20230119INT to Staff Attachment - Response to No. 56_Attachment 5.pdf

Blue Chip Financial Forecasts®

Top Analysts’ Forecasts Of U.S. And Foreign Interest Rates, Currency Values
And The Factors That Influence Them

Vol. 41, No. 6, June 1, 2022

Wolters Kluwer

BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS®
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Domestic Commentary – Highlights of May 25-26 Survey p. 1

Domestic Summary Table – Table of consensus forecasts of
U.S. interest rates and key economic assumptions p. 2

International Summary Table – Table of consensus forecasts of
international interest rates and foreign exchange values p. 3

International Commentary (by Sandy Batten) p. 3

Individual Panel Member’s U.S. Forecasts – Of interest rates and
key assumptions for the next six quarters p. 4-9

Individual Panel Member’s International Forecasts – Of
international interest rates and foreign exchange values p. 10-11

Special Questions – Results of special questions posed to panel
members about the economy, financial markets and government policy p. 12

Viewpoints – A sampling of views on the economy and government
policy excerpted from recent reports issued by our panel members p. 13

Long-Range Survey – Results of twice annual long-range survey
forecasts for the five years 2024 through 2028 and the five-year
period 2029-2033 p. 14

Databank – Monthly historical data on many key indicators of
economic activity p. 15

Calendar – Release dates for important upcoming economic
data, FOMC meetings, etc. p. 16

List of Contributing Economists – To Domestic and International
Survey inside of back cover

.
More Fed Tightening To Fight Inflation

Inflation Can Moderate without Recession. Inflation con-
tinues to be the main issue facing policymakers, investor and
traders, to say nothing of consumers and business managers.
To combat rising inflation, the Federal Reserve is tightening
monetary policy with both interest rate and balance sheet tools.
Against this backdrop, the Blue Chip Financial Forecast panel-
ists generally believe that inflation can be slowed without the
economy entering a recession. Indeed, in response to a specif-
ic Special Question, 72% of panelists believe this is the likely
outcome. Indeed, another Special Question’s results show that
the panel believes the probability of recession this year is just
25%, although it is expected to rise to 38% during 2023. This
latter expectation is still noticeably below 50%.

The Blue Chip Financial Forecasts inflation prospects are
slightly higher this month than last month. The personal con-
sumption expenditure price index rose at a 7.0% annual rate in
Q1 2022, unrevised from the initial report; the Blue Chip pan-
el’s estimate for Q2 is 5.8%, the same as last month. For Q3,
the panel currently looks for 4.3%, up from the May forecast
of 3.9%. While these forecasts are modestly higher, both are
well above the Federal Reserve’s target pace of 2%.

Fed Expected To Invoke Larger Increases in Rates. Thus,
there is clearly considerable work to be done to reduce infla-
tion. In a speech on Monday, May 30, Fed Governor Christo-
pher Waller emphasized the Fed’s shift to 50-basis-point in-
creases in the federal funds rate, and he expects at least a
couple more of them after the one at the May 3-4 FOMC meet-
ing. This view does correspond to the Blue Chip panel’s fore-
cast the rate rising to 2.4% for the fourth quarter of this year.
In addition, as Waller pointed out, the Fed’s purchases of
Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds ceased in
March and beginning today, June 1, the Fed will reduce its
balance sheet holdings by replacing only a portion of those
securities that mature. This may well contribute to increases in
long-term interest rates.

Long-Term Rates, Already Up, Expected To Rise Moder-
ately More. Longer-term interest rates are already reflecting
some response to higher inflation and the Fed’s shifting portfo-
lio strategy. Ten-year Treasury yields averaged 1.94% in Q1
this year but then reached 3.01% in the first week of May. On
May 31, they were trading at 2.86%. The Blue Chip panel
expects them to settle above 3% for the rest of this year and at
3.4% for much of 2023. With the tightening of monetary pol-
icy and still higher inflation, the greater financial risk would
generate somewhat wider credit spreads even in high-quality
securities. The spreads to Treasuries for high-rated corporate
bonds would also be somewhat wider; Aaa corporate bond
yields are seen by the panel to rise to 4.7% by Q4 this year,
130 basis points over 30-year Treasuries, and to maintain that
spread through 2023. For comparison, this spread averaged 80
basis points last year and 116 basis points during 2020.

Mortgage rates pierced 5% during April, according to Freddie
Mac data; this is the first time they have been that high since
2011. The Blue Chip panel projects them to increase to 5.5%
by Q4 2022 and to stay there during 2023.

Semi-Annual Long-Term Financial Outlook

The Blue Chip surveys check out longer-term prospects twice
a year. The last check on a longer-term view of financial mar-
kets was in December. The pace of inflation and the overall
level of interest rates are considerably higher now than they
were back then. In particular, the 7.0% inflation rate for the
PCE price index in Q1 and the current Blue Chip 5.8% esti-
mate for Q2 compare to 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively, in the
December forecasts. The 2022 inflation forecast is noticeably
higher than it was the last time longer-run estimates were col-
lected. The earlier projection put 2022 inflation at 3.9% over
2021 while the current estimate is 5.8%. By 2025, the Blue
Chip panel projects that PCE inflation will slow to 2.3%, just
marginally higher than the 2.1% in the December survey. This
suggests longer-term interest rates at 3.4% for 10-year Treas-
uries in 2025 would be somewhat higher than the 3.1% ex-
pected back in December. And the 3.4% level indicates that
the current rate range would be sustained over the long haul.

This is the first longer-term look at SOFR, the secured over-
night financing rate that we began to cover late in 2021 as the
key measure of short-term private sector borrowing cost. It is
currently at 0.78% and estimated for this year to average 1.3%.
Going forward, that is for 2025, the Blue Chip Financial Fore-
casts panel projects it at 2.5% and at levels very similar to the
fed funds rate.

Carol Stone, CBE (Haver Analytics, New York, NY)

2  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  JUNE 1, 2022
Consensus Forecasts of U.S. Interest Rates and Key Assumptions
-------------------------------------History----------------------------------------- Consensus Forecasts-Quarterly Avg.
-------Average For Week Ending------ ----Average For Month--- Latest Qtr 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
Interest Rates May 20 May 13 May 6 Apr 29 Apr Mar Feb 1Q 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023
Federal Funds Rate 0.83 0.83 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.20 0.08 0.12 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1
Prime Rate 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.37 3.25 3.29 4.0 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.2
SOFR 0.79 0.78 0.49 0.28 0.29 0.16 0.05 0.09 0.9 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0
Commercial Paper, 1-mo. 0.83 0.82 0.71 0.55 0.44 0.32 0.16 0.18 0.9 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.0
Treasury bill, 3-mo. 1.05 0.94 0.88 0.85 0.76 0.45 0.31 0.30 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0
Treasury bill, 6-mo. 1.54 1.44 1.43 1.40 1.26 0.86 0.64 0.61 1.5 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.1
Treasury bill, 1 yr. 2.11 2.00 2.10 2.03 1.89 1.34 1.00 0.96 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2
Treasury note, 2 yr. 2.64 2.61 2.72 2.62 2.54 1.91 1.44 1.44 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2
Treasury note, 5 yr. 2.86 2.89 3.00 2.84 2.78 2.11 1.81 1.82 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4
Treasury note, 10 yr. 2.87 2.94 3.01 2.83 2.75 2.13 1.93 1.94 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4
Treasury note, 30 yr. 3.07 3.09 3.10 2.91 2.81 2.41 2.25 2.25 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6
Corporate Aaa bond 4.43 4.42 4.40 4.19 4.01 3.63 3.36 3.35 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9
Corporate Baa bond 5.13 5.10 5.06 4.84 4.63 4.23 3.92 3.90 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8
State & Local bonds 4.09 4.03 3.93 3.84 3.70 3.30 3.01 3.02 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2
Home mortgage rate 5.25 5.30 5.27 5.10 4.98 4.17 3.76 3.79 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5
----------------------------------------History------------------------------------------- Consensus Forecasts-Quarterly
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
Key Assumptions 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023
Fed’s AFE $ Index 112.4 107.2 105.1 103.4 102.9 105.0 107.0 108.4 112.7 113.9 114.1 114.0 113.6 112.9
Real GDP -31.2 33.8 4.5 6.3 6.7 2.3 6.9 -1.5 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.6
GDP Price Index -1.5 3.6 2.2 4.3 6.1 6.0 7.1 8.1 5.9 4.6 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.7
Consumer Price Index -3.4 4.8 2.2 4.1 8.2 6.7 7.9 9.2 7.6 4.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.6
PCE Price Index -1.6 3.7 1.5 3.8 6.5 5.3 6.4 7.0 5.8 4.3 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.5

Forecasts for interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s Major Currency Index represent averages for the quarter. Forecasts for Real GDP, GDP Price Index, PCE Price Index and
Consumer Price Index are seasonally-adjusted annual rates of change (saar). Individual panel members’ forecasts are on pages 4 through 9. Historical data: Treasury rates from
the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15; AAA-AA and A-BBB corporate bond yields from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and are 15+ years, yield to maturity; State and local bond
yields from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, A-rated, yield to maturity; Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac, 30-year, fixed; LIBOR quotes from Intercontinental Exchange. All
interest rate data are sourced from Haver Analytics. Historical data for Fed’s Major Currency Index are from FRSR H.10. Historical data for Real GDP, GDP Price Index and
PCE Price Index are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Consumer Price Index history is from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

0.00
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3mo 6mo 1yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 30yr
Pe
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Maturities
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
Week ended May 20, 2022 & Year Ago vs.
2Q 2022 & 3Q 2023
Consensus Forecasts
Year Ago
Week ended 05/20/2022
Consensus 2Q 2022
Consensus 3Q 2023
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1Q'09 1Q'11 1Q'13 1Q'15 1Q'17 1Q'19 1Q'21 1Q'23
Pe
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e
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t

US 3-Mo T-Bills & 10-Yr T-Note Yield
(Quarterly Average)
History Forecast
Consensus10-Yr T-Note Yield
Consensus
3-MoT-Bill Yield
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Corporate Bond Spreads
As of week ended May 20, 2022
Aaa Corporate
Bond Yield
minus 10-Yr T-
Note Yield
Baa Corporate
Bond Yield
minus 10-Yr T-
Note Yield
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
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U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
As of week ended May 20, 2022
10-Yr T-Note minus
3-Mo T-Bill (Constant
Maturity Yields)

JUNE 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  3

-------------Policy Rates1-----------------
-----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts
Month Year Months From Now:
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12
U.S. 0.88 0.38 0.13 1.88 2.45 3.19 Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.06 -0.03
U.K. 1.00 0.75 0.10 1.26 1.45 1.84
Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.69 -0.56 -0.18
Canada 1.00 1.00 0.25 2.00 2.46 3.07
Australia 0.35 0.10 0.10 0.82 1.13 1.65
Euro area 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.21 0.48

