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HomeMy WebLinkAbout200501051st Response of Idaho Power to Staff.pdfECEl\lED ill t-.-JMONICA B. MOEN ISB #5734 Idaho Power Company O. Box 70 Boise, Idaho 83707 Phone: (208) 388-2692 FAX: (208) 388-6936 F' i lE D ~' - 11 ~V~ 3~49tUU,; Jf~~~ , "'.. ,"(('" 01 IL\ T 1ESJ 2o'ti\;lSS10N Attorney for Idaho Power Company 1221 West Idaho Street Boise , Idaho 83702 BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION OF IDAHO POWER COMPANY FOR AUTHORITY TO IMPLEMENT A RESIDENTIAL AIR CONDITIONER CYCLING PROGRAM. CASE NO. IPC-04- COMES NOW, Idaho Power Company ("Idaho Power" or "the Company ), and in response to the First Production Request of the Commission Staff dated December 20 2004, herewith submits the following information: REQUEST NO.1: Please provide the following: Please provide a copy Summit Blue Consulting, Inc.s evaluation of the potential load reduction impacts associated with the operation of the AC Cycling Pilot Program. Please provide copies of all data assumptions, analyses, and instructions that Idaho Power provided to Summit Blue for the purpose of this evaluation. IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO FIRST PRODUCTION REQUEST OF COMMISSION STAFF Page Please provide a copy of the signed contract between Idaho Power and Summit Blue. Please describe the process Idaho Power used to select Summit Blue for this evaluation. RESPONSE TO REQUEST NO. The Load Reduction Analysis of the 2004 Air Conditioning Cycling Pilot Program Final Report prepared for Idaho Power Company by Summit Blue Consulting, Inc. is included as Attachment 1. The Final Report identifies a potential load reduction of 1.16 kW for each participant on days at or above 95 degrees Fahrenheit. In its Application to expand the AC Cycling Pilot Program , Idaho Power Company refers to a potential load reduction of 1.11 kW as initially provided by Summit Blue. During the preparation of the Final Report, Summit Blue discovered a small number of errant observations in its data collection , which prompted an addition model run. The final model run yielded an estimate of 1.16 kW of load reduction per program participant on days beyond the 95-degree threshold. Summit Blue points out that there is no statistical difference between the 1.11 kW and the 1.16 kW results , as the difference is well within the confidence interval of the estimate." The small difference in the final Summit Blue model results does not significantly impact the cost-effectiveness of the program nor does it justify any adjustment to the program design as submitted in the Company s Application. A CD containing the data files used by Summit Blue in its Final Report is included with this response. The CD contains the following files and folders: IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO FIRST PRODUCTION REQUEST OF COMMISSION STAFF Page 2 - This Excel file contains serial numbers of thermostats, switches and the various meters used at each metered service point. 2. For SummiLBlue 2004.- This folder contains the following three folders: i. .D.e.nt.Eli1eem - This folder contains 34 individual files. Each file is a record of the measured kW demand for a single AC compressor unit in 15-minute increments. The 34 demand meters were installed at randomly selected switch and thermostat locations. ii. .Dent..C.I.logg - This folder contains records for 77 data loggers that were installed at randomly selected switch and thermostat locations. The loggers monitored when the AC compressor was cycled on and off. III.- This folder contains 221 individual files. Each file contains hourly temperature readings and cycling schedules downloaded from individual thermostats. - This file contains hourly demand readings recorded by approximately 175 whole house meters at thermostat locations. - This file contains the list of days and hours that the AC units were cycled in 2004. In its contract with Idaho Power, Summit Blue agreed to provide the following analyses: 1. An assessment of the potential load reduction for both switches and thermostats at 330/0, 500/0, and 670/0 cycling schedules at various external IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO FIRST PRODUCTION REQUEST OF COMMISSION STAFF Page 3 temperatures. 2. The effects of air conditioner cycling on energy consumption. 3. The effects of air conditioner cycling on a home s internal temperature. The signed contract between Idaho Power Company and Summit Blue is included as Attachment 2. In October 2003 , Idaho Power released a request for proposal to four potential vendors with experience in analyzing load control data. Respondents were evaluated based upon company attributes , proposed analysis and cost estimates. Summit Blue received the highest score in each evaluation category. Idaho Power entered into an agreement with Summit Blue in 2003 for the evaluation of the first year of the AC Cycling Pilot Program with the option to extend the contract in 2004. The Company exercised its option to extend the contract with Summit Blue in 2004 by requesting the preparation of the Final Report (Attachment 1). The response to this request was prepared by Tim E. Tatum , Pricing Analyst Idaho Power Company, in consultation with Monica B. Moen , Attorney for Idaho Power Company. REQUEST NO.2: Please provide the following: Idaho Power s Application states "The Company reserves the right to select and reject Program participants at its sole discretion based upon criteria the Company considers necessary to ensure the effective operation of the Program. Selection criteria may include, but will not be limited to, energy usage , residential location , size of the home or other factors." Please describe tentative selection thresholds for the criteria specifically listed. IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO FIRST PRODUCTION REQUEST OF COMMISSION STAFF Page 4 Please list and describe selection thresholds of "other factors" that the Company is considering using. RESPONSE TO REQUEST NO. The following information describes the selection criteria being considered by the Company. Initial marketing efforts will be directed toward those customers with a minimum difference in monthly energy usage of at least 400 kilowatt-hours comparing April to July. The Company does not keep records identifying those customers with central air conditioning. This method will be used to identify potential program participants based upon their energy usage patterns. . Idaho Power will work with the future installation contractor(s) to identify a cost-effective installation schedule within Ada and Canyon counties. The Company may also develop an installation strategy that optimizes the system benefit of the program from a load reduction perspective. Size ofJ1ome:Currently no minimum threshold has been determined regarding the size of a participant's home. However, assuming that the size of the participant's home is correlated to the size of the air conditioning unit, a minimum square footage threshold may be established in the future in order to manage the cost-effective operation of the program. .other..factors As detailed in the Company s proposed tariff , " other factors" will include that a location must have central air conditioning