20220428_rn2.pdf

DECISION MEMORANDUM 1

DECISION MEMORANDUM

TO: COMMISSIONER ANDERSON
COMMISSIONER CHATBURN
COMMISSIONER HAMMOND
COMMISSION SECRETARY
COMMISSION STAFF
LEGAL

FROM: RILEY NEWTON
DEPUTY ATTORNEY GENERAL

DATE: APRIL 28, 2022

RE: IN THE MATTER OF IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL
COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS
IN THE INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
AVOIDED COST MODEL; CASE NO. IPC-E-21-35.

On March 10, 2022, the Commission issued Order No. 35344 requiring Idaho Power
Company (“Idaho Power”) to update the natural gas forecast and “(1) use NYMEX forwards prices
as of October 15, 2021, for years 2022, 2023, and 2024 of the 20-year forecast; (2) use an average
of year 2025 NYMEX forwards prices and year 2025 of the July 2021 vintage Platts forecast for
year 2025 of its forecast; (3) use the July 2021 vintage Platts forecast for the remaining years of
the forecast (years 2026-2014); and (4) submit the updated 20-year forecast as a compliance
filing.”
On April 1, 2022, Idaho Power submitted a compliance filing for the forecast stating
its assumption that “(years 2026 -2014)” was a typographical error that should have stated a range
of “(years 2026-2040).”
On April 4, 2022, the Commission issued Errata to Order No. 35344 clarifying that the
range of the forecast should have been: “(years 2026-2041).”
On April 8, 2022, Idaho Power submitted a replacement compliance filing to replace
the compliance filing submitted on April 1, 2022. The natural gas forecast contained in the
replacement compliance filing used the method required in Order No. 35344 for years 2022
through 2040. Because the July 2021 vintage Platts forecast only provides values through 2040,
Idaho Power used linear regression over the last five years of the Platts forecast (years 2036
through 2040) to produce a forecast value for the year 2041.
DECISION MEMORANDUM 2

STAFF ANALYSIS
Staff believes the natural gas forecast for years 2022 through 2041 submitted by Idaho
Power in its replacement compliance filing complies with Order No. 35344 and is comparable to
Avista Utilities’ natural gas forecast in Case No. AVU-E-21-14 and Rocky Mountain Power
Company’s natural gas forecast in Case No. PAC-E-21-20. Staff further believes it reasonable to
obtain the required 20-year forecast by extending the Platts July 2021 vintage forecast one year
using linear regression applied to the last five years of the Platts forecast.
STAFF RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends that the Commission approve Idaho Power’s replacement
compliance filing as filed on April 8, 2022.
COMMISSION DECISION
Does the Commission wish to approve Idaho Power’s replacement compliance filing
as filed on April 8, 2022?

___________________________
Riley Newton
Deputy Attorney General

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