20230119INT to Staff Attachment - Response to No. 56_Attachment 4.pdf

Blue Chip Financial Forecasts®

Top Analysts’ Forecasts Of U.S. And Foreign Interest Rates, Currency Values
And The Factors That Influence Them

Vol. 41, No. 11, November 1, 2022

Wolters Kluwer

BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS®
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Domestic Commentary – Highlights of October 26-27 Survey p. 1

Domestic Summary Table – Table of consensus forecasts of
U.S. interest rates and key economic assumptions p. 2

International Summary Table – Table of consensus forecasts of
international interest rates and foreign exchange values p. 3

International Commentary (by Andy Cates) p. 3

Individual Panel Member’s U.S. Forecasts – Of interest rates and
key assumptions for the next six quarters p. 4-9

Individual Panel Member’s International Forecasts – Of
international interest rates and foreign exchange values p. 10-11

Viewpoints – A sampling of views on the economy and government
policy excerpted from recent reports issued by our panel members p. 12-13

Special Questions – Results of special questions posed to panel
members about the economy, financial markets and government policy p. 14

Databank – Monthly historical data on many key indicators of
economic activity p. 15

Calendar – Release dates for important upcoming economic
data, FOMC meetings, etc. p. 16

List of Contributing Economists – To Domestic and International
Survey inside of back cover

.
Narrow GDP Rebound; More Rate Hikes Expected
GDP rebounded, likely temporary. The US economy re-
bounded in the third quarter of 2022 with real GDP growing
2.6% q/q saar after it had declined in each of the first two
quarters. However, the rebound may be fleeting with the
source of growth in Q3 unlikely to be maintained going for-
ward. A further, significant narrowing of the trade deficit more
than accounted for overall GDP growth in Q3 while private
domestic demand was essentially unchanged. With the Fed
expected to continue to restrain domestic demand through
higher interest rates and with the associated strong USD (and
sluggish growth abroad) slowing exports while promoting im-
ports, it is unlikely that the Q3 GDP rebound will extend into
Q4.

Indeed, the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (BCFF) panel looks
for real GDP to edge up only 0.4% in Q4 and to decline slight-
ly over the first half of 2023. It appears to attribute this to tight
monetary policy. In answering a Special Question, only 19%
of respondents think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation
without precipitating a recession (down from 33% last month)
but 97% of those who anticipate a recession think it will be
“mild” rather than “severe.” In general, respondents estimated
a 61% probability of a recession occurring sometime next
year, up from 55% last month.

Higher rates raise recession risk. This likely subpar perfor-
mance of the economy accompanied by further Fed rate hikes
is reflected in the panel’s interest rate outlook. The consensus
looks for interest rates to rise further over the next couple of
quarters, with shorter-term rates rising, led by the Fed, more
than longer-term ones, held down by weak growth and ex-
pected lower inflation. The already inverted 10-year/2-year
yield curve is expected to remain inverted over the forecast
horizon while the 10-year/3-month curve, not yet inverted, is
expected to invert this quarter and remain inverted over the
forecast period. Both imply that the panel sees a meaningful
increase in recession risk. However, the panel doesn’t look for
a particularly disruptive recession as the difference between
the yield on the Baa corporate bond and the 10-year Treasury
note (a measure of the credit spread) is expected to widen only
about 40bps by the middle of next year.

The Federal Reserve is facing a conundrum: its tightening of
monetary policy is having the desired effect of slowing domes-
tic demand but the labor market remains tight and unbalanced
by historical standards. Moreover, inflation, though slowing
slightly from lower energy prices and normalizing supply
chains, appears to be broadening. The slowdown in domestic
demand evidenced in Q3 has occurred mostly where it would
be expected given the Fed’s 300bps of rate hikes since
March—in the most interest-sensitive sectors (housing, nonres-
idential structures and consumer durables).

More rate hikes. The FOMC next meets on November 1-2. In
the Summary of Economic Projections released in late Sep-
tember, the FOMC anticipated that the fed funds rate (FFR)
would be raised to 4.375% by the end of 2022. There are only
two meetings remaining in 2022. The FFR futures market is
expecting a 75bp increase at the November meeting with an-
other 50bp increase at the mid-December meeting. The BCFF
panel agrees. The consensus expects the FFR to average
3.90% in Q4. This is consistent with a 75bp increase in No-
vember followed by a 50bp increase in December. Both the
FOMC and the BCFF panel expect further FFR increases next
year. In answering a Special Question, the panel consensus
looks for the FFR to peak at 4.71% in the first quarter of 2023,
21bps higher than last month. (The quarterly average peak is
expected in the second quarter of 2023.) Some in the market
have been hoping for a relatively quick policy pivot from the
Fed once the economy slows further. In answering a Special
Question, a slight majority (53%) of the BCFF panel expects a
FFR cut during 2023, mostly in the second half, while 47%
look for the first cut to occur after the end of next year.

Labor market still tight. Despite the sharp slowdown in de-
mand, the labor market has remained relatively tight although
there have been some recent hints of slight softening. Nonfarm
employment has risen by 3.8 million thus far in 2022. While
this is lower than the 4.8 million jobs created in the first nine
months of 2021, it is still robust given that real GDP growth in
the first three quarters of 2021 averaged 5.3% versus 0.1% in
the first three quarters of this year. Meanwhile, the unemploy-
ment rate has fallen to 3.5%, a 50-year low, and weekly unem-
ployment claims are hovering around the level averaged in the
year prior to the pandemic lockdown. Recently however, there
may have been the first signs of some softening. The August
JOLTS report showed a meaningful decline in job openings
albeit from record high levels, and the employment index in
the Markit PMI fell in the flash October release. Moreover,
while labor costs have risen sharply this year, the Q3 report for
the Employment Cost Index offered the first hint of stabiliza-
tion.

Inflation remaining troublesome. PCE price index inflation,
the measure targeted by the Fed, slowed meaningfully in Q3,
to 4.2 q/q saar from 7.3% in Q2. However, most of the slow-
down was due to lower energy prices, specifically fuel oil and
gasoline prices (prices of electricity and natural gas are con-
tinuing to rise). The rise in the PCE price index excluding en-
ergy slowed only modestly to 5.1% in Q3 from 5.4% in Q2.
Also, as noted above, inflation pressures are broadening. The
price of housing, a major component of core inflation that
tends to be inertial, increased 8.7% in Q3, the highest quarterly
reading since 1981, up sharply from 6.5% in Q2 and 3.4% in
the four quarters of 2021. And food prices continue to soar,
posting a third consecutive double-digit quarterly gain of
13.0% in Q3, though down from 15.3% in Q2. Still, the Q3
advance was the third fastest in the past forty years. For the
BCFF panel, inflation is the key for anticipating any pivot in
monetary policy; 66% of respondents think that a meaningful
and sustained slowing in inflation will be required for the Fed
to cut the FFR.

Sandy Batten (Haver Analytics, New York, NY)
2  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  NOVEMBER 1, 2022

Consensus Forecasts of U.S. Interest Rates and Key Assumptions
-------------------------------------History----------------------------------------- Consensus Forecasts-Quarterly Avg.
-------Average For Week Ending------ ----Average For Month--- Latest Qtr 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
Interest Rates Oct 21 Oct 14 Oct 7 Sep 30 Sep Aug Jul 3Q 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024
Federal Funds Rate 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 2.56 2.33 1.68 2.19 3.9 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.1
Prime Rate 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 5.73 5.50 4.85 5.36 6.9 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.1
SOFR 3.04 3.04 3.04 2.98 2.50 2.28 1.60 2.13 3.7 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0
Commercial Paper, 1-mo. 3.31 3.16 3.08 3.07 2.80 2.33 1.90 2.34 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0
Treasury bill, 3-mo. 4.05 3.74 3.46 3.37 3.22 2.72 2.30 2.75 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0
Treasury bill, 6-mo. 4.43 4.24 4.02 3.90 3.71 3.15 2.87 3.24 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.0
Treasury bill, 1 yr. 4.57 4.38 4.15 4.07 3.89 3.28 3.02 3.40 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.0
Treasury note, 2 yr. 4.51 4.38 4.18 4.20 3.86 3.25 3.04 3.38 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.7
Treasury note, 5 yr. 4.32 4.18 3.98 4.06 3.70 3.03 2.96 3.23 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6
Treasury note, 10 yr. 4.12 3.95 3.75 3.83 3.52 2.90 2.90 3.11 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6
Treasury note, 30 yr. 4.16 3.95 3.78 3.76 3.56 3.13 3.10 3.26 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
Corporate Aaa bond 5.56 5.37 5.16 5.19 4.87 4.35 4.39 4.54 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1
Corporate Baa bond 6.38 6.19 5.96 6.00 5.64 5.08 5.15 5.29 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2
State & Local bonds 4.59 4.52 4.53 4.58 4.31 3.84 3.82 3.99 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4
Home mortgage rate 6.94 6.92 6.66 6.70 6.11 5.22 5.41 5.58 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.2
----------------------------------------History------------------------------------------- Consensus Forecasts-Quarterly
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
Key Assumptions 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024
Fed’s AFE $ Index 105.1 103.4 102.9 105.0 107.0 108.4 113.7 119.0 123.2 123.2 122.0 120.4 119.6 118.9
Real GDP 3.9 6.3 7.0 2.7 7.0 -1.6 -0.6 2.6 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.9 1.2 1.5
GDP Price Index 2.5 5.2 6.3 6.2 6.8 8.3 9.0 4.1 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.3
Consumer Price Index 2.2 4.1 8.2 6.7 7.9 9.2 10.5 5.7 4.8 4.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
PCE Price Index 1.6 4.5 6.4 5.6 6.2 7.5 7.3 4.2 4.3 3.6 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3

Forecasts for interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s Advanced Foreign Economies Index represent averages for the quarter. Forecasts for Real GDP, GDP Price Index, CPI and
PCE Price Index are seasonally-adjusted annual rates of change (saar). Individual panel members’ forecasts are on pages 4 through 9. Historical data: Treasury rates from the
Federal Reserve Board’s H.15; AAA-AA and A-BBB corporate bond yields from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and are 15+ years, yield to maturity; State and local bond
yields from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, A-rated, yield to maturity; Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac, 30-year, fixed; SOFR from the New York Fed. All interest rate data
are sourced from Haver Analytics. Historical data for Fed’s Major Currency Index are from FRSR H.10. Historical data for Real GDP, GDP Price Index and PCE Price Index are
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Consumer Price Index history is from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)..

