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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC RBC-Aug-6-2010.pdfRATINGS REVISION | COMMENT AUGUST 6, 2010 IDACORP, Inc.(NYSE: IDA) A Good Run, but IDA Has Hit the Ceiling for Now, in Our View Underperform (prev: Sector Perform) Above Average Risk Price:36.10 Shares O/S (MM):47.8 Dividend:1.20 NAVPS:37.00 Debt to Cap:50% Price Target:37.00 Implied All-In Return:6% Market Cap (MM):1,726 Yield:3.3% P/NAVPS:1.0x Priced at market close on May 6, 2010 ET. Downgrading IDA to Underperform based on valuation IDA has had a solid run in the market, up 12% for the year. At this point, however, we do not believe there is room to grow any further in the near term. The dividend yield has fallen to 3.3%, which nears lows for the space, and growth projects have likely already been priced into the stock, in our view. While management has navigated challenging regulatory waters and the weak economy with success, at present we simply believe that utility investors have other options with higher returns and less regulatory risk. We maintain our target price of $37. Q2 results miss expectations IDA reported adjusted EPS of $0.30 vs. consensus of $0.58 and our $0.61 estimate. The headline number of $0.82 included a $25MM net tax benefit associated with a tax accounting methodology change, which we have excluded from EPS. Lower sales volumes stemmed from mild weather with higher precipitation causing a 15% decline in irrigation customer volumes. While the pilot decoupling mechanisms, the LGAR and the FCA, offset this impact to some degree, the net year-over-year impact was nearly ($6MM). This net effect reflects the awkward structure of the decoupling program and suggests gaps in the design relative to other volumetric decoupling mechanisms. Tax issues, two-time occurrences IDA benefitted this quarter from the cumulative effect of a tax accounting method change for repairs deductions for 1999-2009. Additionally, a uniform capitalization tax study under way is likely to create another benefit of similar magnitude in 2010 or 2011. While these impacts do not affect ongoing operations, the cash benefit may offset some of the equity need relating to the Langley Gulch plant. A potential ongoing impact to the net effective tax rate is a possible result from these studies, but what is kept by shareholders and what is kept by customers will not likely be determined until the next rate case in 2012. Adjusting estimates based on quarter IDA maintained its 2010 guidance of $2.65-$2.80, including the $0.52 favorable impact from the tax settlement. We exclude this from our numbers and have adjusted estimates based on the quarter: 2010E $2.33 from $2.67; 2011E and 2012E flat at $2.73 and $2.63, respectively. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). RBC Capital Markets Corp. Lasan Johong (Analyst) (212) 428-6462; lasan.johong@rbccm.com Emily Christy (Associate) (212) 428-6970; emily.christy@rbccm.com Ella Vuernick (Associate) (212) 428-6492; ella.vuernick@rbccm.com FY Dec 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Adj EPS - FD 2.64 2.33 2.73 2.63 Prev.2.67 P/AEPS 13.7x 15.5x 13.2x 13.7x Adj CFPS - FD 7.21 6.68 5.53 5.55 Prev.5.87 5.36 5.39 P/ACFPS 5.0x 5.4x 6.5x 6.5x EBITDA (MM) 330.0 332.0 423.0 442.0 Prev.396.0 430.0 450.0 FCFPS - FD 2.58 1.32 (1.74) 4.56 Prev.(0.19) (1.57) 4.46 P/FCF 14.0x 27.3x NM 7.9x Adj EPS - FD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 0.40A 0.58A 1.16A 0.49A 2010 0.35A 0.30A 1.20E 0.48E Prev.0.61E Adj CFPS - FD 2009 1.74A 1.65A 1.94A 1.87A 2010 1.58A 2.01A 1.90E 1.19E Prev.1.28E 1.87E 1.15E EBITDA (MM) 2009 69.0A 78.0A 116.0A 68.0A 2010 66.0A 54.0A 140.0E 87.0E Prev.95.0E 146.0E 89.0E All values in USD unless otherwise noted. For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see Page 5. 