20050119Application Part II.pdf

EXHIBIT D
Location of Coyote Springs Plant Relative to
A vista Utilities Service Area
Application of A vista Corporation
Case No. AVU-O5-
SEE CASE FILE
FOR MAP(S)
EXHIBIT E
Excerpts from 2000 Updated
Integrated Resource Plan
Application of A vista Corporation
Case No. AVU-O5-
July 12, 2000
A VISTA CORPORATION
1997 Integrated Resource Plan Update
I. Introduction:
Avista s last Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) was filed with the Commission on August 25, 1997.
That plan showed that the company was surplus for many years into the future. Since then many
things have changed in the electric utility industry and for A vista. Therefore, the company has
prepared this updated IRP to include those significant changes. As discussed later, this updated
IRP will also serve as the basis for a Request- for-Proposal (RFP) that A vista plans to issue.
The following information has been presented at various T AC meetings and will become a
integral part of the next IRP.
II. 1997 IRP Update
1. Load Forecast
The 2000 electric sales forecast was prepared during the summer of 1999. The forecast of firm
sales to the core-market is one of the most critical elements and was presented and discussed at
the T AC meeting. A vista Utilities utilizes econometric models to produce sales and customer
forecasts. Econometric models are systems of algebraic equations which relate past economic
growth and development in the geographic communities served electricity with past customergrowth and consumption.
The electrical energy forecast shows an annual average load of 1013 aMW in 2001 increasing to
1159 aMW in 2009. The peak forecast shows 1594 MW in 2001 with 1851 MW in the year
2009. The ten-year compound growth rate for residential usage is 2.3 percent, commercial is 3.
percent and industrial is 1.6 percent. The overall total energy forecast has a compound growth
rate of 1.9 percent.
The annual load forecast numbers, for both peak and energy, through the year 2009 can be found
on the Requirements and Resources tabulation sheet.
2. Resource Assessment
Centralia
The sale of the Centralia coal-fired plant resulted in the loss of 201 MW of capacity and 177
of annual energy from A vista s resource portfolio. The company entered into a short-term
contract with TransAlta, the new owners of Centralia, to replace a majority of the generation lost
with the sale of the plant. The term of this contract starts in July 2000 and extends through
December 2003.
A vista Corp - 1997 IRP UDdate
Exhibit E
Page 1 of 5
costs and discharge less pollutants into the air than other fossil fuel plants. As shown in
Appendix B, the Northwest Power Planning Council costs for natural gas fired generation
projects range from approximately 41 mills to 43 mills.
At this point in time the following resources would not pass the initial screening. The following
costs are nominal life-cycle, levelized costs.
Nuclear: Costs are over the 100 mills per kilowatt-hour range. The total cost and the
lack of public acceptance make this resource option unacceptable.
Coal: Costs are 80 to 90 mills. The total cost and cost uncertainty in air quality issues
make this resource option unacceptable.
Wind: Costs are 60 to 80 mills. There are indications that costs are declining but our
studies show there are not favorable sites in our service territory so transmission costs
would have to be added. Because wind is intermittent the resource would have to be
discounted for lack of capacity component. This would make this resource option
unacceptable.
Geothermal: Costs are 80 to 100 mills making this resource option unacceptable.
Solar: Costs are over 240 mills making this resource option unacceptable.
These costs are presented for general comparison purposes. The company will solicit resource
bids from the market in an upcoming Request-for-Proposals (RFP). The company is hoping for
innovative bids from project developers. The RFP bids will be evaluated against the information
that has been gathered both internally and externally.
8. Load and Resource Summary
General
Included is Avista s annual Requirements and Resources (Load and Resource Summary) that
shows the company s load and resource position on an annual basis for the next ten years (see
Appendix D). It is dated June 1,2000 and will be the same one used in the 2000 JRP. The peak
column is the January peak (the highest forecasted peak for the year) and the average column is
the annual 12-month average for the year. The resource peak numbers are what could be
expected as maximum capacity outputs during January. The hydro peak and energy numbers are
from the final regulation done by the Northwest Power Pool and reflect the reservoir levels in
January per the hydro regulation study (one-year critical period, 1936-37 water). The average
energy numbers are the expected 12-month averages for the loads, resources and contracts.
All the requirements are shown at the top of the page. Most of the purchases and sales contracts
end by the year 2004. The peak and average forecasted loads are shown on line 1 labeled
System Load. Line 17 Reserves are A vista s planning reserves and are part of the total
Requirements (as described in Section 3).
