COC Keybanc-Feb-23-2010.pdf

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February 22, 2010 Close:$32.70
4Q09 KBCM EPS Estimate:$0.51 (Consensus: $0.33)
2009 KBCM EPS Estimate:$2.60 (Consensus: $2.46)
2010 KBCM EPS Estimate:$2.75 (Consensus: $2.57)
4Q09 and FY09 Actual Results (vs. 4Q08 and FY08):
•4Q09 operating EPS of $0.49 vs. $0.26; GAAP EPS of $0.49 vs. $0.16.
•Results were in line with our estimate of $0.51 and meaningfully above consensus of $0.33 primarily due to new rates and lower
taxes.
Guidance:
The Company initiated 2010 earnings guidance in the range of $2.65-$2.80 per share. We are the only Street estimate within the
guidance range. IDA has not issued guidance in years, and we expect doing so will improve investor confidence.
Highlights:
•New rates and lower taxes drove improvement, offset by lower sales and transmission revenue declines.
•Sales were down 4% on mild weather and the economy.
•IDA expects 2010 hydro conditions to allow the generation of 6.5 million-8.5 million MWh vs. the prior year production of 8.1
million MWh. However, we note that IDA now has down side protection by way of its Idaho settlement.
•2010 capex is forecast at $355 million-$365 million, vs. the 2009 level of $273 million.
Initial Take:We expect a positive response to 2010 earnings guidance above consensus. IDA has also not issued guidance in
years, and we believe investors will find comfort in management endorsing a range of estimates.
4:30 PM EST Conference Call #: [phone]; Passcode: Idaho
We will be focused on:
•Economic outlook and 2010 earnings drivers
•Financing needs
•Update on capital expenditure program
•Regulatory update
February 23, 2010 KeyBanc
Quick Alert Capital Markets
IDACORP, Inc. (BUY)
IDA - Quick Alert: 4Q09 Quarter Strong on Rates, Improved Water, Lower Taxes
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.,
Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
Paul T. Ridzon:[phone] —[e-mail]
Timothy Yee:[phone] —[e-mail]
FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND CERTIFICATIONS, PLEASE REFER TO PAGES 2 - 3 OF THIS NOTE.
Investors should assume that we are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the company described in this report.
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KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.Disclosures and Certifications
IDACORP, Inc. - IDA
IDACORP, Inc. is an investment banking client of ours.
We have received compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. during the past 12 months
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. within the next
three months.
During the past 12 months, IDACORP, Inc. has been a client of the firm or its affiliates for non-securities related services.
Reg A/C Certification
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this research report certifies that:(1) all the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2)
no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or
views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this research report.
Three-Year Rating and Price Target History
Rating Disclosures
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide and by Sector
KeyBanc Capital Markets
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [BUY]165 44.80 36 21.82
HOLD [HOLD]197 53.50 50 25.38
SELL [UND]6 1.60 1 16.67
ENERGY
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [BUY]21 36.20 10 47.62
HOLD [HOLD]37 63.80 24 64.86
SELL [UND]0 0.00 0 0.00
Quick AlertFebruary 23, 2010
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Rating System
BUY - The security is expected to outperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should consider adding the security
to their holdings opportunistically, subject to their overall diversification requirements.
HOLD - The security is expected to perform in line with general market indices over the next six to 12 months; no buy or sell action is
recommended at this time.
UNDERWEIGHT - The security is expected to underperform the market over the next six to 12 months; investors should reduce their
holdings opportunistically.
The information contained in this report is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its
accuracy is not guaranteed. The opinions expressed reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to
change without notice. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Our company
policy prohibits research analysts and members of their families from owning securities of any company followed by that analyst,
unless otherwise disclosed. Our officers, directors, shareholders and other employees, and members of their families may have
positions in these securities and may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the
publication of this report. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the opinions expressed herein. One or more of
our employees, other than the research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report, may be a member of the Board of
Directors of any company referred to in this report. The research analyst responsible for the preparation of this report is compensated,
based in part, on investment banking revenue which may include revenue derived from the Firm's performance of investment banking
services for companies referred to in this report, although such compensation is not based upon specific investment banking services
transactions for these or any other companies. In accordance with industry practices, our analysts are prohibited from soliciting
investment banking business for our Firm.
Copyright 2010, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. All rights reserved.
Securities, mutual funds and other investment products are:
•Not Insured by the FDIC.
•Not deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., KeyBank, N.A. or any of
their affiliates.
•Subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Quick AlertFebruary 23, 2010