20090403AVU to Staff 47-49, 50, 52-56, etc.pdf

Avista Corp.
1411 East Mission P.O. Box 3727
Spokane. Washington 99220-0500
Telephone [phone]
Toll Free 800-727~9170
~~~JII'STA.
Corp.
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zun, APR -3 PM 2~ 10
April 2, 2009
Idaho Public Utilities Commission
472 W. Washington
Boise, ID 83702-5918
Attn: Donald Howell & Krstine Sasser
Deputy Attorneys General
Re: Production Request of the Commission Staff in Case Nos. AVU-E-09-01 and
A VU-G-09-0 1
Dear Mr. Howell and Ms. Sasser,
Enclosed are an original and two copies of Avista's responses to IPUC Staffs production
requests in the above referenced docket. Included in this mailing are Avista's responses to
production requests 047 through 049, 050, 052 through 056, 058, 059, 064 through 070, 072,
and 088. The electronic versions of the responses were emailed on 04/2/09 and are also being
provided in electronic format on the CDs included in this mailing.
Also included are Avista's CONFIDENTIAL responses to PR 052C and 055C. These
responses contain TRAE SECRET, PROPRIETARY or CONFIDENTIA information and
is separately filed under IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and 233, and Section 9-340D, Idaho Code,
and pursuant to the Protective Agreement between Avista and IPUC Staff dated Januar 8, 2009.
It is being provided under a sealed separate envelop, marked CONFIDENTIAL.
If there are any questions regarding the enclosed information, please contact me at (509) 495-
4546 or via e-mail at j oe.miler(iavistacorp. com
ët~Joe Miler
Regulatory Analyst
Enclosures
CC (Paper):The Energy Project (Roseman)
WUC Staff (Trautman - 3 copies)
lCND (Schoenbeck, Van Cleve)
Public Counsel (ffitch)
.
.
.
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
A VISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
IDAHO
AVU-E-09-0l / AVU-G-09-0l
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-047
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMNT:
TELEPHONE:
03/30/2009
Tara Knox
Tara Knox
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
Please provide actual load weather normalized by month and schedule from Januar 2004 to
present for the total Company and the Idaho jursdiction.
RESPONSE:
The attached Excel workbook labeled "StafCPR_047 Attachment A" contains a summar of the
sum of per books biled sales, per books unbiled sales, and the weather normalization usage
adjustment prepared for each time period.
The weather normalization method was modified in 2006 to reflect seasonal sensitivity factors.
The 2007 weather normalization reflects the adjustment included in Case No. A VU-E-08-01,
which incorporated the 2006 seasonal sensitivity factors and a twenty-five year rolling average
normal calculation. The 2008 and 2009 weather normalization reflects the adjustment included in
this case which includes updated seasonal sensitivity factors and a thirty year rollng average
normal calculation.
.
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JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-048
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
03/30/2009
Tara Knox
Tara Knox
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
Please provide a calculation of the average production and transmission cost (TLK-R-2
workpaper) showing the production and transmission components separately.
RESPONSE:
Please see the attached excel worksheet labeled "Staff PR 048 Attachment A". The
production/transmission per results rate base figue has been revised in this response due to an
input error in the original Exhibit. The origial value of337,543 should have been 337,343 due to
a typographical error in deducting the production related accumulated depreciation shown on
Knox workpaper page TLK-R-7. This correction changes the resulting proposed retail revenue
credit rate from $0.04785 to $0.04784.
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AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-049
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
03/30/2009
Tara Knox
Tara Knox
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
REQUEST:
Please provide an analysis of the effects on revenue of the production propert adjustment by
month from the time rates including the adjustment were put in place on October 1, 2008, to the
present time. Include the power supply effects, the production property effects and the retail
revenue adjustment effects. Also include any other related revenue impacts, effects or explanation
that would help one understand the results of the Company's analysis.
RESPONSE:
Please see the attached excel worksheet labeled "Staff_PR_049 Attachment A". All values perain
to the costs and rates approved in Case No. A VU-E-08-01, which became effective October 1,
2008.
The production property adjustment is a mechanism that reduces the revenue requirement for costs
that wil be recovered from expected incremental loads. It is applied to production and
transmission costs that have been pro formed to reflect the cost to serve the expected loads in a
future period, but are par of rates designed for the loads and customers from an historical period.
The attached spreadsheet first shows a monthly comparson of the expected loads in the rate year
compared to the normalized loads durng the test year. Row I shows, on a month by month basis,
how the Company would recover the amount that revenue requirement was reduced by the
production property adjustment if the loads were to materialize as projected in the 2009 rate year.
Note 1 below, shows the calculation of the amount revenue requirement was reduced to calculate
rates on 2007 normalized loads. It is assumed that each incremental kWh recovers the average
production property adjustment per incremental kWh of $0.04694.
The next section, rows J, K and L, show actual Idaho retail load (in total and adjusted for Potlatch
generation equivalent load) that has occurred since rates took effect 10/1/2008. The Potlatch
generation adjustment recognizes that the changes in both the costs and revenues associated with
that load is tracked at 100% in the PCA. Rows M, N and 0 show actual incremental kWhs
compared to the 2007 normalized test year. Row P then shows (at the $0.04694 average rate) how
much of the production property revenue requirement reduction has been recovered to date
through actual incremental loads. The final step in this section is a comparson of the amount
actually recovered with the amount that was expected to be recovered in the rate year shown on
row Q, resulting in a shortfall of $2.4 milion.
The final section addresses power supply costs as measured by the PCA and the retail revenue
credit interaction with them. Row R shows the comparson of actual Idaho retail loads (without
.
.
.
Response to Staff Request No. 049
Page 2
Potlatch generation) to the Idaho rate year loads built into authorized base costs. Row S then
shows the Idaho share of the difference between actual and authorized power supply costs in the
PCA. The retail revenue credit recorded in the PCA is then shown on row T with the net power
cost increase or decrease shown on row U. Finally, the values on row V show the net amount of
the retail revenue credit applied in the PCA and the production property incremental cost recovery
shortfall. deterined in row Q, which shows that at ths point in time net costs to the Company are
$83,528 lower than expected. Considerng that beginning in Januar the retail revenue credit rate
represents the incremental cost of power included in the authorized test year (as opposed to the
average cost embedded in rates) and loads have been less than projected, it makes sense that
slightly more than the production property shortfall would flow through the PCA.
AV
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JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-050
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMNT:
TELEPHONE:
03/3112009
Elizabeth AndrewslBil Johnson
Liz Andrews
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
Please provide the amount of the Production Tax Credit included in Base Rates starting with the
implementation of rates in Case No. A VU-E-04-1 to the present time. Show the actual amount ofthe
credit for each month over the same time period.
RESPONSE:
Please see the attached excel worksheet labeled "Staff PR 050 Attachment A - Prod Tax Credits.xls"
showing the actual amount of the credit per month, compared to the authorized credit. See also
attached file "StafCPR _050 Attachment B -Authorized Prod Tax Credits.xls" showing the
calculation ofthe authorized production credit per Case No. A VU-E-08-01.
.ettleFalis YTO Oec.10 % Share 10 % Share 10 Amount in Rates
Jan-OS (288,878.85)
Feb-OS (262,083.15)
Mar-OS (294,812.55)
Apr-OS (258,637.50)
May-OS (8,755.20)
Jun-05 (6,475.77)
Jul-05 (349,366.68)
Aug-OS (303,379.65)
Sep-05 (297,326.25)
Oct-OS (250,420.95)
Nov-OS (266,238.45)
Dec-OS (304,978.50) (2,891,353.50)34.63%(1,001,276) $Annual Amount 2005
Jan-06 (279,867.15)
Feb-06 (267,546.60)
Mar-06 (303,542.10)
Apr-06 (139,972 OS)
May-06 (204,610.05)
Jun-06 (78,061.50)
Jul-06 (288,776.25)
Aug-06 (298,070.10)
Sep-06 (286,604.55)
Oct-06 (294,975.00)
Nov-06 (303,747.99)
Nov-06 (141,908.81)
Dec-06 (290,516.93) (2,898,331.92)34.17%(990,360) $Annual Amount 2006
Jan-07 (312,378.68)
Feb-07 (270,627.47).Mar-07 (181,868.83)
Apr-07 (223,728.60)
May-07 (187,930.22)
Jun-07 (118,730.86)
Jul-07 (258,142.82)
Aug-07 (127,551.54)
Sep-07 (260,449.76)
Oct-07 (408,848.17)
Nov-07 (245,674.35)
Dec-07 (48,783.56) (2,644,714.86)35.41%(936,494) $Annual Amount 2007
Jan-08 (263,550.22)
Feb-08 (272,877.87)
Mar-08 (260,785.49)
Apr-08 (44,827.48)
May-08 (4,089.68)
Jun-08 (1,907.93)
Jul-08 (2,464.41)
Aug-08 (197,417.55)
Sep-08 (120,723.49)
Oct-08 (75,722.33)(1,044,396.70) Effective 10/1/2008 - Annual amount
Nov-08 (242,095.66)
Dec-08 (294,823.58) (1,781,285.68)35.58%(633,781)Annual Amount 2008
Jan-09 (159,059.34)
Feb-09 (201,563.60)
.