and the unit must be easily accessible and in good working condition. No other criteria have been identified at this time. The Company will work with the future installation contractor(s) to IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO FIRST PRODUCTION REQUEST OF COMMISSION STAFF Page 5 determine if additional selection criteria are necessary to ensure the satisfactory performance of the program. The response to this request was prepared by Tim E. Tatum , Pricing Analyst Idaho Power Company, in consultation with Monica B. Moen, Attorney for Idaho Power Company. REQUEST NO.3: Please provide detailed cost forecasts for the program for each of the next five years. These forecasts should list individual cost components in greater detail than is provided in either the Application or in the Company s October 20 2004, presentation to its Energy Efficiency Advisory Group. RESPONSE TO REQUEST NO.3: A detailed cost forecast for the next five years is included as Attachment 3. The response to this request was prepared by Tim E. Tatum , Pricing Analyst Idaho Power Company, in consultation with Monica B. Moen, Attorney for Idaho Power Company. DATED at Boise , Idaho, this 4th day of January, 2005. MONICA B. MOEN Attorney for Idaho Power Company IDAHO POWER COMPANY'S RESPONSE TO FIRST PRODUCTION REQUEST OF COMMISSION STAFF Page 6 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I HEREBY CERTIFY that on this 4th day of January, 2005, I served a true and correct copy of the above and foregoing IDAHO POWER COMPANY' RESPONSE TO FIRST PRODUCTION REQUEST OF COMMISSION STAFF to the following parties: Donald L. Howell, II Deputy Attorney General Idaho Public Utilities Commission 472 W. Washington Street O. Box 83720 Boise, Idaho 83720-0074 Hand Delivered S. Mail Overnight Mail FAX rho MONICA B. MOEN CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE ATTACHMENT TO RESPONSE TO STAFF PRODUCTION REQUEST NO. , '.' , ",-, ' ", '" LOAD REDUCTION ANALYSIS OF THE 2004 Air Conditioning Cycling Pilot Program Final Report Prepared for Idaho Power Company December 27 , 2004 Summit Blue Consulting Boulder, Colorado Phone 720-564-1130 CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................... E- Introduction Backg ro u nd . .... ..... ... .. .. .. .... ... ... ... .... .. ... .... .. ...... ..... ..... .. ... . .. ... . ..... .. ... ... .. .. ..... .. .... 1- Objectives of the Assignment.......................................................................... 1- Load Reduction Analysis Load Impacts...................................................................................................... Net kWh Impacts ............................................................................................... Effect on Internal T ermperatu re ............................................................... Conclusions and Recommendations ... ............................................. ....... Summit Blue Consulting 2004 Idaho Power Evaluation Draft Final Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On March 17, 2003, the Idaho Public Utility Commission approved Idaho Power Company (IPCo s) request to conduct the Program to test potential summer peak load reduction over two summer seasons, 2003 and 2004. This report presents the results of the load reduction analysis of IPCO's Air Conditioning Cycling Pilot Program (the "Program ) for the summer of 2004. Similar to Summit Blue Consulting s (SBC's) analysis of the 2003 season, this analysis used statistical modeling approaches that related metered electricity usage to weather conditions and the cycling event. Several models were developed which investigated: What effect did cycling have on reducing and/or shifting load? Does AlC cycling reduce overall kWh, or simply shift usage to non-cycling hours? And thus , what is the net effect on energy? Does AlC cycling affect the internal temperature of participant's houses? The models used in this load reduction analysis of the Pilot Program have shown the following: The Program does produce substantive and measurable effect on AlC load during cycling periods: When the outside temperature exceeded 950 67% cycling produced a savings of 32 kW for switches and 1.26 kW for thermostat participants. 50% cycling produced 1.16 kW for switches and 0.86 kW savings for thermostat participants. When the outside temperature was between 900 and 950, 67% cycling produced a savings of 0.89 kW for switches and 0.92 kW for thermostat participants. 50% cycling produced savings of 0.81 kW for switches and 0.77 kW savings for thermostat participants This reduction in AlC load during cycling results in participants shifting AlC usage to non-cycling periods. Overall, this results in a slight net decrease in kWh usage of 0. kWh during a typical cycling day. Cycling does increase the internal temperature of the homes, particularly in the last hour of a cycling period. However, this effect is relatively small, averaging less than 20 Based on the results of this analysis, the analysis of the 2003 program, and SBC's previous experience with similar AlC cycling programs throughout the country, we have developed the following list of recommendations: Using AlC run-time loggers are a viable and cost-effective alternative to whole premise and end-use demand meters. However, some end-use meters are necessary to calibrate percentage on data from the loggers to kW demand. 2004 IPCO AlC Pilot Draft Final ReportSummit Blue Consulting Efforts should be made to ensure the performance of the programmable thermostats. This analysis found thermostat customers who were not controlled when they should have been, controlled when they should not have been, early termination of the cycling event (3 hours instead of 4 hours), and delayed starts during control periods. None of this behavior was found in the participants with switches. When these problematic cases where eliminated from the analysis, the thermostat participants had similar kW impacts as participants with switches. A 67% cycling scheme results in a significant decrease in kW savings, while the aggregate effect on the temperature of the house is only 0.270 higher relative to 50% cycling. Therefore, IPCo should be comfortable with using this higher cycling rate when the need arises. Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Pilot Draft Final Report INTRODUCTION This report presents the results of the load reduction analysis of Idaho Power Company s (IPCo s) Air Conditioning Cycling Pilot Program (the Program ) for the summer of 2004. 1 Background on 2 Objectives of the Assignment In this chapter, Section 1.1 contains a brief overview of the Program; Section 1.2 presents the objectives of this evaluation. Background On March 17 2003 , the Idaho Public Utility Commission approved IPCo s request to conduct the Program to test potential summer peak load reduction over two summer seasons: 2003 and 2004. Summit Blue Consulting (SBC) analyzed the 2003 program in 2003. This report presents the impact assessment of the 2004 cooling season. During the summer of 2004, there were a total of over 100 hours of cycling from June to August 1 Exhibit 1-1 presents the date and time of these cycling events. In 9 of these events, the participants were cycled for 67% during a given half-hour (i.e., 20 minutes off during each half- hour of the control period). On the remaining 18 control days, the units were cycled for 50% during a given half-hour (i.e., 15 minutes in each half-hour period). 