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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20090812IPC to Staff post-hearing.pdfeslDA~POR~ An IDACORP Company BARTON L. KLINE Lead Counsel August 11, 2009 VIA HAND DELIVERY Jean D. Jewell, Secretary Idaho Public Utilities Commission 472 West Washington Street P.O. Box 83720 Boise, Idaho 83720-0074 Re: Case No. IPC-E-09-03 LANGLEY GULCH POWER PLANT Dear Ms. Jewell: Enclosed for filing are an original and three (3) copies of Idaho Power Company's Response to the Commission's Post-Hearing Information Request in the above matter. Very truly yours,~\cL Barton L. Kline BLK:csb Enclosures P.O. Box 70 (83707) 1221 W. Idaho St. Boise, 10 83702 BARTON L. KLINE, ISB #1526 LISA D. NORDSTROM, ISB #5733 Idaho Power Company P.O. Box 70 Boise, Idaho 83707 Telephone: 208-388-2682 Facsimile: 208-388-6936 bkline(cidahopower.com I nordstrom (cidahopower. com RECEIVED 2009 AUG II PM 4: 55 IDAHO PUBliC UTILITIES COMMISS Attorneys for Idaho Power Company Street Address for Express Mail: 1221 West Idaho Street Boise, Idaho 83702 BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S APPLICATION FOR A CERTIFICATE OF PUBLIC CONVENIENCE AND NECESSITY FOR THE LANGLEY GULCH POWER PLANT. ) ) CASE NO. IPC-E-09-03 ) ) IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S ) RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S ) POST-HEARING INFORMATION ) REQUEST COMES NOW, Idaho Power Company ("Idaho Powet' or "the Company"), and in response to the Commission's July 28, 2009, post-hearing information request, herewith submits the following information: IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST-1 REQUEST: As per Commission request and as a follow-up to an offer of evidence at hearing by Company witness Ric Gale, please provide weather normalized monthly energy sales from August 2008 through July 2009. In addition, please provide the August 2008, December 2008, and May 2009 monthly energy forecasts that were made for 2009 conditions of 50% load probability. Include a brief narrative to describe and discuss the data. RESPONSE TO REQUEST: The requested information is enclosed and includes: 1. Weather Normalized Energy Sales - January 2008 through July 2009; 2. Sales Forecast - August 2008; 3. Sales Forecast - December 2008; and 4. Sales Forecast - May 2009. Idaho Power prepares an annual load forecast. It is used for several different purposes, including resource planning, financial forecasting, and preparation of the Operating Plan for risk management purposes. During the course of a year, the load forecast may be updated to account for new information and material changes. In Mr. Bokenkamp's testimony in this case, he discussed the three load forecasts that are presented in this