Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDA011409.pdf Please refer to pages 10-11 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. Institutional Equity Research IDACORP, INC. January 14, 2009 IDA – NYSE Rating: BUY Price: (1/14/09) $29.09 Price Targets: 12-18 month: $32 5-year: $39 Industry: Utilities James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA 406.791.7230 jbellessa@dadco.com Company Description: Boise, ID -- IDACORP, Inc. is the holding company for the Idaho Power Company, an electric public utility that serves an approximate 24,000 square mile area in Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Non- regulated subsidiaries include an affordable housing project finance company and an operator of small hydroelectric generation projects. FY (Dec) 2007A 2008E Y-O-Y Growth 2009E Y-O-Y Growth Revenue ($M) $879.4 $975.9 11% $1,080.9 11% Previous - NC $1,163.5 Price/Revenue ratio 1.5x 1.3x 1.3x EPS Revised $1.86 $2.30 24% $2.36 3% Previous - NC NC Price/EPS ratio 15.7x 12.6x 12.3x EBITDA ($M) $293.0 $346.0 18% $363.6 5% EV/EBITDA ratio 9.4x 8.0x 7.6x Quarterly Data: EPS EPS Revenue Revenue EBITDA Previous ($M) Previous ($M) 3/31/08A $0.48 - $213.4 - $80.0 6/30/08A $0.39 - $230.2 - $79.1 9/30/08A $1.14 - $299.7 - $116.1 12/31/08E $0.29 NC $232.6 NC $70.8 Valuation Data Trading Data Long-term growth rate (E) 5% Shares outstanding (M) 45.6 Total Debt/Cap (9/30/08) 53.9% Market Capitalization ($M) $1,326 Cash per share (9/30/08) $1.27 52-week range $21.88 - $36.72 Book value per share (9/30/08) $27.88 Average daily volume (3 mos.) (K) 477 Dividend (yield) $1.20 (4.1%) Float 97% Return on Equity (T-T-M) 8% Index Membership S&P 400 MidCap Rate Case Decision Pending. Hydro Condition Outlook Improves. Maintaining a BUY Rating. • Important rate case decision two weeks away. The Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) is expected to make a decision during the last week of January on Idaho Power’s request to increase electric rates by nearly $67 million, or 9.9%. The staff of the IPUC has recommended an increase of approximately $10 million, or 1.4%. In building out our 2009 earnings estimates by quarter we have assumed the company is granted an increase of approximately $44 million, or 6.5%, effective February 1st. • As expected, stipulated agreement for PCA methodologies accepted. On January 9th, the IPUC accepted a number of changes in the utility’s power cost adjustment (PCA) mechanism. These changes are summarized on pages 5-6. Of note, the decision to change the power cost sharing ratio between ratepayers and shareholders to 95%/5% reduces the volatility of outcomes for the utility. • Fed’s outlook for Snake River masks true streamflow outlook. On January 9th, the National Weather Service Northwest River Forecast Center indicated that it expects inflows into the Brownlee Reservoir for the April-July 2009 period to be only 67% of normal. We believe this forecast belies other data that suggests the outlook is better (see pages 3-4). • Maintaining 2009 forecast. Our 2009 EPS forecast of $2.36 remains unchanged in front of the upcoming general rate decision. We are maintaining our 12-18 month target price of $32, or 13.6x our 2009 EPS estimate, and our BUY rating. D.A. Davidson & Co. 2 Price Chart Source: Thomson One D.A. Davidson & Co. 3 We believe the National Weather Service Northwest River Forecast Center forecast that inflows into the Brownlee Reservoir for the April-July 2009 period will be only 67% of normal belies other data. First, all reservoirs upstream to the Brownlee Reservoir are at or above average fill levels for this time of year. Second, as shown in Chart 1, precipitation since October 1, 2008 in all 16 regions of Idaho Power’s Snake River drainage are at or above normal for this time of year. Third, as shown in Chart 2, the overall snow water equivalent of the current snowpack in the Snake River drainage appears to be near normal for this time of year. In other words, drought impacted soil moisture has improved this water year, reservoir levels do not need to be replenished, and there is frozen water in the mountains that should provide good runoff for hydrogeneration during the spring and early summer. While the current outlook for 2009 streamflows appears to be good for Idaho Power, it is important to remember that we are