1 There were several short term (..(2 hours) cycling events during June 1st and 2nd, which were used to set and test the system. These events were not included in this analysis. Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Pilot Draft Final Report Exhibit 1-1: Summer 2004 Cycling Events Date Cycling Start Duration Cycling Time (MDT)(hours) June 3 15:00 50% June 7 15:00 50% June 8 15:00 50% June 9 14:00 50% June 22 15:00 50% June 23 15:00 50% June 24 15:00 67% June 28 15:00 50% June 30 14:00 50% July 2 14:00 50% July 6 15:00 50% July 8 15:00 50% July 12 15:00 67% July 14 15:00 67% July 22 15:00 67% July 27 15:00 50% July 28 15:00 67% August 2 15:00 50% August 4 15:00 67% August 6 15:00 50% August 10 15:00 67%, August 12,15:00 50% August 17 15:00 50% August 18 15:00 67% August 19 15:00 50% August 23 15:00 50% August 25 15:00 67% Total 108 Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Pilot Draft Final Report 2 Objectives of the Assignment The focus of this evaluation was to conduct a load reduction analysis ("LRA") of the Program during the summer of 2004. The purpose of the analysis was to address the following issues: What effect did cycling have on reducing and/or shifting load? Does AlC cycling reduce overall kWh, or simply shift usage to non-cycling hours? What is the net effect on energy? Does household temperature change in response to cycling? To address these issues, the LRA used the following data: Interval whole-house metering data (from load research meters) for 174 participating household End-use (Air Conditioner) demand meter data for 34 participants Data from Air Conditioner run-time loggers for 76 customers. Hourly temperature and humidity data spanning the entire summer. Records of cycling dates, intervals, and duration (Exhibit 1-1). Hourly internal home temperature readings downloaded from participants' thermostats. Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Pilot Draft Final Report LOAD REDUCTION ANALYSIS Load Impacts 1 Load Impacts 2 Net kWh Effects 3 Effect on Internal Temperature 4 Conclusions and Recommendations This chapter presents the results of the load reduction analysis of the AlC cycling pilot program. The simplest approach to determining impacts of a cycling day to the average load curve on a similar non-cycling day and AlC cycling program is to compare the average load curve on the cycling day to the average load curve on a similar non-cycling day. One problem with this method is that it may be difficult to obtain a non-cycling day that matches the conditions of the cycling day. In addition, this straightforward sampling approach using a sample of interval meters is unlikely to produce high levels of accuracy. Instead, a slightly more sophisticated approach is needed to produce levels of precision on which capacity and energy payments can be justified. This is where the increase in precision of the fixed-effect model used in this analysis is superior to other approaches. As an illustration, suppose a recent evaluation of a direct load control program for air conditioners in the Western United States produced a mean impact estimate of 0.71kW per participant. There were a total of 600 participants in the program and metered data were obtained on a sample of 50 participating customers. The standard deviation for this sample was 1.01 kW. The reason the standard deviation is so large is that approximately 35 percent of the participants had zero or minimal impacts from the program on control days, i.e., their AC unit was shut off on that day, either because they were on vacation or because they were "free-riders" and typically turned off their AC units during the day. The number of participants with near zero impacts results in a bimodal distribution with a large variance and standard deviation for the sample. A 90 percent confidence interval with a standard deviation of 1.01 yields a confidence interval of +/- . 24 kW or +/- 34 percent using the representative day approach calibrated to same day loads and temperatures. This level of precision is common for this method and is generally accepted in regulatory proceedings , but in some cases additional accuracy can be important. For example, if the load impacts were part of a DR program with a regional reliability organization, it may not be quite accurate enough for a settlement agent or to create a viable hedge product that can be used as a tradable product in bilateral or even internal corporate transactions for capacity and reserves. SBC's preferred approach is to directly model kW load, rather than relying upon simple or calibrated representative day comparisons, or on approaches that model duty cycles as a stand- alone estimation method. In this approach, the measured hourly kW load is the dependent Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Draft Final Report variable in a regression equation that includes weather terms, household demographics appliance holding, and the cycling event. In essence, a structural model of the AlC load is developed. The impact of the cycling is simply the coefficient on the cycling variable. This approach is intuitively appealing, and has produced very precise estimates of program effects. This analysis further refines this approach by using pooled time-series and cross-sectional data (panel data). That is, all hourly observations over the summer for all households are combined into the one model. In order to capture differences across households, the model includes a constant term that is specific to each household (termed a fixed-effects model). This constant term captures the effect on hourly AlC load of all the variables that do not change over time. Thus, this model indirectly controls for such things as the orientation of the house, the size of the house, and the characteristics of the AlC unit itself. The first question addressed by this analysis is what effect cycling has on the load shape of participating households. Exhibit 2-1 graphs the average load shape across all participants for the 50% and 67% cycling days in July to the average non-cycling days. Clearly, the program does affect the average load shape, with a drop in consumption during the cycling period. This Exhibit also suggests that there may be an increase in consumption after the cycling period - the snapback" effect. This effect will be investigated in the next section. Exhibit 2-1: Average cycling load shape vs. non-cycling load shape Average Control and Non-Control Days in July ... ::s ,g 2. CL) C'I f! 1. CL) -+- Average non-control days -m- Average 50% control days --.