The Resource section is comprised of the resources and purchase contracts. Line 19 shows the
system hydro and line 20 is the contract hydro from the mid-Columbia PUD projects (with
critical water conditions). The mid-Columbia numbers decrease due to the Priest Rapids contract
ending in 2005 and the Wanapum contract ending in 2009. A vista is hopeful that a contract
extension can be negotiated with Grant County PUD. Lines 24 and 25 are the company s existing
A vista Corp - 1997 IRP Update
Exhibit E
Page 2 of5
simple-cycle combustion turbines, and lines 33 and 34 are the expected thermal generation
output from Kettle Falls and Colstrip.
Line 29 shows the BP A residential exchange contract and the 47 MW flat delivery of power to
the company from BP A. There is no dispatchability or flexibility with this contract. Although
this contract has not been signed, A vista feels it is firm enough to be included.
Line 44 is the Surplus (Deficit) numbers calculated by subtracting the Total Requirementsfrom
the Total Resource numbers. In the year 2004 A vista is 287 MW deficit on peak and 318 aMW
deficit on energy under critical water planning criteria.
Resource Flexibility
Flexible generation resources are a key component to meet the requirements of Avista
customers. As depicted in the charts on pages 8 and 9 in Appendix E, A vista experiences load
changes of 100 MW or more during several hours of each day. Loads must be ramped up and
down under a variety of seasonal and load conditions. In order to meet the load, flexible
resources (Cabinet Gorge, Noxon Rapids, Long Lake, Mid Columbia contract hydro, and the
Rathdrum Combustion turbines) are dispatched. Even with these resources, Avista still must
purchase peak energy products to meet customer demand during different times. The market
today tends to offer standard heavy load hour and light load hour products that do not meet load
shaping or following needs.
2004 Study
A detailed tabulation of the load and resource requirements study of the year 2004 is also
attached (see Appendix E). We chose the year 2004 for an in-depth study because, as mentioned
above, many of the larger supply and requirements contracts have ended and future requirements
change (for the most part) due to load growth.
This study is shown in two parts. The first study shows on and off peak loads and resource
requirements monthly under critical and normal hydro conditions. The second study goes into
even further detail. We created an hourly Surplus-Deficiency duration Curve for the year 2004
using PROSYM to gain the following information. By using the Northwest Power Pool's sixty
year hydro generation study for our system, PROSYM runs 720 (sixty years X 12 months/year)
hydro scenarios into the forecast net system load, all known contracts, and existing resources.
The information gained from this model output shows the company s resource requirements to
meet load under many different hydro conditions. This duration curve will be used to analyze
how new resource additions will "fit" into the company s requirements without any affect from
market conditions. As stated before, standard economic modeling must be performed after
dispatch information is gained from PROSYM modeling.
Load growth expectations based on the forecasted methodologies are explained under Section
A vista doesn t expect drastic changes in our load beyond the nonnalload growth that has been
experienced. But the future is uncertain and A vista needs to be flexible enough to handle
unforeseen changes. For example, the company could lose load by having Avista s larger retail
customers install cogeneration, like WSU or Potlatch deciding to serve their own load from
existing generating facilities. Or if partial deregulation was to come to our region, A vista could
pick up some industrial loads thereby increasing the load requirements.
A vista Corp - 1997 IR.P UDdate
Exhibit E
Page 3 of 5
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Exhibit E
Page 4 of 5
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EXHIBIT F
Letter of Intent
Application of A vista Corporation
Case No. AVU-O5-
Avilta Corp.
1411 fa.Mission PO Box3727
Spokane, WaahingtOn 99220-3727
Telephone D" IXSOO
ToDFree &727-9170 .J.'~'VISTA.
COrp.
June 24, 2004
Mirant Oregon, LLC
c/o Mirant California
1350 Treat Blvd., Suite 500
Walnut Creek, CA 94597
Attn: Anne M. Cleary, President
Dear Ms. Cleary:
Enclosed please find two signed originals of the Letter of Intent for the potential purchase
of Coyote Springs Unit 2 from Mirant Oregon, LLC. Please sign both originals and
return one to me.
If you have any questions, please can me at 509 495-8093 or Ron Peterson at 509 495-
8045.
Sincerely,
fr~
Steven G. Silkworth
Wholesale Power Manager
Enclosure
AVIST
Corp.