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3mo 6mo 1yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 30yr
Pe
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Maturities
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
Week ended Oct 21, 2022 & Year Ago vs.4Q 2022 & 1Q 2024Consensus Forecasts
Year Ago
Week ended 10/21/2022
Consensus 1Q 2024
Consensus 4Q 2022
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1Q'09 1Q'11 1Q'13 1Q'15 1Q'17 1Q'19 1Q'21 1Q'23
Pe
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US 3-Mo T-Bills & 10-Yr T-Note Yield
(Quarterly Average)
History Forecast
Consensus
10-Yr T-Note Yield
Consensus
3-Mo T-Bill Yield
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Corporate Bond Spreads
As of week ended Oct 21, 2022
Aaa Corporate
Bond Yield
minus 10-Yr T-
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Bond Yield
minus 10-Yr T-
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U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
As of week ended Oct 21, 2022
10-Yr T-Note minus
3-Mo T-Bill (Constant
Maturity Yields)

NOVEMBER 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  3

-------------Policy Rates1-----------------
-----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts
Month Year Months From Now:
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12
U.S. 3.13 3.13 0.13 4.41 4.60 4.43 Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.07 -0.08
U.K. 2.25 2.25 0.10 3.39 3.63 3.64
Switzerland 0.50 0.50 -0.75 1.09 1.45 1.42
Canada 3.25 3.25 0.25 4.27 4.27 4.21
Australia 2.60 2.35 0.10 3.22 3.16 3.09
Euro area 1.25 1.25 0.00 2.10 2.48 2.50

-----------10-Yr. Government Bond Yields2------
--------- -----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts
Month Year Months From Now:
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12
U.S. 4.21 3.69 1.66 3.94 3.79 3.56
Germany 2.42 2.03 -0.11 2.24 2.15 2.15
Japan 0.26 0.27 0.10 0.24 0.23 0.22
U.K. 4.16 3.97 1.15 3.74 3.72 3.65
France 2.99 2.60 0.24 2.68 2.48 2.44
Italy 4.76 4.33 0.95 4.26 4.01 3.85
Switzerland 1.39 1.22 -0.04 1.48 1.41 1.36
Canada 3.62 3.07 1.65 3.55 3.48 3.31
Australia 4.20 3.93 1.80 4.04 3.88 3.65
Spain 3.53 3.04 0.51 3.30 3.07 2.98

----------------Foreign Exchange Rates3-----------
----- -----------History---------- Consensus Forecasts
Month Year Months From Now:
Latest: Ago: Ago: 3 6 12
U.S. 123.36 123.69 105.41 124.5 124.1 119.1
Japan 146.35 143.18 113.54 144.4 140.9 135.2
U.K. 1.13 1.09 1.37 1.11 1.10 1.16
Switzerland 1.00 0.98 0.92 1.01 1.01 0.97
Canada 1.37 1.36 1.24 1.36 1.36 1.32
Australia 0.64 0.65 0.75 0.65 0.66 0.69
Euro 0.99 0.97 1.16 0.96 0.95 1.01

Consensus Consensus
Policy Rates
vs. US Rate
10-Year Gov’t
Yields vs. U.S. Yield
Now In 12 Mo. Now In 12 Mo.
Japan -3.23 -4.51 Germany -1.79 -1.41
U.K. -0.88 -0.79 Japan -3.95 -3.33
Switzerland -2.63 -3.02 U.K. -0.05 0.10
Canada 0.13 -0.22 France -1.22 -1.12
Australia -0.53 -1.34 Italy 0.55 0.29
Euro area -1.88 -1.93 Switzerland -2.82 -2.19
Canada -0.61 -0.25 Australia -0.01 0.09
Spain -0.68 -0.57

Forecasts of panel members are on pages 10 and 11. Definitions of vari-
ables are as follows: 1Monetary policy rates. 2Government bonds are
yields to maturity. 3Foreign exchange rate forecasts for U.K., Australia
and the Euro are U.S. dollars per currency unit. For the U.S dollar,
forecasts are of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s AFE Dollar Index.

International. The outlook for the world economy has deteriorated
over the past few weeks and the risks of a global recession have con-
tinued to climb. The roots of this instability lie with the supply-side
shocks that originated from the COVID pandemic and Russia’s inva-
sion of Ukraine. But this stress is now being amplified by the resulting
surge in inflation and the monetary policy response To be sure, there
are regional nuances to this narrative with Europe, for example, be-
deviled by sky-high energy prices as well as by pockets of political
instability (e.g. in the UK). Asia is also being restrained by relatively
restrictive COVID policies, notably in China, as well as by the latter’s
domestic property market stress. But the heavy commitment from the
world’s central banks to combat high inflation with even tighter mone-
tary policy, and the tightening of global financial conditions this is
generating, is arguably the biggest risk for the world economy in the
period ahead. Against that backdrop it is certainly of note from one of
our special questions this month, that none of our panelists believe the
Euro area or UK will avoid a recession in the coming months.
Incoming economic data certainly chime with these concerns with
forward-looking survey data suggesting a broadly-based weakening in
global growth lies ahead. The composite index in October’s flash
Markit PMI surveys, for example, for the US, Euro Area, and the UK,
all weakened further into contraction territory and are thus at levels
that have previously been associated with a recessionary phase.
Will this prospective economic weakness be sufficient to steer central
banks away from their monetary tightening campaign? Probably not,
at least not yet. The key reason for this is that incoming inflation data
in most major economies are either still climbing and/or still well
above levels that would suggest policy settings are now sufficiently
tight. Relatively tight labor markets, still-high food prices and rising
inflation in services seem sufficient to keep central banks highly vigi-
lant for now.
Blue Chip panelists are accordingly expecting a further tightening of
monetary policy in the immediate months ahead in many major econ-
omies, including in the Euro Area, the UK, Switzerland, Canada and
Australia. In our August and September surveys BCFF panelists had
converged on a view for the UK, Australia and Canada that interest
rates could reach a peak in 6 to 9 months and that an easing cycle
might then begin in late 2023. That view has since shifted, however,
and monetary policy in most developed economies is now expected to
be tighter for longer than had previously been anticipated.
The UK economic and policy outlook, in particular, has been chal-
lenged of late by political instability. The announcement in late Sep-
tember of an unexpected, and unorthodox, easing of fiscal policy sent
shockwaves through UK financial markets. Intervention from the BoE
in the UK gilt market, the resignation of the finance minister, a subse-
quent U-turn on fiscal policy, followed by the resignation of Liz Truss
and election of Rishi Sunak as new Prime Minister, have now restored
some stability. Even so, the credibility of the UK’s policymakers and
its institutions has been sorely tested and a risk premium on its finan-
cial assets could be slow to fully normalize.
The “tighter for longer mantra” that applies to most major developed
economies at present does not apply to Japan. A sluggish recovery
from the pandemic and lingering structural restraints have insulated
the economy from the same inflation challenges that have bedeviled
most major economies. Both headline and core CPI inflation were just
3.0% y/y in September. However, while that has, until recently, left
the BoJ with some latitude to keep policy rates in negative territory,
the wide spread with interest rates elsewhere has caused the yen to
weaken sharply and import prices to rise sharply. Fears that monetary
policy may now be too loose against this backdrop have, in turn,
caused JGB yields to shift higher, forcing the BoJ to intervene via its
yield-curve control policy. In short, just like elsewhere, uncertainty
about the trajectory of monetary policy in Japan is now also rising.
4  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  NOVEMBER 1, 2022

------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
Swiss Re 4.8 H na na na na na na na na 3.9 na na na na na na na na na na
Barclays 4.6 7.8 H na na na na na 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 na na na na na 0.0 4.4 4.5 4.6
BNP Paribas Americas 4.6 na na na na na na 4.7 na 3.6 3.6 na na na na na 1.1 na 7.5 na
Nomura Securities, Inc.4.6 7.8 H na na na na na 4.6 4.2 3.7 na na na na na na -1.1 5.4 5.5 4.6
Chan Economics 4.5 7.5 4.4 H 4.5 H 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.8 6.0 7.0 5.2 7.2 124.0 -0.5 3.7 3.6 3.3
Scotiabank Group 4.5 na na na 4.9 H na na 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.1 na na na na na -0.3 5.5 7.8 H 6.3 H
TS Lombard 4.5 7.6 4.4 H 4.5 H 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.7 4.0 7.3 125.0 1.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Bank of America 4.4 na na na na na na 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.6 na na na na na 0.5 5.3 4.4 4.2
ING 4.4 na na na na na na 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2 na na na na na 0.6 na na na
MacroPolicy Perspectives 4.4 7.4 4.3 4.5 H 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 na na na na 7.2 na 1.1 3.7 3.5 3.3
Mizuho Research Institute 4.4 na na na na na na na na 4.0 na na na na na na na na na na
Wells Fargo 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 5.3 6.3 4.7 6.7 na 1.1 4.9 5.8 4.9
ACIMA Private Wealth 4.0 7.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 5.0 6.5 3.0 L 6.8 120.0 1.5 5.0 4.5 5.0
Daiwa Capital Markets America 4.0 7.1 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.5 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.1 L 5.1 L na 7.1 124.0 0.0 4.5 4.8 4.6
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 3.9 6.8 3.8 4.0 4.7 5.0 5.4 H 5.5 H 5.2 H 4.9 H 5.0 H 6.3 H 7.1 H 5.3 7.8 H 124.9 0.6 4.0 4.2 4.0
Via Nova Investment Mgt.3.9 7.1 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.6 6.2 6.6 5.6 H 7.0 123.0 1.0 4.2 4.0 3.7
Action Economics 3.8 7.0 3.2 L 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.1 6.2 4.1 7.2 119.0 L 0.5 5.8 5.4 5.2
Bank of the West 3.8 6.9 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 5.4 6.6 5.0 6.9 123.7 0.2 3.5 4.2 3.5
BMO Capital Markets 3.8 6.9 3.6 na 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 na na na 6.9 124.2 0.1 4.0 6.0 6.0
Loomis, Sayles & Company 3.8 7.0 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.3 H 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 5.0 6.1 4.6 6.8 123.1 0.9 2.9 3.4 L 3.0 L
Moody's Analytics 3.8 7.0 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.3 5.5 6.6 4.3 6.4 na 0.2 3.5 3.8 3.6
Amherst Pierpont Securities 3.7 6.8 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.4 4.0 7.1 123.5 1.5 4.5 6.2 5.3
DePrince & Assoc.3.7 6.8 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.1 4.1 5.3 6.4 4.5 6.9 123.7 1.9 4.7 4.6 3.9
Economist Intelligence Unit 3.7 5.7 na 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.4 na na na 7.2 na -2.2 na 3.6 na
Ernst & Young Parthenon 3.7 na na na 3.9 na na na na 3.9 na na na na na na -2.1 4.4 4.8 4.5
Georgia State University 3.7 6.7 na na 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 6.0 6.7 na 6.4 na -0.9 4.2 4.6 4.3
GLC Financial Economics 3.7 6.8 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.9 5.2 6.1 4.6 6.1 119.4 1.0 5.7 3.7 3.9
KPMG 3.7 6.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.7 4.8 6.2 na 6.6 na -2.3 L 5.5 3.8 3.7
Oxford Economics 3.7 6.8 3.7 na 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.4 na na 6.9 125.1 H -0.3 2.3 L 3.7 3.2
RDQ Economics 3.7 6.8 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.1 5.2 6.3 4.7 6.8 124.0 2.5 H 5.0 5.0 4.0
Regions Financial Corporation 3.7 6.6 3.2 L 3.7 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.9 4.7 6.8 122.9 0.4 4.9 5.2 5.0
Societe Generale 3.7 6.8 3.6 na 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1 na na na na na 1.2 3.7 3.5 3.3
The Northern Trust Company 3.7 6.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.4 5.4 6.4 5.2 6.5 124.3 0.8 4.0 4.2 3.5
Thru the Cycle 3.7 6.8 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.0 5.3 6.2 4.8 6.7 124.3 0.5 5.4 4.3 3.7
AIG 3.6 6.7 3.5 na 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 na 6.2 na 6.2 na 0.9 5.8 5.0 4.5
Comerica Bank 3.6 6.7 na na 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.8 4.9 5.9 na 6.9 na -1.6 4.2 6.4 5.0
S&P Global Market Intelligence 3.5 6.7 3.5 na 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 na 6.2 na 6.7 na -1.2 5.8 5.0 4.5
Chmura Economics & Analytics 3.4 6.5 3.3 3.5 L 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.1 5.2 na na 6.9 na 0.4 4.7 4.9 4.6
J.P. Morgan Chase 3.2 na na na na na na 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 na na na na na 1.5 2.5 3.5 3.0 L
Fannie Mae 2.3 L 5.4 L na na 2.8 L 3.2 L 3.4 L 3.4 L 3.2 L 3.1 L 3.3 L na na na 5.6 L na 2.3 7.2 H 5.8 6.3 H
November Consensus 3.9 6.9 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 5.3 6.3 4.6 6.8 123.2 0.4 4.6 4.8 4.3
Top 10 Avg. 4.5 7.4 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.4 5.7 6.6 5.0 7.2 124.4 1.6 5.8 6.2 5.5
Bottom 10 Avg. 3.4 6.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 4.9 6.0 4.3 6.4 122.2 -1.3 3.4 3.6 3.3
October Consensus 3.8 6.9 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.8 5.0 6.0 4.4 6.3 121.4 0.7 4.3 3.9 3.7
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 3 5 4 2 4 3 4 5 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 21 10 8 12
Same 16 14 10 7 6 6 5 7 7 11 6 7 5 5 4 2 8 9 7 6
Up 21 13 11 13 22 21 20 25 24 26 26 15 16 11 24 13 9 16 22 17
Diffusion Index 73%63%64%75%78%80%78%77%76%79%83%80%84%79%90%82%34%59%69%57%
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)------------------- ---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv
Fgn Econ
$ Index
SOFR
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
Fourth Quarter 2022
Interest Rate Forecasts Key Assumptions
Avg. For

