20121015Avista to Staff 1-5.pdf

Jean Jewell
From: Kimball, Paul [Paul. Kimball©avistacorp.com ]
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2012 2:53 PM
To: Karl Klein; Jean Jewell
Subject: Avista's Responses to IPUC Staff Production Requests AVU-G-12-8
Attachments: Staff PR - Attachment A.xls; Staff_PR_01 .doc; Staff—PR-02 - Attachment A.xlsx;
Staff_ PR 02.doc; Staff —PR 03.doc; Staff PR 05.doc; Staff PR 04.doc
October 15, 2012
- c Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 W Washington St
Boise, ID 83720-5918 -
Attn: Karl I Klein
Production Request of the Commission Staff in Case No AVU-G-12-08
Attached is Avista's response in connection to Staff production requests in the above refereiced dtket.
Included in this email is Avista's response to the following Production Request: 1 - 5.
If there are any questions regarding the attached information, please contact me at [phone] or via e-mail
at [e-mail]
Thank you,
Paul Kimball
Senior Regulatory Analyst
State & Federal Regulation
Avista Corporation
1411 E. Mission Ave. Box 3727
Spokane, WA 99220-3727
[phone] direct
[phone] cell
[e-mail]
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO
CASE NO: AVU-G-12-8
REQUESTER: IPUC
TYPE: Production Request
REQUEST NO.: Staff-01
DATE PREPARED:
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
10/01/2012
N/A
Kelly Irvine
Natural Gas Resources
[phone]
REQUEST:
Regarding Appendix 3.3 WA/ID Base Coefficient Calculation (page 40 of the Appendices), please
provide the following tables:
a.Average Actual Demand by Class
b.Average Actual Customer Count by Class
c.Base Coefficients.
Please provide in electronic format with all formulas intact.
RESPONSE:
Please see Staff PR 01 -Attachment A.
Appendix 3.3 - Demand Coefficients
January February March April May June July August September October November December
I/ Average of DEC JAN FEB heat coefficients
Staff_PR01 -Attachment Axis Page 1 of 1
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO DATE PREPARED: 10/01/2012
CASE NO: AVU-G-12-8 WITNESS: N/A
REQUESTER: IPUC RESPONDER: Kelly Irvine
TYPE: Production Request DEPARTMENT: Natural Gas Resources
REQUEST NO.: Staff-02 TELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
Please send the data used to derive the WA/ID regression statistics found in Appendix 3.3 (page 41
of Appendices). Please provide in electronic format.
RESPONSE:
Please see Staff _PR 02 - Attachment A.
2 Year
Wa/Id GIN f Residential
Wa/Id GTN I Commercial
Wa/Id GTN I Ind FirmSale
Roseburg I Residential
Roseburg Commercial
Roseburg I Ind FirmSale
Roseburg I Transport
Medford NWP I Residential
Medford NWP Commercial
Medford NWP Ind FirmSale
La Grande I Residential
La Grande I Commercial
La Grande I Ind FirmSale
La Grande I Transport
11am Falls Residential
KIam Falls I Commercial
KIam Falls I Ind FirmSale
KIam Falls J Transport
Wa/Id NWP I Residential
Wa/Id NWP f Commercial
Wa/Id NWP Ind FirmSale
Medford GTN I Residential
Medford GTN I Commercial
Medford GIN I Ind FirmSale
Medford GTN I Transport
Wa/Id Both Residential
Wa/Id Both I Commercial
Wa/Id Both I Ind FirmSale
Wa/Id Both Transport
3 Year
Group
Nov-11
0.008774087
0.04287308
0.178925712
0.008486228
0.036873163
1.581557558
Dec-11
0.009863653
0.050088127
0.143417491
0.010043809
0.044522004
1.166637493
Jan-12
0.0098 18 189
0.049403831
0.11545407
0.010087806
0.040390189
0.833145177
0.009818189
0.049403831
0.11545407
0.010249396
0.039532163
0
Feb-12
0.00887057
0.044273785
0.10258779
0.009910946
0.039257211
0.899149141
0.00979417
0.040970076
0
0.007893255
0.041114085
0
0.00887057
0.044273785
0.10258779
0.00979417
0.040970076
0
Mar-12
0.008639801
0.041828776
0.077120198
0.009425033
0.038230214
0.837669192
0.009804776
