Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDA_RBC_Note_2008_11_10_3Q08.pdfCOMPANY UPDATE | COMMENT NOVEMBER 11, 2008 IDACORP, Inc.(NYSE: IDA) Favorable hydro conditions = strong 3Q for IDA Sector Perform Above Average Risk Price:27.54 Shares O/S (MM):44.1 Dividend:1.20 Price Target:33.00 Implied All-In Return:24% Market Cap (MM):1,215 Yield:4.4% IDA beats estimates with $1.14 EPS for 3Q08 Maintaining CNAV of $38, target price of $33 and SP rating. Rate increase, strong hydrology offsets lower demand Base rate and power cost adjustment increases added $$34.8MM to revenues in 3Q08. Additionally, fuel costs were lower due to higher hydroelectric generation and normal weather. For 3Q08 IDA generated 1,847MWh of hydroelectric power, compared to only 1,499MWh in 3Q07. Economic weakness spilling into IDA results Customer growth has abated slightly at ~1% compared to previous growth of 2-3%. Unemployment in ID has risen for the past 8 months, closing at 5.4% in October compared to 2.7% in October 2007. Additionally, in October on of IPC's largest industrial customers, Micron Technology, Inc., announced that it was reducing its workforce by 15% in Boise. While temporarily slowed customer growth is not unique to IDA compared to its peers, the fact that IPC is asking the commission to raise utility rates at this time is a concern. While IPC does not currently earn its approved ROE and is in need of regulatory relief, regulators are in a difficult position given the gloomy economic conditions in Idaho. Regulatory progress being made, more issues pending After working with regulators and interested parties in various workshops, a proposed settlement on changes to the PCA mechanism is now awaiting final approval under which purchased power and fuel expenses that exceed or fall below forecasted estimates will now be shared 95% to customers, 5% to investors, compared to the previous 90/10 split. The proposed change reflects confidence in IDA's risk management policies and should further mitigate the volatility of hydrology in IDA. Adjusting estimates based on 3Q08 results 2008E to $2.21 form $1.71, 2009E to $2.02 from $2.00, introducing 2010E of $2.09. Conclusion: Hydrology still sets the pace for IDA, but regulatory-induced stability is improving Year to year much of IDA's earnings strength is still dictated by river flows. Although the proposed 95/5 split, if approved, would be an improvement, we expect directionality of the stock to remain tied to river flow statistics to a certain degree. Since these statistics change frequently, it is difficult for IDA to separate itself from the pack and build forward momentum at this time. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). RBC Capital Markets Corp. Lasan Johong (Analyst) (212) 428-6462; lasan.johong@rbccm.com Emily Christy (Associate) (212) 428-6970; emily.christy@rbccm.com Ella Vuernick (Associate) (212) 428-6492; ella.vuernick@rbccm.com FY Dec 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E Adj EPS - FD 1.86 2.21 2.02 2.09 Prev.1.71 2.00 P/AEPS 14.8x 12.5x 13.6x 13.2x Adj CFPS - FD 1.77 4.21 4.62 4.75 Prev.4.46 4.81 P/ACFPS 15.6x 6.5x 6.0x 5.8x EBITDA/Share - FD 5.92 6.95 7.82 8.27 Prev.6.34 7.85 FCFPS - FD (2.63) (0.46) (1.10) (0.33) Prev.(1.17) (0.90) P/FCF NM NM NM NM Adj EPS - FD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 0.56A 0.42A 0.65A 0.23A 2008 0.48A 0.35A 1.14A 0.24E Prev.0.65E 0.23E Adj CFPS - FD 2007 0.98A 0.30A 0.50A 0.00A 2008 1.02A 1.08A 1.19A 0.94E Prev.1.40E 0.97E EBITDA/Share - FD 2007 1.60A 1.41A 1.71A 1.21A 2008 1.57A 1.46A 2.47A 1.44E Prev.1.92E 1.39E All values in USD unless otherwise noted. For Required Disclosures, please see Page 5. 2 Details Recent Events: IPC secures $120MM in debt In July IPC issued $120MM in Secured 1st Mortgage Bonds at a rate of 6.025%. The bonds are due in July, 2018. Proceeds were used to pay down short-term debt. As of November 5th, IDA has $621MM remaining on its two shelf registration statements for the issuance of debt and preferred or common stock. 