Kettle Falls Staff_PR_050 Attachment A - Prod Tax Credits.xls Page 1 of 3
.cabinet YTO Dec.10 % Share 10 % Share o Amount in Rates
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07 (7,090.48)$
May-07 (9,689.54)$
Jun-07 (8,323.07)$
Jul-07 (4,153.09)$
Aug-07 (2,390.68)$
Sep-07 (2,348.26)$
Oct-07 (4,379.92)$
Nov-07 (2,350.35)$
Dec-07 (4,268.16)(44,993.55)35.41%(15,932) $YTD Amount 2007
Jan-08 (3,471.82)$
Feb-08 (3,141.50)$
Mar-08 (3,297.19)$
Apr-08 (3,412.80)$
May-08 (8,968.32)$
Jun-08 (9,389.57)$
Jul-08 (8,120.95)$
Aug-08 (4,194.61)$
Sep-08 (3,562.16)$
Oc-08 (3,398.92)(16,401) Effective 10/1/2008 - Annual amount
Nov-08 (3,233.52)
Dec-08 (4,154.33)(58,345.70)35.58%(20,759)Annual Amount 2008
Jan-09 (4,312.33)
Feb-09 (3,399.89).
.
Cabinet Staff_PR_050 Attachment A - Prod Tax Credits.xls Page 2 of 3
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.Avista Corporation
Electricity Production Tax Credit - Open-Loop Biomass/Hydro Upgrade
Applicable to Production at the Kettle Falls Generating Plant and Cabinet Unit 4 Upgrade.
PRODUCTION TAX CREDIT APPROVED EFFECTIVE 10/1/2008
KF Generation included in pro forma power supply
(net of station load)x
Kettle Falls
333,536 MWh
1,000
333,536,000 kWh
Cabinet Upgrade
Cab. Gorge est. Net Gen. 857,718 MWhX 1,000
857,718,000 kWh
(incremental increase in gen.) 0.54%
4,631,677 kWhProduction credit rate per kWh
50% reduction for open-loop biomass/hy
Production credit
-$0.020
X 50%
X -$0.01000 $/kWh -$0.01000 $/kWh
Gross production credit amount -$3,335,360 -$46,317
Qualifed Financing Rate (Note 1)X 88.43%100.00%
Net production credit amount -$2,949,440
(ID share - $1,044,397)Total KF + CG
-$2,995,757
-$46,317
(ID share. $16,401)
Note 1:
Kettle Falls pollution control bonds amount $4,100,000
Tax basis for Kettle Falls (from Tax Acctg)
Less: reduction for ITC previously taken
reduction for tax exempt financing
portion not qualifed for credit
Plus additions to basis
$105,779,369
$8,139,258
4,100,000
11.57%
.
ProductionlTransmission Ratio
System WA ID
-$2,995,757 -$1,934,960 -$1,060,798
-$2,689,707 -$1,737,282 -$952,425
-$306,050 -$197,678 -$108,372
100.00%64.59%35.41%
Total pro forma production tax credits
Production Tax Credit per ROO (E-FIT-12A)
Adjustment to FIT for pro forma qualified generation
.
fie: SiafCPR_050 Attachment B -Authorized Prod Tax Credits.xls Page i of i
.
.
.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMNT:
TELEPHONE:
03/30/2009
Wiliam Johnson
Wiliam Johnson
Power Supply
[phone]
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-052
REQUEST:
Please show the proposed PCA calculation template that includes the four changes identified in
question No. 51 and the changes required to incorporate Lancaster into the PCA as proposed by the
Company. Show the amounts of the Lancaster fixed monthly costs.
RESPONSE:
Please see the worksheet provided in response to Data Request Staff-051 labeled "StafCPR _051
Attachment A" showing the impact to 2008 deferrals from the Company's proposed PCA changes.
Please also see Avista's response Staff-052C, containing the CONFIDENTIAL expected
Lancaster expenses that would be included in the PCA. Response Staff-052C contains TRAE
SECRET, PROPRIETARY or CONFIDENTIA information exempt from public view and is
separately filed under IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and 233, and Section 9-340D, Idaho Code, and
pursuant to the Protective Agreement between Avista and IPUC Staff dated Januar 8,2009.
As shown on the Confidential attachment "StafCPR _ 052C-CONFIDENTIA Attachment A", the
Company's proposal is to include the Lancaster expenses beginning Januar 2010 (Lacaster-
fixed capacity payment and varable energy payments account 555, gas transportation expense
account 547 and transmission expense account 565) and flow them through the PCA at 100% of
the actual expense. Because the Lancaster expense does not begin until January 2010, including
the expense in the authorized power supply expense would cause a greater general rate increase,
and tracking 95% of the difference between actual and authorized expense would create an
over-recovery of 5% of the expense prior to Januar 2010.
Also beginning Januar 2010, the Company proposes to track the operating margin from the plant
(electrcity value minus fuel expense), which wil offset a portion of the Lancaster plant expenses.
The operating margin was also not included in the authorized power supply expense since it does
not star until January 1,2010. The operating margin wil be included in Accounts 555 (reduced
purchased power expense), Account 447 (increased wholesale revenues) and Account 547 (natural
gas fuel expense), and wil be included in the PCA and flow though the PCA at the Company's
proposed 95/5 sharng.
The net effect of the Company's proposal for including the Lancaster plant in the PCA beginning
Januar 2010 is that the difference between the Lancaster expenses (tracked at 100%) and the
operating margin (tracked at 95%/5%) wil flow through the PCA until such time that the
Lancaster expense and revenue is included in authorized power supply expense. The market
conditions at the time wil determine the level of the net expense that flows though the PCA.
.
.
.
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-053
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMNT:
TELEPHONE:
03/30/2009
Tara Knox
Tara Knox
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
Please provide, by rate schedule and test year month, actual and weather normalized energy usage.
Please indicate the customer classes that were not weather normalized.
RESPONSE:
Please see attached worksheet "Staff PR 053 Attachment A".
.
.
.
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JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-054
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
03/30/2009
Tara Knox
Tara Knox
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
Please provide normal heating degree days (HD) and cooling degree days (CDD), by month,
using a twenty-five year moving average.
RESPONSE:
The normal heating degree days (HDD) by month using a twenty-five year moving average is
shown on the Knox workpaper page TLK - W -64 and the calculation was included in the electronic
workpapers in the fie named "WC 0908 w 30 yr rollng. xIs" on the tab labeled "25 yr avg- --
Heating". .
The normal cooling degree days (CDD) by month using a twenty-five year moving average is
shown on the Knox workpaper page TLK - W -65 and the calculation was included in the electronic
workpapers in the file named "WC 0908 w 30 yr rolling. xIs" on the tab labeled "25 yr avg- --
Cooling".
Hardcopy of calculation pages are attached in "StafCPR _ 054 Attachment A".
.
.
.
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StafCAR_054 Attachment A Page 2 of2
.AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-055
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
3/31/2009
Brian Hirschkorn
Brian Hirschkorn
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
REQUEST:
Please provide the analysis discussed on pages 15 though 16 of Mr. Hirschkorn's
testimony pertaining to consumption comparsons between all-electrc customers
receiving LIHEAP assistance and those that do not.
RESPONSE:
Please see Avista's response 055C, which contains TRADE SECRET,
PROPRIETARY or CONFIDENTIAL information and exempt from public view and
is separately fied under IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and 233, and Section 9-340D, Idaho
Code, and pursuant to the Protective Agreement between A vista and IPUC Staff dated
Januar 8, 2009..
.
.
.
.
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
A VISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-056
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMNT:
TELEPHONE:
03/30/2009
Don Kopczynski
Linda Gervais
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
Please provide a comparson of total energy (gas and electric) and overall bil amount, by test year
month, for Idaho residential all-electric and dual customers. Please provide this for both the
overall average customer and the average customer receiving LIHAP assistance.
RESPONSE:
Please see the attached file labeled "Staff PR 056 Attachment A".
.
.
.
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.
A VISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-0l 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-058
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMNT:
TELEPHONE:
REQUEST:
03/30/2009
Tara Knox
Tara Knox
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
What is the basis for the load forecast for the pro forma period? How does it relate to the test year
loads? Has the Company updated its load forecast, and if so, please provide it; and if not, does the
Company intend to as part of ths proceeding?
RESPONSE:
The load forecast for the pro forma period was taken directly from the Company's 2009 - 2013
load and retail revenue forecast modeL. Historical data though mid-2008, which includes more
than half of the test year, was included as part of the load forecasting process for this period. In
addition to historical usage statistics, many other economic aspects are taken into consideration in
the formulation of the forecast. Chapter 2 of the Company's most recent published Integrated
Resource Plan includes a discussion of the load forecasting process and is included in
"Staff PR 058 Attachment A".
While the Company looked at updating the electrc load forecast incorporating actual data through
October, the result was not materially different from the existing forecast and the decision was
made not to update the electric load and revenue forecast. The Company does not intend to
provide an updated load forecast as par of this proceeding.
.
.
.