Confidential and Proprietary
June 25, 2004
Mirant Oregon, LLC
c/o Mirant California
1350 Treat Blvd., Suite 500
Walnut Creek, CA 94597
Attn: Anne M. Cleary, President
Ladies and Gentlemen:
This letter of intent Letter of Intent'
~,
effective on the date when executed by all the
Parties hereto (the Effective Date
~,
will evidence the current mutual intent, as set forth in
Article I below, of MIRANT OREGON, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company Mirant'
and A VISTA CORPORATION, a Washington corporation (tlAvista
~,
with respect to the
potential purchase (the Transaction by Avista of Mirant's 50% undivided ownership interest,
as tenant-in-common, in the Coyote Springs Unit 2 generation facility (the Facility"
consisting of an approximately 280 MW gas-fJIed, combined-cycle power plant, in Boardman,
Oregon, including Mirant's undivided ownership interest in certain components shared with the
adjacent Coyote Springs Unit 1 generation facility owned by Portland General Electric. Mirant
and A vista are sometimes referred to individually as a Party" herein and collectively as the
Parties.Mirant is wholly owned by Mirant Americas, Inc. ("MAl"). MAl and certain of its
affiliates have filed voluntary petitions for relief under chapter 11 of title 11 of the United States
Code (the "Bankruptcy Code ) in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District
of Texas (the "Bankruptcy Court") and continue to operate their respective businesses as debtors
and debtors in possession.
Attached to this Letter of Intent as Exhibit A is a proposal for the Transaction (the
Proposal') under which Mirant and A vista are prepared to complete the Transaction if they are
able to reach mutually satisfactory definitive agreements for consummation of the Transaction
and if they evidence their willingness to proceed with the Transaction by executing and
delivering those agreements.
The matters set forth in Article I and Exhibit A are not intended to and do not constitute a
binding agreement of the Parties to consummate the Transaction. Any such binding agreement
between the Parties will only arise upon the negotiation, execution and delivery of mutually
satisfactory definitive agreements and the satisfaction of the conditions set forth therein,
including without limitation, the satisfactory completion by the Parties of their respective due
diligence inquiries and the approval of such agreements by the Parties' respective board of
directors or other required internal approval, all required regulatory approvals and satisfaction of
certain requirements of the Bankruptcy Code, including approval of the Bankruptcy Court and
any requisite approvals pursuant to MAl's postpetition debtor in possession financing facility.
Mirant Oregon, LLC
June 2S, 2004
Page 2
The matters set forth in Article II do constitute binding agreements of the Parties.
Article I
Transaction Documents
Definitive Agreements. The Parties will exercise good-faith efforts to diligently
negotiate an Asset Purchase Agreement with respect to the Facility and such other
definitive agreements necessary to accomplish the Transaction (collectively, the
"Definitive Agreements
~.
The Parties anticipate that Definitive Agreements, if entered
into, will include provisions substantially similar to those set forth in the Proposal
together with such other provisions as the Parties may conclude are necessary or
appropriate for the consummation of the Transaction.
No Obligation to Enter. Neither Party is obligated by this Letter of Intent to enter into
any of the Definitive Agreements with the other Party with respect to the Transaction or
any other matter.
Article II
Binding Provisions
1. Confidentiality. The Parties agree that this Letter of Intent and the matters identified in it
are "Confidential Information" under the provisions of that certain Confidentiality Agreement
dated of even date herewith, between Mirant and A vista (the "Confidentiality Agreement'
~,
and
that the terms and conditions of the Confidentiality Agreement remain in full force and effect.
2. Term. Unless extended or earlier terminated by mutual written agreement of the Parties, this
Letter of Intent shall remain in effect during the period from the Effective Date until the earliest
to occur of (a) the execution of Definitive Agreements, (b) the date on which either party
provides the other with written notice that negotiations toward Definitive Agreements are
terminated, or (c) July 31, 2004, (the earliest to occur of such dates being referred to herein as
the Termination Date
3. Restricted Dealings. During the term of this Letter of Intent, Mirant agrees not to, and
agrees to cause its affiliates and representatives not to, solicit or entertain offers from, negotiate
with or in any manner encourage, discuss, accept or consider any proposal of any other person or
entity relating to the sale, acquisition or transfer of Mirant's interest in the Facility. During the
term of this Letter of Intent, A vista agrees not to, and agrees to cause its affiliates and
representatives not to, solicit or entertain offers from, negotiate with or in any manner encourage
discuss, accept or consider any proposal of any other person or entity relating to the sale or
transfer by A vista (or its affiliates or representatives) of all or part of a power generation asset in
Boardman, Oregon or within the surrounding 50 miles thereof. In the event that the parties
execute Definitive Agreements, it is understood that the Transaction contemplated thereby will
be subject to higher or otherwise better offers submitted in connection with a Bankruptcy Court
supervised auction and sale approval process; provided that such process shall be conducted in
accordance with the procedures set forth in such Definitive Agreements, as more specifically
contemplated on Exhibit A.