Response. The earliest of the three forecasts, the August 2008 forecast, was used to start the preparation of the 2009 IRP, which wil be filed by the end of this year. The December 2008 forecast is an update to the August 2008 forecast that was performed in response to the deteriorating conditions that were becoming evident in the Company's service area at that time. The December 2008 update adjusted the IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST - 2 residential and commercial sector to reflect a prolonged slowdown in housing and consumer spending. Residential new customer growth rates (initially forecasted to decline until the first quarter of 2009) were extended to continue the decline into 2010 and later rebound to the point of the original new customer forecast in 2016. Commercial customer growth counts were lowered based on a model driven by residential customer growth. Because economic conditions continued to degrade, the Company performed another update to its load forecast in May of 2009. This update addressed the forecast loads for special contract customers. In this update, the load forecast was reduced again, with the largest reductions (94 aMW and 97 MW during peak hours) occurring in late 2009. Load forecasts are generally differentiated to reflect a range of load uncertainty due to weather. The three case load forecasts prescribed in this Response assume median temperatures and median precipitation, Le., there is a 50 percent chance that loads wil be higher or lower than the expected case loads due to colder-than-median or hotter-than-median temperatures or wetter-than-median or dryer-than-median precipitation. The weather normalized energy sales and forecast energy sales in each of the three sales forecasts are reported in megawatthours ("MWhs"). In addition, the weather normalized energy sales and energy sales in the three forecasts are sales that occur on a billng month basis and do not include line losses. The Company's weather- adjustment model adjusts actual billng month electricity sales for abnormal weather, IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST - 3 and the resulting weather-adjusted biled sales are the most accurate data to compare to forecast data to measure forecast accuracy. Weather-adjusted sales for July 2009 were just 18,191 MWh (24 aMW) lower than predicted in the May 2009 forecast, a 1.3 percent difference. In addition, the May 2009 forecast included 6,696 MWh in July 2009 for Hoku Materials, Inc. ("Hoku"), a customer that has recently reconsidered their initial ramp-up schedule and are now expected to begin operation in December of 2009. Excluding Hoku, the July 2009 forecast would have only been 0.8 percent higher than the July 2009 weather adjusted sales figure. Excluding