NOVEMBER 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  5
------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
Nomura Securities, Inc.5.4 H 8.5 H na na na na na 4.8 4.1 3.4 na na na na na na -1.7 4.1 3.6 2.7
TS Lombard 5.3 8.4 5.2 H 5.2 H 5.5 H 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.4 5.1 6.0 4.3 7.3 120.0 -0.5 5.0 5.0 5.0
Action Economics 5.1 8.3 4.6 5.2 H 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 5.2 6.3 4.1 7.3 123.2 0.1 3.4 3.3 3.0
Barclays 5.1 8.3 na na na na na 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.6 na na na na na -0.5 3.4 2.6 3.4
BNP Paribas Americas 5.1 na na na na na na 4.3 na 3.5 3.6 na na na na na 0.0 na 6.3 na
Swiss Re 5.1 na na na na na na na na 3.7 na na na na na na na na na na
Scotiabank Group 5.0 na na na 4.9 na na 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.9 na na na na na -0.2 4.0 6.7 H 5.3
Bank of America 4.9 na na na na na na 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.5 na na na na na -1.5 5.5 4.3 3.8
MacroPolicy Perspectives 4.9 7.9 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 na na na na 7.2 na 1.0 2.6 2.1 2.2
Wells Fargo 4.9 8.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 5.3 6.3 4.7 6.6 na 0.4 3.7 4.3 3.7
Daiwa Capital Markets America 4.8 7.9 4.7 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.4 5.5 6.7 na 7.3 125.0 -0.7 4.0 4.0 3.8
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 4.8 7.8 4.7 4.9 5.5 H 5.7 H 6.1 H 6.0 H 5.7 H 5.3 H 5.5 H 6.8 H 7.6 5.7 H 7.9 H 125.2 0.2 3.4 3.6 3.5
RDQ Economics 4.8 7.9 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.2 5.4 6.5 4.8 6.8 122.2 2.3 H 4.5 4.5 3.9
Chan Economics 4.7 7.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 6.2 7.2 5.4 7.4 124.2 -0.2 3.4 3.4 3.0
DePrince & Assoc.4.7 7.8 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.2 5.7 6.7 4.9 7.0 121.3 1.7 3.7 3.6 3.1
Comerica Bank 4.6 7.7 na na 4.6 4.6 4.4 3.8 L 3.4 L 3.1 L 3.4 4.6 5.6 L na 7.3 na -3.9 L 3.6 4.6 4.4
Mizuho Research Institute 4.6 na na na na na na na na 3.8 na na na na na na na na na na
Via Nova Investment Mgt.4.6 7.8 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.4 5.8 6.3 5.3 6.6 121.0 1.0 3.5 3.4 3.3
Amherst Pierpont Securities 4.5 7.7 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.3 5.5 6.7 4.2 7.1 124.5 1.9 4.1 6.0 5.2
Bank of the West 4.5 7.7 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 5.6 6.8 5.2 7.1 124.8 -0.3 3.2 3.9 3.2
BMO Capital Markets 4.5 7.7 4.5 na 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 na na na 6.8 123.7 -1.0 4.2 5.8 5.6
Economist Intelligence Unit 4.5 6.5 L na 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.5 na na na 7.2 na -1.2 na 3.3 na
KPMG 4.5 7.7 4.5 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.6 5.1 6.1 na 6.5 na -2.8 4.5 3.3 3.3
Moody's Analytics 4.5 7.7 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 6.2 7.4 5.0 6.8 na -0.1 3.5 3.3 3.1
Societe Generale 4.5 7.7 4.5 na 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.1 na na na na na 1.9 3.4 3.9 3.6
AIG 4.4 7.4 4.3 na 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 na 6.1 na 6.1 L na -2.0 4.7 4.2 3.7
Chmura Economics & Analytics 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.6 5.8 na na 7.2 na -1.1 4.5 4.6 4.5
Ernst & Young Parthenon 4.4 na na na 4.2 na na na na 3.1 L na na na na na na -3.0 3.5 3.6 3.3
ING 4.4 na na na na na na 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.7 na na na na na -2.5 na na na
Oxford Economics 4.4 7.5 4.4 na 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.3 L 4.2 L na na 6.4 125.1 -1.8 3.5 4.4 3.6
The Northern Trust Company 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.5 5.4 6.4 5.3 6.4 126.0 0.1 3.7 3.5 3.1
Thru the Cycle 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.1 3.8 L 3.7 3.7 3.9 5.2 6.3 4.7 6.6 126.1 H 0.3 3.4 4.0 3.5
J.P. Morgan Chase 4.3 na na na na na na 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 na na na na na 1.0 2.2 3.4 2.9
Regions Financial Corporation 4.3 7.3 3.9 L 3.9 L 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 5.4 6.2 4.9 6.7 122.2 0.4 4.6 5.2 4.8
S&P Global Market Intelligence 4.3 7.4 4.3 na 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 na 6.2 na 6.6 na -2.3 4.7 4.2 3.7
Georgia State University 4.1 7.1 na na 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 5.8 6.6 na 6.1 L na -0.9 4.0 3.7 3.2
GLC Financial Economics 4.1 7.3 3.9 L 4.0 3.6 L 3.7 L 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.2 6.1 4.7 6.4 119.4 L 1.6 3.6 2.9 3.0
Loomis, Sayles & Company 4.1 7.3 4.1 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.9 5.0 6.1 4.6 6.8 123.2 1.3 2.5 3.2 2.8
ACIMA Private Wealth 4.0 L 7.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.9 L 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 5.8 7.8 H 3.0 L 7.0 120.0 -2.0 1.0 L 0.8 L 1.0 L
Fannie Mae 4.0 L 7.1 na na 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 na na na 6.9 na -0.7 6.9 H 4.9 5.8 H
November Consensus 4.6 7.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.1 5.5 6.5 4.8 6.9 123.2 -0.4 3.8 4.0 3.6
Top 10 Avg. 5.1 8.1 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.7 5.9 7.0 5.1 7.3 124.8 1.4 4.9 5.4 4.8
Bottom 10 Avg. 4.2 7.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.6 5.0 6.1 4.4 6.4 121.6 -2.4 2.9 2.8 2.7
October Consensus 4.3 7.4 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.9 5.4 6.4 4.6 6.4 121.5 0.1 3.5 3.4 3.2
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 2 3 2 1 4 2 4 7 7 6 5 3 4 6 2 2 22 6 5 8
Same 15 13 10 10 8 7 6 9 9 11 9 6 5 3 7 2 8 10 10 7
Up 23 16 13 11 20 21 19 21 20 23 21 14 13 8 20 13 8 19 22 20
Diffusion Index 76%70%72%73%75%82%76%69%68%71%73%74%70%56%81%82%32%69%73%67%
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)------------------- ---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv
Fgn Econ
$ Index
SOFR
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
First Quarter 2023
Interest Rate Forecasts Key Assumptions
Avg. For
6  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  NOVEMBER 1, 2022

---------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter---------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
Nomura Securities, Inc.5.4 H 8.5 H na na na na na 4.4 3.7 2.9 na na na na na na -2.4 L 3.1 2.2 1.7
RDQ Economics 5.4 H 8.5 H 5.4 H 5.5 H 5.7 H 5.9 H 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.2 5.5 6.6 4.8 6.8 121.1 2.2 H 4.1 4.3 3.7
Action Economics 5.1 8.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 5.2 6.3 4.1 7.3 123.3 0.7 2.1 2.7 2.4
Barclays 5.1 8.3 na na na na na 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.6 na na na na na -1.0 1.6 2.7 1.2
BNP Paribas Americas 5.1 na na na na na na 4.0 na 3.5 3.5 na na na na na -1.5 na 4.5 na
Swiss Re 5.1 na na na na na na na na 3.5 na na na na na na na na na na
Amherst Pierpont Securities 5.0 8.2 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.7 6.0 7.3 4.5 7.2 125.0 1.8 3.6 5.2 4.7 H
Scotiabank Group 5.0 na na na 4.9 na na 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 na na na na na 0.2 4.5 5.3 H 4.2
Bank of America 4.9 na na na na na na 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.4 na na na na na -1.5 5.0 3.5 3.2
Daiwa Capital Markets America 4.9 8.0 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.4 5.5 6.8 na 7.2 123.0 -1.1 3.8 3.5 3.3
DePrince & Assoc.4.9 8.0 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.3 5.8 6.7 4.9 6.9 121.7 0.9 3.3 3.2 2.7
Loomis, Sayles & Company 4.9 8.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.3 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.8 4.9 6.0 4.5 6.7 122.9 1.8 2.4 3.0 2.6
MacroPolicy Perspectives 4.9 7.9 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.2 na na na na 6.9 na 1.2 2.5 1.2 2.1
Wells Fargo 4.9 8.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.8 5.1 6.1 4.5 6.4 na -2.1 2.7 2.5 2.7
AIG 4.8 7.8 4.6 na 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.8 na 6.1 na 6.1 na -0.7 3.2 2.3 2.0
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 4.8 7.9 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.7 6.1 H 6.0 H 5.7 H 5.4 H 5.7 H 6.9 H 7.7 H 5.8 H 8.0 H 125.5 0.3 3.1 3.0 2.9
Via Nova Investment Mgt.4.8 8.0 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.6 6.0 6.5 5.5 6.8 118.0 1.0 3.0 2.9 2.8
Chan Economics 4.7 7.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 6.2 7.2 5.4 7.4 124.0 -0.3 3.0 3.2 2.8
Fannie Mae 4.7 7.8 na na 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.2 na na na 6.9 na -1.9 5.9 H 2.4 4.7 H
J.P. Morgan Chase 4.7 na na na na na na 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 na na na na na 0.8 2.2 3.2 2.7
Bank of the West 4.6 7.8 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 5.7 6.9 5.3 7.2 124.2 -1.5 2.7 3.6 3.0
BMO Capital Markets 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 na na na 6.8 122.0 -0.7 2.8 3.7 3.5
Comerica Bank 4.6 7.7 na na 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.5 4.5 5.5 na 6.9 na 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.3
Economist Intelligence Unit 4.6 6.6 na 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.4 na na na 7.0 na 1.3 na 2.9 na
KPMG 4.6 7.8 4.6 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.6 5.2 6.0 na 6.3 na -0.3 2.9 1.5 1.7
Mizuho Research Institute 4.6 na na na na na na na na 3.6 na na na na na na na na na na
Moody's Analytics 4.6 7.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.9 6.1 7.2 4.9 6.6 na 0.7 3.0 3.0 2.7
S&P Global Market Intelligence 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.8 na 6.1 na 6.3 na -0.7 3.2 2.3 2.0
Societe Generale 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.6 4.6 4.4 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.7 na na na na na 1.9 3.3 3.4 3.0
Chmura Economics & Analytics 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 6.0 na na 7.0 na -0.4 4.1 4.3 4.3
Ernst & Young Parthenon 4.4 na na na 4.1 na na na na 2.8 L na na na na na na -0.6 2.6 1.9 2.3
ING 4.4 na na na na na na 3.3 L 3.1 L 3.0 3.3 na na na na na -1.1 na na na
Oxford Economics 4.4 7.5 4.4 na 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.2 L 4.2 L na na 6.2 124.5 -1.6 3.3 3.7 3.1
The Northern Trust Company 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.4 5.3 6.3 5.2 6.2 122.0 0.2 2.6 2.8 2.4
GLC Financial Economics 4.3 7.4 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.5 6.4 4.9 6.5 118.7 1.8 3.1 2.6 2.6
Regions Financial Corporation 4.3 7.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 5.5 6.4 4.8 6.6 120.7 0.6 2.8 3.8 3.6
Thru the Cycle 4.3 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.5 4.8 6.0 4.3 6.1 126.2 H 0.5 2.6 3.4 2.3
Georgia State University 4.1 7.1 na na 3.9 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.7 5.4 6.5 na 5.6 L na -1.4 3.9 3.0 2.5
TS Lombard 4.0 7.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.6 4.4 5.2 L 3.5 6.5 118.0 -1.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
ACIMA Private Wealth 3.5 L 6.5 L 3.5 L 3.6 L 3.6 L 3.3 L 3.5 L 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.9 5.5 7.0 2.7 L 5.7 115.0 L -2.0 -1.5 L -1.0 L -1.1 L
November Consensus 4.7 7.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.1 5.4 6.5 4.7 6.7 122.0 -0.1 3.1 3.0 2.8
Top 10 Avg. 5.1 8.2 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 6.0 7.0 5.2 7.2 124.1 1.6 4.2 4.2 3.9
Bottom 10 Avg. 4.2 7.2 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.5 4.9 6.0 4.3 6.1 120.0 -1.7 2.0 1.8 1.7
October Consensus 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.0 5.4 6.5 4.7 6.3 120.4 0.1 3.0 3.0 2.7
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 1 2 2 3 3 2 4 6 8 6 5 5 4 6 5 3 23 12 11 13
Same 19 15 12 11 11 9 8 11 10 12 11 6 5 6 5 3 6 15 12 10
Up 20 15 11 8 18 19 17 20 18 22 19 12 13 5 19 11 9 8 14 12
Diffusion Index 74%70%68%61%73%78%72%69%64%70%70%65%70%47%74%74%32%44%54%49%
Avg. For
---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv
Fgn Econ
1
Federal
Funds
Prime SOFR
$ Index
Second Quarter 2023
Interest Rate Forecasts
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------
Key Assumptions