Mirant Oregon, LLC
June 25, 2004
Page 3
4. Capital and Operating Expenses. For the avoidance of doubt, the obligations of the Parties
to fund capital and operating expenses of the Facility shall be as provided in the Co-Tenancy and
Joint Operating Agreement, dated as of January 1, 2003 between the Parties (the Operating
Agreement"
).
Notwithstanding the foregoing, for the period from the date of this Letter of Intent
until the closing under Definitive Agreements (provided the Transaction is consummated): (i)
any capital expenditures made by Mirant shall be repaid to Mirant in full at such closing, and (ii)
any prepaid operating expenditures made by Mirant shall be repaid to Mirant as part of a
working capital adjustment under the Definitive Agreements.
5. Expenses. Each Party shall bear its own costs and expenses associated with negotiating and
performing under this Letter of Intent; provided however, that if the Parties execute Definitive
Agreements, A vista will be entitled to customary bidding protections and procedures as set forth
in Exhibit A. For the avoidance of doubt, the expenses of Coyote Springs 2, LLC, a Delaware
limited liability company (the Project Company associated with negotiating this Letter of
Intent and any Definitive Agreements and the execution of the Transaction (including without
limitation the fees and expenses of Heller Ehnnan White & McAuliffe LLP, counsel to the
Project Company, shall be borne by the Project Company which shall be funded 50% by Mirant
and 500/0 by A vista for this purpose.
6. Approyal. Neither Party shall be bound by any of the Definitive Agreements until (a) such
Party s respective board of directors, or other required internal approval process, shall have
approved such Definitive Agreements, (b) such Party shall have executed such Definitive
Agreements, and (c) all conditions precedent to the effectiveness of such Definitive Agreements
shall have been satisfied, including without limitation any conditions precedent relating to (i) the
obtaining of any and all requisite federal, state or local regulatory orders, consents or approvals
and (ii) payment by Mirant of its outstanding obligations pursuant to the Operating Agreement.
Without limiting in any manner the foregoing, the Parties acknowledge and agree that in no
event shall either Party be obligated to proceed with the Transaction, and that each may, prior to
the execution and delivery of such Definitive Agreements, decline to proceed with the
Transaction in its sole discretion.
7. Entire Agreement. The binding portions of this Letter of Intent, together with the Proposal
constitute the entire agreement of the Parties relating to the subject matter hereof and supersede
all prior discussions, agreements or understandings, whether oral or written, relating to such
subject matter. There are no other written or oral agreements or understandings among the
Parties with respect to the Transaction. Any waiver of any term or amendment of this Letter of
Intent must be written and signed by both Parties. The binding provisions of this Letter of Intent
may not be waived except in writing by the Party who has the right to enforce such provisions;
provided. however, that Paragraphs 6, 9 and 12 may not be waived under any circumstances. No
failure to exercise, no delay in exercising, and no course of dealing or trade custom with respect
to, any provision of this Letter of Intent shall be deemed to waive any such provision.
8. Governing Law. This letter of intent shall be governed by and construed in accordance with
the laws of the State of New York, without giving effect to conflict of laws principles.
Mirant Oregon, LLC
June 25, 2004
Page 4
9. Non-Inclusive; Non-Binding. Neither this Letter of Intent, the attached Proposal, nor any
other proposal, correspondence or course of dealing identifies all matters upon which agreement
must be reached in order for the Transaction to be completed or for any Definitive Agreements to
be finalized and executed. Except with respect to the obligations of the Parties expressly set
forth in Article IT, this Letter of Intent does not create and is not intended to create a binding and
enforceable contract between the Parties as to the Transaction or any obligation to enter into or
proceed with the Transaction, and may not be relied upon by a Party as the basis for a contract by
estoppel or otherwise with respect to any matter. A binding commitment with respect to the
Transaction can only result from the execution and delivery of Definitive Agreements.