Hoku, the December 2008 and August 2008 forecasts would have only been 1.7 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, higher than the July 2009 weather adjusted sales figure. The recession that began in December 2007 turned out to be far more severe than expected. As a result, each successive Idaho Power load forecast was lowered as economic conditions worsened. The recession also caused the delay in the rollout plans that Hoku had originally planned. Conditions also changed at Micron Technology and their loads contracted by 30 percent. The national economy is now bottoming and the latest economic forecasts project that the recession will be over by late this year. With the recession nearing its end, the economic growth prospects for southern Idaho are good. The response to this Request was prepared by Barr Smith, Planning Analyst, Idaho Power Company, in consultation with Barton L. Kline, Lead Counsel, Idaho Power Company. IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST - 4 DATED at Boise, Idaho, this 11'" day of A~ ~ BARTON L. KLINE Attorney for Idaho Power Company IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST - 5 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I HEREBY CERTIFY that on this 11th day of August 2009 I served a true and correct copy of IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST upon the following named parties by the method indicated below, and addressed to the following: Commission Staff Scott Woodbury Deputy Attorney General Idaho Public Utilities Commission 472 West Washington P.O. Box 83720 Boise, Idaho 83720-0074 Industrial Customers of Idaho Power and Northwest and Intermountain Power Producers Coalition Peter J. Richardson, Esq. RICHARDSON & O'LEARY PLLC 515 North 27th Street P.O. Box 7218 Boise, Idaho 83702 Dr. Don Reading Ben Johnson Associates 6070 Hil Road Boise, Idaho 83703 Snake River Allance Ken Miller Snake River Alliance P.O. Box 1731 Boise, Idaho 83701 Idaho Irrigation Pumpers Association, Inc. Eric L. Olsen RACINE, OLSON, NYE, BUDGE & BAILEY, CHARTERED P.O. Box 1391 201 East Center Pocatello, Idaho 83204-1391 -- Hand Delivered U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email Scott.Woodburv(cpuc.idaho.gov Hand Delivered -- U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email peter(crichardsonandolearv.com Hand Delivered -- U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email dreading(cmindspring.com Hand Delivered -- U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email kmiller(csnakeriveralliance.org Hand Delivered -- U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email elo(cracinelaw.net IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST - 6 Anthony Yankel Yankel & Associates, Inc. 29814 Lake Road