0.03489062
0
0.007848894
0.036383987
0
0.008639801
0.041828776
0.077120198
0.009804776
0.03489062
0
Apr-12
0.007844567
0.035885106
0.063390999
0.008479853
0.030255276
0.027990288
0.009036321
0.027465589
0
0.007 139885
0.030627231
0
0.007844567
0.035885106
0.063390999
0.009036321
0.027465589
0
May-12
0.0056353
0.023949054
0.050773951
0.006973721
0.020350199
0.0152799
0.006840492
0.022950454
0
0.00546792
0.021506874
0
0.0056353
0.023949054
0.050773951
0.006840492
0.022950454
C
0.008774087 0.009863653
0.04287308 0.050088127
0.178925712 0.143417491
0.009000404 0.010440368
0.039339868 0.041822597
0 0
0.009000404 0.010440368 0.010249396
0.039339868 0.041822597 0.039532163
0 0 0
0.007898422 0.008783538 0.00875414
0.036579385 0.041437827 0.042981192
0 0 0
0.006908636 0.00806908 0.008155816 0.007514022 0.007458501 0.006273175 0.004668191
0.028609611 0.031599789 0.031022316 0.030095299 0.027472071 0.021219656 0.014857044
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.008774087 0.009863653 0.009818189 0.00887057 0.008639801 0.007844567 0.0056353
0.04287308 0.050088127 0.049403831 0.044273785 0.041828776 0.035885106 0.023949054
0.178925712 0.143417491 0.11545407 0.10258779 0.077120198 0.063390999 0.050773951
Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12
Staff-PR-02 - Attachment A (2).xlsx SENDOUT_INPUTS Page 1 of 6
0.009844497
0.049978045
0.129008542
0.010387258
0.040461844
0
0.008975558
0.045348934
0.115247756
0.010081776
0.040622406
0
0.008869664
0.043362661
0.0948062
0.010032583
0.036424152
0
0.008028585
0.037282468
0.084500696
0.008932892
0.029252135
0
0.005689813
0.024075694
0.041487475
0.006663115
0.022165633
0
Wa/Id GTN I Residential
Wa/Id GIN I Commercial
Wa/Id GIN I Ind FirmSale
Roseburg I Residential
Roseburg I Commercial
Roseburg I Ind FirmSale
Roseburg I Transport
Medford NWP I Residential
Medford NWP I Commercial
Medford NWP f Ind FirmSale
La Grande I Residential
La Grande I Commercial
La Grande I Ind FirmSale
La Grande I Transport
KIam Falls I Residential
Kiam Falls I Commercial
KIam Falls Ind FirmSale
Kiam Falls I Transport
Wa/Id NWP I Residential
Wa/Id NWP f Commercial
Wa/Id NWP I Ind FirmSale
Medford GTN I Residential
Medford GTN I Commercial
Medford GIN I Ind FirmSale
Medford GIN I Transport
Wa/Id Both I Residential
Wa/Id Both I Commercial
Wa/Id Both I Ind FirmSale
Wa/Id Both I Transport
5 Year
Group
Wa/Id GIN I Residential
0.008695213 0.009962245 0.009844497 0.008975558 0.008869664 0.008028585 0.005689813
0.042430755 0.050434673 0.049978045 0.045348934 0.0433 62 661 0.037282468 0.024075694

0.164946307 0.170179963 0.129008542 0.115247756 0.0948062 0.084500696 0.041487475
0.00847663 0.010124057 0.010207961 0.01018421 0.00951694 0.008513573 0.006722065
0.036871328 0.044178165 0.041387999 0.039173031 0.037761981 0.031762565 0.022073058
1.166406843 0.839548803 0.560088307 0.639564834 0.609581699 1.794675998 0.050433553
0.009031279 0.010507109 0.010387258 0.010081776 0.010032583 0.008932892 0.006663115
0.039079527 0.04203632 0.040461844 0.040622406 0.036424152 0.029252135 0.022165633
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.007776698 0.008920865 0.008773593 0.008135275 0.00806009 0.007466051 0.005424053
0.034627962 0.040280918 0.042444919 0.04054651 0.03703053 0.031324856 0.021079166
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.0068389 0.007860587 0.008035196 0.007601401 0.007340407 0.006311879 0.004454224
0.028057996 0.031164693 0.031882962 0.030028158 0.027044273 0.021792485 0.013739514
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.008695213 0.009962245
0.042430755 0.050434673
0.164946307 0.170179963
0.009031279 0.010507109
0.039079527 0.04203632
0 0