10. Assignment. Neither Party may assign or otherwise transfer its interest in this Letter of
Intent without the prior written consent of the other Party.
11. Relationship of the Parties. The Parties shall not be deemed in a relationship of partners or
joint venturers by virtue of this Letter of Intent, nor shall either Party be an agent, representative
trustee or fiduciary of the other. Neither Party shall have any authority under this Letter of Intent
to bind the other to any agreement or obligation.
12. Limitation of Liability. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHALL EITHER PARTY
HERETO BE LIABLE FOR CONSEQUENTIAL, INCIDENTAL, PUNITNE, EXEMPLARY
OR INDIRECT DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS OR OTHER BUSINESS INTERRUPTION
DAMAGES, WHETHER BY STATUTE, IN TORT OR CONTRACT OR OTHERWISE, IN
CONNECTION WITH THE TRANSACTIONS CONTEMPLATED HEREBY.
13. Confidentiality; Press Releases. Each of the Parties agrees that, except as required by law
it will not disclose to any person other than its representatives the identity of the other Parties as
it relates to the negotiation of the Transaction. Neither Party shall issue a press release or make
any public statement with respect to the Transaction without the prior approval of the other
Party, which approval shall not be unreasonably withheld or delayed.
If the provisions of Article I and Exhibit A correctly set forth our current understanding
as to the non-binding nature of our discussions regarding Definitive Agreements, and the
provisions of Article IT set forth our binding agreements with respect to the matters set forth
therein, please execute both originals of this Letter of Intent in the space provided below, retain
one fully-executed original for your file, and return one of the other originals to the undersigned.
This Letter of Intent may be executed in counterparts, and all such counterparts together shall
constitute but one agreement.
Very truly yours,
VISTA CORPORATION
By: ~R.
Name: Ronald R. Peterson
Title: Vice President Energy Resources
Mirant Oregon, LLC
June 25, 2004
Page 5
Acknowledged, Agreed to and Accepted
thiS 12!: day of J:&Re, 2004:
~tJ.J- Y
MIRANT OREGON, LLC
By:
Name: Anne M. Cleary
Title: President
Exhibit A
Proposed Terms and Conditions
1. Purchase Price.The Purchase Price for Mirant's 50% undivided ownership
interest, as tenant-in-common, in the Facility will be in the
form of a cash payment by A vista to Mirant in an amount
equal to US$62,500,OOO.OO in immediately available funds
to be made at closing.
If Mirant agrees to sell, and Avista agrees to buy, Mirant'
50% ownership interest in the Project Company as part of
the Transaction, Mirant and A vista will agree upon a
mutually acceptable price.
2. No Financing
Contingency.
A vista has ample funds available to support its offer;
accordingly, A vista s offer is not subject to any financing
contingency.
4. Closing.
Upon completion of due diligence and execution of
Definitive Agreements, A vista shall deposit into escrow with
a third party custodian reasonably satisfactory to Mirant an
amount to be agreed that will be in immediately available
funds (the Deposit"
).
If the Transaction is consummated,
the Deposit shall be applied as a partial payment of the
Purchase Price. If the Transaction is not consummated for
any reason (other than due to a breach by A vista of the
Definitive Agreements that leads to termination of the
Definitive Agreements in accordance with their terms), the
Deposit shall be refunded to A vista.
Subject to, among other things, receipt of any required third-
party, governmental or other regulatory approvals and
satisfaction of Mirant' s outstanding funding obligations,
any, pursuant to the Operating Agreement, it is anticipated
that the transaction could be closed within 45-60 days of the
date that a motion is filed by MAl andlor its debtor affiliates
with the Bankruptcy Court seeking appropriate approval of
the Transaction. Closing shall occur within 5 Business Days
after all conditions precedent have been satisfied.
3. Deposit.
5. Approvals Avista shall be responsible for filing all necessary Hart-
Scott-Rodino ("HSR"), Federal Electric Regulatory
Commission ("FERC") and Oregon Energy Facility Siting
Council approvals. Mirant shall use commercially
6. Related Transmission
Agreements
7. Timing
Exhibit A
Proposed Terms and Conditions
reasonable efforts to assist A vista in obtaining all regulatory
approvals. MAl and Mirant shall use their commercially
reasonable efforts to obtain Bankruptcy Court approval of
orders, both in fonn and substance acceptable to Avista, (a)
approving bidding protections and procedures, as described
in paragraph 7 hereof, and (b) authorizing the consummation
of the Transaction, each within the time periods prescribed in
the Definitive Agreements.