only halfway through the winter and future weather over the next three months could change the outlook for hydrogeneration before the May/June period. Chart 1: Idaho Water Year (Oct. 1st) to Date Precipitation as a Percent of Normal Source: USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Evidence of improved hydro conditions D.A. Davidson & Co. 4 Chart 2: Idaho Current Snow Water Equivalent as a Percent of Normal Source: USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center On January 9, 2009, the Idaho Public Utility Commission approved a stipulated agreement regarding the Power Cost Adjustment Mechanism. One aspect of the stipulation is the replacement of the federal government’s forecasted inflows into the Brownlee Reservoir with the company’s own forecast, which the IPUC accepts as being more accurate. Here are the applicable sentences from the Order. “The third component addressed in the Stipulation is the PCA forecast. Currently the power supply forecast is based on estimated stream flow into Brownlee Reservoir. Power supply costs are estimated using load and natural gas prices as established in the Company s last rate case. Variations in the forecast from actual expenditures included in rates are collected the following year through the PCA. The Stipulation recognizes that the current forecast methodology has created unreasonably large true-ups at annual PCA reviews. The Stipulation states that forecasting power supply costs based on the Company s existing Operating Plan will improve forecasts and reduce future true-ups. . . Utility’s hydrology data to replace federal government’s forecast D.A. Davidson & Co. 5 “The Stipulation recognizes that the current PCA forecast is flawed and sends inaccurate and improper power supply price signals. Inaccuracies in river flow forecasts and the power supply modeling create errors in the power supply forecast when compared to actual power supply expenditures. In addition, the system load and the gas price forecast used in the power supply model are based on information established in the last general rate case. The combination of internal modeling inaccuracies and outdated load and gas price data has resulted in a significant underestimation of power supply costs and subsequent very large PCA true-ups.” James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA Vice President and Senior Research Analyst 406.791.7230 Recent Regulatory Decisions/Filings 2008 Idaho General Rate Case Idaho Power Company filed a request with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) on June 27, 2008 for a general rate increase of $66.6 million (9.89% over current electric rates). The requested increase equates to an 8.55% rate of return on the company’s filed $2.1 billion rate base and is based on a 2008 test year. The requested return on equity is 11.25% on an equity ratio of 49.3%. Idaho Power is requesting the increase in order to recover its substantial investment in its electrical system, as well as its increasing operating and maintenance expenses. Testimony was filed by IPUC Staff and other intervenors in the case on October 24th, recommending an increase of $9.7 million (a 1.44% increase). Primary reasons given for the lower revenue requirement include: A suggested ROE of 10.25% and rate of return of 8.06%, lower operations & maintenance expenses, and a smaller-than- requested rate base. Rebuttal testimony was filed on December 3rd, followed by public meetings through mid-December. Idaho Power has requested that the rate increase go into effect on February 1, 2009. On January 9, 2009, the utility and IPUC staff filed a joint motion requesting that the Commission defer making a ruling on the prudency determination of Energy Efficiency Rider (EER) funds spent from 2003-2007, and issue its final order in the rate case without the prudency determination. The utility and IPUC staff intend to hold settlement discussions regarding the EER funds, and will file any agreement reached for the review and approval of the Commission at a later date. 2008 Idaho PCA Proceedings Idaho Power filed its 2008/2009 Power Cost Adjustment (PCA) in April 2008, requesting recovery of approximately $87 million in power supply and fuel expenses incurred from April 15, 2007 through April 15, 2008. However, subsequent to its PCA filing, state regulators ordered