NOVEMBER 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  7

------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
RDQ Economics 5.4 H 8.5 H 5.4 H 5.5 H 5.7 H 5.9 H 5.5 H 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 5.7 6.8 4.8 6.9 120.7 1.6 3.7 3.9 3.5
Amherst Pierpont Securities 5.1 8.3 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.8 6.0 7.3 H 4.6 7.3 125.0 1.8 3.4 4.4 H 4.0 H
BNP Paribas Americas 5.1 na na na na na na 3.8 na 3.4 3.5 na na na na na -1.7 na 3.8 na
Nomura Securities, Inc.5.1 8.3 na na na na na 3.9 3.2 2.5 L na na na na na na -1.8 L 2.6 2.4 1.7
Swiss Re 5.1 na na na na na na na na 3.6 na na na na na na na na na na
Action Economics 5.0 8.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 5.1 6.2 4.1 7.2 123.4 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.2
Scotiabank Group 5.0 na na na 4.8 na na 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.5 na na na na na 0.6 1.0 L 4.4 H 3.6
Bank of America 4.9 na na na na na na 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.3 na na na na na -1.5 4.3 2.7 2.6
Barclays 4.9 8.0 na na na na na 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.5 na na na na na -0.5 2.3 2.6 2.0
Daiwa Capital Markets America 4.9 8.0 4.8 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.3 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.3 5.6 6.9 na 7.1 122.0 -1.3 3.5 3.2 3.0
DePrince & Assoc.4.9 8.0 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.5 H 5.4 H 5.1 H 4.6 4.4 5.9 6.7 5.0 6.9 122.8 1.0 2.9 2.8 2.4
Loomis, Sayles & Company 4.9 8.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.2 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 4.8 5.9 4.4 6.6 122.6 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.5
MacroPolicy Perspectives 4.9 7.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 na na na na 6.8 na 1.5 2.8 1.5 L 2.4
Wells Fargo 4.9 8.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 5.0 6.0 4.4 6.2 na -1.8 L 2.4 2.4 2.4
AIG 4.8 7.8 4.6 na 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.7 na 6.0 na 6.0 na 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.3
J.P. Morgan Chase 4.8 na na na na na na 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 na na na na na 0.8 2.3 3.2 2.7
Via Nova Investment Mgt.4.8 8.0 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.6 6.0 6.5 5.5 H 6.7 115.0 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.4
Chan Economics 4.7 7.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 H 4.9 H 5.0 6.2 7.2 5.4 7.4 H 123.3 1.0 2.8 2.8 2.5
Bank of the West 4.6 7.8 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 5.7 6.9 5.4 7.1 123.8 -0.2 2.5 3.0 2.6
BMO Capital Markets 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.6 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 na na na 6.7 120.3 0.7 2.7 3.2 3.0
Economist Intelligence Unit 4.6 6.6 na 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.3 na na na 7.0 na 2.1 na 1.9 na
Fannie Mae 4.6 7.7 na na 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.2 na na na 6.7 na -1.4 4.5 H 1.8 3.4
KPMG 4.6 7.8 4.6 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.7 5.2 5.9 na 6.0 na 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.0
Mizuho Research Institute 4.6 na na na na na na na na 3.6 na na na na na na na na na na
Moody's Analytics 4.6 7.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.9 6.0 7.1 4.8 6.4 na 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.2
S&P Global Market Intelligence 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.7 na 6.0 na 6.1 na 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.3
Societe Generale 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.4 2.9 3.0 3.3 na na na na na 1.8 3.3 3.1 2.8
Chmura Economics & Analytics 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.9 na na 6.9 na 1.5 3.7 3.9 3.9
Comerica Bank 4.4 7.5 na na 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.7 4.7 5.7 na 6.5 na 3.0 2.2 2.5 2.2
Oxford Economics 4.4 7.5 4.4 na 4.3 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.1 L 4.1 L na na 6.0 124.0 0.3 3.2 3.1 2.7
The Northern Trust Company 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.3 5.2 6.2 5.1 6.1 118.0 0.6 2.4 2.6 2.3
Ernst & Young Parthenon 4.3 na na na 4.0 na na na na 2.7 na na na na na na 1.1 2.3 1.7 2.2
GLC Financial Economics 4.3 7.4 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.5 6.4 4.9 6.7 117.9 2.2 2.8 3.4 2.9
Regions Financial Corporation 4.3 7.3 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.9 5.4 6.4 4.6 6.4 119.6 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7
Georgia State University 4.0 7.0 na na 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.6 5.1 6.4 na 5.5 L na -0.1 3.5 2.4 2.5
ING 3.9 na na na na na na 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.2 na na na na na 0.9 na na na
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 3.8 6.9 3.7 3.9 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.8 5.1 H 6.3 H 7.1 5.2 7.4 H 125.8 H 1.0 2.7 2.7 2.5
Thru the Cycle 3.7 6.8 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.3 4.7 5.9 4.1 6.0 122.5 0.8 2.6 3.2 2.1
TS Lombard 3.5 6.6 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.1 L 5.0 L 3.3 6.3 115.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
ACIMA Private Wealth 2.5 L 5.5 L 2.5 L 2.6 L 2.6 L 2.0 L 2.4 L 2.6 L 2.1 L 3.0 3.7 5.0 6.5 2.0 L 5.5 L 105.0 L 5.5 H 1.9 1.5 L 0.8 L
November Consensus 4.6 7.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 5.4 6.4 4.6 6.6 120.4 0.9 2.7 2.8 2.6
Top 10 Avg. 5.1 8.1 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7 5.9 6.9 5.1 7.1 123.5 2.4 3.6 3.7 3.3
Bottom 10 Avg. 3.9 6.9 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.4 4.8 5.9 4.1 6.0 117.6 -1.0 2.0 2.0 1.9
October Consensus 4.3 7.4 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.9 5.4 6.4 4.6 6.2 118.8 0.9 2.8 2.6 2.5
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 1 3 3 4 3 3 5 7 7 8 8 5 5 7 5 2 20 11 12 11
Same 20 16 12 11 10 8 9 11 11 11 9 7 4 6 6 4 10 15 9 10
Up 19 13 10 7 19 19 15 19 18 21 18 11 13 4 18 11 8 9 16 14
Diffusion Index 73%66%64%57%75%77%67%66%65%66%64%63%68%41%72%76%34%47%55%54%
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)------------------- ---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv
Fgn Econ
$ Index
SOFR
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
Third Quarter 2023
Interest Rate Forecasts Key Assumptions
Avg. For

8  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  NOVEMBER 1, 2022
------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
RDQ Economics 5.4 H 8.5 H 5.4 H 5.5 H 5.6 H 5.8 H 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 5.8 7.0 4.9 7.0 120.2 1.1 3.6 3.8 3.5 H
Amherst Pierpont Securities 5.1 8.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.8 6.1 7.4 4.5 7.3 124.0 1.6 3.3 3.7 3.3
BNP Paribas Americas 5.1 na na na na na na 3.5 na 3.3 3.4 na na na na na -1.0 L na 3.1 na
Swiss Re 5.1 na na na na na na na na 3.6 na na na na na na na na na na
Chan Economics 5.0 8.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 H 5.5 H 5.4 H 5.2 H 5.3 H 6.5 H 7.5 H 5.7 H 7.7 H 123.3 1.0 2.7 2.8 2.5
Daiwa Capital Markets America 4.9 8.0 4.8 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 5.7 6.8 na 7.0 121.0 -0.3 3.2 2.8 2.6
Loomis, Sayles & Company 4.9 8.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 4.7 5.8 4.3 6.3 122.3 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4
AIG 4.8 7.8 4.6 na 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 na 5.9 na 5.9 na 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.3
J.P. Morgan Chase 4.8 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 0.5 2.3 2.5 2.2
Scotiabank Group 4.8 na na na 4.3 na na 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 na na na na na 1.2 1.4 L 3.5 2.9
Via Nova Investment Mgt.4.8 8.0 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.6 6.0 6.5 5.5 6.6 112.0 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4
Action Economics 4.7 7.8 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 5.1 6.2 4.0 7.2 123.4 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.2
DePrince & Assoc.4.7 7.8 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.6 4.4 5.9 6.7 5.0 6.8 122.4 1.2 2.9 2.8 2.4
Bank of America 4.6 na na na na na na 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.2 na na na na na 1.0 4.2 H 1.9 2.1
Bank of the West 4.6 7.8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 5.7 6.9 5.4 7.1 123.6 0.6 2.3 2.5 2.5
BMO Capital Markets 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.6 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 na na na 6.7 118.6 1.2 2.5 2.9 2.7
Economist Intelligence Unit 4.6 6.6 na 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.2 na na na 6.8 na 2.5 na 1.7 na
MacroPolicy Perspectives 4.6 7.1 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 na na na na 6.5 na 1.6 3.2 2.3 2.8
Mizuho Research Institute 4.6 na na na na na na na na 3.7 na na na na na na na na na na
Nomura Securities, Inc.4.6 7.8 na na na na na 3.2 2.7 2.1 na na na na na na -0.5 2.5 2.0 1.4 L
S&P Global Market Intelligence 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 na 5.9 na 5.8 na 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.3
Societe Generale 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.7 L na na na na na 0.7 3.4 3.2 2.8
KPMG 4.5 7.7 4.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.7 5.2 5.8 na 5.9 na 1.4 3.1 3.9 H 3.1
Moody's Analytics 4.5 7.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.9 6.0 7.0 4.8 6.3 na 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3
Barclays 4.4 7.5 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 0.5 2.0 1.7 1.7
Chmura Economics & Analytics 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.8 na na 6.7 na 1.4 3.5 3.8 3.4
Fannie Mae 4.4 7.5 na na 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.1 na na na 6.6 na -0.1 4.0 2.7 2.9
Oxford Economics 4.4 7.5 4.4 na 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.9 L na na 5.9 123.3 1.7 2.9 2.7 2.4
The Northern Trust Company 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 4.2 5.1 6.1 5.0 6.0 116.0 1.0 2.5 2.5 2.3
Wells Fargo 4.4 7.5 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.5 5.5 L 3.9 5.6 na -0.9 2.1 2.3 2.1
GLC Financial Economics 4.3 7.4 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.4 6.6 5.0 6.8 117.2 2.2 3.0 3.4 3.0
Regions Financial Corporation 4.3 7.3 4.1 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 5.4 6.3 4.5 6.3 118.2 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.1
Comerica Bank 4.1 7.2 na na 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 4.6 5.5 L na 6.2 na 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9
Ernst & Young Parthenon 4.1 na na na 3.8 na na na na 2.8 na na na na na na 1.6 1.9 1.3 L 1.6
ING 3.4 na na na na na na 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.9 na na na na na 2.0 na na na
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 3.4 6.6 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.9 6.0 6.8 5.0 7.2 126.1 H 1.2 2.5 2.5 2.3
Georgia State University 3.3 6.3 na na 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.5 5.0 6.2 na 5.2 na 1.0 3.0 2.1 2.2
TS Lombard 3.3 6.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.6 5.5 L 3.8 6.0 118.0 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Thru the Cycle 3.1 6.3 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.2 4.5 5.8 4.0 5.8 123.1 0.5 2.4 2.2 1.7
ACIMA Private Wealth 1.0 L 4.0 L 1.0 L 1.1 L 1.1 L 0.7 L 1.0 L 1.3 L 1.0 L 2.0 L 3.3 4.0 5.5 L 1.0 L 4.3 L 100.0 L 4.0 H 1.8 2.0 2.2
November Consensus 4.4 7.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 5.3 6.3 4.5 6.4 119.6 1.2 2.7 2.6 2.4
Top 10 Avg. 5.0 8.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 6.0 6.9 5.1 7.1 123.3 2.3 3.5 3.4 3.0
Bottom 10 Avg. 3.4 6.5 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.2 4.6 5.7 4.0 5.6 116.4 0.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
October Consensus 4.2 7.3 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 5.2 6.3 4.5 6.1 117.6 1.3 2.7 2.5 2.4
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 2 3 2 5 3 3 5 8 8 8 7 3 4 7 4 1 17 10 11 13
Same 17 15 12 9 9 8 8 9 9 14 11 9 6 5 7 4 11 15 13 11
Up 21 14 11 8 20 19 16 18 17 16 15 11 12 5 18 12 10 10 13 11
Diffusion Index 74%67%68%57%77%77%69%64%63%61%62%67%68%44%74%82%41%50%53%47%
A.
Fed's Adv
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------
Fgn Econ
$ Index
SOFR
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
Fourth Quarter 2023
Interest Rate Forecasts Key Assumptions
Avg. For
---Qtr.---

