The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink About20230913IPC to Staff 6 Attachment - 2024 2025 Position Changes.pdfPosition Changes 2021 Integrated Resource Plan 2024 & 2025 CPCN Filings (Will be Included in the 2023 Integrated Resource Plan) •50th Percentile System Peak Load Forecast •70th Percentile System Peak Load Forecast •Load Forecast Generated September 2021 •Load Forecast Generated April 2023 •LOLE Target of 0.05 event-days/year •LOLE Target of 0.1 event-days/year •330 MW CBM Year-Round •200 MW CBM Mar-Oct, 0 MW CBM Nov-Feb •2020 EFORd Data •2022 NERC GADS & TADS EFORd Data •4 Test Years of Historical Data •6 Test Years of Historical Data Throughout the planning process, the Company has made updates to its load forecast, transmission assumptions, and introduced enhancements to the R-CAT December 8, 2022, IRPAC Presentation on Reliability & Capacity Assessment 2024 Current RCAT Inputs Flexible Resources July Capacity (MW) Ma r k e t Firm Transmission 380 Transmission Contracts 76 Emergency (CBM)200 Hy d r o Brownlee 600 Oxbow 200 Hells Canyon 300 Ga s Bridger 354 Langley Gulch 292 Bennett Mountain 169 Danskin 248 Co a l Bridger 354 Valmy 134 Variable & Energy Limited Resources Project Nameplate (MW) Ex i s t i n g Solar 436 Wind 725 Demand Response 320 Run of River Hydro 539 COGEN 151 20 2 3 Stand-Alone 4-Hour BESS 103 Solar + 4-Hour BESS 1:1 40 20 2 4 Stand-Alone 4-Hour BESS 24 Solar + 4-Hour BESS 1:0.6 100 2024 Peak Load of 3,830 MW 2024 Position Changes •2021 IRP •Incremental Shortfall Increase from 2023 to 2024 was ~85 MW 186 MW Shortfall December 2021 •Include 2023 RFP Resources •Update LOLE Target to 0.1 •Update System Peak Load Forecast to 70th •Update Load Forecast •Incorporate NERC GADS EFORd Update •Update CBM Assumptions 103 MW Shortfall January 2023 •Add 100 MW PV + 20 MW 4-Hour BESS •Add 100 MW PV + 60 MW 4-Hour BESS 37 MW Shortfall January 2023 7 MW Shortfall January 2023 •Add 12 MW 4- Hour BESS 4 MW Length January 2023 2024 CPCN •Update Langley Gulch Monthly Capacity Assumptions •Update Load Forecast (Incorporated 2023 Loss Study) •Add 24 MW 4- Hour BESS •Position Dependent on Hydro Maintenance 8 MW Shortfall May 2023 13 MW Length May 2023 2025 Current RCAT Inputs Flexible Resources July Capacity (MW) Ma r k e t Firm Transmission 380 Transmission Contracts 0 Emergency (CBM)200 Hy d r o Brownlee 600 Oxbow 200 Hells Canyon 300 Ga s Bridger 354 Langley Gulch 292 Bennett Mountain 169 Danskin 248 Co a l Bridger 354 Valmy 134 Variable & Energy Limited Resources Project Nameplate (MW) Ex i s t i n g Solar 642 Wind 725 Demand Response 320 Run of River Hydro 539 COGEN 151 20 2 3 Stand-Alone 4-Hour BESS 103 Solar + 4-Hour BESS 1:1 40 20 2 4 Stand-Alone 4-Hour BESS 24 Solar + 4-Hour BESS 1:0.6 100 20 2 5 Stand-Alone 4-Hour BESS 77 Stand-Alone 4-Hour Bess Energy Storage Agreement 150 Solar Penetration Increases Include 2025 CPCN Resources Transmission Contract Ends in 2024 2025 Peak Load of 4,001 MW 2025 Position Changes •2021 IRP •Incremental Shortfall Increase from 2024 to 2025 was ~125 MW 311 MW Shortfall December 2021 •Include 2023 RFP Resources •Update LOLE Target to 0.1 •Update System Peak Load Forecast to 70th •Update Load Forecast •Incorporate NERC GADS EFORd Update •Update CBM Assumptions 265 MW Shortfall January 2023 •Add 100 MW PV + 20 MW 4-Hour BESS in 2024 •Add 100 MW PV + 60 MW 4-Hour BESS in 2024 200 MW Shortfall January 2023 167 MW Shortfall January 2023 •Add 12 MW 4- Hour BESS in 2024 156 MW Shortfall January 2023 •Update Langley Gulch Monthly Capacity Assumptions •Update Load Forecast (Incorporated 2023 Loss Study) •Add 24 MW 4- Hour BESS •Position Dependent on Hydro Maintenance •Add 150 MW 4- Hour BESS Energy Storage Agreement & 77 MW 4-Hour BESS 178 MW Shortfall May 2023 6 MW Length May 2023