that $16 million of proceeds plus interest from the sale of SO2 credits in 2007 be used to reduce the impact of the PCA filing from $87 million to $70.7 million. On May 30, 2008, the IPUC ordered a change in Idaho Power’s methodology in calculating the PCA. The new methodology results in an equal amount of power supply costs across all months, compared with the older, more seasonal allocation that would have recognized significantly more power supply costs in the third quarter and less in the first and second quarters. The new PCA mechanism, which is not expected to have a material impact on annual financial results, went into effect on June 1st, as well as an approved increase to existing revenues of $73.3 million (10.7%). A stipulated agreement was accepted by the IPUC on January 9, 2009 which will allow for annual adjustments to retail rates by tracking the difference between actual power supply expenses and net power supply expenses currently being recovered in rates. The stipulation addresses five aspects of the PCA, with a sixth aspect being deferred for future discussion: D.A. Davidson & Co. 6 • As of February 1, 2009, a new mechanism for sharing deviations in power supply cost between the utility and its customers will be applied. The original methodology distributed power cost deviations 90%/10% between customers and shareholders, respectively. The stipulation changes the sharing percentage to 95%/5%. • A new mechanism for calculating the Load Growth Adjustment Rate (LGAR) will go into effect with the implementation of new rates from Idaho Power’s 2008 general rate case. The LGAR is intended to eliminate recovery of power supply expenses due to changing weather conditions, a growing customer base, or different customer usage patterns. • Beginning with the implementation of rates from the 2008 general rate case, third party transmission expenses that are not already included in base rates will be reflected in PCA computations. • Idaho Power will be allowed to use its own forecast of net power supply expenses, replacing the admittedly less accurate forecast of inflows into the Brownlee Reservoir prepared by the federal government, as the starting point for the PCA. This new methodology will become effective with the utility’s next PCA filing in April 2009. • Base net power supply expenses will be distributed throughout the year based on the monthly shape of normalized revenues for purposes of the PCA deferral calculation. This change will take effect with the implementation of rates from the 2008 general rate case. • The current policy of allocating PCA expenses to different customer classes on an equal cents-per-kWh basis should be re-evaluated following Idaho Power’s current general rate case. Advanced Metering Infrastructure Case On August 4, 2008, Idaho Power filed a request with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission for permission to install Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) technology throughout its service territory at a cost of $71 million. The installations would begin in January 2009 and conclude in 2011. Approximately two-thirds of the AMI costs are included in the company’s 2008-2010 capital expenditure guidance. Idaho Power noted that it will not seek a change in customer rates at this time, even though the 2009 revenue requirement from deployment of the AMI is estimated to be $12.2 million. However, rate impacts will be addressed in subsequent proceedings after a deployment plan is approved by the Commission. 2007 Idaho General Rate Case In February, 2008 state regulators approved a settlement agreement associated with Idaho Power’s June 2007 rate request. The order approves a general electric rate increase of $32.1 million, or 5.2%, effective March 1, 2008. The agreement did not identify a rate base, equity ratio, or an allowed ROE. Idaho Power had originally filed its rate case requesting an increase of approximately $64 million, or 10.35%, and a return on equity of 11.5%. The then- allowed authorized rate of return of 8.1% remained unchanged. Danskin 1 Power Plant Application On May 30, 2008 Idaho Power received authorization from the IPUC to increase customer rates by 1.39%, translating to $8.9 million as a result of $64.2 million being added to the company’s rate base attributed to the new Danskin CT1 natural gas