- Average 67% control days 13 15 17 19 21 Hour of the Day In order to quantify the impacts of the Program, a fixed-effect panel data model was used that combined weather data with the interval meter data. Forthis analysis, data are available both across households (i.e., cross-sectional) and over time (i., time-series). The fixed effects model Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Draft Final Report can be viewed as a type of differencing model in which all characteristics of the home, which (1) are independent of time and (2) determine the level of hourly electricity use , are captured within the house-specific constant terms. In other words, differences in housing characteristics that cause variation in the level of energy consumption, such as building size and structure, are captured by constant terms representing each unique house. Algebraically, the fixed-effect panel data model is described as follows: Yit ai fJxit cit Where: Yit = C energy consumption for home during hour aj constant term for home j3 vector of coefficients Xit vector of variables that represent factors causing changes in AC consumption for home during hour (i., weather and control strategies) Cit error term for home during hour This hourly demand model was estimated over all metered participants during the months of June through August. In order to combine the data from the load research meters , the end-use demand meters, and the AlC run-time loggers, SBC used the data from customers who received all three meters to calibrate the run-time data from the loggers into kW demand. Thus, it was possible to include all the different meter types into a single regression equation. In estimating the regression equation, it was found that the initial results for thermostat customers were not accurately reflecting the program s impact. Upon investigating the log files from the thermostats, SBC found thermostat customers who were not controlled when they should have been, controlled when they should not have been, early termination of the cycling event (3 hours instead of 4 hours), and delayed starts during control periods. None of this behavior was found in the participants with switches. There was no consistent pattern in these errors across time or over customers. Therefore, in order to ensure that the thermostat data was accurate, those observations where the AlC units were clearly not controlled during the control event (i., their usage was 3.0 kW or more) were eliminated from the analysis. Exhibit 2-2 presents the estimated panel model used to determine the effect on hourly kW usage associated with AlC cycling. The weather variables include the current hour temperature and humidity as well as non-linear temperature terms (to capture the non-linearity of AlC usage as the temperature increases), and lagged weather variables to capture building thermodynamic effects. The model also uses indicators for afternoon (lpm to 8 pm) to capture general daily usage patterns. Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Draft Final Report Exhibit 2-2: Load Impacts Model- dependent variable is hourly kW usage, June 3rd throu h Au st 2004 Independent Variable Coefficient t-value (t- value 67% cycling, 90-95 degrees, and customer has a switch 23. 67% cycling, 95+ and customer has a switch 1.32 26. 67% cycling, 90-95 degrees, and customer has a 45. thermostat 67% cycling, 95+ and customer has a thermostat 45. 50% cycling, 90-95 degrees, and customer has a switch 18. 50% cycling, 95+ and customer has a switch 1.16 25. 50% cycling, 90-95 degrees, and customer has a 31.8 thermostat 50% cycling, 95+ and customer has a thermostat 30. Current hour s temperature 117 44. Currant hour s temperature squared 001 65. Previous hour s temperature 017 12. Current hour s humidity 002 3.1 Previous hour s humidity 005 10. Indicator for month of June 021 3.2 Indicator for month of July 061 12. Indicator for 12:00 006 Indicator for 13:00 048 Indicator for 14:00 102 Indicator for 15:00 155 12. Indicator for 16:00 176 13. Indicator for 17:00 316 24. Indicator for 18:00 0.447 32. Indicator for 18 :00 542 38. Indicator for 20:00 733 43. Sample Size 211 735 (235 sites) R-squared Ignoring individual constants 29. With individual constants 55. The coefficients on the control hour variables indicate the kW savings associated with the program at different cycling amounts and outdoor temperatures. The t-values on all these variables show that the results are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level. Exhibit 2- 3 shows the savings estimate for the different cycling and outside temperatures. Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Draft Final Report Exhibit 2-3: Program Impacts (average kW per hour) Cycling and Temperature Switch Thermostat 67% cycling at 90- 67% cycling at 95+1.32 1.26 50% cycling at 90- 50% cycling at 95+1.16 This statistical model shows that the Program does indeed reduce the AlC load during a cycling period. The next question to address is does this AlC cycling reduce overall kWh, or simply shift energy usage to non-cycling hours? In other words, does participant's total energy usage for the day increase (due to snapback) or decrease during days that have AlC cycling? This question is addressed in the next section 2 Net kWh Effects The previous statistical model confirmed that the Program does result in a reduction of the AlC load during a cycling period. The next question then becomes does this decrease in AlC demand result in an overall decrease in the customers energy (kWh) usage over that day. To address this issue, the statistical model presented in the previous section was expanded to look at hourly effects during the cycling period as well as hours after the cycling period for all cycling strategies at outside temperatures greater than 90 degrees. The estimated coefficients for this model are presented in Exhibit 2- 2 The estimated equation includes the variables to control for weather and time of day that were used in Exhibit 2. For brevity, these coefficients are not included in Exhibit 2- Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Draft Final Report Exhibit 2-4: Net kWh Impacts Model- dependent variable is hourly kW usage, June th hA st 2003roe ug~. u~u Independent Variable Coefficient t-value First hour of a cycling event 23. Second hour of a cycling event 32.4 Third hour of a cycling event 33. Fourth hour of a cycling event 32. First hour after a cycling event 0.26 13. Second hour after a cycling event 32. Third hour after a cycling event 0.48 30. Fourth hour after a cycling event 23. Fifth hour after a cycling event 11.5 Sample Size 281 295 (235 households) R-squared Ignoring individual constants 26% With individual constants 55% This estimated model shows several interesting results. First, the change in AlC load during a cycling period is very consistent for the third, fourth and fifth hours across the control period at about 0.70 kW. After the cycling event there is a strong increase in electricity usage as the aggregate AlC usage increases to recover the effects of cycling (this is termed "snapback" The net result of cycling on kWh is found by summing the cycling coefficients and the post- cycling coefficients. The result is that energy use has decreased, on average, by 0.89 kWh due to cycling. Thus, cycling appears to shift some usage from cycling hours to non-cycling hours. The net effect on kWh clearly depends upon the cycling percentage and the outside temperature during and after the control event. The next researchable issue for this LRA is to determine if there are any observable impacts on the internal temperature of participant's houses associated with a control event. This issue is addressed in the next section. 