It is understood that the power transmission agreements
listed on Annex I hereto are currently held by MAl or its
debtor affiliates for the benefit of Mirant's 50% interest in
the Facility. The parties agree that, to the extent possible and
economically practicable, MAl or its debtor affiliates will
transfer or assign such agreements or otherwise make
available such power transmission service as part of the
Transaction. The parties recognize that any assignment of
such agreements may require (i) the filing of a motion by
MAl and/or its debtor affiliates with the Bankruptcy Court
for approval of such assignment and (ii) FERC approval. The
parties further agree that to the extent possible and
economically practicable, MAl or its debtor affiliates will
transfer or assign any requests MAl or its debtor affiliates
have pending for long-term transmission service from the
Bonneville Power Administration or other transmission
providers.
The Parties anticipate that the Transaction will be subject to
higher or otherwise better offers submitted in connection
with a Bankruptcy Court supervised auction and sale
approval process (Parties shall consider jointly whether
auction process will be run through the Bankruptcy Court).
Accordingly, the Parties anticipate the following steps in the
Transaction:
Execution of this Letter of Intent;
Negotiation and execution of mutually acceptable
Definitive Agreements;
Filing of motion by MAl and/or its debtor affiliates with
the Bankruptcy Court to seek approval of the Transaction
and customary bidding protections and procedures,
including without limitation, customary overbid
protections and payment of a termination fee expected to
be in the range of 2-3% of the Purchase Price (the
8. Approval of Third Person
Purchaser
9. Documentation.
SE 2019101 v4
6/25/04 11:04 AM (25994.0009)
Exhibit A
Proposed Terms and Conditions
Termination Fee ) and payment of A vista s reasonable
fees and expenses up to a cap to be agreed, including
attorneys fees and expenses, in certain specified
circumstances to be defined in the Definitive
Agreements; rovided, that in the event the auction
process is not ron through the Bankruptcy Court, the
parties will provide for such bidding protections and
procedures in the Definitive Agreements.
Filing of all requisite regulatory approvals, including
without limitation Hart-Scott-Rodino flling, FERC filing
and approval from the Oregon Energy Facility Siting
Council for permission to transfer the Site Certificate.
It is understood, that if in accordance with the procedures
referenced above Mirant's interest in the Facility is to be
transferred to a person other than A vista, such transfer shall
be to a third party that meets certain minimum qualifications
substantially based on those set forth in the definition of a
Third Person Purchaser in the Operating Agreement and as
Mirant and A vista shall agree otherwise in the Defmitive
Agreements.
It is anticipated that the Transaction will be subject to the
same basic documentation that similar transactions between
the parties or their affiliates have used previously. Mirant
and A vista acknowledge and agree that neither party may
retain Heller Erhman White & McAuliffe LLP in relation to
the Transaction, however Heller Erhman White & McAuliffe
LLP may be retained solely by Coyote Springs 2, LLC for
assistance in providing form documents and in seeking
appropriate approvals (including those set forth in paragraph
4 of this Proposal) and the Project Company shall be
responsible for Heller Ehrman s fees and expenses. Both
Mirant and A vista shall retain separate counsel to assist and
advise on the Definitive Agreements and the Transaction
generally.
EXHIBIT G
2003 Integrated Resource Plan Excerpts
re Preferred Resource Mix
Application of A vista Corporation
Case No. AVU-O5-
V'STII~
...
~~r
Corp.
':\
Exhibit G
Page 1 of 2
The Preferred Resource Mix
Based on the conditions and limitations listed above, the LP Module determined a preferred mix
of new resources to meet the Company s future requirements. The Preferred Resource Strategy
includes the following mix of resources and quantities during the first ten years of the study
(2004-2013):
149 aMW of CCCT
25 aMW of wind
197 aMW coal
40 aMW of SCCT
By the end of the first ten years, a total of 411 aMW are developed. A depiction of the Preferred
Resource Strategy is included in the following graph. Significant annual deficiencies do not
develop until 2008, so the chart details only the years 2008 through 2013.
ca 300
en 250
:i:
Q) 200
~ 150
c:C
100
Chart 7.