0.008695213 0.009962245 0.009844497 0.008975558 0.008869664 0.008028585 0.005689813
0.042430755 0.050434673 0.049978045 0.045348934 0.043362661 0.037282468 0.024075694

0.164946307 0.170179963 0.129008542 0.115247756 0.0948062 0.084500696 0.041487475
Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12

0.008917104 0.009936686 0.009971556 0.009195791 0.008893915 0.007725574 0.0054732
Staff-PR-02 - Attachment A (2).xlsx SENDOUT_INPUTS Page 2 of 6
0.0108535
0.042649504
0
0.009314621
0.043385148
0
0.010392239
0.04147792
0
0.00858034
0.04102 1626
0
0.009883234
0.036731506
0
0.008255801
0.036785783
0
0.009009387
0.031124593
0
0.007376929
0.030306902
0
0.006677531
0.022211433
C
0.005345856
0.020549636
0
0.00812199 0.007464475 0.007148889 0.006363793 0.004493338
0.03338311 0.030193656 0.026720287 0.021971672 0.013532199
0 0 0 0 0
0.009971556
0.051386503
0.163060906
0.0108535
0.042649504
0
0.009195791 0.008893915
0.046965149 0.043325551
0.137456077 0.110348886
0.010392239 0.009883234
0.04147792 0.036731506
0 0
0.007725574
0.035851704
0.07527455
0.009009387
0.031124593
0
0.0054732
0.022926767
0.029972081
0.006677531
0.022211433
0
0.009971556 0.009195791 0.008893915 0.007725574 0.0054732
0.051386503 0.046965149 0.043325551 0.035851704 0.022926767
0.163060906 0.137456077 0.110348886 0.07527455 0.029972081
Wa/Id GIN I Commercial
Wa/Id GIN I Ind FirmSale
Roseburg I Residential
Roseburg I Commercial
Roseburg I Ind FirmSale
Roseburg Transport
Medford NWP I Residential
Medford NWP I Commercial
Medford NWP Ind FirmSale
La Grande J Residential
La Grande I Commercial
La Grande Ind FirmSale
La Grande I Transport
KIam Falls Residential
Klam Falls f Commercial
KIam Falls Ind FirmSale
KIam Falls I Transport
Wa/Id NWP I Residential
Wa/Id NWP I Commercial
Wa/Id NWP J Ind FirmSale
Medford GIN I Residential
Medford GIN I Commercial
Medford GTN I Ind FirmSale
Medford GIN I Transport
Wa/Id Both Residential
Wa/Id Both Commercial
Wa/Id Both I Ind FirmSale
Wa/Id Both J Transport
0.009280494 0.010732513
0.040082872 0.042840143
0 0
0.008339755 0.00918645
0.035764912 0.040554323
0 0
0.006990474 0.007912934
0.02897859 0.032051972
0 0
0.008917104 0.009936686
0.043662256 0.049874816
0.163246862 0.176101805
0.009280494 0.010732513
0.040082872 0.042840143
0 0
0.008917104 0.009936686
0.043662256 0.049874816
0.163246862 0.176101805
0.043662256 0.049874816 0.051386503 0.046965149 0.043325551 0.035851704 0.022926767
0.163246862 0.176101805 0.163060906 0.137456077 0.110348886 0.07527455 0.029972081
0.0089967 0.010522821 0.010709655 0.010654795 0.009689781 0.00882545 0.007013222
0.039774604 0.045169176 0.045126689 0.041274656 0.038347453 0.033173101 0.025229011
0.928955211 0.583731148 0.40659574 0.527838928 0.534582514 3.399800406 0.106390406
Staff-PR-02 - Attachment A (2).xlsx SENDOUT_INPUTS Page 3 of 6

Jun-12 Jul-12
0.003236648 0.001418976
0.014058838 0.006852795
0.040271059 0.026588184
0.004119456 0
0.007933824 0.001488227
0 5.647634092
Aug-12
0.000933082
0.007834899
0.15069464
0
0.002279629
6.895291608
Sep-12 Oct-12
0.002466234 0.006344523
0.018173981 0.035892967
0.178945446 0.256833176
0.000959185 0.003875912
0.016376603 0.020868636
5.033417162 1.887167231
Nov-12 Dec-12
0.004262923
0.010752994
0
0.002615727
0.009617667
0
0.002215955
0.002272603
0
0.003 167656 0.000630374
0.016019782 0.007968575
0 0
0.000180766 0.010223629
0.010959922 0.076284855
0 0
0.00248093 0.006119302
0.019184285 0.035631918
0 0
0.000140513 0.002900546
0.004622604 0.018917053
0 0
0.000254513 0.000443641 0.001317964 0.004339423
0.000338429 0.00463228 0.007707914 0.021750728
0 0 0 0
0.003236648
0.014058838
0.040271059
0.004262923
0.010752994
0
0.001418976 0.000933082
0.006852795 0.007834899
0.026588184 0.15069464
0.003167656 0.000630374