NOVEMBER 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  9

------------------------------------------------------------Percent Per Annum -- Average For Quarter-------------------------------------------------------
Blue Chip ------------------------------Short-Term------------------------------ ---Intermediate-Term--- ---------------------Long-Term---------------------
Financial Forecasts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 B.C.D.E.
Panel Members Com.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Treas.Aaa Baa State &Home GDP Cons.PCE
Bank Rate Paper Bills Bills Bills Notes Notes Notes Bond Corp.Corp.Local Mtg.Real Price Price Price
Rate Rate 1-Mo.3-Mo.6-Mo.1-Yr.2-Yr.5-Yr.10-Yr.30-Yr.Bond Bond Bonds Rate GDP Index Index Index
Amherst Pierpont Securities 5.1 H 8.3 H 5.1 H 5.1 H 5.1 H 5.1 H 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.8 6.1 7.4 H 4.5 7.2 123.0 1.4 3.1 3.2 2.9
AIG 4.8 7.8 4.6 na 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 na 5.6 na 5.6 na 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.2
Daiwa Capital Markets America 4.8 7.9 4.7 4.5 4.8 5.1 H 5.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 5.6 6.8 na 6.9 120.0 0.4 2.9 2.7 2.5
Loomis, Sayles & Company 4.8 7.9 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.6 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.7 5.8 4.2 6.0 122.0 1.2 2.3 2.7 2.4
Swiss Re 4.8 na na na na na na na na 3.7 na na na na na na na na na na
Chan Economics 4.7 7.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.1 H 5.2 H 5.2 H 5.1 H 4.9 H 5.0 H 6.2 H 7.2 5.4 H 7.4 H 123.3 1.0 2.6 2.7 2.4
BNP Paribas Americas 4.6 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 0.1 na 2.6 na
Economist Intelligence Unit 4.6 6.6 na 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 na na na 6.7 na 1.3 na 2.2 na
S&P Global Market Intelligence 4.6 7.8 4.6 na 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 na 5.6 na 5.6 na 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.2
Bank of the West 4.5 7.7 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 5.6 6.8 5.4 H 7.0 123.6 0.9 2.2 2.4 2.3
DePrince & Assoc.4.5 7.6 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.5 5.9 6.7 5.0 6.7 122.1 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.3
Via Nova Investment Mgt.4.5 7.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.5 5.8 6.4 5.3 6.4 110.0 3.0 H 2.5 2.4 2.3
MacroPolicy Perspectives 4.4 6.6 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.9 na na na na 6.4 na na na na na
Mizuho Research Institute 4.4 na na na na na na na na 3.7 na na na na na na na na na na
Action Economics 4.3 7.4 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 5.0 6.1 4.0 7.1 123.4 na na na na
BMO Capital Markets 4.3 7.4 4.4 na 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 na na na 6.6 117.2 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.2
Chmura Economics & Analytics 4.3 7.4 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.6 na na 6.5 na 2.2 3.6 H 3.8 H 3.5 H
Fannie Mae 4.3 7.4 na na 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.1 na na na 6.4 na 1.5 3.2 3.0 2.5
Moody's Analytics 4.3 7.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.9 7.0 4.8 6.2 na 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3
Oxford Economics 4.3 7.4 4.3 na 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.8 L na na 5.6 122.2 2.1 3.0 2.5 2.7
Scotiabank Group 4.3 na na na 3.8 na na 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 na na na na na 1.8 0.8 L 2.7 2.2
Societe Generale 4.3 7.5 4.3 na 4.1 3.9 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.1 2.4 L na na na na na -0.5 L 1.8 2.2 2.6
GLC Financial Economics 4.2 7.3 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.4 6.5 5.0 6.8 117.1 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.0
Nomura Securities, Inc.4.1 7.3 na na na na na 2.6 2.2 1.8 L na na na na na na 0.2 2.1 2.1 1.5
Regions Financial Corporation 4.1 7.1 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 5.3 6.2 4.5 6.2 117.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8
The Northern Trust Company 4.1 7.3 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 4.1 5.0 6.0 4.9 5.9 115.0 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.2
Comerica Bank 3.8 7.0 na na 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.2 L na 6.0 na 2.0 1.9 1.1 L 1.2 L
Ernst & Young Parthenon 3.8 na na na 3.5 na na na na 2.9 na na na na na na 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8
KPMG 3.7 6.9 3.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.5 5.7 na 5.6 na 1.0 1.8 2.6 2.1
Wells Fargo 3.4 6.5 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 4.3 5.3 3.7 5.4 na 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.2
TS Lombard 3.3 6.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.6 5.5 3.8 5.6 120.0 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Georgia State University 3.1 6.1 na na 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 4.8 6.0 na 5.1 na 1.7 2.5 1.8 2.1
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Bus School 3.1 6.3 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.6 5.8 6.6 4.7 6.9 126.4 H 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.2
ING 2.9 na na na na na na 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 na na na na na 2.8 na na na
Thru the Cycle 2.6 5.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 4.4 5.8 3.8 5.6 120.8 1.0 2.0 1.7 1.8
ACIMA Private Wealth 0.1 L 3.1 L 0.1 L 0.2 L 0.2 L 0.2 L 0.2 L 0.5 L 0.7 L 2.0 3.3 4.0 5.3 1.0 L 4.0 L 97.0 L 3.0 H 2.0 2.0 2.1
November Consensus 4.1 7.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.9 5.1 6.2 4.4 6.2 118.9 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.3
Top 10 Avg. 4.7 7.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.8 6.8 5.0 6.9 122.7 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7
Bottom 10 Avg. 3.0 6.1 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.1 4.5 5.6 3.9 5.4 115.7 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
October Consensus 3.9 6.9 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 5.1 6.1 4.4 5.9 117.0 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.3
Number of Forecasts Changed From A Month Ago:
Down 2 5 1 4 3 3 6 5 5 7 6 5 6 7 4 2 10 4 4 4
Same 22 17 14 8 15 12 11 13 14 16 15 7 6 4 9 7 14 16 15 17
Up 12 8 9 9 13 14 11 13 12 11 9 10 9 5 15 7 8 8 12 8
Diffusion Index 64%55%67%62%66%69%59%63%61%56%55%61%57%44%70%66%47%57%63%57%
Avg. For
---Qtr.---
A.
Fed's Adv
Fgn Econ
$ Index
SOFR
1
Federal
Funds
Prime
First Quarter 2024
Interest Rate Forecasts Key Assumptions
-------------(Q-Q % Change)-------------
-------------------(SAAR)-------------------