()lâpte:- 2- leads and P.esources
2.LOADS AND RESOURCES
INTRODUCTION & HIGHLIGHTS UTILITY lOADS
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE ELECTRIC SERVICE
TERRITORY
Load, and resources n;'pre,eii two key component, of
the' m, P. The Jirsr half oÎ rhis chapter :ilmiwirizcs
CU,WîJ,'r ;indlo:id fi.wcc:ists for our service territory,
includiiig high .:ind low f()l'ccasrs, load scenarios and an
mT1Ti('W of lTCI:nt eiili:ill(em,~n~ to our tòrccasdng
rlodeb :ind pwù's;.c:s. 'rhe $L'COI1(1 h:iJf covers our
n'sollCc'S. iiidmling (')ini"iny oWllc:d and ope~ited
IOC,(Hirce,. ¡i'\ \Vt'H as long-t(Orni contr:1crs.
Avista serves a wide area of EaSH~rn \.Vashiii¡.wii and
Northern Idaho. This :irea is geographic;illy aiid
economically diwrse. Avista scrws 110sr of the urbanized
a;id suburban are.:is in 14 c()llnti(~s. Figure 2.1 is a nhlp of
(he L'oiip:iny's ekcrric and iiamr,IJ ¡"r:S sL'rvice rerritmv.
Sa:-'idp-oint. iÖ8tìG
CHAPTER HIGHLIGHTS
. Strong economic growlìî ccmtinues througlîout the company's service territory.
. Historic conservation acquisitions are included in the load forecast; lîigher acquisition levels envisioned in this
pian will bc; :n addition to levels included in the forecast.
. Electricity sales grm'ith averages 2.3 percent over the next 10 years (254 aMW) and 2.0 percent over the
entire 20-year forecast.
.. Peak loads are expected to grow at 2.4 percent over the next 10 years (400 MW) and 2. Î percent over the
entire 20-year forecast.
.. ¡wista's resource deíicìts begin in 2011,2014 wilt) the Lancaster plant.
.. Capacity deficiencies drive our resource needs.
í\\iist;:Com 200/ 8i:1l'ic IRP "' 1
Staff_PR_058 Attachment A Page 1 of 11
.
Chaç,l(y ?-. LUd(JS /ind p~)f;C)I.jf(:(::~3
Figure 2.1: Avista's Service Territory
.
TJi,' cCOliomy of thc' lnbiid NOl'thwest has transformed
O\":r ¡he p:i;;t 20 ye:irs, from ii:turai ri:sOL1c:e-b:ised
l1i:nificnli:iiiy; to diwrsirìeJ 1i~ht niamit:letlJing and
services, Much of the' iiminuinOlls :irea of tllt region is
own,'d by the Federal govcrnim:ii and man:igi.'d by thi.'
United Sure" l~on~sr S,~i:vict', Timbi.'¡- harvest reductions
C't! publi,' land, h.ivt ,'¡med maiiy 1001 sawmills. Two
pulp :md V11)(:r p!;q(;, ,crved by Avista haw lJr¡:e ti)r,'st
bnd hnldinc;s. bur rliev COlJilHll' to t'àCt ,titT domestic Jild
iÎ:n~ril;(tio:iai cornpcrinon t~~ir tìh~ir product.-.
Emplnvnt"l) CXllJ1i(b durin:; exp.1iiioii:iry iimö :lld
.
¡.:uJHLìCrS duriHgn:'c(.~ssions. ()iir.;l.."tvic(' tLrríEory
c'xPtTiC'I1Ù'd brg" scIlt' uii\.'mploymem duriltg fWO
li.nOli:i1 rcc:ession, i ll dw ILJxfJ" .Avì,c.i'; sc'rvice tcrriwry
v.'as mnsdy bypassed by elll' 1')') I /92 narìon:il rCCl::ssioll,
bur it was not ,b íilrtU¡¡;iiC durin;: the :?OOI rect'ssioii.
Tht' c:t1i.'ct, ol i',xcssioiis ~md ('coiiomic growdi arc
best i1usrratcd by i:iiployinent ¡()l' the rhrce principal
~ Electric Service Area
Natural Gas Service Area
coumies in the cOl1piny's electric st'rvice arc'a. Region;il
employment data is provided bwr in this chapter,
Population levels otten ;lre 1l00C soble than cmployment
lcvds during times of economic diangc; hüwever, rota!
popubrion ofren co\lracts during sevac c'COllOliic
downturns as people leaw iii search of job opporwniries,
On~r the past 20 'years. only iii 19S7 did the r,'gi on
experience:i net J()s in ¡m¡JL!JriOil. ¡:jgun: 2.2 deuih
;1lnuaJ popularíoii Ch.111gCS iii Bonner. Koolcn.ii and
Spokane couotícs, Figure 2,,) shows total popubnoii in
tllòc: rhrc'c counric's.
ECONOMIC, CUSTOMER, AND SALES FORECASTS
People, Jobs and Customers
A\'ist~ purch:is'-s natlOll.l1 and CÜlIl1ty.,kvd '-inployiic'llt
and population fi.irecast'\ ti'ol1 Global fosifdll.1nC. (;I,)bal
Insight is an imern,irionally l't'i'ognizt'd c'C(lIHlllJic
forecasting cOllulciiig tìrm ,iseJ by various ;igcncics in
\1Q~ishington and Idaho. The data t'J1COl1!XlSSC$ tlic' tlilc'c'
2007 Eleciric ii,p /\',rist3 Gorp)
Staff_PR_058 Attachment A Page 2 of 11
.
Chapt(-:r 2- LuaUs and Rr~sourCE'$
1ô
14
12
10
Figure 2.2: Population Change for Spokane, Kootenai and Bonner Counties (Thousands)
8
I1III
6
4
: I\l
-2 ii
13w,.
('C'CD~
c')0)OJ~l7cr §N ~
'"~~
c'"
;;N
0';;N
C'(',~
..N~
..
¡a
~NoN
c'"8N§N
..8N
m
g;~
~
¡a
encooi
..8N
0)oi
Figure 2.3: Total Population for Spokane, Kootenai and Bonner Counties (Thousands)
1.000
.900 il Spokane County
o Kootenai County
o Bonner County800
700
600
500
200
100
0 l'gi ;;M c'"..0'8 '";.r)l'8 ..'"ll l'oi ,.'"c')..
cc g;m g;g 8 0 8 ;;;;..,.,.N tJ 8 tJ(j 2:cr OJ 0 ~0 0 0 0~N N N N N N N N N N N N N
Gross Domestic Product
Consumer Price Index
West Texas Crude
Treasury Bonds
Unemployment Rate
Housin Starts (miL.)
2.5%-2.0% Job Growth
$60-$65 ì Worker Productivi
5.0%-5.5% i Consumer Sentiment
.:5.0%
pnnnl';l1 (ountie,; whil'i ,.,,',mprisc o\,('\" 80 percc'm of
Oll!" 'c'r\'i(c ;lL::i e',:onniiy. 1'1:111C1y Spok;irc CDllilV
in \\/;lshili~tol1 .I lid Koorni:i and Boiiier couiije~ in
kbhii. ¡he' narw!l.t! r'HTC;lst í, ba,ed on region~i t()lCC3SrS
prcl';ir,.~d in ivtirc:li :?i)O(¡: county-le'vcl e'stirn:ltes W,'I\'
cOllpL-tcd in June 2(jl)(i.
The' t()rec;ist and undcrlying :iSQiiiiprion, thúl II ¡hi,
lRP We'\": pn:semed at the' third 1~'dinIc.1 Advi,ory
Committee. mecring t(il" AVIS,.I"); 2007 l11tqrr,llc:d
Resource Phin on j!1111:iry 10.2007" Kev t()ll'cast
.l"t1lllprioll arc ,hOWIl Iu'I;¡hk' 2.1..
,''1:.,¡:.J,;; (';Ö'f.~20Q7 E:.ç;:~IK~ iRj'l . ~~
Staff_PR_058 Attachment A Page 3 of 11
Chaptor 2~~ LOBel;; an(j Resources
Figure 2.4: Three-County Population Age 65 and Over (Thousands)
B Spokane County
o Kooíenai County
o Sonner County
0: .:"lj 0)C' 0)~~~
mmm
"" ~0
8 N8N~8N
L~)okJns l¡H.\'.'.Hd~ ih\;' iiationJl r.~çOn()lny ~io..vt.d ~lftct
t",-'cn\"i.'n-ng frorn the ~oO I H:'i:es.;ion~ SCltlng: th;.' "\Ligc teH
Tl'~inn;ii cconol111( rcrfOrinaiÌl~t' in ¡i\ViSt:llS sÇ.~rvii:: JreJ 111
.E.i:rçri W:i:;liintton .ind Norrhern Idaho. .As shown in
rl-, ,h'-irr" abOVe'. pUf'libtion growüi h",; rebmlllkd .iittr
slim.' ~I'O\vth tiUJl )l)')7 to 2002. PoPUlatiOii ¡,rowth is
,'xpectt'd (0 ,'uiii nuc in, re,'\:llt tri'iid through 20 J n.