2 Valuation Our price target and our calculated net-asset-value (CNAV) are $37. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 12.3x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 7.32%. The terminal value is calculated approximately 23 years forward. As a pure-play electric utility with a significant hydroelectric generation fleet, IDA operates in a heavily regulated environment. Given recent disappointing regulatory results and a general status quo picture until the next rate case in 2012, we believe that IDA will underperform its peers. Price Target Impediment Volatile hydrology, unfavorable regulatory decisions, poor growth project selections, operational setbacks, changes in credit ratings, environmental regulations, cost overruns with the capex projects, access to capital markets, and weather. Company Description IDACORP is a holding company for the following subsidiaries: Idaho Power Company, IDACORP Financial, and Ida-West Energy. Idaho Power Company (IPC) is a regulated utility serving approximately 472,000 customers in Idaho and western Oregon. Through its regulated operations, IPC generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electric power. Through its 17 hydroelectric power plants, IPC is one of few utilities with a predominant hydro generating base. The company also owns and operates coal and natural gas-fired plants to round out its approximately 3,300MW power portfolio. Additionally, IPC has 4,600 miles of transmission lines and 26,000 miles of distribution lines. IDACORP Financial is an investment company with a focus on affordable housing and historic preservation projects. Ida-West Energy is an independent power project development company with 44.6MW of combined interest in nine hydroelectric power plants in California and Idaho. IDACORP, Inc.August 6, 2010 3 Ticker Symbol IDA Year Quarter EPS Oper. CF EBITDA FCF EFCF Capital Type Amount %Type % of Total Assumptions Rate 06/2010 ($MM) 2009 Q1A $0.40 $1.74 $69 $0.43 $2.00 Equity Capital $1,429.8 50%Equity 5.32% DCF Start Year 2010 2009 Q2A $0.58 $1.65 $78 $0.64 ($1.31)Preferred Stock $0.0 0%Preferred 0.00% DCF Start Month 7 2009 Q3A $1.16 $1.94 $116 $1.67 $0.32 Total Debt $1,418.6 50%Debt 2.00% Current Beta of Company 0.80 2009 Q4A $0.49 $1.87 $68 ($0.15)$0.65 Total $2,848.4 100% WACC 7.32% Static or Variable Beta (S/V)V Total 5 $2.64 $7.21 $330 $2.58 $1.66 Normalized Long-Term Risk-free Rate 5.00% Market Return 12.00%2010 Q1A $0.35 $1.58 $66 $1.05 $0.02 Terminal Value Multiple Terminal Value Multiple Current Equity Discount Rate 10.60%2010 Q2A $0.30 $2.01 $54 $0.98 $0.00 Multiple of FCF 12.3 x Multiple of EFCF 11.4 x Current Cost of Preferred Stock 0.00%2010 Q3E $1.20 $1.90 $140 ($0.00)$1.36 Current Cost of Debt Capital 6.17%2010 Q4E $0.48 $1.19 $87 ($0.71)($1.03)Term. Val. in Months 282 Term. Val. in Months 282 Current WACC 7.32% Total 5 $2.33 $6.68 $332 $1.32 $0.35 Basic Shares Outstanding (MM) 47.9 Category Valuation Category Valuation Diluted Shares Outstanding (MM)48.0 06/2010 Assumed Tax Rate 35%Calc. Ent. Value $3,061.0 Equity FCF Value $1,811.4 Assumed Inflation Rate 3.50%Preferred Stock $0.0 Cash Balance @ Start Minimum Cash Balance Required $25 2011E Total Debt ($1,389.1) of Valuation $29.5 Revolver Overflow Alert Total 5 $2.73 $5.53 $423 ($1.74)($0.86) Equity Value $1,671.9 Equity Value $1,840.9 Current Stock Price of IDA ($/Sh.)