10  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  NOVEMBER 1, 2022
International Interest Rate And Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts
United States
Fed Fund Target Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %Fed's AFE $ IndexBlue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.Barclays 4.63 5.13 --3.70 3.60 --------BMO Capital Markets 4.38 4.63 4.63 4.00 3.90 3.80 124.2 122.5 119.2ING Financial Markets 4.38 4.38 3.88 4.00 3.50 2.50 129.1 128.9 119.1Mizuho Research Institute 4.63 4.63 4.63 3.80 3.60 3.65 ------Moody's Analytics 3.82 4.56 4.62 3.94 4.57 4.59 ------Northern Trust 4.38 4.38 4.38 4.00 3.90 3.70 124.3 126.0 118.0Oxford Economics 3.71 4.38 4.38 3.69 3.48 3.23 125.1 125.1 124.0S&P Global Market Intelligence ------3.88 3.78 3.49 ------Scotiabank 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.00 3.80 3.60 ------
TS Lombard 5.25 4.00 3.50 4.25 3.50 3.25 120.0 118.0 115.0
Wells Fargo 4.38 4.88 4.88 4.05 4.05 3.75 ------
November Consensus 4.41 4.60 4.43 3.94 3.79 3.56 124.5 124.1 119.1
High 5.25 5.13 5.00 4.25 4.57 4.59 129.1 128.9 124.0
Low 3.71 4.00 3.50 3.69 3.48 2.50 120.0 118.0 115.0
Last Months Avg.3.81 4.23 4.18 3.55 3.49 3.31 120.1 119.9 115.8
Japan
Policy-Rate Balance Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %Yen per US$Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.Barclays -0.10 -0.10 --0.15 0.10 --140.0 139.0 --BMO Capital Markets -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.25 0.25 0.25 144.0 141.0 135.0ING Financial Markets -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.25 0.25 0.20 148.0 148.0 140.0Mizuho Research Institute -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.23 0.23 0.25 141.0 135.0 134.0Moody's Analytics -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.26 0.25 0.25 140.0 137.0 132.4Nomura Securities ------------145.0 135.0 125.0Northern Trust -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.25 0.25 0.25 145.0 145.0 135.0Oxford Economics -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 0.23 0.23 0.14 151.9 152.0 150.4S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------148.2 144.5 137.2Scotiabank------------140.0 138.0 133.0TS Lombard -0.02 0.10 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 145.0 135.0 130.0Wells Fargo -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.25 0.25 0.20 ------
November Consensus -0.09 -0.07 -0.08 0.24 0.23 0.22 144.4 140.9 135.2
High -0.02 0.10 0.00 0.26 0.25 0.25 151.9 152.0 150.4Low-0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.15 0.10 0.14 140.0 135.0 125.0Last Months Avg.-0.09 -0.09 -0.09 0.23 0.22 0.22 139.9 138.1 132.8
United Kingdom
Official Bank Rate 10 Yr. Gilt Yields %US$ per Pound SterlingBlue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 3.50 3.50 --3.50 3.60 --1.13 1.13 --
BMO Capital Markets 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.80 3.70 3.55 1.09 1.10 1.14
ING Financial Markets 3.75 3.75 3.75 4.25 3.75 3.25 1.00 1.00 1.14
Moody's Analytics 2.87 4.10 4.50 3.15 4.00 4.78 1.27 1.31 1.39
Nomura Securities ------------0.98 0.95 1.05
Northern Trust 3.50 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.40 3.30 1.06 1.02 1.12
Oxford Economics 2.99 3.91 4.00 4.17 4.50 4.35 1.11 1.10 1.11
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------1.18 1.19 1.22
Scotiabank ------------1.12 1.15 1.20
TS Lombard 3.25 2.00 1.50 3.70 2.95 2.70 1.12 1.08 1.10
Wells Fargo 3.75 4.00 4.00 3.85 3.85 3.65 ------
November Consensus 3.39 3.63 3.64 3.74 3.72 3.65 1.11 1.10 1.16
High 3.75 4.10 4.50 4.25 4.50 4.78 1.27 1.31 1.39Low2.87 2.00 1.50 3.15 2.95 2.70 0.98 0.95 1.05Last Months Avg.2.72 3.05 3.33 3.31 3.24 3.08 1.13 1.14 1.18
Switzerland
SNB Policy Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %CHF per US$Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 1.25 1.75 --------0.97 0.99 --
ING Financial Markets 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.70 1.60 1.40 1.01 0.99 0.92
Moody's Analytics 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.01 2.26 2.46 0.96 0.92 0.85
Nomura Securities ------------1.17 1.16 1.13
Northern Trust 1.25 1.75 1.75 1.20 1.30 1.40 0.99 1.01 0.96
Oxford Economics 0.63 1.38 1.50 1.26 1.40 1.30 0.99 0.99 0.99
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------1.02 1.04 0.99
Scotiabank ------------1.01 0.98 0.95
TS Lombard 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.25 0.50 0.25 0.97 0.97 0.97
Wells Fargo 1.25 1.75 1.75 ------------
November Consensus 1.09 1.45 1.42 1.48 1.41 1.36 1.01 1.01 0.97
High 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.01 2.26 2.46 1.17 1.16 1.13
Low 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.20 0.50 0.25 0.96 0.92 0.85
Last Months Avg.0.56 0.95 1.13 1.13 1.40 1.55 1.01 1.02 1.00
Canada
O/N MMkt Financing Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %C$ per US$Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.Barclays 3.75 3.75 --------1.30 1.29 --BMO Capital Markets 4.25 4.25 4.25 3.50 3.45 3.40 1.40 1.38 1.34ING Financial Markets 4.50 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 1.37 1.34 1.24Moody's Analytics 3.75 4.43 4.50 3.97 4.71 4.84 1.33 1.31 1.27
Nomura Securities ------------1.40 1.39 1.36
Northern Trust 4.50 4.50 4.50 3.40 3.30 3.20 1.37 1.40 1.30
Oxford Economics 3.91 4.25 4.25 3.38 3.59 3.38 1.38 1.39 1.39
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------1.37 1.39 1.36
Scotiabank ------------1.35 1.35 1.30
TS Lombard 5.50 4.25 3.75 3.55 2.80 2.55 1.35 1.35 1.35
Wells Fargo 4.00 4.25 4.25 3.55 3.50 3.30 ------
November Consensus 4.27 4.27 4.21 3.55 3.48 3.31 1.36 1.36 1.32
High 5.50 4.50 4.50 3.97 4.71 4.84 1.40 1.40 1.39
Low 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.38 2.80 2.50 1.30 1.29 1.24
Last Months Avg.3.55 3.78 3.79 3.27 3.27 3.21 1.31 1.31 1.28
NOVEMBER 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  11
Australia
Official Cash Rate 10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yield %US$ per A$Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.Barclays 3.10 3.10 --------0.68 0.69 --
ING Financial Markets 3.10 3.35 3.35 3.90 3.80 3.20 0.61 0.63 0.70
Moody's Analytics 2.85 3.10 3.10 4.50 4.71 4.78 0.70 0.72 0.74
Nomura Securities ------------0.65 0.66 0.72
Northern Trust 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.90 3.80 3.70 0.65 0.63 0.68
Oxford Economics 2.71 3.10 3.10 3.89 3.85 3.57 0.64 0.65 0.68
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------------0.64 0.64 0.63Scotiabank------------0.65 0.66 0.68
TS Lombard 4.55 3.30 2.80 4.00 3.25 3.00 0.65 0.65 0.65
Wells Fargo 3.10 3.10 3.10 ------------
November Consensus 3.22 3.16 3.09 4.04 3.88 3.65 0.65 0.66 0.69
High 4.55 3.35 3.35 4.50 4.71 4.78 0.70 0.72 0.74
Low 2.71 3.10 2.80 3.89 3.25 3.00 0.61 0.63 0.63
Last Months Avg.2.63 3.02 3.08 3.73 3.68 3.55 0.67 0.68 0.70
Euro area
Main Refinancing Rate US$ per EuroBlue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 2.00 2.50 --0.98 0.98 --
BMO Capital Markets 2.50 3.00 3.00 0.99 1.00 1.02
ING Financial Markets 2.50 2.75 2.75 0.92 0.92 1.00
Mizuho Research Institute 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.93 0.98 1.04
Moody's Analytics 1.79 2.67 3.00 0.97 0.99 1.05
Nomura Securities ------0.90 0.90 0.98
Northern Trust 2.50 3.00 3.00 0.96 0.94 1.02Oxford Economics 1.87 2.66 2.75 0.98 0.98 0.99
S&P Global Market Intelligence ------0.95 0.94 0.99
Scotiabank ------0.95 1.00 1.05
TS Lombard 1.25 0.75 0.50 1.00 0.85 1.00
Wells Fargo 2.00 2.50 2.50 ------
November Consensus 2.10 2.48 2.50 0.96 0.95 1.01High2.50 3.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.05
Low 1.25 0.75 0.50 0.90 0.85 0.98
Last Months Avg.1.68 2.11 2.25 0.97 0.98 1.03
Blue Chip Forecasters In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Barclays 1.90 2.00 --------------------
BMO Capital Markets 2.50 2.35 2.20 ------------------
ING Financial Markets 2.25 1.80 1.90 2.85 2.35 2.40 4.75 4.05 3.90 3.55 3.00 2.90
Mizuho Research Institute 2.50 2.50 2.60 ------------------
Moody's Analytics 2.18 2.43 2.65 2.73 2.91 3.00 4.38 4.50 4.27 3.64 3.68 3.69
Northern Trust 2.00 2.10 2.10 2.60 2.70 2.70 4.30 4.40 4.40 3.10 3.20 3.20
Oxford Economics 2.14 2.15 2.05 2.60 2.60 2.48 4.31 4.29 4.13 3.21 3.23 3.13
TS Lombard 2.25 1.50 1.25 2.60 1.85 1.60 3.55 2.80 2.55 3.00 2.25 2.00
Wells Fargo 2.40 2.50 2.45 ------------------
November Consensus 2.24 2.15 2.15 2.68 2.48 2.44 4.26 4.01 3.85 3.30 3.07 2.98
High 2.50 2.50 2.65 2.85 2.91 3.00 4.75 4.50 4.40 3.64 3.68 3.69
Low 1.90 1.50 1.25 2.60 1.85 1.60 3.55 2.80 2.55 3.00 2.25 2.00Last Months Avg.1.67 1.83 1.90 2.13 2.51 2.74 3.75 4.13 4.30 2.71 3.09 3.37
Spain
International Interest Rate And Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts
10 Yr. Gov't Bond Yields %Germany France Italy

Japan -3.95 -3.70 -3.56 -3.33 Japan -3.23 -4.49 -4.52 -4.51
United Kingdom -0.05 -0.20 -0.07 0.10 United Kingdom -0.88 -1.02 -0.97 -0.79
Switzerland -2.82 -2.45 -2.38 -2.19 Switzerland -2.63 -3.32 -3.15 -3.02
Canada -0.61 -0.39 -0.31 -0.25 Canada 0.13 -0.14 -0.32 -0.22
Australia -0.01 0.10 0.09 0.09 Australia -0.53 -1.19 -1.43 -1.34
Germany -1.79 -1.70 -1.64 -1.41 Euro area -1.88 -2.30 -2.12 -1.93
France -1.22 -1.26 -1.31 -1.12
Italy 0.55 0.32 0.22 0.29
Spain -0.68 -0.64 -0.72 -0.57
Current In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.
Consensus Forecasts Consensus Forecasts
10-year Bond Yields vs U.S. Yield Policy Rates vs U.S. Target Rate
Current In 3 Mo.In 6 Mo.In 12 Mo.

12  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Viewpoints:

September New Home Sales: Downward Trek Resumes In
September
Total new home sales fell to an annualized rate of 603,000 units
in September, a bit lower than our forecast of 618,000 units but
above the consensus forecast of 581,000 units. Not seasonally
adjusted sales, a/k/a the number that actually matters but no one
pays attention to, fell from 54,000 units in August to 49,000
units in September, matching our forecast. When Census report-
ed last month that new homes had jumped in August, our com-
ment was don’t expect it to last, as that jump was nothing more
than a break in a clear downward trend in sales, perhaps helped
along by a dip in mortgage rates in the first half of the month
(recall that new home sales are booked at the signing of the sales
contract). The September data show that to have been the case,
and with mortgage interest rates having pushed even higher, new
home sales will fall even further over the next few months. To
the extent that is the case, inventories of new homes for sale will
increase further, adding on to the bulge in inventories of spec
homes for sale seen over the past several months. That in turn
has led builders to be more aggressive with sales incentives, in-
cluding pricing. That is not, however, necessarily reflected in the
median new home sales price, which was up 13.9 percent year-
on-year in September, in contrast to the sharply decelerating
growth in existing home sales prices. At the September sales
rate, inventories of new homes for sale are equivalent to 9.2
months of sales, with units already under construction accounting
for the bulk of new homes for sale. The reality, however, is that
months supply is even higher, as Census reports the new home
sales data on a gross, not a net, basis, i.e., sales are booked at the
signing of the sales contract, but subsequent cancellations are not
accounted for. With cancellations having risen sharply in recent
months, sales are lower than Census has been reporting. Either
way, it will take some time to clear the backlog of inventories
but, given how chronically undersupplied the market has been
over the past several years, with enough flexibility on pricing
builders will find buyers for these units, particularly if mortgage
interest rates begin to drift lower.

With the 49,000 sales in September, the running 12-month total
of unadjusted sales fell to 684,000 units, the lowest such total
since April 2020, a month in which sales were obviously held
down by the onset of the pandemic. September sales are down
31.0 percent from the 71,000 sales in February, which will no
doubt be the high water mark for unadjusted sales in 2022. On a
year-to-date basis through September, sales were down 14.4 per-
cent nationally, with declines of 20.8 percent in the Midwest,
20.0 percent in the Northeast, 18.2 percent in the West, and 12.1
percent in the South (recall that the South region, which includes
both Florida and Texas, accounts for over one-half of all new
home sales).

Spec inventories of new homes for sale (units either completed
or under construction) have been little changed over the past
three months but are nonetheless up 26.6 percent year-on-year.
As we have discussed over the past several months, a shift in
tactics amongst builders in mid-2021 – starting units but not re-
leasing them for sale until construction was well underway –
resulted in a sharp increase in spec inventories driven by rising
numbers of units under construction when sales began to decline.
While builders have been more aggressive with incentives to
help move these units, slowly but steadily increasing completions
have led to completed units accounting for a larger share of in-
ventories of new homes for sale. That should, however, be put
into proper context, as it was only in June when the share of new
homes for sale accounted for by completed units fell to an all-
time low of 7.7 percent. So, at 11.8 percent in September, that
share is still abnormally low.

Completed or under construction, the bottom line is that builders
are clearly contending with an undesirably high level of invento-
ries. Still, over the past few months we’ve stated our view that
growth in spec inventories was likely nearing an inflection point.
For sure, even though spec inventories have flattened out over
the past three months, it’s too soon to conclude we’ve reached
such an inflection point, but even if not, we still do not expect
spec inventories to approach the levels seen in the previous cy-
cle. Our contention all along has been that there is considerable
unmet demand after years of the market being undersupplied,
and that completed new homes are lasting less than two months
on the market before being sold supports our view. It may be
more a question of how much (margin) pain builders are willing
to endure in order to move these units rather than whether there
are buyers out there.