0.016019782 0.007968575
0 0
0.002466234
0.018173981
0.178945446
0.00248093
0.019184285
0
0.006344523
0.035892967
0.256833176
0.006119302
0.035631918
0
0.003236648 0.001418976 0.000933082 0.002466234 0.006344523
0.014058838 0.006852795 0.007834899 0.018173981 0.035892967
0.040271059 0.026588184 0.15069464 0.178945446 0.256833176
Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12
Staff-PR-02 - Attachment A (2).xlsx SENDOUT_INPUTS Page 4 of 6
0.002903862
0.021345382
0
0.000742044
0.008149919
0
0.006473882
0.038324684
0
0.003046619
0.018321714
0
0.001305856 0.004338331
0.008292339 0.023550893
0 0
0.003686459 0.001173698
0.016816525 0.004929633
0.055783015 0.044625063
0.00503812 0.000614775
0.010826 0.003070018
0.307866797 3.765089394
0.000826461
0.007712715
0.132057167
4.93693E-05
0.002933236
4.759542558
0.00238834 0.006412228
0.01978081 0.036017179
0.198660758 0.283820092
0.001527313 0.004755629
0.020028191 0.027221003
4.064707745 1.47662742
0.004633661 0.002111771 0.000941211
0.014469459 0.010679854 0.009588349
0 0 0
0.003396429 0.000489695 0.010525255
0.012466839 0.009405361 0.076632518
0 0 0
0.002572739 0.000169675 0.000560013
0.004543931 0.00022562 0.006201806
0 0 0
0.003686459
0.016816525
0.055783015
0.004633661
0.014469459
0
0.001173698
0.004929633
0. 04462 5063
0.002111771
0.010679854
0
0.000826461
0.007712715
0.132057167
0.000941211
0.009588349
0
0.00238834 0.006412228
0.01978081 0.036017179
0.198660758 0.283820092
0.002903862 0.006473882
0.021345382 0.038324684
0 0
0.003686459 0.001173698 0.000826461 0.00238834 0.006412228
0.016816525 0.004929633 0.007712715 0.01978081 0.036017179
0.055783015 0.044625063 0.132057167 0.198660758 0.283820092
Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12
0.003547188 0.000810258 0.000940467 0.002480541 0.006553968
Staff-PR-02 - Attachment A (2).xlsx SENDOUT_INPUTS Page 5 of 6
0.015300194 0.003055603 0.009202847 0.021576632 0.0366818
0.035508376 0.030425963 0.124324722 0.206144392 0.301992317
0.006190533 0.00091849 0.000292351 0.002009007 0.005786017
0.010888881 0.003710617 0.006422107 0.021450003 0.034100911
0.497882165 2.259053637 6.480937934 2.893306694 1.207744563
0.004700794 0.001267062
0.014650086 0.006407913
0 0
0.00396093 0.001023495
0.013793933 0.008756069
0 0
0.000564727
0.005753009
0
0.010951334
0.077143601
0
0.003047621 0.006560697
0.021576415 0.039214621
0 0
0.000793156 0.003437031
0.008513077 0.019099468
0 0
0.002655451 0.000449834 0.000430013 0.001794192 0.004547713
0.004296613 0.001291212 0.006028015 0.012167122 0.026461189
0 0 0 0 0
0.003547188
0.015300194
0.035508376
0.004700794
0.014650086
0
0.000810258
0.003055603
0.030425963
0.001267062
0.006407913
0
0.000940467
0.009202847
0.124324722
0.000564727
0.005753009
0
0.002480541
0.021576632
0.206144392
0.003047621
0.021576415
0
0.006553968
0.0366818
0.301992317
0.006560697
0.039214621
0
0.003547188 0.000810258 0.000940467 0.002480541 0.006553968
0.015300194 0.003055603 0.009202847 0.021576632 0.0366818
0.035508376 0.030425963 0.124324722 0.206144392 0.301992317
Staff-PR-02 - Attachment A (2).xlsx SENDOUT_INPUTS Page 6 of 6
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO DATE PREPARED: 10/01/2012
CASE NO: AVU-G-12-8 WITNESS: N/A
REQUESTER: IPUC RESPONDER: Kelly Irvine
TYPE: Production Request DEPARTMENT: Natural Gas Resources
REQUEST NO.: Staff-03 TELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
Please clarify why Figure 6.8 shows Existing Resources vs. Average Day Demand (Net of
Demand-side Management (DSM)) and Figure 6.12 shows WA/ID Existing Resources vs. Peak
Day Demand (Net of DSM) in light of the filings to suspend DSM programs in Washington and
Idaho. Please provide updated figures that are not net of DSM.