$36.10 Shares NAV Average Shares NAV Current Book Value per Share $29.76 Basic $34.91 $36.68 Basic $38.44 Current Price-to-Book Ratio 1.2 x Diluted $34.80 $36.56 Diluted $38.31 Current Market Cap ($MM)$1,728.8 2012E Current Market Ent. Value ($MM)$3,147.4 Total 5 $2.63 $5.55 $442 $4.56 $1.19 Ratios P/NAV P/NAV Ratios P/NAV Current Market Ent. Value Per Sh. $65.72 Basic 1.0 x 1.0 x Basic 0.9 x Current Book Ent. Value ($MM)$2,848.4 Diluted 1.0 x 1.0 x Diluted 0.9 x Current Book Ent. Value Per Sh.$59.48 Ratios P/Book Names of Regions Name Basic 1.2 x Region 1 Idaho Power Company (IPC) Criteria Multiple 2011ERow #Multiple Analysis Ratios Per Share Estimates Capital Structure Cost of Capital Net Asset Value Cash Flow Valuation Ratios Region 4 Other Year P/EP/Oper. CFEV/EBITDA EV/FCF P/EFCF Net Debt per Share N/A $40.39 497 N/A Basic Shares Out N/A 49.2 166 N/A 2009 13.7 x 5.0 x 9.5 x 25.5 x 21.7 x P/E 13.5 x $2.73 174 $37.00 2010E 15.5 x 5.4 x 9.5 x 49.9 x 102.6 x P/CF 6.7 x $5.53 363 $37.00 2011E 13.2 x 6.5 x 7.4 x N/M N/M EV/EBITDA 8.8 x $8.83 190 $37.00 2012E 13.7 x 6.5 x 7.1 x 14.4 x 30.2 x Average $37.00 Sources: Company reports; RBC Capital Markets estimates; Lasan Johong (212) 428-6462 lasan.johong@rbccm.com; Emily Christy (212) 428-6970, emily.christy@rbccm.com; Ella Vuernick (212) 428-6492, ella.vuernick@rbccm.com IDACORP, Inc.August 6, 2010 4 IDA 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2012 SUMMARY FINANCIALS ($ Millions)2008 Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4A 2009 Q1A Q2A Q3E Q4E 2010E 2011E 2012E GENERATION (MWh)14,371.3 3,549.6 4,119.8 4,144.5 3,140.4 14,954.3 3,480.0 3,697.9 3,440.6 3,140.4 13,758.9 13,866.6 15,101.5 INCOME STATEMENT TOTAL NET REVENUE $960.4 $229.1 $243.6 $324.5 $252.6 $1,049.8 $253.0 $241.8 $310.2 $239.0 $1,043.9 $1,125.7 $1,182.2 DOC (Incl. Cost of Fuel and Plant O&M)$416.9 $129.4 $137.4 $137.1 $149.1 $553.1 $163.5 $140.3 $118.7 $122.7 $545.2 $530.7 $587.3 Other Direct Operating Costs $250.2 $37.9 $30.2 $79.1 $34.5 $181.6 $26.9 $36.2 $54.0 $26.7 $143.7 $185.4 $166.1 General & Administrative Expenses $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 DIRECT OPERATING COSTS $667.1 $167.3 $167.6 $216.2 $183.6 $734.7 $190.3 $176.4 $172.6 $149.5 $688.9 $716.1 $753.4 GROSS PROFIT $293.3 $61.8 $76.0 $108.3 $69.0 $315.1 $62.6 $65.3 $137.6 $89.5 $355.0 $409.6 $428.7 Depreciation, Amortization and Expl. Exp.$102.1 $26.0 $26.8 $28.8 $29.0 $110.6 $28.6 $28.7 $29.8 $30.0 $117.1 $121.9 $132.3 Other Operating Costs $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 TOTAL OPERATING COSTS $769.2 $193.2 $194.4 $245.1 $212.6 $845.3 $218.9 $205.1 $202.5 $179.4 $806.0 $838.0 $885.7 OPERATING INCOME $191.2 $35.8 $49.2 $79.4 $40.0 $204.5 $34.0 $36.6 $107.8 $59.5 $237.9 $287.8 $296.4 Non-Operating Expenses ($0.0)($6.6)($0.6)($5.6)$3.2 ($9.6)($2.1)($3.4)($2.8)$2.2 ($6.1)($13.0)($13.5) EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST & TAXES $191.2 $42.4 $49.8 $85.0 $36.8 $214.0 $36.2 $40.0 $110.5 $57.4 $244.1 $300.7 $309.9 Net Interest Expense, Incl. TCP Dividend $73.1 $17.5 $18.2 $18.6 $18.6 $72.8 $19.0 $17.4 $21.8 $21.8 $80.0 $92.9 $104.5 PRE-TAX INCOME $118.1 $25.0 $31.6 $66.4 $18.3 $141.2 $17.2 $22.6 $88.7 $35.5 $164.1 $207.9 $205.4 Income Tax Expense $19.2 $6.8 $5.2 $13.7 ($3.3)$22.4 $1.3 ($16.6)$31.1 $12.4 $28.2 $72.8 $71.9 Minority Interest, Pref. Dividend & Other $0.0 ($0.2)$0.1 $0.2 ($0.1)$0.0 ($0.2)$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 ($0.1)$0.1 $0.1 NET INCOME PRE-X-ITEMS $98.0 $18.9 $27.5 $54.5 $23.5 $124.4 $17.0 $14.2 $57.6 $23.1 $111.9 $135.0 $133.4 Extraordinary Items & Other ($0.4)$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.9 ($25.0)$0.0 $0.0 ($24.1)$0.0 $0.0 NET INCOME $98.4 $18.9 $27.5 $54.5 $23.5 $124.4 $16.1 $39.2 $57.6 $23.1 $136.0 $135.0 $133.4 NET INCOME PRE-X-ITEMS PER SHARE $2.16 $0.40 $0.58 $1.16 $0.49 $2.64 $0.35 $0.30 $1.20 $0.48 $2.33 $2.73 $2.63 Extraordinary Items & Other ($0.01)$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.02 ($0.52)$0.00 $0.00 ($0.50)$0.00 $0.00 NET INCOME PER SHARE $2.17 $0.40 $0.58 $1.16 $0.49 $2.64 $0.34 $0.82 $1.20 $0.48 $2.83 $2.73 $2.63 CASH FLOW STATEMENT Adjustments to Revenue and Income ($7.4)$0.0 $9.9 ($1.2)$4.7 $13.5 $2.4 ($0.4)$0.0 $0.0 $2.0 $0.0 $0.0 Depreciation, Amortization and Expl. Exp.$122.4 $31.2 $24.3 $31.1 $32.1 $118.6 $30.4 $30.6 $29.8 $30.0 $120.8 $121.9 $132.3 Deferred Income Taxes $4.7 $14.7 ($7.1)$7.2 $4.2 $19.0 ($23.1)$3.4 $4.0 $4.0 ($11.7)$16.0 $16.0 Other Operating Cash Flow Items ($55.1)$16.8 $23.0 ($0.2)$24.9 $64.5 $49.9 $23.7 $0.0 $0.0 $73.6 $0.1 $0.1 Changes in Working Capital ($26.4)($37.0)($11.3)$20.2 ($27.5)($55.6)$24.8 ($9.7)$0.0 $0.0 $15.1 $0.0 $0.0 OPERATING CASH FLOW $136.5 $44.6 $66.2 $111.7 $62.0 $284.4 $100.5 $86.8 $91.5 $57.1 $335.8 $273.0 $281.8 Cap. Ex., Acquisitions, Investments ($211.6)($50.4)($59.3)($52.0)($96.0)($257.7)($73.7)($97.7)($63.4)($63.5)($298.3)($257.7)($77.0) Proceeds from Sales $8.8 $9.8 $3.7 $0.7 $1.1 $15.3 $2.9 $19.8 $0.0 $0.0 $22.7 $0.0 $0.0 Other Investing Cash Flow Items $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 ($42.9)($42.9)($85.8)($167.7)($41.3) INVESTING CASH FLOW ($202.8)($40.6)($55.6)($51.3)($94.9)($242.4)($70.8)($77.9)($106.3)($106.3)($361.3)($425.3)($118.3) Net Equity Financing $50.6 $1.1 $2.5 $11.8 $7.6 $22.9 $2.3 $2.2 $5.0 $5.0 $14.5 $100.0 $0.0 Net Debt Capital & Other Financing $73.5 $90.7 ($71.6)($42.8)$67.0 $43.3 ($28.7)($8.6)$80.0 $0.0 $42.7 $109.8 ($102.8) Financing Costs $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Common and Preferred Dividends ($54.2)($14.4)($13.9)($14.2)($14.4)($56.8)($14.5)($14.4)($14.4)($14.4)($57.6)($59.1)($60.7) Other Financing Cash Flow Items ($2.6)($0.9)($0.8)($2.6)($3.0)($7.3)($0.3)($0.0)$0.0 $0.0 ($0.4)$0.0 $0.0 FINANCING CASH FLOW $67.2 $76.6 ($83.8)($47.7)$57.1 $2.1 ($41.2)($20.8)$70.6 ($9.4)($0.8)$150.7 ($163.5) CHANGE IN CASH $0.9 $80.3 ($73.1)$12.9 $24.1 $44.2 ($11.6)($11.9)$55.8 ($58.6)($26.3)($1.7)($0.0) OP. CF BEFORE W/C PER SHARE $3.59 $1.74 $1.65 $1.94 $1.87 $7.21 $1.58 $2.01 $1.90 $1.19 $6.68 $5.53 $5.55 BALANCE SHEET Cash and Equivalents $8.8 $89.1 $16.0 $28.9 $53.0 $53.0 $41.4 $29.5 $85.3 $26.7 $26.7 $25.0 $25.0 Accounts Receivables $91.6 $84.5 $83.9 $94.7 $86.9 $86.9 $82.4 $89.3 $89.3 $89.3 $89.3 $89.3 $89.3 Inventory, Fuels and Materials $67.0 $66.7 $74.6 $72.9 $73.7 $73.7 $72.5 $76.6 $76.6 $76.6 $76.6 $76.6 $76.6 Other Current Assets $297.5 $264.6 $274.6 $277.1 $292.1 $292.1 $285.5 $297.1 $297.1 $297.1 $297.1 $297.1 $297.1 TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS $464.8 $505.0 $449.1 $473.7 $505.7 $505.7 $481.9 $492.5 $548.3 $489.7 $489.7 $488.0 $488.0 TOTAL PP&E $2,758.2 $2,768.8 $2,794.5 $2,847.1 $2,917.0 $2,917.0 $2,961.0 $3,016.2 $3,092.7 $3,169.1 $3,169.1 $3,472.5 $3,458.5 Other Long-term Assets $799.8 $795.9 $799.1 $796.5 $816.0 $816.0 $779.5 $772.1 $772.1 $772.1 $772.1 $772.1 $772.1 TOTAL ASSETS $4,022.8 $4,069.7 $4,042.7 $4,117.3 $4,238.7 $4,238.7 $4,222.4 $4,280.8 $4,413.1 $4,430.8 $4,430.8 $4,732.6 $4,718.6 Accounts Payables $248.0 $203.7 $145.1 $124.9 $137.6 $137.6 $79.1 $95.6 $95.6 $95.6 $95.6 $95.6 $95.6 Short-term Debt & Current Portions $86.5 $81.5 $83.5 $84.1 $9.3 $9.3 $132.0 $129.8 $230.8 $260.8 $260.8 $162.6 $163.9 Other Current Liabilities $61.1 $75.6 $62.0 $86.0 $71.3 $71.3 $117.1 $113.6 $113.6 $113.6 $113.6 $113.6 $113.6 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES $395.7 $360.8 $290.6 $295.0 $218.2 $218.2 $328.2 $339.0 $439.9 $469.9 $469.9 $371.8 $373.0 Long-term Debt and Other Obligations $1,183.5 $1,279.5 $1,283.6 $1,282.9 $1,409.7 $1,409.7 $1,290.2 $1,288.8 $1,279.5 $1,249.5 $1,249.5 $1,457.4 $1,353.4 Deferred Income Taxes $515.7 $511.3 $513.0 $529.0 $574.5 $574.5 $566.0 $559.9 $563.9 $567.9 $567.9 $583.9 $599.9 Other Long-term Liabilities $625.6 $605.4 $625.0 $625.7 $634.8 $634.8 $631.0 $659.3 $647.6 $647.6 $647.6 $647.6 $647.6 TOTAL LONG-TERM LIABILITIES $2,324.7 $2,396.2 $2,421.6 $2,437.6 $2,619.0 $2,619.0 $2,487.3 $2,508.0 $2,491.0 $2,465.0 $2,465.0 $2,688.9 $2,600.9 Long-term Financings $0.0 $4.0 $4.1 $4.3 $4.2 $4.2 $4.0 $4.0 $4.1 $4.1 $4.1 $4.2 $4.3 TOTAL LIABILITIES $2,720.4 $2,761.0 $2,716.3 $2,736.8 $2,841.4 $2,841.4 $2,819.5 $2,851.0 $2,935.0 $2,939.0 $2,939.0 $3,064.9 $2,978.2 Equity and Additional Paid-in Capital $729.6 $731.8 $734.9 $747.4 $756.5 $756.5 $759.8 $762.9 $767.9 $772.9 $772.9 $872.9 $872.9 Retained Earnings $581.6 $586.4 $599.7 $640.0 $649.2 $649.2 $650.8 $675.6 $718.9 $727.6 $727.6 $803.5 $876.2 Other Stockholders' Equity ($8.7)($9.5)($8.2)($7.0)($8.3)($8.3)($7.7)($8.7)($8.7)($8.7)($8.7)($8.7)($8.7) TOTAL STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY $1,302.4 $1,308.7 $1,326.4 $1,380.5 $1,397.3 $1,397.3 $1,402.9 $1,429.8 $1,478.1 $1,491.8 $1,491.8 $1,667.7 $1,740.4 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY $4,022.8 $4,069.7 $4,042.7 $4,117.3 $4,238.7 $4,238.7 $4,222.4 $4,280.8 $4,413.1 $4,430.8 $4,430.8 $4,732.6 $4,718.6 Sources: Company reports; RBC Capital Markets estimates. Lasan Johong - (212) 428-6462; lasan.johong@rbccm.com IDACORP, Inc.August 6, 2010 5 Required Disclosures Conflicts Disclosures The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates. A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. during the past 12 months. During this time, a member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates provided non-securities services to IDACORP, Inc. RBC Capital Markets is currently providing IDACORP, Inc. with non-securities services. RBC Capital Markets has provided IDACORP, Inc. with non-securities services in the past 12 months. The author is employed by RBC Capital Markets Corp., a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in New York, USA. Explanation of RBC Capital Markets Equity Rating System An analyst's 'sector' is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst's view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst's sector average. Ratings Top Pick (TP):Represents best in Outperform category; analyst's best ideas; expected to significantly outperform the sector over 12 months; provides best risk-reward ratio; approximately 10% of analyst's recommendations. Outperform (O):Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months. Sector Perform (SP):Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months. Underperform (U):Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months. Risk Qualifiers (any of the following criteria may be present): Average Risk (Avg):Volatility and risk expected to be comparable to sector; average revenue and earnings predictability; no significant cash flow/financing concerns over coming 12-24 months; fairly liquid. Above Average Risk (AA):Volatility and risk expected to be above sector; below average revenue and earnings predictability; may not be suitable for a significant class of individual equity