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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDA070810.pdf Please refer to pages 6-7 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. * D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security. Institutional Equity Research IDACORP, INC. July 8, 2010 IDA* – NYSE Rating: Buy Price: (7/8/10) $34.56 Price Targets: 12-18 month: $39.50 5-year: $44.00 Industry: Utilities James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA 406.791.7230 jbellessa@dadco.com Michael Bates Research Associate 406.791.7216 mbates@dadco.com Adjusting Quarterly Results, but Maintaining Annual Earnings Estimates • Cool and moist second quarter should constrain electric usage. We believe that a cool and moist May and June in Idaho Power’s service territory will temper air conditioning load and irrigator usage for 2Q’10. Other factors likely to hold back results are a tepid economy, conservation, and low prices for off-system sales. These negative pressures may have been partially offset by the impacts of positive regulatory orders and an above-normal heating load in April. • Rate order benefits commenced in June. Effective June 1, 2010, the utility began to receive the benefit of a $28.7 million annual revenue increase due to the approval of a settlement agreement calling for a sharing between customers and shareholders of any reduction in the Power Cost Adjustment (PCA), in which a true-up of the load growth adjustment rate (LGAR)was embedded. Also, a $3.6 million annual bump up in the fixed cost adjustment mechanism (FCA) pilot program should help June’s results. • Two tax treatment studies coming to an end. IDACORP has been evaluating the tax accounting treatments for repair-related expenditures and the IRS’ Compliance Assurance Process (CAP) program relating to the allocation of mixed service costs under the uniform capitalization method. When 1Q’10 results were reported, management discontinued its practice of issuing guidance on the tax rate of the utility and the parent company. Now that these studies are concluding, management anticipates it will be able to provide clarity on tax issues during its scheduled August 5, 2010 earnings release and conference call. We now expect 2H’10 earnings will be lifted by a low tax rate. However, the resulting increases in earnings could result in the reversal of a 1Q’10 EPS benefit of $0.16 for the amortization of accumulated deferred investment tax credits (ADITC). • Lowering EPS estimate for recent quarter. Due to the aforementioned effects, and a higher than previously assumed tax rate, we are lowering our 2Q’10 EPS for IDACORP, Inc. from $0.61 to $0.53. If accurate, this new forecast will compare to 2Q’09 EPS of $0.58. Our full-year 2010 estimate remains unchanged at $2.70, as we are raising our 2H’10 forecasts due to an assumption of a lower tax rate. Our 2011 estimate of $2.90 also remains unchanged. • We are maintaining our 12-18 month target price of $39.50, which equates to ~14x the average of our unchanged 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates. At the current share price, we are maintaining our BUY rating. Valuation Data Long-term growth rate (E) 5% Total Debt/Cap (3/31/10) 50.8% Cash per share (3/31/10) $0.86 Book value per share (3/31/10) $29.17 Dividend (yield) $1.20 (3.5%) Return on Equity (T-T-M) 9.0% Trading Data Shares outstanding (M) 48.1 Market Capitalization ($M) $1,662 52-week range $24.68 - $36.93 Average daily volume (3 mos.) (K) 275 Float 98% Index Membership S&P 400 FY (Dec) 2009A 2010E Previous 2011E Previous Revenue ($M) Q1 (Mar) $228.6 $253.0 A $239.3 n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $243.6 $240.0 E $263.0 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $324.5 $323.9 E $323.5 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $253.1 $252.0 E $251.5 n.a.n.a. $1,049.8 $1,068.8 E $1,076.9 $1,137.6 $1,118.7 Price/Revenue 1.6x 1.6x 1.5x EPS Q1 (Mar) $0.40 $0.34 A $0.42 n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $0.58 $0.53 E $0.61 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $1.16 $1.42 E $1.30 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $0.49 $0.41 E $0.37 n.a.n.a. $2.64 $2.70 E NC $2.90 NC Price/EPS 13.1x 12.8x 11.9x EBITDA ($M) Q1 (Mar) $73.7 $69.0 A $74.8 n.a.n.a. Q2 (Jun) $77.8 $83.5 E $86.0 n.a.n.a. Q3 (Sep) $115.2 $126.8 E $124.0 n.a.n.a. Q4 (Dec) $72.4 $74.8 E $74.4 n.a.n.a. $339.2 $354.0 E $359.2 $408.3 $405.8 EV/EBITDA 9.0x 8.7x 7.5x D.A. Davidson & Co. 2 Price Chart 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00 IDACORP Inc. (IDA-US) 07-Jul-2009 to 08-Jul-2010 (Daily)High:36.93 Low: 24.68 Last: 34.33 08/03/09 09/01/09 10/01/09 11/02/09 12/01/09 01/01/10 02/01/10 03/01/10 04/01/10 05/03/10 06/01/10 07/01/10 0.2M 0.4M 0.6M 0.8M 1M ©FactSet Research Systems Volume in millions Source: FactSet Company Description: Boise, ID -- IDACORP, Inc. is the holding company for the Idaho Power Company, an electric public utility that serves an approximate 24,000 square mile area in Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Non-regulated subsidiaries include an affordable housing project finance company and an operator of small hydroelectric generation projects. Potential Risks: • Regulatory. Idaho Power is required to seek and receive approval from state and federal regulators before making changes to its utility rates and business practices, executing acquisitions, and raising capital. Changes in the regulatory environment could influence the utility’s credit ratings and its ability to attract returns on its investments. • Interest rates and access to capital markets. Dividend-paying stocks, especially utility issues like IDACORP, Inc., are sensitive to interest rates. A material increase in market interest rates may lead to compression in utility stock prices. We also note that IDACORP’s ability to obtain capital under competitive terms and rates is critical to executing its capital expenditure programs. • Legislative. New legislation may be enacted to address the effects of climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which would likely have a significant impact on the electric utility industry. • Commodity prices. IDACORP is exposed to the risks of fluctuations in the price of several commodities, including natural gas, wholesale electricity, and coal. Although these risks are partially mitigated in the ratemaking process, the utility absorbs/receives a portion of the risks/benefits when costs deviate materially from levels approved in base rates. • Economic and weather conditions. Economic conditions influence customer demand for utility services, as well as demand for the services of IDACORP’s non-utility subsidiaries. Demand for utility services is also affected by weather conditions, which our model assumes will match historical averages. • IRS audits. IDACORP’s records for the 2009 and 2010 tax years are subject to IRS audit through IDA’s participation in the Compliance Assurance Process (CAP) program, which is specifically investigating the company’s method of uniform capitalization of mixed service costs. At this point we are unable to predict what impact these investigations will have on IDACORP’s business. D.A. Davidson & Co. 3 Regulatory Update Revenue Increase vera e Rate Base Return on Equity Return on Rate Base Equit Ratio Effective, January 2010 Effective, March 