RESPONSE:
The IRP is the starting point for the DSM operational business planning process. At the time of
IRP development DSM programs were still in effect. Until completion of the IRP analysis the
resultant avoided costs cannot be passed to our DSM department for programmatic evaluation.
Additionally, there are inherent differences in how DSM is modeled within SENDOUT® and how
actual DSM programs are evaluated within the business planning process. DSM is modeled at an
aggregated level within the SENDOUT® model. The results of model selected DSM savings are
then passed to our operations department for program development. When broken down to the
program level and assessed for cost effectiveness using the TRC test, it was determined the natural
gas DSM programs were not cost effective.
Appendix 3.9 shows the difference between demand with and without DSM. You can see from the
graphics that DSM is a very small component and does not significantly change the results of our
anticipated resource deficiency. Also refer to Table 6.4 which shows the volume served by DSM
on the peak day.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO DATE PREPARED: 10/01/2012
CASE NO: AVU-G-12-8 WITNESS: N/A
REQUESTER: IPUC RESPONDER: Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D.
TYPE: Production Request DEPARTMENT: Finance and Analysis
REQUEST NO.: Staff-04 TELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
Please provide the formulas used to forecast the number of customers and a detailed description of
the data used. Does your forecast implicitly assume that the penetration of gas appliances remains
constant in all types of new construction across time? If so, please provide your support for this
assumption.
RESPONSE:
The forecasts of residential electricity and gas customers are based on the following equation estimated by
ordinary least squares (OLS):
[1]ACa 0 ±aj S.+E.fort= 1997 )...2011
Here AC t is the annual change in total residential electric and gas customers in our WA, ID, and OR service
areas between years t and t-1; S t is the number of housing starts (single family homes and/or multi-family
units) reported at time t for Spokane, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) or Kootenai, ID MSA; and
Ct is the error term. For gas customers, St is restricted to single family permits since apartments do not
typically use gas.
The current estimation period is 1997-2011 and produces the estimated equation:
[2]
Here the "a-hats" are the OLS estimated coefficients and AC t,p is the predicted change in residential
customers based on S. Customer growth for the 2012-2035 period predicted by using Global Insight's (GI)
housing starts forecasts as the measure for S. GI is nationally recognized forecasting consultancy used by
both the public and private sectors.
Since most of the schedules for commercial and industrial customers demonstrate long-run stability,
customer forecasts typically represent current customer counts carried forward in time. For commercial
and industrial schedules showing a trend in customer counts, the trend tends to be very gradual; in these
cases, simple trend forecasting is applied.
No specific adjustments are made for the penetration of gas appliances.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO DATE PREPARED: 10/10/2012
CASE NO: AVU-G-12-8 WITNESS: N/A
REQUESTER: IPUC RESPONDER: Linda Gervais
TYPE: Production Request DEPARTMENT: State & Federal Regulation
REQUEST NO.: Staff-OS TELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
Please provide a copy of the Risk Management Policy referenced on page 5.15.
RESPONSE:
Please see Avista's response 05C, which contains TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY or
CONFIDENTIAL information and exempt from public view and is separately filed under
IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and 233, and Section 9-340D, Idaho Code.
Please see Staff PR —05C Confidential Attachment A.