-----------10-Yr. Government Bond Yields2------
--------- -----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts
Month Year Months From Now:
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12
U.S. 2.78 2.90 1.63 3.08 3.12 3.19
Germany 0.94 0.97 -0.13 1.15 1.23 1.35
Japan 0.24 0.25 0.09 0.26 0.26 0.25
U.K. 1.90 1.98 0.92 1.91 2.19 2.35
France 1.47 1.43 0.25 1.68 1.72 1.81
Italy 2.99 2.69 1.03 3.00 3.01 2.98
Switzerland 0.69 0.91 -0.14 0.86 1.01 1.15
Canada 2.83 2.87 1.54 3.12 3.21 3.28
Australia 3.31 3.13 1.63 3.27 3.53 3.66
Spain 2.02 1.83 0.58 2.11 2.21 2.35

----------------Foreign Exchange Rates3-----------
----- -----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts
Month Year Months From Now:
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12
U.S. 114.22 112.44 101.68 114.0 113.4 112.4
Japan 127.86 128.78 108.94 126.9 125.1 122.7
U.K. 1.25 1.28 1.42 1.26 1.27 1.29
Switzerland 0.97 0.96 0.90 0.96 0.94 0.93
Canada 1.28 1.27 1.21 1.25 1.24 1.24
Australia 0.70 0.73 0.77 0.72 0.72 0.71
Euro 1.06 1.08 1.22 1.07 1.07 1.11

Consensus Consensus
Policy Rates
vs. US Rate
10-Year Gov’t
Yields vs. U.S. Yield
Now In 12 Mo. Now In 12 Mo.
Japan -0.98 -3.22 Germany -1.84 -1.84
U.K. 0.13 -1.35 Japan -2.54 -2.94
Switzerland -1.63 -3.36 U.K. -0.88 -0.83
Canada 0.13 -0.12 France -1.31 -1.38
Australia -0.53 -1.54 Italy 0.21 -0.20
Euro area -0.88 -2.71 Switzerland -2.09 -2.04
Canada 0.05 0.09 Australia 0.53 0.47
Spain -0.76 -0.84

Forecasts of panel members are on pages 10 and 11. Definitions of vari-
ables are as follows: 1Monetary policy rates. 2Government bonds are
yields to maturity. 3Foreign exchange rate forecasts for U.K., Australia
and the Euro are U.S. dollars per currency unit. For the U.S dollar,
forecasts are of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s AFE Dollar Index.

International. The global economic recovery from the pandemic,
which has been rather resilient, is beginning to show signs of cracking
under the strain of the ongoing fallout from the Russia-Ukraine con-
flict, lingering supply-chain problems exacerbated by COVID lock-
downs in China, a further rise in food and energy prices, and a broad-
ening bevy of central banks attempting to corral inflation with higher
domestic policy interest rates. Real GDP in the first quarter declined
in several major economies—e.g., the US, Japan, France and Italy.
And while UK GDP posted a solid increase in Q1, the pace of activity
slowed during the quarter with monthly GDP declining in March.
Looking into Q2, flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes generally
pointed to a further slowing in activity in May, notably in China. By
contrast and despite inflation delivering a big blow to purchasing
power, consumer spending was comparatively solid in Q1 across most
developed economies.
At the center of the rising global recession risk is the move to less
accommodative monetary policy all across the globe to combat dec-
ades-high inflation rates. In May, there were 34 policy interest rate
increases with the vast majority made by emerging market central
banks in an attempt to stem the fall in their currencies. For developed
economies, the increased intensity of policy rate hikes has been led by
the US Fed, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of New Zea-
land with each increasing their policy interest rates in May. The Fed
raised its federal funds rate target by 50bps, the first increase of this
size in more than 20 years. Moreover, subsequent comments from
myriad Fed officials have led financial markets to expect additional
50bp increases in the near term (see lead commentary). The Bank of
England raised its base interest rate for the fourth time in as many
meetings. The increase was 25 bps with three members of the commit-
tee voting for a 50bp hike, although the committee’s rhetoric concern-
ing likely future rate increases was softened a bit. The RBNZ raised its
policy interest rate, also for the fourth time in as many meetings, by 50
bps, the second consecutive 50bp increase and raising the rate to
2.00%, above where it was just prior to the pandemic.
A major policy reversal came from the Reserve Bank of Australia. It
completely surprised financial market expectations and retreated
markedly from previous guidance by raising its policy rate 25 bps at
its early May meeting, the first increase in more than a decade. With
inflation having accelerated markedly in recent months and the Bank
having raised its inflation outlook meaningfully, financial markets are
now looking for a series of further policy rate increases ahead.
The European Central Bank came in a close second for policy U-turns.
In a blog on the Bank’s website, President Lagarde provided a very
detailed argument as to why the pre-pandemic and the ensuing emer-
gency pandemic policy settings are no longer appropriate. She argued
that the inflation outlook has shifted upwards relative to prior to the
pandemic. And so policy interest rates should also be adjusted up.
Leaving policy rates unchanged in such an environment, she noted,
would be an implicit easing of monetary policy, which would not be
warranted. She expects asset purchases to end early in the third quar-
ter, which “would allow us a rate lift-off at our meeting in July…and
be in a position to exit negative interest rates by the end of the third
quarter.” Market rate expectations have been adjusted up accordingly.
The central banks of Japan and China continue to be the outliers in the
global shift to less accommodative monetary policies. In the face of a
sharply slowing domestic economy owing in large part to extremely
onerous COVID lockdowns, the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly
eased policy on May 20 with a 15bp cut in its benchmark rate on loans
of five years or more to 4.45%, the largest single reduction since the
rate took on policy significance in 2019. The Bank of Japan left its
extremely accommodative policy unchanged at its late April meeting.
4  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  JUNE 1, 2022

------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
Scotiabank Group 1.5 H 4.5 H 1.3 na 1.9 H na 2.4 H 2.8 3.0 3.0 na na na na na na 4.7 8.0 9.6 H 7.9 H
Bank of America 1.4 na 1.7 H na na na na 3.0 H 3.2 H 3.2 H 3.2 na na na na na 3.1 6.3 8.7 5.3
Barclays 1.4 4.5 H na na na na na 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 na na na na na 5.0 5.3 8.8 5.7
BNP Paribas Americas 1.4 na na na na na na 2.6 na 2.5 2.7 na na na na na 2.8 na 6.5 na
Goldman Sachs & Co.1.4 na na na 1.5 na na 2.8 3.2 H 3.2 H 3.3 na na na na na 2.5 5.1 7.5 5.1
ING 1.4 na 1.5 na na na na 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 na na na na na 3.0 na na na
Mizuho Research Institute 1.4 na na na na na na na na 2.6 na na na na na na na na na na
NatWest Markets 1.4 4.4 na 1.5 H 1.9 H 2.0 H 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 4.3 5.3 H 3.6 4.4 na 6.0 H 7.5 9.2 6.6
Nomura Securities, Inc.1.4 4.5 H na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 2.6 4.2 9.3 5.8
ACIMA Private Wealth 1.3 4.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.9 5.0 1.9 L 5.4 112.0 3.5 6.5 7.0 5.3
TS Lombard 1.3 4.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.5 L 2.8 4.6 114.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 1.1 4.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 4.3 4.9 3.8 4.9 114.6 2.0 5.6 7.0 5.8
GLC Financial Economics 1.0 4.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.7 4.6 3.3 4.9 110.8 1.5 6.9 6.0 6.5
J.P. Morgan Chase 1.0 na na na na na na 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 L na na na na na 3.3 5.0 8.0 7.3
Wells Fargo 1.0 4.0 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 4.1 4.9 3.5 5.3 na 2.3 6.5 8.4 6.4
Bank of the West 0.9 4.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 4.2 5.0 4.0 5.1 113.9 2.5 5.0 7.9 5.9
BMO Capital Markets 0.9 4.0 0.7 na 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 na na na 5.2 113.7 2.6 6.6 9.1 7.4
Daiwa Capital Markets America 0.9 4.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.2 5.2 na 5.3 113.0 2.0 5.5 8.0 5.2
Economist Intelligence Unit 0.9 4.0 na 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 na na na 5.2 na 2.2 na 9.0 na
Loomis, Sayles & Company 0.9 4.0 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 4.3 5.2 4.2 H 5.0 113.2 1.6 6.3 7.9 6.3
Swiss Re 0.9 4.0 na 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.3 5.0 na 5.3 113.4 4.4 8.9 H 7.8 4.2
Via Nova Investment Mgt.0.9 4.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.4 H 5.1 4.1 5.5 113.6 3.0 5.6 6.8 5.7
Action Economics 0.8 4.0 0.5 L 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.0 5.0 2.9 5.5 108.4 L 3.4 6.9 8.2 6.2
Chan Economics 0.8 3.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.5 L 3.6 5.0 114.5 2.5 5.5 7.9 5.9
Chmura Economics & Analytics 0.8 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 4.1 na na 5.2 110.0 1.1 L 7.1 8.7 6.2
Comerica Bank 0.8 3.9 na na 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.1 4.2 5.1 na 5.2 na 5.4 6.8 7.6 6.1
DePrince & Assoc.0.8 3.7 L 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 4.1 5.1 3.4 5.2 115.1 H 2.9 6.1 6.3 5.8
Fannie Mae 0.8 3.9 na na 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0 na na na 5.1 na 1.6 5.5 5.8 5.2
Georgia State University 0.8 4.0 na na 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 4.3 5.0 na 4.5 na 1.7 5.8 7.0 4.6
Grant Thornton/Diane Swonk 0.8 3.9 0.7 0.5 L 0.5 L 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.8 5.3 H na 5.4 na 1.5 5.6 5.3 5.0
Moody's Analytics 0.8 3.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.2 4.3 5.3 H 3.5 5.3 na 3.6 4.2 6.5 5.8
Oxford Economics 0.8 4.0 0.7 na 1.1 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.6 L na na 5.6 H 111.8 2.7 5.2 9.5 7.0
Regions Financial Corporation 0.8 3.9 1.7 H 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.9 4.2 5.0 3.7 5.2 113.2 2.7 5.4 7.6 5.9
S&P Global Ratings 0.8 3.9 0.8 na 0.9 0.9 L 1.2 L 1.5 L 2.0 L 2.2 L 2.6 na na na 4.3 L na 2.1 3.2 L 4.0 L 3.0 L
The Northern Trust Company 0.8 3.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.4 H 4.4 H 5.1 4.2 H 4.9 112.0 3.4 6.2 7.8 5.8
Thru the Cycle 0.8 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.1 4.8 3.8 5.0 113.9 3.2 5.1 8.5 5.7
Amherst Pierpont Securities 0.7 L 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 4.1 5.1 3.3 5.2 113.3 3.9 6.1 8.9 6.4
PNC Financial Services Corp.0.7 L 3.9 0.7 na 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 na 4.9 3.3 5.1 109.7 3.7 6.7 8.6 6.9
S&P Global Market Intelligence 0.7 L 3.9 0.6 na 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0 na na na 5.2 na 1.9 4.7 5.3 5.1
Societe Generale 0.7 L 3.9 0.7 na 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 na na na na na 4.0 5.1 7.1 5.5
June Consensus 1.0 4.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 4.1 5.0 3.5 5.1 112.7 2.9 5.9 7.6 5.8
Top 10 Avg. 1.4 4.3 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.3 5.2 3.9 5.4 114.0 4.4 7.2 9.1 6.9
Bottom 10 Avg. 0.8 3.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.9 4.8 3.2 4.8 111.4 1.7 4.7 5.8 4.8
May Consensus 1.0 4.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 4.0 4.8 3.4 4.9 110.9 2.8 5.6 6.9 5.8
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 3 5 5 4 11 8 6 6 8 4 3 4 2 3 2 1 18 10 9 12
Same 27 21 17 9 7 5 15 15 12 20 12 10 8 7 11 2 5 7 6 5
Up 10 8 6 9 15 18 11 17 17 15 22 10 13 8 17 16 16 19 23 19
Diffusion Index 59%54%52%61%56%66%58%64%62%64%76%63%74%64%75%89%47%63%68%60%
Second Quarter 2022
Interest Rate Forecasts Key Assumptions
Prime SOFR
Fgn Econ
1
Federal
Funds
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------
$ Index
Avg. For
---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv

JUNE 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  5
------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
Scotiabank Group 2.5 H 5.5 H 2.3 na 2.6 H na 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 na na na na na na 2.7 5.2 5.5 4.5
BNP Paribas Americas 2.4 na na na na na na 2.7 na 2.6 2.7 na na na na na 2.6 na 2.9 na
ING 2.4 na 2.5 H na na na na 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 na na na na na 2.8 na na na
Nomura Securities, Inc.2.4 5.5 H na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 2.6 3.8 6.8 5.1
Via Nova Investment Mgt.2.2 5.4 2.2 2.3 H 2.4 2.9 H 3.6 H 4.1 H 4.3 H 4.3 H 4.5 H 5.7 H 6.3 H 5.3 H 6.7 H 115.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 3.9
Bank of America 2.1 na 2.3 na na na na 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 na na na na na 2.5 5.7 5.4 4.2
Barclays 2.1 5.3 na na na na na 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 na na na na na 4.0 4.2 5.0 4.3
Goldman Sachs & Co.2.1 na na na 2.1 na na 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 na na na na na 2.3 5.6 6.1 5.0
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 2.1 5.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 5.3 5.9 4.7 5.8 115.2 2.4 4.1 4.2 3.3
NatWest Markets 2.1 5.1 na 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 L 4.3 5.3 3.5 4.3 L na 2.5 5.7 5.0 4.7
ACIMA Private Wealth 2.0 4.3 L 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.8 L 5.2 1.5 L 5.0 115.0 1.5 5.0 4.5 4.0
Bank of the West 2.0 5.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.5 5.3 4.3 5.4 116.2 H 1.9 3.8 5.2 4.8
BMO Capital Markets 2.0 5.2 1.7 na 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 na na na 5.4 114.3 2.5 6.3 6.3 6.0 H
Economist Intelligence Unit 2.0 5.1 na 1.9 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 na na na 5.5 na 1.6 na 5.6 na
TS Lombard 2.0 5.1 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.6 4.4 5.2 3.5 5.3 116.0 3.5 4.8 4.8 4.8
Wells Fargo 2.0 5.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.7 5.5 4.0 5.4 na 2.0 4.8 5.6 4.7
Action Economics 1.9 5.1 1.3 L 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.1 5.1 2.9 5.5 114.1 3.6 4.5 4.2 3.7
J.P. Morgan Chase 1.9 na na na na na na 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 na na na na na 2.8 3.2 5.6 5.1
Loomis, Sayles & Company 1.9 5.0 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.6 5.6 4.5 5.3 114.6 2.4 5.6 5.7 5.2
Mizuho Research Institute 1.9 na na na na na na na na 2.8 na na na na na na na na na na
Comerica Bank 1.8 4.9 na na 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.4 5.4 na 5.4 na 0.8 6.0 5.8 4.8
Daiwa Capital Markets America 1.8 4.9 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 5.1 6.1 na 6.0 115.0 1.4 4.2 4.5 4.2
Fannie Mae 1.8 4.9 na na 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 na na na 5.0 na 2.9 5.1 4.8 4.4
GLC Financial Economics 1.8 5.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.9 3.7 5.1 111.4 2.0 5.2 3.2 3.7
Oxford Economics 1.8 4.9 1.8 na 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.8 L na na 5.7 112.9 1.8 2.8 3.5 3.1
PNC Financial Services Corp.1.8 4.9 1.7 na 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 na 5.0 3.3 5.2 110.7 2.7 5.0 4.1 4.1
Swiss Re 1.8 5.0 na 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.3 5.0 na 5.2 114.5 3.6 5.6 3.3 2.6
The Northern Trust Company 1.8 4.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.6 4.6 5.1 111.0 2.7 4.2 4.9 3.7
Thru the Cycle 1.8 4.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 4.1 4.8 L 3.8 4.9 114.7 3.0 4.2 7.0 5.7
Amherst Pierpont Securities 1.7 4.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.5 5.6 3.7 5.6 114.3 5.2 H 5.3 5.0 4.3
Chmura Economics & Analytics 1.7 4.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 4.6 na na 5.6 109.9 L 2.2 6.8 H 7.5 H 5.9
DePrince & Assoc.1.7 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 4.6 5.6 3.9 5.4 114.2 2.9 4.0 4.2 3.8
Grant Thornton/Diane Swonk 1.7 4.9 1.7 1.1 L 1.0 L 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.4 5.4 na 5.6 na 0.6 L 5.3 4.1 3.9
S&P Global Market Intelligence 1.7 4.9 1.7 na 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 na na na 5.3 na 2.3 4.9 4.0 4.1
Societe Generale 1.7 4.8 1.7 na 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 na na na na na 1.6 3.8 4.5 4.2
Georgia State University 1.6 4.8 na na 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.5 4.9 5.8 na 5.2 na 1.1 4.0 4.7 3.1
Moody's Analytics 1.6 4.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.6 5.7 3.7 5.2 na 2.9 4.0 3.7 3.3
Chan Economics 1.5 4.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.4 5.2 4.3 5.7 114.7 3.0 4.5 5.5 4.9
Regions Financial Corporation 1.5 4.7 1.3 L 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.0 4.4 5.2 3.8 5.3 114.4 2.6 4.5 5.4 4.7
S&P Global Ratings 1.4 L 4.5 1.4 na 1.4 1.4 L 1.6 L 1.9 L 2.2 L 2.4 L 2.6 na na na 4.3 L na 2.8 1.1 L 2.0 L 1.5 L
June Consensus 1.9 5.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.5 5.4 3.8 5.3 113.9 2.5 4.6 4.8 4.3
Top 10 Avg. 2.2 5.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.9 5.8 4.3 5.8 115.1 3.5 5.8 6.2 5.3
Bottom 10 Avg. 1.6 4.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 4.2 5.1 3.3 4.9 112.7 1.4 3.5 3.5 3.2
May Consensus 1.7 4.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 4.2 5.1 3.7 5.1 111.5 2.7 4.0 4.3 3.9
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 2 3 3 2 4 3 3 7 7 6 4 2 1 1 2 0 21 2 4 5
Same 12 10 6 6 9 11 10 9 9 11 9 4 6 4 7 1 11 9 7 7
Up 26 21 19 14 20 17 19 22 21 22 24 18 16 13 21 18 7 25 27 24
Diffusion Index 80%76%79%77%74%73%75%70%69%71%77%83%83%83%82%97%32%82%80%76%
Key Assumptions
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------
SOFR
Third Quarter 2022
Interest Rate Forecasts
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
Fgn Econ
$ Index
Avg. For
---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv

6  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  JUNE 1, 2022

------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
Scotiabank Group 3.0 H 6.0 H 2.8 na 2.8 na 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 na na na na na na 3.5 3.9 4.1 2.9
BNP Paribas Americas 2.9 na na na na na na 2.8 na 2.7 2.8 na na na na na 2.2 na 2.8 na
Nomura Securities, Inc.2.9 6.0 H na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 1.8 2.9 4.0 3.4
Wells Fargo 2.8 5.8 2.6 2.8 H 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.8 5.7 4.1 5.5 na 2.1 3.6 3.9 3.6
ING 2.7 na 3.0 H na na na na 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 na na na na na 2.1 na na na
Bank of America 2.6 na 2.8 na na na na 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 na na na na na 1.8 5.0 3.3 3.1
Barclays 2.6 5.8 na na na na na 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.0 na na na na na 2.5 2.4 1.8 2.2
Goldman Sachs & Co.2.6 na na na 2.5 na na 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 na na na na na 1.5 4.0 2.7 3.3
Loomis, Sayles & Company 2.6 5.8 2.6 2.6 2.9 H 3.2 H 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.7 5.6 4.6 5.4 114.6 2.3 3.5 4.0 3.9
NatWest Markets 2.6 5.6 na 2.7 2.9 H 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 4.3 5.2 3.5 4.3 L na 2.0 4.5 2.0 3.1
TS Lombard 2.6 5.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 H 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.9 3.5 3.6 4.4 5.2 3.5 5.3 118.0 H 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
ACIMA Private Wealth 2.5 4.5 L 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 L 2.0 L 2.1 L 3.7 L 5.3 1.0 L 4.5 118.0 H 0.5 L 3.0 3.3 2.0
BMO Capital Markets 2.5 5.6 2.4 na 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 na na na 5.5 113.8 1.9 3.6 3.7 3.5
Chan Economics 2.5 5.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.2 H 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.4 6.2 5.3 6.7 115.0 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.4
J.P. Morgan Chase 2.5 na na na na na na 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 na na na na na 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.2
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 2.5 5.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.5 5.7 6.5 5.1 6.2 115.8 2.5 2.7 3.2 2.9
Swiss Re 2.5 5.6 na 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.4 5.1 na 5.1 113.7 2.8 4.8 2.3 2.6
Via Nova Investment Mgt.2.5 5.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.2 H 3.9 H 4.4 H 4.6 H 4.7 H 4.8 H 6.1 H 6.7 H 5.7 H 7.1 H 115.0 2.7 3.5 3.3 3.0
Action Economics 2.4 5.5 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.1 5.1 3.0 5.6 115.7 3.4 3.3 2.5 2.3
Bank of the West 2.4 5.5 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 4.6 5.5 4.5 5.6 115.9 1.8 3.5 4.7 4.2
Chmura Economics & Analytics 2.4 5.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.8 na na 5.8 109.7 1.4 6.4 H 7.1 H 5.1
Daiwa Capital Markets America 2.4 5.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 5.7 6.7 H na 6.6 115.0 1.3 3.9 4.0 3.8
DePrince & Assoc.2.4 5.5 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.9 5.7 4.1 5.6 113.3 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.4
Economist Intelligence Unit 2.4 5.5 na 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 na na na 5.5 na 1.4 na 3.7 na
Oxford Economics 2.4 5.5 2.3 na 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.8 na na 5.8 111.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5
Amherst Pierpont Securities 2.3 5.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.8 5.9 3.9 5.8 115.0 3.7 H 4.5 3.8 3.4
Comerica Bank 2.3 5.4 na na 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 5.3 na 5.4 na 2.4 3.8 5.6 5.3 H
Fannie Mae 2.3 5.5 na na 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 na na na 4.9 na 2.0 3.1 3.2 3.2
PNC Financial Services Corp.2.3 5.5 2.3 na 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 na 5.0 3.4 5.2 109.3 L 1.8 3.7 3.0 3.1
S&P Global Market Intelligence 2.3 5.5 2.3 na 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 na na na 5.3 na 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.8
The Northern Trust Company 2.3 5.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.9 5.8 4.9 5.3 110.5 2.5 3.6 3.1 3.1
GLC Financial Economics 2.2 5.3 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.4 5.5 3.8 5.2 111.5 2.4 3.7 2.5 2.6
Societe Generale 2.2 5.4 2.2 na 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 na na na na na 1.3 3.2 4.1 3.8
Thru the Cycle 2.2 5.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.9 4.1 4.8 L 3.8 4.8 115.6 2.1 3.4 5.3 4.9
Grant Thornton/Diane Swonk 2.1 5.3 2.1 1.1 L 1.1 L 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 4.4 5.3 na 6.1 na 1.2 2.6 1.4 2.1
Moody's Analytics 2.1 5.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.7 5.7 3.7 5.2 na 2.7 3.5 2.6 2.6
Regions Financial Corporation 2.1 5.2 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 4.5 5.4 3.9 5.4 114.8 2.5 3.8 4.5 4.1
Georgia State University 2.0 5.2 na na 1.9 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.7 5.0 6.0 na 5.5 na 1.4 3.4 4.0 2.6
Mizuho Research Institute 1.9 na na na na na na na na 2.9 na na na na na na na na na na
S&P Global Ratings 1.5 L 4.6 1.5 L na 1.5 1.5 L 1.6 L 1.9 L 2.3 L 2.5 2.7 na na na 4.4 na 2.3 0.7 L 1.1 L 1.2 L
June Consensus 2.4 5.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 4.7 5.6 4.0 5.5 114.1 2.2 3.5 3.4 3.2
Top 10 Avg. 2.7 5.8 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1 5.2 6.1 4.6 6.1 115.9 3.0 4.5 4.8 4.4
Bottom 10 Avg. 2.1 5.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 4.2 5.2 3.4 4.9 112.3 1.4 2.4 2.0 2.1
May Consensus 2.2 5.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.4 5.3 3.8 5.2 111.7 2.4 3.4 3.4 3.2
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 1 3 2 1 4 3 3 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 3 2 21 4 9 9
Same 12 8 7 6 9 9 8 12 9 12 9 4 5 5 5 1 9 10 11 9
Up 27 23 19 15 20 19 21 21 23 22 24 18 16 12 22 16 9 22 18 18
Diffusion Index 83%79%80%82%74%76%78%71%74%72%77%83%80%81%82%87%35%75%62%63%
Key Assumptions
SOFR
Fourth Quarter 2022
Interest Rate Forecasts
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------
Fgn Econ
$ Index
Avg. For
---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv

JUNE 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  7

------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
TS Lombard 4.3 H 7.4 H 4.2 H 4.2 H 4.3 H 4.3 H 4.2 H 4.0 4.5 3.8 3.9 4.7 5.5 3.8 5.6 120.0 H 2.5 3.8 3.8 3.8
Nomura Securities, Inc.3.4 6.5 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 1.0 2.5 3.6 2.8
Wells Fargo 3.3 6.3 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.9 5.8 4.2 5.5 na 2.3 3.7 2.2 2.7
Bank of America 3.1 na 3.0 na na na na 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 na na na na na 1.5 4.7 2.9 2.7
BNP Paribas Americas 3.1 na na na na na na 2.8 na 2.7 2.8 na na na na na 1.6 na 2.6 na
ING 3.1 na 3.2 na na na na 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 na na na na na 1.6 na na na
Loomis, Sayles & Company 3.1 6.3 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.6 5.5 4.5 5.3 114.6 2.2 3.6 3.6 3.5
Economist Intelligence Unit 3.0 6.1 na 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.2 H 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 na na na 5.5 na 1.3 na 3.6 na
J.P. Morgan Chase 3.0 na na na na na na 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 na na na na na 1.8 2.2 2.9 2.5
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 3.0 5.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.2 H 6.4 H 7.2 H 5.7 H 6.8 116.0 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.2
Scotiabank Group 3.0 6.0 2.8 na 2.8 na 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 na na na na na na 3.1 H 3.9 3.9 3.0
Barclays 2.9 6.0 na na na na na 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 na na na na na 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.0
Chan Economics 2.9 5.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.7 H 4.8 H 4.9 H 5.0 5.8 6.6 5.7 H 7.1 H 114.9 2.5 3.7 4.4 4.1
Daiwa Capital Markets America 2.9 6.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 6.1 7.2 H na 6.9 116.0 1.1 3.5 3.5 3.3
Goldman Sachs & Co.2.9 na na na 2.8 na na 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 na na na na na 1.3 3.6 3.0 3.0
NatWest Markets 2.9 5.9 na 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 4.3 5.3 3.4 4.2 L na 1.8 4.0 2.3 3.3
Amherst Pierpont Securities 2.8 6.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 5.0 6.0 4.1 6.0 115.5 2.9 4.1 3.4 3.1
Bank of the West 2.8 5.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 5.0 5.9 4.8 5.8 115.3 1.6 2.9 3.4 3.2
Chmura Economics & Analytics 2.8 5.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.8 na na 5.8 109.3 2.3 5.6 H 6.5 H 4.9 H
DePrince & Assoc.2.8 5.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 5.0 5.8 4.2 5.7 113.8 2.3 3.3 3.4 3.2
Fannie Mae 2.8 6.0 na na 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 na na na 4.9 na 1.0 3.0 2.7 2.6
Oxford Economics 2.8 5.9 2.8 na 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.9 na na 5.7 110.5 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.2 L
PNC Financial Services Corp.2.8 6.0 2.8 na 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 na 5.0 3.4 5.2 108.9 L 1.6 3.2 2.5 2.6
S&P Global Market Intelligence 2.8 6.0 2.8 na 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 na na na 5.2 na 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.5
The Northern Trust Company 2.8 6.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.9 5.1 5.4 110.0 2.1 3.2 2.7 2.8
Via Nova Investment Mgt.2.8 6.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 6.1 6.7 5.7 H 7.0 114.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.7
BMO Capital Markets 2.7 5.8 2.7 na 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 na na na 5.6 113.3 1.4 3.1 3.4 3.2
Comerica Bank 2.7 5.8 na na 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.2 4.2 5.1 na 5.3 na 1.4 3.5 3.6 3.9
Action Economics 2.6 5.8 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.1 5.1 3.0 5.6 115.8 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.2
Grant Thornton/Diane Swonk 2.6 5.8 2.6 1.3 L 1.3 L 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.5 5.4 na 6.3 na 0.7 3.0 3.1 2.6
Swiss Re 2.6 5.8 na 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 4.4 5.1 na 5.0 112.9 0.5 3.8 2.2 2.3
ACIMA Private Wealth 2.5 4.5 L 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.0 L 2.0 L 1.8 L 1.9 L 3.5 L 5.0 0.8 L 4.3 117.0 -2.0 L 1.0 L 0.8 L 1.8
Moody's Analytics 2.5 5.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.7 5.8 3.9 5.2 na 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.2
Regions Financial Corporation 2.5 5.7 2.0 L 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.7 5.5 4.0 5.5 114.8 2.2 3.1 3.6 3.4
Societe Generale 2.5 5.7 2.5 na 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 na na na na na 1.3 3.0 3.5 3.2
Georgia State University 2.4 5.5 na na 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.8 5.1 6.1 na 5.6 na 1.6 3.3 3.5 2.5
GLC Financial Economics 2.4 5.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.6 5.7 3.9 5.4 111.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.2
Mizuho Research Institute 2.4 na na na na na na na na 2.9 na na na na na na na na na na
Thru the Cycle 2.4 5.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 4.1 4.8 L 3.8 4.7 116.4 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.2
S&P Global Ratings 2.1 L 5.2 2.1 na 2.1 2.1 L 2.2 L 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 na na na 4.7 na 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.6
June Consensus 2.8 5.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.8 5.7 4.1 5.6 114.0 1.8 3.1 3.0 2.8
Top 10 Avg. 3.2 6.3 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 5.4 6.3 4.8 6.3 116.2 2.7 4.1 4.0 3.7
Bottom 10 Avg. 2.4 5.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 4.2 5.2 3.4 4.9 111.9 0.8 2.1 2.0 2.0
May Consensus 2.6 5.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.6 5.5 4.0 5.3 111.5 2.3 3.0 3.0 2.8
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 2 3 3 2 4 5 3 5 6 6 5 2 3 2 5 2 27 6 10 11
Same 12 9 7 7 9 7 8 11 8 12 8 6 4 4 5 1 7 13 15 12
Up 26 22 17 13 20 19 21 21 22 20 23 16 16 12 20 16 5 17 13 13
Diffusion Index 80%78%76%75%74%73%78%72%72%68%75%79%78%78%75%87%22%65%54%53%
Key Assumptions
SOFR
First Quarter 2023
Interest Rate Forecasts
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------
Fgn Econ
$ Index
Avg. For
---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv

8  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  JUNE 1, 2022
---------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter---------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
TS Lombard 4.5 H 7.6 H 4.4 H 4.5 H 4.5 H 4.5 H 4.4 4.3 4.7 3.8 3.9 4.7 5.5 3.8 5.6 120.0 H -0.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Nomura Securities, Inc.3.9 7.0 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 0.6 2.1 2.7 2.1
Wells Fargo 3.6 6.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.8 5.6 4.1 5.3 na 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.5 L
Loomis, Sayles & Company 3.5 6.7 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.6 5.5 4.5 5.3 114.6 2.1 3.3 3.1 2.9
Bank of America 3.4 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 1.0 4.6 H 2.8 2.6
Chan Economics 3.4 6.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.6 H 5.2 H 5.3 H 5.4 H 5.5 H 6.3 7.1 6.2 H 7.6 H 114.4 2.0 3.5 4.0 3.9 H
Daiwa Capital Markets America 3.4 6.6 2.6 2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 6.4 7.5 H na 7.1 116.0 0.8 3.2 3.3 3.0
Amherst Pierpont Securities 3.3 6.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 5.2 6.2 4.3 6.2 115.5 2.7 3.6 3.3 2.9
J.P. Morgan Chase 3.3 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 1.3 2.2 2.7 2.4
Fannie Mae 3.2 6.3 na na 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 na na na 4.8 na 0.7 2.8 2.3 2.1
PNC Financial Services Corp.3.2 6.3 3.1 na 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 na 5.1 3.5 5.2 108.4 L 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.0
BNP Paribas Americas 3.1 na na na na na na 2.7 na 2.7 2.8 na na na na na 1.4 na 2.0 na
Chmura Economics & Analytics 3.1 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.9 na na 5.8 109.0 1.8 4.5 5.3 H 3.5
Economist Intelligence Unit 3.1 6.3 na 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 na na na 5.6 na 1.2 na 2.8 na
Goldman Sachs & Co.3.1 na na na 3.0 na na 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 na na na na na 1.5 3.0 2.9 2.7
Grant Thornton/Diane Swonk 3.1 6.2 3.0 1.5 L 1.5 L 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.7 5.4 na 6.2 na 1.0 2.5 1.5 1.8
ING 3.1 na 3.2 na na na na 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 na na na na na 1.5 na na na
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 3.1 6.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.4 6.7 H 7.4 5.8 6.9 116.3 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0
NatWest Markets 3.1 6.1 na 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 4.3 5.3 3.4 4.2 na 1.9 4.0 2.0 3.3
Oxford Economics 3.1 6.2 3.0 na 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.9 na na 5.6 109.5 1.4 2.2 1.4 1.6
S&P Global Market Intelligence 3.1 6.3 3.1 na 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 na na na 5.2 na 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.8
Bank of the West 3.0 6.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 5.1 6.0 4.9 5.9 115.5 1.5 2.7 3.2 3.0
Scotiabank Group 3.0 6.0 2.8 na 2.8 na 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 na na na na na na 2.5 3.4 4.5 3.6
Via Nova Investment Mgt.3.0 6.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 6.3 6.9 5.9 7.2 112.0 2.3 3.8 2.8 2.5
Barclays 2.9 6.0 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.7
BMO Capital Markets 2.9 6.0 2.9 na 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 na na na 5.5 112.9 1.5 2.9 3.3 3.2
Comerica Bank 2.9 6.0 na na 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.0 4.0 5.0 na 5.0 na 1.2 3.3 3.1 3.4
DePrince & Assoc.2.9 6.1 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 5.1 5.8 4.3 5.7 114.9 2.2 3.1 3.3 3.0
Mizuho Research Institute 2.9 na na na na na na na na 3.0 na na na na na na na na na na
Swiss Re 2.9 6.0 na 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.1 4.5 5.2 na 4.9 111.8 0.2 3.8 2.9 2.5
The Northern Trust Company 2.9 6.0 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.9 5.1 5.4 109.0 2.2 3.0 2.6 2.6
GLC Financial Economics 2.7 5.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.9 6.0 4.0 5.5 111.0 3.0 H 3.0 3.0 2.6
Moody's Analytics 2.7 5.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.7 5.8 3.9 5.2 na 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1
Action Economics 2.6 5.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 4.1 5.1 3.0 5.6 115.8 2.7 2.0 2.5 2.3
Regions Financial Corporation 2.6 5.8 2.2 L 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.3 4.8 5.6 4.1 5.4 114.3 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.8
ACIMA Private Wealth 2.5 4.5 L 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.1 L 2.0 L 2.0 L 1.9 L 1.9 L 2.0 L 3.2 L 4.7 L 0.9 L 4.1 L 115.0 -2.0 L -1.5 L -1.0 L 1.5 L
Georgia State University 2.5 5.7 na na 2.4 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.0 5.2 6.3 na 5.7 na 2.0 3.2 3.1 2.6
Societe Generale 2.5 5.7 2.5 na 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 na na na na na 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.6
S&P Global Ratings 2.4 L 5.6 2.4 na 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 na na na 4.9 na 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.9
Thru the Cycle 2.4 L 5.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 4.1 4.8 3.8 4.7 116.5 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.0
June Consensus 3.0 6.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.9 5.8 4.2 5.6 113.6 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.6
Top 10 Avg. 3.6 6.6 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.6 6.5 4.9 6.4 116.0 2.5 3.8 3.7 3.3
Bottom 10 Avg. 2.6 5.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 4.2 5.2 3.5 4.8 111.2 0.4 1.8 1.4 1.8
May Consensus 2.9 5.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.7 5.6 4.1 5.4 111.2 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.6
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 3 3 5 3 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 1 2 2 6 2 24 7 11 8
Same 14 9 6 6 9 8 8 10 9 12 8 8 6 5 5 1 9 13 14 17
Up 23 22 16 13 19 18 19 19 20 19 21 15 15 11 19 16 6 16 13 11
Diffusion Index 75%78%70%73%71%71%72%69%72%69%74%79%78%75%72%87%27%63%53%54%
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------
Second Quarter 2023
Interest Rate Forecasts Key Assumptions
1
Federal
Funds
Prime SOFR
$ Index
Avg. For
---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv
Fgn Econ

JUNE 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  9

------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
Daiwa Capital Markets America 3.9 H 7.1 H 3.0 3.1 4.1 H 4.3 H 4.6 H 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 6.8 H 7.9 H na 7.4 115.0 0.8 3.0 3.1 2.9
Nomura Securities, Inc.3.9 H 7.0 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 0.5 2.2 2.9 2.2
Amherst Pierpont Securities 3.8 6.9 3.7 H 3.8 H 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 5.3 6.3 4.5 6.3 115.5 2.6 3.4 3.3 2.9
Wells Fargo 3.8 6.8 3.7 H 3.8 H 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 4.7 5.5 4.0 5.2 na 1.4 2.3 1.6 2.2
Loomis, Sayles & Company 3.6 6.8 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 4.5 5.5 4.4 5.2 114.6 1.8 3.2 3.0 2.8
TS Lombard 3.6 6.7 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.9 4.7 3.0 4.8 115.0 -1.5 L 3.0 3.0 3.0
Bank of America 3.4 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 0.7 4.8 H 3.1 2.8
Chan Economics 3.4 6.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.6 H 5.2 H 5.3 H 5.4 H 5.5 H 6.3 7.1 6.2 H 7.6 H 114.0 1.8 3.0 3.5 3.4 H
Fannie Mae 3.4 6.5 na na 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 na na na 4.7 na -0.5 2.8 2.0 2.0
Grant Thornton/Diane Swonk 3.4 6.5 3.3 1.8 L 1.8 L 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.8 5.5 na 6.0 na 1.0 2.5 1.7 1.7
PNC Financial Services Corp.3.4 6.5 3.4 na 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 na 5.1 3.6 5.1 108.1 0.9 2.0 2.1 2.0
J.P. Morgan Chase 3.3 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 1.0 2.3 2.7 2.4
Bank of the West 3.2 6.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 5.2 6.1 4.9 5.9 115.7 1.4 2.5 2.9 2.7
Oxford Economics 3.2 6.3 3.1 na 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.9 na na 5.5 108.7 1.7 2.3 1.6 1.6
BNP Paribas Americas 3.1 na na na na na na 2.7 na 2.6 2.8 na na na na na 1.8 na 2.4 na
Chmura Economics & Analytics 3.1 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.9 na na 5.7 108.1 1.7 4.2 4.7 H 3.3
Economist Intelligence Unit 3.1 6.3 na 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 na na na 5.6 na 1.1 na 2.0 na
Goldman Sachs & Co.3.1 na na na 3.2 na na 2.3 2.4 3.2 2.4 na na na na na 1.5 2.6 2.7 2.4
ING 3.1 na 3.1 na na na na 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.7 na na na na na 1.7 na na na
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 3.1 6.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.4 6.8 H 7.6 5.9 7.0 116.5 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.9
NatWest Markets 3.1 6.1 na 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 4.3 5.3 3.4 4.2 na 1.6 3.8 1.4 L 3.1
S&P Global Market Intelligence 3.1 6.3 3.1 na 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 na na na 5.1 na 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.8
Scotiabank Group 3.0 6.0 2.8 na 2.8 na 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 na na na na na na 2.0 1.1 L 2.4 2.2
Via Nova Investment Mgt.3.0 6.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 6.3 6.9 5.9 7.2 110.0 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.5
Barclays 2.9 6.0 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 1.5 2.4 2.1 2.1
BMO Capital Markets 2.9 6.0 2.9 na 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 na na na 5.4 112.5 1.6 2.5 2.9 2.8
Comerica Bank 2.9 6.0 na na 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.9 4.9 na 4.6 na 1.1 3.0 2.9 3.0
DePrince & Assoc.2.9 6.0 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.0 5.2 5.9 4.3 5.7 115.0 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.8
GLC Financial Economics 2.9 6.0 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 5.2 6.3 4.3 5.8 110.7 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.9
Mizuho Research Institute 2.9 na na na na na na na na 3.0 na na na na na na na na na na
Swiss Re 2.9 6.1 na 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.1 4.5 5.3 na 4.8 110.8 0.2 4.3 4.3 3.3
The Northern Trust Company 2.9 6.0 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.9 5.1 5.4 108.0 L 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.5
Moody's Analytics 2.8 5.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.7 5.8 3.9 5.2 na 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9
Action Economics 2.6 5.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 4.2 5.2 3.0 5.6 115.8 na na na na
Georgia State University 2.6 5.8 na na 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.9 4.0 5.2 6.4 na 5.8 na 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.5
Regions Financial Corporation 2.6 5.8 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.2 4.8 5.7 4.1 5.4 113.6 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.3
S&P Global Ratings 2.6 5.7 2.6 na 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 na na na 5.0 na 1.7 2.5 2.1 2.0
Societe Generale 2.5 5.7 2.5 na 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 na na na na na 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.6
Thru the Cycle 2.4 5.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 4.1 4.8 3.7 4.6 117.5 H 1.8 2.5 2.1 2.5
ACIMA Private Wealth 2.0 L 4.5 L 2.0 L 2.1 2.1 1.9 L 1.7 L 1.6 L 1.8 L 1.9 L 2.0 L 2.9 L 4.3 L 0.9 L 4.0 L 112.0 5.5 H 1.9 1.5 1.4 L
June Consensus 3.1 6.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.9 5.8 4.2 5.5 112.9 1.6 2.7 2.6 2.5
Top 10 Avg. 3.6 6.7 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 5.7 6.6 5.0 6.5 115.5 2.7 3.6 3.4 3.1
Bottom 10 Avg. 2.6 5.7 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 4.1 5.1 3.4 4.7 110.3 0.4 2.1 1.8 1.8
May Consensus 3.0 6.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.8 5.7 4.1 5.4 110.9 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.4
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 3 3 7 4 7 7 8 9 7 6 5 3 3 3 6 2 21 5 12 7
Same 17 12 6 6 10 10 8 9 10 12 9 8 6 5 5 1 10 15 14 17
Up 20 19 14 12 16 14 16 17 17 18 20 13 14 10 19 16 7 15 11 11
Diffusion Index 71%74%63%68%64%61%63%61%65%67%72%71%74%69%72%87%32%64%49%56%
Key Assumptions
SOFR
Third Quarter 2023
Interest Rate Forecasts
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------
Fgn Econ
$ Index
Avg. For
---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv

10  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  JUNE 1, 2022
International Interest Rate And Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts
United States
Fed Fund Target Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %Fed's AFE $ IndexBlue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 2.13 2.63 --2.85 2.75 --------
BMO Capital Markets 1.88 2.38 2.88 3.05 3.10 3.20 114.3 113.8 112.9
ING Financial Markets 1.88 2.88 3.13 3.25 3.00 2.50 114.6 112.3 109.7
Mizuho Research Institute 1.88 1.88 2.88 2.75 2.85 2.95 ------
Moody's Analytics 0.80 1.62 2.55 2.96 3.05 3.19 ------
Northern Trust 1.88 2.38 2.88 3.20 3.40 3.50 112.0 111.0 110.0Oxford Economics 1.88 2.38 3.13 3.15 3.23 3.20 112.9 111.8 109.5S&P Global Market Intelligence ------2.96 2.97 3.07 ------Scotiabank 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.20 ------TS Lombard 2.00 2.63 4.50 3.50 3.50 3.80 116.0 118.0 120.0Wells Fargo 2.00 2.75 3.75 3.20 3.35 3.25 ------
June Consensus 1.88 2.45 3.19 3.08 3.12 3.19 114.0 113.4 112.4
High 2.50 3.00 4.50 3.50 3.50 3.80 116.0 118.0 120.0
Low 0.80 1.62 2.55 2.75 2.75 2.50 112.0 111.0 109.5
Last Months Avg.1.49 2.03 2.88 2.80 2.89 2.99 109.8 109.2 108.0
Japan
Policy-Rate Balance Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %Yen per US$Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.Barclays -0.10 -0.10 --0.40 0.40 --118.0 116.0 --
BMO Capital Markets -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.25 0.25 0.30 131.0 132.0 131.0
ING Financial Markets -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.20 0.20 0.20 130.0 128.0 126.0
Mizuho Research Institute -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.25 0.25 0.25 126.0 127.0 127.0
Moody's Analytics -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.24 0.23 0.20 126.5 124.5 120.9
Nomura Securities ------------123.0 120.0 118.0
Northern Trust -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.25 0.25 0.25 126.0 124.0 123.0
Oxford Economics -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 0.21 0.18 0.08 126.2 124.1 118.5
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------134.6 135.2 132.2
Scotiabank -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 ------130.0 125.0 120.0TS Lombard -0.10 0.20 0.50 0.25 0.35 0.45 125.0 120.0 110.0Wells Fargo -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.25 0.25 0.25 ------
June Consensus -0.09 -0.06 -0.03 0.26 0.26 0.25 126.9 125.1 122.7
High -0.03 0.20 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.45 134.6 135.2 132.2Low-0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.20 0.18 0.08 118.0 116.0 110.0Last Months Avg.-0.09 -0.06 -0.03 0.24 0.24 0.24 124.3 124.2 122.2
United Kingdom
Official Bank Rate 10 Yr. Gilt Yields %US$ per Pound SterlingBlue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.Barclays 1.25 1.50 --1.90 1.90 --1.35 1.39 --BMO Capital Markets 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.25 2.60 2.70 1.24 1.25 1.26ING Financial Markets 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.24 1.26 1.29
Moody's Analytics 0.91 1.16 1.50 1.95 2.14 2.44 1.28 1.31 1.41
Nomura Securities ------------1.31 1.34 1.45
Northern Trust 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.95 2.05 2.15 1.25 1.26 1.27
Oxford Economics 1.42 1.50 1.50 1.88 1.94 2.03 1.26 1.28 1.32
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------1.21 1.21 1.23
Scotiabank 1.25 1.25 1.50 ------1.24 1.25 1.27
TS Lombard 1.00 1.63 3.50 1.50 3.10 3.40 1.22 1.15 1.10
Wells Fargo 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.95 2.00 2.05 ------
June Consensus 1.26 1.45 1.84 1.91 2.19 2.35 1.26 1.27 1.29
High 1.50 1.75 3.50 2.25 3.10 3.40 1.35 1.39 1.45Low0.91 1.16 1.25 1.50 1.80 1.70 1.21 1.15 1.10Last Months Avg.1.05 1.27 1.58 1.80 2.08 2.22 1.30 1.30 1.31
Switzerland
SNB Policy Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %CHF per US$Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.Barclays -0.75 -0.75 --------0.94 0.92 --ING Financial Markets -0.50 -0.25 0.00 1.05 1.05 0.95 1.00 1.00 0.99Moody's Analytics -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 0.90 1.07 1.35 0.96 0.93 0.84Nomura Securities ------------0.94 0.92 0.92Northern Trust -0.75 -0.50 0.25 0.75 0.80 0.90 0.95 0.93 0.92Oxford Economics -0.63 -0.38 -0.13 0.92 0.96 1.04 0.97 0.95 0.94S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------0.99 0.98 0.97
Scotiabank ------------0.97 0.95 0.96
TS Lombard -0.75 -0.75 -0.25 0.67 1.19 1.49 0.92 0.92 0.92
June Consensus -0.69 -0.56 -0.18 0.86 1.01 1.15 0.96 0.94 0.93
High -0.50 -0.25 0.25 1.05 1.19 1.49 1.00 1.00 0.99
Low -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.84
Last Months Avg.-0.75 -0.75 -0.53 0.63 0.73 0.89 0.93 0.93 0.92
Canada
O/N MMkt Financing Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %C$ per US$Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 2.00 2.50 --------1.24 1.23 --
BMO Capital Markets 2.00 2.25 2.75 3.05 3.10 3.15 1.26 1.24 1.24
ING Financial Markets 2.50 3.00 3.50 3.25 3.40 3.00 1.24 1.22 1.21
Moody's Analytics 1.13 1.78 2.50 2.87 3.01 3.27 1.27 1.25 1.22
Nomura Securities ------------1.26 1.26 1.25
Northern Trust 2.00 2.50 3.00 2.95 3.10 3.25 1.27 1.26 1.25Oxford Economics 1.63 1.75 2.00 3.05 3.12 3.14 1.28 1.29 1.30S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------1.21 1.21 1.22Scotiabank2.50 3.00 3.00 2.95 3.10 3.20 1.20 1.20 1.22TS Lombard 2.25 2.88 4.75 3.60 3.60 3.90 1.26 1.26 1.26Wells Fargo ------3.20 3.25 3.30 ------
June Consensus 2.00 2.46 3.07 3.12 3.21 3.28 1.25 1.24 1.24
High 2.50 3.00 4.75 3.60 3.60 3.90 1.28 1.29 1.30
Low 1.13 1.75 2.00 2.87 3.01 3.00 1.20 1.20 1.21
Last Months Avg.1.49 2.02 2.61 2.72 2.85 2.94 1.25 1.24 1.24
JUNE 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  11

Australia
Official Cash Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %US$ per A$Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 1.50 1.75 --------0.74 0.76 --
ING Financial Markets 1.10 1.60 2.50 3.80 4.00 3.80 0.70 0.72 0.74
Moody's Analytics 0.43 0.75 1.50 2.99 2.93 3.39 0.72 0.71 0.72
Nomura Securities ------------0.73 0.74 0.75
Northern Trust 1.25 1.50 2.00 3.35 3.45 3.55 0.71 0.70 0.69
Oxford Economics 0.85 1.23 1.73 3.38 3.41 3.39 0.73 0.73 0.75
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------0.71 0.71 0.66
Scotiabank 0.50 0.75 1.50 ------0.72 0.74 0.74
TS Lombard 0.10 0.35 0.65 2.84 3.85 4.15 0.75 0.70 0.65
June Consensus 0.82 1.13 1.65 3.27 3.53 3.66 0.72 0.72 0.71High1.50 1.75 2.50 3.80 4.00 4.15 0.75 0.76 0.75
Low 0.10 0.35 0.65 2.84 2.93 3.39 0.70 0.70 0.65
Last Months Avg.0.18 0.52 1.03 2.86 3.11 3.30 0.74 0.74 0.73
Euro area
Main Refinancing Rate US$ per EuroBlue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 0.25 0.50 --1.12 1.15 --
BMO Capital Markets 0.00 0.25 0.75 1.06 1.06 1.08
ING Financial Markets 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.05 1.08 1.12
Mizuho Research Institute 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.08 1.10 1.10
Moody's Analytics 0.00 0.06 0.56 1.07 1.08 1.17
Nomura Securities ------1.10 1.14 1.20
Northern Trust 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.08 1.09 1.10Oxford Economics 0.06 0.31 0.50 1.07 1.09 1.12
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------1.06 1.07 1.08
Scotiabank 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.08 1.10 1.10
TS Lombard 0.00 0.25 0.50 1.00 0.85 1.00
Wells Fargo -0.25 0.00 0.50 ------
June Consensus 0.06 0.21 0.48 1.07 1.07 1.11
High 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.12 1.15 1.20
Low -0.25 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.85 1.00
Last Months Avg.-0.06 0.01 0.27 1.08 1.07 1.11
Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 1.25 1.30 --------------------
BMO Capital Markets 1.15 1.30 1.45 ------------------
ING Financial Markets 1.20 1.20 1.10 1.65 1.60 1.40 2.95 2.70 2.10 1.80 1.80 1.70
Mizuho Research Institute 0.73 0.78 0.78 ------------------
Moody's Analytics 1.02 1.20 1.51 1.52 1.65 1.86 2.88 3.04 3.04 1.93 2.24 2.48
Northern Trust 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.55 1.65 1.75 3.00 3.10 3.20 2.20 2.30 2.40
Oxford Economics 1.03 1.09 1.21 1.51 1.54 1.59 3.08 3.12 3.18 2.09 2.17 2.30
TS Lombard 1.80 1.80 2.10 2.15 2.15 2.45 3.10 3.10 3.40 2.55 2.55 2.85
Wells Fargo 1.20 1.30 1.45 ------------------
June Consensus 1.15 1.23 1.35 1.68 1.72 1.81 3.00 3.01 2.98 2.11 2.21 2.35
High 1.80 1.80 2.10 2.15 2.15 2.45 3.10 3.12 3.40 2.55 2.55 2.85
Low 0.73 0.78 0.78 1.51 1.54 1.40 2.88 2.70 2.10 1.80 1.80 1.70
Last Months Avg.0.77 0.90 1.07 1.21 1.30 1.45 2.30 2.36 2.47 1.65 1.74 1.92
Spain
International Interest Rate And Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts
10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yields %Germany France Italy

Japan -2.54 -2.83 -2.86 -2.94 Japan -0.98 -1.98 -2.39 -3.22
United Kingdom -0.88 -1.17 -0.93 -0.83 United Kingdom 0.13 -0.62 -1.00 -1.35
Switzerland -2.09 -2.23 -2.10 -2.04 Switzerland -1.63 -2.57 -3.02 -3.36
Canada 0.05 0.03 0.09 0.09 Canada 0.13 0.12 0.00 -0.12
Australia 0.53 0.19 0.41 0.47 Australia -0.53 -1.06 -1.32 -1.54
Germany -1.84 -1.93 -1.89 -1.84 Euro area -0.88 -1.83 -2.24 -2.71
France -1.31 -1.41 -1.40 -1.38
Italy 0.21 -0.08 -0.11 -0.20
Spain -0.76 -0.97 -0.91 -0.84
Current In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Consensus Forecasts Consensus Forecasts
10-year Bond Yields vs U.S. Yield Policy Rates vs U.S. Target Rate
Current In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.

12  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  JUNE 1, 2022

Special Questions:

1. How much do you expect the FFR to be increased in total:

in 2022 (incl the 75bps increase so far)? 244 bps

in 2023? 55 bps

2. a. What do you think is the neutral (long-run) Fed funds rate? 2.45%

b. When do you think the neutral FFR will be achieved?

by the end 2022 by the end 2023 by the end 2024 by the end 2025 Later
62%24%14%0%0%

3. a. Do you think that by removing monetary accommodation the US Fed will be successful in slowing inflation without precipitating
a recession?

Yes No
72%28%

b. What probability do you attach to a US recession beginning in 2022? In 2023?