Bay Vilage, Ohio 44140 Hand Delivered -- U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email tony(cyankel.net Idaho Conservation League Betsy Bridge Idaho Conservation League 710 North Sixth Street P.O. Box 844 Boise, Idaho 83701 Hand Delivered -- U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email bbridge(cwildidaho.org Northwest and Intermountain Power Producers Coalition Susan K. Ackerman 9883 NW Nottage Drive Portland, Oregon 97229 Hand Delivered -- U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email Susan.k.ackerman(ccomcast.net Community Action Partnership Association Of Idaho Brad M. Purdy Attorney at Law 2019 North 1 ih Street Boise, Idaho 83702 Hand Delivered -- U.S. Mail _ Overnight Mail FAX -- Email bmpurdy(chotmail.com (1/tL Barton L. Kline IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO THE COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST-7 BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTiliTIES COMMISSION CASE NO. IPC-E-09-03 IDAHO POWER COMPANY RESPONSE TO COMMISSION'S POST-HEARING INFORMATION REQUEST We a t h e r A d j u s t e d S a l e s (m e g a w a t t h o u r s ) Mi c r o n Si m p l o t Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Ir r i g a t i o n In d u s t r i a l Te c h n o l o g y Fe r t i l z e r IN L Ra f t R i v e r HO K U To t a l Ja n u a r y 2 0 0 8 60 4 , 1 0 1 35 0 , 9 8 5 1, 5 7 5 20 3 , 2 4 0 56 , 9 7 9 16 , 9 4 9 23 , 8 9 8 6, 2 3 2 0 1, 2 6 3 , 9 6 0 Fe b r u a r y 2 0 0 8 55 9 , 0 9 3 33 9 , 6 3 0 1, 3 7 4 20 1 , 0 7 4 53 , 3 4 9 15 , 8 2 3 21 , 8 5 0 5, 2 9 4 0 1, 1 9 7 , 4 8 7 Ma r c h 2 0 0 8 47 4 , 6 5 6 31 9 , 7 2 8 1, 6 0 5 18 3 , 2 5 3 56 , 4 1 2 16 , 4 7 4 19 , 4 1 3 5, 1 6 0 0 1, 0 7 6 , 6 9 9 Ap r i l 20 0 8 40 6 , 0 4 7 30 6 , 7 2 7 17 , 7 4 3 18 3 , 0 9 3 54 , 1 2 6 15 , 9 7 9 16 , 1 2 7 4, 5 8 6 0 1, 0 0 4 , 4 2 8 Ma y 2 0 0 8 34 4 , 7 0 6 29 3 , 9 4 2 13 2 , 6 4 6 18 5 , 9 0 7 56 , 4 8 1 13 , 8 4 2 17 , 3 5 2 4, 4 1 1 0 1, 0 4 9 , 2 8 7 Ju n e 2 0 0 8 33 1 , 0 7 6 31 3 , 4 0 3 29 7 , 3 1 5 19 1 , 5 8 1 55 , 3 0 1 10 , 9 5 1 15 , 4 3 5 4, 2 0 4 0 1, 2 1 9 , 2 6 5 Ju l y 2 0 0 8 37 3 , 3 7 8 33 7 , 3 2 1 42 9 , 1 6 0 19 4 , 4 0 9 58 , 1 0 9 14 , 8 0 5 16 , 3 1 8 4, 3 6 4 0 1, 4 2 7 , 8 6 3 Au g u s t 2 0 0 8 42 9 , 9 6 3 35 3 , 0 8 2 42 8 , 3 7 6 20 0 , 3 7 5 57 , 8 4 4 16 , 0 1 0 16 , 5 5 9 4, 2 4 6 0 1, 5 0 6 , 4 5 2 Se p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 39 7 , 3 5 1 34 8 , 8 4 1 34 3 , 1 4 7 19 9 , 6 3 0 54 , 4 9 4 15 , 6 4 9 13 , 2 7 3 3, 9 4 6 0 1, 3 7 6 , 3 3 2 Oc t o b e r 2 0 0 8 33 1 , 4 6 3 32 4 , 6 6 9 16 8 , 5 7 9 18 1 , 7 7 5 55 , 2 3 8 15 , 7 6 5 16 , 3 7 8 4, 2 9 7 0 1, 0 9 8 , 1 6 3 No v e m b e r 2 0 0 8 39 2 , 1 4 3 31 7 , 4 0 0 18 , 9 6 4 19 5 , 4 9 8 51 , 5 9 3 15 , 1 3 3 18 , 0 0 3 4, 5 