Q3 2022 GDP: It Wasn’t That Bad Then, It’s Not That Good
Now
We like to think that we’re equal opportunity pointer outers of
noise in the economic data. For instance, when the BEA reported
quarterly contractions in real GDP in each of the first two quar-
ters of this year, our saying that underlying economic conditions
were not as bad as implied by the headline numbers wasn’t us
being unable to admit that the economy was in a recession. In-
stead, we were simply pointing out that large swings in invento-
ries and trade, as treated in GDP accounting, were resulting in
quarterly changes in real GDP that were painting a misleading
picture of underlying economic conditions, a point we’ve made
often over the years regardless of whether real GDP was reported
to be rising or falling. By the same token, us now pointing out
that underlying economic conditions are not as good as implied
by the reported increase – an annualized rate of 2.6 percent – in
real GDP in Q3 isn’t us unleashing our inner doom and gloom. It
is, instead, simply a nod to the outsized impact of a smaller trade
deficit in Q3 and the deterioration in real private domestic de-
mand over the past few quarters. It is the latter that, at present,
tells the much more meaningful story of where the U.S. economy
is, not the headline Q3 real GDP growth number.
The 2.6 percent annualized growth in Q3 was between what we
(2.9 percent) and the consensus (2.3 percent) expected. To our
earlier point, real private domestic demand, comprised of con-
sumer spending, business fixed investment, and residential fixed
investment, was basically flat inQ3, logging just a 0.1 percent
annualized increase. Real consumer spending rose at a 1.4 per-
cent rate, an increase entirely driven by growth in services spend-
ing as real consumer spending on goods contracted for a third
A Sampling of Views on the Economy, Financial Markets and Government Policy
Excerpted from Recent Reports Issued by our Blue Chip Panel Members and Others

NOVEMBER 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  13
consecutive quarter. Services spending, which accounts for
roughly two-thirds of all consumer spending, continued to grow
in Q3 but did so at a slower pace than in Q2.
Real business fixed investment in equipment and machinery ad-
vanced at an annual rate of 10.8 percent in Q3, while real outlays
on intellectual property products, the bulk of which is spending
on computer software and research and development, posted
annualized growth of 6.9 percent. A double-digit annualized de-
cline, the third in the past four quarters, in real spending on busi-
ness structures was a drag on total business fixed investment,
which on net contributed 0.49 percentage points to top-line real
GDP growth. Though business inventories rose further in Q3,
that they did so at a slower rate than in Q2 meant inventories
knocked 0.70 percentage points off top-line growth. Real resi-
dential fixed investment contracted at an annual rate of 26.4 per-
cent, knocking 1.37 percentage points off of top-line growth, a
testament to how higher mortgage interest rates have staggered
construction and sales of single family homes. A much narrower
trade deficit added 2.77 percentage points to top-line real GDP
growth. Real exports logged a second consecutive double-digit
annualized growth, while real imports fell sharply. Trade flows
have been significantly distorted since the onset of the pandemic,
reflecting clogged global supply chains, shipping backlogs, and
uneven demand.
As we do each quarter, we’ll note that the BEA’s initial estimate
of GDP in any quarter is based on highly incomplete source data,
particularly for inventories and trade. As such, BEA’s estimates
fill in the blanks and the estimate of GDP is refined as new
source data come in and prior data are revised. The biggest sur-
prise to us in the initial estimate is that business inventories are
reported to have risen by much less than we anticipated, which
accounts for most of our miss on our forecast of top-line growth.
The more relevant question isn’t what the Q3 GDP report means
for the FOMC – little to nothing – or whether it proves that the
economy isn’t in a recession – it doesn’t, just as the 1H 2022
data did not prove that the economy was in a recession. Instead,
the relevant question is what the Q3 GDP report tells us about
the state of the U.S. economy heading into the year’s final quar-
ter. As we’ve made clear, we see the meager gain, just 0.079
percent unrounded, in real private domestic demand as being the
most telling number. Real consumer spending on goods will fall
further, services spending will slow, there are signs that business
investment is wavering, and the housing market is reeling under
the weight of higher mortgage interest rates. Moreover, the full
impact of higher interest rates has yet to make its way through
the economy. As such, we expect real GDP growth to hover
around zero for the next few quarters.

Richard F. Moody (Regions Financial Corporation)

Employment Costs: Tip-Toeing in a Less Inflationary Direc-
tion

Summary. Labor cost growth in the third quarter eased at least
incrementally, with the Employment Cost Index rising 1.2% over
the three months ending in September. The softening in the ECI
in conjunction with the moderation in average hourly earnings
and the Atlanta Fed's median wage tracker should bolster the
Fed's confidence that a wage-price spiral has been kept at bay.
However, labor costs continue to rise at a lofty pace. The third
quarter's increase is consistent with a 5.1% annualized increase,
which we believe will keep the FOMC on track for historically
large rate hikes at its two remaining meetings this year.

To Get Out of a Hole, First Stop Digging. Inflationary pres-
sures emanating from the labor market are not getting worse, but
they are not fading quickly either. Employment costs for the third
quarter advanced 1.2%, only modestly slower than the prior two
quarters. Over the past year, the Employment Cost Index (ECI)
has risen 5.0%, a tick down from last quarter's one-year change,
but still well above the 2.9% peak registered in the past cycle.

The slight moderation in Q3 ECI is consistent with some slowing
in the separately sourced average hourly earnings data. The
FOMC prefers the ECI measure of labor costs, given its inclu-
sion of employer-provided benefits (31% of labor costs) as well
as fixed employment weights that control for compositional
changes in the workforce. Both measures moving the same direc-
tion should boost the Fed's confidence that labor cost pressures
are indeed beginning to ease.

Notably, private sector compensation growth slowed more sharp-
ly than the headline ECI. After increasing 1.5% in Q2, private
sector labor costs rose 1.1% on the back of slower hikes in wages
& salaries (up 1.2% versus 1.6% in Q2) and benefits (up 0.8%
vs. 1.3% in Q2). In contrast, compensation among state & local
government workers advanced at more than twice the pace of the
prior quarter, increasing 1.9% over the three months ending in
September. Wages & salaries among public sector workers
jumped by the most on record (+2.1%) last quarter, with similar-
ly large jumps for administrators, educators and healthcare em-
ployees. Benefit costs leapt by the most in 16 years for state &
local government workers. However, turning points in public
sector compensation growth have historically lagged the private
sector compensation trends, suggesting to us that the private sec-
tor developments are a better indication of labor cost trends go-
ing forward.

Looking ahead, we expect to see some further softening in labor
costs. Labor supply is improving at least incrementally at the
same time demand for workers has started cool. Hiring plans
moved down again in the third quarter, while fewer businesses
report plans to increase compensation. Lower turnover as the job
reshuffling brought on by the "Great Resignation" eases up also
points to more moderate compensation growth ahead.

That said, inflationary pressures stemming from the labor market
may be coming off the boil, but it will be some time before they
are sufficiently tepid for the FOMC. With labor costs growing at
a 5.1% annualized pace against a lackluster productivity back-
drop, companies still need to raise prices faster than 2% in order
to avoid taking a hit on profits. A still tight labor market is there-
fore likely to keep the Fed on its toes. We believe this report
does nothing to dissuade the FOMC from hiking the fed funds
rate by 75 bps at its meeting next week, but the modest direc-
tional improvement in labor cost growth could support a slightly-
less monster rise of 50 bps in December.

Sarah House and Michael Pugliese (Wells Fargo Economics)
14  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  NOVEMBER 1, 2022

Special Questions:

1. How much do you expect the FFR to be increased in total in: 2022? 425 bps 2023? 13 bps

2. a. What do you think is the neutral (long run) Fed funds rate? 2.63 %

b. What do you think will be the terminal fed funds rate (average of target range) in the current tightening cycle? 4.71%

c. When will the terminal rate be reached?
by the end 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Later
22%62%8%5%3%0%

3. a. When will the first fed funds rate cut occur?
Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Later
3%11%22%17%47% b. What will motivate the first FFR cut?

a sharp and persistent rise in the unemployment rate 31%
a meaningful and persistent slowing in inflation 66%
far more intense global financial instability 3%

4. a. Do you think that by removing monetary accommodation, major central banks will be successful in slowing inflation without
precipitating a recession?
Yes No
US 19%81%
euro area 0%100%
UK 0%100% b. If no, what type of recession do you project?
Mild Severe
US 97%3%
euro area 54%46%
UK 50%50%

5. What probability do you attach to a recession beginning in:
2022 2023
the US 36%61%
the euro area 61%68%
globally 46%60%

6. The US 10yr/2yr yield curve has been inverted since early July while the 10yr/3mo yield curve remains positively sloped. Which
curve do you think is a more reliable leading indicator of recession in the US? 10yr/2yr 39% 10yr/3mo 61%