2010 $5.0 (+15.4%) $111 10.2% 8.06% 49.8% 2008 Idaho Rate Case Effective, March 2009 $27.0 (+4.0%) $2,094 10.5% 8.18% 49.3% 2009 Idaho Rate Settlement 1 Notes to Regulatory Summary ($ in millions) 2009 Oregon General Rate Case 1 In January 2010, the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) approved a settlement agreement with respect to rates for 2009–2011, including four important elements: (1) a general rate freeze until January 1, 2012, with some exceptions (including adjustments to the power cost adjustment (PCA) and fixed cost adjustment (FCA)); (2) a specified distribution of the expected 2010 PCA decrease to directly reduce customer rates, providing some general rate relief to Idaho Power and resetting base level power supply costs for the PCA going forward; (3) use of up to $45 million of accumulated deferred investment tax credits (ADITC) to get to a 9.5% ROE in the Idaho jurisdiction; and (4) an equal sharing of any Idaho earnings exceeding the authorized level of 10.5%. D.A. Davidson & Co. 4 IDACORP, Inc. – Quarterly Financial Position ($ in thousands) -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2008 3/31/2009 6/30/2009 9/30/2009 2009 3/31/2010 Current Assets: Cash And Cash Equivalents $8,828 $89,113 $16,002 $28,869 $52,987 $41,436 Receivables: Customer 64,733 70,919 70,777 83,990 76,792 71,518 Allowance For Uncollectible Accounts (1,724) (1,482) (1,247) (1,534) (2,878) Employee Notes Receivable 179 Other 10,260 15,099 14,226 12,242 12,995 10,903 Taxes Receivable 18,111 9,710 99 Accrued Unbilled Revenues 43,934 35,751 48,265 49,779 51,272 40,033 Materials And Supplies (At Avg. Cost) 50,121 52,778 51,251 50,599 48,054 47,535 Fuel Stock (At Average Cost) 16,852 13,941 23,331 22,346 25,634 25,006 Prepayments 10,059 9,878 9,493 11,659 11,111 8,810 Deferred Income Taxes 37,550 14,792 14,731 14,739 31,773 31,773 Other Current Assets 7,381 8,956 8,602 3,105 2,666 4,413 Total Current Assets $266,284 $319,455 $255,530 $275,794 $310,406 $281,427 Investments And Other Property 198,552 185,532 193,548 197,861 195,298 200,458 Total Other Assets 799,844 795,881 799,110 796,494 816,015 779,520 Electric Plant: In Service (At Original Cost) $4,030,134 $4,077,121 $4,107,992 $4,141,054 $4,160,178 $4,177,048 Accumulated Provision For Depreciation (1,505,120) (1,520,896) (1,540,469) (1,556,226) (1,558,538) (1,565,201) In Service - Net $2,525,014 $2,556,225 $2,567,523 $2,584,828 $2,601,640 $2,611,847 Construction Work In Progress 207,662 186,662 201,155 236,632 289,188 323,116 Held For Future Use 6,318 6,653 6,653 6,549 7,151 7,149 Other Property, Net Of Accum. Depreciation 19,171 19,270 19,157 19,134 19,029 18,915 Property, Plant And Equipment - Net $2,758,165 $2,768,810 $2,794,488 $2,847,143 $2,917,008 $2,961,027 Total Assets $4,022,845 $4,069,678 $4,042,676 $4,117,292 $4,238,727 $4,222,432 Current Liabilities: Long-Term Debt Due Within One Year $86,528 $81,502 $83,502 $84,064 $9,340 $131,951 Notes Payable 151,250 150,700 79,099 36,780 53,750 26,100 Accounts Payable 96,785 53,010 66,038 88,136 83,818 53,040 Taxes Accured 20,531 10,184 40,118 Interest Accrued 16,727 24,054 17,919 27,680 20,056 25,682 Uncertain Tax Positions 4,119 4,509 Other Current Liabilities 40,259 47,017 44,069 37,761 41,081 51,325 Total Current Liabilities $395,668 $360,792 $290,627 $294,952 $218,229 $328,216 Total Other Liabilities 1,136,855 1,116,709 1,137,982 1,154,651 1,209,224 1,197,024 Noncontrolling Interest 4,434 3,987 4,082 4,311 4,209 4,003 Long-Term Debt 1,183,451 1,279,504 1,283,570 1,282,900 1,409,730 1,290,243 Total Common Stock Equity $1,302,437 $1,308,686 $1,326,415 $1,380,478 $1,397,335 $1,402,946 Total Capitalization And Liabilities $2,720,408 $2,760,992 $2,716,261 $2,736,814 $2,841,392 $2,819,486 Common Shares Outstanding (End of Period)46,920 47,145 47,248 47,650 47,897 48,098 Total Debt (end of period)1,421,229 1,511,706 1,446,171 1,403,744 1,472,820 1,448,294 Total Debt (average)1,388,005 1,466,468 1,478,939 1,424,958 1,447,025 1,460,557 Book Value Per Share $27.76 $27.76 $28.07 $28.97 $29.17 $29.17 Current Ratio 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.9 Capital Structure: Common Equit 47.8% 46.4% 47.8% 49.6% 48.7% 49.2% Debt (Short-Term & Long-Term)52.2% 53.6% 52.2% 50.4% 51.3% 50.8% Capitalization 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% D.A. Davidson & Co. 5 IDACORP, Inc. – Historical and Projected Operating Results ($ in thousands) -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2008 1Q'09 2Q'09 3Q'09 4Q'09 2009 1Q'10 2Q'10E 3Q'10E 4Q'10E 2010E 2011E REVENUES: Electric Utility: General Business $784,311 $187,927 $198,215 $277,676 $219,947 $883,765 $203,745 $208,235 $281,265 $213,088 $906,333 $950,922 Off System Sales 121,430 28,530 26,667 23,691 15,485 94,373 34,406 18,405 29,311 25,514 107,636 130,700 Other Revenues 50,335 11,572 17,636 21,761 16,889 67,858 14,309 12,500 12,500 12,500 51,809 52,500 Total Electric Utility Revenues 956,076 228,029 242,518 323,128 252,321 1,045,996 252,460 239,140 323,076 251,102 1,065,778 1,134,122 Diversified Operations: Other 4,338 545 1,116 1,381 762 3,804 503 850 850 850 3,053 3,500 Total Revenues $960,414 $228,574 $243,634 $324,509 $253,083 $1,049,800 $252,963 $239,990 $323,926 $251,952 $1,068,831 $1,137,622 EXPENSES: Electric Utility: Purchased Power $231,137 $32,795 $25,091 $73,483 $29,200 $160,569 $21,174 $22,667 $60,506 $49,878 $154,224 $188,163 Fuel Expense 149,403 39,133 24,475 49,530 36,428 149,566 37,187 28,697 51,692 40,176 157,752 175,789 Third Party Transmission Expense 7,250 906 1,776 2,791 1,156 6,629 Power Cost Adjustment (47,413)15,859 26,762 1,614 22,475 66,710 48,324 23,000 0 0 71,324 13,500 Total Power Supply $340,377 $88,693 $78,104 $127,418 $89,259 $383,474 $106,685 $74,363 $112,198 $90,054 $383,300 $377,452 Other Operations And Maintenance 286,779 68,769 74,653 68,970 80,719 293,111 72,094 72,699 71,077 78,846 294,715 320,957 Energy Efficiency Programs 18,880 4,058 8,673 12,202 6,888 31,821 5,034 9,000 13,000 7,500 34,534 38,000 Gain On Sale Of Emission Allowances (504)(229) (60) (9)(298)0 0 Depreciation 102,086 25,963 26,832 28,837 28,994 110,626 28,583 29,500 30,500 30,500 119,083 125,000 Taxes Other Than Income Taxes 19,083 5,062 5,088 5,600 5,319 21,069 5,680 5,261 5,492 5,524 21,958 22,682 Total Electric Utility Expenses $766,701 $192,316 $193,290 $243,027 $211,170 $839,803 $218,076 $190,823 $232,267 $212,424 $853,590 $884,091 Other Expenses 3,046 624 872 1,879 3,039 6,414 840 1,200 1,400 1,200 4,640 5,200 Total Operating Expenses $769,747 $192,940 $194,162 $244,906 $214,209 $846,217 $218,916 $192,023 $233,667 $213,624 $858,230 $889,291 OPERATING INCOME: Electric Utility $189,375 $35,713 $49,228 $80,101 $41,151 $206,193 $34,384 $48,317 $90,809 $38,678 $212,188 $250,032 Other Diversified Operations 1,292 (79) 244 (498) (2,277)(2,610)(337) (350) (550) (350)(1,587) (1,700) Equity In Earnings Of Partnerships Combined Operating Income $190,667 $35,634 $49,472 $79,603 $38,874 $203,583 $34,047 $47,967 $90,259 $38,328 $210,601 $248,332 Total Other Income:3,831 6,921 4,058 4,569 1,449 16,997 4,481 3,500 3,500 3,500 14,981 15,000 Earnings Of Uncons. Eq-Method Inv.