0 8 0 1, 0 1 3 , 2 4 2 De c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 51 6 , 6 3 6 33 8 , 5 4 8 2, 3 8 6 18 8 , 6 2 4 51 , 1 2 7 13 , 8 8 8 20 , 3 7 9 5, 6 2 5 0 1, 1 3 7 , 2 1 4 Ja n u a r y 2 0 0 9 60 8 , 4 4 9 33 2 , 3 1 6 1, 5 8 7 19 0 , 6 5 0 50 , 9 4 7 14 , 1 6 4 22 , 4 1 6 5, 4 7 4 0 1, 2 2 6 , 0 0 2 Fe b r u a r y 2 0 0 9 54 6 , 1 6 9 33 6 , 5 2 8 1, 4 4 7 17 8 , 6 7 2 45 , 5 0 7 14 , 5 4 8 19 , 2 8 7 4, 8 2 8 0 1, 1 4 6 , 9 8 6 Ma r c h 2 0 0 9 47 5 , 3 9 5 31 1 , 6 4 3 1, 7 9 3 17 0 , 2 5 2 48 , 7 2 0 16 , 1 4 8 19 , 6 2 9 4, 9 0 7 0 1, 0 4 8 , 4 8 7 Ap r i l 20 0 9 41 1 , 9 7 3 30 3 , 8 5 1 18 , 6 3 8 18 0 , 2 9 8 46 , 1 7 5 15 , 6 0 4 17 , 1 0 9 4, 4 0 6 0 99 8 , 0 5 4 Ma y 2 0 0 9 33 2 , 9 7 7 28 2 , 1 7 8 13 2 , 9 2 3 16 9 , 9 1 8 47 , 1 5 6 11 , 5 5 1 15 , 5 7 1 4, 2 9 4 0 99 6 , 5 6 8 Ju n e 2 0 0 9 32 7 , 2 2 6 30 1 , 0 0 7 25 3 , 2 8 9 18 7 , 1 3 2 45 , 3 0 6 3, 0 8 8 15 , 2 8 5 3, 7 0 6 0 1, 1 3 6 , 0 3 9 Ju l y 2 0 0 9 36 9 , 0 3 7 31 8 , 1 5 4 43 6 , 7 6 6 18 3 , 8 7 1 46 , 7 0 5 15 , 8 3 1 12 , 9 0 8 4, 1 0 1 0 1, 3 8 7 , 3 7 4 Ma y 2 0 0 9 S a l e s F o r e c a s t - S O / 5 0 P r o b a b i l t y (m e g a w a t t h o u r s ) Fo r e c a s t Mi c r o n Si m p l o t vs W e a t h e r Pe r c e n t Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Ir r i g a t i o n In d u s t r i a l Te c h n o l o g y Fe r t i l z e r IN L Ra f t R i v e r HO K U To t a l Ad j u s t e d Di f f e r e n c e Ja n u a r y 2 0 0 8 60 4 , 1 0 1 35 0 , 9 8 5 1, 5 7 5 20 3 , 2 4 0 56 , 9 7 9 16 , 9 4 9 23 , 8 9 8 6, 2 3 2 0 1, 2 6 3 , 9 6 0 0 0. 0 % Fe b r u a r y 2 0 0 8 55 9 , 0 9 3 33 9 , 6 3 0 1, 3 7 4 20 1 , 0 7 4 53 , 3 4 9 15 , 8 2 3 21 , 8 5 0 5, 2 9 4 0 1, 1 9 7 , 4 8 7 0 0. 0 % Ma r c h 2 0 0 8 47 4 , 6 5 6 31 9 , 7 2 8 1, 6 0 5 18 3 , 2 5 3 56 , 4 1 2 16 , 4 7 4 19 , 4 1 3 5, 1 6 0 0 1, 0 7 6 , 6 9 9 0 0. 0 % Ap r i l 20 0 8 40 6 , 0 4 7 30 6 , 7 2 7 17 , 7 4 3 18 3 , 0 9 3 54 , 1 2 6 15 , 9 7 9 16 , 1 2 7 4, 5 8 6 0 1, 0 0 4 , 4 2 8 0 0. 0 % Ma y 2 0 0 8 34 4 , 7 0 6 29 3 , 9 4 2 13 2 , 6 4 6 18 5 , 9 0 7 56 , 4 8 1 13 , 8 4 2 17 , 3 5 2 4, 4 1 1 0 1, 0 4 9 , 2 8 7 0 0. 0 % Ju n e 2 0 0 8 33 1 , 0 7 6 31 3 , 4 0 3 29 7 , 3 1 5 19 1 , 5 8 1 55 , 3 0 1 10 , 9 5 1 15 , 4 3 5 4, 2 0 4 0 1, 2 1 9 , 2 6 5 0 0. 0 % Ju l y 2 0 0 8 37 3 , 3 7 8 33 7 , 3 2 1 42 9 , 1 6 0 19 4 , 4 0 9 58 , 1 0 9 14 , 8 0 5 16 , 3 1 8 4, 3 6 4 0 1, 4 2 7 , 8 6 3 0 0. 0 % Au g u s t 2 0 0 8 42 9 , 9 6 3 35 3 , 0 8 2 42 8 , 3 7 6 20 0 , 3 7 5 57 , 8 4 4 16 , 0 1 0 16 , 5 5 9 4, 2 4 6 0 1, 5 0 6 , 4 5 2 0 0. 0 % Se p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 39 7 , 3 5 1 34 8 , 8 4 1 34 3 , 1 4 7 19 9 , 6 3 0 54 , 4 9 4 15 , 6 4 9 13 , 2 7 3 3, 9 4 6 0 1, 3 7 6 , 3 3 2 0 0. 