investors; may have negative cash flow; low market cap or float. Speculative (Spec):Risk consistent with venture capital; low public float; potential balance sheet concerns; risk of being delisted. Distribution of Ratings For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' ratings of Top Pick/Outperform, Sector Perform and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described above). Distribution of Ratings RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research Investment Banking Serv./Past 12 Mos. Rating Count Percent Count Percent BUY[TP/O] 635 50.20 181 28.50 HOLD[SP] 575 45.50 123 21.39 SELL[U] 55 4.30 9 16.36 IDACORP, Inc.August 6, 2010 6 References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may include one or more recommended lists or model portfolios maintained by a business unit of the Wealth Management Division of RBC Capital Markets Corporation. These Recommended Lists include the Prime Opportunity List (RL 3), a former list called the Private Client Prime Portfolio (RL 4), the Prime Income List (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), and the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8). 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A Short-Term Trade Idea reflects the research analyst's directional view regarding the price of the subject company's publicly-traded common equity in the coming days or weeks, based on market and trading events. A Short-Term Trade Idea may differ from the price targets and recommendations in our published research reports reflecting the research analyst's views of the longer-term (one year) prospects of the subject company, as a result of the differing time horizons, methodologies and/or other factors. Thus, it is possible that a subject company's common equity that is considered a long-term 'sector perform' or even an 'underperform' might be a short-term buying opportunity as a result of temporary selling pressure in the market; conversely, a subject company's common equity rated a long-term 'outperform' could be considered susceptible to a short-term downward price correction. Short-Term Trade Ideas are not ratings, nor are they part of any ratings system, and the Firm generally does not intend, nor undertakes any obligation, to maintain or update Short-Term Trade Ideas. Securities and Short-Term Trade Ideas discussed in SPARC may not be suitable for all investors and have not been tailored to individual investor circumstances and objectives, and investors should make their own independent decisions regarding any securities or strategies discussed herein. Analyst Certification All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report. IDACORP, Inc.August 6, 2010 7 Disclaimer RBC Capital Markets is the business name used by certain subsidiaries of Royal Bank of Canada, including RBC Dominion Securities Inc., RBC Capital Markets Corporation, Royal Bank of Canada Europe Limited and Royal Bank of Canada - Sydney Branch. The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Capital Markets from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Capital Markets, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Capital Markets' judgement as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. 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Copyright © RBC Capital Markets Corporation 2010 - Member SIPC Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2010 - Member CIPF Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada Europe Limited 2010 Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2010 All rights reserved IDACORP, Inc.August 6, 2010