(3,997)402 (2,620) 2,866 (1,681)(1,033)(2,378) (2,000) (500) (500)(5,378) (3,000) Total Other Expenses: INTEREST EXPENSE AND OTHER: Interest On Long-Term Debt $67,251 $16,639 $18,282 $18,840 $19,610 $73,371 $19,441 $20,000 $20,250 $20,500 $80,191 $83,500 Other Interest 5,805 836 (117) (239) (1,041)(561)(453) 500 500 500 1,047 2,500 Total Interest Expense And Other $73,056 $17,475 $18,165 $18,601 $18,569 $72,810 $18,988 $20,500 $20,750 $21,000 $81,238 $86,000 Income Before Income Taxes:117,445 25,482 32,745 68,437 20,073 146,737 17,162 28,967 72,509 20,328 138,966 174,332 Accumulated Deferred Investment Tax Credits Income Taxes:19,200 6,796 5,175 13,730 (3,339)22,362 1,305 3,476 3,625 203 8,610 27,893 Tax Rate 16%27% 16% 20% -17% 15% 8% 12% 5% 1%6% 16% Income From Continuing Operations $98,245 $18,686 $27,570 $54,707 $23,412 $124,375 $15,857 $25,491 $68,884 $20,124 $130,356 $146,438 Losses From Disc. Ops. (Net Of Tax)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Income $98,245 $18,686 $27,570 $54,707 $23,412 $124,375 $15,857 $25,491 $68,884 $20,124 $130,356 $146,438 Adjustment For Noncontrolling Interest 169 198 (95) (229) 101 (25)206 50 50 50 356 300 Net Income Available For Common $98,414 $18,884 $27,475 $54,478 $23,513 $124,350 $16,063 $25,541 $68,934 $20,174 $130,712 $146,738 Avg. Common Shares Outstanding (000)45,379 46,876 46,977 47,141 47,724 47,182 47,885 48,285 48,685 49,085 48,485 50,685 Earnings Per Share (Diluted)$2.17 $0.40 $0.58 $1.16 $0.49 $2.64 $0.34 $0.53 $1.42 $0.41 $2.70 $2.90 Dividends Per Common Share $1.20 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 $1.20 Dividend Payout Ratio 55%74% 51% 26% 61%46%89% 57% 21% 73%45% 41% EPS By Segment Idaho Power Company $2.07 $0.41 $0.56 $1.08 $0.54 $2.60 $0.38 $0.52 $1.39 $0.38 $2.68 $2.86 Idacorp Energy 0.01 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)(0.01)0.00 Ida-West Energy 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.03 (0.00)0.06 0.00 Idacorp Financial 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.01 (0.00)0.01 (0.00) Holding Company (0.04)(0.02) (0.01) 0.04 (0.05)(0.03)(0.05) Reported Eps, Diluted $2.17 $0.40 $0.58 $1.16 $0.49 $2.64 $0.34 $0.53 $1.42 $0.41 $2.70 $2.90 D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2010. All rights reserved. 6 Required Disclosures D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA and Michael Bates, the research analysts principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions. We, James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA and Michael Bates, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Ratings Information D.A. Davidson & Co. Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform Risk adjusted return potential azbycx Over 15% total return expected on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months >0-15% return potential on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Likely to remain flat or lose value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Distribution of Ratings (as of 3/31/10) Buy Hold Sell Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform and Distribution 52% 40% 8% Corresponding Private Client Research Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform and Distribution 78% 22% 0% Distribution of Combined Ratings 55% 38% 7% Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos. Institutional Coverage 7% 5% 6% Private Client Coverage 0% 0% 0% Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 6% 5% 6% D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2010. All rights reserved. 7 Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria. Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends. Other Disclosures Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee, express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice before making any investment decisions. 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