Re~ipn;¡i popid:nioii gro\vth ¡,. ,;upportcd by ihe
,'nii~Liriol1 of I'cril'c'('S. n:pre,;('miiig: b,:t\veen i (J and ::11
pi.'rt::.'iH of ovcrJU popuhtion ~n'n.vd1. r:igun:' 2.4 prz,:scnrç
rh.' popilLui,ni !mrorv and ((weci,t, for individuaL, ÓS
ye.1r, and OWl' in tlic din;c-counry area. Ikt\wcn 1l)~()
:iiid 2()OG tlii, ,egnieii ~n~w by comp,iund growth
~~
C'
~
I-oN
O'
~
""NaN
l!NoN
!'NoN
'"oN §N~
races of2.' percem in ßoiuicr Counry, 2,ti p.:n:eil in
Kootenai Coumy ,iid n.s pncc'llt iii Spokane Coiincy.
This :igc :;roup n.:¡m:semeJI 3 pl'l'Cnìl (If ih,. OVc'LliI
popuLitìon in loo(,. The ièH'cc:isr predicts t!l'o,,ch iif 2.5
p(~rri:nt. 4.5 perctnt and 3.5 perc(-nr. rL'~pccti\'('iy, pu,diin~
the ow rail contribution of rbis :ig" ~roiip to L ''¡ I't~rcc;ii
iii 20::,
Eniploym"l1t growth dnvö population growth. Fipm'
2.S ,;hows employment mends in tbc~ prior TWO and tlltUI'C
rwO decide,;_
Overall Ilon-iànn \'~1gC and ,;ibry "l1piOvill':llt (lV,'1' dic
pa,;t 10 yl:':i1', ,iveragcd 3.ì pe1'ccnl I()r Bonner Coumy.
Figure 2.5: Three-County Job Change (Thousands)
12 r1
!
10
(¡
6
II
4
ii2
0
i-2
-4
,...(J ~("""-i.0 I-0';;"".r ,.Q)""on ..
:0 c:en (J OJ 0'J)0 a 0 0 0 ~0:;~CI.CJ J)a:m a 0 0 0 0 a RNNNNNNN ('.NoN
v,aN
""NoN
i""NoN
r0NCN
'.\Y/7 Ele-:i:k ipr:.i\,,:,,:;~' ~1 !....::-If.
StafCPR_058 Attachment A Page 4 of 11
.
C.riap1Üf 2.~. Loaö~; t)r'Ö M~)::-:'1IXCeS
450
Figure 2.6: 3-County Non-Farm Jobs (Thousands)
400 fa Spökarie cOniY
EI Koo1enai Conty
o Bonner County
350
300 i
250
200
150
100
50 i
a r:n
"-roGl~
~roG)~
c'l
~~
r'8N
C':i:i~
r'G)~
"-OJ~8N
;;Gl
.
:;.1 t"i:.'r= L"nr t:.H K.l'oti.rui (~ouiiry and .?J perceut f()r
S"¡ni-:lIl' (\iumv, St't' ¡'igure ~.6. Over the ¡(irt'CIS!
ii.Jtt/()ïL ~ro\\'th rate, ;11'i" prl"di(r;,'d:ir ~J) pt.'reelH-. .,.6
Pl.T(í.'lìt~1l ¡d 2.(1 pCfc(.'n t. r'.:sp(~r( iVi~iy. f\s indìctt.i'd in the
rdlowi n~ c!i;irr. t'llPIoVllt'nt ~niwth i, êxpec.tcd ttl eqii:il
,ippm,illí:irdv ¡ ,SiiO new job, :tll11.lly.
Cmtml!cr gro\vth projection,; f(illow liTim baseline
,~(()n()inìc r(i!"t'ciscs. The company tracks four key
cmwil"r ,hssi',-rc,idt,iiiat. commerciaL. indmtrÎal Jnd
"tr",.t lighting. R,'sitknti;iì clbtonier f()rt'cl.,t, ;ire driven
h l'0pui~ti()n, Coiiiincl'cia! t()l;casts rdy more heavily
(,11 l'llploymc'nr and rl'sìdemì,il g:ni'.vdi trends. Indmtrìa.l
co;o
f'§N
C".,
f'
':'loN
en ~C':..,~N (',J0R0NN
,~N::N
"-8N ~
"-
~
cumimer growth is ,:orrdatlÒd with cilplo\'11k'I¡r !Jrowdi.
Street lighting crlÒlld, with PO!'uLiiiilJ; gniwtll.
i\vì,r:i íorcc~sts sal," hv ratt' ,,'lit'diik, The- (lvcr;ill
CllSrOll1er f(H'('r~lst is :1 coinl'ibrion ü( thi' \'..lnCJlh
r,ite sche'dule, of our 't'rved st:iie,. hir ..:oiipic.
th" i'('siòçntüi das, f(lre'Ca,r is Ctiiipri,cd of ,ep:ir:ire
forecast.s prt~p:ired f(w rate sdic,iules L 12.22 :\id "~2 tfir
ìXrashiugtoll .ind Idaho. See Figure 2.7
Avista served 300,928 rcsideiií:ilcuswmcn. .,7,9 ¡ J
eOl1mcrei;il customer;. 1.3:)8 indus(ri:d eLl,wlilers Jnd
423 street lighting enstomei" or :i total of :)'O,(í.'~ retaìl
550
Figure 2.7: Avista Annual Average Customer Forecast (Thousands)
1
500
!J Street lights
Ii Commercial
o Residential
o Industria:
,150
4(JO
,997-2007 Growth Rate=1.7%
350
300
2007-2027 Grov.¡th Rate= 1, 8%
250."-Q)0 '"c'),.'"M tt ~"m N C"in "-
~~0 8 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 ti N N000f'0 0~N N N N N N N N C'N N N N
.\ví~:'i¿:i (;t~n)¿no/ Eleçiri IRP
StafCPR_058 Attchment A Page 5 of 11
.
.
.
Chapter 2-" Leads nnd RetKX!rCeS
,,~L-.~.\:ri('it\. ciis"(oincrs in 2(Hib. ''llll' lO:!7 fÎ::H('Clst D1'edicts
l,-It ;,c~idcnru1. ,:;J.,'122 cnrnincn:iaL 1. ì9S iJ1du~tri;ii
;1n(Ì (l:~) "itn::cr lighting ':USr(HnCr~ ft1r ,:.ì grand (ot:11 of
4i)('i.)~)~. Thi~2(J-YL"Jr (oinpound ~n.J\\,th r:ne ;lVi.:l;lgi.S
~.,-. Pt'l'Co.~nL
WEATHER, PRICE ELASTiCITY, PRICES, CONSERVATION
AND USE PER CUSTOMER
Weather Forecasts
The h;i,diiic' electricity sak, ¡tin:cas, is basc'd Oil 30-
\\';-, norm:il rL~inp,:r;lnir,'s fiJr ,he station at the Spok,ml'
ll:t,'riatioml .Airport, .1S tabuiat,'d by the National
\XA',Hh"r Snv ite from 197 i r1irough 2000. D3ily v,iliies
go b,id; :1\ fir as i 8')\l. Th.:r,' ;ll~ ,ev,~ral or1ic:r '\watli.:r
'Llti""i, with hisrorical rc'cords in the compan...'s ekctric
sl'vi(t' ;Jr'a; howcvn di,it dai:i is aVJilable over a much
~hon\.T duranun. S:~t('sf~()rc(:t"t~ :ire prep~lt'(~d using
moi idill ,Lit:i.;1' mol'" ;.'r;,nu!;r lo;id inhrii:1Ü0l1 i, Un!
a\,til.ibl,,', '¡he 1.'(';1:1p:iny tilhh Ì1i~h corn:'Lltion:, bçf-vccn
(1.=.:~ nti.~J I1~Hi()rj;l: Aiqìi;Hr and i;ithcr \\'(';.ihcr
-:~:nkin'~ in it;. ~.:n..'ic'C" I"f'!TItory. It U~l"t hearing di"gyCC
day.. to nh.:,isun..: L'old \vC~H:hçr ;Hhì (ooling degrèt tbys (0
:il\'a,iire hor we:itÌwr in its retail "lies ron::casr.
in !''Sp¡imL' tu cjU,-tiOH' irom irs 'f\:cÌ1nical Advisory
Coiiiiiiinec, tbe company lia, prepared a ,wdy of the
possihle i¡lll'act:- of clíinarc change Oil its rl'ail load
t~)r('(.îst. Ample ,'vi.knee of cooling and w:1J"ming trends
('xi'r, in the ! I :;-\'L~ar record. 1n l''cent ycars the rrend
ins he.'c'l1 one of a w:iniiiiig clim¡iw when comp¡ired
ro rhe 50-year normaL. KC'Cl'1I rrends iii heating and
(l)oliq; dc:rre,' da\', !(ll Spobne are roughly t~aiial w
rh' ,ch.¡¡itì( ¡"mlinuJJity's prcdiC(ion, t()!' tbi, (oordinate
on the ~i()bc. i!npl\'ïn~ ;l LHic-de~ree \Varniing every
2.'1 \¡,,,r,. E;.tr,ipul.itin:r dìt UTlld linds th,it in 20 yç.irs
'l' t "" It'j' load ivoiild be' apprm:iin:itclv 2() :1ì\1 \Xi, .i 2.fj
iwrc,'nt. hi",h,'r duii iÌle l$"Si: C"",. In rlw win,e'r, !L);ids
\\-'i)uld ht: .q:~pru,inl~lt\"1\' Hi :11"\'1\)\/. or 2 l"'erccnr. iu\vi_'r
l"hi, ~.j'un~~ç hkdy \\...)uld nrrUf i~~r;idiian~,. .utd Il ,i¡"'pi',ir-;
:!i:ir ,rpproxlllMe'jv Olh.-thiro.1 to (m,' -Iuj! of r11i, ¡rend is
!S
alrcaLJy c:iptur..-d ir nul' Îo;id !,)reo", The ,:nrnpan\' will
.:oiitíiiut to study rlwsç dara tr,~l1d, iI It' r,H' ',-eM ,Anioii
PÌ;11 :iiid report anI' additional tindin~s ll rlw 20Iì')
1lìe:rrated Rc';;urce I'Liii.