0 % Oc t o b e r 2 0 0 8 33 1 , 4 6 3 32 4 , 6 6 9 16 8 , 5 7 9 18 1 , 7 7 5 55 , 2 3 8 15 , 7 6 5 16 , 3 7 8 4, 2 9 7 0 1, 0 9 8 , 1 6 3 0 0. 0 % No v e m b e r 2 0 0 8 39 2 , 1 4 3 31 7 , 4 0 0 18 , 9 6 4 19 5 , 4 9 8 51 , 5 9 3 15 , 1 3 3 18 , 0 0 3 4, 5 0 8 0 1, 0 1 3 , 2 4 2 0 0. 0 % De c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 51 7 , 1 2 3 33 8 , 6 9 5 2, 3 8 6 18 8 , 6 2 4 51 , 1 2 7 13 , 8 8 8 20 , 3 7 9 5, 6 2 7 0 1, 1 3 7 , 8 4 9 63 5 0. 1 % Ja n u a r y 2 0 0 9 60 9 , 1 4 9 33 2 , 5 5 2 1, 5 8 7 19 0 , 6 5 0 50 , 9 4 7 14 , 1 6 4 22 , 4 1 6 5, 4 7 3 0 1, 2 2 6 , 9 3 8 93 5 0. 1 % Fe b r u a r y 2 0 0 9 54 6 , 4 9 0 33 6 , 6 1 5 1, 4 4 7 17 8 , 6 7 2 45 , 5 0 7 14 , 5 4 8 19 , 2 8 7 4, 8 3 1 0 1, 1 4 7 , 3 9 8 41 1 0. 0 % Ma r c h 2 0 0 9 47 5 , 7 0 2 31 1 , 7 5 3 1, 7 9 3 17 0 , 2 5 2 48 , 7 2 0 16 , 1 4 8 19 , 6 2 9 4, 9 0 7 0 1, 0 4 8 , 9 0 5 41 7 0. 0 % Ap r i l 20 0 9 41 3 , 5 2 6 30 4 , 3 9 3 17 , 1 6 1 18 0 , 2 9 8 46 , 1 7 5 15 , 6 0 4 17 , 1 0 9 4, 5 0 2 0 99 8 , 7 6 8 71 3 0. 1 % Ma y 20 0 9 34 0 , 3 6 4 29 8 , 5 3 8 12 0 , 7 0 0 18 3 , 8 2 5 48 , 0 7 2 16 , 6 2 8 17 , 5 0 0 4, 3 8 7 0 1, 0 3 0 , 0 1 3 33 , 4 4 5 3. 4 % Ju n e 2 0 0 9 32 6 , 0 0 5 31 9 , 8 7 4 27 7 , 8 2 4 19 3 , 0 1 6 44 , 8 3 9 10 , 1 2 8 16 , 0 0 0 4, 1 6 5 0 1, 1 9 1 , 8 5 0 55 , 8 1 1 4. 9 % Ju l y 2 0 0 9 37 4 , 9 2 3 35 0 , 2 8 6 39 3 , 2 6 0 19 7 , 6 1 2 44 , 8 5 0 16 , 6 8 8 17 , 1 0 0 4, 1 5 1 6, 6 9 6 1, 4 0 5 , 5 6 5 18 , 1 9 1 1. 3 % 20 1 0 B a s e c a s e F o r e c a s t - E x p e c t e d C a s e S c e n a r i o - S L . O U T N 1 0 A 1 _ 0 1 - M a y 6 , 2 0 0 9 Pa g e 1 De c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 S a l e s F o r e c a s t - S O / S O P r o b a b i l t y (m e g a w a t t h o u r s ) Fo r e c a s t Mi c r o n Si m p l o t vs W e a t h e r Pe r c e n t Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Ir r i g a t i o n In d u s t r i a l Te c h n o l o g y Fe r t i l z e r IN l Ra f t R i v e r HO K U To t a l Ad j u s t e d Di f f e r e n c e Ja n u a r y 2 0 0 8 60 4 , 1 0 1 35 0 , 9 8 5 1, 5 7 5 20 3 , 2 4 0 56 , 9 7 9 16 , 9 4 9 23 , 8 9 8 6, 2 3 2 0 1, 2 6 3 , 9 6 0 0 0. 0 % Fe b r u a r y 2 0 0 8 55 9 , 0 9 3 33 9 , 6 3 0 1, 3 7 4 20 1 , 0 7 4 53 , 3 4 9 15 , 8 2 3 21 , 8 5 0 5, 2 9 4 0 1, 1 9 7 , 4 8 7 0 0. 0 % Ma r c h 2 0 0 8 47 4 , 6 5 6 31 9 , 7 2 8 1, 6 0 5 18 3 , 2 5 3 56 , 4 1 2 16 , 4 7 4 19 , 4 1 3 5, 1 6 0 0 1, 0 7 6 , 6 9 9 0 0. 0 % Ap r i l 20 0 8 40 6 , 0 4 7 30 6 , 7 2 7 17 , 7 4 3 18 3 , 0 9 3 54 , 1 2 6 15 , 9 7 9 16 , 1 2 7 4, 5 8 6 0 1, 0 0 4 , 4 2 8 0 0. 0 % Ma y 2 0 0 8 34 4 , 7 0 6 29 3 , 9 4 2 13 2 , 6 4 6 18 5 , 9 0 7 56 , 4 8 1 13 , 8 4 2 17 , 3 5 2 4, 4 1 1 0 1, 0 4 9 , 2 8 7 0 0. 0 % Ju n e 2 0 0 8 33 1 , 0 7 6 31 3 , 4 0 3 29 7 , 3 1 5 19 1 , 5 8 1 55 , 3 0 1 10 , 9 5 1 15 , 4 3 5 4, 2 0 4 0 1, 2 1 9 , 2 6 5 0 0. 