20211129PAC to Staff 1-4.pdf

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November 29,2021
JanNoriyuki
Idatro Public Utilities Commission
472W. Washington
Boise,ID 83702-5918
i [e-mail]. eov (C)
RE: ID PAC-E2I-20
IPUC Set I (14)
Please find enclosed Roclry Mountain Power's Responses to IP-UC ld Set Data Requcsts 1-4.
Ifyou have any questions, please feel free to call me at [phone].
Sineercly,
--lsl-J. Ted Weston
Man4ger, Regulation
Enclostres
PAC-E-21-20 / Rocky Mountain Power
November 29,2021
IPUC DataRequest I
IPUC Data Request I
Please explain why the load forecast in Case No. PAC-E-21-20 is higher than the
load forecast in Case No. PAC-E -20-16 over the entire period from 2021 through
2040. Please also provide a detailed explanation for the differences over the next
three years.
Response to IPUC Data Request I
The load forecast in Case No. PAC-E-21-20 reflects additional expansions for
large customers on PacifiCorp's system. ln202l, the load forecast in Case No.
PAC-E-2O-16 anticipated a slower recovery from ttre COVID-I9 pandemic
impacts than the load forecast in Case No. PAC-E-21-20. Over the next three
years, the increase is also driven by increased actual load in the residential sector
driving a higher load forecast in Case No. PAC-E-21-20.
Recordholder: Lee Elder
Sponsor:To Be Determined
PAC-E-21-20 / Rocky Mountain Power
November 29,2021
IPUC Data Request 2
IPUC Data Request 2
Please explain why this year's natural gas forecast at Henry Hub is higher than
last year's forecast over the next three years, and then lower than last year's
forecast thereafter.
Response to IPUC Data Request 2
For clarification purposes, the Company assumes that "this year's natural gas
forecast" and "last year's forecast" is intended to be in reference to the statement
in the Company's Application in this proceeding, specifically Section III (Natural
Gas Price Forecast), which states:
"The Company's most recent Official Forward Price Curve (OFPC) was prepared
on September 30, 2021(2109 OFPC). The official forward price curve used in
Case No. PACI ]E-20-16 was prepared on September 30,2020 (20W OFPC).
Table 2 provides the 2109 OFPC natural gas prices summarized annually by
market hub. The 2009 OFPC is provided for reference only. Generally, gas prices
in the 2109 OFPC are up slightly over the next five years, but down slightly
thereafter compared to the 2009 OFPC".
Based on the foregoing, "this year's natural gas forecast" is the September 30,
2021 Ql09 OFPC), and o'last year's forecast" is the September 30, 2020 (2009
OFPC), the Company responds as follows:
Over the last year as the economy continues to recover from the COVID-I9
pandemic, energy demand has increased faster than the return of natural gas
production. While natural gas production levels have seen a slight increase from
2020 levels 89.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfld) to 91.3 Bcfld in 2021 it is not
enough to meet demand. Production levels are expected to remain at current
levels through the winter of 2021 . 2022 is expected to see a slight increase in
associated gas supply (from oil) and should contribute to modest supply growth
over coming years. However, strong Asian and European gas prices continue to
athact strong imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States.
Looking out past three years, the short-term LNG demand growth is expected to
taper offat a decreasing rate. With higher short-term Henry Hub natural gas
prices, the Henry Hub market out the curve, expects domestic production to
increase to meet that demand which is contributing to the lower prices in the outer
years. [n addition, natural gas demand from the power sector is forecasted to
decrease with the rapid growth of renewable energy generation along with new
technologies which is helping to add downward pressure on Henry Hub in the
long run.
PAC-EAL}0 / Rocky Mountain Power
November 29,2021
IPUC Data Request 2
Recordholder:
Sponsor:
Kerstin Rock / Paul Wood / Stephen Fendrich
To Be Determined
PAC-E-21-20 / Rocky Mountain Power
November 29,2021
IPUC Data Request 3
IPUC Data Request 3
Please confirm that Sunny Bar Ranch is counted twice in Table 3 of ttre
Application. If confirmed, please provide a corrected Table 3 in the Application.
Response to IPUC Data Request 3
Referencing the Company's Application in this proceeding, specifically Table 3,
the Company responds as follows:
Table 3 references two executed qualifring facility (QF) power purchase
agreements (PPA) between PacifiCorp / Utah Power and Light Company (UP&L)
and Nicholson's Sunny Bar Ranch / Sunny Bar Ranch, LLLP:
No. 7: a temporary extension of its legacy QF PPA; anda
o No. 17: a new long-term QF PPA, which will be effective when approved by
the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) and will supersede the legacy
QF PPA.
While the listed start and end dates overlap, only one QF PPA will be in effect at
any given time.
Recordholder:Dan MacNeil / Irene Heng
To Be DeterminedSponsor:
PAC-EALA0 / Rocky Mountain Power
November 29,2021
IPUC DataRequest 4
IPUC Data Request 4
Please confirm that Sunny Bar Ranch is not double counted in the Company's IRP
model used to determine IRP-based avoided cost rates.
Reponse to IPUC Data Request 4
Confirmed. The capacity for Sunny Bar Ranch is only included mce at any point
in time in the inputs used to calculate avoided cost rates.
Reoordholder: Dan MacNeil
Sponsor:To Be Deter,mined