20190110Avista to Staff 11-21.pdf

Avista Corp.
1411 East Mission P.O. Box 3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-0500
Telephone [phone]
TollFree 800-727-9170
January 8,2019
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REC T IVED
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Corp,
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Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 W. Washington St.
Boise, ID 83720-0074
Attn: Diane Hanian
Re: Production Request of Commission Staff in Case No. AVU-G-I8-08
Dear Ms. Hanian,
Enclosed is Avista's responses to IPUC Staffs production requests in the above referenced
docket. Included in this mailing are the originol and two paper copies of Avista's response to
production requests: Staff 11-21. The electronic version of the responses were emailed on
01t08t20t9.
Also included is Avista's CONFIDENTIAL response to PR_llC. These responses contain
TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY or CONFIDENTIAL information and are separately
filed under IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and233, and Section 9-340D,Idaho Code. Due to their
voluminous nature, they are being provided in electronic format only, via thumb drive, under a
sealed separate envelope marked CONFIDENTIAL.
If there are any questions regarding the enclosed information, please contact Paul Kimball at
[phone] or via e-mail at [e-mail].
Sincerely,
Paul Kimball
Mgr., Compliance & Discovery
Enclosures
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-G-18-08
IPUC Staff
Production Request
Staff - l2
DATE PREPARED:
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
t212912018
N/A
Lynn Roy
Nexant,Inc.
[phone]
REQUEST:
On page 25 of Exhibit 2, Nexant explains that it created bins for residential and non-residential
programs in Washington/Idaho, and Natural gas programs in Washington. Please answer the
following questions:
a. Why was no natural gas bin created for Idaho?
b. Were Idaho customers included in Nexant's audit of the Company's Natural Gas
programs? If so, how many residential and non-residential customers were
included in Nexant's analysis?
c. Were Idaho customers included in Nexant's Billing Analysis of the Company's
Natural Gas programs? If so, how many residential and non-residential customers
were included in Nexant's analysis?
d. Were Idaho customers included in the surveys sent by Nexant to evaluate its natural
gas programs? If so, how many residential and non-residential customers were
included in Nexant's analysis?
RESPONSE:
Please note that it is assumed that Idaho Staff is referring to Exhibit l-Nexant's Idaho
2016-2017 Natural Gas Impact Evaluation, and not Exhibit 2-Avista's 2017 Idaho Annual
Conservation Report. The below response has been provided by Avista's 3'd party EM&V
evaluator, Nexant, Inc.:
a. "Idaho" was inadvertently left out of the text. Idaho was included in the natural gas sampling
bin.
b. Yes, Idaho customers were included in the residential and non-residential audit of the
Company's Natural Gas programs. The findings from the audit activities of customers in
Idaho and Washington are rolled up together to determine the realization rate for each
program. Total customers sampled in total, between WA and ID customers, are included in
Tables 3-3 and3-4.
c. Yes, Idaho customers were included in the residential and non-residential billing analysis of
the Company's Natural Gas programs. The findings from the billing analysis activities of
customers in Idaho and Washington are rolled up together to determine the realization rate for
each program.
d. Yes, Idaho customers were included in the residential and non-residential surveys of the
Company's Natural Gas programs. The findings from the surveys of customers in Idaho and
Washington are rolled up together and are not reported separately by state. Total customers
sampled in total between WA and ID customers are included in Tables 3-3 and 3-4.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-G-18-08
IPUC Staff
Production Request
Staff- 13
DATE PREPARED: 12129/2018WITNESS: N/A
RESPONDER: Lynn Roy
DEPARTMENT: Nexant, Inc.
TELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
On pages 25 and 26 of Exhibit 2, Nexant explains how it determined sample sizes for its Electrical
residential and non-residential programs; however, it does not explain how it determined sample
sizes for its natural gas programs. Please explain how sample sizes were calculated for the
Company's natural gas programs.
RESPONSE:
Please note that it is assumed that Idaho Staff is referring to Exhibit l-Nexant's Idaho
2016-2017 Natural Gas Impact Evaluation, and not Exhibit 2-Avista's 2017 Idaho Annual
Conservation Report. The below response has been provided by Avista's 3'd party EM&V
evaluator, Nexant, Inc.:
Sample sizes for the natural gas programs were determined in the same manner as for the electric
programs. The text on pages 25 and 26 applies to the natural gas programs.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-G-18-08
IPUC Staff
Production Request
Staff- 14
DATE PREPARED: 1212912018WITNESS: N/A
RESPONDER: Lynn Roy
DEPARTMENT: Nexant, Inc.
TELEPHONE: [phone]
Exhibit l, Equation 3-2 includes the variables "event" and the interaction term, "treat X event."
Neither of these is described in Table 3-5. Please provide a description for these variables. Also,
please explain why the variable "treat" is not included in the model.
