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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC Ladenburg-8-7-2009.pdfDisclosures and Analyst Certifications can be found in Appendix A. NEW YORK, NY, MELVILLE, NY, PRINCETON, NJ LOS ANGELES, CA MIAMI, FL LINCOLNSHIRE, IL BOCA RATON, FL 520 Madison Avenue y New York, New York 10022 y Telephone: 212-409-2000 800-LAD-THAL Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC IIDDAACCOORRPP ((IIDDAA)) 2Q09 Financial Results – Lowering to NEUTRAL from BUY Based on Valuation Highlights • We are lowering our rating to NEUTRAL from BUY on IDA shares. Our price target of $28 per share is based on a 2009/2010 P/E of 10.9x/10.4x EPS of $2.56/$2.69. • While we continue to view IDA as a fundamentally sound small-cap utility with meaningful potential rate base growth and long-term earnings power, as well as, solid cash flow and credit profile, IDA shares are now trading just below our price target objective and we now rate IDA shares NEUTRAL. • On August 6, 2009, IDA reported 2Q09 net income of $27.5m or $0.58 per share compared to a net income of $17.5m or $0.39 per share in 2Q08. Idaho Power Company reported 2Q09 net income of $26.3m compared to $17.7m in 2Q08. IDACORP Financial Services (IFS) contributed $188k in 2Q09 compared to $701k in 2Q08. Results include: implementation of new base rates in Idaho (Feb 2009) and improved hydro conditions (+$11.9m), reallocation of PCA related costs (+$6.5m), deferral of future recovery of power supply costs from 2007 (+$6.4m), partially offset by decreased retail sales volumes (-8%) due to mild weather. • The company revised certain components of its 2009 operating/financial assumptions. Revisions include: IPC hydroelectric generation 7.5m-8.5m MWh (previously 6.5m-8.5m) due to above normal precipitation in June and above normal storage levels at Brownlee, and Idaho Power and IDACORP effective tax rates of 26%-31% (previously 31%-35%) and 19%- 24% (previously 24%-28%), respectively. • The Company expects utility capital expenditures to be approximately $730-$750m in 2009-2011(previously $780-$800m) which excludes development expense of approximately $50m for new baseload resource in 2009 contingent on the CPCN outcome expected in 3Q09. The company believes it can finance its 2009 capital expenditures with internally generated funds and its DRIP program and does not need to access the capital markets in the near-term. Longer-term infrastructure- related projects would likely be financed by a combination of internally generated cash flow and external debt/equity financing. • IDA recently filed for Oregon rate relief (+$7.3m) and may file for Idaho rate relief by the end of this month. COMPANY & MARKET DATA Price $27.79 Price Target, Excl Dividends (YE09) $28.00 52 - Week Range $20.91-$33.89 Mkt. Capitalization (mill) $1,306 Enterprise Value (mill) $2,501 FD Shares Outstanding (mill) 47 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 366 Book Value per Share (1Q09A) $28.03 Dividend (FY09E) / Yield $1.20 4.3% FY2007A FY2008A FY2009E Revenue (mill) $879 $992 $1,059 1Q EPS $0.56 $0.48 $0.40 2Q EPS $0.42 $0.35 $0.58 3Q EPS $0.62 $1.14 4Q EPS $0.23 $0.26 EPS $1.86 $2.22 $2.56 Prior EPS Consensus EPS $2.35 P/E 14.9x 12.5x 10.9x EV/EBITDA 9.8x 8.2x 7.7x P/FCF -57.3x -57.3x -52.4x ESTIMATES Volume in Millions 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 50-day average 200-day average Chart data: Bloomberg Brian J. Russo, CFA 646-432-6312 brusso@ladenburg.com James Berry 212-409-2685 jberry@ladenburg.com Power and Utilities Sector Company Update August 7, 2009 NEUTRAL Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 2 - APPENDIX A: IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Brian Russo, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. COMPANY BACKGROUND Headquartered in Boise, Idaho, IDACORP, Inc., (IDA) is a holding company formed in 1998 that is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of energy. IDA serves over 466,000 retail customers across its 24,000sq mile service territory in both Idaho and Oregon, and owns approximately 3,267MW of generating capacity. IDA’s principal operating subsidiary is Idaho Power Company (IPC). The company’s unregulated utilities include IDACORP Financial (IFS) that invests in affordable housing and real estate and Ida-West Energy Company (Ida-West) that operates small hydroelectric generation projects. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value equities utilizing a multi-faceted approach which includes; sum-of-the-parts, net asset value, discounted cash flow, leading P/E, EV/EBITDA. RISKS On top of normal economic and market risk factors that impact most all equities, Idacorp (IDA) is uniquely at risk to: Because of IPC’s predominantly hydroelectric generating base and heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation, which can be adversely affected by weather, reduced hydroelectric generation can reduce revenues and increase costs. Continuing declines in stream flows and over-appropriation of water in Idaho may reduce hydroelectric generation and revenues and increase costs. Load growth in IPC’s service territory due to customer growth and demand for energy exposes it to greater market and operational risk as increased reliance on purchased power to meet load requirements could increase costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IPC’s reliance on coal and natural gas to fuel its generating facilities exposes it to risk of increased market prices, which could increase costs and reduced earnings. Changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce power sales and revenues. Climate change could affect customer demand and hydroelectric generation and lead to restrictions on generation resources. If Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC), the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) grant less rate recovery in rate case filings than IPC needs to cover the costs of providing services, financial results could be adversely impacted and economic expansion may be limited. Conditions that may be imposed in connection with hydroelectric license renewals may require large capital expenditures and reduce earnings and cash flows. The cost of complying with environmental regulations related to air quality, water quality, natural resources and health and safety can increase capital expenditures and operating costs and reduce earnings and cash flows. IDACORP and its subsidiaries are subject to costs and other effects of legal and regulatory proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, including those that have arisen out of the western energy situation. IPC’s business is subject to substantial governmental regulation and may be adversely affected by increased costs resulting from, or liability under, existing or future regulations or requirements. Increased capital expenditures can significantly affect liquidity. As a holding company, IDACORP does not have its own operating income and must rely on the upstream cash flows from its subsidiaries to pay dividends and make debt payments. A downgrade in IDA’s credit ratings could negatively affect the company’s ability to access capital and increase their cost of borrowing. Adverse results of income tax audits could reduce earnings and cash flows. Employee workforce factors, including the loss or retirement of key personnel, availability of qualified personnel and an aging workforce, could increase costs and reduce earnings. Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 3 - STOCK RATING DEFINITIONS Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed 15% over the next twelve months. Neutral: The stock’s return is expected to be plus or minus 15% over the next twelve months. Sell: The stock’s return is expected to be negative 15% or more over the next twelve months. Investment Ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in risk, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected returns may fall outside of these ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review. RATINGS DISPERSION AND BANKING RELATIONSHIPS (as of 08/01/09) Buy 69% (7% are banking clients) Neutral 29% (0% are banking clients) Sell 2% (0% are banking clients) INVESTMENT RATING AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY Brian Russo 646.432.6312 IDACORP (IDA) Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Page - 4 - COMPANY SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES: Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. does not make a market in subject company. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. has neither had an investment banking relationship with, nor received investment banking fees from the subject company in the past 12 months. Neither the Analyst, nor members of the Analyst’s household own any securities issued by the subject Company. GENERAL DISCLAIMERS Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. to be reliable. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of Ladenburg Thalmann as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. 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Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses. The information and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Member: NYSE, NYSE Amex, FINRA, all other principal exchanges and SIPC Additional Information Available Upon Request © 2009 - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.