Preferred Resource Mix (in aMW)
2008-2013
450
400 0 CCCT
. Wind
13 Peakers
. Coal
350
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
After 2013 , only coal is selected as a result of a change in the relationship between natural gas
and coal prices. Natural gas prices over the IRP term increase faster than coal, making coal
generation less costly in later years. In total, between 2014 and 2023, an additional 566 aMW of
coal resources are selected in the Preferred Resource Strategy.
Costs of Preferred Resource Strategy Versus "No Additions
. ,
Expected cost over the IRP term has traditionally been the benchmark of least-cost planning; and
generally includes capital recovery, operation and maintenance, fuel, and transmission costs.
This IRP continues to focus on expected power supply cost on a net present value (NPV) basis.
Under No Additions where no resource acquisitions are made, the ten-year NPV of the power
Section 7 Page 39 Results
Exhibit G
Page 2 of 2
EXHIBIT H
August/September 2004 Loads and Resources Position
Application of A vista Corporation
Case No. A VU-05-
Avista Utilities
Long- Term Energy Load and Resource Tabulation (aMW)
2005-2024
. ". '. ,. .
August 13 2004
';'. ,
Exhibit H
Page 1 of 4
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A vista Utilities
Long- Term Peak Load and Resource Tabulation (MW)
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, '
September 1, 2004
. O
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Exhibit H
Page 3 of 4
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Value Analysis
AURORA was utilized to dispatch 50% of Coyote Springs 2 (including the duct burner) against
20-year sets of fiXed hourly market prices starting in 2005, as described further below.
AURORA incorporated the plant s dispatch characteristics (e.g., minimum up time) to simulate
hourly operation and ultimately determine the value of the resource versus each set of market
pnces.
The electric and natural gas prices utilized in AURORA were initially based on monthly forward
prices taken from NUCLEUS on April 8, 2004. These prices were shaped hourly based on prices
from the 2003 Idaho General Rate Case. The resulting prices matched forward prices on a
monthly basis, but retained the hourly shape from the rate case. Electric and natural gas prices
were tied directly to NUCLEUS fo~ard prices through 2008, and escalated at 3% thereafter.
Numerous price scenarios, representing potential future spark spreads , were then created and
used as input prices for individual AURORA runs. Spark spread modifications were
implemented through changes to natural gas prices. Ultimately, four scenarios were used to
represent likely potential futures. These scenarios are described below:
1. Increasing Spark Spread
In this scenario spark spreads increased over time. Electric prices increased at 3% while
natural gas prices increased at 2% through the end of the study. This resulted in a gradual
increase in the spark spread through 2024. The resulting average spread was 9,453 BTUIkWh,
growing from 8,572 in 2005 to 10,346 in 2024. This scenario was designed to reflect a market
where electric prices are rising faster than gas prices.
2. Forwards/IRP Spark Spread
Spark spreads in this scenario were tied to forward prices through 2008. .After 2008, annual
spreads were matched with those from the 200.3 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The average
spark spread for this scenario was 10,928, growing from 8,165 in 2005 to 12,476 in 2024.
This scenario was designed to capture the most expected short and long-term prices. Forward
prices were used because they represent the actual prices available for purcha~es in the current
forward market. IRP prices were used because the IRP included significant analysis to
estimate long-term market conditions.
3. 10,500 Spark Spread
In this scenario the annual spark spread was set to 10,500 for the duration of the study. As
with the other scenarios, the spread still maintained the monthly shape inherent in the
forwards. This scenario was designed to represent a market where a cccr would be
marginally cost-effective through the entire duration of the study.
4. IRP Prices
Spark spreads in this scenario were taken directly from the 2003 IRP. The resulting average
was 12,482 BTUIkWh. This scenario effectively compares the plant against the avoided costs
that have been established for PURP A contracts
I For the purposes of this document, the term "spark spread" is used to describe the heat rate implied by the
relationship between natural gas and electric market prices. The spark spread for a given time period is the
electric price divided by the natural gas price muitiplied by 1,000 (e., $45/ $5 * 1000 = 9000 Btu/kWh).
Exhibit I
Page 2 of 22
The results for each scenario were adjusted by two factors. First, $2 rpillion per year was added
as an estimate for the value of the optimization of turbine fuel purchases through "heat rate
swaps" (transactions in the forward gas and electric markets to either buy fuel for the plant and
sell power or sell fuel from the plant and buy the power, depending on the spark spread). Next,
margins generated by the plant during Q2 ,of each year through 2008 were removed to represent a
conservative possibility that transmission may be restricted during certain periods in that quarter.