Price Elasticity
Pricc' c::isticity is a çc:mr,iJ "CODOiiic ,'Oiiccpt of
pro,ketiiig ekctricity deinaml. Price d.Niciry of ¡kiiaiid
is thc r.itio of the percent chang;: in the qu;imity
demanded of a good or s,~rviee to a p.:rceH!ag-e chang",
iii its price. In ocher words, elasticity mca"tH"t'S the
rt'poiisivl.'ncss ofoiiycrs to e1i,mgt" in denricity prk,~".
A consumer who is sensitive (( priçe (haligL~s lus ¡¡
relatively d:istIc demand prorìJe. l\ ciistoiiiCr wilt) is
unresponsive co price cJi,llges has ;¡ rebtivdy incbstic
demand protìlt". During the 20()O-O 1 L~n('rs'v aisis
cusromc'l', sho"ved their sensitivity. or price elasticity.
eif dem:Hid. reducing their oyerall .:1LClricitv usage in
rc:-pons(' to price i t1ct't'a~t~S.
Crms t'asricitv of,knlJiid, or cross'-l'r:n: cb,ticìiy, i, the
r:ttio of th" pel\X'llta:ie' cl1:iii¡:.., in rhe' qu.iirit). dcm:lIdcd
of 01le good co a on,' per,'cnt ch,ingc in dlc' pric,' ,,1'
:morlit' good. /\ posírÍVC" codlici,'nt indicate' th;.,
tlw nVi) product,; :ll'C' subsmUtes;:t Il('~ariw codticielì
indicates they are coiipkmeni:ry goods. Substitute'
g())ds Jrc repheenii:nts fiJr one anocher. As rIie pricc
of the rìrst good increases relarivc to rill' priù' ofilil'
second good, constinien; shift tht~il" consumptioii to the
sc'cond good. Complemenr~iry goods arc' used wgcthe..r:
inere,lst'S in the price of one g(~od result in a d.:çreasl' in
demand for the second good along with the' fim.Thc"
priiic.pal cross elasticity imp.it on eknricity dcni:uid i,
tli~ substiwiability of iiarural gas iii SOlll' ;ipplìcirioiis.
including warcr ;Hid space b,:,iriiig,
Incnnw t'bsricity ofdenund is the f.HlO of' riie !,CTCC'Ilt.,,)-c-
('li~\ng;,' in rhe qu.irltity ,L....Jli:1nck,d of Oilt' ttond (U ,1 \
th:rl.:l'lH (h,lngc in t~()!ì'Ullh~r ill\'on'1\.'. ilh.",ll'k' ,-'Li\li\ïtv
Hlc'asurcs rhi* re:-ponsivt;nc:,:' or ;::on:-nnll;~r ptHdias\'~ to
~?üD/ rJeclrj.~ IRP :-\",ì~;t~\ ~;()n)
Staff_PR_058 Attchment A Page 6 of 11
.
Chapteí 2... L.D8ÖS an(i RøS:)!._l'Gt;~"i
Figure 2.8: Household Size Index (% of 2007 Household Size)
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
I''"0":0C'0N
I'8N
Itic"(lih' eli.ing"s. Two ¡¡up.in;; ;iITcct i~knriciry dcin:iiid.
The ¡¡r,r i, :If¡(mbbiJry. A, íncoii1t~ rise. a consumer',
;ibiliry to pay for ~o()ds ~i11d :-erviccs. iiH.:n"nses. ~rhe.,,;coiid il1nlllc'-reLi:ed imp:ict is the animil1 :iml !11l1ber
of CmWni('S usi! ig eqiiipiiem wi(hin (heir hOllll'S ,111d
busiiiòsL\. Simply ,t,lt'd.;i,; incomes rise coiisumc'rs
'11,' I1hire likely to purchase JlOIY e!cctricity-c"ollumiiig
c'iuipiil('llt. ÌÎvc in Luger dwellings and usc (hór decrrical
"''-uipilll'lit riiorc otï:~'n.
The correLitioii hef\wni rctail ,'lenricity pricts and c!ic'
co:nrnndiry co\.t uf natuf:ll g;1~ ha-s jn(r(~asi:d in r~ccnt
\',';¡r,. \'I/ç (;,;,ill.m' Cli\WllWr t'x" price da,iicity iii
¡,.)Ul' ',:OlllPUt~Hiou or" clccrricity ,ind n;iturai g.h ç(('rn.ind.
t',('..idcI1rial (ustoini.r price :.~b.:üciry is (,~srin1¡ired at
Ih:;.:nivc 0.1 S. Cmiiiiacidt custoiin pri,'" d\;,tKItv is
c'scinutnì Jt negative 0.10. Tlw (lms-priù' d:isr.cirv of
ii;nur.ii ps .1Id dcctriçity is t.:;imated to be positive (l.US.
1 Jl('om(~ d;¡stiÓN is cstimawd ;jt positive 0.75. me¡mmg
c'kcrrìclty is mol',' alÌ()rchble as income,; rise.
Retail Price Forecast
.
llw rct.lil ,;:(''; foreclS is bN~d Oll 1'('(JíI pric(' increasing
.11 .lVeL1i-:" ul.J.5 pcrccm ;lI11ually ii.OIl 2007 to ~O:2ì.
The r:itc ciiaii~c;; .ire lumpy. rising bv 17.5 PCI'C'nt evcry
tiv(' years r,ì\'c p,'!ccm ,¡boVe the ovcrall iiiihiiol1 rate).
N;;N
..o"..
NN
R
,.."oN
Conservation
It is vcry diftìciilt to s,'P:U',lt(' tlit: iiitcrrcbtcd impact.s of
rising deetricìty aiid natural gas price" rising income,
and c:()Jservariol1 pni¡"'TdllLs. \ox/( oilly h.1W dara on
LOral dCUland and 1llhr dcr¡"c rhe impacts ,tssooated
wirh consumption dungcs. Tb~' com¡xiny bas otÎt'rni
Coiisci"\ation progr3111s to its cust"liiers since I \)7R.
The impact of COlli.rvatioTl OJ) dcnrjç;¡l usage is fullv
inihl.dded in the hisrorical data: rlicn.'Úm.', we concluded
th:it existing c()riSl'rv~l(oii levels (:i aM \V) :In' ill1bcddcd
iii tilt fon:,c:ist. Wth're conscTv.)(ioii ;)cquisiiioii deere;i,e,
ti'OIl dlis t('vd. retail lo,id obligariom would iucrc'asC'. ,-\,
this IRP Ú)r(,cJ,r~ growing coii,erv,icion ,h'qiiisitioTl, thi,
gmwtb reducc's rc:t;iil load ob1ii,.':iiinlis.
Use per Cuswnier Projecüons
Monthly decrricit;-. ,ales ~ind CUSlnnl,'r, hy Ln.' ,dlCduk.
cmwim;r class :ind SLlre tì'OJn i 9'!7 ti 20(\(, nuke lip tlw
database used to proj,'('t m:age per custoiier. FIi;.torical
data is we¡¡ther-l1orinalized to remove the imp;l(t of
heating and cooling degree day deviations from exp,'cr,'d
llorin:il v,ilues. as discus;.cd above:. TZctail eketric priú'
inerc'asc assumptions ;ire applied to prke daSlcity
estiin,ite, co ('"tinure price-induccd rc'duniolls iii
electrical us~' pCI' lusrOlJer.
,\",¡Ç;l ~~ Corn 2GO! El~tnc ¡PP -; L
Staff_PR_058 Attchment A Page 7 of 11
.
.
.
Cr~30tør ¿- Loa(!s and P0i:,cur"~f::
'rh,~' u:1d\.'rlying încrc;ìse ín r....."id...,lltial tl\(: pL'r Ctl~n.ìllt...'r RETAIL ELECTRICITY SALES FORECAST
O\'('r ! h~:¡"riii h (I.) perc-c'm Fer ye~r. consist,~l1t
wirh rhe illCdHlC eListiciry Jiid ~ro\vtli rate per customer.
i\; shown by hf!urc :2.8. t1w lHlnibn of pcr:\ol! per
IHHI,dlOld declines sliglidy ova the next 20 y~~;il"s.