3 Effect on Internal Temperature The previous analyses have shown that the Program produces a significant decrease in AlC load during cycling periods. One question that arises is does this reduced AlC load result in a Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Draft Final Report significant increase in the internal temperature of the home? The hourly internal home temperature readings collected by the programmable thermostats used in the Program where used to address this issue. The results are discussed below. The effect of cycling depends upon the cycling strategy, the length of cycling, the outside temperature, and the thermostat setpoint, among other things. Therefore, in order to understand the change in internal temperature, a regression model must be used to control for non-program influences. Exhibit 2-5 presents the results of a regression analysis undertaken to quantify the effect of the cycling on indoor air temperature. In this model , the average indoor air temperature (for households with thermostats) for each hour was the dependent variable. The independent variables consisted of outside temperature and humidity variables. The effect of the program on indoor temperature was captured by the cycling strategy (50% or 67%) for each hour during the control period. To capture the delayed effect on indoor temperature from cycling, variables were included which denoted hours that were one, two, and three hours after the cycling period. For simplicity, the Exhibit does not include the coefficients on the outside weather conditions or time of day variables. Exhibit 2-5: Indoor Temperature Model- dependent variable is hourly indoor temperature, June through Au ust 2003. Cycle 67% first hour 1.05 Cycle 67% second hour Cycle 67% third hour 1.25 Cycle 67 % fourth hour 1.56 8.4 Cycle 50% first hour 1.13 Cycle 50% second hour 1.17 Cycle 50% third hour 1.16 Cycle 50% fourth hour 1.29 Sample Size R-squared Ignoring individual constants With individual constants 439 554 (143 sites) 28% 35% Exhibit 2-5 shows that during the cycling period, the average indoor temperature for all thermostat participants increases throughout the period, reaching a maximum at the last hour of control. This maximum is 1.60 with 67% cycling and 1.30 with 50% cycling. The clear conclusion is that the effect of cycling on the internal temperature, even during 67% cycling days, is small and is unlikely to be noticed by most customers. Summit Blue Consulting 2004 IPCO AlC Draft Final Report 4 Conclusions and Recommendations In conclusion, this load reduction analysis of IPCo s Air Conditioning Cycling Pilot Program for the summer of 2004 has shown the following: The Program does produce substantive and measurable effect on AlC load during cycling periods: When the outside temperature exceeded 950 67% cycling produced a savings of 32 kW for switches and 1.26 kW for thermostat participants. 50% cycling produced 1.16 kW for switches and 0.86 kW savings for thermostat participants. When the outside temperature was between 900 and 950, 67% cycling produced a savings of 0.89 kW for switches and 0.92 kW for thermostat participants. 50% cycling produced savings of 0.81 kW for switches and 0.77 kW savings for thermostat participants This reduction in AlC load during cycling results in participants shifting AlC usage to non-cycling periods. Overall , this results in a slight net decrease in kWh usage of 0. kWh during a typical cycling day. Cycling does increase the internal temperature of the homes, particularly in the last hour of a cycling period. However, this effect is relatively small, averaging less than 20 Based on the results of this analysis, SBC's analysis of the 2003 program, and SBC's previous experience with similar AlC cycling programs throughout the country, we have developed the following list of recommendations: Using AlC run-time loggers are a viable cost-effective alternative to whole premise and end use demand meters. However, some end-use meters are necessary to calibrate percentage on data from the loggers to kW demand. Data from the thermostats again presented challenges, as was the case in the evaluation of the 2003 program. This analysis found thermostat customers who were not controlled when they should have been, controlled when they should not have been, early termination of the cycling event (3 hours instead of 4 hours), and delayed starts during control periods. None of this behavior was found in the participants with switches. When these problematic cases where eliminated from the analysis, the thermostat participants had similar kW impacts as participants with switches. . A 67% cycling scheme results in a significant increase in kW savings, while the aggregate effect on the temperature of the house is only 0.270 relative to 50% cycling. Therefore , IPCo should be comfortable with using this higher cycling rate when the need anses. Summit Blue Consulting 20041PCO AlC Draft Final Report ATTACHMENT TO RESPONSE TO STAFF PRODUCTION REQUEST NO. Idaho Power Consulting Agreement AIC Cycling Program Load Analysis ,..-;' , Q; 7 C/:5 ~- . .::.' - CONSULTING AGREEMENT This Agreement ("Agreement") is entered into as of this ~"" day Dc bhuL 2004, by and between Idaho Power Company, located at 1221 Idaho Street, P.O. Box 70, Boise, Idaho 83702 IPCO"), and Summit Blue Consulting, 1722 14th S1., Suite 230, Boulder, CO 80802 ("Consultant" WHEREAS , IPCO is a federally regulated investor-owned utility engaged in the business of providing electrical energy to its customers located in the states of Idaho and in eastern Oregon; and; WHEREAS, Consultant is highly skilled and experienced in providing statistical data analysis; and WHEREAS, in 2003 , IPCo initiated a two-year Air Conditioning Cycling Pilot Program (the Program ), designed to reduce residential electrical demand during peak summer periods and WHEREAS, IPCO has completed year two of the Program and desires to retain Consultant to assist it in conducting a statistical analysis of the data resulting from the second year of the Program, as more specifically set forth below; and WHEREAS , IPCO intends to use the results of Consultant's statistical data analysis to determine the effect of cycling air conditioners on participants' power demand , energy usage, and comfort, and to determine what difference, if any, exists between thermostats and switches on these effects. NOW, THEREFORE, IT IS AGREED AS FOLLOWS: Section 1. Work to Be Provided by Consultant.IPCO desires to retain Consultant to perform statistical data analysis services, as described in Exhibit A, Scope of Work, attached hereto and incorporated herein by this reference. Consultant shall provide all labor, materials, equipment, tools, supervision and all other goods and services incidental to or necessary for satisfactory performance and completion of the Scope of Work consistent with the desired goals of IPCO and in accordance with and reasonably inferable from the Scope of Work, this Agreement, and any amendments or attachments hereto (together which will hereinafter be referred to as the "Work" Section 2 Time for Performance.Consultant agrees to begin Work no later than October 4 2004 and to complete the Work by December 10, 2004. Consultant shall