RESPONSE:
The below response has been provided by Avista's 3'dparty EM&V evaluator, Nexant, Inc.
Equation 3-2 contains a typo. The correct regression specification is in the revised section below
and highlighted in yellow. The word "event" has been replaced with the term "post", which is the
post-treatment indicator variable. The "treatment" variable is part of an interaction term
("treatXpost") which is equal to 1 for the treatment group during the post-treatment period, and 0
otherwise. In other words, the term is equal to 0 at all time periods for the control group and during
the pre-treatment period for the treatment group. The methods described here do not apply to
Nexant's evaluation of Oracle's Home Energy Reports program, so the reference to that program
is stricken.
3.4.4.2 Ex Post Estimation Method - Revised with edits indicated in yellow
After the comparison groups for treatment customers were selected and validated, energy impacts
were estimated using a difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology for the Shell, HVAC, and
FuelEfficiencyprogramS(theLowIncomeprogramuseda
participant prelpost billing analysis, see Section 3.4.4.3).Impacts are estimated as the difference in
average consumption between treatment and comparison customers in each month, with the slight
difference between the two groups on the pre-treatment year removed. This calculation controls
for residual differences in load between the groups that are not eliminated through the matching
process, thus reducing bias.
The DiD analysis can be done by hand using simple averages or by using panel regression
analysis. Customer fixed effects regression analysis allows each customer's mean consumption to
be modeled separately, which reduces the standard error of the impact estimates without changing
their magnitude. Additionally, panel regression easily facilitates calculation of standard elrors,
conhdence intervals, and significance tests for load impact estimates that correctly account for the
correlation in customer loads over time.
+ The Oraele Heme Ene€
REQUEST:
DescriptionVariable
The model specification for estimating load impacts is shown in Equation 0-1 and Table 0-1
provides detail for each model variable. The model was estimated separately for each month.
Equation 0-l: Monthly Energy Savings Model Specification
daily-consurnptrlon, =fi +ypost*FEeatl(post, * u,* s
Table 0-1: Description of Energy Savings Model Regression Variables
daily _c o tt sttttrp tio n,Per customer consumption (kWh or therms) for customer i
Mean consumption for all customers
The coefficient on the post-treatment indicator variable
post Equal to 1 for the post-treatment period and 0 for the same month in 2015
DiD estimator of the treatment effect (the impact in kWh or therms)
treatXpost lnteraction of treatment and post variables, equal to 1 for the post-treatment
period for participants and 0 otherwise
72i The customer fixed effects variable for customer i
d The error term
In Equation 0-1 the variable darltr_consunrpftoni equals electricity or gas consumption during
the time period of interest, which would be each month of the post-treatment period. The index i
refers to each individual customer. The estimating database contained electricity and gas
consumption data during the pre- and post-treatment periods for both treatment and matched
comparison group customers. The variable post is equal to I for months after installation and a
value of 0 for the same month in 201 5. The treatXposl term is the interaction of treat and post and
its coefficient F is a differences-in-differences estimator of the treatment effect that makes use of
the pre-treatment data. The primary parameter of interest is f, which provides the estimated
energy impact of the rebate progrirms during the relevant period. The parameter a is equal to mean
daily consumption for each customer for the relevant time period (e.g., monthly). The vr term is the
customer fixed effects variable that controls for unobserved factors that are time-invariant and
unique to each customer.
This was estimated for each month of 2016 and 2017 separately. Impacts are estimated on a
per-customer basis. Reference consumption is equal to observed treatment consumption plus the
estimated impact.
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AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-G-18-08
IPUC Staff
Production Request
Staff- l5
DATE PREPARED:
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
1212912018
N/A
Amber Gifford
Energy Efficiency
(s0e) 49s-28e6
REQUEST:
Exhibit 1, Section 4.8 indicates that the Company's nonresidential realization rates range from
42%o (Energy Smart Grocer) to 142o/o (Commercial Insulation). What steps is the Company taking
to improve the accuracy of the methodologies used to estimate nonresidential program savings?
RESPONSE:
Avista adaptively manages its programs to improve the accuracy of savings by incorporating the
findings and recommendations presented by their 3'd party EM&V evaluator - specifically those
items outlined in the Impact Evaluation Reports. Avista also engages regularly with the Regional
Technical Forum (RTF) and checks with other sources of Technical Reference Manuals (TRMs) to
best determine estimated savings values for its programs. In addition, Avista's in-house
engineering staff is vital in calculating estimated savings when there is no other source available.
With respect to the Energy Smart Grocer (ESG) program specifically, the Company is bringing all
of the offerings previously being delivered through the ESG program in-house, with the exception
of refrigeration engineering specialties, which Avista will take care of through a Request for
Proposal (RFP) for professional services. Historically, the ESG program had been administered
by a third party, ClearResult.