0 % Ju l y 2 0 0 8 37 3 , 3 7 8 33 7 , 3 2 1 42 9 , 1 6 0 19 4 , 4 0 9 58 , 1 0 9 14 , 8 0 5 16 , 3 1 8 4, 3 6 4 0 1, 4 2 7 , 8 6 3 0 0. 0 % Au g u s t 2 0 0 8 42 9 , 9 5 9 35 3 , 0 8 1 42 8 , 3 7 5 20 0 , 3 7 5 57 , 8 4 4 16 , 0 1 0 16 , 5 5 9 4, 2 4 6 0 1, 5 0 6 , 4 4 6 -6 0. 0 % Se p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 39 7 , 1 6 5 34 8 , 7 5 6 34 3 , 0 8 2 19 9 , 6 3 0 54 , 4 9 4 15 , 6 4 9 13 , 2 7 3 3, 9 4 6 0 1, 3 7 5 , 9 9 6 -3 3 7 0. 0 % Oc t o b e r 2 0 0 8 33 1 , 3 7 2 32 4 , 6 5 9 16 8 , 5 4 3 18 1 , 7 7 5 55 , 2 3 8 15 , 7 6 5 16 , 3 7 8 4, 2 9 3 0 1, 0 9 8 , 0 2 2 -1 4 1 0. 0 % No v e m b e r 2 0 0 8 39 2 , 3 9 1 31 7 , 3 9 3 17 , 9 7 1 19 5 , 4 9 8 51 , 5 9 3 15 , 1 3 3 18 , 0 0 3 4, 5 1 5 0 1, 0 1 2 , 4 9 6 -7 4 7 -0 . 1 % De c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 52 9 , 5 0 1 35 3 , 0 0 0 2, 1 9 2 19 3 , 1 3 3 55 , 3 2 6 17 , 0 0 8 22 , 9 0 0 5, 9 1 5 0 1, 1 7 8 , 9 7 5 41 , 7 6 1 3. 7 % Ja n u a r y 2 0 0 9 60 0 , 0 1 1 35 7 , 2 8 6 1, 1 2 0 20 2 , 5 5 0 54 , 9 0 2 16 , 9 4 3 23 , 2 4 7 6, 3 9 8 0 1, 2 6 2 , 4 5 7 36 , 4 5 5 3. 0 % Fe b r u a r y 2 0 0 9 55 5 , 5 8 3 34 4 , 7 7 5 1, 0 2 3 20 5 , 6 1 6 50 , 1 0 8 15 , 3 6 6 20 , 1 9 7 5, 2 9 3 0 1, 1 9 7 , 9 6 1 50 , 9 7 5 4. 4 % Ma r c h 2 0 0 9 47 0 , 7 9 3 32 4 , 0 2 8 1, 4 8 9 17 8 , 7 8 0 55 , 2 8 1 17 , 0 5 2 19 , 8 9 3 5, 2 0 5 0 1, 0 7 2 , 5 2 2 24 , 0 3 5 2. 3 % Ap r i l 20 0 9 40 2 , 1 0 1 30 8 , 9 9 1 13 , 0 7 1 19 3 , 9 0 3 53 , 5 1 4 16 , 5 2 4 17 , 9 8 9 4, 6 9 9 81 0 0 1, 0 1 8 , 8 9 2 20 , 8 3 8 2. 1 % Ma y 2 0 0 9 34 0 , 3 6 4 29 8 , 5 3 8 12 0 , 7 0 0 18 3 , 8 2 5 55 , 7 8 6 16 , 9 6 3 16 , 4 5 2 4, 5 0 4 16 7 4 0 1, 0 5 3 , 8 7 1 57 , 3 0 4 5. 8 % Ju n e 2 0 0 9 32 6 , 0 0 5 31 9 , 8 7 4 27 7 , 8 2 4 19 3 , 0 1 6 54 , 5 7 7 10 , 3 3 0 15 , 1 5 0 4, 2 0 8 27 8 6 4 1, 2 2 8 , 8 4 8 92 , 8 0 9 8. 2 % Ju l y 2 0 0 9 37 4 , 9 2 3 35 0 , 2 8 6 39 3 , 2 6 0 19 7 , 6 1 2 57 , 8 6 2 17 , 0 2 4 16 , 1 6 9 4, 2 0 3 28 7 9 3 1, 4 4 0 , 1 3 1 52 , 7 5 8 3. 8 % 20 0 9 B a s e c a s e F o r e c a s t - E x p e c t e d C a s e S c e n a r i o - S L . O U T N 0 9 A 1 _ 0 3 - D e c e m b e r 1 7 , 2 0 0 8 Au g u s t 2 0 0 8 S a l e s F o r e c a s t - S O / S O P r o b a b i l t y (m e g a w a t t h o u r s ) Fo r e c a s t Mi c r o n Si m p l o t vs W e a t h e r Pe r c e n t Re s i d e n t i a l Co m m e r c i a l Ir r i g a t i o n In d u s t r i a l Te c h n o l o g y Fe r t i l z e r IN l Ra f t R i v e r HO K U To t a l Ad j u s t e d Di f f e r e n c e Ja n u a r y 2 0 0 8 60 4 , 1 0 1 35 0 , 9 8 5 1, 5 7 5 20 3 , 2 4 0 56 , 9 7 9 16 , 9 4 9 23 , 8 9 8 6, 2 3 2 0 1, 2 6 3 , 9 6 0 0 0. 0 % Fe b r u a r y 2 0 0 8 55 9 , 3 1 7 33 9 , 7 1 6 1, 3 7 4 20 1 , 0 7 4 53 , 3 4 9 15 , 8 2 3 21 , 8 5 0 5, 3 0 0 0 1, 1 9 7 , 8 0 3 31 6 0. 