2022 2023
Consensus 25%38%
Top 10 40%57%
Bot 10 11%23%

4. In your view, which of the following factors poses the biggest risk to global financial stability at present:

A much more aggressive response from Central Banks to persistently high levels of inflation 44%
A further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine accompanied by even higher energy and food prices 19%
The discovery of another dangerous mutation of the COVID virus that is both more transmissible and more immune to existing vaccines 6%
More intense financial instability in emerging economies triggered by e.g. a sovereign debt default in Russia 3%
Growing alarm on outlook for global growth triggered by eg higher food+energy prices/ebbing purch power/tighter global fiscal policies 28%

JUNE 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  13

Viewpoints:

Beauty walks a razor's edge

The global economy continues to display impressive resilience in
the face of large drags. This week’s data releases from the US
suggest that surging inflation is not derailing consumers, whose
spending is expanding at a faster than 3%ar pace in the first two
quarters of the year in response to boomy labor income gains and
falling saving rates. In Europe, a modest rebound in activity is
underway despite surging energy prices and concerns around the
Russian war in Ukraine. On balance, the DM looks to be sustain-
ing solid growth into May according to this week’s flash PMIs.
Together, DM demand gains are promoting resiliency across
Asia in the face of a sharp downturn in China.

Although the global economy (outside China) is passing its 1H22
resilience test with flying colors, the anticipated reward for this
achievement (a return to above-potential growth in 2H22) can no
longer be forecasted confidently. The headwinds holding back
growth are not fading as anticipated. Although April inflation
delivered a much-needed moderation from the spike in March,
global consumer prices still posted a large 0.6% gain last month.
Moreover, near-term moderation looks less likely as energy pric-
es have jumped over the past six weeks amid supply concerns
related to a European embargo on Russian oil, the souring of
chances for a deal with Iran, and the lack of a supply response
from OPEC and US producers. At the same time, refining bottle-
necks are boosting gasoline and diesel margins. In the US, the
risk of $6/gallon gasoline poses yet another potential body-blow
to the US consumer.

Alongside the continued purchasing power squeeze, China’s
COVID drag is proving to be deeper and more persistent. We
revised down current-quarter GDP growth dramatically this week
to -5.4%ar and look for only a partial rebound in 2H22 given the
government’s continued adherence to its zero-COVID policy.
The risks of a meaningful negative spillover to growth elsewhere
are increasing. We estimate that the China shock could shave
0.6% off the level of GDP outside China. Finally, the additional
tightening in US financial conditions over the past month has
been a surprise, and there are now clear signs that this will pro-
duce a contraction in residential investment.

Recession risks remain low as a result of the health of the private
sector that has delivered 1H22 resiliency. Next week’s US labor
market report should support this point; we expect jobs to rise
375k. But this week’s US data also highlight the cost of this re-
silience to the underlying fundamentals. Corporate profits are
reported to have contracted last quarter as pricing power did not
keep pace with surging labor costs and a tumble in productivity.

Meanwhile, 1H22 headwinds have driven the US saving rate to
4.4% in April (nearly 3%-pts below its pre-pandemic level). Sav-
ing rates are falling elsewhere across the DM. Excess saving
remains considerable—as much as 10%-12% of household in-
come. However, with saving rates now below pre-pandemic
norms and wealth declining in response to equity and housing
market cooling, it is unclear how much further households will
be willing to reduce saving rates if inflation does not moderate as
much as we anticipate. These risks are underscored by the sharp
drop in confidence of late suggesting household patience is run-
ning thin.

Policy tensions and offsets. In addition to the tension between
resiliency and drags, there is a building tension in macro policy
setting. Fiscal authorities are responding to high inflation with
additional stimulus. This week, the UK announced new measures
to support growth. Combining this with actions expected in Chi-
na, we have added 0.7% to our global fiscal thrust estimate in
recent months. However, rising fiscal supports contrast with the
sharp tightening forecasted for central banks. This week’s
minutes from the recent Fed meeting reinforced the message of
continued 50bp hikes at the coming meetings. Next week, we
expect the BoC to follow with a 50bp hike for the second meet-
ing in a row and we expect a third 50bp increase in July. Deputy
Governor Gravelle noted recently “we are taking actions to nor-
malize our policy rate quickly and are prepared to be as forceful
as needed.” Similarly, we added a 50bp rate hike to our Riks-
bank forecast reflecting signals of higher and more broad-based
underlying price pressure as well as elevated inflation expecta-
tions. Overall, our global policy rate forecast for end 2022 is up
nearly 100bp since the start of the year.
However, it is important to note that central banks are not im-
mune to growth risks. Although they are on the march, a part of
our call for global resilience incorporates a judgment that DM
central banks stay committed to sustaining the expansion. We see
them being sensitive to signs of slowing growth—underscored by
our forecast that the Fed returns to a 25bp tightening pace as US
growth slows to 2%ar by 4Q22. A counterpoint to this call for
sensitivity, however, came this week from a hawkish RBNZ that
boosted its terminal rate forecast to nearly 4% (well above neu-
tral) despite already-weaker activity and housing data.
Risks to rebound from China slump. A deeper slowdown in
April activity has led us to revise down forecasts of current-
quarter growth in China to -5.4%q/q, saar (1.5%oya and full-year
growth to 3.7%yoy). Despite the downgrade, our GDP Now-
caster is tracking a contraction of 10.1%ar this quarter. New
COVID infections are moderating and this should set up a strong
bounce back starting in May and June as the economy reopens.
The high-frequency indicators show modest improvement in pas-
senger and freight flows in May, though economic activity was
still weak. The PMI readings to be released next week will pro-
vide the first signal of whether the Omicron drag has started to
fade. We expect May activity will be only marginally better than
April’s, and a more meaningful recovery will take place in June.
Hence, we look for next week’s NBS manufacturing PMI to im-
prove to 48.5, compared to 47.4 in May. However, risks are
skewed to the downside as improvement could be short-circuited
by a resurgence in cases as the economy reopens. Importantly,
policy continues to ramp up. This week, the State Council an-
nounced policy measures to support growth, adding as much as
another 1.5%-pts to annual fiscal thrust. However, the actual
impact could be more muted given the countervailing policies
around zero-COVID.

JP Morgan Economic and Policy Research (May 27, 2022)
A Sampling of Views on the Economy, Financial Markets and Government Policy
Excerpted from Recent Reports Issued by our Blue Chip Panel Members and Others

14  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  JUNE 1, 2022

Long-Range Survey:
The table below contains the results of our twice-annual long-range CONSENSUS survey. There are also Top 10 and Bottom 10 averages for each
variable. Shown are consensus estimates for the years 2023 through 2028 and averages for the five-year periods 2024-2028 and 2029-2033. Apply
these projections cautiously. Few if any economic, demographic and political forces can be evaluated accurately over such long time spans.

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2024-2028 2029-2033
1. Federal Funds Rate CONSENSUS 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5
Top 10 Average 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8
Bottom 10 Average 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1
2. Prime Rate CONSENSUS 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6
Top 10 Average 6.6 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9
Bottom 10 Average 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2
3. SOFR CONSENSUS 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5
Top 10 Average 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8
Bottom 10 Average 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1
4. Commercial Paper, 1-Mo CONSENSUS 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6
Top 10 Average 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9
Bottom 10 Average 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
5. Treasury Bill Yield, 3-Mo CONSENSUS 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5
Top 10 Average 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.9
Bottom 10 Average 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2
6. Treasury Bill Yield, 6-Mo CONSENSUS 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6
Top 10 Average 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.0
Bottom 10 Average 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
7. Treasury Bill Yield, 1-Yr CONSENSUS 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8
Top 10 Average 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.2
Bottom 10 Average 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4
8. Treasury Note Yield, 2-Yr CONSENSUS 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0
Top 10 Average 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5
Bottom 10 Average 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5
9. Treasury Note Yield, 5-Yr CONSENSUS 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
Top 10 Average 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8
Bottom 10 Average 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8
10. Treasury Note Yield, 10-Yr CONSENSUS 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5
Top 10 Average 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1
Bottom 10 Average 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8
11. Treasury Bond Yield, 30-Yr CONSENSUS 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9
Top 10 Average 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5
Bottom 10 Average 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2
12. Corporate Aaa Bond Yield CONSENSUS 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0
Top 10 Average 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6
Bottom 10 Average 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4
13. Corporate Baa Bond Yield CONSENSUS 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
Top 10 Average 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4
Bottom 10 Average 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4
14. State & Local Bonds Yield CONSENSUS 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
Top 10 Average 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8
Bottom 10 Average 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9
15. Home Mortgage Rate CONSENSUS 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Top 10 Average 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0
Bottom 10 Average 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8
A. Fed's AFE Nominal $ Index CONSENSUS 113.8 112.8 111.9 111.0 110.6 110.4 111.3 109.8
Top 10 Average 115.6 114.7 114.0 113.4 113.1 112.8 113.6 112.7
Bottom 10 Average 112.2 111.0 109.9 108.8 108.2 107.9 109.2 107.4
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2024-2028 2029-2033
B. Real GDP CONSENSUS 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0
Top 10 Average 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3
Bottom 10 Average 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8
C. GDP Chained Price Index CONSENSUS 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2
Top 10 Average 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6
Bottom 10 Average 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
D. Consumer Price Index CONSENSUS 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3
Top 10 Average 4.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7
Bottom 10 Average 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
E. PCE Price Index CONSENSUS 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3
Top 10 Average 3.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7
Bottom 10 Average 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9
Five-Year Averages
Five-Year Averages---------------------- Year-Over-Year, % Change ----------------------
------------------------- Average For The Year -------------------------