NOVEMBER 1, 2022  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  15
Databank:
2022 Historical Data
Monthly Indicator Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Retail and Food Service Sales (a) 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.4 1.0 -0.4 0.4 0.0 ···· ···· ····
Auto & Light Truck Sales (b) 15.11 13.71 13.55 14.28 12.58 13.05 13.32 13.19 13.58 ···· ···· ····
Personal Income (a, current $) -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 ···· ···· ····
Personal Consumption (a, current $) 1.2 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 -0.2 0.6 0.6 ···· ···· ····
Consumer Credit (e) 3.9 9.1 12.1 8.3 7.1 10.4 6.8 8.3 ···· ···· ···· ····
Consumer Sentiment (U. of Mich.) 67.2 62.8 59.4 65.2 58.4 50.0 51.5 58.2 58.6 59.9 ···· ····
Household Employment (c) 1199 548 736 -353 321 -315 179 442 204 ···· ···· ····
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (c) 504 714 398 368 386 293 537 315 263 ···· ···· ····
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.5 ···· ···· ····
Average Hourly Earnings (All, cur. $) 31.56 31.60 31.75 31.86 31.98 32.11 32.27 32.36 32.46 ···· ···· ····
Average Workweek (All, hrs.) 34.6 34.7 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 ···· ···· ····
Industrial Production (d) 2.9 6.9 4.8 5.3 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.9 5.3 ···· ···· ····
Capacity Utilization (%) 78.9 79.4 79.8 80.2 80.0 79.8 80.3 80.1 80.3 ···· ···· ····
ISM Manufacturing Index (g) 57.6 58.6 57.1 55.4 56.1 53.0 52.8 52.8 50.9 ···· ···· ····
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index (g) 59.9 56.5 58.3 57.1 55.9 55.3 56.7 56.9 56.7 ···· ···· ····
Housing Starts (b) 1.666 1.777 1.716 1.805 1.562 1.575 1.377 1.566 1.439 ···· ···· ····
Housing Permits (b) 1.841 1.857 1.879 1.823 1.695 1.696 1.685 1.542 1.564 ···· ···· ····
New Home Sales (1-family, c) 831 790 707 619 636 571 543 677 603 ···· ···· ····
Construction Expenditures (a) 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 -0.6 -0.7 ···· ···· ···· ····
Consumer Price Index (nsa, d) 7.5 7.9 8.5 8.3 8.6 9.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 ···· ···· ····
CPI ex. Food and Energy (nsa, d) 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.6 ···· ···· ····
PCE Chain Price Index (d) 6.1 6.4 6.8 6.4 6.5 7.0 6.4 6.2 6.2 ···· ···· ····
Core PCE Chain Price Index (d) 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.9 5.1 ···· ···· ····
Producer Price Index (nsa, d) 10.1 10.4 11.7 11.2 11.1 11.3 9.8 8.7 8.5 ···· ···· ····
Durable Goods Orders (a) 3.1 -0.7 0.7 0.4 0.8 2.3 -0.1 0.2 0.4 ···· ···· ····
Leading Economic Indicators (a) -0.7 0.8 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.4 ···· ···· ····
Balance of Trade & Services (f) -88.0 -87.8 -106.9 -86.7 -85.9 -80.9 -70.5 -67.4 ···· ···· ···· ····
Federal Funds Rate (%) 0.08 0.08 0.20 0.33 0.77 1.21 1.68 2.33 2.56 ···· ···· ····
3-Mo. Treasury Bill Rate (%) 0.15 0.31 0.45 0.76 0.99 1.54 2.30 2.72 3.22 ···· ···· ····
10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 1.76 1.93 2.13 2.75 2.90 3.14 2.90 2.90 3.52 ···· ···· ····
2021 Historical Data
Monthly Indicator Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Retail and Food Service Sales (a) 5.5 -1.8 11.2 0.0 -0.5 1.0 -1.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.6 -1.6
Auto & Light Truck Sales (b) 16.82 15.65 17.72 18.17 16.69 15.28 14.62 13.06 12.31 13.22 13.10 12.72
Personal Income (a, current $) 9.6 -7.1 20.7 -13.1 -1.9 0.1 1.1 0.3 -0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3
Personal Consumption (a, current $) 2.5 -0.6 5.2 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.5 -0.2
Consumer Credit (e) 3.1 5.1 4.3 5.3 7.6 6.5 4.5 5.1 6.6 5.7 8.7 6.3
Consumer Sentiment (U. of Mich.) 79.0 76.8 84.9 88.3 82.9 85.5 81.2 70.3 72.8 71.7 67.4 70.6
Household Employment (c) 121 363 573 319 291 62 1092 463 639 428 1090 651
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (c) 520 710 704 263 447 557 689 517 424 677 647 588
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.9
Average Hourly Earnings (All, cur. $) 29.93 30.04 30.06 30.20 30.36 30.52 30.67 30.76 30.92 31.11 31.23 31.38
Average Workweek (All, hrs.) 35.0 34.6 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8
Industrial Production (d) -2.0 -5.4 1.0 16.6 15.6 9.2 5.9 4.9 3.9 4.7 5.0 3.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.4 74.2 76.3 76.6 77.3 77.7 78.2 78.2 77.4 78.6 79.0 78.7
ISM Manufacturing Index (g) 59.4 60.9 63.7 60.6 61.6 60.9 59.9 59.7 60.5 60.8 60.6 58.8
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index (g) 58.5 55.9 62.2 62.7 63.2 60.7 64.1 62.2 62.6 66.7 68.4 62.3
Housing Starts (b) 1.602 1.430 1.711 1.505 1.605 1.664 1.573 1.576 1.559 1.563 1.706 1.768
Housing Permits (b) 1.843 1.743 1.773 1.765 1.691 1.661 1.655 1.772 1.615 1.698 1.729 1.896
New Home Sales (1-family, c) 911 768 881 809 740 714 726 686 732 671 756 839
Construction Expenditures (a) 1.1 -0.9 2.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.3 -0.5 0.7 1.3 1.0
Consumer Price Index (nsa, d) 1.4 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.8 7.0
CPI ex. Food and Energy (nsa, d) 1.4 1.3 1.6 3.0 3.8 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.5
PCE Chain Price Index (d) 1.5 1.7 2.5 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.9 6.0
Core PCE Chain Price Index (d) 1.6 1.6 2.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.0
Producer Price Index (nsa, d) 1.6 3.0 4.1 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.9 10.0
Durable Goods Orders (a) 2.5 0.1 1.6 -2.0 2.1 1.8 0.4 1.6 -1.5 1.5 1.4 0.9
Leading Economic Indicators (a) 0.6 -0.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4
Balance of Trade & Services (f) -63.8 -65.3 -68.1 -65.7 -66.6 -71.4 -69.4 -71.4 -78.3 -68.2 -78.0 -78.9
Federal Funds Rate (%) 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
3-Mo. Treasury Bill Rate (%) 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06
10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 1.08 1.26 1.61 1.64 1.62 1.52 1.32 1.28 1.37 1.58 1.56 1.47
(a) month-over-month % change; (b) millions, saar; (c) month-over-month change, thousands; (d) year-over-year % change; (e) annualized % change; (f) $
billions; (g) level. Most series are subject to frequent government revisions. Use with care.
16  BLUE CHIP FINANCIAL FORECASTS  NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Calendar of Upcoming Economic Data Releases

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
November 1
JOLTS (Sep)
Construction (Sep)
ISM Manufacturing (Oct)
S&P Global Mfg PMI (Oct)
Texas Service Sector Outlook
Survey (Oct)
FOMC Meeting
2
BEA Auto Sales (Oct)
BEA Truck Sales (Oct)
ADP Employment Report (Oct)
Housing Vacancies (Q3)
FOMC Meeting
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Application

3
Productivity & Costs
(Q3 & Rev)
International Trade (Sep)
ISM Services PMI (Oct)
S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
Manufacturers' Shipments,
Inventories & Orders (Sep)
Challenger Employment Report
(Oct)
Weekly Jobless Claims

4
Employment Situation (Oct)
Public Debt (Oct)
Interest on Public Debt (Oct)
7
Treasury Auction Allotments
(Oct)
Consumer Credit (Sep)
Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q4)
8
NFIB (Oct)
Kansas City Fed Labor Market
Conditions Indicators (Oct)

9
Wholesale Trade (Sep)
Transportation Services Index
(Sep)
Kansas City Financial Stress
Index (Oct)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Application
10
CPI (Oct)
Real Earnings (Oct)
Cleveland Fed Median CPI (Oct)
Monthly Treasury Statement
(Oct)
Housing Affordability (Sep)
First Time Housing
Affordability (Q3)
Weekly Jobless Claims

11
Consumer Sentiment
(Nov, Preliminary)

VETERANS DAY
BOND MARKETS CLOSED
14
Survey of Professional
Forecasters (Q4)
OPEC Crude Oil Spot Prices
(Oct)
15
Producer Prices (Oct)
Empire State Mfg Survey (Nov)
16
Advance Retail Sales (Oct)
Import & Export Prices (Oct)
IP & Capacity Utilization (Oct)
MTIS (Sep)
Business Leaders Survey (Nov)
Home Builders (Nov)
TIC Data (Sep)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Application
17
New Residential Construction
(Oct)
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Business
Outlook Survey (Nov)
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing
Survey (Nov)
Weekly Jobless Claims
18
Retail E-Commerce Sales (Q3)
Advance Quarterly Services(Q3)
Existing Home Sales (Oct)
Composite Indexes (Oct)

21
Chicago Fed National Activity
Index (Oct)
22
CEW (Q2)
H.6 Money Stock (Oct)
Treas Auction Allotments(Nov)
Philadelphia Fed
Nonmanufacturing Business
Outlook Survey (Nov)
Richmond Fed Mfg &
Service Sector Surveys (Nov)
23
Advance Durable Goods (Oct)
New Residential Sales (Oct)
Strike Report (Nov)
Final Building Permits (Oct)
Consumer Sentiment
(Nov, Final)
S&P Global Flash PMI (Nov)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Application
Weekly Jobless Claims

24

THANKSGIVING DAY
ALL MARKETS CLOSED
25
28
Texas Manufacturing Outlook
Survey (Nov)
Steel Imports for Consumption
(Oct, Preliminary)
29
FHFA HPI (Sep & Q3)
Case-Shiller HPI (Sep)
Consumer Confidence (Nov)
Texas Service Sector
Outlook Survey (Nov)
30
ADP Employment Report (Nov)
GDP (Q3, 2nd Estimate)
Adv Trade & Inventories (Oct)
JOLTS (Oct)
Agricultural Prices (Oct)
Chicago PMI (Nov)
Pending Home Sales (Oct)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Application
December 1
Dallas Fed Trimmed-Mean
PCE (Oct)
Personal Income (Oct)
ISM Manufacturing (Nov)
S&P Global Mfg PMI (Nov)
Construction (Oct)
Challenger Employment Report
(Nov)
Weekly Jobless Claims

2
Employment Situation (Nov)
BEA Auto Sales (Nov)
BEA Truck Sales (Nov)

5
ISM Services PMI (Nov)
S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
MSIO (Oct)
NABE Outlook (Q4)

6
International Trade (Oct)
Public Debt (Nov)
Interest on Public Debt (Nov)
Kansas City Fed Labor Market
Conditions Indicators (Nov)

7
Productivity & Costs (Q3)
QFR (Q3)
Transportation Services Index
(Oct)
Consumer Credit (Oct)
Treasury Auction Allotments
(Nov)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks
Mortgage Application
8
QSS (Q3)
Weekly Jobless Claims
9
Producer Prices (Nov)
Wholesale Trade (Oct)
Consumer Sentiment
(Dec, Preliminary)
Financial Accounts (Q3)

.

BLUE CHIP FORECASTERS

CONTRIBUTORS TO DOMESTIC SURVEY

ACIMA Private Wealth, Richmond, VA
Ardavan Mobasheri
Action Economics, LLC, Boulder, CO
Michael Englund
AIG, New York, NY
Henry Mo and Jerry Cai
Amherst Pierpont Securities, Stamford, CT
Stephen Stanley
Bank of America, New York, NY
Ethan Harris
Bank of the West, SF, CA
Scott Anderson
Barclays, New York, NY
Michael Gapen
BMO Capital Markets Economics, Toronto, Canada
Douglas Porter
BNP Paribas North America, New York, NY
Andrew Schneider
Chan Economics, New York, NY
Anthony Chan
Chmura Economics & Analytics, Richmond, VA
Christine Chmura and Xiaobing Shuai
Comerica, Dallas, TX
Bill Adams
Daiwa Capital Markets America, New York, NY
Michael Moran
DePrince & Associates, Murfreesburo, TN
Albert E. DePrince Jr.
Economist Intelligence Unit, New York, NY
Leo Abruzzese and Jan Friederich
Ernst & Young Parthenon, New York, NY
Gregory Daco
Fannie Mae, Washington, DC
Douglas Duncan
Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA
Rajeev Dhawan
GLC Financial Economics, Providence, RI
Gary L. Ciminero
Goldman, Sachs & Co., New York, NY
Jan Hatzius
KPMG, New York, NY
Diane Swonk
ING Financial Markets, London, England
James Knightley
J.P. Morgan Chase, New York, NY
Bruce Kasman
Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P., Boston, MA
Brian Horrigan
MacroFin Analytics & Rutgers Business School, Wayne, NJ
Parul Jain
MacroPolicy Perspectives, New York, NY
Julia Coronado and Laura Rosner
Mizuho Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
Mio Uemura

Moody’s Analytics, West Chester, PA
Mark M. Zandi
Naroff Economic Advisors, Philadelphia, PA
Joel L. Naroff
NatWest Markets, Greenwich, CT
Michelle Girard and Kevin Cummins
Nomura Securities International, Inc., New York, NY
U.S. Economics
Northern Trust Company, Chicago, IL
Carl Tannenbaum
Oxford Economics, New York, NY
Kathy Bostjancic
PNC Financial Services Group, Pittsburgh, PA
Gus Faucher
RDQ Economics, New York, NY
John Ryding and Conrad de Quadros
Regions Financial Corporation, Birmingham, AL
Richard F. Moody
Scotiabank Group, Toronto, Canada
Jean-Francois Perrault
Societe Generale, New York, NY
Stephen W. Gallagher
S&P Global Market Intelligence, St. Louis, MO
Joel Prakken & Chris Varvares
S&P Global Ratings, New York, NY
Beth Ann Bovino
Swiss Re, New York, NY
Jerome Haegeli
ThruTheCycle.com, White Plains, NY
John Lonski
TS Lombard, London, UK
Steven Blitz
Via Nova Investment Management, Fredericksburg, VA
Alan Gayle
Wells Fargo, Charlotte, NC
Jay Bryson and Mark Vitner

CONTRIBUTORS TO INTERNATIONAL SURVEY

Barclays Capital, New York, NY
BMO Capital Markets Economics, Toronto, Canada
ING Financial Markets, London, England
Mizuho Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
Moody’s Analytics, West Chester, PA
Nomura Securities International, Inc., New York, NY
Northern Trust Company, Chicago, IL
Oxford Economics, Wayne, PA
Scotiabank Group, Toronto, Canada
S&P Global Market Intelligence, St. Louis, MO
S&P Global Ratings, New York, NY
TS Lombard, London, UK
Wells Fargo, Charlotte, NC