2008 Rate Case remains pending In June IDA filed for a $67MM increase to its annual revenue requirement with an ROE of 11.25%. In October the IPUC Staff filed its response and countered with a $9.7MM increase and an ROE of 10.25%. IPC plans to file its rebuttal testimony on December 3rd. Given the difficult economic conditions, this may be an uphill battle for IPC, but we would expect at least a nominal increase in rates. We have not included any benefit from this proceeding in our modeling at present. Valuation Our target price and our calculated net-asset-value (CNAV) is $38. We determine our CNAV based on a full discounted cash flow model using an average of Free Cash Flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. We apply a multistage growth rate with a terminal multiple of 11.2x based on a dynamic WACC with an initial rate of 7.98%. The terminal value is calculated approximately 25 years forward. As a pure-play electric utility with a significant hydroelectric generation fleet, IDA operates in a heavily regulated environment. Considering the risk management policies of IDA, the Idaho regulatory structure, solid operations and the above-average population growth for the service territory, the company continues to perform as expected. Price Target Impediment Investment risk/Price target impediment:Volatile hydrology, unfavorable regulatory decisions, poor growth project selections, operational setbacks, changes in credit ratings, environmental regulations, cost overruns with the capex projects, access to capital markets, and weather. Company Description IDACORP is a holding company for the following subsidiaries: Idaho Power Company, IDACORP Financial, and Ida-West Energy. Idaho Power Company (IPC) is a regulated utility serving approximately 472,000 customers in Idaho and western Oregon. Through its regulated operations, IPC generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electric power. Through its 17 hydroelectric power plants, IPC is one of few utilities with a predominant hydro generating base. The company also owns and operates coal and natural gas-fired plants to round out its approximately 3,300MW power portfolio. Additionally, IPC has 4,600 miles of transmission lines and 26,000 miles of distribution lines. IDACORP Financial is an investment company with a focus on affordable housing and historic preservation projects. Ida-West Energy is an independent power project development company with 44.6MW of combined interest in nine hydroelectric power plants in California and Idaho. IDACORP, Inc.November 11, 2008 3 Ticker Symbol IDA Year Quarter EPS Oper.CF EBITDA FCF EFCF Capital Type Amount %Type %of Total Assumptions Rate 09/2008 ($MM) 2007 1 $0.56 $0.98 $1.60 ($0.08)$0.14 Equity Capital $1,270.7 50%Equity 5.98% DCF Start Year 2008 2007 2 $0.42 $0.30 $1.41 ($0.80)$3.48 Preferred Stock $0.0 0%Preferred 0.00% DCF Start Month 10 2007 3 $0.65 $0.50 $1.71 ($0.95)($3.22)Total Debt $1,280.8 50%Debt 2.01% Current Betaof Company 1.00 2007 4 $0.23 $0.00 $1.21 ($0.80)$0.06 Total $2,551.5 100%WACC 7.98% Static or Variable Beta (S/V)V Total 5 $1.86 $1.77 $5.92 ($2.63)$0.41 Normalized Long-Term Risk-free Rate 5.00% Market Return 12.00%2008 1 $0.48 $1.02 $1.57 ($0.63)$0.24 Terminal Value Multiple Terminal Value Multiple Current Equity Discount Rate 12.00%2008 2 $0.35 $1.08 $1.46 ($0.02)$0.36 Multiple of FCF 11.1 x Multiple ofEFCF 10.3 x Current Cost ofPreferred Stock 0.00%2008 3 $1.14 $1.19 $2.47 $0.64 $3.85 Current Cost ofDebt Capital 6.56%2008E 4 $0.24 $0.94 $1.44 ($0.46)($0.85)Term.Val.in Months 306 Term.Val.in Months 306 Current WACC 7.98%Total 5 $2.21 $4.21 $6.95 ($0.46)$3.60 Basic Shares Outstanding (MM)45.0 Category Valuation Category Valuation Diluted Shares Outstanding (MM)45.2 09/2008 Assumed Tax Rate 39%Calc.Ent.Value $2,935.0 Equity FCF Value $1,644.7 Assumed Inflation Rate 3.50%Preferred Stock $0.0 Cash Balance @ Start Minimum Cash Balance Required $25 2009E Total Debt ($1,280.8)ofValuation $57.7 RevolverOverflow Alert Total 5 $2.02 $4.62 $7.82 ($1.10)($1.04)Equity Value $1,654.2 EquityValue $1,702.5 Current Stock Price of IDA ($/Sh.)