JUNE 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  15
Databank:
2022 Historical Data
Monthly Indicator Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Retail and Food Service Sales (a) 2.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Auto & Light Truck Sales (b) 15.05 13.98 13.41 14.28 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Personal Income (a, current $) 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Personal Consumption (a, current $) 2.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Consumer Credit (e) 4.6 10.2 14.0 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Consumer Sentiment (U. of Mich.) 67.2 62.8 59.4 65.2 58.4 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Household Employment (c) 1199 548 736 -353 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (c) 504 714 428 428 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Average Hourly Earnings (All, cur. $) 31.56 31.60 31.75 31.85 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Average Workweek (All, hrs.) 34.6 34.7 34.6 34.6 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Industrial Production (d) 3.2 7.5 5.4 6.4 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.9 77.6 78.2 79.0 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
ISM Manufacturing Index (g) 57.6 58.6 57.1 55.4 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index (g) 59.9 56.5 58.3 57.1 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Housing Starts (b) 1.666 1.777 1.728 1.724 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Housing Permits (b) 1.841 1.857 1.879 1.823 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
New Home Sales (1-family, c) 831 792 709 591 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Construction Expenditures (a) 3.0 0.5 0.1 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Consumer Price Index (nsa, d) 7.5 7.9 8.5 8.3 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
CPI ex. Food and Energy (nsa, d) 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.2 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
PCE Chain Price Index (d) 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.3 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Core PCE Chain Price Index (d) 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Producer Price Index (nsa, d) 10.1 10.4 11.5 11.0 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Durable Goods Orders (a) 3.1 -0.7 0.6 0.4 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Leading Economic Indicators (a) -0.6 0.7 0.1 -0.3 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Balance of Trade & Services (f) -89.2 -89.8 -109.8 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
Federal Funds Rate (%) 0.08 0.08 0.20 0.33 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
3-Mo. Treasury Bill Rate (%) 0.15 0.31 0.45 0.76 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 1.76 1.93 2.13 2.75 ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ···· ····
2021 Historical Data
Monthly Indicator Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Retail and Food Service Sales (a) 5.5 -1.8 11.2 0.1 -1.0 1.1 -1.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 0.6 -1.6
Auto & Light Truck Sales (b) 16.78 15.93 17.64 18.30 16.89 15.47 14.66 13.09 12.29 13.05 13.04 12.54
Personal Income (a, current $) 9.9 -7.2 21.0 -13.3 -2.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 -0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5
Personal Consumption (a, current $) 3.3 -1.1 5.2 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.6 1.4 0.5 -0.9
Consumer Credit (e) 2.4 5.4 4.6 5.4 7.6 6.6 4.5 5.1 6.6 5.8 8.8 6.3
Consumer Sentiment (U. of Mich.) 79.0 76.8 84.9 88.3 82.9 85.5 81.2 70.3 72.8 71.7 67.4 70.6
Household Employment (c) 121 363 573 319 291 62 1092 463 639 428 1090 651
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (c) 520 710 704 263 447 557 689 517 424 677 647 588
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.9
Average Hourly Earnings (All, cur. $) 29.93 30.04 30.06 30.20 30.36 30.52 30.67 30.76 30.92 31.11 31.23 31.38
Average Workweek (All, hrs.) 35.0 34.6 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8
Industrial Production (d) -1.7 -4.9 1.8 17.9 16.4 10.2 6.6 5.4 4.5 4.8 5.0 3.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 75.0 72.7 74.8 74.8 75.3 75.7 76.2 76.1 75.1 76.1 76.6 76.4
ISM Manufacturing Index (g) 59.4 60.9 63.7 60.6 61.6 60.9 59.9 59.7 60.5 60.8 60.6 58.8
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index (g) 58.5 55.9 62.2 62.7 63.2 60.7 64.1 62.2 62.6 66.7 68.4 62.3
Housing Starts (b) 1.602 1.430 1.711 1.505 1.605 1.664 1.573 1.576 1.559 1.563 1.706 1.768
Housing Permits (b) 1.843 1.743 1.773 1.765 1.691 1.661 1.655 1.772 1.615 1.698 1.729 1.896
New Home Sales (1-family, c) 911 768 881 809 740 714 726 686 732 671 756 839
Construction Expenditures (a) 3.0 -1.1 1.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.6
Consumer Price Index (nsa, d) 1.4 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.8 7.0
CPI ex. Food and Energy (nsa, d) 1.4 1.3 1.6 3.0 3.8 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.5
PCE Chain Price Index (d) 1.4 1.6 2.5 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 5.1 5.6 5.8
Core PCE Chain Price Index (d) 1.5 1.5 2.0 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.9
Producer Price Index (nsa, d) 1.6 3.0 4.1 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.9 10.0
Durable Goods Orders (a) 2.5 0.1 1.6 -2.0 2.1 1.8 0.4 1.6 -1.5 1.5 1.4 0.9
Leading Economic Indicators (a) 0.6 -0.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4
Balance of Trade & Services (f) -65.1 -67.5 -71.4 -65.4 -67.3 -72.2 -69.7 -72.5 -81.2 -66.9 -80.1 -82.0
Federal Funds Rate (%) 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
3-Mo. Treasury Bill Rate (%) 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06
10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 1.08 1.26 1.61 1.64 1.62 1.52 1.32 1.28 1.37 1.58 1.56 1.47
(a) month-over-month % change; (b) millions, saar; (c) month-over-month change, thousands; (d) year-over-year % change; (e) annualized % change; (f) $
billions; (g) level. Most series are subject to frequent government revisions. Use with care.
16  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  JUNE 1, 2022
Calendar of Upcoming Economic Data Releases

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
30

Memorial Day
All Markets Closed

31
FHFA HPI (Mar & Q1)
Case-Shiller HPI (Mar)
Chicago PMI (May)
Texas Manufacturing Outlook
Survey (May)
Consumer Confidence (May)
Agricultural Prices (May)
Retail E-Commerce Sales (Q1)

June 1
Construction (Apr)
ISM Manufacturing (May)
S&P Global Mfg PMI (May)
JOLTS (Apr)
Texas Service Sector Outlook
Survey (May)
Mortgage Applications

2
Productivity & Costs (Q1)
MSIO (Apr)
Challenger Employment Report
(May)
BEA Auto Sales (May)
BEA Truck Sales (May)
ADP Employment Report (May)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Weekly Jobless Claims

3
Employment Situation (May)
ISM Services PMI (May)
S&P Global Services PMI (May)

6
Public Debt (May)
Interest on the Public Debt (Jun)

7
Intl Trade (Apr & Revisions)
QFR (Q1)
Consumer Credit (Apr)
Treasury Auction Allotments
(May)
Kansas City Fed Labor Market
Conditions Indicators (May)

8
Wholesale Trade (Apr)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Applications
9
Financial Accounts (Q1)
Kansas City Financial Stress
Index (May)
Weekly Jobless Claims
10
CPI (May)
Real Earnings (May)
Housing Affordability (Apr)
Consumer Sentiment
(Jun, Preliminary)
QSS (Q1)
Cleveland Fed Median CPI
(May)
Monthly Treasury (May)

13

14
Producer Prices (May)
Manpower Survey (Q3)
NFIB (May)
OPEC Crude Oil Spot Prices
(May)
FOMC Meeting
15
Import & Export Prices (May)
Advance Retail Sales (May)
MTIS (Apr)
Transportation Services (Apr)
Empire State Mfg Survey (Jun)
Home Builders (Jun)
TIC Data (Apr)
FOMC Meeting
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Applications

16
New Residential Construction
(May)
ECEC (Q1)
Business Leaders Survey (Jun)
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Business
Outlook Survey (Jun)
Weekly Jobless Claims
17
IP & Capacity Utilization (May)
Livingston Survey (Jun)
Composite Indexes (May)

20

Juneteenth Observed
All Markets Closed

21
Existing Home Sales (May)
Chicago Fed National Activity
Index (May)
Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg
Business Outlook Survey (Jun)

22
Treasury Auction Allotments
(Jun)
Mortgage Applications

23
International Transactions
(Q1 & Revisions)
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing
Survey (Jun)
S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jun)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Weekly Jobless Claims
24
New Residential Sales (May)
Final Building Permits (May)
Consumer Sentiment
(Jun, Final)
Steel Imports for Consumption
(May)
27
Advance Durable Goods (May)
Texas Manufacturing Outlook
Survey (Jun)
Pending Home Sales (May)
28
IIP (Q1 & Revision)
Adv Trade & Inventories(May)
FHFA HPI (Apr)
Case-Shiller HPI (Apr)
H.6 Money Stock (Apr)
IP Revisions
Consumer Confidence (Jun)
Richmond Fed Mfg & Service
Sector Srvy (Jun)
Texas Service Sector (Jun)

29
GDP (Q1, 3rd Estimate)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Applications

30
Personal Income (May)
Dallas Fed Trimmed-Mean PCE
(May)
Chicago PMI (Jun) Agricultural Prices (May)
Weekly Jobless Claims
July 1
Construction (May)
ISM Manufacturing (Jun)
S&P Global Mfg PMI (Jun)

4

Independence Day
All Markets Closed
5
Manufacturers' Shipments,
Inventories & Orders (May)
BEA Auto Sales (Jun)
BEA Truck Sales (Jun)

6
ISM Services PMI (Jun)
S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
JOLTS (May)
Mortgage Applications
7
ADP Employment Report (Jun)
International Trade (May)
Public Debt (Jun)
Interest on the Public Debt (Jul)
Challenger Employment Report
(Jun)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Weekly Jobless Claims
8
Employment Situation (Jun)
Wholesale Trade (May)
Consumer Credit (May)

.
BLUE CHIP FORECASTERS

CONTRIBUTORS TO DOMESTIC SURVEY
ACIMA Private Wealth, Richmond, VA
Ardavan Mobasheri
Action Economics, LLC, Boulder, CO
Michael Englund
AIG, New York, NY
Henry Mo and Jerry Cai
Amherst Pierpont Securities, Stamford, CT
Stephen Stanley
Bank of America, New York, NY
Ethan Harris
Bank of the West, SF, CA
Scott Anderson
Barclays, New York, NY
Michael Gapen
BMO Capital Markets Economics, Toronto, Canada
Douglas Porter
BNP Paribas North America, New York, NY
Andrew Schneider
Chan Economics, New York, NY
Anthony Chan
Chmura Economics & Analytics, Richmond, VA
Christine Chmura and Xiaobing Shuai
Comerica, Dallas, TX
Bill Adams
Daiwa Capital Markets America, New York, NY
Michael Moran
DePrince & Associates, Murfreesburo, TN
Albert E. DePrince Jr.
Economist Intelligence Unit, New York, NY
Leo Abruzzese and Jan Friederich
Fannie Mae, Washington, DC
Douglas Duncan
Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA
Rajeev Dhawan
GLC Financial Economics, Providence, RI
Gary L. Ciminero
Goldman, Sachs & Co., New York, NY
Jan Hatzius
Grant Thornton, Chicago, IL
Diane Swonk
ING Financial Markets, London, England
James Knightley
J.P. Morgan Chase, New York, NY
Bruce Kasman
Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P., Boston, MA
Brian Horrigan
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Business School, Wayne, NJ
Parul Jain
MacroPolicy Perspectives, New York, NY
Julia Coronado and Laura Rosner
Mizuho Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
Takehiro Noguchi

Moody’s Analytics, West Chester, PA
Mark M. Zandi
Naroff Economic Advisors, Philadelphia, PA
Joel L. Naroff
NatWest Markets, Greenwich, CT
Michelle Girard and Kevin Cummins
Nomura Securities International, Inc., New York, NY
U.S. Economics
Northern Trust Company, Chicago, IL
Carl Tannenbaum
Oxford Economics, New York, NY
Gregory Daco
PNC Financial Services Group, Pittsburgh, PA
Gus Faucher
RDQ Economics, New York, NY
John Ryding and Conrad de Quadros
Regions Financial Corporation, Birmingham, AL
Richard F. Moody
Scotiabank Group, Toronto, Canada
Jean-Francois Perrault
Societe Generale, New York, NY
Stephen W. Gallagher
S&P Global Market Intelligence, St. Louis, MO
Joel Prakken & Chris Varvares
S&P Global Ratings, New York, NY
Beth Ann Bovino
Swiss Re, New York, NY
Jerome Haegeli
ThruTheCycle.com, White Plains, NY
John Lonski
TS Lombard, London, UK
Steven Blitz
Via Nova Investment Management, Fredericksburg, VA
Alan Gayle
Wells Fargo, Charlotte, NC
Jay Bryson and Mark Vitner

CONTRIBUTORS TO INTERNATIONAL SURVEY

Barclays Capital, New York, NY
BMO Capital Markets Economics, Toronto, Canada
ING Financial Markets, London, England
Mizuho Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
Moody’s Analytics, West Chester, PA
Nomura Securities International, Inc., New York, NY
Northern Trust Company, Chicago, IL
Oxford Economics, Wayne, PA
Scotiabank Group, Toronto, Canada
S&P Global Market Intelligence, St. Louis, MO
S&P Global Ratings, New York, NY
TS Lombard, London, UK
Wells Fargo, Charlotte, NC