Rc,ickmi;il Cll.\LOl1tTS rend to b" h()in(')g~neoiis rdative
to the' sizc' of rhL~ir dv:dLing,;. Coiiiinercial cu,wnitl"s, on
the other li.md. .irc Jicttrogtl1COtlS, ranging from small
custOHhTS widi ".iryiiig eketricity intcnsity per squ;irc
t~';,H nt MCH,II' '1";"1(;" (0 hi~ box rct:iiier5 \vith gcn(T:1ih.:r
ipti,.'u\iri.;'\ rb" ,iJdainii of ni.\v L11"~e conH11L'rci~il
;'USr()IHt'r\, :-ptyifìctlly the L-trbc:.r UniV(Tsitic~ and
h,):"plt;'d,,_ CUi ~lT~1r1y "kv\\' rhe .i\."er;igc- uSL per average
ctl'Cull\'-'L Cuswtntr lh:i~,' I,; il11stl',ltcd in FipJl': 2.().
t,:;q:i¡n:-Ht~' for rc's.idcntiai iis;ig\~ )01t"f l.usrOJlH...r :icross ;i1j
'clKihiks ~!'e id.itivdy sl1oocb. COl1l1lwló:'l U$:ig,~ peT
~:n~rutner is ¡~)rt'cbt to incr(.'a~e tt")f sevcLll YeJrs, dUt' to
:id,hrimulhiiiklinf!' ,'ìrlic~r huilr or Jiiiciparc'd ro Iw lmilr
;H "L'v(:l'ilexi,;rinè! \i:~ry )¡irgc nbtOlncrs :ind iii partinilal
.l! \Xhsliin~wn Su te' Univt'lsity campuses in Spokane'
:iiid !'iiilni:iil. For vcrv 1:r¡.i: c:u~wmen, we include
,'xpcnc'.i additioll through 201 I; a!Ìcr 201l no addition,
.11\' inc!udc.d in till torc'c:isr. \'Ve \\in include pubJidy"
:llmOtll1ú.d jon", kad time bii¡lding~ into the f(irecast
iiieluded in timi!',' IRPs.
Between 1 '.)ï and 200(, rIll rq!!oii '\va,; aff~'cred by
major c'co!lollic cliangcs. nO! rlK' k-:isr ofwhirÌ' \V,IS
~I marked increasi~ in rct,iil ek,ctricirv prices. The
energy crisis of200(J-fJl indudtd the implclientation
ofwidcsprcad, rcriiiant~l1t com(~rvati()n cHiil"tS by our
customers. In 2004. rising retail dectricity rarcs furth,'r
reinforced conscrvitÎon efforts. Sevt~ralbrge industrial
ficiliries served by tht~ company clmL~d pt'rnuncnrlv
during the 20lJJ -(J2 economic recession.
Ihe \.'lecrric retail s;itö i()rcc'asr ukcs :1 stl!wwh.it
consGrv~itivc ;ippro;idi by ;issuiiiiig d"sun.'s .11','
perl1aii,'nf. ¡f these inLÌiisrrì:il Eicìliric's rLol"in. di(~
.il1lllal ckcrneiry retail ,,;de, f~)r"c:isi ¡,¡'cscmc'" iii r1li,
phn wì1 be acUusrcd, R.,'t~iìi ckctriç¡¡v cn!1"uiiipi,,)1
rose 2.3 percenr i111ril1ally from ¡CI'!I rliroii;h 21 Hìh. 'Ihis
im:rciise was despiri~ the combined imp.in, ofhiglwr
prict's :irel dccreas(:d ckcrririty deii.md durin~ the
ener¡.;,' crisis. The fl)feC;i.\ted av('ra¡:t' annual illCrCJS" in
tirm sales over the 2007 to 2027 peri()d is 2.0 pncc'iit.
The s"les f(m::cast takes a "'botwin up.' apPfl:ich.
summing ròrtc:ist~ of the rilniIwr of c'bt0l111'l" and ii,ag,'
për customer to produce ;i retail s:de: t()lì~Ca,L 1 ndi"ìdual
tore casts fijr our Lirgör industrial nhtomcr, (SChL'duk
25) include pIamicd or announced produccion ìncrc';¡sc,
12.5
Figure 2.9: Use per Customer
.,D
'-
-.OD S
'~~
'-
.-
~
~-'
_.
5:
:;~
He..:'0N
-' Reidential
..._ Commercial
M If ..gs ~M If !'OJ ..t"~")0 0 ~0 ~0 ..0 N N ~0 0 0 0 0 0:'N N N N N N N N N
~ '~l,D
J:.
~.1U
2
¿
'D.S
5:
1E
10,0
!.'"~
C)(jc;
2fr.;7 E!~'(:trìc !F~G)/w;:;:.a C,:-.rn
Staff_PR_058 Attachment A Page 8 of 11
.
Cr,¿lp¡O( ¿'... _O,\iClS ¿:f'cj R~SOLrCeS
Figure 2.10: Avista's Retail Sales Forecast
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
.s
š:8,000C!
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
"-mCl
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.
Š
0,9 C!II
0,7
0.5
0,2
OJ)
c'"..'"N00NN
EJ S!reel Lights
El Commercial
¡: Residential
o Industrial
c'"ooN
..DoN
8o'"
mm.:.~;5N gN
or (lc'cro,';¡",'\, 1"(:l11b(;r ,inò wood product¡ iiidustric's
;¡c' r:nl1l'iiig down from vt:rv high producrioii !evels,
which is con,istc:m with the ckdinc in hOl1s1lg 'idf" at
th~; n,HH)lu) leveL. 'fhi' lO:lLl f()feL~ibts ft.)r ¡:htsL: \ectöl"\
\\:L~rt. n.'dtii.::~d to ~IL:CDunt f(rr \.-i...cre,.It~d production.le\'l'l,; Anllcip,ll....j ',:ilc~ to :i('rpsp;i(t~ antl :icn)n;niri..~a!
c'luipiiicnc ,uppll''!'' Iuvc' incn:.".'d ,mel hh'al plants h:ive
.1I11i1UIi""d pl:iis w hire iiiore workas and iiicre:t'c~ their
otHI'm,
.Anmil (i.e., not \VcarlH,r corrected) retail dectricity sales
co ,\"i,t:1 Ctbt\lin('S iii 2(l(i(, \vcrc :-.78 billion k \1íIi,
Ik;lting dqrrc't d:ivs in 21106 \\'('1'" 93 pen.:cl1t of normal.
:il¡¡iust conipkteJy ofEce iii ¡'TI1S of tl1cr¡.'y me- hy Î 56
..oC'
""oC'
'"oN
'"
g ~oN
i-oN
..
¡;N
pt'rccli of HoniiaJ i:oo!in!l degree i.Ìv\,Tht' i()l'C:Cht
for 2027 is 13A billion kWh. ft'pröt'iitiii:- a lJi pn-cnlt
cOlnpoundi'cl incrcJsc' in ¡,euil qk\, S,'t' hgiin: 2. Hi.
Load Forecast
Lo,id lon:c¡ists arc derived from l'cLiil "'ll's. R.cta¡! s¡¡le,
in kilowatt hnurs .lIT converti"J iiit." avengc' incg:iwatt
hOLir, using:i regression model (( en,ure niOlithly jmel
shapes conform to history, The i:ompaiiy\ load forecast is
rcnned its Native Load. Native Lo,id IS net ofline losse,;
across the Avista transmissioii sysr.em.
N:ltive Lo:id gn)'wch is indicated iii Figure 2.1 !,
NNe the signitìcant drop in 20Ul dlltinf: rhe c:lltr~;'
'70e
Figure 2.11: Annual Net Native Load (aMW)
Î,600
1,500
1,400
1.300
1,200
1,100
1.000.900
Ò)(iÇ)~
""8N
Ii
~8N
:?OJ7 Ëlectric IRP 'J r.¡
i-
81
,.8C'
;.Ì--',¡':;¡;" (jja',
.._2005IRP
-52007IRP
§N
""l'),.
?:
2?oN
,;
¡:N
~oN
i-NoN
i-
~
,.NoN
,.,.
?:?:
StafCPR_058 Attachment A Page 90f11
.
.
.
~.J)~~(!::~ acu Rf;:;o~¡rCi)S
3.000
Figure 2.12: Calendar Year Peak Demand (MW)
2.800
2.600
:J.,¿OO
2,200
2,000
1.800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
'";;"J)C 8'"8oN
~"l
~8NgN
;:n~,h. riiv' ìcud.. r"rnin ¡ lflf7 to :.O()(1 :iIt.' nnr \\'car.h,.:r
iiur:iaiizcd. Tìil' :!(¡03 I RI) 1o;ld f~)rcc;l\t is pæ,..,ntcd f~ir
c'olHp,irisoH piirposc" Loads an' niodi'st1y !mvi,r III till'
200ì nu' cOliip:trcd with tÌlt' ~n05 UtE
Peak Demand Forecast
I'hl' pl'Jk ,km;inLÌ (()nx"q in cidi )',:;ir repri'sents the
tno"t i i k.tllv '",\Íllt' tiH due )-\.'tlL I t doe~ not n:-prL'seHt
dir" l'xtrl"'lilC tli'tll:ilhl fn "tar.1;,tic:il t(~n1b. rhe
l1"1.1"t lik\.:'h' pi'aK\.lctn.irhl ha~ J .,0 pelTt'llt cl1;l1'h.-e of
l'XC~'C(hli(e în ,tliy yc.tr. 'fhe p(\ik f()l'CC~iSt is produci.~d
h', runmi:~ .i l'cgrösion het\\'cc'ii .icnial peak demand Jnd
Hef. tutivc J~);hL 'Thç pi.~ak dt.'lnand u)n.:cast is in F:igur~
2.12. Peak loads ;ire expl'l'tcd to grmv en 2.4 perl't.nt
8N
~-~')f'en ~""c"l ,.~~0 0 N N 0..