deliver progress reports and samples of the Work in progress to IPCO at times outlined in the Scope of Work, and as IPCO shall reasonably request. Section 3. Contract Price and Manner of Payment For the full and satisfactory performance of the Work Consultant shall be paid by IPCO, in the manner and at the times hereinafter specified, an amount not to exceed $25.830.Compensation shall be based upon time and materials and approved expenses, as set forth in Exhibit B, Compensation Schedule. On or as soon as practicable after the first day of each month, Consultant shall prepare and submit to IPCO an invoice covering Recoverable Costs. Recoverable Costs are defined as Time and Materials incurred during the previous month. All Recoverable Costs shall Final Rev.1 01 1 12004 Page 1 of 8 Idaho Power Consulting Agreement AIC Cycling Program Load Analysis be broken out by task. Consultant shall furnish detailed documentation of the items contained in the invoice. IPCO shall pay to Consultant within thirty (30) days after receipt of the invoice any undisputed amounts contained on said invoice. Section 4. Relationship of the Parties. It is the intent of the parties hereto that Consultant has been retained in the capacity of an independent contractor only. Neither Consultant nor IPCO consider Consultant to be an agent or employee of IPCO for any purpose. IPCO is interested only in the results obtained under this Agreement. The manner and means of performing the Work and of creating the Work are subject to Consultant's sole control. Section 5. Taxes. Consultant shall be responsible for all state, federal, and local taxes, estimated taxes and social security, and employment taxes and reporting for Consultant and any employees or agents of Consultant. Section 6. License. Consultant hereby grants, bargains, sells, assigns, licenses, transfers, conveys and sets over (all herein called "grants ) on a non-exclusive basis to IPCO all of its full and unlimited right title and interest in any pre-existing copyrighted and/or proprietary work which is incorporated into the Work by Consultant. This grant shall be for an unlimited duration. Consultant shall not be entitled to any additional compensation for such grant. If so requested by the IPCO, Consultant shall cooperate with IPCO in executing all such assignments, oaths, declarations, and other documents as may be prepared by IPCO to effect the foregoing. Section 7. Records. Consultant agrees to keep full and accurate records of all Work performed and all costs, bills and expenses associated with the Work or charged to IPCO during the performance of the Work and for a period of not less than two years after completion of this Project. Consultant's records will be subject to audit by IPCO upon reasonable notice. All records, drawings, programs, manuals reports, and other documentation created in connection with this Work shall be and remain the sole property of the IPCO. Consultant shall deliver to IPCO all copies of such documents on request by IPCO. Section 8. Responsibility of Consultant.During the term of this Agreement, Consultant agrees to provide sufficient qualified staff and personnel, office and field equipment, transportation and supplies as are necessary to fulfill its obligations under this Agreement, except as otherwise provided for in writing by IPCO, and shall furnish and maintain any and all state, county and municipal licenses or permits which apply to the Work to be performed by Consultant. All manufacturers ' warranties relative to goods and materials which are a part of this Agreement shall be assigned to IPCO upon termination of this Agreement. Section 9. Warranty of Workl Standard of Care. Work provided hereunder by Consultant shall be provided in a timely and expeditious manner and shall be performed to the highest degree professional skill and consistent with IPCO's intended results. Goods and materials provided under this Agreement shall be new, warranted against defects of any nature in material or design and shall be suitable for the use intended. IPCO's acceptance of documents or Work provided under this Agreement shall not be deemed to relieve Consultant of its professional responsibility for the technical adequacy of its Work. Final Rev.l 0/1/2004 Page 2 of 8 Idaho Power Consulting Agreement AIC Cycling Program Load Analysis Section 10. Correction of Work.Consultant agrees to correct to IPCO's satisfaction without any additional compensation any deficiencies resulting from its defective Work, Work not in compliance with IPCO's specifications or from its negligent perfonnance of Work. This obligation shall survive the completion of the Work provided herein and the tennination of this Agreement. Section 11. Qualifications. Consultant hereby represents and warrants to Company that all statements and materials regarding its qualifications to perform the work contemplated under this Agreement are true and correct and are not misleading or incomplete for any reason including by reason of omission. Consultant recognizes and agrees that Company may immediately terminate this Agreement Consultant has misstated its qualifications or the qualifications of its employees, consultants, agents, or representatives, to perform the work contemplated under this Agreement or otherwise breached its representations and warranties set forth in this section. Section 12 Independent Contractor. Nothing contained in this Agreement shall create or be construed as creating the relationship of employer and employee, or partnership, or joint venture between IPCO and Consultant, or between IPCo and any person or persons employed or engaged by Consultant. Section 13 Consultant's Representative.Consultant hereby designates Michael Ozog to represent Consultant in all communications, transactions and matters with IPCO associated with this Agreement. The representative shall be empowered to render decisions and provide information in a timely manner. Section 14 Responsibility of IPCO. IPCO hereby designates Celeste Becia or an alternate designee as representative to review and accept documents submitted by Consultant and represent IPCO in all matters associated with this Agreement. The representative shall be empowered to render decisions and provide information in a timely manner. However, any modification to this Agreement must be made in writing and signed by both parties, as otherwise set forth in this Agreement. Section 15 Safety.Consultant will be solely and completely responsible for the training of its employees and the conditions of the work site, including safety of all persons- and property during the performance of the Work. This requirement will apply continuously and will not be limited to normal working hours. Consultant REPRESENTS TO IPCO THAT ALL PERSONNEL PROVIDING WORK HA VE BEEN PROPERLY TRAINED, CERTIFIED, AND LICENSED (as and when applicable) TO PERFORM THE SERVICES THEY ARE PROVIDING PURSUANT TO THIS AGREEMENT. Section 16 Indemnification.Consultant shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless IPCO and its officers, directors, affiliates, agents and employees from and against all claims, actions, damages losses, penalties, and expenses, including reasonable attorneys' fees and disbursements , arising out of