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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC RBC_Industry_Note_2008_10_24_Target_Price_Changes.pdfINDUSTRY |COMMENT OCTOBER 24, 2008 Market Conditions and Mild Weather Prompt Price and Estimate Revisions Revising Target Prices and 3Q08 Estimates Only for Now Based on current market conditions and the expected economic woes for 2009, we are lowering our target prices across our coverage universe. Our calculated net asset values (CNAVs) and ratings remain unchanged for now, since we view the revisions detailed in this note as largely based on market sentiment rather than on company-specific fundamentals. We are also lowering our 3Q08 adjusted EPS estimates for AES, AYE, DUK, DYN and PNM due to mild weather and lower expected electricity demand during the quarter, among other reasons. We will review our 4Q08, FY08 and FY09 estimates and expect to introduce our 2010 estimates in our company-specific 3Q08 earnings notes. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). All values in USD unless otherwise noted. RBC Capital Markets Corp. Lasan Johong (Analyst) (212) 428-6462; lasan.johong@rbccm.com Emily Christy (Associate) (212) 428-6970; emily.christy@rbccm.com Ella Vuernick (Associate) (212) 428-6492; ella.vuernick@rbccm.com For Required Disclosures, please see Page 9. 2 Details Market Conditions and Mild Weather Prompt Price and Estimate RevisionsOctober 24, 2008 3 Valuations and Price Target Impediments AES Valuation:Our target price is $25, our CNAV is $56 and our rating is Top Pick. We believe that the stock will be pushed towards our target price over the next 12-18 months by a strong pipeline of growth projects, robust global economic outlook, and removal of accounting uncertainties. Also, the "decks have been cleared" for AES to resume its growth story. While the rest of the utility sector may be challenged in 2008 and beyond, we believe that investors will favorably view the value proposition that AES brings in due course, given the company's multi-year high-growth EPS and cash flow story. Therefore, we believe there is significant upside left to the stock. And, given our CNAV, the upside potential could be well above our target price. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model, while our target price is based on what we believe the stock performance will be through the end of the year. Specifically, we discount our target to our CNAV due to the company's growth profile, investor concern for global risk, and credit market turmoil. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 6.89%. Our terminal value multiple of 14.6x is calculated at approximately 25 years from the most recently reported quarter. Price Target Impediments:Coordinated or unexpected global recession, bad acquisitions/investments, terrorism, negative headlines, political/currency risk, commodity prices, weather. AYE Valuation: Our CNAV for AYE is $67 and our target price is $48 per share. Our target price is set at a discount to our CNAV due to regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic weakness anticipated in 2009. We estimate strong organic growth over the next three years, based on strong FCFAID, good growth prospects, a strong balance sheet and strategic options. This potential is balanced against strategic risks of cash deployment, outstanding regulatory issues, potential for over-hedging, potential for increasing the cost of capital due to lower leverage ratio, and project delays or changes. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC currently valued at 6.93%. Our terminal value multiple of 11.9x is calculated at 297 months from March 2008. Price Target Impediments:Economic recession, regulatory interference/change, operations outside of management's control, lack of growth projects in the future, weather, interest rates, and commodity prices. BKH Valuation:Our CNAV for Black Hills is $42 per share, and our target price is $36. We set our target at a discount of 14% to CNAV due to macroeconomic issues and current market conditions, as well as uncertainty around the future of oil and gas production. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 8.59%. Our terminal value multiple of 10.5x is calculated at approximately 25 years from the most recently reported quarter. Price Target Impediments:Integration of Aquila acquisition; rate regulations may not be favorable, particularly for gas utilities (post-ILA deal close); higher volatility due to commodity-price exposure from E&P business and other unregulated businesses could derail move towards target; moderate weather patterns could be damaging; economic turmoil, interest rate risk, tied to capital market access. CNP Valuation:Our target price is $16, which is set at approximately a 36% discount to our calculated CNAV of $25 per share. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 15.8x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 4.59%. The terminal value is calculated at approximately 25 years from June 2008. Our 36% discount is predicated on our belief that more visibility is needed for certain long-term projects before the full value of CNP will be realized by investors, as well as uncertainty around macroeconomic issues and current market conditions. We look for continued development and investments in growth projects, potential accretive acquisitions, and the steady increase in earnings and dividend that characterizes a strong utility. Price Target Impediments:Poor economic performance in Texas and other states in which CNP has operations, moderate weather, unexpected transmission and distribution outages, poor acquisitions, spiking commodity could have an indirect effect; inability to Market Conditions and Mild Weather Prompt Price and Estimate RevisionsOctober 24, 2008 4 expand its electric and natural gas transmission and distribution system. DUK Valuation:Our CNAV is $22, and our target price is $20. We assign our target at a discount to CNAV due to macroeconomic issues and current market conditions. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 10.7x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 8.52%. The terminal value is calculated about 25 years from June 2008. As a pure-play electric utility with a small fleet of commercial generation, Duke Energy continues to perform as expected with solid operations, reliable earnings, and steady dividends. Price Target Impediments:Decline in value of power portfolio, unfavorable regulatory rulings, onerous carbon emission legislation, cost overruns on capex projects, unwise acquisitions, and unforeseen operational setbacks or shutdowns. DYN Valuation:Our target price is $8 and our CNAV is $13 per share. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 11.6x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 7.75%. The terminal value is calculated roughly 25 years from the most recently reported quarter. Our target price is discounted to our CNAV due to macroeconomic woes anticipated for 2009. We believe that given its minimalist hedging strategy, valuation upside is the strongest with Dynegy among its peers, which could make it the most enticing investment vehicle in an upward bound commodity fundamental environment. Also, in such a scenario, higher financial leverage should work to the benefit of DYN investors and not against, which adds more to the upside potential, in our view. However, we believe timing is key. Price Target Impediments:Lower than modeled natural gas prices, economic recession, reduced demand, lack of opportunities for growth, regulatory interference, slow or no deregulation, weather, change of strategy, basis differentials, and M&A. EIX Valuation:Our CNAV is $69. Our target price is $49 and represents a discount to the CNAV due primarily to general market and economic weakness in the U.S., need for capital to finance growth, need for regulatory approval for projects and settlement of the lease tax issue with the IRS. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of about 11.4x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 7.37%. The terminal value is calculated approximately 25 years forward. As SCE is a regulated electric utility with what we consider to be solid growth prospects and a favorable regulatory structure, we expect it to outperform its peers. The upside of the Edison Mission Group adds shareholder value while minimizing additional risk, in our view. We believe that strong operations, proven cost controls, solid financial metrics, and favorable power fundamentals should result in steady earnings growth for EIX. Price Target Impediments:Weather, economy, interest rates, environmental concerns, regulatory risk, access to capital markets, IRS tax settlement, and development cost increases, among others. HTM Valuation:Our target price is $3 and our CNAV is $4. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of about 8.6x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 10.00%. The terminal value is calculated approximately 24 years forward. Our target price is discounted to our CNAV due to macroeconomic woes anticipated in 2009. As a geothermal operator and developer, HTM should benefit from the considerable federal and state support of renewable energy, in our view. Although a relatively start-up operation, its projects in the pipeline have secured contract commitments from utilities. As global warming fears continue, concerns over energy security persist, and carbon legislation becomes a reality, HTM should have power plants coming online and ready to capture the upside from geothermal energy. We believe the upside potential outweighs the risks at this time. We have modeled conservatively and increased the beta to account for the risk profile. Price Target Impediments:Contract risks, tax law risks, access to capital markets, construction cost overruns, exploration risks, commodity prices, operational risk, and regulatory risk. IDA Valuation:Our CNAV is $38 and our target price is $33. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 11.0x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 8.10%. The terminal value is calculated approximately 25 years forward. Market Conditions and Mild Weather Prompt Price and Estimate RevisionsOctober 24, 2008 5 As a pure-play electric utility with a significant hydroelectric generation fleet, IDA operates in a heavily regulated environment. Considering the risk management policies of IDA, the Idaho regulatory structure, solid operations and the above-average population growth for the service territory, the company continues to perform as expected. Due to hydrology and regulatory risk and macroeconomic weakness anticipated for 2009, we assign our target price at a discount to CNAV at this time. Price Target Impediments:Volatile hydrology, unfavorable regulatory decisions, poor growth project selections, operational setbacks, changes in credit ratings, environmental regulations, cost overruns with the capex projects, and weather. LNG Valuation:Our target price is $7 and our CNAV is $13. We determine CNAV based on a discounted cash flow model, using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of about 12.2x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of about 6.78%. The terminal value is calculated approximately 25 years forward. Our target price discount of $6 to our CNAV is due to uncertainty around the timing of the arrival of steady cargos and continued investor skepticism about the company's business model. Cheniere has stable cash flows from its contracts with third parties, and potential upside from its marketing business. However, without marketing revenues upside is limited. Therefore, much volatility surrounds the stock. In the long term, we believe Cheniere should be well positioned to capitalize on the arrival of LNG to North America, given its business model. Given its objective of developing a pure-play LNG company, its business model, and aspirations for cargo deliveries, we believe Cheniere should be able to provide value to shareholders; however, not without risk. We will continue to assess both risk and opportunity as the company commences operations of Sabine Pass, and continues its efforts to attract significant cargos. Price Target Impediments:Chapter 11 filing risk, start-up nature, commodity prices, ability to secure contracts (under favorable terms), ability to secure steady supply, regulatory risk, weather, access to capital markets, increasing construction costs, and potential environmental legislation. MIR Valuation:Our CNAV for Mirant is $45 per share, but our target price is $33. The discount is due to uncertainty around the company's risk management practices, hedging strategy and difficulties due to current economic environment. On a stand-alone basis, we believe that cash return to shareholders, development of its brownfield projects, and increase in macro fundamentals are positives, which are offset by its hedging program and lack of a long-term cohesive growth program. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 8.05%. Our terminal value multiple of 11.3x is calculated at approximately 25 years from the most recently reported quarter. Price Target Impediments:Potential high cost of capital, decreasing margins from high fuel costs, political risk, high levels of environmental capital spending, economic recession, and risk management complications. NRG Valuation:Our calculated net-asset-value (CNAV) is $45, but our price target is $37. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 12.7x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 6.77%. The terminal value is calculated about 25 years from June 2008. The target discount to our CNAV is due to ongoing financial market disruption, increased risk premium, and poor asset valuations in the current market. Despite our longer-term reservations on NRG's hedging, PJM capacity payments and greenfield strategies, we believe that the market currently undervalues the stock and we expect that the quarterly results and certain financial engineering practices justify our valuation at this time. Price Target Impediments:Interest rates, leverage, fuel prices, weather, economy, hedging, strong fundamental uplift, and regulatory risk. OKE Valuation:Our CNAV for ONEOK is $56 per share and our target price is $40. In the short term, we expect strong fundamentals to serve as a tailwind for OKE, particularly at OKS. Also, increasing LP distributions and incentive sharing of GP distributions should drive growth in the near term. Over the next five years, we expect good opportunities, growth, and increasing dividends, bolstered by increasing demand for natural gas, especially in the generation sector. However, as LNG is introduced into North America in large quantities, we believe that opportunities and risks in natural gas businesses will present themselves as they do in any transition period. Due to this uncertainty, as well as macroeconomic issues and current market conditions, we assign our target price of $40 at a discount Market Conditions and Mild Weather Prompt Price and Estimate RevisionsOctober 24, 2008 6 of 29% to CNAV of $56 at this time. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 6.46%. Our terminal value multiple of 13.1x is calculated at approximately 25 years from the most recently reported quarter. Price Target Impediments:Long-term commodity fundamentals and LNG, which may lead to obsolescence of certain business, near-term commodity price risk, access to growth opportunities or acquisitions for OKS, regulatory interference or short-sightedness, demographic shift, economic malaise, and weather. ORA Valuation:Our CNAV is $74. Our target price of $60 is set at a discount until more visibility on future projects is realized, and general market recovery occurs in the U.S. economy. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 9.4x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 9.86%. The terminal value is calculated at about 25 years forward. Price Target Impediment:Drilling difficulties for new projects, thermal reservoir problems, execution risk, economy, permitting, land management, legislative risk and regulatory risk. PCG Valuation:Our CNAV for PG&E is $50 per share. Our target price of $44 is at a 12% discount to our CNAV. The discount is based on cost pressures, slowed customer growth and the loss of investor confidence stemming from the disappointing 3Q07 results. Longer term, we believe additional rate-based growth projects will provide additional upside to management's stated long-term EPS growth rate of 8%, and a rational regulatory regime should continue to support consistent earnings for electric and gas distribution. We believe PCG value will be fueled by strong rate-based growth, high management credibility, good strategic vision, solid execution to date, and strong regulatory relationships. In the near term, there are financial considerations posed by the current state of credit markets. If debt market conditions worsen, earnings could suffer as a result of increased interest expense, and the stock could drop before reaching our target. However, we believe these credit concerns are temporary, and in our view PCG is well positioned given its investment grade ratings, credit quality and strong regulatory relationships. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 6.02%. Our terminal value multiple of 13.1x is calculated at approximately 25 years from the most recently reported quarter. Price Target Impediment:Near-term credit market concerns, poor economic performance in California, regulatory and legislative risks and impediments, activists (environmental, legislative, regulatory, among others), warmer than normal summer weather or colder than normal winter weather, unexpected transmission or distribution outages (electricity and natural gas), inability to expand transmission and distribution system (electricity and natural gas), and volatility in commodity prices. PNM Valuation:Our CNAV is $18 per share and our target price is $13. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 11.5x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 7.51%. The terminal value is calculated at approximately 25 years from the last reported quarter. Our discount is predicated on our belief that investors will not look past the immediate regulatory concerns and towards the potential growth until the matters are resolved in 1H09. We believe that the company is capable of achieving these objectives with time and regulatory understanding. Price Target Impediments:Valuation of PNM assets for JV, plant availability, bad regulatory outcomes, turbulent wholesale markets, NIMBY issues, and regional economic recession. RRI Valuation:We determine our $20 CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 9.3x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 10.35%. The terminal value is calculated at about 25 years forward. We set our target price at $15 – a discount to our CNAV of $20 – based on unquantifiable retail risks, market uncertainty, and commodity-price expectations. We believe that RRI's approach to achieving wholesale upside, combined with higher pricing in the PJM, tightening supply/demand fundamentals, and flexibility with investments and growth strategies will continue to drive solid earnings. Price Target Impediments:Regulatory and political interference, higher than expected decay in retail gross profit due to higher Market Conditions and Mild Weather Prompt Price and Estimate RevisionsOctober 24, 2008 7 defection of price-to-beat customers, lower than expected increase in customer conversion to RRI outside of the Houston area, economic recession, particularly in Texas, credit risk, moderate weather, difficult wholesale market environment, and worsening electricity market liquidity. SE Valuation:Our CNAV for Spectra is $40 per share; our target price is set at $28. Spectra's asset base serves areas of increasingly high demand. The target price discount to our CNAV is due to risks associated with an expansion program, as well as macroeconomic issues and current market conditions. Existing operations and growth projects in response to strong demand should produce good earnings growth into the foreseeable future. Additionally, rate-based pipeline businesses provide stability to the platform, while MLP has the ability fund future growth projects. Strategically, the company is well positioned to take advantage of the inflow of LNG into North America. In our view, the strong asset base and growth plan, as operated by an experience management team, indicate the potential for further upside value in the stock price over the next 12 months. We believe the intrinsic value of the company is higher due to extensive growth projects than the short-term upside; accordingly, we set our target of $28 at a discount of approximately 30% to our CNAV of $40. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 7.29%. Our terminal value multiple of 11.9x is calculated at approximately 25 years from the most recently reported quarter. Price Target Impediments:Unfavorable commodity prices, project cost overruns, poor acquisitions, operational setbacks, environmental concerns, lower demand, and weather. SRE Valuation:Our CNAV for Sempra Energy is $77 and our target price is $65. The discount exists due to capital spending requirements, construction in progress, and other capital projects that are in progress or in the planning stages, as well as macroeconomic issues and current market conditions. In the longer term, we believe SRE exhibits strong organic growth potential over the next four years, fueled by the growing need for risk management products, LNG and generation growth opportunities, utility sector consolidation and tightening reserve margins. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 7.50%. Our terminal value multiple of 11.2x is calculated at roughly 25-years from the most recent quarter. Price Target Impediments:California risk (political, regulatory, environmental, legislative and activist) NIMBY issues, poor infrastructure in California, moderate or very extreme weather, poor acquisition decisions, poor economic performance in California, cost escalations, and closing of Energy South. SRP Valuation:Our target price is $12, which is set at a discount to our CNAV of about $17 per share. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of about 12.5x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 6.94%. The terminal value is calculated at about 25 years from June 2008. Our discount is predicated on our belief that SRP's organic growth potential will outweigh current economic concerns as projects become more visible, but perhaps not in the next 12 months. Given our strong estimated CAGR over the next five years, our CNAV, strong FCFAID, good growth prospects, improving balance sheet, strategic options, strong regulatory relationships, conservative valuation and strong rate-based investment growth, we believe that our valuation is appropriate at this time. Price Target Impediments:Equity issuances, commodity-price volatility, weather, economy, interest rates, access to capital markets, credit rating initiatives and regulatory risks, among others. SUG Valuation:Our CNAV for Southern Union is $30 per share; we have set our target price at $20. Due to macroeconomic issues and current market conditions, as well as near-term uncertainty, we assign our target price at a 33% discount to CNAV at this time. In the longer term, we believe SUG's strategic objective is to be well positioned for the arrival of LNG to North America, and expand delivery capability into the Midwest, Florida and the Northeast. While we do not think that forming an MLP to run the gathering and processing business is optimal, we do believe that the MLP could create shareholder value, and that SUG should continue producing steady earnings. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 7.20%. Our terminal value multiple of 11.9x is calculated at approximately 25 years from the most recently reported Market Conditions and Mild Weather Prompt Price and Estimate RevisionsOctober 24, 2008 8 quarter. Price Target Impediments:Commodity price volatility, dependent on volatility of E&P business, changing fundamentals in natural gas, moderate or very extreme weather, poor acquisition decisions, economic recession, and sub-optimal reasons for formation of MLP. TE Valuation:Our CNAV is $22 and our target price is $18. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity after the sale of Transport. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of about 12.3x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 6.94%. The terminal value is calculated approximately 25 years forward. Our target price is discounted due to macroeconomic weakness anticipated for 2009. As a regulated electric utility, TE should produce consistent earnings and steady dividends for years to come, in our view. Although the coal business and Guatemala investment divert managerial attention from the growing utility, the company's recent sale of its transport business reduced the company's risk profile. This sale combined with the company's accelerated debt repayment plan strengthened the balance sheet and led to upgrades from credit agencies in 2007. Price Target Impediments:Commodity prices, weather, regulatory risk, access to capital markets, construction cost overruns, FL economy, and potential environmental legislation. WMB Valuation:Our CNAV for Williams is $50 per share and our target price is $35. We believe that E&P will drive growth, with pipeline operations bringing stability to the business model. We assign our target price of $35 at a 30% discount to our CNAV of $50, which denotes longer-term value, due to macroeconomic issues and current market conditions. We determine our CNAV using a full discounted cash flow model assuming a multi-stage growth profile, using a dynamic WACC initially valued at 8.37%. Our terminal value multiple of 10.9x is calculated at approximately 25 years from the most recently reported quarter. Price Target Impediments:Reduction in E&P production and reserves, lack of takeaway capacity from the Rocky Mountains, increasing costs, lower than expected gathering volumes, commodity price risk, decline in throughput on the company's pipelines, weather and economic factors. Companies Mentioned AES ($8.42, Top Pick, Above Average Risk) AYE ($29.84, Outperform, Average Risk) BKH ($24.79, Sector Perform, Average Risk) CNP ($10.78, Outperform, Average Risk) DUK ($16.40, Sector Perform, Average Risk) DYN ($2.96, Outperform, Above Average Risk) EIX ($34.12, Outperform, Average Risk) HTM ($0.79, Outperform, Speculative Risk) IDA ($25.71, Sector Perform, Above Average Risk) LNG ($1.15, Sector Perform, Speculative Risk) MIR ($15.57, Sector Perform, Above Average Risk) NRG ($21.86, Sector Perform, Average Risk) OKE ($28.23, Sector Perform, Average Risk) ORA ($25.14, Outperform, Above Average Risk) PCG ($34.23, Sector Perform, Average Risk) PNM ($8.80, Sector Perform, Above Average Risk) RRI ($5.37, Outperform, Above Average Risk) SE ($17.79, Outperform, Average Risk) SRE ($39.11, Top Pick, Average Risk) SRP ($7.58, Outperform, Average Risk) SUG ($16.00, Sector Perform, Average Risk) TE ($14.25, Sector Perform, Above Average Risk) WMB ($17.41, Outperform, Above Average Risk) Market Conditions and Mild Weather Prompt Price and Estimate RevisionsOctober 24, 2008 9 Required Disclosures This product constitutes a compendium report (covers six or more subject companies). 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