~0 ~0 0 0NNN;'J ¡'\N
~::N
bct\\t'i'n 2007 ¡Hid 2017 (41.)(J l\l\X'i; ,md 2, I pacel1 over
rill;' (,mire 20-yi'ar fòn'ca'L
Hî!'torici! dat.1 art' signiÚcaiidy iiithlClKc'd bv extrcmi'
\V~,\thi~r data. The comparativdv low 1 ')t)'j pc'ak dl'iii;ind
tî~.,'l.ire was till result of;i warnit'r-tli:ia-avl',ige winte-i
peak day: the peak in 2liO(i \v:is the re'sult of;i hch)\v-
;ivn;ige winter pè.tk (hy. The 199\J and 200(i pc.;ik
ck'iiund veihics illustrate \Vh) rd)'iii,: on Cllilpüund
growth rat\Cs íeii the pe;ik demand torechl i, ;111
nversimpliiicJtion and why tllt' coiip:iny' pLUb to own or
control c'110l1gh gcnl'r~ti()n asset, and ,:omr:Kt' (( exceed
expectcd peak dc'wand,
Figure 2.13: Comparison of Summer and Winter Peak Demand (MW)
.::)Sumrner Average Load
ö Winter Average ~cad
~ .GOO
II:¡;;;"
:,500
2.1QC
2,200
2.DOO
1.900
i,aûo
1 700
1.400
1 300
: .200
c.o
R
J)Q~
ooC"J oN
I
NoN
("oN
o;
~
in
(;N
'!oN oN
::\Y? / El2ctrie 1r:~P ;\"'+;\::) C,-..ip
StafCPR_058 Attachment A Page 10 of 11
.
.
.
C:t1SutSr 2- 1_08(is ar~G P;esourC:8s
/\\,j:-u h:h \\'itlll');'l'd ~it~llìtti-.~lI)t sUr))ilicr kud gn)\vth
a:.¡ ;iir (ondirinni ng pct1t"r:rJdon has risi;:'rl iii itS service"
territory. That s:tid. i\vista eXl'i'cts m rcmain ci wintc'l"-
pc":ikin;¿ ¡,riE,y iii ,he i(wç,cc:ililc future. It i, possible
i!i¡ "c'rv mild \vime-¡ \vt';nlin :tnd cxrrc~1lclY hüi
\UIHì1l(Tij!lh.~ rt'n1pcr;.n.1\:~~ could l.:'sulr iri our :-ul nn ier
load e;.cl"edilli! our wimcrtimc demand kwl.Tliis
will hew .ì!1onnly. Figurc 2.13 ¡llustrati;'s our forccast of
WlrCi'r ii,d ,Ultiiik'r pc;i). dcill,l1ds through 201 i ;.mel the
'-'Xl',,'Ci,,-.j r.n1gi,~ ul the t~~ir~~CJ~r~ ~it (h~. NO pt~rccnt
( \ in ri,.. v !1ù.' k'\'cL \:(\~ l'xp...cr dDt loads in tbe :-U;l111ìiT
::ihÌ w¡¡i¡n of ,-.ic1i yeAr h,t\\' :i 1 (1 pi~rcem prolxibilicy or
high,'r dl.lIl ,¡¡,)\Vll. '.'hun:r pc::ik dcmand cxcccih
':UlUHH:T l"li';:ik ..k'ill;11hj iii ~dl ycar:-: th(' possibility 0(:\
qlllllll;,"l" peak bt'ìn~ hi~hi;~r than a \\-inter peak in rhe
S;1I11t' yc':ir h possihle.
FORECAST SCENARIOS
Th... i11\t"us\ioii ,0 r:n h,!\ cC'lnc;:iHT:ncd on rhc' Bast' C~.-l\e.
or ;,'IC't"tfh'ir':-' 'i;il..,... forec,~:-t. r:on'c)sr.in~ is
inhncondv UIld'rt.iln. .iiid :iiic'n¡;¡rivt dt'crricity growth
\cen;¡rio.. An.' u,,(.d to p¡-J.)víd..o insighr Jl1d guìdailt'(' f;)r
our rt~"'ui"c' acquisition plans. ,'1' ,he rcque:;t of the
T'dii¡ic:il Advimry Committet', hi~li and lo\v ,'conoiiic
1'')1'::'';'''(' WCl',' !,rl'p;,rt~d to illustr:itt iiow i':iri:ihk our load, . I it\din:C,ht 111Jg)t pc.
Tlit' princip:il driver of these' aIt,,'lïcitÌ\'Ò js tl1c
:;t:uidarcj deviation elf :llnu:illo;ids ht'IWc't:ll 1997 and
2n(l6. The nVCl'gc grm"ith rate TtlI' the I !.-VL';lr ix'rind
was ~.4 perc em. and the st;ind;ird (h~\'i:itjoii \\:1S 2.5
l't~rc('nt. Approxim:itdy 75 percell of year.-iiii-yè:ir
variation is driven by weather. leaving 25 pen:cnr C,) the
noii-wc;itlwr t,inors We' an:' illereSlt'd in èvaluatin~ here'.
The SO perccnt contïdciice interv,)! (with a Pi percc'nt
chance of exceedaiice on che high ,ii;k .iid a 10 perc..:m
Ch;ll1CC of cx(:et'd~ince 01~ the h,\v ~id(') pn)dU,,"i:d _:1 r;in:~!.'l~
nl" ~r()\\"th r()1 dlL" 2il...yC':ir pt.riod hCf:\'ct'J) !.,I) l't'n.:(";)f
and .'i J perce'llt. Thi, r::iigc is nJlJ~.diiy in Jiiil' .vidi iltheT
!,;iótic Northwest ttin:ci,t scenarios.
Avi,r:i is nm tt)rec:istiiig ;my ch:inges ¡o its ;c'lyicc
territory in the,e s('('!larios. Such cÌ\iigc". ,vc,c' tiie\"
to occur. would be outsidi' of rill' scope of' rhi, cXcTá..e.
.Alrerii:Hive fill:'C1Sts art' pre-scm",! in Fi~ti(' 2. ¡.1.
Dt"vdopcd speciticiily for the 1 R 1" thi'''' Jb~ri;¡tJn:
r¡-n"Cc'aSLS sÍlould nc~r be (on fu,-,,~d \\'ith "ithcl (d(lll1p.ï ny
or a?!ency r()n~casts -rhc ,(("nario", :1rt~ nor bUUll(1.H.Y
f()l',;"casrs in (hat the high t~.H\.~casr should nnr be
consídcl'('d the highest possihi(' load rr¡ij(,'(:ory: the: low
itll'ecl:;¡ docs not repl'eseii the lowest pnS\bk ¡(ire'er;"
2.250
Figure 2.14: Electric load Forecast Scenarios (aMW)
2_.000
_'~.20()7 IRP (Base Case)
_c&;'..__ High Case
-- Low Case
1.50
1,500
î,250
1.000 n, ....,~~
¡~iPh":'0,,;M..r~~""1J~~
1
I
!'0'in~
u)
g;
~'l8N
,~8N 5N
?'5D
ooN §N
ai8N
'"5N
en;;N
,.
~
O'oN
'"N
R
~Nor""i
..
25N
~8-N
;'.VíSid i.-:QIP 200 i ElS'.:tnc i p,p '; 11
Staff_PR_058 Attachment A Page 11 of 11
.
.
.
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-059
DATE PREPARD:
WITESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMNT:
TELEPHONE:
041112009
Don Kopczynsi
Linda Gervais
State & Federal Regulation
[phone]
If a customer receives both electrc and gas service, do they receive two separate bils, or one
combined bil? Has the Company identified any economic effciencies in meter reading and bil
preparation, or other cost savings, resulting from a dual customer? If so, please identify.
RESPONSE:
If a customer receives both electric and natural gas service from A vista, it is common practice that
they receive one bil for both services. From a meter reading perspective, there are some gained
efficiencies when reading with the mobile collector in that it is picking up two readings at a single
premise as it passes by. As the Company transitions to a Fixed Network, the network wil
continually read both the electrc and natual gas meters.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION.JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-064
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMNT:
TELEPHONE:
3/30/2009
Brian Hirschkorn
Brian Hirschkorn
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
REQUEST:
In Hirschkorn's Testimony, page 26, lines 11-17, he says "Including a conservative level of 50.0
cents per therm for the cost of gas and pipeline transportation, the proposed increase to Schedule
146 rates represents an average increase of2.0% in those customers' total gas bil, which is then
expressed on a relatively comparable basis to the proposed increase (decrease) to the other (sales)
service schedules, and the overall proposed increase of 3.0%." Please provide a detailed
explanation and all supporting executable electronically formatted analysis ilustrating:
a. How the Company has come up with each component of the combined cost of gas and
pipeline transportation estimate of 50.0 cents per thermo Also explain how you have determined
this to be a conservative leveL.
b. Why this comparison is used to qualify and quantify the reasonableness of the
Company's proposed increase even though the Company has no involvement in Schedule 146
outside of the services it directly provides (e.g. - distribution transportation service).