0 % Ma r c h 2 0 0 8 47 4 , 8 3 6 31 9 , 7 9 3 1, 6 0 5 18 3 , 2 5 3 56 , 4 1 2 16 , 4 7 4 19 , 4 1 3 5, 1 6 0 0 1, 0 7 6 , 9 4 5 24 6 0. 0 % Ap r i l 20 0 8 40 6 , 3 6 8 30 6 , 8 3 7 17 , 7 0 9 18 3 , 0 9 3 54 , 1 2 6 15 , 9 7 9 16 , 1 2 7 4, 5 8 1 0 1, 0 0 4 , 8 1 9 39 1 0. 0 % Ma y 2 0 0 8 34 4 , 8 9 9 29 3 , 9 9 9 13 2 , 3 2 8 18 5 , 9 0 7 56 , 4 8 1 13 , 8 4 2 17 , 3 5 2 4, 4 1 1 0 1, 0 4 9 , 2 1 9 -6 8 0. 0 % Ju n e 2 0 0 8 33 1 , 0 9 0 31 3 , 4 0 3 29 7 , 2 8 1 19 1 , 5 8 1 55 , 3 0 1 10 , 9 5 1 15 , 4 3 5 4, 2 0 4 0 1, 2 1 9 , 2 4 6 -1 9 0. 0 % Ju l y 2 0 0 8 37 3 , 3 7 8 33 7 , 3 2 1 42 9 , 1 6 0 19 4 , 0 5 5 58 , 1 0 9 14 , 8 0 5 16 , 3 1 8 4, 3 6 4 0 1, 4 2 7 , 5 1 0 -3 5 3 0. 0 % Au g u s t 2 0 0 8 43 7 , 3 2 4 36 0 , 7 9 1 39 6 , 5 4 0 20 2 , 9 4 0 56 , 6 8 2 16 , 7 0 7 14 , 8 0 0 4, 3 5 9 0 1, 4 9 0 , 1 4 3 -1 6 , 3 0 9 -1 . 1 % Se p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 39 7 , 8 4 8 35 5 , 9 4 1 32 4 , 8 3 9 20 4 , 7 4 6 53 , 7 6 9 15 , 9 3 1 15 , 0 0 0 3, 9 4 7 0 1, 3 7 2 , 0 2 0 -4 , 3 1 2 -0 . 3 % Oc t o b e r 2 0 0 8 33 6 , 5 9 3 32 8 , 1 8 0 15 1 , 1 8 3 19 2 , 6 1 0 54 , 9 8 6 16 , 5 3 9 17 , 0 0 0 4, 6 0 4 0 1, 1 0 1 , 6 9 5 3, 5 3 2 0. 3 % No v e m b e r 2 0 0 8 39 4 , 6 4 6 32 7 , 5 6 8 25 , 0 5 6 20 4 , 2 6 4 53 , 1 8 7 16 , 3 0 3 19 , 7 0 0 4, 9 5 5 0 1, 0 4 5 , 6 7 8 32 , 4 3 6 3. 2 % De c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 53 1 , 0 5 6 35 3 , 8 5 5 2, 1 9 2 19 3 , 1 3 3 55 , 3 2 6 17 , 0 0 8 22 , 9 0 0 5, 9 1 5 0 1, 1 8 1 , 3 8 4 44 , 1 7 0 3. 9 % Ja n u a r y 2 0 0 9 60 2 , 2 7 7 35 8 , 2 8 2 1, 1 2 0 20 2 , 5 5 0 54 , 9 0 2 16 , 9 4 3 23 , 2 4 7 6, 3 9 8 0 1, 2 6 5 , 7 1 9 39 , 7 1 7 3. 2 % Fe b r u a r y 2 0 0 9 55 7 , 9 5 2 34 5 , 9 6 6 1, 0 2 3 20 5 , 6 1 6 50 , 1 0 8 15 , 3 6 6 20 , 1 9 7 5, 2 9 3 0 1, 2 0 1 , 5 2 1 54 , 5 3 5 4. 8 % Ma r c h 2 0 0 9 47 3 , 2 1 0 32 5 , 1 9 3 1, 4 8 9 17 8 , 7 8 0 55 , 2 8 1 17 , 0 5 2 19 , 8 9 3 5, 2 0 5 0 1, 0 7 6 , 1 0 4 27 , 6 1 7 2. 6 % Ap r i l 20 0 9 40 4 , 9 0 9 31 0 , 2 9 2 13 , 0 7 1 19 3 , 9 0 3 53 , 5 1 4 16 , 5 2 4 17 , 9 8 9 4, 6 9 9 8, 1 0 0 1, 0 2 3 , 0 0 2 24 , 9 4 8 2. 5 % Ma y 2 0 0 9 34 3 , 4 1 7 30 1 , 4 0 3 12 0 , 7 0 0 18 3 , 8 2 5 55 , 7 8 6 16 , 9 6 3 16 , 4 5 2 4, 5 0 4 16 , 7 4 0 1, 0 5 9 , 7 9 0 63 , 2 2 2 6. 3 % Ju n e 2 0 0 9 32 9 , 2 8 6 32 2 , 6 7 2 27 7 , 8 2 4 19 3 , 0 1 6 54 , 5 7 7 10 , 3 3 0 15 , 1 5 0 4, 2 0 8 27 , 8 6 4 1, 2 3 4 , 9 2 8 98 , 8 8 9 8. 7 % Ju l y 2 0 0 9 37 9 , 0 7 5 35 3 , 4 7 4 39 3 , 2 6 0 19 7 , 6 1 2 57 , 8 6 2 17 , 0 2 4 16 , 1 6 9 4, 2 0 3 28 , 7 9 3 1, 4 4 7 , 4 7 2 60 , 0 9 8 4. 3 % 20 0 9 B a s e c a s e F o r e c a s t - E x p e c t e d C a s e S c e n a r i o - S L . O U T N 0 9 A 1 _ 0 1 - A u g u s t 2 1 , 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 2