremental)Nine Mile, WA Nine Mile, WA AVA System 1/1/2012 Indefinite 8.8 Wind Reardan, WA Reardan, WA AVA System 1/1/2012 Indefinite 90.0 Wind TBD TBD AVA System 1/1/2012 Indefinite 60.0 172.8 Little Falls (incremental)Ford, WA Little Falls, WA AVA System 1/1/2013 Indefinite 1.0 1.0 Little Falls (incremental)Ford, WA Little Falls, WA AVA System 1/1/2014 Indefinite 1.0 1.0 Little Falls (incremental)Ford, WA Little Falls, WA AVA System 1/1/2016 Indefinite 1.0 1.0 Wind TBD TBD AVA System 1/1/2019 Indefinite 150.0 CCCT TBD Bell/Westside AVA System 1/1/2019 Indefinite 250.0 400.0 Upper Falls (incremental)Spokane, WA Spokane, WA AVA System 1/1/2020 Indefinite 2.0 2.0 Wind TBD TBD AVA System 1/1/2022 Indefinite 50.0 50.0 CCCT TBD TBD AVA System 1/1/2024 Indefinite 250.0 250.0 CCCT TBD TBD AVA System 1/1/2027 Indefinite 250.0 250.0 Total 1431 1431 August 26, 2009 2009 Avista IRP New Resource Table Page 1 of 1