$27.54 Shares NAV Average Shares NAV Current Book Value per Share $28.12 Basic $36.76 $37.30 Basic $37.83 Current Price-to-Book Ratio 1.0 x Diluted $36.60 $37.14 Diluted $37.67 Current MarketCap ($MM)$1,239.2 2010E Current MarketEnt.Value ($MM)$2,520.1 Total 5 $2.09 $4.75 $8.27 ($0.33)$1.19 Ratios P/NAV P/NAV Ratios P/NAV Current MarketEnt.Value Per Sh.$56.00 Basic 0.7 x 0.7 x Basic 0.7 x Current Book Ent.Value ($MM)$2,551.5 Diluted 0.8 x 0.7 x Diluted 0.7 x Current Book Ent.Value Per Sh.$56.70 Ratios P/Book Namesof Regions Name Basic 1.0 x Region 1 Idaho Power Company (IPC) Region 2 Idacorp Financial Services(IFS)Criteria Multiple 2009Eow #Multiple Analysis Region 3 Idacorp Energy (IE)Ratios Region 4 Other Year P/EP/Oper.CFEV/EBITDA EV/FCF P/EFCF Net Debt per Share N/A $40.08 497 N/A Basic Shares Out N/A 45.0 166 N/A 2007 14.8 x 15.5 x 9.5 x N/M 67.1 x P/E 16.3 x $2.02 174 $33.00 2008E 12.4 x 6.5 x 8.1 x N/M 7.6 x P/CF 7.1 x $4.62 363 $33.00 2009E 13.6 x 6.0 x 7.2 x N/M N/M EV/EBITDA 9.3 x $7.82 198 $33.00 2010E 13.2 x 5.8 x 6.8 x N/M 23.0 x Average $33.00 Sources:Company reports;RBC Capital Markets estimates;Lasan Johong (212)428-6462lasan.johong@rbccm.com;Emily Christy (212)428-6970,emily.christy@rbccm.com;Ella Vuernick (212)428-6492,ella.vuernick@rbccm.com Per Share Estimates Capital Structure Cost of Capital Net AssetValue Cash Flow Valuation IDACORP, Inc.November 11, 2008 4 IDA 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2010 SUMMARY FINANCIALS ($ Millions)Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4A 2007 Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4E 2008E 2009E 2010E GENERATION (MWh)3,593.0 3,000.0 3,632.0 3,323.0 13,548.0 3,642.0 3,493.3 3,513.1 3,311.7 13,960.0 13,781.4 13,781.4 INCOME STATEMENT TOTAL NET REVENUE $206.7 $213.8 $261.5 $197.4 $879.4 $213.4 $230.2 $299.7 $275.9 $1,019.2 $1,161.9 $1,289.4 DOC (Incl. Cost of Fuel and Plant O&M)$82.0 $58.5 $74.9 $96.9 $312.3 $95.9 $103.8 $109.3 $147.2 $456.2 $500.1 $568.8 Other Direct Operating Costs $55.7 $85.1 $114.8 $51.5 $307.1 $50.1 $54.9 $84.3 $66.0 $255.4 $302.5 $338.3 General & Administrative Expenses $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 DIRECT OPERATING COSTS $137.7 $143.6 $189.7 $148.4 $619.4 $146.0 $158.7 $193.6 $213.2 $711.5 $802.7 $907.1 GROSS PROFIT $69.0 $70.2 $71.8 $49.1 $260.0 $67.4 $71.5 $106.1 $62.6 $307.7 $359.3 $382.2 Depreciation, Amortization and Expl. Exp.$25.3 $25.6 $26.0 $26.2 $103.1 $25.8 $26.6 $25.7 $27.6 $105.7 $109.3 $112.9 Other Operating Costs $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 TOTAL OPERATING COSTS $163.0 $169.2 $215.7 $174.6 $722.5 $171.8 $185.3 $219.3 $240.9 $817.3 $911.9 $1,020.1 OPERATING INCOME $43.7 $44.6 $45.8 $22.9 $156.9 $41.7 $44.9 $80.4 $35.0 $202.0 $250.0 $269.3 Non-Operating Expenses ($0.9)($1.6)($2.2)($2.6)($7.3)($0.0)($1.0)($4.5)($4.5)($10.0)($11.1)($8.9) EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST & TAXES $44.5 $46.2 $48.0 $25.5 $164.2 $41.7 $45.9 $84.9 $39.5 $212.0 $261.1 $278.2 Net Interest Expense, Incl. TCP Dividend $15.2 $15.4 $16.6 $16.2 $63.3 $17.5 $17.1 $18.5 $23.5 $76.5 $94.6 $105.9 PRE-TAX INCOME $29.4 $30.8 $31.4 $9.3 $100.8 $24.2 $28.8 $66.3 $16.0 $135.4 $166.5 $172.4 Income Tax Expense $4.9 $3.4 $4.6 $0.8 $13.7 $5.6 $6.9 $15.8 $3.4 $31.7 $58.4 $60.4 Minority Interest, Pref. Dividend & Other $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 NET INCOME PRE-X-ITEMS $24.6 $18.5 $28.9 $10.3 $82.3 $21.7 $15.7 $51.7 $10.7 $99.8 $91.3 $94.5 Extraordinary Items & Other $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 ($1.8)$0.0 $0.0 ($1.8)$0.0 $0.0 NET INCOME $24.6 $18.5 $28.9 $10.3 $82.3 $21.7 $17.5 $51.7 $10.7 $101.6 $91.3 $94.5 NET INCOME PRE-X-ITEMS PER SHARE $0.56 $0.42 $0.65 $0.23 $1.86 $0.48 $0.35 $1.14 $0.24 $2.21 $2.02 $2.09 Extraordinary Items & Other $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ($0.04)$0.00 $0.00 ($0.04)$0.00 $0.00 NET INCOME PER SHARE $0.56 $0.42 $0.65 $0.23 $1.86 $0.48 $0.39 $1.14 $0.24 $2.25 $2.02 $2.09 CASH FLOW STATEMENT Adjustments to Revenue and Income $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 ($6.3)($6.3)$0.0 $0.0 ($3.8)$0.0 ($3.8)$0.0 $0.0 Depreciation, Amortization and Expl. Exp.$30.3 $30.1 $30.9 $29.1 $120.4 $30.8 $32.5 $29.9 $27.6 $120.8 $109.3 $112.9 Deferred Income Taxes $7.6 $11.2 $10.5 ($18.2)$11.0 $12.6 $4.2 ($0.7)$9.0 $25.1 $36.0 $36.0 Other Operating Cash Flow Items ($19.7)($46.6)($47.9)($14.7)($129.0)($19.4)($5.7)($23.6)($5.0)($53.7)($28.0)($28.7) Changes in Working Capital ($21.8)$7.3 ($16.6)$33.2 $2.1 ($24.8)($15.9)$8.3 $0.0 ($32.4)$0.0 $0.0 OPERATING CASH FLOW $21.0 $20.4 $5.7 $33.4 $80.6 $20.9 $32.6 $61.9 $42.3 $157.7 $208.6 $214.7 Cap. Ex., Acquisitions, Investments ($48.1)($74.7)($83.2)($88.3)($294.2)($65.1)($57.2)($51.9)($77.6)($251.8)($310.3)($288.0) Proceeds from Sales $7.3 $2.7 $17.2 ($0.0)$27.1 $0.0 $6.5 $2.2 $0.0 $8.7 $0.0 $0.0 Other Investing Cash Flow Items $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 ($3.1)($3.1)($5.6)($6.0) INVESTING CASH FLOW ($40.8)($72.0)($66.1)($88.3)($267.1)($65.1)($50.7)($49.7)($80.7)($246.2)($315.9)($294.0) Net Equity Financing $2.2 $10.2 $22.4 $2.3 $37.2 $2.2 $1.8 $8.2 $0.0 $12.2 $0.0 $0.0 Net Debt Capital & Other Financing $24.7 $205.5 ($84.4)$56.6 $202.4 $55.3 $31.4 $163.2 $0.0 $249.8 $60.5 $133.3 Financing Costs $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Common and Preferred Dividends ($13.1)($13.2)($13.3)($13.4)($53.0)($13.5)($13.5)($13.5)($13.5)($54.0)($54.0)($54.0) Other Financing Cash Flow Items ($0.4)($2.1)($0.2)$0.7 ($2.0)($0.4)($0.0)($1.3)$0.0 ($1.7)$0.0 $0.0 FINANCING CASH FLOW $13.5 $200.4 ($75.5)$46.2 $184.6 $43.6 $19.7 $156.6 ($13.5)$206.4 $6.5 $79.3 CHANGE IN CASH ($6.3)$148.9 ($135.8)($8.7)($1.9)($0.6)$1.5 $168.8 ($51.9)$117.9 ($100.8)($0.0) OP. CF BEFORE W/C PER SHARE $0.98 $0.30 $0.50 $0.00 $1.77 $1.02 $1.08 $1.19 $0.94 $4.21 $4.62 $4.75 BALANCE SHEET Cash and Equivalents $3.6 $12.5 $16.7 $8.0 $8.0 $7.4 $8.9 $57.7 $125.8 $125.8 $25.0 $25.0 Accounts Receivables $73.4 $70.3 $75.1 $74.7 $74.7 $74.4 $74.7 $83.7 $83.7 $83.7 $83.7 $83.7 Inventory, Fuels and Materials $57.1 $58.3 $62.6 $60.5 $60.5 $64.4 $74.0 $75.7 $75.7 $75.7 $75.7 $75.7 Other Current Assets $324.8 $351.4 $338.7 $324.5 $324.5 $323.1 $308.7 $299.4 $299.4 $299.4 $299.4 $299.4 TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS $458.9 $492.4 $493.1 $467.8 $467.8 $469.4 $466.3 $516.5 $584.6 $584.6 $483.7 $483.7 TOTAL PP&E $2,446.6 $2,501.6 $2,554.6 $2,616.6 $2,616.6 $2,649.0 $2,687.8 $2,717.2 $2,767.3 $2,767.3 $2,962.3 $3,143.3 Other Long-term Assets $501.8 $538.3 $564.9 $569.0 $569.0 $591.1 $594.5 $617.7 $625.6 $625.6 $665.2 $693.9 TOTAL ASSETS $3,407.4 $3,532.3 $3,612.6 $3,653.3 $3,653.3 $3,709.5 $3,748.6 $3,851.3 $3,977.4 $3,977.4 $4,111.3 $4,321.0 Accounts Payables $199.9 $172.5 $210.6 $271.6 $271.6 $302.0 $348.1 $270.1 $270.1 $270.1 $270.1 $270.1 Short-term Debt & Current Portions $94.2 $91.3 $92.4 $11.5 $11.5 $11.3 $8.6 $7.8 $246.1 $246.1 $166.1 $292.6 Other Current Liabilities $98.9 $84.5 $81.5 $92.3 $92.3 $100.5 $95.2 $108.5 $108.5 $108.5 $108.5 $108.5 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES $393.0 $348.4 $384.5 $375.3 $375.3 $413.9 $452.0 $386.5 $624.8 $624.8 $544.8 $671.3 Long-term Debt and Other Obligations $926.9 $1,064.6 $1,061.3 $1,156.9 $1,156.9 $1,155.3 $1,153.5 $1,273.0 $1,154.7 $1,154.7 $1,295.2 $1,302.0 Deferred Income Taxes $463.5 $475.1 $486.0 $466.2 $466.2 $479.6 $468.9 $473.8 $482.8 $482.8 $518.8 $554.8 Other Long-term Liabilities $471.2 $474.7 $472.7 $447.6 $447.6 $443.2 $449.6 $447.3 $447.3 $447.3 $447.3 $447.3 TOTAL LONG-TERM LIABILITIES $1,861.6 $2,014.5 $2,020.0 $2,070.7 $2,070.7 $2,078.1 $2,072.0 $2,194.1 $2,084.9 $2,084.9 $2,261.4 $2,304.1 Long-term Financings $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 TOTAL LIABILITIES $2,254.5 $2,362.8 $2,404.5 $2,446.0 $2,446.0 $2,492.0 $2,523.9 $2,580.6 $2,709.6 $2,709.6 $2,806.1 $2,975.4 Equity and Additional Paid-in Capital $639.5 $650.1 $672.9 $675.8 $675.8 $678.7 $682.1 $691.2 $691.2 $691.2 $691.2 $691.2 Retained Earnings $520.0 $525.3 $540.8 $537.7 $537.7 $545.9 $549.8 $588.0 $585.2 $585.2 $622.5 $663.0 Other Stockholders' Equity ($6.7)($5.9)($5.6)($6.2)($6.2)($7.2)($7.3)($8.5)($8.5)($8.5)($8.5)($8.5) TOTAL STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY $1,152.8 $1,169.5 $1,208.1 $1,207.3 $1,207.3 $1,217.5 $1,224.6 $1,270.7 $1,267.8 $1,267.8 $1,305.2 $1,345.6 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY $3,407.4 $3,532.3 $3,612.6 $3,653.3 $3,653.3 $3,709.5 $3,748.6 $3,851.3 $3,977.4 $3,977.4 $4,111.3 $4,321.0 Sources: Company reports; RBC Capital Markets estimates. Lasan Johong - (212) 428-6462; lasan.johong@rbccm.com IDACORP, Inc.November 11, 2008 5 Required Disclosures Explanation of RBC Capital Markets Rating System An analyst's 'sector' is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst's view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst's sector average. Ratings Top Pick (TP):Represents best in Outperform category; analyst's best ideas; expected to significantly outperform the sector over 12 months; provides best risk-reward ratio; approximately 10% of analyst's recommendations. Outperform (O):Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months. Sector Perform (SP):Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months. Underperform (U):Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months. Risk Qualifiers (any of the following criteria may be present): Average Risk (Avg):Volatility and risk expected to be comparable to sector; average revenue and earnings predictability; no significant cash flow/financing concerns over coming 12-24 months; fairly liquid. Above Average Risk (AA):Volatility and risk expected to be above sector; below average revenue and earnings predictability; may not be suitable for a significant class of individual equity investors; may have negative cash flow; low market cap or float. Speculative (Spec):Risk consistent with venture capital; low public float; potential balance sheet concerns; risk of being delisted. Distribution of Ratings, Firmwide For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' ratings of Top Pick/Outperform, Sector Perform and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described above). Distribution of Ratings/IB Services RBC Capital Markets Investment Banking Serv./Past 12 Mos. Rating Count Percent Count Percent BUY[TP/O] 527 45.83 136 25.81 HOLD[SP] 526 45.74 102 19.39 SELL[U] 97 8.43 13 13.40 References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may include one or more recommended lists or model portfolios maintained by a business unit of the Wealth Management Division of RBC Capital Markets Corporation. These Recommended Lists include the Prime Opportunity List (RL 3), the Private Client Prime Portfolio (RL 4), the Prime Income List (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), and the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8). The abbreviation 'RL On' means the IDACORP, Inc.November 11, 2008 6 date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation 'RL Off' means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List. Analyst Certification All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report. Dissemination of Research RBC Capital Markets endeavours to make all reasonable efforts to provide