power plant and associated transmission and interconnection upgrades located near Mountain Home, ID. The 170-MW addition to the Danskin Generating Unit is primarily used as a peaking facility and began commercial operation on March 11, 2008. New retail rates associated with the Danskin facility became effective on June 1, 2008. Oregon Power Cost Adjustment Mechanism In April 2008, state regulators in Oregon approved a stipulation agreement regarding Idaho Power’s August 2007 filing for a purchased cost adjustment mechanism (PCAM) in the state of Oregon. The mechanism differs from the Idaho PCA in that it reestablishes the base net power supply costs annually. In Idaho, the base net power supply costs are set by a general D.A. Davidson & Co. 7 rate case. The OPUC approved the request and the new rates went into effect on June 1, 2008. The approved APCU results in a $4.8 million, or 15.69 percent, increase in Oregon revenues. PPL Purchase Power Agreement On August 4, 2008, the IPUC approved Idaho Power’s proposed 2-year power purchase agreement with PPL EnergyPlus, LLC (a PPL Montana subsidiary) which was filed on June 16th. The agreement allows IPC to buy 83 MW per hour of electricity during heavy load times during June through August, at a price of $110 per MWh. The agreement extends through 2011 and replaces a previous agreement which would have expired in 2009. The Commission also approved Idaho Power’s request that the expenses associated with the energy purchase and transmission be included in its annual PCA filing, which is made each April and made effective on June 1st each year. D.A. Davidson & Co. 8 IDACORP, Inc. Balance Sheet $ thousands -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 9/30/2008 ASSETS: Electric Plant: In service (at original cost) $3,220,228 $3,324,816 $3,477,067 $3,583,694 $3,796,339 $3,957,199 Accumulated provision for depreciation (1,239,604)(1,316,125)(1,364,640)(1,406,210)(1,468,832)(1,499,947) In service - net 1,980,624 2,008,691 2,112,427 2,177,484 2,327,507 2,457,252 Construction work in progress 96,091 152,427 149,814 210,094 257,590 225,965 Held for future use 2,438 2,636 2,906 2,810 3,366 6,318 Other property, net of accum. Depreciatio 9,166 45,708 29,294 28,692 28,089 27,615 Property, plant and equipment - net 2,088,319 2,209,462 2,294,441 2,419,080 2,616,552 2,717,150 Investments And Other Property 204,474 223,061 191,593 202,825 201,085 201,807 Current Assets: Cash and cash equivalents 75,159 23,403 52,356 9,892 7,966 57,726 Receivables: Customer 93,599 92,258 94,469 62,131 69,160 78,192 Gas operations Allowance for uncollectible accounts (43,210) (43,108) (33,078) (7,168) (7,505) (1,359) Notes Employee notes receivable 3,347 3,523 2,951 2,569 2,128 203 Other 8,209 8,806 21,377 11,855 10,957 6,617 Total Receivables Energy marketing assets 4,176 9,203 23,859 12,069 0 Derivative assets Taxes receivable Accrued unbilled revenues 30,869 33,832 38,905 31,365 36,314 39,065 Materials and supplies (at avg. cost) 21,351 28,008 30,451 39,079 43,270 51,324 Fuel stock (at average cost)6,228 6,539 11,739 15,174 17,268 24,402 Prepayments 27,779 30,035 17,876 9,308 9,371 10,299 Regulatory assets associated with taxes 4,382 23,407 23,922 28,035 25,672 14,375 Regulatory assets -- derivatives 6,269 5,510 3,064 0 0 Refundable income tax deposit 44,903 46,083 24,903 Other current assets 0 2,956 3,993 6,023 8,904 Assets held for sale 0 0 6,673 3,326 0 Total current assets 238,158 221,416 297,520 266,531 266,707 314,651 Other Assets: American Falls and Milner water rights 31,585 31,585 31,585 30,543 29,501 26,592 Company-owned life insurance 35,624 35,765 35,401 34,055 30,842 29,535Energy marketing assets -- long-term 14,358 16,635 22,189 Regulatory assets associated with taxes 427,760 433,271 415,177 423,548 449,668 502,565Regulatory asset - PCA Regulatory assets - long-term derivatives Regulatory assets - other Long-term receivables 3,106 2,895 4,015 3,802 3,583 4,262 Other 62,724 60,082 46,239 43,670 55,370 54,701 Assets held for sale 25,966 21,076 0 Total other assets 575,157 580,233 580,572 556,694 568,964 617,655 TOTAL ASSETS $3,106,108 $3,234,172 $3,364,126 $3,445,130 $3,653,308 $3,851,263 CAPITALIZATION AND LIABILITIES: Capitalization: Common stock equity Common stock $472,902 $589,440 $598,706 $638,799 $675,774 $691,162 Retained earnings 397,167 424,312 