Transmission issues are further detailed later in the document.
The results for each scenario were input into a revenue requirements model and a marginal
benefit value, compared to the breakeven purchase price, was determined. 'Refer to the following
table for the detailed results.
Table 3 - Detailed Scenario Results
~m~ Scenario 3parkSpread BaseValue . W/OptionValue
~;
W/OQ2Tra0s'3
iBtulkWh) ($000) 1 ($/kW) ($000) ($/kW) , ($000) 1 (S/kW)
Increasing Spark 9,453 21,322 150 46,144 324 46,159 324
Fbiwa,rds/IRE:Sparki:
:: .:::::~::::::?::::::::;:::::
:::lO~92S.:::: ::
: .: .:::
4:3;:164::::: :::;:
;:::
30:3:;:~:
. ;::.::::::;::.
Q7~98:p~::
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::::A'78:::::
:::::::;:::.
p7:~9PQ::~: m::;Hm~4A1.
&;:;~
10,500 Spark 10,500 45,633 321 70,455 495 70,471 495
.m::~t::!::;:~::~);::::::l;:;:;~:IRE:::edce~)i: .;H/~::::::
:::
:::k::::12;:482:::::I::::;: 92.~:i:ot:
(: :::.?:::::
641E~ ::Y9l:1.p~92~;:;:: ;W~W::ti822::::: :;:;::;llG:~3:a.~~m :m~f~;jm:i~:!~6::1$;~!
(1) Value taken directly from AURORA model runs.
(2) Includes estimate of $2 million for value of heat rate swaps.
(3) Assumes no generation during Q2 through 2008.
" ,
The second scenario, "Forwards/IRP Spark," was determined to be the most expected
representation of future market prices because it incorporates the best representations of short-
term and long-term market conditions. Forward prices, because they represent actual prices for
gas and electricity in the cUrrent forward market, are the best representation of short-term prices.
But since forwards are only available for two to three years out, they are not adequate to represent
long-term market conditions. The 2003 IRP, on the other hand, incorporated significant analysis
utilizing the AURORA model to estimate long-term market conditions.
As shown in Table 3 above, the resulting breakeven market value for 50% of Coyote Springs 2
was roughly $68 million.
Exhibit I
Page 3 of 22
* Note: See CS2 Acquisition of Second Half - 2004 , Book 2, tab labeled
Option Value Back-Cast Analysis" (9-24-04) for a description of the option
value analysis
' .( .. '. ,
Exhibit I
Page 4 of 22
.
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AD. analysis was performed to determine the rate impacts of the selected scenario at various
purchase prices. The table below shows the estimated rate impacts for the breakeven price of $68
million, based upon the "PorwardslIRP Spark" scenario and the purchase price of $62.5 million
that was negotiated as a basis for the non-binding letter of intent to purchase the second half ofthe Coyote Springs 2 project.
Table 4 - Estimated Rate Impacts
2005 9,849 2.2% 8,847 2.0% .
:t2;Q()Q::ii: :i~::~t::::A:\m~$:igl~:t: ,%';UJW~,%:r :;::mW~:i~imt:9:~~'4:$f: /~:::;U:W~~~$tt~~~t2007 9,467 1.9% 8,533 1.8%
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, 2013 (2 860) -5% (3,605) -
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I 2015 (5,647) -8% (6,334) -1.0%
jj:;i~():XiQ~f ii51il~~W~'€)t$Q41% ~r!;~~Q~~q~~1, :;i*m~J~!lli:tq~~:()g);~~: Will~~~~~~:~Plr4~2017 (7 644) -1.1% (8,273) -1.1%
~\ifj~p:Ji;a::m ~~illWm~;1~($.~X$:lDjlli: ;~\~#:l~~li%'~.:l :~*;~lfWJfTh:6$!~7:$~1~mi!~$t%~'2019 (9,655) -1.2% ,(10,226) -1.3%
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m::;~Q~~::;/n::~::::(lih3$4:)~!::: ~:;~:,:Rl;::3:;o/q:m :~WiiimW.(:~!;~i;$~:alf!;::j~;~~i~~~:::~~~j;~:~4~t
2023 (14 595) -1.6% (15,050) -1.7%
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Exhibit I
Page 7 of 22
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