research simultaneously to all eligible clients, having regard to local time zones in overseas jurisdictions. RBC Capital Markets' research is posted to our proprietary websites to ensure eligible clients receive coverage initiations and changes in rating, targets and opinions in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done by the sales personnel via email, fax or regular mail. Clients may also receive our research via third party vendors. Please contact your investment advisor or institutional salesperson for more information regarding RBC Capital Markets research. RBC Capital Markets also provides eligible clients with access to a database which may contain Short-Term trading calls on certain of the subject companies for which it currently provides equity research coverage. The database may be accessed via the following hyperlink https://www2.rbccm.com/cmonline/index.html. The information regarding Short-Term trading calls accessible through the database does not constitute a research report. These Short-Term trading calls are not formal ratings and reflect the research analyst's views with respect to market and trading events in the coming days or weeks and, as such, may differ from the price targets and recommendations in our published research reports reflecting the research analyst's views of the longer-term (one year) prospects of the subject company. Thus, it is possible that a subject company's common equity that is considered a long-term 'sector perform' or even an 'underperform' might be a Short-Term buying opportunity as a result of temporary selling pressure in the market; conversely, a subject company's common equity rated a long-term 'outperform' could be considered susceptible to a Short-Term downward price correction. Conflicts Disclosures RBC Capital Markets Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on request. To access our current policy, clients should refer to http://www.rbccm.com/cm/file/0,,63022,00.pdf or send a request to RBC CM Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7. We reserve the right to amend or supplement this policy at any time. Important Disclosures The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates. A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from IDACORP, Inc. during the past 12 months. During this time, a member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates provided non-securities services to IDACORP, Inc. RBC Capital Markets is currently providing IDACORP, Inc. with non-securities services. RBC Capital Markets has provided IDACORP, Inc. with non-securities services in the past 12 months. Additional Disclosures RBC Capital Markets is the business name used by certain subsidiaries of Royal Bank of Canada, including RBC Dominion Securities Inc., RBC Capital Markets Corporation, Royal Bank of Canada Europe Limited and Royal Bank of Canada - Sydney Branch. The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Capital Markets from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Capital Markets, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Capital Markets' judgement as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The investments or services contained in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or services. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. RBC Capital Markets research analyst compensation is based in part on the overall profitability of RBC Capital Markets, which includes profits attributable to investment banking revenues. Every province in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, the securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. To the full extent permitted by law neither RBC Capital Markets nor any of its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior IDACORP, Inc.November 11, 2008 7 consent of RBC Capital Markets. Additional information is available on request. To U.S. Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Capital Markets Corporation, which is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and which accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United States. Any U.S. recipient of this report that is not a registered broker-dealer or a bank acting in a broker or dealer capacity and that wishes further information regarding, or to effect any transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report, should contact and place orders with RBC Capital Markets Corporation. To Canadian Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Any Canadian recipient of this report that is not a Designated Institution in Ontario, an Accredited Investor in British Columbia or Alberta or a Sophisticated Purchaser in Quebec (or similar permitted purchaser in any other province) and that wishes further information regarding, or to effect any transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report should contact and place orders with RBC Dominion Securities Inc., which, without in any way limiting the foregoing, accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in Canada. To U.K. Residents: This publication has been approved by Royal Bank of Canada Europe Limited ('RBCEL') which is authorized and regulated by Financial ServicesAuthority ('FSA'), in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom. This material is not for general distribution in the United Kingdom to retail clients, as defined under the rules of the FSA. However, targeted distribution may be made to selected retail clients of RBC and its affiliates. RBCEL accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United Kingdom. To Persons Receiving This Advice in Australia: This material has been distributed in Australia by Royal Bank of Canada - Sydney Branch (ABN 86 076 940 880, AFSL No. 246521). This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any recipient. Accordingly, any recipient should, before acting on this material, consider the appropriateness of this material having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If this material relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, a recipient in Australia should obtain any relevant disclosure document prepared in respect of that product and consider that document before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. To Hong Kong Residents: This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited, a licensed corporation under the Securities and Futures Ordinance or, by Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch, a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. Hong Kong persons wishing to obtain further information on any of the securities mentioned in this publication should contact RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited or Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch at 17/Floor, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong (telephone number is 2848-1388). To Singapore Residents: This publication is distributed in Singapore by RBC (Singapore Branch), a registered entity granted offshore bank status by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. You are advised to seek independent advice from a financial adviser before purchasing any product. If you do not obtain independent advice, you should consider whether the product is suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. ®Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. RBC Capital Markets is a trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license. Copyright © RBC Capital Markets Corporation 2008 - Member SIPC Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2008 - Member CIPF Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada Europe Limited 2008 Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2008 All rights reserved IDACORP, Inc.November 11, 2008