or resulting from a breach of this Agreement, a breach in the performance of the Work performed under this Agreement, or any act or omission of Consultant, or any subcontractor of Consultant, or anyone directly or indirectly employed by any of them, or anyone for whose acts any of them may be liable. Section 17 Ownership Of Documents. All documents including calculations, computer data estimates, specifications, survey information and data obtained or provided by Consultant connection with the Work shall be supplied to , and be the property of, IPCO. Final Rev.! 0/1/2004 Page 3 of 8 Idaho Power Consulting Agreement AIC Cycling Program Load Analysis Section 18 Intellectual Property. IPCO shall have sole title to any and all creative works, patents copyrights and/or intellectual property rights that arise out of or are the result of the Work performed pursuant to this Agreement. Consultant hereby indemnifies IPCO and holds it hannless from all damages awarded against IPCO and all reasonable expenses incurred by IPCO, including but not limited to reasonable attorneys' fees, as the result of any claim of trade secret, patent, copyright, or other intellectual property right infringement asserted against IPCO by virtue of IPCO's use of any software as delivered and/or maintained by Consultant, provided that Consultant is given prompt notice of any such claim and the right to control and direct the investigation, preparation, defense and settlement of each such claim at Consultant's expense and further provided that IPCO shall fully cooperate with Consultant at Consultant's expense in connection with the foregoing. Section 19 Force Maieure . If Consultant is delayed at any time by labor disputes, fire, unavoidable casualties, or other causes beyond Consultant's control , then the term of this Agreement shall be extended by IPCO for such reasonable time as IPCO determines, but only if Consultant gives IPCO immediate written notice setting forth the reasons for the delay and the estimated time in which Work can be resumed. Section 20. Insurance and Certificate Consultant shall procure in compliance with this Article from insurer(s) with an A- or better rating from A.M. Best Company. Worker s Compensation Insurance shall be at statutory limits and shall comply with the laws of the state in which the work is to be performed. Employer s Liability Insurance shall have the following minimum limits: Bodily Injury by Accident $100 000 each accident Bodily Injury by Disease $500 000 policy limit Bodily Injury by Disease $100 000 each employee Automobile Liability Insurance covering all owned, non-owned, or hired automobiles used in connection with the work. Bodily Injury and Property Damage Liability limits shall not be less than $1 000 000 each accident Combined Single Limit. An endorsement shall be issued naming IPCO as an additional insured. Commercial General Liability Insurance, with limits not less than $1 000 000 each occurrence Combined Single Limit. An endorsement shall be issued naming IPCO as an additional insured. Any of the Consultant's subcontractors of any tier shall be required by the Consultant under the terms of any subcontract to obtain like insurance coverage to that specified in Paragraphs A, B and C of this Article. Prior to commencing work under this Agreement, Consultant shall provide to IPCO a Certificate of Insurance evidencing such insurance coverage and naming Idaho Power Company as an additional insured on the coverages described in Paragraphs B and C. These Certificates shall contain a provision that coverages afforded shall not be canceled until at least thirty (30) days Final Rev.IO/1/2004 Page 4 of8 Idaho Power Consulting Agreement AIC Cycling Program Load Analysis prior written notice has been given to the IPCD. Section 21 Termination.IPCO may, at its option, terminate this Agreement in whole or in part any time by written notice thereof to Consultant whether or not Consultant is in default. Upon such termination, Consultant shall waive any claims for damages, including loss of anticipated profits, on account thereof, but as the sole right and remedy of Consultant, IPCD shall pay Consultant all amounts due and not previously paid to Consultant for Work thereafter satisfactorily completed as specified in such notice plus Consultant's reasonable expenses for winding up the terminated Work. Upon receipt of any such notice, Consultant shall, unless the notice requires otherwise, immediately discontinue Work on the date and to the extent specified in the notice. Consultant may terminate this Agreement in the event of non-payment of costs and fees by IPCO no sooner than ten (10) days following delivery of written notice from Consultant to IPCO that such amounts are past due. Section 22. Notices. Notices, letters, or other communications made in connection with this Agreement shall be mailed or delivered with a copy sent to the individuals and at the numbers and addresses provided in this Section 22. The hand delivery at the addresses listed below or depositing in a post-paid envelope with the mailing address as designated below in any post office, along with e-mail copies to the individual specified, of a letter or other communication shall be deemed sufficient notice of service thereof upon the party to whom it is sent and the date of such notice or service shall be the date of such delivery or depositing. Address: Attention: Idaho Power Company Celeste Becia, CH Q 7 PO Box 70 Boise, ID 83707 Business Phone: 388-5331 Copy bye-mail to: cbecia~idahopower.com Consultant: Ch.Attention: \0 't'. ++-~- Address: rZ'2- fl(~ $'+ Phone: 72D ~(pq- Facsimile No. /20' 5C.R.!1.:LJ Copy bye-mail to: . J t--\-t' $("cb.L J-~ t?O1,,\CllV CO 2$03:0 , "' )j r"Y\ I (e-mail address) Section 23. No Assignment.Neither this Agreement nor any of the rights or duties contained herein shall be assigned or delegated by Consultant without prior written approval of IPCO. Section 24 Additional Work.Consultant shall not add to or deduct from the Work without the express written authorization from IPCO. Consultant will be responsible for all costs arising out of or related to added or deducted work that is not properly authorized in advance of its performance. Final Rev.10/1/2004 Page 5 of 8 , . Idaho Power Consulting Agreement AIC Cycling Program Load Analysis Section 25. Equal Employment.During performance under this contract, Consultant agrees to comply with all applicable equal employment opportunity, small business, and affirmative action laws and regulations to which Consultant is subject and agrees to execute and deliver such documents as may be required to effect or to evidence such compliance. All EEO and affirmative action laws and regulations required in agreements of this character are hereby incorporated by this reference, including provisions of 38 U.S. C. ~ 4212, Executive Order 11246, as amended, and any subsequent executive orders or other laws or regulations relating to equal opportunity for employment on government contracts. Section 26 Governing Law. Enforcement and/or interpretation of this Agreement shall be in the state court of the State of Idaho, and all parties hereby submit to the jurisdiction of said court for the stated purpose. Furthermore, this Agreement shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of Idaho. Venue shall be in Ada County, Idaho. Section 27 Entire Agreement. This writing, and the following documents attached hereto and incorporated by reference, shall constitute the full agreement of the parties and shall supersede any other terms and conditions proposed by or representations made by the parties. Section 28. Severability.If any provisions of this Agreement shall be held to contravene or be invalid under the laws of any state, country, or jurisdiction where used, such contravention shall not invalidate the entire Agreement, but it shall be construed as if not containing the particular provision or provisions held to be invalid in such state, country, or jurisdiction, and the rights or obligations of the parties hereto shall be construed and enforced accordingly. Section 29 Modification.This Agreement may not be modified except by a writing duly signed both the parties hereto. Section 30 Confidentiality.Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in this Agreement, to the extent that, in connection with this engagement, Consultant comes into possession of any proprietary or confidential information of the Company, Consultant will not disclose such information to any third party without the Company s consent, except (a) as may be required by law, regulation, judicial or administrative process, or in accordance with applicable professional standards, or in connection with litigation pertaining hereto, or (b) to the extent such information (i) shall have otherwise become publicly available (including, without limitation, any information filed with any governmental agency and available to the public) other than as the result of a disclosure by Consultant in breach hereof, or (ii) is developed by Consultant independently of any disclosures made by the Company to Consultant of such information. IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties hereto have entered into this Agreement effective as of the day and year first herein above written. \ '\ .. l\)~, " ' ,..( ' ~onsultant) ,,"--. / By: ~::~~.( ~-- ,? ' ;' TItle: ( f'.QVlcJl) .. IDAHO POWER COMPANY (IPCO) y.;, ~~~ Tit1e:G.eI)~~~ -~otnJ'o.. tvl~ Final Rev.IO/1/2004 Page 6 of 8 Idaho Power Consulting Agreement A/C Cycling Program Load Analysis Exhibit A Scope of Work Pursuant to this Agreement to provide statistical data analysis for year two of Idaho Power Company s ("IPCO") Air Conditioning Cycling Pilot Program (the "Program ) Summit Blue Consulting Consultant") shall perform the following tasks (cumulatively referred to hereinafter as the "Work"). All Work performed by Consultant for the Program shall hereinafter be referred to as the "Project" 1. Project Startup Communications Identify and define research questions and decision factors that are to be addressed by the Project. Identify actions that IPCO might take as a result of the Program research. Focus research on key uncertainties, pivotal facbrs and actionable items. Deliverable: Subject to the Project starting on or before October 4 2004, and to IPCO's ability to set up a Project initiation telephone meeting on or about October 6, 2004, Consultant shall draft a brief memorandum covering theoutcome of the Project initiation tasks, the work plan, action items, and responsible parties. This memorandum shall be produced by October 11 , 2004. 2. Inventory Data Provided by IPCD Thennostat temperature Metered ale demand from sample Cycling intelVal data from both thennostats and data loggers Whole house meter data Deliverable: Pursuant to this task, Consultant shall build a comprehensive analysis database that will contain all the infonnation necessary to detennine energy and demand impacts. This database will be completed by October 22 2004. 3. Estimate kW and kWh Impacts Deliverables. The deliverables for this task will be estimates of the kW and kWh impacts of A/C cycling, the impact of cycling on the household's temperature, the diffennce between year 2003 participants and year 2004 participants, and the difference between thennostats and DLC switches. These results will be presented in a draft written report provided to IPCO no later than November 1 2004. 4. Prepare Draft and Final Written Reports The draft and final written reports will contain the following elements: Executive Summary, Introduction, Methodology, Results, Conclusions and Recommendations, and an Appendix. After receiving IPCO's comments on the draft report Consultant's Project team will revise the report accordingly and resubmit it to IPCO. De/iverables: The deliverables under this task are a draft written report and a fmal written report. The draft report will be given to IPCO by November 1, 2004, and the fnal report incorporating revisions will be completed no later than December 1, 2004. Drs. Ozog and Violette will do a fmal presentation at IPCo. Final Rev.10/1/2004 Page 7 of 8 Idaho Power Consulting Agreement AIC Cycling Program Load Analysis Exhibit B, Compensation Schedule Phase Two With Direct Load Control Switch Participants Labor Name ' Daniel Violette 2MichaeiOzog Materials Telephone 2FedEx Other Costs 1 Airfare 2 Per Diem Total Cost Not to Exceed: Final Rev.I0/1/2004 Task Description Hourly Rate # Hours TotalPrinciple 200 24 $4 800Senior Consultant 135 148 $19 980 Description Unit Cost Total $100 $100 # Units Description Unit Cost # Units Total $600 $250 $25 830 Page 8 of 8 ATTACHMENT RESPONSE TO STAFF PRODUCTION REQUEST NO. AC Cycling Program Year Estimated Budget Variable Cost Inputs Cost of Switch Installation Cost Incentive Amount (Annual) Communication--per new participant Communication--per existing participant Maintenance (2% of Installed base * $70) 110 $ 10.$ 2. 1.40 Other Inputs Churn Rate Participants added in ' , ' Participants added in '07 thru ' 000 000 Participant Schedule 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Participants Added 000 100 200 800 13,400 Participants Leaving 100 200 800 400 000 Total Participants 000 000 000 000 000 Total Overall Participants 000 000 16,000 28,000 40,000 Projected Proaram Costs Administration and Promotion 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Fixed Ongoing 0 & M Costs + Annual Evaluation $118 000 118 000 118 000 118 000 118,000 Variable Communication--New 000 000 122 000 128 000 134 000 Communication--Existing 000 000 000 000 100 000 Subtotal $ 145 800 154 600 302,400 355 200 408 000 Capital Equipment and Installation One-time Load Mgt Master Station Hardware 000 Load Mgt Master Station Software 000 On-oin Fixed Software Maintenance 000 000 000 000 000 Paging Service 800 800 800 800 800 Variable Cost of Switch 220 000 231 000 342 000 408,000 474 000 Installation Cost 140 000 147 000 854 000 896 000 938 000 Maintenance (2% of Installed base * $75)800 600 22,400 200 56,000 Subtotal $ 454 600 405 400 240 200 365 000 489 800 Incentives Paid to Customers Incentive Amount 000 000 336 000 588 000 840,000 Subtotal 000 000 336,000 588,000 840 000 Total Annual Cost $ 639 600 638,400 856 200 269,000 681 800 Note: Program costs have been estimated prior to receiving RFP bids for equipment, installation and maintenance. Actual costs may vary after bids have been received and awarded February 1 , 2005. Prepared by Idaho Power 1/4/2005