. RESPONSE:
a. At the time of the filing, a 50 cent/therm ($5.00/dekatherm) delivered cost of gas to the
Company's system was roughly based on market natural gas prices at the time - it was not
based on a specific price on a specific day. This would represent about 45-47 cents per therm
for the cost of the gas and about 3-5 cents for pipeline transportation. Tariff firm transportation
on Northwest Pipeline is about 3 cents per therm at a 100% load factor. This cost represented
a rough delivered price at that time in a declining market; many transporters hedge at least
some of their gas and, to the extent they hedged at least some of their anual gas requirements
prior to that time at higher prices, a 50 cent/therm cost would be conservative.
b. This comparison was made so an "apples-to-apples" total gas bil increase comparson could
be made.
.
.
.
.
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-065
DATE PREPARD:
WITESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
3/30/2009
Brian Hirschkorn
Brian Hirschkom
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
REQUEST:
In Hirschkorn's Testimony, page 27, lines 1-6, a char is shown displaying the "Relative rates of
Return by Service Schedule," please provide a detailed explanation and all supporting executable
electronically fonnatted analysis supporting the Company's decision to move Schedule 146 away
from full cost of service while moving all the other Schedules toward full cost of service.
RESPONSE:
The Company considers a relative rate of retur of 1.28 and 1.29 to essentially be the same,
therefore, the Company did not believe that the rates for Schedule 146 were being moved away
from the cost of service. The proposed increase to the Schedule 146 rate is roughly half of the per
therm (margin) increase to the rates under Schedule 111 and customers switching from sales
service to transportation would provide less distrbution margin to the Company. While this
wasn't the sole rationale for the proposed increase for Schedule 146, it was a consideration along
with the cost of service.
.
.
.
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-066
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
3/30/2009
Brian Hirschkom
Brian Hirschkorn
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
REQUEST:
In Hirschkorn's Testimony, page 27, lines 18-20, he says "Large General Servce Schedule 111
has a four-tier declining-block rate strcture and is generally for customers who consistently use
over 200 therms/month." Aside from the rate design, please provide a detailed explanation and all
supporting executable electronically formatted studies and analysis ilustrating how the Company
provides guidance that should always ensure its customers are on the most appropriate rate
schedule.
RESPONSE:
The Company runs a "rate schedule comparson" program every month that compares a
customer's annual bil under the present rates for Schedule 101 and 111. The program uses a 5%
or $300 parameter, i.e., if a customer's anual bil would have been 5 %, or $300 less under the
other schedule, that customer is notified and switched to the more advantageous rate schedule.
.
.
.
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-067
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
3/30/2009
Brian Hirschkorn
Brian Hirschkorn
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
In Hirschkorn's Testimony, page 28, lines 24-26, he says "The Company believes that the
customer!basic charge should recover a reasonable portion of the fixed costs of providing service."
Please provide a detailed explanation and all supporting executable electronically formatted
analysis ilustrating what percent of fixed costs the Company considers a "reasonable portion" to
be collected in the customer!basic charge.
RESPONSE:
The Company believes that, at a minimum, the basic/customer charge should recover the full
monthly cost associated with the meter, service line, meter reading and biling. These costs are the
(average) minimum incremental costs associated with providing service to a customer's premise.
The Company believes that recovery of these costs though the customer charge represents a
"reasonable portion" of the total fixed costs.
.
.
.
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-068
DATE PREPARED:
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
3/30/2009
Brian Hirschkorn
Brian Hirschkorn
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
In Hirschkorn' s Testimony, page 29, lines 1-4, he says "The monthly cost associated with recovery
of only the average meter and serice line for these customers is $6.03 per month." Please provide
a detailed explanation and all supporting executable electronically formatted analysis ilustrating
exactly how the basic charges for Schedule 101 were calculated and whether the methodology for
calculating this charge has been accepted in Case Nos. A VU-G-04-1 and A VU-G-08-1.
RESPONSE:
There was no specific methodology used to develop the proposed increase to the basic charge. In
developing a proposed increase to the basic charge, the Company considered both the fixed costs
associated with providing service and the overall increase in rates (3.1 %) for Schedule 101. In
AVU-G-04-1, the Company proposed increasing the basic charge from $3.28 to $5.00 and the
Commission rejected the Company's proposaL. In AVU-G-08-1, the Commission approved the
Settlement which increased the basic charge from $3.28 to $4.00.
.
.
.
JUISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
REQUEST:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-069
DATE PREPARD:
WITESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
3/30/2009
Brian Hirschkorn
Brian Hirschkom
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
In Hirschkorn's Testimony, page 30, lines 2-12, he describes how the Company arrves at its
minimum charge for Schedule 111. Please provide a detailed explanation and all supporting
executable electronically formatted analysis ilustrating why the process described is appropriate
in determining the minimum charge. (e.g. - why was 192 therms used, is there substantial shifting
between schedules, etc.)
RESPONSE:
The present breakeven level between the schedules is 192 therms. As described in Production
Request Staff-066, a rate schedule comparison is run monthly comparng a customer's anual bil
under the present rates for Schedules 101 and 111. Changing that level significantly under
proposed rates would cause unnecessary shifting of customers between the two schedules and a
corresponding revenue shortfall to the Company.
.
.
.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-0l 1 A VU-G-09-0l
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-070
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
3/30/2009
Brian Hirschkorn
Brian Hirschkorn
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
REQUEST:
In Hirschkorn's Testimony, page 30, lines 6-9, he says "This application maintains the present
(breakeven) relationship between the schedules, and wil minimize customer shifting between the
Schedules." Please provide a detailed explanation and all supporting executable electronically
formatted analysis ilustrating the direct meaning of the breakeven relationship, how the breakeven
prevents shifting, and provide information for customers who have transferred between Schedule
111 and Schedule 101 in the last two years. For every customer please show: transfer date,
Schedule, median monthly usage, and average monthly usage.
RESPONSE:
The breakeven relationship is a relatively simple calculation to determine the level of usage
between Schedule 101 and 111 where the monthly bil is equivalent. Below is the formula using
the base tarff rates for the two schedules.
$4.00 + $1.19854X = $167.52 + $0.34701X
$0.85153X = $163.52
X= 192
Significantly changing the break even level of 192 therms per month could result in unnecessary
shifting of customers between the schedules.
Attached in "StafCPR_070 Attachment A" and "StafCPR_070 Attachment B" are files showing
the customers that were switched between Schedules 101 and 111 during 2007 and 2008. Also
shown is each customer's most recent twelve-month usage. Due to the voluminous nature of the
attached files, they are being provided in electronic format only.
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AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-072
DATE PREPARD:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
3/30/2009
Brian Hirschkorn
Brian Hirschkorn
State & Federal Reg.
[phone]
REQUEST:
In Hirschkorn's Testimony, page 15, lines 26-27, page 16, lines 1-2, he says "The Company
examined the average annual usage of its Idaho residential all-electrc (no natural gas) customers
that have received LIHEAP assistance and those that have not received assistance. Over a recent
twelve month period, the average anual usage for customers that have received assistance was
1,900 KWhs greater than for those customers that did not." Please provide a detailed explanation
and all supporting executable electronically formatted analysis ilustrating whether the Company
has studied similar weather normalized comparsons for the combined electric and gas customers
to evaluate how usage trends may have changed over time and amongst different users.
RESPONSE:
The information described in my testimony was not weather normalized. It is based on actual
twelve-month usage. The Company did a similar quer of its biling system for customers who
have both electric and natural gas service. Below is a table showing the results of the query for
customers who have received LIHEAP and those who have not. If a customer has received energy
assistance, it is noted in our customer billing system. The Company has not studied usage trends
for these customers over time.
Received LIHEAP
Elec. Only Elec.& Gas
NoLIHEAP
Elec. Only Elec.& Gas
A vg. Anual Kwh Usage 14,807 9,901 12,908 11,135
.
.
.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION
JUSDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
A VU-E-09-01 1 A VU-G-09-01
IPUC
Production Request
Staff-088
DATE PREPARED:
WITSS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
03/27/2009
Brian Hirschkom
Randy Barcus
Finance
[phone]
REQUEST
Please provide copies of all 2008 and 2009 monthly variance analysis reports completed to date
showing how actual monthly loads in 2008 and 2009 compare to forecasted loads. Please provide
a brief narative to explain the varance in each month or season. Please identify any sectors whose
load is growing faster or slower than expected and discuss reasons for the changes in expected
growth rate.
RESPONSE:
Please see the four attached Excel files containing the information requested.
For 2008 please see the following:
"Staff DR 088 Attachment A"
"Staff DR 088 Attachment B"
For 2009, which are completed with information through Februar 2009, please see the following:
"Staff DR 088 Attachment C"
"Staff DR 088 Attachment D"
Due to the voluminous nature of the attached fies, they are being provided in electronic format
only.
Important Information: These files include variance analysis information for "as biled" kWh and
therms for Idaho, Washington and Oregon, which excludes "unbiled" adjustments that conform
financial data to calendar month periods.
The narative is included in the file as par of the normal varance reporting schema, and
statements are also imbedded in the naratives which pertain to faster or slower than expected
growth or contraction as well as the apparent reasons for changes in these growth rates.