437,284 493,363 537,699 587,998 Other comprehensive income (2,630) (888) (3,425) (5,737) (6,156) (8,461) Treasury stock (3,158) (4,578) (998) (2,242) (2) (39) Unearned compensation (6,316) Total common stock equity 864,281 1,008,286 1,025,251 1,124,183 1,207,315 1,270,660 Preferred stock 52,366 Long-term debt 945,834 979,549 1,023,545 928,648 1,156,880 1,273,028 Total capitalization 1,862,481 1,987,835 2,048,796 2,052,831 2,364,195 2,543,688 Current Liabilities: Long-term debt due within one year 67,923 78,603 16,307 95,125 11,456 7,817 Notes payable 93,650 36,270 60,100 129,000 186,445 203,915 Accounts payable 60,916 79,156 80,324 86,440 85,116 66,195 Energy marketing liabilities 4,317 9,420 24,093 13,532 0 Derivative liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 Taxes accured 45,601 46,318 72,652 47,402 8,492 14,736 Interest accrued 13,741 14,426 14,616 12,657 18,913 29,624 Deferred income taxes Uncertain tax positions 26,764 27,297 Other 25,557 21,265 19,577 23,572 38,129 36,883 Liabilities held for sale 0 0 5,916 2,606 0 Total current liabilities 311,705 285,458 293,585 410,334 375,315 386,467 Other Liabilities: Regulatory liabilities associated with deferred investment tax credits Energy marketing liabilities -- long-term 14,393 16,635 22,189 0 0 Derivative liabilities -- long-term 0 0 0 0 0 Deferred income taxes 554,715 555,774 519,563 498,512 466,182 473,845 Regulatory liabilities associated with income taxes Regulatory liabilities - PCA Regulatory liabilities - other 258,524 275,854 345,109 294,844 274,204 276,469 Other 104,290 112,616 124,833 179,836 173,412 170,794 Liabilities held for sale 0 0 10,051 8,773 0 Total other liabilities 931,922 960,879 1,021,745 981,965 913,798 921,108 TOTAL CAPITALIZATION AND LIABILITIES $3,106,108 $3,234,172 $3,364,126 $3,445,130 $3,653,308 $3,851,263 Shares Outstanding (000's)38,207 42,217 42,632 43,834 45,063 45,576Book Value per Share $22.62 $23.88 $24.05 $25.65 $26.79 $27.88 % of Total Capitalization Long-Term Debt 50.8% 49.3% 50.0% 45.2% 48.9% 50.0% Preferred 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Common 46.4% 50.7% 50.0% 54.8% 51.1% 50.0% D.A. Davidson & Co. 9 IDACORP, Inc. Consolidated Statements of Income $ thousands -- Fiscal year ends 12/31 4Q07 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08E 2008E 1Q09E 2Q09E 3Q'09E 4Q'09E 2009E REVENUES: Electric Utility: General business $156,966 $668,303 $167,313 $188,748 $246,639 $186,500 $789,200 $198,738 $215,892 $265,157 $201,079 $880,866 Off system sales 25,089 154,948 33,363 25,641 34,637 32,050 125,691 37,823 37,903 34,138 34,138 144,003 Other revenues 14,374 52,150 12,120 14,556 16,831 13,000 56,507 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 52,000 Total Electric Utility Revenues 196,429 875,401 212,796 228,945 298,107 231,550 971,398 249,561 266,795 312,295 248,217 1,076,869 Diversified Operations: Other 1,017 3,993 644 1,281 1,609 1,000 4,534 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 4,000 Total Revenues 197,446 879,393 213,440 230,226 299,716 232,550 975,932 250,561 267,795 313,295 249,217 1,080,869 EXPENSES: Electric Utility: Purchased power 48,091 289,484 45,299 50,089 79,513 59,738 234,638 48,653 61,000 76,200 59,925 245,778 Fuel expense 32,598 134,322 37,237 28,681 46,467 38,206 150,591 43,673 33,349 48,406 40,956 166,384 Power cost adjustment (13,674)(121,131)(17,744)(829)(20,105)(10,000)(48,678)(5,000)(1,000)(8,000)(4,000)(18,000) Total Power Supply 67,015 302,675 64,792 77,941 105,875 87,943 336,551 87,326 93,349 116,606 96,881 394,162 Impairment of assets Other Operations and Maintenance 70,639 286,510 68,927 75,617 74,778 73,865 293,187 77,364 88,042 74,951 77,196 317,553 Demand-side management 4,518 13,487 3,364 3,928 5,956 5,000 18,248 5,100 5,200 5,300 5,400 21,000 Gain on sale of emission allowances (2,754)(346) (158)(504) 0 Depreciation 26,203 103,072 25,750 26,617 25,717 26,500 104,584 26,750 27,000 27,250 27,500 108,500 Taxes other than income taxes 3,366 17,634 4,803 4,800 4,827 3,705 18,135 5,490 5,336 4,997 3,971 19,794 Total Electric Utility Expenses 171,741 720,624 167,636 188,557 216,995 197,013 770,200 202,030 218,928 229,103 210,948 861,009 Other:1,910 6,692 1,048 1,140 1,144 1,200 4,532 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 4,800 Total Operating Expenses 173,651 727,316 168,684 189,697 218,139 198,213 774,732 203,230 220,128 230,303 212,148 865,809 OPERATING INCOME Electric Utility 24,688 154,777 45,160 40,388 81,112 34,538 201,198 47,531 47,867 83,192 37,269 215,860 Other Diversified Operations (893)(2,699)(404)141 465 (200)2 (200)(200)(200)(200)(800) Equity in Earnings of Partnerships Operating Income 23,795 152,078 44,756 40,529 81,577 34,338 201,200 47,331 47,667 82,992 37,069 215,060 TOTAL OTHER INCOME:6,657 20,524 4,417 6,082 4,629 5,000 20,128 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 20,000 Earnings of Uncons. Eq-method Inv.