With respect to the Commercial Insulation program, Avista has not made an adjustment to its unit
energy savings based on Nexant's evaluation. The rationale for not making an adjustment to the
savings values was that the sample size from which the realization rate was derived was arguably
too small to be statistically valid. Our current EM&V vendor, Cadmus, has provided the Company
with its 2018 semiannual report, which shows a l00Yo realization rate for Commercial Insulation.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-G-18-08
IPUC Staff
Production Request
Staff- 16
DATE PREPARED: 1212912018WITNESS: N/A
RESPONDER: Amber Gifford
DEPARTMENT: Energy Efficiency
TELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
Exhibit l, Section 5.8 indicates that the Company's residential realization rates range from2SYo
(Low Income Conservation) to 212% (Energy Star Homes). What steps is the Company taking to
improve the accuracy of the methodologies used to estimate residential program savings?
RESPONSE:
Avista adaptively manages its programs to improve the accuracy of savings by incorporating the
findings and recommendations presented by their 3'o party EM&V evaluator - specifically those
items outlined in the Impact Evaluation Reports. Avista also engages regularly with the Regional
Technical Forum (RTF) and checks with other sources of Technical Reference Manuals (TRMs) to
best determine estimated savings values for its programs. In addition, Avista's in-house
engineering staff is vital in calculating estimated savings when there is no other source available.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-G-18-08
IPUC Staff
Production Request
Staff - 17
DATE PREPARED
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
r2t29t2018
N/A
Lynn Roy
Nexant,Inc.
(303) 7e2-8668
REQUEST:
Exhibit l, Section 4.7.3.4 discusses the "Program-stipulated electric energy (Therms) saved per
unit installed." Is this wording correct? If so, please explain how electric energy savings are
considered in the Company's natural gas efficiency program.
RESPONSE:
The below response has been provided by Avista's 3'd party EM&V evaluator, Nexant, Inc.
The text contains an error. The text should read "Program-stipulated natural gas energy (Therms)
saved per unit installed".
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-G-18-08
IPUC Staff
Production Request
Staff- l8
DATE PREPARED
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
t2/2912018
N/A
Lynn Roy
Nexant, Inc.
(303) 7e2-8668
REQUEST:
Exhibit 1, Section 4.7.4 (Findings and Recommendations) states, "The gross verified electric
energy savings for the sample of reviewed projects for the Small Business program resulted in a
realization rate of 106% (Table 4-30)." Given that this refers to savings of a gas DSM program, is
this wording regarding electric energy savings correct? If so, please explain how electric energy
savings are considered in the Company's natural gas efficiency program.
RESPONSE:
The below response has been provided by Avista's 3'd pa(y EM&V evaluator, Nexant, Inc.:
The text contains an error. The text should read "The gross verified natural gas savings for the
sample of reviewed projects for the Small Business program resulted in arealization rate of l06oh
(Table 4-30)."
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO
CASE NO: AVU-G-I8-08
REQUESTER: IPUC StaffTYPE: Production Request
REQUESTNO.: Staff- 19
DATE PREPARED
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
t212912018
NiA
Amber Gifford
Energy Efficiency
(s09) 49s-2896
REQUEST:
Please confirm that the total savings of -118,905 Therms reported in Exhibit l, Table 5-13
represents an increase in natural gas consumption.
RESPONSE:
The -118,905 therms as reported in Exhibit l, Table 5-13 does represent an increase in natural gas
consumption. These negative therms reflect the impact to natural gas savings due to the
Company's Fuel Efficiency Program wherein customers convert from electric to natural gas space
and water heating, which results in an increase in the number of therms of natural gas consumed by
customers.
Please note that the -118,905 therms reflects 2017 reported savings. Table 5-15 in Exhibit 1
reflects 2017 gross verified savings of -82,948 therms.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO
CASE NO: AVU-G-I8-08
REQUESTER: IPUC StaffTYPE: Production Request
REQUEST NO.: Staff - 20
DATE PREPARED:
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
1212912018
N/A
Amber Gifford
Energy Efficiency
(s09) 49s-2896
REQUEST:
Are the fuel efficiency savings reported in Exhibit l, Table 5-13, corrected for the effects of
weather? If so, please explain how this was done.
RESPONSE:
Table 5-13 simply reflects Avista's reported increase in natural gas consumption by residential
customers due to the impact of the Company's Fuel Efficiency Program and is not corrected for the
effects of weather.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-G-18-08
IPUC Staff
Production Request
Staff - 21
DATE PREPARED: 1212912018WITNESS: N/A
RESPONDER: Amber Gifford
DEPARTMENT: Energy Efficiency
TELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
Please provide the technical manual(s) used to estimate DSM energy efficiency savings for 2016
and20l7.
RESPONSE:
Please see StafLPR_2I - Attachment A for 2016 unit energy savings and Staff PR_21 -
Attachment B for unit energy savings.
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