(1,567)(4,824)(4,036) (3,278) 2,642 (1,200)(5,872)(1,200) (1,200) (1,200) (1,200)(4,800) TOTAL OTHER EXPENSES:1,597 8,434 365 1,820 2,764 2,000 6,949 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 8,000 INTEREST EXPENSE AND OTHER: Interest on long-term debt 16,655 59,961 16,876 15,744 17,226 17,400 67,246 17,450 17,500 17,550 17,600 70,100 Other interest (502)3,380 596 1,313 1,310 1,350 4,569 1,350 1,350 1,350 1,350 5,400 Net interest charges 16,153 63,341 17,472 17,057 18,536 18,750 71,815 18,800 18,850 18,900 18,950 75,500 Dividends on preferred stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total interest expense and other 16,153 63,341 17,472 17,057 18,536 18,750 71,815 18,800 18,850 18,900 18,950 75,500 INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES:11,135 96,003 27,300 24,456 67,548 17,388 136,692 30,331 30,617 65,892 19,919 146,760 INCOME TAXES:840 13,731 5,584 6,941 15,809 4,173 32,507 7,583 7,654 16,473 4,980 36,690 Income from Continuing Operations 10,295 82,272 21,716 17,515 51,739 13,215 104,185 22,748 22,963 49,419 14,940 110,070 Losses from Disc. Ops. (net of tax)0 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Income Available for Common 10,295 82,339 21,716 17,515 51,739 13,215 104,185 22,748 22,963 49,419 14,940 110,070 Earnings per share from cont. ops.$0.23 $1.86 $0.48 $0.39 $1.14 $0.29 $2.30 $0.49 $0.49 $1.06 $0.32 $2.36 Losses from Discontinued Operations $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 EPS $0.23 $1.86 $0.48 $0.39 $1.14 $0.29 $2.30 $0.49 $0.49 $1.06 $0.32 $2.36 Dividends paid per share of common stock $0.300 $1.20 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $1.20 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $0.300 $1.20 Avg. common shares outstanding (000) 44,918 44,291 45,004 45,096 45,194 45,594 45,222 45,994 46,394 46,794 47,194 46,594 Segment breakdown of EPS Idaho Power Company $0.29 $1.73 $0.47 $0.39 $1.05 $0.32 $2.23 $0.48 $0.47 $1.04 $0.33 $2.32 IDACORP Energy 0.00 ($0.00)(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Ida-West Energy 0.00 $0.05 0.00 0.02 0.03 IDACORP Financial 0.04 $0.16 0.02 0.02 0.02 Holding Company (0.10)($0.08)(0.01)(0.04)0.05 EPS from Continuing Operations $0.23 $1.86 $0.48 $0.39 $1.14 $0.29 $2.30 $0.49 $0.49 $1.06 $0.32 $2.36 D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2009. All rights reserved. 10 Required Disclosures D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA, the research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions. I, James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Ratings Information D.A. Davidson & Co. Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform Risk adjusted return potential Over 15% total return expected on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months >0-15% return potential on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Likely to remain flat or lose value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Distribution of Ratings (as of 12/31/08) Buy Hold Sell Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform and Distribution 48% 49% 3% Corresponding Private Client Research Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform and Distribution 95% 5% 0% Distribution of Combined Ratings 52% 46% 2% Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos. Institutional Coverage 2% 3% 0% Private Client Coverage 0% 0% 0% Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 2% 3% 0% D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2009. All rights reserved. 11 Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria. Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends. Other Disclosures Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee, express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.